The Jon Sanchez Show
6/21 - Friday Wrap-up - The Week on Wall Street
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Is it like one you can like mix on? Oh, it's a pioneer double turn table. Yeah. Oh, so like do you play vinyl on it or is it like... No, no, no. It's all... Yeah. You download the music and then you can mix the music. Oh, it is so cool. Oh, was this for the wedding thing? No. Landwise, you just decided you were going to be... I bought it when I had the cancer since I couldn't do much else. And so I thought, "Well, you know what? This is going to be something that's going to keep my brain being... That's awesome. Yeah. I'm going to be a DJ. I'm going to be a DJ. Yeah. Well, wait a minute here. You've got the voice. Well, thank you. Thank you. I love music. I mean, I got everything mixed in. Sure. You know, the icing on the cake. What's his name? David, the CEO of Goldman? Oh, yes. Yeah, I'm not talking about it. I mean, Goldman Sachs CEO does DJ stuff on the side. Yeah. He did it to the board, shut him down. Yeah. So I figured, you know, if it's getting up for him, you know, maybe I can pick up some clients or something, Jay. Yeah. It was off for personally. I just love music. I love techno music. Like I said, so... You like techno music? One of my goals. Wow. I love techno music. Really like house-type stuff? Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Okay. And especially my favorite is mixing the old school stuff. There you go. Yeah. The old school. Oh, man. Nothing better. Interesting. I didn't know. Yeah. I want... See, you thought you knew me well. David Solomon. David Solomon. Thank you. Thank you. I wanted something like... A-N-V, I was talking to a new friend of mine that I met the other day. It's a musician. I'm like... He was playing at this local restaurant. We went and had dinner. And he's playing. And, you know, he and his partner. And I'm like... Just watching him just get so deep into, you know, he's an electric guitar player. I'm like... Okay. That would be so cool to be able to just zone out and get into the zone, you know, with music. And I thought, well, you could, you know, kind of do that on the mixing board. Yeah. And you definitely can. Too dumb to learn how to play guitar at this stage of my life. So I thought... It's hard. You know what? I don't mix it. Yeah. Do you play... Have you ever played it? I played the drums for a long time. No kidding. I did. Yeah. I had drums at my house. Electric ones. It makes me less obnoxious. But I played a ton when I was younger. Oh, that's so cool. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's a hidden bucket list of mine. So one of these days I'm going to learn. Yeah. I thought, you know... Just because... I mean, think about it. You can have so much fun, right, without being musical talent, because I'm not. You can just have so much fun and rock the house as the saying goes. On the back of the boat, right? On the back of the boat. You can bump it up to like the dock. Exactly. I can see it. I can see it. I can see it. You got it. This is a... I see what you're doing here. [laughter] Going through the marina boat. Yeah. And the additional charge for the charters, right? Oh, you want the DJ Johnny G? Oh, I already got my name too. Right. That's a million dollars. Yeah, DJ Johnny G. Right there. Yeah, that's good. Yeah, DJ Johnny G. I like it. That's good. And you know, I do have my... I became a reverend also, during that... You did? Yeah. Yeah. So I'm reverend Johnny G also. Wow. [laughter] That is... I did not know either of those things. Okay. All right. Let's see. There's all my dirty laundry. You know, everything else about me. That's good. I feel like we're getting somewhere here. [laughter] First, he taught me about budgets. Now you're... Yeah. Right. This is sharing. I love it. Yeah. This is a therapy. Welcome to the therapy labs. Yeah. Forget the stock market. It's all about John and Jason. I mean, the market was flat today. I didn't do anything. Despite five trillion of options' expiration, right? Yeah. No kidding. It was just... Yeah, quadruple witching. And I was going to tease you about. It's like, dude, what happened to your... Oh, your option next... You know, I know the volume was a little bit higher, but it wasn't anything crazy as far as the volatility. What happened? Yeah. I mean, you get pinned on some of these things. Remember it... What do you mean by that? Do you use that term? Use it. So when the market is pinned, essentially all of the options sort of create a vacuum towards a strike, right? Think of a case of... So the term short gamma, as the stock moves away from a price, it actually creates more pressure away from that price. That's when market makers are set up where it hurts them when it moves away from a price. The flip side is if they're long gamma and they actually have a lot of exposure to a specific price it creates pinning because as the stock moves away, they have to reduce their hedge. So it actually creates selling. And if the stock moves down, they have to increase their hedge and it creates buying. So it actually creates pins is what it's called. And so Goldman actually does a great job. They put out a pin sheet, unfortunately, I'm no longer on said distribution