The Jon Sanchez Show

7/9- Northern Nevada’s June Housing Data

A change is beginning to occur within our local housing market based upon the June data we just received. Join us when we look deep into the data and discuss our new median price, the number of new listings, our active inventory, our months’ supply of inventory and much more, all to help you make informed buying and selling decisions.

Duration:: 35m
Broadcast on:: 10 Jul 2024
Audio Format:: mp3

This summer, saddle up with the only sports book where you can bet on horse racing. FanDuel! Right now, new customers can get a No Sweat first bet up to $500. Just download the app or go to fanduel.com/horses to score your No Sweat bet up to $500. 21+ in present in Colorado. Offer valid on first real money wager of $5 or more. Verify FD Racing account required. Bonus issued and non-withdrawable racing site credit that expires seven days after issuance. Max refund $500. Restrictions apply. See terms at racing.fanduel.com. Gambling problem, call 1-800-Gambler. Good Tuesday evening to you. Welcome to the John Sanchez Show on Newstalk 780. Can't wait! It's a pleasure to be with you and a pleasure to be with my co-host. Around the horn, we shall travel. We will start with the big C. Corey Edge of Edge Realty. How you doing, my friend? I'm doing great. How are you doing? Not too shabby at all. I've got to wait before I say this. Let's introduce Dwight, because he is the best one at saying this. Dwight and Lard, guild mortgage. What kind of day was it, Dwight? Another record-setting day. Oh, we're going to regret doing this, Dwight, because every time we get on one of these rolls and I have you do this, that usually is a sign of a market top. So, let's hope we can break that trend, huh? I think everybody is going to like the rates too when we get to that, too. Good, good. I'm going to come together a little bit, yeah. Absolutely, absolutely. Good deal. Glad to hear that. Way to start with some optimistic news on the program. Alrighty, fellas, let me tell everybody what we have lined up. This is one of my favorite shows we get to do each and every month, and that is when the boys get to share with us their incredible knowledge about our local real estate market. That's right. We get to go through the renal sparks information, the medium price, the number of closed sales, the median days to contract, price per foot, new listings, active inventory, a month's supply of inventory, all of that. But the most important thing that I know I take away from when we get to do this report is Corey's Insight, Dwight's Insight, because there's nothing better is these two hard-working men deep into the trenches each and every day. Anybody can read these reports, but it's the insight that they give us. Now, guys, I want to, and I apologize, I did not chance to send this to you because I kind of hesitated whether I even wanted to bring this up, but I'm going to do it anyways because I think it's very important that we share with the audience what we see going on. And as we get into this report today, you know, for the month of June of our local real estate data, you know, basically what you're going to find is there is some slowing going on. There's no doubt about it. Corey's indicated that, you know, he's seen sign of it, same with Dwight, and so no big deal. But guys, I want to share with you, when I, after I get down with my stock update, I want to share with you an email that I received. And this is, this is from a, an investing journal that I receive. It's called The Wealth Advisors. Boy, familiar name, right? Anyways, in, in, you know, just a bunch of industry news and stuff, but there was a, there was an article that, that was written by a, an analyst by the name of Chris Vroomillion of what's, his company is called The Technical Traders. And I, I just want to tell everybody, I've never heard of this gentleman. I don't know how good he is at predicting the market or bad or anything else, but Corey, he brought up a lot of interesting bits of information that I wanted to share with you. And the bottom line of what the article is talking about is he is predicting some very steep price declines, matter of fact, corrections in both residential and commercial properties over the next couple of years. He's talking, according to their data, predicting prices could plunge both 30% or 30% in both commercial and residential real estate. So I, after I do my stock market recap, which isn't going to take me long, was kind of a lot of cluster day. I want to go through this again by no means are we saying this is going to happen. It is one person's expectation. This was an article or interview I should say that he did with Business Insider. And, and Corey, like I said, I just got it. I apologize about 10 minutes before the show started. And I didn't get a chance to send it to you guys. So I know you, you have not seen it, but you know the data. And I, I really, after I read this, the first thing I'm thinking is, all right, I want to hear it from my two experts and the audience's experts meeting you two guys and see if you agree with this analyst. Sound fair? Absolutely. Okay, perfect. All right. Well, let me get to the stock market side. We'll get that out of the way, then I want to get to this article, then our local data. So today was a day where, you know, you always get worried