Coffee House Shots
Keir Starmer: 'We want to reset relationships with EU'
Get three months of the spectator for just three pounds. Go to spectator.co.uk/trial. Hello and welcome to Coffee House Shots, the spectator's daily politics podcast. I'm Oscar Edmondson and I'm joined today by Katie Bowles and Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform. So, Keir Starmer is in Blenham Palace today for the meeting of the European political community and he's been talking up his plans for a reset of relations with Europe and we can hear some of his opening address now. We'll strengthen our existing relationships and we will build new ones. This includes resetting our relationship with the EU because I believe that the UK and the EU working together as sovereign partners are a powerful force for good across our continent. For peace, for security, for prosperity, for all our people. Charles, it seems that the the aims here are closer strategic ties with Europe. So, what does this reset look like? Well, Keir Starmer knows he's got to counter a lot of negative images that affect the way the EU's seen and in the EU countries. It's quite hard for us to imagine that since Boris Johnson hasn't been Prime Minister for several years but his tenure ship of Dining Street really went down very badly with EU partners. The way he behaved, basically threatening to tear up an international treaty with the withdrawal agreement, went down very badly. Rishi Sunak did restore Britain's reputation to some considerable degree but he still talked about tearing up the European Convention on Human Rights or Britain leaving it anyway at some of the time as a possibility. So, he didn't fully restore trust. I think Starmer thinks that what he's got to do is restore trust, make people respect the UK and he's going to emphasize very much rule of law as an issue. He's making a big play on the fact that Churchill was born in Benham Palace. Churchill sort of created the Council of Europe and the Council of Europe created the European Convention on Human Rights which Starmer is rather proud of supporting as a human rights lawyer you'd expect him to say that. So, I think there's going to be a lot of emphasizing how he's different from the Conservatives and he's somebody who believes in the rule of law and could be trusted. I mean, ahead of Keir Starmer's taking office, you wrote an open letter with 10 points for sort of more constructive relationships with Europe. Have you seen him trying to implement any of those points as of yet? I think so. I mean, my first point was just be modest. Don't puff your chest. Don't talk about Britain having world-beating this or world-beating that. A bit of modesty would go down very well with our partners. I think they will be pleasantly surprised by Starmer's personality. I mean, he's in a way a kind of anti-matter Boris Johnson. He's the opposite. Starmer is quite modest, quite diligent, quite serious, perhaps a bit dull, concerned with detail, doesn't play to the gallery and all those things will go down really well and will help, I think, to restore trust. Just by being himself, he'll do some of what he needs to do, which is get European leaders to trust him because he can't renegotiate the terms of Brexit unless he's restored trust. Casey, what's your take on today? So, of course, we had Keir Starmer's first re-enter to the world stage last week in Washington at the '80s summit. This is different in the sense. It is his first time hosting. And therefore, we've had all these videos of Keir Starmer standing up then in palace, welcoming leaders in, Victor Orbin of Hungary. Got quite a warm embrace, it seemed. And Manuel Macron, I think lots of other sparks were romance, almost approaching romantic, as it looked into one of his eyes. Now, when it comes to the European political community, of course, this was founded by a man in Macron after Russia's evasion of Ukraine. I think you can argue that in that time, some of the European leaders who have used this forum have grown weaker back home. If you look at the problems in France from Macron at the moment, if you look at what's happening in Germany and other shots. So, it perhaps is not quite strong as a base than it would have been a year or so ago. However, it still presents a really helpful opportunity for Keir Starmer, which is what is Keir Starmer's main foreign policy objective? Or perhaps that would almost limit it when it comes to business, trade, migration. It is to forge closer ties with Europe. So, I think that Keir Starmer's quite lucky, in a way, that so quickly, after entering 10 Downing Street, he has inherited the summit, that if Russia's not going to wait until the autumn, the Tories will be hosting right now. And if you look at Keir Starmer's opening comments, he was talking about this need for this reset in relations. And that has been a repeated line from Labour politicians since Keir Starmer took over, which is often almost, I think he almost surmised as we'll be the adults in the room. We will not play to the gallery to Charles' point. We will not try and get quick front pages to pop up our allies and therefore, you know, garner some points back at home. But obviously, also in that time, how Europe looks has changed quite significantly in terms of some of the parties on the rise, and that photo we had at the recent G7, which was a photo of the G7 leaders, including Rishisunuk at that point. And then it was their approval ratings back home. And Maloney of Italy was doing the best. I think the question is, can Keir Starmer convert probably quite a warm response he has received so far? Because all foreign leaders want to be around someone who looks popular and secure. But can he convert that into tangible results? Now, this idea of a security pact is probably the number one, but it's also seen as one of the easier things to get. There's also questions about what about the EU trading relationship. And then I think probably the most tricky is the idea of a returns agreement. And you had Macron today saying there are no silver bullets in that area. And Charles, do you think there is appetite within the European community for close relations with the UK? Well, there is, but there are the divided on what that means. Certainly, everybody, I think, would go along with the security pact that Katie mentioned. It's a very insecure, dangerous world, and the British, for all the problems their armed forces face, have better armed forces than most. And the more they can contribute to Europe and security, the better. They'd obviously contribute a lot through NATO already, but they can do more through bilateral relations. For example, we have a close defence treaty with France, already the Lancaster House agreements, Labour wants a similar agreement with the Germans, or perhaps doing stuff with the EU itself. So that is not controversial. There's no mechanism at the moment for plugging in the British to EU conversations on foreign and defence policy and just setting up some mechanism whereby we're consulted. We don't have a vote, we have a voice, so we can influence the room, what goes on in the room, learn what's happening in the EU and build some friendships. That's