list because I'm not a customer anymore, but there used to be pins on stocks, right, exactly. But I could get... I used to talk to those guys quite a bit, I could probably put that back up. Absolutely. Pascarello, who's on TV all the time, Tony P is absolutely amazing. I used to talk to him all the time, but he ran that team. But yeah, whenever you get pin risk, which many had said would occur today, and market just sort of sits here and oscillates as long as it doesn't move out of a range, it typically just ends up being buried there. Right. Interesting. I was expecting it all day long. It's like, "Okay. Where's the major volatility?" Because you and I have seen this a million times where you get in that last, especially that last 15 to 30 minutes, and my gosh, you can get massive moves and you're just going, "What the heck happened? Where's the..." Oh, there's no news. That's quadruple operation. Yeah. And it didn't happen today. Well, it's really interesting. Talking about the thing that I mentioned on the show a couple, I don't know, maybe a week or so ago about a specific ETF, which I can't say, it's ticker, that had a very small Nvidia position, much smaller than one would have expected, given it's waiting in the S&P, and a too large of an Apple position, given those same reasons. And that trade, remember the big S&P rebalance today, too, that trade put itself on. So if you own a specific technology ETF, which is the biggest one out there that tracks the S&P 500, your Nvidia position got bigger at the close today, and your Apple position got smaller. So if you own that specific ETF, be aware of that, that you're kind of bought in different levels. And that's some of the reason why Apple moved. Again, it wasn't as big of a, I mean, I think it's maybe $40 or $50 billion of aggregate demand and supply, but I think people position around those things, too. And I think that's some of why Apple did what it did about a week ago, and Nvidia did what it did over the last couple of sessions, too. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. You have meaning on the downside. Yeah. Apples down today. And the video is down $4.21. Apple, $2.19. So yeah, makes perfect sense. Very good. Excellent. All right, folks, there's your master's degree 101 in option trading, i.e. Gamma. Yeah. All those goofy words. And you get the, you can't, you can't, you can't get this anywhere else. No, no. And people are probably happy about that. Yeah. Exactly. What is this narrative talking about? That's right. That's right. It's computer nerd. All right. Let me tell you what Jason and I have lined up for you this evening. As you can tell us Friday, we're, we're tired. It's been a long week and even though it was a short and weak, it was a long week. And we're ready, of course, to have a great time with you this evening. So here's what we're going to be doing. We thought we're going to rub the dust off or blow the dust off of our crystal ball here for you, right? Almost the end of the second quarter, obviously, today's June 21st. We just have, you know, nine days to go and, of course, not nine trading days. But here's what we're going to do. We're going to, as we approach the end of the second quarter, now is the time that we want you to begin assessing the second half of this year. Okay. Now I know June, you know, officially is the halfway point, but just go with me on this. So why don't you start thinking about it and assessing the second half of this year? Now, as we've discussed many times, we anticipate a lot of volatility in this market and the reasons behind it are as follows. Number one, I don't know if you, you and I have never really privately or publicly discussed this, but I'll just give you my opinion, chime in if you're different, but God bless you. But I think, you know, so here's my cast, the first one, and let's get your opinion before I go through my list. I think the volatility is going to increase after next week when maybe up to it or definitely after, depending upon how it goes, the first presidential debate. Agree, I disagree. Um, increase, I'll agree. Sure. Okay. Perfect. So there's the first thing that you need to be thinking about and where's the schedule at now? I keep seeing different things. I mean, I don't know if you know, they are like two, yeah, two more presidential debates, I think I can't nail down the number, but hopefully there will be at least one more. Okay. So that's one thing that's going to create volatility. If, if one side or the other, in my prediction, of course, is Trump's going to just demolish the Biden in this debate next week. If that's the case, you're going to be starting the chatter already about the election. Okay. So that's going to be one form of volatility. Secondly, of course, as we get closer to November, right, the election, that's going to create volatility. I've already had, I don't know about you, Jason, and some of our meetings with our clients. I've already had a number of them start talking about, Hey, what do you guys think is going to happen with the volatility in the market and as we get closer and so on and so forth. So that's going to be another force. And then, of course, how the market's going to react when we finally get the first rate