(upbeat music) - Hello everybody and welcome to the tip of the iceberg podcast, your home for Pittsburgh, Penguins, News and Analysis. You can find us on YouTube at tip of the iceberg or anywhere. You get your podcast from, we got a great show for you guys today. I'm most excited, I think, about the third segment we're gonna talk about, some of the Penguins who just got new uniform numbers and whether or not they can outperform the previous pens who donned those certain numbers, but we're gonna start things off with the Penguins biggest strength as we sit here today in the middle to end of July. What is their biggest strength then? What can really bolster some of the other areas of the roster and then we're gonna talk a little bit about a few prospects who made the athletics top 100 to 120 prospects list. Scott Wheeler put it out this week, we're gonna break down where the Penguins stand in that one. But let's get started with the Penguins biggest strengths. Looking at the Penguins biggest strengths on the roster, I think it's pretty obvious, right? I mean, and it's not a mystery, it's not something we need to call Scooby-Doo and the gang to figure out, it's top six center, sit in Geno, it's right defense, Carlson, Latang, and I'll even throw St. Ivey in there. Is there any debate upon those two being their biggest areas of strength? - Of strength? No, it's for the team specifically as well. Without taking it into comparison with other teams across the NHL, when you're looking at just the Penguins in a vacuum, their biggest strength is absolutely, Malcolm Crosby, Latang, Carlson, you can absolutely throw Jackson Ivey in there or whoever else filters into that spot because it's gonna be a battle for that position, it's going to be an improvement. They are going to decide who essentially is the best way for that spot, only adding to the legitimacy of the right side. So yeah, when you look at it in a vacuum, absolutely, those are the Penguins best positions. And I mean, comparatively to the league, I'd say it's up there too, if you were to broaden the horizon a little. - Yeah, Sydney Crosby obviously over 90 points, the previous two season of Genny Malkin ranking in the top 10 in overall point production among second line centers. And then you look at the right side on the defense, even if it was a little underperforming and underwhelming last year, Latang, Carlson, both Hall of Famers, both expected to bounce back and have pretty good seasons despite the fact that they're aged another year and a full year of Jack St. Ivani, which I think everybody is excited to see how he can carry over the momentum that he built up late last season with his first stint with the NHL club. So those two areas, very few question marks. The third biggest area of strength, I think is one of the most underrated areas the Penguins have had in a very long time. And that is the left side of the forward core. You look at, especially the middle six, if all things go well this offseason and the Penguins are able to bring in somebody to play top line minutes next to Sidney Crosby, you're looking at your middle six left side as Michael Bunting on the second line, Drew Connor on the third line. I feel like that is the most underrated area if they can get it lined up in that specific way for the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2024. - Oh yeah, if they can make that move and find someone new for Sidney Crosby, not that they need to, but if they can, then absolutely, that is a pretty solid middle six because it's Michael Bunting who has proven to be a great piece to go next to Kenny Mulkin and can play on the first line, if need be. And what did Drew O'Connor just do down the stretch of the season? He proved he can play on the first line. So it's, you don't wanna say that's two first line players, two first line wingers sitting in the middle six, but you wanna say those are two wingers with first line capabilities and first line assets that are bolstering a position of need for the Penguins for the past few seasons and that is the depth, forward depth. So yeah, absolutely, guys that can have those attributes of top line capabilities being pushed down the lineup a little bit is only a good thing. And it does kind of harken back a little bit at least to when Phil Castle was playing on the Penguins third line. I mean, again, Apple's to Orange is comparison, but when you build the depth up enough and there are good players that can leapfrog other players and then once the lineup just works, something about Drew O'Connor sitting in that third line spot is ideal for the Penguins too. - Yeah, now I'm not gonna say either of these guys are gonna go out there and be 30 gold guys. I was asked that question yesterday on tip of the iceberg live. How many 30 gold scorers do I see the Penguins having this season? My answer was three. It was Crosby who just put up 40 plus last year. Brian Rust who was a 30 plus gold score on pace. And I think I've got him all 'cause he was close there and I expect him to have a better year. And I was like, those are the three that I think have a possibility. Bunting