What they don't know is that he ran out of buns in charcoal a little while ago, and that Paul used Walmart Express delivery to get more delivered in an hour. So the only thing they know is just how good everything tastes. Walmart, your store delivered in an hour. This episode is brought to you by Progressive. Most of you aren't just listening right now, you're driving, cleaning, and even exercising, but what if you could be saving money by switching to Progressive? developers who save by switching save nearly $750 on average, and auto customers qualify for an average of seven discounts. Multitask right now. Quote today at Progressive.com, Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates. National average 12-month savings of $744 by a new customer surveyed who saved with Progressive between June 2022 and May 2023, potential savings will vary discounts not available in all states and situations. Hello everybody and welcome to the tip of the iceberg podcast. You can find us on YouTube at tip of the iceberg or anywhere. You get your podcast from I'm your host, Nick Belsky joined as always by Nick Horwatt. We got a little bit of news to kick off the week. Thanks to Rob Rossi. We'll talk about the Pittsburgh Penguins closing in on a contract extension with Captain Sidney Crosby and then we're going to touch on with the whole new world of the Pittsburgh Penguins coming up. We're going to touch on which Penguins are safe from trade speculation moving forward and which ones we expect to finish out their current contract with the organization. We'll close things out with a few off-season superlatives, a couple of fun little questions that we have in there to talk about this off-season, but we're kicking things off with Crosby. So let's get started. Everybody has seemingly talked about Sidney Crosby's future over the last week. We on this show mentioned that we almost half expected it to be a 12-0-1 press release right of Sidney Crosby has signed his extension. But according to multiple reports, including Rob Rossi of the athletic Crosby and agent Pat Prasan wanted to give Kyle Dubas his space, allow him to work the majority of the off-season here at least the very first week of free agency, shape the roster and then worry about the contract a little bit later. And everybody seemed to have a field day with that. It's been one week since the opening of free agency. People news outlets have gone out with the, well, is Sidney Crosby leaving Pittsburgh story? Where would Sidney Crosby go if he left the Pittsburgh Penguins? Like I mentioned, Rob Rossi of the athletic shuts those rumors down as he typically does, saying the Penguins are closing in on a deal with their captain. Here's the direct quote that I wanted to pull from that article saying, quote, Crosby reaffirmed to Dubas what he has repeatedly stated publicly that he wants to finish his career with the Penguins who selected them number one in 2005. The potential deal is being viewed by both sides as a quote commitment to Pittsburgh. Horwatt, what were your thoughts when you read those words from Rob Rossi on Monday afternoon? These words look familiar. Yeah. These are things that I've seen before because it was always expected. Yeah, we were expecting the 1201 signing or announcement, I guess I should say, and it got to the point where on free agency day, where nothing was happening with him specifically, I don't know if anyone caught TSN do Plinko for a couple of players across the league. Crosby was one of them and which I get there trying to have fun because free agency can have some lulls and honestly it was sort of interesting watching the other players go down the Plinko board and then seeing the talking heads debate about what their future should hold. Now, you can believe what you want in Cindy Crosby's future is best served in other towns. You might be right about that when it comes to building his trophy case. Yeah, that might be what's best for him, but at the same time, and I'll go back to what Frankie Carrado said, what's best for Crosby's own legacy is staying in Pittsburgh. Maybe it won't fill his trophy room, maybe it won't add more numbers, it won't add more awards, whatever, but what it does is adds to his legacy and following in the footsteps of the player he took the torch from, the player from Mario Lemieux. Now it's up to him to hand the torch off to whoever's next for this team, whether we don't know who that is going to be, whether it be some like Brayden Yeager, maybe someone the Penguins haven't even brought in yet. The future of the team is still pretty in the dark, but Crosby will at bare minimum be part of it one way or the other forever. You also have to remember Crosby grew up idolizing guys like Lemieux and Steve Eisenman, both of which did that. They played only on one team, so I think the Crosby thing staying in Pittsburgh goes beyond just his loyalty to Pittsburgh, his commitment to Pittsburgh, which we all knew was already there. It is also his own drive. It's just what he wants to do. He is a committed person, he doesn't like change, so all the things were just lining up that they just needed their time. There was no, there was no sweat, I think. I think many outside of Pittsburgh and the Pittsburgh media were really sweating out. Oh well, what is he going to do? Is he going to leave? Is he going to sign this extension? Is there actual talks and I'm leaving? No, I think everyone within Pittsburgh was just taking it day by day, understanding that it will get done. It was just a matter of when there's no need to worry here, there never was a need to worry, at least for me and you and for many others that are around the black and gold. Yeah, the only sweat involving Sidney Crosby is his Euro trip and how