The Jon Sanchez Show
07/16-9 factors to consider when buying a rental property
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Yeah, a little bit of rotation going on, but yeah, hot all the way around for sure. Well, I know you pay a closer eye to it. I watched the bond market and interest rates, but let's go through the numbers. You know, this was just a phenomenal market all the way around, but I think it came out, you know, if I remember right, Corey, in the immediate session, in the opening, it was up 100+ points or something and just kept going from there. The Dow Jones finished up big winner, 742 points, 1.85% to $40,954. Do you ever think we'd say that, Corey? $40,954. Exactly. Yeah. Amazing. Yeah, the Nasdaq also not up as much, obviously, 37 points, 0.20 to 18,509, S&P 500 up 36 to 0.64, 0.64% to 5,667. I think Corey, you know, the culprit that I read was just, you know, just these great earnings that started out with the retail sales, you know, stronger than expected retail sales, which, you know, to me would have kind of maybe threw a wrench in this inflation going down idea, but apparently Wall Street loved it, the bond market loved it, and they were the actual big old goose egg versus the forecast of a -0.2%, excluding auto, you had a 0.4 actual increase versus a 0.1 forecast. So I mean, just, you know, the consumer is backspending again, right? You get this little indication that rates are going down and things like that. I mean, you know, people are, they're being resilient to say the least right now, almost as entire you're facing the headwinds of high interest rates, you know, inflation, food, you know, at the grocery store, gasoline, they're still spending. And again, on top of it, you probably did your Christmas shopping today. You had what, prime day today or something, but, you know, they're resilient, right? I mean, they're spending money, and in some cases, money they don't have on credit cards, but they're still spending. Well, and that is the American consumer, right? And so as long as the job market stays, you know, decent and everybody feels like they're not going to lose employment and have no future of losing employment, then they'll continue spending. You've got to remember you still have, and you know this, just as well as anybody else, you've got a ton of equity tied up in these houses. I think the number I read today was 30-something trillion. And so people are wealthy on paper. They feel wealthy. They've got a steady job. They're going to spend the biggest component you missed, though, was the small cap, the Russell. So it's been on a terrace since last Thursday. You get a little better inflation numbers. I believe it's up almost 13 percent this month, the Russell, because it's been languishing the last couple of years. And so you're starting to see all these high flyers, the magnificent seven, the NASDAQ. They are trading out of that and into the Dow components, the Russell, some of these small ones, because the theory is we are closer to a rate reduction now. There's 100 percent chance that it happens either at the September meeting or by the September meeting. And the theory on Wall Street is that's going to help these smaller companies in their debt load and make it easier on these mid-sized banks. And you've got to remember these markets look six to 12 months ahead. So you and I may not see it today, but they're looking well ahead of that in anticipation of what's coming in the next six to 12 months. Well, I didn't really follow the commentary yesterday. I think it was yesterday, Jerome Powell speaking. And I guess his indication was July is just way too soon for any rate reduction. But it seems to me, like you said, in our topic tonight, and John put it out as part of the tease was 100 percent probability of a September interest rate cut. Well, the problem is, is that you've got a July meeting, right? Which is the end of the month 30 at the 31st, then you have the all anticipated rate cut of September 18th of, you know, again, everybody's figuring a quarter point. But then you only have two left. You have November and December. And again, you know, we've talked about, you know, not looking political ball. Everything's political now, but, you know, not appearing to be political, but I just don't know that they can hold the stand back much longer without trying to provide some relief. And, you know, they've moved off that 2 percent inflation number now as we figured they would, you know, they're just kind of trying to, trying to keep it, I guess, realistic, more than idealistic, but, you know, 100 percent probability. I mean, I don't know if I've ever seen that on a Fed futures 100 percent probability for a September. I don't know what the July is. So to your point, here comes the euphoria. Here comes Wall Street. Here comes everybody on the auspices that, hey, here comes the rate cut. And hopefully there'll be, you know, several more after that. And I saw an article today that they're still talking about multiple rate cuts this year. So that would leave it open for either a November or a December rate cut as well if they do in September. Yeah. And I think