when, when Chairman Powell has any type of testimony to give. For those of you that were, you know, around the market or have been around the market as long as I have, you remember what this used to be called used to be called the Humphrey Hawkins Testimony. And this is when the Fed Chair spends one day in front of the Senate Banking Committee, and then the next day in front of the House Financial Services Committee. And basically, he starts the comments, you know, with, you know, 15 minutes or so prepared text. And then the floor is opened up to, you know, in today's case, it was the Senate Banking Committee. The floor is open up to the senators who get to grill him about everything. And as I, as I joke before, I forget guys, as I joked on my stock update this morning with Ross, when the interviews or the testimony was going on, if you want some really, really good entertainment, I'm going to go back and listen to it tonight. When I lay down and go to bed, go to YouTube, bring up the Senate Banking Committee hearing today. And fast forward, I think, let's see, it started at seven. I'm going to say it was probably all between seven 38 o'clock. So let's call it 30 to 60 minutes into the interview when, or testimony, when he got interviewed and grilled, and I mean grilled by Elizabeth Warren. Corey, did you happen to see that? Because I know you usually watch these. Did you see that, that when she came on? I was listening the whole time, heading to an appointment as soon as I got to my appointment. Oh, just started. Oh, my guys. Yeah. Okay. All right. Well, do the save. It was what I'm saying. Listen to it or watch it tonight. You know, as I said to Ross this morning, guys, I said this, it reminded me of a mother scolding her son. And I got a hand to Mr. Powell to sit there and keep his mouth closed because you knew what he was thinking in his mind. And we can't repeat probably what was going through his mind on the radio show. But she grilled him mainly about the banking industry. And she she went back and and and and gave some quotes of some testimony he gave. I think it was back in 2018 or so when he was basically made comments that look at the banking system is in really good shape. And and you know, essentially what he was saying was the CEOs and the banks can regulate themselves because she had brought up some issues back then in regards to look at, you know, Mr. Powell, you need to regulate these bank CEOs and the big fat pay packages that they get because it is an incentive for them to be reckless and run the Wild West with depositors money and so on and so forth. And basically what you said, Mr. Powell was look at, you know, these basically these guys can handle themselves. And so she brought that up and then she started asking him questions. And it was, Corey, it was like an attorney leading a client, right attorneys never ask a question unless they know the answer. And she knew the answer to three questions in regards to bank capitalization, etc. And he did not have the answers. He didn't recall saying this. She goes, well, you want me to go to your testimony? It's right here on page blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And that's how this this grilling session went. And he was I've never seen this before with him. He was literally backed into a corner and didn't know what to say or he knew what he wanted to say, but he couldn't say it in a in a public forum like that. But that was to me the highlight of today when when Powell gave this testimony in front of the Senate banking committee. So again, good, good bedtime reading material or watching material tonight, if you have nothing to do, pull up that YouTube of Senator Warren grilling Chairman Powell in the Senate banking committee hearings today. So yeah, I was sorry you went into that appointment, Corey, it was it was a good interview or good, good, good grilling, I should say. And you know, I can't stand, you know, Elizabeth Warren for various reasons. But let me tell you, she this woman was on fire day. You all have seen that you've seen it. Do I, you know, when she gets on fire and she's in one of these hearings like this, man, oh man, she is a absolute bulldog and you know, the hair is raised up on the back of her neck and she's just looking at you with her eyes, you know, her glasses halfway down her nose and she's looking at Powell and just nailing him, just nailing him. And again, not that he did anything wrong, but she made them look really bad, unfortunately, really, really bad. Well, you know, and John, the hypocrisy, right? Well, I mean, the government spending more money than it can even possibly. I mean, I just can't, you know, I wish I would, I'm going to go watch it because I can't stand her either. You know, I mean, she has always been after the banks, right? Always, always. She's up to capitalism, you know. Yeah, yeah. And so yeah, what responsibility do you, the Senate and the House have on this atrocious ending? Sure, right. It's really, but you're right, to this point, to your point, you've probably sitting there and there's so much you want to say. Oh, he literally was biting his lip, Dwight. He was literally biting his lip. Yeah. Yeah, good stuff. But that was, again, the reason I'm bringing this up, this was kind of the highlight of the day. We didn't have any real major, well, actually, no major economic