in O'Connor are guys that I'm gonna peg for 30 goals, but at the same time, you look at what Michael Bunting was able to do last year in his short time with the Penguins. It equated to about a quarter of a season playing 21 games and he was on pace for 74 points if it was a full 82 game season with Evgeny Malkin and the Pittsburgh Penguins. That is one, a career high for Michael Bunting and two, just a ridiculous add on top of the fact that Dubas was able to get everybody else. I'm not gonna go back into the trade, but having him as your second line left wing, again, it all comes down to whether or not you can add a guy above him and Bumpo Connor down, you're gonna be really stocked up, especially when it comes to matchups on that left side 'cause Bunting is not easy to play against. Drew O'Connor is, as time has gone on, has gotten increasingly difficult to play against for opponents. If you add somebody similar to that but a little bit higher upside as far as offensive potential, the Penguins are gonna have a pretty stacked left side and then that's without even mentioning the fact that Blake Lazar is right now slotted to be your fourth line left wing and I like that as well. - Yeah, so that's a good spot for him. It's a good spot to enter the end of the lineup show he can do as a depth forward and prove that poll that we did last episode correct considering most fans are excited about what he can bring to this team. And even if, like you mentioned, if they don't make those moves to add a new top line left winger, Anthony Pavilion is slotting in as maybe the third line center or third line left wing. Now, again, maybe that's a bit of a push, a bit of an over a bit of a higher spot than maybe everyone would like him to be. It's still, again, a decent enough face for the depth itself. If in a vacuum, if you're just looking at the bottom six and you're without taking into consideration who's in the top, that's a solid enough piece. It's a solid enough option for the Penguins bottom six and Pavilion, but again, Lazar stepping into that fourth line role, the expectations are going to be high, especially considering, you know, how fans reacted to your poll last episode and what he needs to bring to the table, especially for this Penguins depth. - As a bit of an aside here, I just had like three or four thoughts run through my mind when you brought up Anthony Pavilion. I think personally, looking at the lineup right now, looking at what they could potentially add, which is hopefully a top six guy on the left side, I think the ideal spot for him would be the 13th forward, but is there a chance that we see him start the season as your first line left wing? I mean, that's a stretch. He's coming off of an awful season and honestly, a couple of rough seasons for Anthony Pavilion, but we have seen the Penguins put worse up there on the first line with Crosby. Need I remind everybody of Dominic Simone and his stints up on the top line. And honestly, even Evan Rodriguez, before he actually, you know, put it all together and became what he is now, he was given a lot of opportunity on the top line. If they are determined to have Drew O'Connor be a third line left wing, which is honestly the best role for him where he can take advantage of matchups. And I think that's why Mike Sullivan wants them there. If possible, there's really a chance that we see Anthony Pavilion get some time with Crosby, at least early in the season. I'm not saying that I am, not saying that I am putting my foot down for this to actually happen, but I'm seeing that as a possibility where as before I didn't even think of that. You're okay, 'cause there is a pattern there. It's also not for getting heading into last season. The Penguins didn't know if they were gonna have Jake Genssel for opening night. They had just kind of restocked their depth with a bunch of NHL, NHL tweeners, and who started on Sydney Crosby's left wing at training camp, Vinnie Hennistroza, who ended up not playing a single game with Sydney Crosby. So I wouldn't be shocked to see Pavilion start there at camp, maybe get some preseason action up there, see where that takes them. I doubt it goes into the season, but also if you're mentioning Pavilion, I wouldn't be shocked if one of the young prospects gets that sort of chance. Like you said, Dom Simone, or Evan Rodriguez wasn't a prospect, but again, a tweener guy at the time. None of it would shock me because the Penguins have shown and Mike Sullivan has shown and Sydney Crosby shown. This is a sort of, at least at this stage, the specific stage of preseason training camp, early season is a pattern that they'll throw not randos, but sometimes pretty random people up next to Sydney Crosby and see how it works. Again, I think we've had this discussion before, some of Crosby's best line mates, aside from Jake Genssel and Chris Coon is kind of our who, who, really. - They're Pascal Superstars. - Like Pascal just played great player, great face for the locker room, not the kind of guy you would peg next to Sydney Crosby. Cin goes for Coon, it's for the most part. He's a great player, again, a great