warm it was in Europe when he was over there. I mean, he's having himself a summer and that's really the only story that there is about Sidney Crosby. This extension will get done when it gets done seemingly. It is coming soon. And again, that was never in question. And you mentioned in there that you could argue or there has been the argument that maybe it's better served for his career, for his legacy to go somewhere else. I don't think so, especially when you look at the current state of professional sports, right? He's trying to fall in the footsteps of Mario Lemieux. He's trying to fall in the footsteps of Steve Eiserman. But back then, more players did stuff like this. More players just simply played because there was less movement around the league now. In every single league, there is movement constantly players, leaving teams no matter how long they've been there. I mean, just for example, look at Stephen Stamkos' situation. It's a little bit different because the Tampa Bay Lightning are still going to be a contender next year. And they just simply decided that it's time to move on from their captain. But I never have thought that Stephen Stamkos was going to go anywhere else but the Tampa Bay Lightning. But here we are. He's a Nashville predator here on July 9th of 2024. It just goes to show with Crosby, with Malkin, and with Latang, the craziness of having three players do that in this era of professional sports is, you know, it is certainly notable. And I think the fact that Crosby is the spearhead of that, everybody knew that once those other players signed two years ago, Crosby wasn't about to say, all right, well, that's fine. You guys fulfill this thing that I've been talking about for 18 to 20 years. And I'm going to go, you know, try to win another Stanley Cup. He has three. I think it's better served for his legacy because he's won everything else there is to win in hockey. He's going to, you know, break a couple more records, but closing out his career in one uniform. I think that's better for his legacy than a random fourth cup as a second line center for the Colorado Avalanche or a second line center for who else has been thrown out there. Montreal Montreal. Montreal. I mean, he'd be a top play center in Montreal, but but still he's not like he's winning a cup in Montreal, right? So yeah, you know, I think that the argument that, you know, his legacy would be better served if he went trophy hunting. He's already hunted and put all the trophies up on his shelf. He doesn't need more of them to secure his legacy. He wants more of them. I guarantee you he does, but that doesn't mean that he's willing to part with something that has as Rossi explains has meant so much to him both publicly and privately that he would throw that away to try to win one more trophy. Yeah, it's because whenever you start trophy hunting, then that's when you start bouncing around teams. You start really getting into, oh, who's going to win at this year? Okay, that's where I'm going. You start looking like, no offense to him because he did just resign with the same team. You start looking like Patrick Kane already has three cups all of them. He jumps to the Rangers and then to end of Detroit, but I think like, yeah, those are the only teams, but there's there was always talks of him going other places to land on a team that can take into the Stanley Cup. Like I think he was like to Edmonton this past off season before he signed in Detroit, which would have been a good team to go to when it comes to going for the cup because they have the best odds so far. And that's a team that's going to be hungry to go back. And I think what makes this cross with even more interesting, at least when it comes to the discussion of, oh, is he going to sign? Is he not going to sign? What's he going to do? This is the furthest in like the closest to the end of his deal that the Penguins have ever come and it's still a year out and it's still a year out. I don't know if that means that's why that the Panic set in for anyone if it did at all. The last contract he signed, or at least the latest that he had ever signed one, was his five year deal after his ELC when he signed on July 7th, those two days ago. So we are past that point of, what are we going to do with Crosby's future? He's always signed a year in advance. He's always had that met of he's going to stay, he's going to extend and he's going to be here above the rest of his career. Once this new contract gets announced, of course, nothing is official until it is announced and official, official, it'll be all just the discussions of, well, here's his legacy in Pittsburgh. Here's where he's going to stay. As he retires, what does he do next? The Penguins will, I'm sure, happily offer him any position he wants. I doubt anything in the front office would come right away, but I could see developmental stuff. I could see some sort of mentoring or coaching. We'll see. The future is going to be bright for Pittsburgh with Crosby in it, no matter if it's on the ice, off the ice in a suit, whatever it is. Yeah, and that was part of Rossi's article as well, so I encourage you, if you haven't read it and you do have access to the athletic, go check that piece out because there's a lot of insight from about a rob over at the athletic. 