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I'm Chris Mack and we have got you covered live coast to coast on the Beck QL network where ever you may be in the world live inside your Odyssey app, A-U-D, A-C-Y. It's free. Download it today and whether you're just laying on the couch, sleeping off, napping off that hangover this morning, or whether you're up and Adam ready to go for a day full of family fun like some of us, however you're celebrating your New Year's Day, you can take us with you. And anything you may have missed, we had a great conversation with PJ Glasser earlier on his looks at some of today's games. Also our New Year's betting resolutions, maybe you're wondering what we're sure to be breaking in the next few weeks for New Year's betting resolutions. You can always get us in podcast form, wherever you get your podcast, just search. Beck QL daily, one hour from now, we start to dive into the NFL playoffs, I know we still got a couple tickets left to punch and we will talk about NFL week 18 in about 35 minutes or so and some line moves in particular, but we'll power rank NFL playoff frauds one hour from now. Lightning bets before we wrap up the show as well. I mentioned three massive games, Kate, let's just tackle these in chronological order over the next few moments, the next couple of segments and start with the one that feels like it's been least talked about probably because it's the least sexy matchup of the four CFP quarterfinals, Texas laying 13 to Arizona State in Atlanta, Peach Bowl kickoff just after 1 p.m. Eastern this afternoon, total sits at 51 and a half and the question in this one. And I mentioned it to PJ earlier when we talked to him is can Cam Scataboo, who's coming off a massive season or in the midst of a massive season for Arizona State more than 2,000 yards on the ground, 22 touchdowns ended up fifth in Heisman voting rise to the occasion as the focal point of this son devil's offense that's still without Jordan Tyson wide receiver and against the Texas D line that's probably the toughest Arizona state has faced this year. After what we saw last night with Ashton gente, I'm a little worried about Cam Scataboo, right? Because Ashton gente is best running back in college football all season, but he faced a really, really good defense and had his lowest rushing output of the entire year. And I'm worried a little bit that Cam Scataboo is going to be in the same boat as that. His rushing prop right now, sitting around, I'm seeing one of four plus yards at minus 120 or 110 plus yards at even money right now. I would bet the under on those if you could. I'm not sure he gets there because of how good Texas's defense is. I mean, they have the 12th best run defense of the country allowing 3.1 yards per carry. I wonder if we see Scataboo maybe use a little bit more like as a pass catching back just to kind of keep Texas on their toes a little bit, but this defense is going to be the best defense that Arizona State has seen all season. And that's likely going to be a problem for Scataboo, especially like you mentioned without Jordan Tyson, because that allows them to at least have a threat in the passing game, the downfield game, and that's taken away without Tyson. So I fear that Arizona State is going to become one dimensional, just like we saw with Boise State last year. And if that's the case, Texas is just going to swallow them up. Yeah. And you're not going to be able to find the same place downfield against Texas's defense that you found against Iowa States. Now, the other side of the coin here is Arizona State's run defense is also elite, top 20 in EPA per rush, but the pass rush, getting after the opposing quarterback, bottom 10 in the country, according to pro football focus, also outside the top 100 in red zone TD percentage allowed. This is why I start to come around to laying the points with Texas because, and I thought PJ made a good point talking about the under in this game because you do have two really good defenses in this game, but I look at it as everybody has been doubting Quinn Ewers. And look, there have been times this year where he has not looked good, but I think they've revolved more around the ankle injury than they did anything else. I mean, when I see a healthy Quinn Ewers out there, I doubted him coming into the season Kate, but I'll be ready to admit that he has been much better when he's been good. And when he's been healthy this year, he's been much better than what I expected 358 yards against Clemson for big time throws to to turn over worthy plays according to PFF. And this is an Arizona State defense that if they're not turning the opposing quarterback over is not gonna be able to limit yours because again, that shaky pass rush that I mentioned. And yours typically only turns the ball over when he's experiencing a lot of that heavy pass rush because he's not great at kind of ad living or or generating off the fly. The two games that Texas has lost this season against Georgia, they got to yours like the pass rush was there. There was a ton of pressure on them all game. He's not going to see any of that today against Arizona State. So he's going to be able to sit back and go through his reads and find his guys and be joined. The only way I see Arizona State winning this game is if they're able to win the turnover battle by margin. And again, without that