locker room guy, but in a vacuum, would you really play him with Sydney Crosby? And Cin goes for Brian Russ right now. I mean, great player and obviously a great locker room guy on another team, is he on their first line? Probably not. He's just gonna contribute, probably as a second line player, depending on the team up to the first, but because it's the Penguins and because it's Sydney Crosby, you're throwing, not anybody up there, but guys that can keep up, and you never know who that could be, especially when it comes to untapped potential, like the prospects the Penguins have right now, or even Anthony Beauvilla, who's coming in on a new team. - Yeah, this might involve a lot of moving and shaking that I don't think the Penguins might wanna do, but you could always put Raquel on the left side there, bump down Rust and play a guy like Valteri Pustin on the top line. There's a shot of that too. I mean, Pustin was one of those early training camp experiments a couple of years back, where he got the first week or two with Crosby and Jake Genssel, so you never know. Obviously, we have to wait and see what happens at training camp here in a couple of months, but I do think that whatever happens at the top of the left side, unless it's Beauvilla, in which case, I take back what I'm saying about it being a biggest strength, but if you look at the Middlesex then, of bunting, second line, and Drew O'Connor specifically third line, we can leave the first and fourth out of it for right now, that middle six left side, I think is their third biggest strength behind center and top six center, excuse me, and the right side of the defense in its entirety, because I think that leaves very little questions with Jackson Ivey on the third pairing. (upbeat music) - If you're an athlete, you know the greatest motivator of all is the fear of letting your teammates down. After all, a team is only as good as its weakest link. So you owe it to those wearing the same jersey as you to be your best every time you step on the field. That's why there's no vape in team. When you vape, you can expose your lungs to toxic chemicals that can damage your lungs. If you're a step behind, the team's a step behind, brought to you by the real cost and the FDA. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) Let's move over and talk a little bit about some prospects because 'tis the season, right? The summertime is when we like to dive into prospects. A whole heck of a lot and we've done that a lot. Really since the draft and development camp over the last couple of weeks, the athletic Scott Wheeler released his top prospect list, including a top 100 skaters and a top 20 goal tender. So he separated those two. Three penguins receiving mention in these lists. The highest being Brayden Yeager, the only skater to be ranked in the top 100 skaters goes 58th overall. Joel Blunkfist makes the list for goal tenders at 15th overall and Sergey Murashov doesn't make a list, but he does get honorable mention, the goal tender, the Russian goal tender honorable mention in the top 20 goalies category for the athletic Scott Wheeler. What are your thoughts on these rankings? Did he miss anybody? Do you think somebody is being a little bit disrespected? Or do you think this is about right that those are the three guys that you would expect to pop up in the national line? - That sounds about right. I mean, you do consider where the penguins' prospect pull ranks, it's usually fairly low. And there have just been a ton of great prospects showing up in other teams across the NHL. And for the penguins, I mean, yeah, they're adding and they are super proud of the group that they have and they have high expectations for the group that they have. This sounds about right. I'm actually a little surprised to see Murashov get a honorable mention like that concerning his seventh round pick and it's just now reaching North America in a practice capacity. We'll see what the near future holds for him. But overall, I would say it doesn't surprise me. I'm not gonna say a guy like Old Pickering was wrongfully left off or maybe some of those new draft picks were wrongfully left off. I'd say it all kind of filters out properly because I didn't look at the list, but you have to consider the rest of the names on the list when you look at Old Pickering compared to number 100 on that list. Who is going to have the better future? Who is better right now? And what exactly, what was the thought process of Scott Wheeler going into it as well? So I'd say for the Penguins, it makes total sense that there's only those three because again, just Old Pickering's taken step backs and I think he's the kind of guy we sit at pretty highly in the Penguins Prospect system that we have seen for a while or have high expectations for. And also just where do you put Sam Poole in these days? Again, he seems to have taken weird steps back, but maybe isn't considered a prospect anymore. So there's little pieces that go here and there and other names are just escaping me right now, but I mean, Pona Mara and Koi Vounen, I think those are interesting ones. Maybe they