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Let's move over and with that, talk about which penguins are going to finish off their contract with the penguins because, you know, you look at Crosby, it's fully expected he's going to sign that extension, he's going to end his career with the Pittsburgh penguins. The penguins have a lot of contracts right now that are very long. And that puts into question, how many of these players are actually going to reach the end of that deal, or will they be traded? Because you look at what the penguins are doing right now. They're entering a weird time. They're trying to rebuild quickly. What does that look like? Who ends up on the chopping block because of that? There's a lot of one-year deals being signed this summer in particular. But before all of this began, there were a lot of commitments made by previous regimes. There were some commitments made by this front office staff, Kyle Dubas, Jason Spetson, and a lot of them. So we're going to go down through five names here of players that have some interesting circumstances coming up over the next couple of seasons. Some of them this year, some of them a little further in the future and ask the question, which of them will actually make it through the end of their contract. And let's start with somebody who I think going into this year is 100% staying on the Pittsburgh penguins for multiple reasons. But I think that after this year, it gets a little interesting. And that's Brian Rust. He has four years remaining on that contract, which lines up directly with Crystal Tang, which lines up reportedly with what Sidney Crosby is going to sign for, which is a three-year contract. But he has a full no move clause this season and then nothing after this for the next three years. Do you think Brian Rust makes it to the end of that? What was a six-year deal when he signed it a couple seasons back? I don't know. I know the team loves Brian Rust. I know he's a great player for this team. He plays really well with Sidney Crosby, plays really well with him, getting him all come whenever he gets that chance. But just considering the direction the penguins are going in, considering the cap hit he carries. And it's kind of large for sometimes an inconsistent player. And whenever you have the ability just to sort of wash your hands of it and send them wherever, there is no clauses whatsoever. I don't even know about next season, 25, 26, if that's when it would happen. I could see closer to the last two years of it being the time for Brian Rust to be sent to the happy trails. And again, it's nothing against Brian Rust. It is just me kind of looking as much as I can into the crystal ball of the penguins, which is the future isn't super bright. And if it comes time to start selling off important pieces for as big a return as possible, I know Brian Rust will be in his mid 30s. That's probably the first domino to fall, just because he's not part of the core and they still have some production left in him and is a decent amount of money coming off the cap. Yeah. You look at last season. He was a 30 goal scorer, even though he didn't reach that. If he was healthy, he's a 30 goal scorer. So by 2026, he's at the very least going to be a pretty decent goal scoring bottom six guy that if you can get some good value for in return, it would make sense to use him as a trade piece. Now I understand that there is a lot of love for Brian Rust and Pittsburgh. I mean, the guy was part of two Stanley cup teams. He was Mr. Game seven in the Eastern Conference finals back in 2016, you know, both goals being scored by him. I mean, he's a playoff performer that if he's healthy, plays in all three aspects of the game and can really help your team. Now again, the penguins right now, they're in a weird position because they're trying to rebuild, but they're trying to give the team on the ice an opportunity to play above their skis and to get into the playoffs on their own merits. Brian Rust is a big part of that, right? And Sidney Crosby losing Jake Genssel. You know, he's going to want to lead on Brian Russ. They're going to want to have him lean on Brian Russ, especially right now when they don't have that other winger on the other side of things. It's Drew O'Connor as of right now again. So I do think that there's a good chance that his trade value is just too good to pass up, especially for a team that if they're going into a rebuild right now, we'll see where it's at in the future. Again, that's what the unpredictable part of this is. Is where do they end up coming from? Like is Billy Koivoon going to be a bonafide NHL or top six guy in the near future? Is Brayden Yeager going to make that jump and make it so easily and so smoothly that it almost makes not trading Brian Rust seem like it's a misstep. So I think there's a lot of things that go into this conversation, but I do think that there's a chance that Brian Rust does not make it to the end of that four year contract. Let's move over and talk about somebody that was brought in by Kyle Dubas and the current front office staff. Eric Carlson has three more seasons left. Again, similar to Brian Rust, we all agree that he's not going anywhere this year, honestly, and I'll get into this. He's probably not going anywhere next season as well, but he has three more years that full no move clause on it. What do you think about Eric Carlson's future with the organization? I think this was pretty close to Seton Stone that last year, the deal could get interesting depending on the direction of the penguins are in because that lines up with about the time that I think Brian Rust would be sent out as well. So the penguins would have this upcoming season 24, 25, and then the following season 25, 26, lining up with the Mulcan thing to really figure it out. And if things aren't working out going into 26, 27, there here comes the real teardown. And I could see Eric Carlson being a part of that, but at the same time, it depends on how good of a player he looks and where the team is at. I would say at the moment, also he'd be an aged veteran, depending on what the first few seasons looked like, maybe you'd just kind of go, all