pass rush, I don't think that happens, Chris. So I don't really understand the money that's come in on Arizona State. This line got up to 14, 14 and a half earlier in the week. We're back down to 13 yesterday, it was 12 and a half. I would be comfortable laying the 13 with Texas today. I'm going to, you know what, Chris, I want to trust myself and not the start to move in the line. New Year's resolution for Kate Constable being reinforced on the first day of the year. I love it. And I'm going to lay the 13. There we go. I think Texas is just going to out match Arizona State. I also wonder, Chris, like there's been the conversation throughout the week of the rest versus rust factor. But for, you know, most of the teams were Oregon. I'm not worried about the rust factor. For this Arizona State team, I am because they had so much momentum and they were thriving off of that momentum late in the season. Six straight wins. They were doing what no one thought that they could do. They were picked to finish last in the big 12. They end up putting the conference championship and they're riding off of that momentum. Then it caught, it stalls out and you have, what, two, three weeks off. I wonder if that's going to affect them at all in just having to kind of restart today against the best competition that they've seen all season. Yeah. I think we saw a little bit of that last night too between Penn State and Boise, right? Boise came out flat. And at times you're sitting there watching wonder, eh, would they have been better had they played this game a week after the Mountain West Championship when they could have kept that momentum rolling? I think the same could be said for Arizona State here and it's a really good point. Um, so yeah, I think we're both going to end up trusting Texas to cover this one at 13. That feels like the play here in the peach bowl at one Eastern. Let's pivot to the Rose Bowl out West, five Eastern to Pacific, the granddaddy of them all, Ohio State against Oregon. So we still get the traditional old, big 10 versus old Pac 10 matchup, Ohio State against Oregon, even if it is a rematch of a big 10 conference game from back in October, Ohio State favored by two and a half total up to 56 and a half now. Clearly those of us that believe in the over are steaming that one up and it continues to move throughout the week. I don't think that is necessarily surprising. I think a lot of people expect this game to be similar to that sort of instant classic that we got week seven in Eugene. I have been a Will Howard doubter. Speaking of quarterbacks, I've doubted since the summer, I doubted when yours a little bit. I doubted Will Howard a lot and Will Howard had his best game of the year against Tennessee. He embarrassed, absolutely embarrassed. Like what when you were a little kid, your parents would do to you when they spanked you in the middle of the McDonald's play place, right? Like you started getting mouthy and they dragged you over there. It was just a smack right on the butt. That's what Will Howard did to a really good volunteers defense in the first round. 311 yards and an efficient 311 yards, 24 or 29 with three touchdowns. That's the Ducks last time he went over 325, 326 yards, Kate, 28 of 35 with a pair of touchdowns. But all we remember and myself included, I harped on this for a month and a half after it happened was sliding with zeros on the clock, right? And so we harped on that and we harped on that and we harped on that. Meanwhile, Will Howard just keeps showing up and gutting out wins with the massive amount of talent around him, especially in the receiving core, Dylan Gabriel is really good. I mean, he's 37 years old too, but he's really good. He was third in Heisman voting for a reason. He had his best game of the season against Ohio State's defense, 340 yards and a couple of touchdowns, the third one on the ground. I think this thing flies over 56 and a half. I bet it over 55 and a half earlier in the week. I don't know who pulls this one out. This this may be the one that goes to overtime and we get another instant classic between Oregon and Ohio State. But I think if it does happen that way, if it does play out, it's not going to be because of these defenses. It's going to be because of these quarterbacks and just the wild amount of talent on each teams in each team's receiving core, I should say. So I don't disagree with you, Chris. I'm just not sure I can get on board embedding that because I can make a case for the under in the sense that Ohio State's defense since that last Oregon game has been phenomenal. It hasn't allowed a passing touchdown yet this season. In that first game or since I'm sorry, since that Oregon game has not allowed a passing touchdown in that first matchup, 18 explosive plays between the two teams. Again, Ohio State since then their defense has clamped down. They haven't allowed a whole lot whatsoever. There were just a lot of mistakes that Ohio State made in that game, even if we forget about well, how we're sliding at the end and they allowed just things that they don't typically do. So two fumbles in that one, they had eight penalties for 70 yards. Oregon played such a more a cleaner game in that sense, no fumbles. It just there's so many different aspects to that game where Ohio State failed and I think Oregon was able to take advantage. And I'm just wondering or I'm