reports, whatsoever. And so everyone's glued into the TV watching Mr. Powell's testimony. The biggest takeaway from it, again, there were absolutely no surprises in his roughly two hours of testimony today. But he did acknowledge that, quote, the likely the next direction of the policy move is going to be loosening of the policy indicating a rate hike is not likely. Well, we've heard that before in some of the Fed minutes, we've heard it in his press conferences after the FOMC decisions, et cetera. So that wasn't, again, much of a surprise at all. Yeah, I'd say the other takeaway I had from watching the interview was he, you know, indicated that the labor market is still strong, but it's weakening a little bit. The housing market is weakening a little bit and so on and so forth. And so we, you know, we really didn't see much of a reaction. And like I said, it was a record setting day, or Dwight said a record setting day for the NASDAQ and the S&P. NASDAQ finished up just 25 points, faded off the highs, 18, 429 was our close. Just a four point rise on the S&P 500 finished at 55, 76, again, a record close. And we lost 53 on the Dow to 38,291. Now guys, Corey, let's start with you on this. And then I'm going to ask the same question of Dwight. We got a big focus this week. We have three major things that are going to unfold later in the week. Thursday, we're going to have the release of CPI. Friday is going to be the release of PPI. And then Friday is also going to be the kickoff of second quarter earnings season. Well, we'll get the likes of JP Morgan Wells Fargo and a few of the other major financials with the earnings releases. Corey, let's start with you. Well, actually, you know what, let's think about that for a second. Let's go to break it. I want to come back and get your opinion on where you think the inflationary numbers are going to come in and kind of the kickoff to this earnings season. Then Dwight will get your opinion. Then we'll get into our topic this evening, that article I want to share with you. I'll email it to you guys actually during the break here. See what I'm talking about. Ms. Kristin Snow, how are you doing in the right now? Traffic's into this fine evening. Welcome back to the John Sancho showing this talk. 780k OH with Dwight Mallard of Guild Mortgage, Corridge of Ed Drility. We've finished down 53 gain of 26 on the Dow and a rise of four on the S&P. Once again, if you just joined us, record closes again. I think this was the 36th record close of 2024 for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ again, a record finish there. All right, let's hit the commodities and we'll go to this article that this analyst is predicting a real estate crash. To the commodity side of things, we will go to oil, a 1% loss today to $81.48 a barrel, small gaining gold at $4.40, $2,367.90 an ounce. In Mr. Mallard of your world, a three basis point increase on the 10-year treasury to a finish of 4.3%. How did we do? He said he had us some good news on the 30-year mortgage. Yeah, so what I'm looking at is the 30-year fixed accordion mortgage use daily is at 7.01. So I think John will be flirting with inside his 70s, next couple of days. So we haven't seen that in a while. The articles I'm reading is that rates have barely budged, but that's going to change soon based upon the economic data you just shared before break. It's coming out next week. You're going to see the market move off this data, I'm sure. I'm hoping we go inside the seven versus above it, but that's your job there to tell us. Yeah, there you go. Thanks. I appreciate that. Let's hit the street. Yeah, let's hit the street's prediction. Again, Thursday is going to be CPI. Now, prior reported for Remember, when we got Mays data, we were unchanged. Big goose egg there. They are anticipating just a 1/10th of a percent increase in CPI for the month of June. And then on Friday, again, it's going to be the PPI data. Again, both of those reports will be at 5.30. So don't miss my stock update at 5.53, and I'll give you all the news on that. The PPI in the month of May, we were down 2/10th of a percent. Remember what a big surprise that was. Wall Street's predictions now are a 1/10th of a percent increase in the month of June. So bottom line, not a huge move, but both of those numbers slightly going up a bit compared to the previous month. So we will see what happens there. Corey, real quick, how are you looking as far as CPI, PPI affecting real estate, et cetera? I don't know how much it will affect it. We'll see if the numbers hold true. I think what kind of gets forgotten in all this, even if you're unchanged or down the 10th or up the 10th or whatever, you still got this massive rise in the cost of goods over the past four years that, if we can get back to the magic 2%, it's still an incredible burden for the normal person. So I guess it's a good headline, and the president can run on it, but it doesn't solve the problem of affordability in all assets, really. Corey, you bring up an excellent point as always. I apologize, his first name is escaping me. Senator Scott, he was actually interviewed on CNBC before the testimony began, and he led the testimony today with Chairman Powell. He brought that up exactly, Corey, where he went through a number of litany tests and saying, "Look, this is up 10%, this is up 15%, all these different