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BetQL Daily

BetQL Daily Hour #1 (12/31)

Joe Ostrowski and Sam Panayotovich recap and react to last night's action, which featured the Lions taking down the 49ers with another standout offensive performance before next week's winner take all game against the Vikings. Plus, a look at the updated Super Bowl and Offensive Player of the Year Odds, going into Week #18. Then, we take a deep dive into the NFL Futures market before the last week of the regular season, and discuss if anyone outside of Josh Allen can take home the MVP. Plus how Week #18 effect the NFC Title Odds and Playoff Picture. The hour wraps, telling you what to do if you received a gift of one free bet, heading into the new year and what are your betting resolutions for 2025? To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Duration:
47m
Broadcast on:
31 Dec 2024
Audio Format:
other

Joe Ostrowski and Sam Panayotovich recap and react to last night's action, which featured the Lions taking down the 49ers with another standout offensive performance before next week's winner take all game against the Vikings. Plus, a look at the updated Super Bowl and Offensive Player of the Year Odds, going into Week #18. Then, we take a deep dive into the NFL Futures market before the last week of the regular season, and discuss if anyone outside of Josh Allen can take home the MVP. Plus how Week #18 effect the NFC Title Odds and Playoff Picture. The hour wraps, telling you what to do if you received a gift of one free bet, heading into the new year and what are your betting resolutions for 2025?