right, fine, walked a free agency. I don't think we're uber worried about it. I could see him finishing this one out, though. I think I'd be more inclined to say Carlson finishes this one just because age, that's a lot of money, a ton of money to try and trade, even a couple years down the line, knowing what the salary cap may be. But for an aged veteran with a full no move clause, it was hard to get him here in the first place. So I would say Carlson finishes his out. Yeah, I would say the only other aspect of that would be that last year, if he's saying, all right, this is it. And then he wants to go back and play for Ottawa or he wants to go back and play for San Jose. Maybe, I mean, they might be on the upswing and with Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith at that point. But again, that's one that, you know, for the time being, there is no conversations being had about Eric Carlson on the trade block. It's a, if it's, if you're on your last season and everything else is looking like, you know, the penguins are trying to rebuild. They could use any other asset that they can. They're not going to get into the playoffs for the fifth straight season. God forbid that happens. Then, yeah, I could see him being moved on from, but not as plainly and not as clearly as some of these other players speaking of plainly and clearly Ricardo Kelle is on this list. Four more seasons on that contract and 18 no trade list for the duration. I would be surprised if he wasn't moved out honestly in the next two seasons. Yeah. This summer might even be possible. You never know. I'd say there's almost no way he doesn't get dealt before the end of the before the end of the contract and maybe if the years line up, maybe bought out at some point, I don't know. There's a lot left on it. The buyout conversation probably wouldn't happen until that until that left. Yeah. In this two year window that we're going to bring up probably with everything we talk about now, but yeah, I just don't foresee him finishing this contract here. It was long when he was given it in the beginning. I think the money was fine considering the year he was coming off of, but Ron Hexdall just was handing out six year contracts like they were candy at the time. Yeah. He gave out a lot of term that off season. You go back and look at it, Brian Russ gets six, Ricardo Kelle gets six. I think let's hang out six getting Mulcan got four and that's why it was so crazy is they were haggling over three versus four with Mulcan, but he just gave six to three other players, including a guy in Ricardo Kelle who listened. That first year that deal was great, 27 goals, 11 on the power play. Last year was not. There was some frustration with Ricardo Kelle's performance and I think as you look at him, the second that they were able to offload him for positive assets, I could see it happening, especially because you don't want to get stuck with a piece like that who, yeah, I like Raquel. I think he's a solid Mill six winger, but at the same time, four more seasons at that cap hit whenever you're trying to rebuild, you're trying to bring an assets. If you can get him to be a 27, 28 goal scorer again next year with only three seasons left, you might be able to offload it to somebody again. That might end up having to be a retained salary. I don't think a buyout would be worth it, especially you know, you probably do the calculator. It's probably out until like 2032 or something like that because buyout calculators are ridiculous, but four more season seems to be a heck of a lot to imagine Ricardo Kelle not being traded in that time. Now again, he had one down year. I fully expect him to bounce back. It sounds like the penguins do as well, but again, four more seasons seems like a lot for Ricardo Kelle in Pittsburgh. Yeah, it's just a bit much. That's all and nothing wrong with it. If he turns things around, I mean, then maybe we have a different discussion, but at the moment, it's just not as we look at it right now, it's not something that I would expect finishing up. If he turns things around, I'm of the mindset now, I'm in the rebuilding mindset. I'm saying, all right, well, what's his value now at this point? Because anything that is not nailed down and there are very few things nailed down in this organization should be thought of in that light. And you know, speaking of something to like that, let's talk about Marcus Patterson here. He's heading into a contract season. His value around the league has to be very high, but his value to the Pittsburgh Penguins is currently very high as well. He is the only, I don't even want to call it a sure thing because nothing is a sure thing in hockey, but he is the closest thing to a sure thing on the Penguins left side of the defense bar none heading into a contract here has an 18 no trade list. Do you think Marcus Patterson makes it, or I mean, obviously, there's extension talks that we would have to go through this summer, but do you think he makes it to the end of this contract before being traded? Do you think there's a chance that they say, hey, go into a contract year and we may or may not end up dealing you at some point before the deadline? Marcus Patterson is a fascinating one because there's already extension talks. Do you think he's going to stick around, but for what? But for what again, because the Penguins are in a weird spot, they're in that spot of, if they can turn things around this year, this upcoming season, well, they can be right back in the playoffs. They were for the past two years right on the cusp of it, but then he's a UFA. Marcus Patterson is then followed that up with a UFA. He's also not the kind of player you're going to approach and say, here's a one year deal. Here's a