On the first full trading day of the second half, Carl Quintanilla and Jim Cramer explored what to expect from the markets over the next six months. Jim offered his take on the AI rally, the "arrogance" of the bears and his investment strategy for the upcoming earnings season. China services activity for June came in at its slowest in five months -- the data out one day ahead of U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's four-day visit to Beijing. Also in focus: Meta expected to challenge Twitter by launching its "Threads" app this week, Teamsters vs. UPS, an upgrade for Netflix.