cut from the Fed. Remember the street right now, just, you know, quote, quote, is planning on September being the first rate cut. We haven't seen significant market improvement in Europe with their rate cut as Switzerland now has performed or given their, their economy three rate cuts here in the last, you know, we'll call it a couple months or so. So, you know, so the bottom line is there's a lot of things, but what we're telling you and why we're telling you this and thinking about it on our Fridays, start thinking as we progress through the, you know, the rest of the year, it's going to be July before we know it if you need to reposition things. And so tonight we'll kind of talk about what we think is going to happen, you know, based upon these factors and many more that may pop into our heads, but just get you start thinking about this second half because, Jason, I mean, you and I both know, I don't know. It's kind of like my joke. I always say when we hit, you know, Halloween, it seems like you blink an eye in the end of the years here. It's kind of the same way in my mind when you hit fourth of July, it's like, man, summer is, you know, kind of almost halfway over and then before you know it, you know, it is going to be Halloween and, and things are going to start happening real fast. So, you know, it's going to be a fun topic for a Friday evening. Anything you want to add to that? No, I, I agree in most cases. I think, you know, again, we'll talk about it a bit later. My opinion is that the market won't react is, you know, I think people may react stupidly after the election's over and said done, but I don't think the market actually cares in terms of them. No, no, I agree. Right. But it's leading up to it. So the volatility may be more something to cause people's heads to spin, but I still think it's one that you should stare through with the other side of the presidential election. Maybe you can dig it up at the, maybe you can dig it up at the break. You provided us with some incredible stats, I don't know, a couple of months ago about how the market reacts in, in, you know, in a presidential election year and so on and so forth. So if you got that at your fingertips, so that'd be cool thing to talk about tonight. Cool. All right. Let's turn it over to Jim Post and he is in the right now, traffic center. Hey, Jim. Welcome back to the John Sanchez show on his talk 780K away to what Jason gun of Sanchez wealth management. Happy Friday to all of you. All right. Before we get to the market, quick reminder, stand on the crew. They're open tomorrow at S&W tractor and know it's going to be a hot one, but wouldn't you love to be an air conditioned tractor to get all those chores around the household done? That's what you can do. They have the big ones, the small ones, everything in between and all of the implements to go with it. Incredible financing. Zero percent for 84 months on select models. So stop on by and see them. They're located at 4880 East nine lane in Carson City online at s&w tractor.com and of course, they're phone number 882 1225 82 1225. All right. So we finished with a game of 16 on the Dow today, closed at 30,000 150 NASDAQ, a little loss of 32 points closing at 17,000 689 and a pullback of nine on the S&P 500 finishing the day at 5,000 464 eight tenths of a percent pullback on oil prices finished the day at 80 50 a barrel, tough day for gold, $37 and 80 cent loss 2003 25 an ounce and we finished unchanged on the tenure to yield a four 26 just a mere five basis points for the week. That was one of the more quiet weeks. I don't know if it's because of the holiday or I think because we didn't have really any major reports that would affect the bond market J, but boy, that was a this was a week where the yields hardly budged compared to the last week. I remember I think we had a 23 basis point increase. So yeah, that was kind of a nice welcome this week. Yeah, not a lot of Fed rhetoric and we're sitting at, you know, the four and a quarter level on the 10 year. I think that's has been support for some time and probably just waiting for the next data point as to do we go back up again or do we actually break down through this level? So yeah, I think waiting on PC and some of those other numbers to give us our next sniff. Absolutely. All right. Were you able to dig up that data on presidential election? Yeah. I mean, a couple of different things obviously given the S and P tends to go up on average all the time, but the year from going back, we got to on average when a Republicans elected, you've got an average return the following year of 15.3% and a Democrat 7.6% the following year. So markets tend to appreciate the Republicans more on year one. Typically when a Democrat was in office and a new Democrats elected, the return is about 11% and when a Democrat was in office and a Republican was elected total return on average 12.9. So market tends to like red after blue. It seems at least the following year. Interesting. Interesting. I don't think I've ever heard you say that one. That's pretty good. That's read the facts, John. But no, it's like we've talked about a bunch of the opinion that presidents typically inherit economies. Obviously second round, either Republican who