two year extension. You're just not going to do that because he is so skilled and has great talent that it would be a tough sell for him. You also don't want to feel like you're lowballing him, but then if you give him a big long deal, then it turns into why. So that is an interesting one. I would say he finishes it out. I would say he ends up getting the extension. If anything, it maybe comes clause free and if things fall off a cliff, hey, we're free to move you. We're free to move you. If things get bad, we want you to be a winner. So I could see Marcus Patterson finishing up the deal he's on now at a little over $4 million signing an extension of sorts and then going from there. It's that's a tough one to nail down, but I'm looking at it optimistically. Yeah. Would you look at who the pain ones have as trade chips as of right now, perhaps none higher or potentially bringing back more than the guy like Marcus Patterson. Obviously, you have your Crosby's, your mall kids, but those are guys, like I mentioned earlier, nailed to the floorboards, not going anywhere. Marcus Patterson on a contract year, there's a lot of teams that would overpay for his services, especially if you get to the trade deadline and certain teams, you know, I look at a team like the devil's if they were in a better position last year, though I might have been buying defensive defenseman because Dougie Hamilton was hurt. A lot of the season, they needed better defense. Obviously, you saw what they did this off season, trading out Marino, bringing guys like Brett Pesci, like Brendan Dillon. So there's a lot of teams that would certainly inquire about his services. It becomes a very interesting conversation with the contract extension talks, right? And I think that goes to show with the quote that we talked about last week from Kyle Dubas saying, this is not a tear it down to the studs operation here. The guys in the locker room are too good for that. Are the guys in the locker room too good to get rid of pretty much the only consistent performer on the left side of the defense that they have? That's going to be an interesting story to follow. And again, I don't, I don't really know the answer to it, but I do think that if you're looking at this from a pure rebuild standpoint, there is not many better pieces than Marcus Patterson to trade. And again, like you mentioned, why are you signing him to that? What should be a long term extension? That's what Patterson's looking for. That's where he's at the stage of his career that he's at. It's certainly going to be one of the more interesting storylines late into this summer as we get set for NHL training camp. The last name I have on this list, and this might be somebody that you could argue is nailed to the floorboard. But I think with the amount of years left, it does call it into question a little bit. Crystal Tang signed that contract and the social media post was penguin for life for more seasons, full no move clause for the next two than a 10 team, no trade list for the final two seasons after that, vaunted two year gap that we have right now that we've mentioned multiple times. Do you think that it is a guarantee that Crystal Tang finishes out those next four years with the payments? The Crystal Tang one is interesting because he can give you a lot of return if you feel like the team isn't going anywhere, especially down that two year window. But I think he's going to live in that same sort of Sydney Crosby mindset of penguin for life. Like that social media post said, and I could see Crystal Tang for better or worse, finishing out that deal. That's just my personal opinion again, looking a little optimistically at it, looking a little Homerism at it too. But there would be something extremely special about where 20 years down the line, all three of the core of obviously you're tired at this point and are working, other jobs in hockey. Whenever we can all look back and go, those three, much like many of the Yankees, much like many of the Red Sox way back when other legendary trios all played, all their years with one team. I think it's an interesting, interesting conversation with the Tang, especially now that things might go south, but I could see it, we're all having the conversation one day. Man, those three, just the penguins, penguins for life. Here's what they brought us, here are the numbers. Sure all the cups may have ended in 17, but memories that will last a lifetime. Even if Latang didn't plan one of them, still. Yeah, if it came down to picking one or the other, obviously you'd take Latang over Carlson for storyline reasons, but again, who's performing better, right? Last year, I think you could argue either side of those things, right? I think you could argue Chris Latang early in the season was better. I think you could argue down the stretch that Eric Carlson was better. But I think when you look at both of those two players, it gets really interesting on your blue line because if you're trying to rebuild it and that year after whatever it is, 2026, 27, and you're saying, all right, this is the year that we're going to spend and go for it. You still have $17 million locked up on the right side. And at that point, it's 35 year old Carlson, what 39 year old, 40 year old Chris Latang, wherever he ends up being at that point, it is interesting. But I think there's obviously the next two years, which I don't think anybody in that core is going anywhere for the next two years. And that is until Malkin's done. And I think there are questions that crop up. But I think if Crosby signs a three year deal specifically, I think there is some significance to that lining up with Chris Latang's deal. I do think there was some inside baseball that was happening behind