components of the economy." And overall, saying, "Look, inflation is up 23% from basically the beginning of the pandemic till now," and exactly to your point. You will learn some of our data tonight. The dollar, as we all know, is not being stretched nearly as far as it used to, and many families are beginning to struggle with this. There's no doubt about it. So we will see, of course, what that information holds on Friday and Thursday. But in the meantime, let's share with you just a little bit of a prediction. And again, I have never heard of this analyst. I was looking him up during the break. His name is Chris Verumullian. He's founder of the Technical Traders. So they're kind of a newsletter company. He's been around a long time, a pretty active trader, that type of thing. But he did an interview with Business Insider, which is very closely watched, and really called for some harsh corrections in the real estate market. So guys, let me take just a moment. Let me read this article because it's not long, but there's a lot of great information that I want to come back and get both of your opinions to see if this guy's office rocker. You agree with some of the things he's saying. But our job is, again, just make sure that everybody starts to hear the different opinions that are out there. So here's what Mr. Verumullian had to say. He said, America's property value is due for correction, according to Mr. Verumullian, founder of the Technical Trader. He forecast a steep price correction in both residential and commercial properties, predicting prices could plunge about 30% in both markets. "People are going to have to start selling their homes," he told Business Insider. "What we're starting to see is people realizing they cannot afford the mortgages or need to downgrade. A lot of people are struggling financially, and this is really the tip of the iceberg. Give it another two or three years, that's when the real estate market gets hit the most." Verumullian's forecast is among the more dire sounded by real estate commentators recently. While most observers expect home prices to stay elevated in the near term or medium term, he notes a weak backdrop for the US economy that could significantly impact consumers, especially mortgage holders. Americans are already showing signs of weakness. Retail sales have unexpectedly been soft for the past two months, with purchases rising just one-tenth of a percent in May, according to the Census Bureau data. Verumullian believes that this implies weakening corporate profits, potentially leading to more layoffs or reduced hours as businesses trim costs to satisfy shareholders. LAYOFFs surge at the start of the year with job cut announcements rising 136% in January, according to Challenger, Gray and Christmas. Verumullian predicts unemployment could peak around 5-6%, which is in line with other economic forecasts. "People are starting to get laid off as unemployment rises. People have burned through their savings and inflation is much higher. Eventually, people are going to not be able to pay their mortgages. Most US mortgages are 30-year fixed, with many locked in at lower rates from several years ago. However, Verumullian cautions that Americans tend to stretch themselves too thin when purchasing homes, meaning some borrowers could eventually buckle financially as unemployment increases." We've said this all along. Residential foreclosures rose 3% in the month of May, according to data from Adam. Verumullian expects foreclosures to continue climbing for the next two to three years as Americans become increasingly financially burdened. The fallout in the commercial real estate sector could be even more severe. Bloomberg reports that the sector has over $900 billion in debt maturing this year, which will need refinancing at higher rates and potentially lower property values. Commercial foreclosures surged 117% in March on an annualized basis. Verumullian predicts the federal eventually lower rates as the economy tips into a recession. However, he expects banks to be more hesitant to lend due to significant losses in their mortgage and commercial real estate portfolios weighing on demand and causing real estate prices to plunge. He anticipates a 30% correction in real estate, though he knows that some areas could see up to a 50% drop. He estimates it could take seven to ten years for the market to recover from these losses due to the long nature of real estate cycles. He said, "The price of real estate has doubled or tripled in the last couple years. It's pretty wild. Usually when an asset goes up that quickly, it comes back and corrects. It's going to be an incredible opportunity for those that can identify the bottom." Despite Verumullian's predictions, most real estate veterans do not expect a crash in the real estate housing market. The National Association of Realtors previously stated that the U.S. housing market is so short on inventory that it could take at least three to four years for supply and demand to balance out with low supply keeping the floor under home prices for the foreseeable future. We'll get the guys' opinion on what Mr. Verumullian had to say when we come back and then we'll get into our local real estate data. First, let's turn it to Greg Neff, who's got news, traffic, and weather. Hey, Greg. Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on Newstalk 780K, which is the Coriage of Edge Realty, Dwight Mallard of Guild Mortgage. All right, a couple of housekeeping notes. First one, this is a reminder. If you've missed any of our shows, please pick up our podcast. You can find it at your favorite podcast distributor, iTunes, Spotify, etc. It's still easy, especially if you have an iPhone, which according to our stats, about 98% of you listen to the podcast over your iPhone. If you've never done it before, you got the purple icon that says podcast on your iPhone, on your homepage. Click on that and hit the search button, the John Sanchez Show. Remember, my first name is spelled J-O-N, and there's hundreds of podcasts on there from us. Hundreds of them. There's years of them on there. So all the great topics that we try to cover for you each and every night, you can find it right on iTunes or like I said, Spotify, Google, all over the place. But love for you to pick up some of those past shows that we have done. We try to cover a lot of great information, as you know. Second half is keeping note. Don't forget, as we said last night, the boys weren't on, so you can hear it from them. The big announcement of boys I made last night, August the 5th, we are moving to 3 p.m. You guys excited? You guys excited? Are you? Are you? Absolutely. That's right. That's right. That's right. Exactly. Exactly. Now, we're all very excited about it, and again, Greg jumped on the air with us with Jason and I last night, and again, we want to thank him for swapping his great shows moving to five o'clock, and again, we're going from three to four, or excuse me, this show's going to... Wait a minute, Greg, jump on here. That's a good question. We're going three to four. You're going to go from four to six. Okay. Perfect. It didn't click in my mind. I was like, wait a minute here. What about the four to five? That's right. You have a great two hour shows. Somehow, the mouth didn't make sense. Yes. Thank you. That's right. That's right. That's right. Exactly. So, yeah, that'll be again, happening on August the 5th. So, set your calendar to join us then, and then just keep the dial right here on Newstalk 780KOH for Reno Talks Live with Greg Neff, and that'll be a great show right after us, of course. All right, boys. Now, what do you guys think about again, this article with this gentleman, Chris, and founder of the Technical Traders, in his opinion on the real estate market? Corey, let's start with you. 30% correction. He's calling for both residential and commercial. Way out of whack, in line with your predictions. What do you think? You know, I certainly don't disagree with this premise. I don't know if you'll get to a 30% chasm. But, you know, when we get into our report tonight, one of the reports I send you guys is just the median price, and it goes back to January 14th, or 2014, I'm sorry, January or 2014. So, you can see the trajectory of it. When I don't print it out, and I just have it on my screen, let's me toggle back all the way to January 2014 to see what the median price was on any given date. So, the price we have today is 50% higher than the price it was in June of 2019, to give you an idea. And the reason I bring that up is because when somebody predicts a 30% drop or 20% drop, I mean, really, if you look at these graphs, you're just getting back into a normal kind of bar graph, or a graph market, we've kind of overextended ourselves when we come back down. So, you know, does that mean it's going to happen? No. But sometimes these things tend to, you know, overheat themselves, then overcorrect themselves, then get back on the normal path that they would have not had things not going to end up first. Corey, that has an excellent point you bring up. Let's go back to your graph even further, and we apologize again. You guys can't see this, but one of the graphs Corey provided, again, the historical median price, which, as we'll tell you here in a moment, we're now at 600,000 as our median price here in northern Vatarino sparks. But according to Corey's chart, we go back to what is that? Corey January of 2014. It looks like the median at that point, about 225,000, if I'm reading the chart correctly. So 225,000 in 2014, here we are 10 years later, and now it's 600,000. So, according to my math, that's about 150% increase. So, yeah, to your point, okay, 30% correction. So, let's just say, from here, we're down 180. We're still a long ways ahead. So, yeah, very, very interesting stat there, Corey. Now, Dwight, of course, they're blaming the mortgage side of things, saying, look at people starting to lose their jobs. I saw a stat the other day, guys. I was blown away because I forgot about this. Don't hold me to the exact number, but this is an approximation that the tech industry has laid off 500,000 people since the beginning of this year. I knew the laughs were big. Remember that? At the beginning of the year, you had meta and Amazon, and all these really laid off a lot of people? Yeah, it's north of 500,000 now. But, you know, again, we're seeing we saw unemployment kick up just a little bit. I mean, we're still historically low where we have 4.1, I think, if I remember, right? But, you know, so we're still historically very low. But, you know, Dwight, you deal with a consumer, obviously, on the financing side of things, being the great lender that you are. What