gets reelected or Democrat, they bear the fruits and or whatever the opposite of fruits would be of their own sort of choices during their first term. And so, you know, I've often said Obama sort of inherited what Bush did much like Trump and so on and so forth down the line that you're a victim of some of the things that others have done before you. Or conditions. Yeah, for sure. Yeah. You name it different. Yeah. That's interesting. Well, and again, I think it's a good time to remind all of you as we're talking about kind of peering into the future as far as the second half of the year. And that is remember, yes, I think Jason hit it right on the hit at the beginning of the show. There's going to be a lot of rhetoric leading up to the election and again, I think even the debate of, like I said, my personal opinion is if I think of Trump demolishes Biden, which I hope he does, I think you will see the markets really rejoice in that. But back to my point, remember ultimately, whoever does, you know, end up getting elected, yes, you get a little bit of market gyration once the election results are known. But remember, folks, always remember this, the president really cannot do a lot when it comes to economic situations, right? He can propose, you know, things like tax cuts like Trump did and so on and so forth. But remember, it's all about the makeup of Congress. That's really what Wall Street looks at. Yeah. Here's an interesting thing. More than half of the 12 month periods following the 24 presidential elections that they did in their study with the S&P, this is T. Rowe, they overlapped an official U.S. recession. So that, you know, oftentimes, you know, half the time, the 12 month period around an election contains a recession. So that's sort of interesting. That is scary. Mm hmm. Okay. Either we get it between now and the election or, you know, right after it's, I don't know which one I think I'd rather have it now, blame, blame, not a blame, but it's not his fault. All right. Sounds good. Okay. Let's see the debate next Thursday, I believe it's, I think it's at six o'clock last time I checked, but check your local guidelines on that one. Now, as we get closer to the election, right, we always, again, as we were just discussing, start worrying about who's going to win, who's not, Jason and I will be spending a tremendous amount of time talking with our clients. Again, as I joked the last time we did this subject months ago, you know, when we sit down for normal account review, generally it's about five minutes about their money and about, you know, 45 minutes, if not longer talking about politics, because again, it's human nature. People get very nervous. We've given you stories of how clients will not listen to our advice and take themselves 100% to cash only to regret it later. Yes. Please don't do that. No. Regardless of who wins. That's right. It has been a fruitless endeavor. Like I said, please don't. Yeah. Yeah. That's all we can say. Yeah. A bunch of exclamation points. And then when we come back, let's talk a little bit about, you know, as you said, not a lot of Fed rhetoric this week, we didn't get a lot of people, you know, out doing their lunch and dinner speeches. We didn't have any inflationary data. We had no Fed meeting this week. So this was kind of a nice reprieve, but that does not mean the market is still not talking about, Hey, what's going to happen when's that first rate kind of come? So let's let's bring that to the table when we come back, Jason, hit on that and then talk about a few other things that may be influencing the market the second half of the year. In the meantime, let's turn it over to Mr. Jim Poston. He has news traffic and weather. Hey, Jim. Welcome back to the John Sanchez show on new stock 780K, which would Jason kind of Sanchez wealth management? Happy Friday to all of you. All right. Once again, we finished with very modest gains, very modest losses for the day. We finished up 16 on the Dow lost 32 on the NASDAQ and a decline of nine on the S&P 500. All right. Let's hit the the weekly numbers, Jay, and then we'll go to the year to date kind of bring everybody up to date on that as we recap the week and kind of start rubbing the crystal ball for the second half of the year. So for the week, Russell 2000, the little guys 0.23% game, not too shabby. S&P was quiet with a one-sixteenth of a percent decline at Dow was up on or excuse me. I'm sorry. I'm looking at the wrong numbers back up. Here we go. Russell 2000 has like, wait a minute, that doesn't sound like John bump your eyes over one call over here. Yeah, that's fine. That's right. All right. Russell 2000 down 0.83% for the week, S&P at 0.57. Dow is the star performer. He told you not to give up on the Dow. Absolutely. 