they are in, I don't have the exact numbers, but I was looking at them before the show. I think the projection for a September cut was 96 percent. But the projection for a July cut was 4 percent. So that's where they're getting close to that 100 then by the end of the September meeting there will have been a rate cut and everybody's got to remember this isn't Jerome Pound the Fed telling you this. This is the bond market traders anticipating this through the futures contracts. So they could be wrong. They've been wrong before. You still have some numbers that need to come out between now and then. And take it to the bank. And the other thing that we saw when the rates were going up and now we'll see them when they start coming down is by the time that rate cut hits, if it does happen in September, the bond market will have already priced that in. So it's not one of those things where you have to say to yourself, I'm waiting till September then my mortgage rates will go down. That pricing will have already been in the market well before the actual act happens. So, you know, you and I talked last Thursday when the bond market that rates just plummeted when the inflation report came out and we chatted about, hey, lock in, lock in, I had a couple of clients that we make sure you share a test and say, call Dwight, get stuff locked in because, you know, these are good rates and I don't know that it's something you want to pass up in anticipation of better rates if you find something that makes sense just lock in and be happy. And that is a good sort of advice, Corey, is that if you're happy with what you've got because that knows it can turn as fast as it, you know, improved, probably faster so it is very important, which, you know, kind of probably then ties in kind of fittingly and perhaps through our topic tonight, which is, you know, it's a probability of 100% they're about for September interest rate cut should, this should spur an even stronger real estate market. And again, you and I are going to talk concept, we're going to talk, you know, our history and what we've seen. So, you know, is it now the time to start looking for that first or another rental property? Well, Corey, we can even say is it just time to even, you know, get off the fence and buy. What does it look like if we get into, you know, investment buying, what are we looking for or factors that we're looking for? So, I mean, you could actually broaden the scope of this discussion tonight, Corey, into what happens to the housing market if and when mortgage rates finally come down? You know, you and I kind of agree to a point on what we think might happen, but, you know, it's going to be a nice discussion for us to, you know, because there, you know, you could see a little different of an outcome, but, you know, we've always talked on this show. Be prepared if you're in the market to buy a home now or in the near future. And when I say near future, I'm even thinking within 12 months or less, right, Corey, and then that comes up pretty fast. You know, you ought to start getting your ducks in a row. You ought to start, you know, at least to an initial fly-by on a loan approval, maybe get set up with you on some, you know, hey, can you send me some things that come up, you know, or things like that, you know, just so you can be prepared. But this, we may be entering some territory, Corey, we haven't seen for a while, which would be nice and that would be what, you know, what happens if we start to see rates come down and what specifically are you looking for to buy your house or even your next rental or investment property? Exactly. Yeah. I mean, we get to the other detail then, you know, the only word of caution I would give you is sometimes when everybody thinks one thing will happen, you got to prepare yourself if the other thing actually happens. So just look at it from a little angle and we'll go into all those angles, you know, as we get through the show. Yeah. No, I mean, I'm looking forward to because this, you know, again, it is a little refreshing to talk about maybe interest rates coming down. I don't know if that's going to solve, and I know you're going to get into this in more detail. If it's going to solve all of our real estate woes that we're experiencing, it may just add to them. But again, for the consumer out there that's looking for a little relief, this would be a, you know, a welcome event in September. So looking forward, we'll cover the phenomenal market. I'm going to come back and we'll get into the commodities as well. But let's check in right now, and the right now traffic center with Kristen Snow. Hi, Kristen. How are you? Welcome back to the John Sanchez show on News Talk 780, KOH, filling in for the weather John Sanchez. I'm Dwight Milott of Guild Mortgage, Corey Edge of Ed 40,954 NASDAQ up 37.20% to 18, 509, and the S&P 500 up 36.64% to 56, 67. In the commodity market oil fell below into the $80 range per barrel on what I saw Corey was demand concerns across the globe. So that's, you know, any release of the pump is good for us. Gold up slightly 24, 70 an ounce. I read an article today also Corey that gold could