curious as if that's going to be the case again today with Ohio State's defense being more focused and not allowing those big explosive plays on the outside. So I wouldn't necessarily bet the under, but I'm not sure I can get on board with the over either. I do lean towards Ohio State winning this game though and getting revenge on. Looking for a financial institution that has fewer fees, better rates and gives back to the local community. As one of Colorado's largest credit unions, Belco offers great rates on products like our free boost interest checking and lower rates on loans, including our home equity choice line. Bank virtually any time anywhere through our online banking and our mobile app. Becoming a member has never been easier. Visit belco.org or stop by any Belco branch. Membership eligibility required, equal housing opportunity, all loans subject to approval and short by NCUA, Belco. Banking for everyone. Oh, could this vintage store be any cuter, right? And the best part? Except discover. Except discover. In a little place like this? I don't think so, Jennifer. Oh, yeah, huh. Just covers accepted where I'd like to shop. Come on, baby. Get with the times. Right. So we shouldn't get the parachute pants. These are making a comeback. I think. Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide, based on the February 2024 Nielsen report. We're in from the first matchup. It's just again, there's just so many factors in that first game that Ohio State really did not play clean, even though they had a chance to win at the end, the score, final score like it's so close that they were clearly in that. But if Ohio State cleans up a lot of those things, I think they win this game. Yeah, there were only four tackles for a loss combined between these two defenses in the first meeting. To your point, Ohio State's defense has cleaned up a lot since then. Friends defense has still struggled at times, especially against the run, right? We saw Kateron Allen and Nicholas Singleton handle them decently well in the big 10 championship game, even if Oregon held on to beat Penn State in that game. We saw them have trouble with Ashton Gente, more trouble than Penn State's defense just had last night. If Oregon continues to struggle against the run, I mean, you've got Henderson and Judkins, another one, two punch in the backfield from another big 10 team that could provide problems for Oregon. And that could also open things up downfield because if Chip Kelly and Chip Kelly has done everything possible in his game plan this year to attack the weaknesses on the other side of the ball, he's shown to be very flexible in helping Will Howard find the holes in the opposing defense. But if he decides that today is the day to run to set up the pass, I wouldn't blame him at all. And if that grinds this thing down a little bit, maybe we do have trouble getting to that 55 and a half, 56 and a half total. But I think eventually it opens things up on the back end for Howard to attack over the top against that Oregon secondary. And again, it'll be because Chip Kelly and the Buckeyes have sort of set things up with the run. Again, the Ducks defensive line ranked outside the top 80 in defensive line yards allowed on the ground, 63rd in EPA against the rush. So I think if Ohio State sticks with the run game, does what's laid out right in front of them, unlike Penn State at times yesterday and attacks Oregon on the ground, it could open things up. The one other thing that I will keep an eye out for as far as, you know, you talked about Ohio State cleaning things up, that secondary plays very, very physically. And if there's a DPI or two that goes against Ohio State early, how does that affect Dylan Gabriel's ability to attack downfield? Yeah, that's a great point because that's a lot of what has killed Ohio State defensively when they do struggle is those penalties. And you have to imagine Dylan Gabriel, like he said, he's 37 years old. He's played a lot of snaps in college football. You know, it's how to take advantage of stuff like that. And I think you'll definitely see that today if we do get some of those penalties early from Ohio State. Adam Savoy's ACC officiating crew will be working it today at the Rose Bowl. We got the Sugar Bowl to talk about as well. Maybe look at CFP natty odds, some national championship numbers as well. And before the end of the hour, we take a look at NFL week 18 line moves as well alongside Kate Constable. I'm Chris Mack in for Joe and Sam today here on Beck UL Daily presented by BetMGM. This message comes from Roan, Roan, Premium Performance Clothing, designed for life and motion. The holidays call for more, more connection, more care, more focus on what matters. Roan delivers with clothing for every moment, active at the office or at rest, built to it. This message comes from Roan, Roan, Premium Performance Clothing, designed for life and motion. The holidays call for more, more connection, more care, more focus on what matters. 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Chris Mack and Kate Constable break down how they're betting today's College Football Playoff Semi-Final matchups, featuring Arizona State as massive underdogs against Texas in the Peach Bowl, and Ohio State as a slight favorite against Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
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