1.3% and the NASDAQ up just 0.12%. So I bet, what do you trip the Dow gain to? What criticism do you have for me on the Dow? No, no, no criticism. It was more. You definitely saw a little bit of value growth rotation this week, right, where some of the growth momentum really actually I think more than anything else as a factor was pretty week this week. That's why you had some of the commodities selling off. You had the tech name selling off, it was probably more of a factor move than it was value growth specifically, I think, as that has gotten pretty darn stretched to one direction. But not uncommon again, going into the end of a quarter to see some rotation inside of portfolios. Exactly. Well, I think, yeah, I'm going to attribute it to, I don't have the data, but I'm 99% confident. It was Apple, right? Apple had one heck of a week this week. Just kept plugging away other than a little bit of give back yesterday, a little bit give back today. But it was, I joked, I think maybe it was a Tuesday night, so obviously you weren't with me, that I've never seen Apple continue to go up just day after day after day after day. And remember, it started off with, what was it, a little over a $10 game move a couple of days ago and then every day, I mean, pretty substantial. And remember, folks, Apple, the reason I'm bringing this up, Apple is a Dow component. And so I think that was one of the big drivers to the Dow posted a nice 1.3% gain for the for the week. Yeah, price-weighted average. Got to love it. There you go. There you go. Absolutely. All right, let's talk a little bit about the year-to-date numbers, my friend. Here we said on the year-to-date side of things, speaking of the NASDAQ, star performer, far out pacing everybody, 17.8% gain. The one that impresses me the most, the S&P, 14.6% gain year-to-date, Dow up just 3.9 year-to-date, Russell's negative, 3.10% percent. Again, we don't see the S&P having years like this attributed to the tech, right? And the video and the apples and the Microsofts, all the big boys, of course, really are helping drive this. And in this, I'm hoping this is where you're going to chime in and go, yeah, the market-weighted S&P versus, you know, on and on. Yeah, right. Go ahead. I know it. I know it's coming. You have done well, right, names like Eli, Lilly, some of those have also helped certainly contribute, yeah, due to weight loss and et cetera. But yeah, I mean, it's, again, part of even a market cap-weighted index has flaws where right, the S&P itself is truly a momentum index, right? A price-weighted, or rather, a market cap-weighted index, the things that are going up get bigger, therefore, they're a bigger part of the index, therefore, it's a momentum index. That's really what large cap U.S., yeah, that's, you know, it's, and so it's interesting to see the winners continue to win. They continue to get bigger until acted upon by another force. But I think that, I think this year, at least, has been healthier. You've seen some rotation in parts of the market. Some areas have picked up. You've got different themes that people are all around, quote, unquote, AI, but to see utilities be mentioned as a, you know, kind of a side way to play the growth of AI. Healthcare actually has the best momentum in this market right now, the healthcare sector. So that's an area that I think people may be underexposed to that you could probably be taking a look at. I'm of the opinion that if tech does weaken, that it will be held up by other areas. I think the economy is strong enough right now, had a great meeting earlier with clients today. I think we're in the 90s and I've said this quite a few times now, you know, again, the 90s were followed by 2000 and maybe that happens too. Right. Part of the 90s be more expensive. Right. I think the mid 90s, I think it's sort of 95, 96 time frame, right? The millennials and the baby boomers, we keep harping on this. If you believe in the stock markets, a Ponzi scheme, it's more money in than money coming out. So a lot of what you're seeing is that back up through 30 years when the baby boomers were in their 30s and 40s, that's exactly where this world is now. They're big. They're consuming their new technologies, they're creating jobs, so on and so forth. So that's, that's what I think is going on. You know, lots of folks with money buying, buying houses, how come housing prices aren't coming down with high interest rates? That's why they're buyers and I think they're going to continue to be for some time. So this is a buy the dip market. You will get your dips, but I still think it's a buy the dip market for a number of years. Well, you know, I bring up the real estate, I was going to mention this. This is an interesting one. That's a great point you bring up. You know, we had existing home sales check in today. Number wasn't all that good, right? This is mazed at it down seven tenths of a percent month over month, year over year, down 2.8%. But I brought this up on, I think it was my last stock update with Ross this morning. And what was interesting, I brought up our local report that Corey and I and Dwight did, I think it was last week. And you know, on a national basis, I don't have the story in front of me that something's going to go off a memory. But on a national basis, you know, we saw a pretty good decline in the median price. We're here locally, our median price is still holding up pretty well. So in other words, when I went through the data comparing our local real estate market to the national, both of them are still don't get me wrong, extremely strong. Like you said, very resilient to a seven percent mortgage, you know, we're at a one and a half months inventory. We're now bumping up about, I think 