could have squeezed on because again, you have to look at the rest of the players and go, who would you consider to be better, I guess? - Yeah, I think Koi Vounen is one of the ones that I was a little surprised didn't make it towards the '80s or '90s, but when you look at, you mentioned it, the Penguins have for the last handful of years who've had the 30th to 32nd ranked prospect pool in the National Hockey League this year, going into it maybe up to like 26th or 27th 'cause they've done a lot of work over the last calendar year, but even the best prospect pools, your Carolina Hurricanes, your, I believe the Arizona Coyotes were on there or the Utah Hockey Club now, but they only had six. The most any team had was six in that top 100. Penguins have one, you could argue, could have had two, but it makes a lot of sense for a team that is as low as they have been historically in the NHL's prospect rankings and then one other little piece of just cleaned up, Sergey Marshov, fourth round pick. So he does have a little bit more-- - Why did I think seventh? Where did I get seventh round? - I don't know, I don't know, but fourth round pick in the, let me double check to make sure I got this right, the 2022 NHL draft. So shout out to Rod Heckstall, he did one thing right. - Yeah, I'm just really confused where I got that from. - I am stunned that I'm stupid, but-- - Listen, there are too many players to remember where everybody got drafted. Especially late in the draft. - Yeah, I at least know he came from Russia and had not really broken in North America, literally until this past prospect camp. - I was about to say, 14 days ago was the first time he stepped foot on North American soil, but I think the one thing that these rankings outline here is exactly where the strength of the Penguins' prospect system is and that's between the pipes. It's a pretty good thing for the pens. I mean, historically, this has been an organization that likes to home grow their starting gold tenders. Mark Andre Flurry led directly into Matt Murray, which led directly into Tristan Jari, and that's where we stand right now. And you can argue with it, you can dispute it based on the way that Matt Murray's career has gone since he left Pittsburgh, the way that Tristan Jari's career has gone over the last couple of seasons, but that has led to three Stanley Cups between two of those three gold tenders. So that's what the Penguins have historically liked to do and you look at what they have now in Joel Blungfuss. A lot of people are excited to see if he gets to the NHL level this season, there's some people that are counting on him to get to the NHL left this season. And then Murshov, who's maybe a year, likely two years out, a lot of people are excited to follow his process as he makes the decision whether or not he wants to come over to North America this season or if he wants to stay over in Russia and play in the NHL/KHL, wherever he ends up landing. - Yeah, that'll be interesting to see. It's just a matter of what opportunities are gonna be provided to him. We know he's gonna have a good future at him and we'll just see where it goes. Pulling up the overall, by the way, list of draft picks from the Penguins and just add last time of many years, it's a depressing look. It is a depressing look seeing that, at least in the 2020 draft, Joel Blungfuss is there, Callie Clang was traded away. Lucas Fedkoski, I believe was just traded. - Yep. - Revas Anson's, I think, also just had his contract terminated and Chase Yeodor currently doesn't have a contract. So, there's the entire 2020 draft for the Penguins. The most recent draft pick to play for the Penguins if you're just going in pure order is 2019, Sam Poolin and Valteri Pustin. - Yeah. - Everyone since then has not yet reached the NHL. I get there's been some weird, obviously COVID happened between there, taking a lot of time away from these kids, but also some of these names you're never gonna hear again. - I mean, the Penguins haven't had very many first round picks since then either. The only two are Owen Pickering and Brayden Yeager. So, again, and you don't expect Yeager to have already been in the NHL and you don't expect a young defenseman that needs to fill out his body like Pickering to be able to be in the NHL already. I mean, Pickering's taken a huge step this year, turning pro and playing against professionals for an entire, what is it, 72 games down at the American Awe, he league level, I believe. But an entire Owen Pickering? - Oh, we stayed in Swift current all year. - This year he's going to turn. - Oh, this year he will, yes, this year he will. - This year he's turning pro and he's gonna go up against, you know, AHL talent and grown men for really the first time for an extended period. So, I'm not gonna bash on the Penguins because they've also haven't had very many opportunities to draft in those certain drafts. And also you don't expect seventh rounders from 2022 to be able to play in 2023, 24. So, you know, when I look at the Penguins prospect system, I think we've all had the same general belief is Kyle Dubas has done some pretty good work in the first, you know, 13 months since taking over the reins in Pittsburgh, but that shows you in the national eye and when compared to the other 31 NHL teams, how much work is left to be done. For the Pittsburgh Penguins to actually have a prospect system that is garnered and considered one of the at least top half in the national hockey league. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) Let's finish things off today. I'm talking about Jersey numbers 'cause that's always a fun conversation. We're not just gonna rattle off. Hey, here's the five new players who have five new Jersey numbers. There you have it. We're gonna actually gamify this, have a little bit of fun with it. Five Penguins have officially received their new numbers according to NHL rosters, who is gonna quickly become a great source for all hockey fans. They were obviously employed previously by Cat Friendly and since all of that happened, they're just going into business for themselves on Twitter. So a great follow on Twitter or X formerly known as Twitter or whatever you wanna call it. We're gonna do a little reveal slash prediction for each of these five players. And we're gonna start things off with Kevin Hayes, brought in including a second round pick at the NHL draft. He's gonna be wearing number 13, a number that he's worn throughout his career. When you think number 13, there's a couple of names that come to mind, right? Brandon Tannoff is the latest to wear that number. You mentioned Billy Garren whenever I mentioned 13 before the show. The one I wanna compare him to is Nick Benino here because simply third line center. So where he's gonna slot in. So my question to you, Horawatt, is does number 13 Kevin Hayes score more points than Nick Benino did in his last full season with the Pittsburgh Penguins? Not including that two games an injured stint when he got traded back a couple of years back, but in his final season with the Penguins 2016-17, the final full season, Benino scored 37 points. Does Kevin Hayes go over under that 37? - He'd have to go over considering what we just say he could bring. - Talked about. - What we just talked about. He would have to go over. So I'm gonna keep consistent. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and say, we've had the discussion. Once we don't have to go too much further into detail. But I would expect and hope he goes over. - Yeah, I'm gonna go over as well. I think that Kevin Hayes from a pure point production standpoint is gonna be able to be around that at least 40-point pace. And I think that's gonna be something the Penguins will have sorely missed because if you look at last year, I mean, even Lars Ehler, who was great, and trust me, defensively, Lars Ehler was fantastic. Offensively, he was streaky. I think Kevin Hayes at his best will fill in those gaps a little bit more and score more than those 37 points. So that one we both go over with. Number 24 for the Penguins next year is going to be Defenseman Matt Grizzlyk. This was a hard one to kind of parcel out and try to find one with. So we're gonna compare him to the latest Penguin to wear. The number 24, and that is Ty Smith. Will Matt Grizzlyk be a member of the Penguins organization for more days than Ty Smith? Now, Ty Smith was a member of the Penns organization for 601 days. For that to be the case, Grizzlyk will have to be with the Penns until at least February 22nd of 2026. Does he pull this off, which means basically, does he get another contract after this year? - That's what I was just looking forward to see how long that contract went. - One year. - Oh, that's right, it's just a year. Who's, didn't someone sign for two, Sebastian Otto? Okay, one year deal, left side. With the future, possibly an open-paker incoming up, sooner or soon-ish, we'll see. Actually, the entire Penguins prospect pulls on the left side. You know what, I don't know. I bet Grizzlyk is only here for a year. I like this stat. This is a fun one to watch. But I would put the money on Matt Grizzlyk being here just for the one season 24, 25, and then walking again to UFA. Maybe he has a good, nice little show me here and earns a nice contract somewhere for a couple seasons worth more than 2.75. - Yeah, for me to wanna pick the over for here means I'm gonna want him to be mediocre. 'Cause if he's good and goes back to being his best version of himself, which is what he was most of the time in Boston, there's no way the Penguins don't trade him this season. If there's gonna be a market, if he returns to being a top-line, capable left-handed defenseman and the Penguins are in a rebuild. So why would they not sell him off if that's the case? So if he's mediocre, maybe he gets another contract to hold over until pickering is 100% ready 'cause you don't wanna rush defenseman. We saw what happened with P.O. Joseph with that. Inconsistent results, of course. So maybe he stays for another year and if he does, then he just has to stay to the trade deadline in that second season, but I'm gonna say under as well, I think as of right now, I'm not pegging Matt Grizzlyk as a multi-contract dude with the