the scenes between these, you know, these guys saying, you know, Chris Latang, when his contract was up, hey, if you get a six year deal, you know, Sid might get a three year deal after he's done. And then that lines you guys up to finish your careers off at the same time. Whereas, you know, you look at where the situation is now, it certainly looks like it could be that way. So Latang's an interesting one, definitely. And I think there's only one team that he would go to if he was traded, which again, lessens the chance that the Penguins want to trade him because that perceived value in return. It's probably not there because, you know, he's probably only going to be, especially at 38, 39 years old, probably only going to be on the radar of one team and that's probably the Montreal Canadiens. But again, that's taken a jump. That's just my assumption, but that is where we stand here with all of these five players that we just discussed as potentially making it to the end of their contract or not. And I think the only ones that we said are close to definite is Chris Latang and Eric Carlson. Now everybody else with this new era of Penguins hockey, this, you know, pseudo rebuild, I guess we can call it. I don't know. It's hard to label because Kyle Dubas is not committing to a tear down to the studs rebuild, but at the same time, his actions speak as if he is a rebuilding general manager. So we'll keep an eye on obviously all of these things. They're long term storylines here, but it'll certainly be interesting to see how the careers of these players are changed by the next couple of seasons of Penguin's hockey. Some decisions are easy like playing your favorite song. Other decisions are hard like choosing the right credit card, but that's mostly because the financial system is complicated. There's so many offers, rates and products, but which one's best for you? That's why we reinvented credit karma to do the hard work for you. We scan for the latest offers from our trusted partners to help you find the best financial hits for your unique situation. That way you can spend less time saying, huh, and more time doing well, anything. Download into a credit karma today and get everything you need to outsmart the system. This episode is brought to you by AutoTrader. Look around. What do you see? Cars. Lots of them. And guess what? They're probably on AutoTrader. Whether you're into timeless classics or the latest trends. If you see it on the road, you can likely find it on AutoTrader. New, used, electric, and one day, maybe even flying cars. See a car? Find it on AutoTrader. Visit autotrader.com to learn more. Let's finish things off with some off-season superlatives, just a couple of fun questions to close out the show. First and foremost, which player is most likely to be traded before this season? Now, it doesn't have to be any of the players we just mentioned, but when you look at the Penguins on paper now, is there anybody that is most likely to be traded before? Maybe not even training camp, but game one in October. I'm going to keep going toward Tristan Jari for this sort of question, as my answer. I really do. It's just the way that the Penguins, or at least Kyle Dubas, might still want to bring in a top line wanger, might still want to make moves for bolstering this team, because he doesn't want to do the full teardown, and like I said, the Penguins still have a chance of making that sneaky playoff run if they can find an extra bit of scoring and find more consistent goal-tending. I get what I just said about trading away Tristan Jari, but are they committed to? I know they signed that contract, but did they have any real choice? They were taking a flyer on the Delkovich coming in. They weren't ready for Blumquist yet, definitely. And Jari was a free agent, and again, much like Patterson, you're not going to lowball them. You're not going to say, "Here's a year so you can try it out." Even Corpusolo had to sign multiple years, so I could see Jari being among the top faces still to be dealt by the Penguins before the season starts, mostly because I think they're going to start the year with Raquel, don't see graves going anywhere, period anytime soon, and that about wraps it up for trade pieces, they dealt Riley Smith. Lars Eller is interesting, but there's still some questions to be had, and that's just kind of why I fall on Tristan Jari. The interesting thing about Jari, and I would have agreed with you three weeks ago, but I feel like a lot of time has passed, and I feel like a lot of the pieces, especially gold-tending pieces, have come off the board. Who's left? Like you mentioned it there, they want more consistent gold-tending. Not to say Tristan Jari is consistent, because I think he's actually the antithesis of that, but more so than a lot of the names that are still available, right? There's not a lot in the free agent pool. There's certainly not a lot in the trade market, and you'd have to swing another trade to bring a goaltender in. I think that's just a lot of work to be done. I'm not saying it's impossible, but I just think that the longer it goes, obviously, we've already hit past free agency, we've already hit past the first two waves of gold-tending trades. I don't see, especially, I don't see it coming in a way that benefits the penguins, because then you're looking at guys like John Gibson who know, you're putting yourself in the similar situation, if not a worse situation, with the contract and the performance from John Gibson. It is a rocky road if you decide to go with the gold-tending switch-up at this point of the off-season. It's like everything else, like Kyle Dubas is faced. It's possible, but it's going to take some really fine work from him to come out smelling