do you see? Do you agree with Christopher Million that the consumer's starting to crack a little bit? Well, you always blame the lender. Remember that, right? Yeah, of course. But I'm with Corey. You know, I like his. I like what he's justifying an offer. I don't know if we'll get to that point, but there's a couple things, John. I am seeing as I'm out and driving around every day, I'm seeing more and more houses come on the market, right? You drive down one street and there wouldn't be any. Now, there's two or three. But what makes me nervous about this article is one is we've talked about this almost the one trillion in commercial loans, right? You've always said if it's a four-legged chair and one goes, it's a chair falls. But you are starting to see, so you're seeing increased debt. You are seeing a little bit of changes and tightening of products. And it's starting to crack in the HELOCs. Remember where the HELOCs dried up real fast in 2002? I'm not saying we're there, but these are just little things. A little bit, John. A 49% debt to income ratio on your gross income, no matter if you're making 10,000 a month or 100,000 a month is putting you right on the edge. And everybody's on that edge. Everybody's on that. I don't do many loans. I mean, you do some. I don't want to be, but you know, 42, 38, but most people are pushing their purchasing power to that 49. Interesting point. No matter what their income level is. Yeah. It doesn't matter. There are 49 of your income growth. Let's keep going on that. Yeah, it's gross. Good point. Good point. I am in fact, anything else. I don't look at insurance premiums. I don't look at anything. So people to Corey's point earlier are feeling the pain in everything, right? Okay. So that everything transfers down to this too. All right. Stay with me. Dwight, because I'm going to ask you this, then I'm going to ask again, the same thing to Corey. Again, according to Bloomberg, according to this article, $900 billion of commercial loans are going to need to be refinanced at the end of this year or by the end of this year. So let's just round it up with the heck a trillion dollars roughly. Obviously, they're not going to be able to refinance at the rates they were. Number one, number two, as we all know, you know, Dwight, when you, if you were doing commercial lending, you know, you got to get the appraisal done and appraisal for commercial. Remember, folks is completely different than residential. Most of it's based upon cash flow, right? Well, if you're office building, for example, which I'm sure is going to be the majority of this almost a billion dollar or trillion dollars, you got 30, I think the average now is around 33, 35% vacancy rate in office buildings around the country. So you don't have the cash flow. Therefore, the appraisal is not going to come in. And here we go with the house of cards. So Dwight, as a lender, what do you do right now? Corey is a real estate broker. What do you do? Do I start with you? I think you look at your short term objectives right now. If you're happy with your house and Corey's always said, no, no, no, commercial, focused on, no, oh, no, no, commercial. Yeah, because that can impact the residential. Yeah, yeah. Boy, I don't know, start looking at refinancing, don't wait, right? Start doing it now. So I'm sure they're trying. Just count rents if you have to. I don't know what that they're going to do. That's just the, that's a tough one that's going to be, you know, Corey's probably got a better inset. I don't know what I mean. Corey, what's the solution for the commercial mortgage holder out there right now? It's got their note coming due this year. Well, there is no solution. If you don't have a personal guarantee, chances are you're going to walk away from it. And there, there is distress in the market. I mean, I, I've told you the last couple of weeks, we're looking at distress deals now in the commercial market here locally. So first thing, locally, I can't imagine what's going on in the country. And remember, most commercial loans, a lot of them, most of them don't have personal guarantees, some do, but if they don't, then we'll just turn them away. And that's where you're going to see pressure from the banks on the balance sheets. Then you get the right now, let's stop right there, Corey. Let's stop right there real quick, keep your train of thought. Let's remind everybody how this, how this game works, right? So John Doe walk, he doesn't have a personal guarantee on his, you know, whatever, $10 million commercial loan with pick a small one. He walks away. The bank is stuck with that asset. The bank then, you know, tries to auction it off after they perform the foreclosure, which remember foreclosures much easier on commercial folks than it is residential in most states. So the John Doe walks away. The bank has it on their balance sheet. Well, as we all know, Dwight, you know, you, especially, you look at a lot of balance sheets, guess what? If you're XYZ financial institution and you start getting a bunch of these, guess what? Now you're going to have to come to Wall Street in your analyst call and say, we're going to reduce our earnings per share by whatever, let's say $2 a share. And therefore, soon as that news hits, then that financial institution stock price is going to fall or if not plummet. And then that