just keep pushing through. So we'll see how gold doesn't in this upcoming markets. And then here we go, Corey, the 10 year treasury fell six basis points to 4.16 yield. Corey, we haven't been talking about this kind of number for a very, very long time. I pulled up all the different treasury yields and amazing enough where there's still some inversion going on, which is an unhealthy bond market when you get it inverted when the shorter term is paying more than a longer term. But you look at the five year Corey today at 4.07 and the 10 years at 4.16, that's not inverted finally, you know, but you get the two year, it's at 4.42 and the one year is at 4.83. So you still got a little ways to go, but much, much better than what we were facing earlier in the year and of last year. So you know, it's becoming a more healthier bond trading market, but you know, according to mortgage news daily today, Corey, up three basis points, 6.84% on a 30 year fix. Now again, I always like to say this is the top of the top. This is your AAA buyer, you know, 70 plus credit score, 20 plus percent down, you know, so the average guy is going to be probably just right inside of seven, maybe just slightly above seven, depending on the complete profile. But at least we're heading in, Corey wasn't too long ago, what, three months ago, four, maybe five months ago, we were talking, pushing eight again, you know. And so this is just fantastic news and everybody that I talked to is seeing an uptick in just activity, right? I don't know if it's converting to purchase contracts yet, but at least an uptick in activity because the news outlets jump on this kind of information. Absolutely. And it is good. I mean, you hear all the data about inflation and it's coming down and we've always talked about and we keep talking about on the show, even if you get one of these reports or inflation is it two or two point two or whatever, that's still added on top of what has happened over the last three years. So it is good to see some deflation in the mortgage rates, because that's an immediate savings that some of these home buyers can utilize, that it's just a lower their payment if the price stays the same and it's an immediate help and yes, it's higher than pandemic mortgage rates. But you're never going to see those again. So I think you're hopefully getting back into a normal range and you and John have been talking about it. But anywhere in that six percent, six and a half percent range, you know, we'd all love lower rates, but that feels probably about right about normal. Have to settle somewhere in that range. Yeah. I think there's more optimism than probably your realism. I think people are looking at the five and a quarter range as I talked to not to say that they're right, but you know, they're trying to get split the difference or get closer to that lower rates that we had. And you know, to your point, I mean, any relief is going to help you in the auto, you know, if you're buying a car, your note loans, your, you know, your home equity lines of credit. Like you said, there's instant savings, you know, I'd like to see the fuel prices come down somewhere. I'd like to see, I think that's what drove a lot of the prosperity during the Trump years was the oil was remember, we used to talk about it, you know, for you and I did a lot of the shows. Like remember, we were talking that, you know, man, $55 a barrel or whatever. And now, you know, so I'd like to see that come down a little bit and get some relief at the pump, but that'll probably come with an administration change. But hey, real quick, before we go to break, I want to talk about, did you see today, and I don't think I got a chance to send it over to you, the president Joe Biden released a legislative proposal today asking for a limit to rate hikes for large landlords at 5% for two years. Yep. I don't know if you saw that, obviously it's got long odds in Congress, but here we go again, you know, the government controlling and telling you what you can and cannot do to your own property. I mean, remember during the pandemic, you couldn't, you couldn't force the render to pay, you know, I mean, here we go, you know, I don't know if you saw it, but here's the effort to try to buy some votes in my opinion. No, I agree with you 100% it has a no chance of getting through any legal authority unless there's some craziness where they can sign an executive order, which, you know, I don't want to pretend like I know who can and who can't get those things done. But I do think, like you said, this is just a political thing, I see somebody's trailing in the polls and that person is throwing out some crazy amendments not only to change the Supreme Court, but not a capital rental rates around the country and all kinds of nutty stuff that, you know, uneducated people believe he can do, but he can't do it. I don't worry about it too much. Well, yeah, no, I, and, and, but you, to your point, they identified an area. This simple proposed legislation covers 20 million renters, roughly half of the nation of renters. So, I mean, that was a low line fruit to try to entice, you know, so, yeah, that's probably