not controversial. More controversial would be the issues of migration and trade. Migration, obviously, I think the Labour Party does seem to be interested in getting a returns agreement. We lost when we left the EU, the right to return illegal immigrants to the place where they entered the EU from. We've lost that, and we could probably get a returns agreement. We would have to agree to take a certain number of EU asylum seekers in return, perhaps the children who have relatives in the UK. That's one possibility. That would be a very difficult and sensitive negotiation, but I think Labour is looking for it. I think on the EU side, there would be a willing list to include the UK in their migration policies. Obviously, it's easier to combat illegal migration if you work together and cooperate, and maybe the British could rejoin the Euro-DAC database, which is a fingerprinting system for asylum seekers. Trade is also very difficult. The EU is here that's seriously divided on this. I think the French and the European Commission are rather hostile to the idea of reopening the trade and cooperation agreement. I think it works pretty well for the EU. If it doesn't work for the British, that's their problem. They negotiated it, and everybody's busy with other stuff. But if you talk to the Poles and the Nordics and the Bolts and some others, they're much more willing to consider reopening the trade agreement, especially if the geopolitical context is dark and gloomy, which makes everybody think they need to get close to the UK. Casey, just finally, this language of a reset, how has that gone down in Westminster? Have we got Brexiteers spinning furiously today? If we're being honest, there's just not that many Brexiteers left. If you think about elected MPs, there are just over 100 Tory MPs. You have to almost be a lexiteer in the Labour Party to be a Brexiteer. You do have a couple who are at least susceptible to Euroscepticism in certain seats. But it was much more, you know, he think back to when Jeremy Corbyn was a Labour leader during the EU referendum. There was huge frustration in parts of the Labour Party that he would never be too enthusiastic about the cause of the debate, because there was a school of thought, which is actually lots of the things they would want to do but outside it. You look at Keir Starmer's Cabinet. They are, I think it's fair to say, your refiles in the sense that you look at their past comments in the EU referendum. It's correct to say every single one of them back to remain. Now, the rhetoric has been toned down. I think there is an acceptance. I wouldn't want it to suggest that I'm saying, oh, they're about to rejoin the EU. It's not that. But clearly, if you look at David Lammy's past comments where Streetings, Keir Starmer's, Richard Reeves, and more, there is a sense that close relations with the EU is the best option for the UK. And the argument now articulated is they don't want to look as though they are in a bitter remain as of the past. But instead, the argument you will hear those in Labour make, which is in an endangered world, in a world where there are crises in the middle of the East, on Europe, and beyond. Does it not make more sense to go for your like-minded allies? And in that case, would you not go to the ones nearest to you? So I think that's how it's being seen differently. Now, clearly, the Tories will try to attack this. The reform party will try to attack this. You can imagine Nigel Farage saying, this is a secret route to rejoin the EU. I think it's hard right now for the Tories to do it because there's just a sense of their out, potentially in the future. But they did have quite a few years to try and pitch to the public. There are more benefits in Brexit. If you look at the current polling, it does not look as though some of the voters who voted leave are convinced by what came after. Now, there's still risks to Kostama. I do think this returns agreement idea and what they end up doing on migration could be one of those risks. Kostama talked about return agreements previously, but the Tories found this, they almost suggested it was an official EU document. It was a think tank, I think, within the EU, Charles and O'Mill and I on this, and use these numbers to say, oh, they're going to take all these people from Europe. And then he talked about it a bit less. But I think what the whole episode pointed to was just a sense that because of Tory failures, Kostama has felt confident as leader of the opposition to lead on small boats of migration. If they had to have a situation where you have a returns agreement, which would fix some issues for sure, potentially, but it looks as though the UK is taking more than it's share and, you know, it does not play perhaps like a scheme that Rwanda had it were to played, then they could suddenly look a bit differently. And then, of course, when people talk about what you have to get in return for having less friction in your relationship, the EU does not, as we know, like cherry picking. I don't think Kostama will be during the single market. I think you could end up in something which looks like a customs union, sounds like a customs union, but does not actually technically count as one. I think that's more likely landing zone. But of course, something like freedom of movement, which comes to single market access, would be highly controversial. So I think we're just seeing how far, so how much does charm with European allies and a different atmosphere change things coming up against how much do those red lines we've heard of so many times? And I think the reality is charm and being like mine, I can get you a little bit of the way, but it's not going to change the fundamentals. Can I just point out the other important news this afternoon, which is the Ursula von Delion has been reappointed as the European Commission for another five years. She won her vote in Strasbourg. That's actually quite important for the UK, because she's undoubtedly relatively flexible compared to some of her officials and relatively brittle in the way she views the world. So I think whatever Kostama tries to achieve, I think she will be helpful. And just one final comment I'd make on what Katie said. I think that the Labour Party is going to be extremely worried about this being accused of being in favour of being in favour of free movement. So although in theory, I think everybody in the Labour Party would like to see a mobility chapter added to the TCA so that I can go and give a lecture and answer without needing a visa to do so. In practice, anything that sounds like free movement is they're going to run a million miles from. That's why they've rejected the idea of a youth mobility scheme, which he was very keen on. And I think they may reject rejoining the Erasmus student exchange scheme as well. So I think those of us who would like to see a close relationship again have a workout out to persuade the Labour leadership to make it easier for working people to travel to the EU for a few days without a visa. Thank you Charles, thank you Katie and thank you very much for listening. And if you do enjoy the podcast, please give us a rate and review. [Music]