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This holiday, give yourself the gift of great health with Just Thrive, for a limited time saved 20% sight-wide at justthrivehealth.com with promo code POD20. And a happy new year, happy 2025 to all of you live coast-to-coast on the Beck QL network. It is Beck QL daily alongside Kate Constable. I'm Chris Mack, in for Joe and Sam this morning. We got you covered for NFL week 18, some of the line moves that have continued to happen throughout the week as we gain a little more clarity about who's playing, who's not playing, who's playing for what, those have continued to move. We'll get into those one hour from now. In just a moment, our new year's betting resolutions, and for most of the second hour, a deep dive into the three remaining college football playoff quarterfinal games at the Peach Bowl at one o'clock between Texas and Arizona State, at the Rose Bowl at five Eastern between Ohio State and Oregon, and at the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans tonight at 845 Eastern between Georgia and Notre Dame. Also, before we get to lightning bets at the end of the show, we'll power rank our biggest NFL playoff frauds with the playoffs now, just a little more than a week away, like I said, a couple spots left to set. But we're going to have new year's resolutions, Kate, right? We're going to do this. I know for a fact that after today, we have a big family get together every year on New Year's Day. I will have a little hair of the dog, I think as you called it earlier before we started the show, to get me through the day. But tomorrow, my wife and I will commit to what we call dry January. We don't call it that everyone calls it that lots of people try it every year. Last year, it turned into damp January because there were a couple weekends where I may have had a sip or two, but I may I think I did like 27 out of 30 days or something in dry January. Those kind of resolutions are great as long as you can keep them. You know, I'm going to get on the peloton so many days a week. I'm going to do this. I'm going to do that. I'm going to get out and get so many steps in. All the kind of stuff that we make resolutions about, but we've got to have some betting resolutions as well. Some things that, you know, we learned lessons throughout 2024. Like PJ was saying just a minute ago, he learned some things about his Alabama football team. We've learned some things betting certain teams and certain players, certain trends maybe. What's the number one betting resolution for Kate Constable in 2025? Well, first of all, Chris, I do just have to say, I have set resolutions in years past and I don't follow through on them. Like, does anyone actually follow through on the resolution? Anyone? Right? Like, no, no, they don't. So I have no normal resolutions this year. I damn January is kind of a thing for me. I'm not going to like cut it out completely if there's a special event or if there's like a really good bottle of wine being served or something like that. Like, I got a dabble in that, right? But I like how it went from special event. I like how it went from special event to, well, there's a sale at the wine store and this is a 95 rated cab. And I mean, I'd be doing myself a disservice if I didn't have a sip. I mean, what I wanted me exactly, it would be a disservice to the wine industry. I'm not going to drink a white claw on a Tuesday night. Like, that's not happening. Okay, nervous that really ever happened in my world. But okay, white claw on a Saturday, not doing any of that stuff. I did make a list. I have three betting resolutions for this year that I actually sat down on my couch and like, thought about these a little bit more so than any other resolution. So my first one is no live betting because I tracked all my bets throughout the football season this year. And I mark, you know, if they're if they're a straight bet, if it's a side total, if I bet live, I lose everything when I bet live because I get too excited. I'm just betting impulsely. Like, I just want more action or something. I feel like I can see how the game's going and have an edge. No, it doesn't work. So my number one, Chris, no live betting for Kate Constable this year. It's not going to happen. Yeah, you know, I don't go in on live bet. The only time I go in on live bets usually, unless I have a stated, you know, a stated tactic in mind going into a game is when I'm chasing, right? Like, I had, I had, what was it yesterday? Oh, I had LSU in the points had LSU gone down at some point and not looked good against Baylor. I could have jumped in and started trying to catch up or counterbalance or, you know, arbitrage myself into something. You got to just know when to cut your losses and live betting can. That's a good call. I like that. Just no live betting or a lot less of it. Yeah, a lot less of it. Yeah, I think that's good. My second one, Chris, I'll just rattle through some of mine and then we can hear yours. Yeah. My second one is trust myself and not others, right? I do them where I do the research. I have a good handle on these games, but a lot of times I'll be influenced by people I deem as as sharp betters or smarter than me because I'm not I'm not a sharp better. I'm not moving lines, right? They see my event come in and I don't think the books are like, Oh, okay, constable. Just bet on Penn State. We're moving this line. No, so sometimes I get influenced by people on social media that are on the opposite side of me and either I don't bet the game because of that because I think I'm wrong or in connotation, I'll flip to that side because they know more than me. They're smarter than me. And then when when I was on the right side to begin with and that bet wins and I didn't bet it, I like there's no worse feeling in the world, right? Yeah, that got to trust your gut, right? And then you know what? If you go down, you go down swinging, but you believed in the bet. I'm absolutely with you on that one. Yeah. Okay. And then my last one here to wrap it up win every bet. Why would I not? Why would that not be a resolution? Just to win every hit every bet in 2025. It's going to be pretty hard to do. There'll likely be some of them downs, but if you're not if you're not trying to win, you're probably not going to win. So that's my my third one is just to hit every bet I make in 2025. I like that the belief in yourself that that you can keep that I know full well, there will be something that will go wrong for me today. So I can't even get on with the win every bet in 2025 resolution. But I like I said, I appreciate the positivity. You got to set the goals high. So here's the one that maybe you guys can talk me through this. I don't know. I don't know if. Oh, welcome to the make a jingle with Chris Kringle podcast. Today, we're talking to Jan from Toyota all about Toyota. Hi. So Jan got any ready to come us? Yeah, we have a great selection of vehicles, including Tacomas. After my big job, I'm