Pittsburgh Penguins dude. I don't know why I use that word. Let's move over to number 25, not a big jump there, but number 25 will be Sebastian Ajo. You just mentioned it got a two-year contract. I'm gonna compare him to a forward, which is interesting, but not too many defenseman that I wanted to compare him to with the number 25 in the Penguins history, but gonna compare him to Ryan Paling, the last player, to our number 25. The question that I have for you, Horwatt, will Sebastian Ajo have a better or worse plus minus than Ryan Paling in his first season with the Pittsburgh Penguins? Paling in his only year in Pittsburgh was a minus two. Sebastian Ajo in his last three seasons with the Islanders was minus seven plus nine and minus six. So it's gonna be interesting, especially considering the fact that most people project him to not being the starting lineup on night one. - I think that's the hard part. It's gonna depend on how many games Sebastian Ajo actually plays. And if you're playing the card of Matt Grizzlyk getting traded at the deadline, that's a position where Sebastian Ajo would slide right in. There's a reason why he has a two-year contract rather than a one. So maybe there's something to be said about it. And as for being better than a minus two, can I take the push and say it's a draw? - I mean, that's a, that's a, that's a ballsy strategy there. - It's taking green. - Mine is green. - That's taking green and roulette. That's a tough one. Overall, I think I would say he does over a minus two, but not by much, just, it just depends on how much he plays. We'll see how many games Sebastian Ajo can get into. We'll see if injuries take a toll of the lineup ahead of them. There's a bunch of different scenarios that could play out, but I think overall Sebastian Ajo has been a pretty decent enough defenseman for himself. That little coming out party of a plus nine, you said? - Yeah, plus nine two years ago. - For an islanders team and a defenseman no less, not bad. I'd say he would get more of that train here than he would than being in a minus. So I'm gonna go with the over minus two and not take the push like an idiot. - Yeah, not anything against Sebastian Ajo. I'm gonna say he does worse than minus two, simply because I see the Penguins is a bubble playoff team that is going to give up pretty decent amount of goals. So I think with that in mind, the most of the offense is gonna be created by Carlson and Latang. I'm not doing too much analysis into this. I'm just gonna say he does worse than a minus two, just 'cause it's a gut feeling at this point. There's a little bit of logic behind it, but the majority of this is a gut feeling that he does worse than minus two on the season. Let's talk about number 46, somebody that is going to be beloved by Penguins fans. Blake Lazat wearing the number 46, the last player to wear that number, Zack Aston Reese. And this one was a little surprising to me 'cause I didn't remember that Aston Reese had done this well in his last year with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Will Blake Lazat score more than what Zack Aston Reese was on pace to score in his final full season in Pittsburgh? Zack Aston Reese, 2020, 21 season, his final full year in Pittsburgh, if he would have played an 82-game season that year, he was on pace for 16 goals. Blew my mind whenever I saw that. I believe he had nine in like 45 games or something of that, but would Blake Lazat this year score more or less than 16 goals is the question? - Can I be really mean and say he wasn't? Wait, was that, was he wearing 26 that year? - No, he was wearing 12 at that point. - Oh, well. - So there's an asterisk to it, but I will let it slide and say reaching the pace of, what did you say was 16, 16 goals. He did have a good year that year, Zack Aston Reese. 16's a lot, especially if he's only going to be playing on the fourth line or maybe third. Oh, I gotta go under. 16 is just quite a bit. I could see the nine to 10 range, like Aston Reese got in his 45 games played that season. Offense has just gone to die in the Penguin's bottom six last few years and until they can prove me wrong, I gotta go with the under on most goal props, point props. Lars Ella being down there should help, adding some offense to a fourth line, but the end of the day, I think it's just going to be the under maybe not by much. Maybe he can get to 15 max. Yeah, I'm trying to think of how many goals Nolichari scored last year, 'cause I know somebody that played a lot of games down there scored zero and we don't need to mention his name, but Nolichari had four goals last year on the fourth line, not a lot of offense coming from the fourth lineers, except for, I mean, Jeff Carter had what, 11? He had more than 10 goals again as a fourth line right wing. So maybe as a fourth line left wing with more talent and maybe with a more offensively inclined center, even though Lars Ella isn't going to blow the doors off of you offensively. Maybe he gets up above 10, but 16, you mentioned it, is a stretch 'cause then you're starting to get towards him being a 20 goal scorer and on the bottom