a court challenge that's just like the student loans and different things like that, which throws a lot of confusion into the world economic market by throwing this stuff around. Because now, you know, if you're a renter, you see this, you know, wait a minute, you know, I, you know, I, and again, it's talking, it's not talking about waiving rents right ahead. It's just talking about capping the, what you can raise the rents by. So, I, again, I, I, I agree, it's just another political showboat, I think, to try to win over, you know, some people on some voting blocks, but good luck there. And that just, that just adds more and more, you know, fear to the market and, you know, to, to maybe anybody looking at doing investors. So I don't think it's going to, I just saw it come across the wire before the show. So I think you're going to see more of that, don't you think you're going to see a little more, yeah, creative economics to try to, you know, push through some, some additional votes or some support. I think you'll see a lot of talking points. Obviously, Biden's got some issues, not only what he has to beat, you know, Mr. Trump in the election, but he's got to hold on to see if he's even going to be the candidate that runs for that party. But on the other side of that, you know, what they don't ever talk about is under this proposal, which again, I don't think has any legs to go anywhere, but let's just say it did. Under this proposal, if you and I own 51 units, now we are capped out at what we can increase rents and this and that. They never look at the other side of why these runs are increasing. Those landlords have inflation as well. Their costs are going up. So you're essentially vilifying the business owner, the small business owner that happens to be in the business of owning and renting apartments and it's probably taking a massive risk to do so and it's getting eaten away by all these inflation costs and you can't pass that cost on to your tenant or your customer. I don't know what other industry the government steps in and says you can't do that because that's unconstitutional, but they sure as I like to make landlords look like, you know, these evil, greedy villains when you know, really what they do is they're providing housing. So I don't know what the problem is with that. Well, they don't like the risk takers, Corey, but you know, just you're right, we'll see some more of this, but well, we appreciate you being with us tonight, covering in for John Sanchez. We'll get to our top. We'll get back to the bottom of the hour and what's turned over right now, the newsroom with Jack Saban on the latest. Hi, Jack. Welcome back to the John Sanchez show on New Tech 780, KOH, filling in for John who's under the weather tonight. Dwight Millard of Guild Mortgage, Corey edge of Edge Realty, phenomenal day in the market. Now Jones up 742, NASDAQ up 37 SP 500 up 36. If you missed the way that the tenure treasury was down six basis points to 4.16, but which put according to Marge news daily, the yield a 30 year fixed rate at 6.84%. All good stuff, Corey. So Corey, getting into our topic and the way that John had described this in his tease this morning was, you know, there's a hundred percent probability that the feds are going to cut the rates most likely by a quarter in September. I think it's September 18 to be exact. So with that, with the anticipation of that, you know, his topic carried into is it now a great time to buy your, you know, first rental or your follow up rental, but I want to expand that and just go, is it time to get really euphoric about this and what's going to happen in the market or rate our value is going to go up or inventory address, you know, those types of things. So, you know, I want to kind of go, you know, and get your Corey edge 30,000 foot view because you've been around doing this a long time, you know, kind of a what do you think, you know, might happen, might be the scenario, the likely outcome. And, you know, but the interest rates cut by the feds in purchasing your primary, a second home or an investment property, you know, based on an interest rate cut, when you look at the big topic items, Corey, like inventory, like new listings, like pending sales, you know, and current levels of pricing as we heard, you know, which we talked about last week, the mean home price in the Reno Sparks area, 600,000 sort of in Corey edge's world. What's the likely outcome if you start to see this in what you think that will be the cause and effect to the real estate market, locally and nationally? So, I think the entry, any reduction in the interest rates, you know, whether it's in September because of the Fed rate or whether it's priced into the market prior to September is a benefit of buyers. It saves a little bit of money, and it's impossible, you know, we've been talking about how many people are sitting on this invisible theoretical fence for a long time, and nobody really knows how many people are sitting on the fence if anybody's sitting there. So, you know, how many people are being held back from purchasing homes based solely on the interest rate being at 7% or 6 and 3/4 