starts the cascading effect in the financial sector and, you know, let your imagination wonder, we've covered this enough, right? And John, we've said this, you could step on one or two ants. You can't step on the entire ant hill. That's the good of the problem. Do you have some good analogies tonight, by the way, listening to the testimony today and listening to kind of what the Fed's plan is, if you get into these situations, a one time interest rate reduction of a quarter point is not going to help out. Spent in the wind, it's too late for these people to start thinking about refinancing that, that time was two years ago, it's over at that point. So it will be interesting how they work this out. And you know, I do see a lot of clients and I talked to a lot of different people that are just friends of mine. And you know, all their theoretical wealth is tied in that house. The rest of the budget is super tight. So at some point, they're going to have to go to that house to continue living. And so the article, there's some, there's some truth, a lot of truth in that article just depends on what it's going to be 30% or less. Right, exactly. And you know, again, what goes up real fast, as he says, can come down real fast and to your point, Corey, 30% in historical terms is not that much. Now tell that to somebody that just suffered a 30% decline, they're going to say, man, that hurt. But yeah, not the end of the world. But again, we have to watch this. So great, I'm glad you guys agree with some of these points on the article. Again, we're just letting everybody kind of see a little bit into the crystal ball. All right, we come back, we're going to hustle and get through our local data. But first, Kristin Snow is going to wrap us up in the right now traffic center. Hey, Kristin, welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on new stock 780KOH. Mr. Ed, your phone number, sir. 6736700. Mr. Mallard, 2402022. Thank you, fellas. All right, let's get to the report, guys. Corey, medium price, 600,000 up 1.7% month over month, 4.3% year over year. Yeah, and then basically unchanged from last month. And I've been following you for a couple months. And so I'll say it again, the peak of this market on an annual basis is usually right on 4th of July, which we just had. So I wouldn't anticipate too much further from here. And then we'll kind of start gliding down into the holiday season. Beautiful. Close sales down 8.4% month over month at 405 year over year, down 9.8. Yeah, and that's kind of the same thing Dwight alluded to you and I chatted about, you're seeing more price reductions, you're seeing open houses, you're getting some more inventory on the market. So to me, I kind of put it up to, it's been a long year already, even though we're only halfway through the market on both sides and so people are kind of like, let's take a rush. All right, no need to discuss median days to contract 15. That's up 50% list price 99.5 new listings, Corey 562 down 14.3% month over month down 2.4% year over year. Yeah, so that could be something that kind of spurs the price because if you're down 15% if we do that again next month in the month after then it's just going to continue to limit that inventory. So that that's kind of one to watch. I'll tell you how the holidays are going to. Okay, active inventory 895 up 11.6% month over month up 13.7% year over year. Yeah, that's what's leading to a little bit of slowdown. They're just not eating through the current inventory as much which also leads to the month's supply of being up 22%. There you go. Yeah, month's supply of inventory. We're now at 2.2 months. Remember, we were at 1.5 and even lower not long ago. Again, the Corey's point up 22% month over month, up 26.1% year over year. Yeah. And so we'll see. But again, I think this is seasonal for now. Okay. We'll see if it changes into something different. Okay. Excellent. Excellent. Do I wrap this up? Yeah, I don't, there's a little crack but it's still a good solid report and there's still lots of buyers out there with low inventory. So keep it up. There you go. Yep. And as Diana Olik on CNBC said this morning when she went through the real estate report, all we need is sub 7% mortgage and the floodgates will open. God bless, great job guys. That was a lot of fun. We'll see you tomorrow night on the John Sanchez Show. Take care. This program was sponsored by Sanchez Wealth Management. The material in this program was intended as general information only and should not be taken as specific investment tax or legal advice. None of the information on this broadcast was intended to be a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Further information is available by contacting John at Sanchez Wealth Management dot com, which is 775-80101. John Sanchez offers securities and advisory services through independent financial group LLC, a registered broker dealer and investment advisor. Member FINRA SIPC, securities only offered in states John Sanchez is registered in. Sanchez Wealth Management LLC and independent financial group LLC are unaffiliated entities. Dwight Mallard is not associated with Sanchez Wealth Management LLC or independent financial group LLC. Dwight Mallard, co-host, NMLS number 241259, Guild Mortgage Company Equal Housing Opportunity, NMLS number 3274. 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