taking the Mrs. Delta, Florida to go surfing. Did you say Florida? Can the elves and I go to? Dealer inventory may vary. Offers are subject to change throughout Toyota fun, which ends on January 6th. So you're participating Toyota dealer for details. Toyota. Let's go places. This message comes from Roan. Roan, premium performance clothing designed for life and motion. The holidays call for more, more connection, more care, more focus on what matters. Roan delivers with clothing for every moment, active, at the office or at rest, built to empower and made to last. Discover gifts worth giving at Roan.com. That's R H O N E dot com. Roan forever forward. I'm going to avoid parlays. Okay. I'm just I'm making that because here's the tough part for me. Some of my biggest wins in 2024 were parlays. Same game parlays in particular. I had what I still remember where I was when sedan Rafaela and Tristan Casas both homered against the pirates at PNC Park and it sent the game over and the Red Sox one on the Moneyline. It was the it's the same game parlay that will be etched in my brain forever because it was a huge win for me. But here's the problem. I probably placed a hundred other same game parlay bets this year. And you know how many of them hit? Probably two. I mean the odds on hitting your same game parlay. Look, the odds are what they are, right? Math is math for a reason. And if the math ain't math, then it's cause same game parlays traditionally. I know they're tempting all the featured ones are up there at the top of your bed MGM app that you look at and go, Oh, yeah, I could see. Oh, yeah. And then if that happens, this could happen. No, for me, I got to stay away from the parlays and the same game parlays in particular. I'm going to try and focus more on straight bets and not trying to ramp up the odds. Look, I'm guilty of it even today. I placed the bet last night on I had a bet on each of the four college football playoff quarter final games, Kate. And so I could have just placed those four straight bets and been done. But I said, Oh, yeah, but Chris, what if all four hit? And then I look at the number and it's like 13 to one. And I'm like, well, just sprinkle a little bit on there just in case. And I said, No, you're throwing money away. What are you thinking? Be happy with three out of four if that's what it hits or, you know, 50 50. Hell, that's pretty successful in this industry. And yet there I am sprinkling a little bit more on these parlays every single time. Yeah, but you're one leg down, Chris, right? I imagine you took Penn State yesterday. If it wasn't an invention, you're not helping Kate. Okay, okay. I'm like, this will help. I'm with you. Every Sunday, I do a touchdown parlay and I put like five, 10 bucks on it, but it's five, 10 bucks to be in like 10 grand, right? It's never going to hit. It's never going to hit. So if I put 10 bucks down throughout the entire season, what's that? I don't know. Multiply it by 18 weeks, right? That's 180 bucks. You could have just put on a straight bet at some point that you had a whole lot more about. Yes. Yeah, it's not going to hit. I've gotten close and close is like two legs still losing. And that's not really that close. So are you tell yourself, right? You tell yourself, well, if I get like the first, you know, like you said, if it's a 10 leg touchdown score bet, well, if I get to like seven, I'm sure the cash out will be decent. Maybe I'll just take that and it's no stop rationalizing ridiculous parlay. That is my number one sports betting resolution for 2025. Stop with the parlays and place your straight bets. Like Kate said, that you believe in and leave it there and take the extra little sprinkle that you would have put on a parlay and just put it on that straight bet that you already made that you wholeheartedly believe it. There are people that bet MGM right now saying, Chris, shut up, let them place the parlays. No, I'm just telling you, for me, what I'm doing is staying away from the parlays this year, or I'm going to try to anyway, because it's a resolution. And like Kate said, we all fail at these, but that's that's my one big resolution. A secondary one, probably a little less committed to this one is fade the public. And you can go to bet ql.com and you can see, you know, the betting splits. And we tell you about the information we get from bet MGM every single day here on the bet ql network that tells you about the splits and whether there's more money coming in from the sharps or whether the public is heavily favor favoring one side or, you know, sometimes it just makes sense to fade the public. And I'll be looking at a game, you know, in particular, you know, Georgia Notre Dame will use as an example. And I'll say, I don't know which way go on this one, tight spread, money line, what do I do here? And I'll just look at the public and I'll fade the public. And I'd say more often than not, that has worked out for me, especially this year during the NFL season, especially during the NFL season. Yeah, I think that's a good good way to go, Chris. And it kind of just tells you where to bet if you're unsure on something but want a little bit of action, just go against the public. It's, it's, it's a coined phrase for a reason, fade the public. Exactly. Yes. We can guarantee too that all of these resolutions will will be gone. They will just vanish into thin air like Kaiser Soze by the end of January. College football playoff bets. We've got three massive games today. We get started with Texas, Arizona State next right here on Beck UL Daily. This message comes from Rome, Rome, premium performance clothing designed for life in motion. The holidays call for more, more connection, more care, more focus on what matters. Rome delivers with clothing for every moment, active at the office or at rest, built to empower and made to last, discover gifts worth giving at Rome.com. That's R H O N E dot com, Rome forever forward. This message comes from Rome, Rome, premium performance clothing designed for life in motion. The holidays call for more, more connection, more care, more focus on what matters. Rome delivers with clothing for every moment, active at the office or at rest, built to empower and made to last, discover gifts worth giving at Rome.com. That's R H O N E dot com, Rome forever forward. Oh, could this vintage store be any cuter? Right. And the best part? They accept discover. Except discover. In a little place like this? I don't think so, Jennifer. Oh, yeah, huh. Discover is accepted where I'd like to shop. Come on, baby. Get with the times. Right. So we shouldn't get the parachute pants. These are making a comeback. I think. Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide, based on the February 2024 Nielsen report.
Chris Mack and Kate Constable discuss their betting resolutions heading into 2025, including avoiding parlays, stop getting influenced by people who bet the opposite side, and more!
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