or whatever it is, and where does it need to go to get them to come off the fence and buy? But that's, I think the first part of it is a simple affordability. The other side of the affordability is obviously the price of the house. So, we've been talking for the last couple of years, it's not longer, but really the last couple of years, and I think we all agree that you have an inventory problem. You know, we've got, you know, in the last month and now we're up to two months, but for a long time we were down to one month supply of inventory, it's sometimes we were down to half a month supply of inventory, and what that did is it's a simple supply and demand equation. We have less things for people to purchase, but more people that want to purchase, or even the same amount of people that want to purchase, so that the price of that good is going to go up just because of the demand and the amount of people, and I think that's what's happening, and I, you know, who knows, only look back on this a decade or two decades from now available to see what really happened, I suppose, but that seems to be the consensus that a low inventory is leading to high prices because there's more buyers than houses in theory, and we're going to see bidding wars, which we're seeing in this market right now, and I'm going to push those prices up. So that's what's leading to the low inventory, again, if you go back to what everybody thinks, is what they're referring to as gold and handcuffs, you have a decent amount of homeowners that locked in low mortgage rates in the two to three percent range back during the pandemic, and there is no reason for them to move. A, don't be more expensive, B, a lot of them couldn't afford to move because of where the prices are, and it would be a jump and interest rate. If you're going to double your interest rate and increase your price, it becomes an affordability thing. So when I look at all that, I think, okay, you know, the common theory, which is, might be correct, is that if I bring the cost of the mortgage down, a lot of these buyers are going to come in, if the inventory level stays the same, then yes, you're going to have this healthy market helping the eyes of a seller that is going to solidify these prices or push them up. On the other side of that, to me when I look at it, if these interest rates do come down, you're going to start unlocking some of these golden handcuffs and let these people come off the sidelines and start moving, and most of them, in order to move, will have to put their house on the market in order to get their hands on the trillions of dollars and locked up equity. So if you start seeing a decent size amount of home sellers across the country, but their houses on the market, you're going to start ratcheting up that inventory, which will have an inverse effect on the pricing and start pushing prices down, because there's going to be more to choose from. I don't think it's going to be catastrophic. You're starting to see it in the market already. If you read reports from, you know, sparks or even anywhere across the nation, I think the report you sent me before the show said 31% of existing resale homes on the market right now have reduced their price from its original price, and that was the largest, you know, overall price reduction statistic in the history of them taking that report. So you're starting to already see it, and that makes more sense to me that you're going to have more people into the market, it's going to be cheaper to buy, but that's also going to bring inventory on the market from the people that have been sitting. You know, again, nothing catastrophic, but I wouldn't count on another 10% increase in prices or 20% increase in prices, and I know they just sit with that. Yeah. Well, and let's remind the audience, what is that? What is a healthy balance market for the six months or six months inventory balance market by definition is six months worth of inventory. Okay. And we haven't seen that, you know, I don't remember the last time we saw that, but to your point, I'm not so sure that a quarter point in the federal funds rate is going to make a whole lot of difference, at least on the first cut, right? I mean, you know, you know, it's a positive sign in the right direction because we've been struggling for so long when they started to go up, but you know, to your point, and I agree with you, I think there's this big a chance that you'll start to see people moving around because they'll trade off that low interest rate that they have basically free money. If you got inside a 3%, you got free money with the cost of living, right? I mean, that's what you got. So people are having a tough time, but they do want to move around. So there will be a point, and I don't know what that point will be where you'll start to see people move off of that, but it'll be interesting to see, you know, kind of the commentary in July and September. I mean, you know, so, you know, again, I just want to expand this out from John's, you know, radio teases that there are specific things, and I want to cover these, Corey, when we get back from our final break, but there