line. And like you mentioned, the bottom six for the Penguins has been where offense goes to die in recent years. That's going to take a Herculean effort to switch that around, especially early in the season when a lot of these guys are trying to get used to playing with each other. So I'll take the under as well. Last one here before we say goodbye today, 72. Anthony Beauvillier will wear 72. And previously that was worn by none other than, fan favorite, Patrick Hornquist. So the question becomes for what? Will Anthony Beauvillier, who, listen, earlier in the show, we were talking about the merits of him potentially being on the first line, even though neither of us would personally put him there. Will Anthony Beauvillier score more goals than Patrick Hornquist did in his final season with the Penguins, which that total was 17? Dare you stand where he once stood? Three times Stanley Cup champion, Patrick Hornquist. No, he's not going to score 17. Even if he is playing with Crosby, I doubt he's score 17. That's the one you're starting to have the discussion of. Is this kid a 40 goal score? - Yep. - No, it's, again, I'll do respect to Anthony Beauvillier. Was his career high in a single season? - If you look at his last three seasons, he had five last year between three teams. He had 18 the year prior, and he had 12 the year before that. - Okay, so he could float around the number, it just, I feel like 17 is such a specific, also low for Hornquist standards. I just don't see Anthony Beauvillier given the position he may be playing in, hitting 17. Again, the bottom six is where offense goes to Dye and Pittsburgh. He'll have a good new center with him in Kevin Hayes, maybe, or Lars Eller again, feeding him if he's made to playing for Terry Pussin. Maybe there's a chance, I mean, Terry Pussin's got apparently an underrated passing ability. Maybe there's something to be had there. 17 just seems like a bit of a stretch. I mean, I guess he's got, never before, but he has. Just doesn't strike me as happening again, but I could be, that one I could be wrong. The more I think about the more I talk about it, but I'm gonna stick with the gut feeling of just under. And maybe not by far. - Yeah, why don't you look at his second, third, and fourth season in the National Hockey League. That's 2017 to 2020. He went 21 goals, 18 goals, 18 goals. Then he had 15, 12, 18, and then fell off a cliff after that. Or actually, you know, that was 18, was in 2022, 23, and then fell off a cliff and finished with five last season. So, honestly, if he gets back to where he was, then I could see him getting over 18 goals, but it all depends on what opportunity he's gonna be given. Is he gonna be put on that first line? If he is, then I could see him getting back to where he was. If he's put on the third line, and then becomes a healthy scratch because he's making way for some younger guys, Ponomare, Koivunin, et cetera, we've went down that list of young guys we wanna see playing the NHL, probably a hundred times so far this offseason. If he ends up being in that role, he's not gonna get to 18, but if he plays the entire season in the lineup, if he's an everyday guy that plays, you know, sometime with Crosby and sometime on the third line, if he gets power play two opportunities, then I could see him potentially scratching that 18 goal mark, but that is if he comes in and all things go right. It is a best-case scenario for Anthony Beauvilla. Do I think he hits best-case scenario this season? Even though, you know, a week ago, I was saying I expect him to be much better than people are giving him credit for. I don't think he hits best-case scenario this season. I think he bounces back, but I'm not gonna say that he bounces back to where he's scoring close to a career high in goals, even if he's playing over 20 games with a guy like Sidney Crosby. I think it's a push and it's a stretch for Beauvilla, but also because I just, I don't see a world in where he is left on the Penguin's top line for extended periods of time this season. If it happens, I mean, it'll be a repeat of the Evan Rodriguez. Hey, he's actually performing better than we expected, but also did we really want him there in the first place? No, as long as this stays at this level, it's fine, I guess. So I'm gonna go under. That's a long-winded way of saying, you know, I'd like to see it and like you mentioned, this one you're, I'm not as confident on as Blake Lozat going under 17 or 16, what was it, 16? But I am gonna go under, especially because we're, we're not gonna give a half answer here. I'm gonna go under with a, under 17 goals with Anthony Beauvilla. So those are the final, final numbers here. Kevin Hayes, 13, Mac Gris like 24, Sebastian Ajo, 25, Blake Lozat, 46, and Anthony Beauvilla number 72. But should be interesting to see what they look like on the ice come September, was still two months out of that. But that is gonna do it for this episode of The Tip of the Iceberg. Remember, you can find us on YouTube at Tip of the Iceberg or anywhere you get your podcast from. We'll see you guys next time. (upbeat music) (upbeat music)