like roses on the other side of that venture. That's why I go in a different direction. You mentioned Lars Ehler, I think Lars Ehler is the most likely to be traded. I would put Nolichari above him, but at the same time, I think, one, Achari has two years left on that contract, which is still unbelievable, and Ehler is on a contract year and two, Ehler had the better of the two seasons, and I think more teams would be open to acquiring his services, not only that, but giving up more for his services this off-season. I like Lars Ehler. I think that it's great that they were able to find, whether it's Kevin Hayes, whoever, somebody to go in that third-line center role so they could bump Eller down and put him in a better position to succeed, but I also think this is a team that, if they can get a third round pick, a second round pick for Lars Ehler, you pull that trigger. Or if you can get a prospect that is half-decent maybe a little bit further out, maybe a team has kind of soured on that prospect, and they're like, "Well, he needs a new system. He's in a crowded system, potentially." I think that that's the type of trade that Lars Ehler would be involved in, and that's why I think he's most likely to be traded this off-season. Yeah, I'll hate that one either, like we mentioned. He's been in those talks already. He's already been mentioned among names of penguins that could be dealt, and the year right time is... I feel like with time passing, everyone feels a bit less inclined to be traded, but we do not remember that the... I forget when the Carlson trade happened now. August 6th of 2023, but it was in August, so there is still time to wheel and deal, and to figure things out, to pull everyone out of their cottages for a day to announce trade. Yeah, for the penguins, it was a long off-season, and there's still plenty of time to do plenty of work. Yeah, I think it was the sixth. It was the first week of August, for sure, because it was right before my wedding. I was like, "Well, I appreciate you doing it now." Got it. But yeah, no, there's still plenty of time for trades to happen. I just don't know about restructuring an entire position, and that's what they would do with the Jari one, but again, we all said it as soon as the delkovich signed that deal. Oh, that means Chari is out of here, and then crickets. Part of that might be the market for a goaltender that has not performed well past January 1st over the past five seasons of his career. Let's move over and talk about this one, which new penguin is most likely to succeed or what? It's tough to tell because the new penguins that they've brought in aren't necessarily going to show on paper and show when the scoring stats success. I would say my early option is going to be Blake Lezot. It's got the two-year deal under them, so they're a little bit more confident in what he can bring, and when it comes to success in this situation, it really is just being a good player that can be useful in multiple assets of the game. It isn't just going to be a couple of goals here and there. It's going to be shutting down opposing offenses, helping out the bottom six and proving it back to some normalcy. When you consider the word success, you're thinking of, "Well, who's going to score the most?" It might be possible, and the penguins still have time to pull something like that off and make both of our answers null and void. But for now, the way I will see it is Blake Lezot should come in and play that full well round of game for the penguins bottom six. It's just needed help for the last few seasons now. Yeah, most likely succeed in their role. Nobody mistakes Jeff Carter's role last year for a role of a guy that should score 30 goals. A similar position for a guy like Blake Lezot, who's coming in to be a fourth-liner to start. Maybe he goes off and becomes a third-liner for the penguins, third-line center and bumps Kevin Hayes down, which again, would be great, especially with a young guy like Blake Lezot who could be part of that future of the penguins. He's only in his mid-20s, but I'm going to go with somebody different. I'm going to go in my gut for some reason. I feel like this player is not going to, like you mentioned, he's not going to be a 25 goal scorer, but what I think he's going to do is get back to the game that he was when he was at his best with the New York Islanders, and that's Anthony Beauvillais. For some reason, I feel like the fit here, I feel like the coaching staff here, and I feel like the opportunity here is going to all work out for a guy like Anthony Beauvillais, and I think that it's going to turn into him being, again, this is not a strong class by any means when it comes to the Pittsburgh Penguins Free Agency class, but I think that he has a chance to top it as of right now. I mean, you look at Blake Lezot, I'm excited about what the future holds for him. You look at a guy like Matt Grizzlyk, there are many questions about what he's able to do, but these are a lot of players that are looking for a fresh start to get back to what they were, and I think of those players. I really like the opportunity that Anthony Beauvillais has with the Pittsburgh Penguins, a bottom six guy that could potentially, I mean, yeah, he could end up succeeding in becoming a trade piece by the end of the season, but I do like the opportunity that he has in Pittsburgh, and I like his fit in the Penguins' new bottom six. I also just really like the idea of going against what everyone thought of Anthony Beauvillais when he was signed. Love it. This is great. I mean, everyone was down on him even whenever the rumors were going around that he was going to sign here. Where did we put him? We put him in our top 10 faces to watch. What did the