3.6% months of inventory on a national basis. That number's been edging up just a little bit. We're starting to hear some of the home builders like we had a few of them this week, report earnings numbers. And the previous quarter was good, but I think we had KB and we had, I think it was toll, if I remember right this week, and they both pretty much said the same thing, last quarter pretty good, but the outlook going forward, not too good. And so I just wanted to bring this up as I did on the stock update this morning, Jay, and say, look at, you know, don't get in, in this was our show last night, you know, how do you, how do you fulfill the American dream of home ownership? And I think Corey hit it right on the head. He said, be patient because the markets, the housing market will correct at some point. You just have to be patient. Otherwise, you know, you're going to be out there banging your head against the payment, trying to, you know, bid on the house and deal with a seven percent mortgage, et cetera. So we're starting to see signs as the bottom line, we're starting to see signs of a little bit of slowdown on a national basis, not quite as bad here locally, but just something to keep in mind. So back to your point about, you know, the, the millennials buying, yeah, they're such a strong group. But at the same time, that's the group that's so frustrated not being able to like get a house here locally, at least on that. Yeah. It's expensive. I mean, there's, there's no two ways about it is incredibly expensive for the average person to, you know, get started buying a home, especially given where interest rates are. And also the scrutiny that banks are putting folks under too. It's not like the 90s and early 2000s of old where put down five percent and then we'll do a second, like that game is over and, you know, the plus side is we're complaining, yelling, how come these banks and their stupid lending, which I completely agree with because they securitized all the mortgages and punt them down to somebody else to blow up. But you know, now there's much more scrutiny for all of the lending too, which makes you need to have 20 plus percent. I mean, we have a client here, dynamite guy, I mean, he has plenty of money to get alone. And still we had to deal with a lot of back and forth to prove, I mean, I think I could have made cash for the, for the, to get alone and deal with all of it. It was, you know, he was looking for construction a lot of things, but it was amazing, the hoops that he had to jump through his lender had to jump through, just given all of the up the chain, you know, scrutiny around everything, banks are pretty tight. You know, yeah, they are. You bring up a great point. And I've mentioned this before, but I think this is a great time to mention it also. If you, especially those of you that are retired, if you are deriving a portion of your retirement income from your investment portfolio, you know, what we'll tend to do is when we get contacted by a lender to validate that the client, let's just do hypotheticals, taking out $4,000 a month, I mean, I have to sign my name to say, yes, they are taking this out. And yes, and here's the new trick that lenders are doing. Do they ask me, do you think is the CEO of the company or as the CEO of the company, Jason, do you think that this can, can continue? That's something new that I'm seeing. And of course, if we think so, yes, we're going to say so. But if we don't think so, then yeah, we, we've got to be honest, of course. But my point of all this is if you are going to be using your brokerage account, IRA, et cetera, to help qualify you for a mortgage, please involve your financial advisor. I don't know, frankly, I'll just be real blunt, I don't know what you do if you have a brokerage account with, you know, the Vanguard's, the Fidelity's, the Schwab's of the world, because you don't have that relationship. I can't imagine. Yeah, we're right. I write letters all the time. Right. Exactly. Signing, stating your account. Can you see them doing that? Right. Get somebody overseas to, you know, that's my point. Exactly. So, so yeah, so if you're fortunate enough to deal, you know, with your own advisor, you know, they know you, you know them, et cetera, get them involved early on it. And, and sometimes, of course, if you're not taking income, I've had this happen. I know you have, you know, sometimes the client's not taking income, but they can't qualify for the loan because they are retired. We'll start taking income, you know, from the portfolio because they need that income to, to, to qualify and, you know, continue that on. So there's a lot of different things, but the bottom line is don't, please don't wait until the last minute and say, Hey, you know what, can you write a letter stating I've been taking? No, we will not do that. It has to be legit, folks. So anyways, this little thing you brought up there. All right. We'll come back and continue to peer into the crystal ball for the second half of this year. In the meantime, Mr. Poston's going to wrap us up in the right now at traffic center. Hey, Jim. Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on his talk, 780 K O H with Jason Gaunt. Once again, 16 point gain on that hour lost 32 on the NASDAQ and a decline of nine on the SMP 500. All right. So once again, we kind of been talking about what we start to think about going forward for the rest of the year again, July is going to be here. And that's kind of mentally where investors start to begin focusing and say, okay, what do we have in store? As we discussed earlier in the program, if you just joined us. Some of the things that we're keeping on our radar, we can see some reaction from the presidential debates, if it's, you know, really lopsided, one does significantly better than the other. Obviously, the closer we get to November election, that's going to have an influence. And of course, how the markets will react to the first rate cut if we get that as anticipated by the street come September. What else is on your mind? My friend, as far as market volatility into the year type of, you know, headlines. Yeah, in most of the client conversations, I downplay the election, I downplay, you know, I mean, point to the fact that I think that the Fed cuts rates this year, just given the fact that inflation has in fact come lower, and I'll stop saying in fact. But the geopolitical is the part that concerns me, right? Will there be some sort of North Korea, China, Russia, you're always worried about that. It's just the one variable that I feel like is could cause angst, right? Of course. They say, if China lobs a grenade at Taiwan, the S&P 500, we're going to open up. It's going to be down 10%, right? Just limit down day one doesn't mean it stays there, but it's going to be a shoot first ask questions later. That's the, that's truly the thing that troubles me more than anything else. I think the economy is on good footing. I'm not concerned about the consumer in general. I think that there's enough tailwinds from tech, et cetera, that will help the markets over the next year or two, interest rates will pay play a big part in, I think, the trajectory of the markets come 25, 26, clearly Trump or Biden and the rhetoric that, again, goes towards the geopolitical situation is going to be a bit of a wildcard. But that would be the only other thing that, you know, I'm thinking of, I mean, if inflation moves back up. I just don't think that if that's going to be the case, all right, I mean, the genie is in the bottle. It's just more a function of does it want to come back out or can we put the corga, I don't know, use whatever analogy you want that the Fed has enough ammo at this point to cut rates. Had they not screwed it up two, three years ago, they would have already started cutting. So it's just now more, unfortunately, of jaw boning and things like that, right? Right. I agree with all your points. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, oil. Yeah, definitely. Not as concerned about the geopolitical side is you, which is good. It'll be bad if both of us are, you know, I've been adding international to all the portfolios. Yeah. There you go. There you go. Why are we a 50% allocation? What happened? Yeah. What happened there? Oh, goodness. I'm more concerned about the consumer, not, and I won't say I'm really concerned as too strong award. I'm watching it closely. Back to the data I shared with you on the real estate side, consumers starting to get very frustrated as they have been for many years, but even more so now on the real estate side. But one thing that we haven't really discussed a lot about, and probably maybe next week, we can do this, is we are starting to see the initial claims and the continuing claims that we get each and every Thursday, Jason and I mentioned, they are starting to edge up a little bit. Right. So they'll keep edging up. I really do. Exactly. Exactly. So I think, you know, to your point, the economy is definitely on strong footing. If those numbers don't get crazy and then the end result, of course, seeing a massive spike in unemployment, a massive spike, or decline, excuse me, in non-form payroll numbers, then I think, you know, we're going to kind of, quote, have the soft landing when it comes to the jobs picture, but as you and I both know, the jobs are everything, right? People don't have jobs. They can't make their payments. They don't invest in the market. I mean, the list list goes on and on. So that to me is my biggest concern, and like I said, no definitive issues at this point, but just once again, something we, you know, that's what Jason and I can do is look down the room. Long-term unemployment, 4.8%, right? We've been at three in change. We're now at four, right? So to go back to what is normal will be more than a percent move. And as we've talked about before, 100% of the time when unemployment goes up 1%, a recession comes very, very soon. So all of those can, you know, I mean, we had our data point earlier, right? You know, 50% of the time our recession happens. So we shall see, but yeah, no, that's something certainly to be thinking about. Absolutely. I wish you a great weekend. Hey, you too, you know. It's nice and sunny on everybody. Be safe. Save on O'Reilly Brake Parts Cleaner. Get two cans of O'Reilly Brake Parts Cleaner for just $8, valid in store only at O'Reilly Auto Parts. Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, right? Auto Parts. (screams)