are specific things as you look at this, it applies to whether you're buying an investment property, a, you know, a second home, or even your primary, you know, these are things that you want to be aware of, and you want to be watching the market trends. So this is all, I believe, positive. You know, I still think you have, you know, one thing we're not, you know, talking enough about is you have two distinct monetary policies from these two candidates for president, right? I mean, you've got one that will spend till oblivion and beyond, and one that has a more business sense approach, and this, the outcome or the way that the trajectory of this election looks like it's going to go, may start to unwind some of what, you know, people have been holding back on if it goes one particular way or the other, don't you agree? No, I do agree, and I think you're starting to see little tidbits of it already, just from, you know, what happened last weekend, and kind of the projection of who's going to win, the odds of who's going to win, you're starting to see a little bit of that already. Yeah, yeah, well, and I think, I think that the, the, the monetary polls, these, the fiscal polls are so, so different. You can't spend what you don't have, right? You just can't, you can't spend $4 trillion in collecting, you just can't do it. And so, you know, we're on the wrong course. So we'll see. We'll see. We've got November around the corner. So we'll see. But we appreciate you being with us on this Tuesday night. Let's check in for the final time. The night now traffic center with Kristin Snow. Welcome back to the John Sanchez show on News Talk 780, KOH filling in for John tonight. This is Dwight Mallard of Guild Mortgage, Corey Edge of Edge Realty. We had a little difficulty waiting for Corey to come back on. If you missed her earlier segment, the Dow Jones are amazing today. Up 742 points, the NASDAQ up 37 S and P up 36. Corey and I were covering, you know, what if, what to expect if interest rates are to start being cut in September, September 18th to be exact. And we were going through the likelihood of two possibilities. One is that it would allow people who have been the golden handcuffed and locked in their house because of their low interest rate and will free them up to go ahead and list their home and make the move, which would add to the inventory. Or the other thing would be is it just is not enough to release the golden handcuffs and you get more buyers come into the market because they want the lower interest rates and just adds more demand to an already low supply. So that those are probably the two likely will know more. And then we, as we are heading into break, we talked about the political element of it. You've got two distinct fiscal monetary policies from each candidate, so that will have an effect as well. Corey, do I have you back? No, I guess I don't. Okay, I guess I don't have Corey back, so I'll fly solo on this. But when you're looking at this, the final element, things to consider when you start to how to prepare for the possibility of these interest rates, you're going to see it all over the media. You're going to see all sorts of commentary and things like that. Don't get too crazy about, talk to your professionals, talk to your realtor, talk to your mortgage guy and see exactly where they are. Corey, do I have you back? Well, anyhow, this is good news that we're going to be looking at these interest rates. Get be prepared. Have your plan in place, whether you're buying an investment, your first home, another investment property or second home. Just know your plan, be pre-qualified so that when the time is ready, you're ready to execute that offer and acceptance. So I appreciate you being with us tonight. This is the John Sanchez Show on News Talk 7A, KOH, Dwight Millard filling in and we expect John back tomorrow or a speedy recovery. Thanks again, God bless and good night. This program was sponsored by Sanchez Wealth Management. The material in this program was intended as general information only and should not be taking a specific investment tax or legal advice. None of the information on this broadcast was intended to be a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Further information is available by contacting John at Sanchezwealthmanagement.com or 775-800-1801. John Sanchez offers securities and advisory services through Independent Financial Group LLC, a registered broker, dealer and investment advisor. Member FINRA SIPC, securities only offered in states John Sanchez is registered in. Sanchez Wealth Management LLC and Independent Financial Group LLC are unaffiliated entities. Dwight Millard is not associated with Sanchez Wealth Management LLC or Independent Financial Group LLC. Dwight Millard, co-host, NMLS number 241259. Guild Mortgage Company Equal Housing Opportunity, NMLS number 3274, Dwight Millard, NMLS number 241259. Anthony Mortgage Company number 1141, branch address 5370 Kitzie Lane Suite 101 and 103 Reno, Nevada 89511, phone number 9723812410. The information provided today is for educational purposes only. 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