Penguins do? They went out. Number two. Yeah. They put him in the top. We put him in the top three. What did the Penguins do? They went out and got him. So A, maybe our crystal ball isn't that bad. B, yeah, if he can do the thing, then he's going to be pretty good here and I like the idea of him succeeding in his role, especially considering everyone has been doubting him since the start. Yeah. And what could his role potentially be by the start of the season? Fourth line left wing. Right. If the Penguins go out and get another left winger, that bums O'Connor down to the third line and Bovillier is not going to be starting higher than O'Connor in the lineup. Fourth line left wing, a scoring left wing. If he goes out there and puts 15 goals, you're looking at that as an unmitigated success as long as he's not a complete liability on the back end. So I'm intrigued to see what Anthony Bovillier does, but I think that I would label him most likely to succeed of the current crop of free agents. Let's finish this off with most likely to make his Penguins debut first. I got three names here for you, Horawat, Billy Koivounen, who's right now skating at UPMC Lemieux Complex with the Prospect Development Camp, a Vasily Panomarev, who came over in that trade as well last year for Jake Genssel, or Yole Blungfist, the netminder that as of right now sits third on the organizational depth chart. No, he's going to be sitting second soon. If you get what you're thinking, yes, you see where my answers tie in now. Yes. Look, Jari, because I think there might be some belief that Jole Blungfist can start the season as the backup. Now, that is an extremely hot take and we'll probably get some cold water tossed on it very quickly. But if Jari is going to be my trade piece, I think that just makes Jole Blungfist the easy answer for this question, at least, of who makes their Penguins debut first. I could see Blungfist because he's already served his backup a couple of times, he could have already notched it, by the way. I mean, thankfully, no injuries occurred or anything like that, but he could have already had his first game under his belt. So they're going to go into this season, maybe he's the backup, maybe he's carrying around on the roster third string, also doubtful. The only way that he could become second string obviously is if the Penguins make a deal with Jari, which I still think is possible. So sliding him in as that easy option of he'll be on the NHL roster to start. I mean, it's possible Ponomar of Aquivan in R2, but I think Blungfist strikes me as the most likely and out of those three, I could see him playing for the Penguins first. Yeah, certainly as the fewest roadblocks, there's two guys ahead of them and one of them, all he has to do is jump one of them and he'll be a guy that starts what at least every other week. So there's certainly less roadblocks, but I'm going to go with one of the forwards and I'm going to stick with the facility Ponomar of a guy who has more experience on North American ice. I think that gives him a little bit of a head start on Villy Koy Vounen and also, you know, both of those two are going to get opportunities in training camp to potentially show why they deserve to be on the opening night roster to be in the opening night lineup. I just feel like with the experience factor for the silly Ponomar of a guy that they expected to play in NHL games last year, if he didn't get injured, I just feel like he's going to be the guy that go simply because I think they like Joel Blungfist. I do and I think he is going to get NHL experience and NHL time next year. But I think these other guys are going to get opportunities earlier in the season. I think that they want to be cautious with Blungfist because even though Mershev's coming up from behind him and even though Mershev made the trip over for prospect development camp, I do think they want to be a little bit more cautious with a goaltending prospect than they do with a couple of forwards that are one has already made an NHL debut and two has already torn up professional hockey over in Europe. So I'm going to go with Ponomar of on this one. I think it's close. I think there's a chance that any of these three could end up being the actual answer to this, but I'm going to go with Ponomar of as we sit here today. I wouldn't be shocked to see all three of them play this year at one point or another. So it's just a matter of who gets their first, who wins the race, that's all they say. I could see all three making it just a matter of when and how the depth chart rolls out. There's still an entire preseason head to and training camp to really decide what order everyone's going. Yeah, it's going to be an interesting back half of the summer. You still have the Crosby extension that will happen here in the next couple of weeks. I would venture to guess you have the goal tending resolution, which might be anticlimactic it might just be Jari Nadalkovich with, I think, a lot of penguins fans would not be happy about. And you still need a top line winger, you know, whoever that may be, whatever that may end up being, they need somebody, you know, whether that's somebody who's already in the organization and steps up and nobody's looking at at the moment. Maybe that's a koi voonen. Maybe that's a Ponomar of maybe that's a Brayden Jaeger, who knows. Or maybe they go out there and make a pretty big trade. There's a couple big names left on the trade market, but that's going to do it for this episode of the tip of the iceberg podcast. Thank you guys so much for tuning into this one. Remember, you can find us on YouTube at tip of the iceberg or anywhere you get your podcast from. We'll see you guys next time. (upbeat music) [MUSIC PLAYING]