To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Enter text messaging rates apply, sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, Utah and other states where prohibited. We will be here at 10 AM Eastern time in the Great Brad Powers 11 AM Eastern time. You know we're going to go over all four college football playoff games including all the bowl games today leading up to tonight's playoff game. Lot going on. It's a futures Tuesday, so there are a few awards in the NFL that we think are for grads. Some that are probably done that we will discuss as well, NFL futures. There are a few to wager on that need to be decided in week number 18. We'll tell you if there's any value on any of these underdogs here. Big surprise Sam. Favorite one. Favorite covered. Last night. Detroit Lions. So the Fade God was an action once again who we told you bet San Francisco Moneyline, a number of ways yesterday. But Detroit, I was holding on hope that that cooler heads would prevail. They did not and I have different takeaways than I think most people do with last night. High scoring affair. The over was easy. Week 17 favorites go 15 and one straight up 13 and three against the spread. Favorite win favorite cover over easy 74 points. Jared Goff throwing passes in the fourth quarter of a meaningless game. I angered angered the Lions fans last night. Oh, good. Are they still nowhere near the vicinity of your New York Giants tweet that now has 18 million views or whatever. But I'm not even watching the game. We're out last night, third quarter. My buddy text me golf's golf still in. Why? Why is he in? Why is he still dropping back, taking content, gives us getting absolutely blown up in the fourth quarter, taking hits in the head. What? I don't get it. That's how you play football, Joe. That's how you play football. What happens if Jared Goff breaks his leg in the fourth quarter last night? You know, like we don't want to go there, but it was extremely possible in a meeting football game that meant nothing. He is still out there and the Lions fans who have won nothing in 70 years are telling us this is how you play winning football. Okay. You got lucky. You got lucky as far as I'm concerned last night and it was funny the reaction because the post game stuff, just all the immediate stuff that I saw, Oh, praise Dan Campbell, praise Dan Campbell. Is he going to be coach of the year? See, this is, they told us when Dan Campbell told you something, he means it. That's exactly what he's going to do. It doesn't mean it was right again. It was a meaningless game. It meant something to them. That's what they believe. They're still buying into everything that Campbell is selling. The message has not gone stale yet. Usually this happens at some point. My takeaways are negative on Detroit. I don't know about you. Good for them. They got the win. Okay. Now you're on a short week. You played your starters for the biggest game of the year and a short week. So let's see how that goes. You can't stop anybody. Do you think that playing these defense more is going to make them better? Here's what I saw Sam. I saw Brock Purdy of the most passing yard. He's had all his season and he had two bad interceptions late. There was an overthrow and basically threw into triple coverage and Kirby Joseph, who's had a great year turning the ball over. He picked him off a couple of times, 377 for Purdy. He's had all season, 10.8 yards per attempt, phenomenal. You take away those two picks. You look at the other numbers. It was definitely a top three performance from Purdy. A San Francisco offense, missing CMC, Noa Yuke can make this strong argument. Those are their two most dynamic players on offense and they put up 475 yards on you. We're at 75 in a meaningless game for them. My takeaway is the Lions are not going to the Super Bowl. They can't stop anybody and no matter who it is, it's a shootout. I've got some more defensive numbers that we can go over, but not even the best quarterbacks around. They are putting up numbers. This is a San Francisco offense that has had their issues this year due to their injuries and they had their way with you. You tried as hard as you could to put away a team that has six wins, and it took almost the full gamut and you gave the numbers, right, 475 yards, San Francisco's offense. How about 29 first downs? Just right up and down the field, the entire game, and that's a team that isn't good enough to even sniff a division, let alone a postseason berth. So we will see. We will see. I'm happy that the Lions fans are as cocky as they are. Heaven won a big game since 1957, 1957, and they are reinventing the wheel in a meaningless game in week 17. I'll tell you what, if I'm Minnesota, I'm Kevin O'Connell right now, I am licking my freaking chops, thinking, Oh, that's what San Francisco did. We have Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, TJ Hockinson, Jalen Naylor. Good luck. Come stop us. And you notice when they hung that spread last night, first number Detroit minus three. Mm hmm. Mm hmm. See it in last. Did not last. Yeah. Minus. They came in a Minnesota. Right. I'm just going to go back there. What do you think? All these two and a halfs out there, you've got to lay a dollar, $20, 25. I could see us going back there. What do you think? Sure. Whatever. I'll take three and my line. Exactly. About this total. I bet MGM has a 58. Did you see it open 52 for an idling? Yeah. 52. Yeah. Insane. It was. So it went up six last night. So. Right. It went up six points. Oh man. This is going to be a great one. I can't wait for it. Sunday night football. That was the obvious option there. So mentioned favorites 15 and one straight up 13 and three against the spread in week number 17. Thankfully week number 17 is now a wrap. All shares this favorite team is one 72% to be specific, 71.8% of games entering the final week. The highest winning percentage for the chalk since 2005 second best since the NFL adopted a 16 game schedule in 1978 that according to ESPN research, it is wild. What do you want to, you know, the last month or so it's 73%. The favorites are hitting 73% I can't can knock anybody going with these money line parlays with all the favorites just wild. Numbers that I was looking at on this line's defense since week 13, okay, since week 13. So that takes up for most of the injuries that they have since week 13. The lions EPA per play on defense dead last number 32. Wow. Yeah, EPA per drop back since week 13, dead last number 32. That is against the following quarterbacks that started on Thanksgiving, okay. So Caleb love Josh Allen Caleb again in Purdy last night. That is a five game sample, including a lot of their injuries on defense as they've piled up throughout the course of the year. They are dead last EPA per play on defense and you look at the potential matchups. I mean, week 18 massive, obviously it's going to be the one or they're going to end up being the five. If they're the five, they're going to go on the road likely to Tampa Bay, which would be, I think a very high scoring affair there. And then the one they get to relax and it's funny because they need to relax. They need to rest. They need to keep guys healthy, but they decided not to rest last night. I just can't get over that. Whatever. Lions also four to one to win the Super Bowl. One of the best odds at bed MGM, so Casey, 375 Detroit, four to one, Buffalo, five 50, Baltimore seven, Philly seven, Minnesota nine, green Bay 16. And then the Ramley bat 25 to one to win it all. Are you betting lions four to one to win the Super Bowl with that defense? I'm not betting them to win the NFC. No, hell no. Do you think they get out of the NFC? I hope not last night. I didn't really care, but now I want them dead. Yeah. So they are, we'll get into futures coming up at about 10 minutes. They are the second favorite for the Super Bowl, chiefs back as the favorite now. Yeah, it looks like across the board, across the board, the chiefs are your favorite. The lions price at bed MGM is four to one as the second favorite, the clear cut favorite in the NFC. They're the only team in the NFC that's top four as far as the Super Bowl odds go. All right, Sammy, a few other nuggets, certainly of note that came out yesterday in the NFL. More and more, we're going to hear coaches reveal certain stuff. A lot of it's going to be later in the week about the quarterbacks and the starters. And we're kind of reading between the lines right now, but we don't have to read between the lines with Dave Canales. And I thought this was interesting because he comes out yesterday and says, Brace Young's going to play. All of our starters are going to play. I got the sense that in week 17, they were kind of like, whatever, seasons a wrap. We accomplished what we needed because half of their defensive starting unit was out and they got smoked by Tampa Bay. So I found that to be an interesting nugget and we're going to be talking, especially late in the week when we're here on Thursday and Friday, more and more about what these coaches are saying than any other week on the calendar. And the big one, I'd say, Saquon, they're locked in the Eagles with the number two spot. And Adam Schefter comes out yesterday and says, I'd be floored if Saquon Barkley plays. Of course, Saquon, 101 yards away from the Eric Dickerson record. He's going to run for 220 yards in this game if he plays the whole way. I know. The Giants are not going to stop him. And it was so funny. Costos and I had Sunday were laughing at the prop on Barkley, the rushing prop. It got as high as 117 and a half. And you're thinking, huh, it's a big number. Hmm. Not really. Not really. Not really. We got there with ease. They can't tackle. They can't stop anybody. So he's going to get out there, break the record. And as somebody holding Philly stock to win the NFC, I just hope he stays healthy. But apparently, health doesn't matter. And it's so funny, like, we made comments and we talk about a lot of stuff on the show. I could care less if the Lions are healthy or not, but to think that it's a good idea to play a lot of your valuable players in a meaningless game, to think that's a good idea. I don't know who you're kidding yourself. To think to playing Saequan Barkley in a mostly meaningless game is ridiculous to me. I hope they win. I hope he stays healthy. If he doesn't, though, the Eagles have nobody to blame but themselves. Nobody. I mean, we came from an existence where we had to cover and talk about Tom Thibodeau forever. And what did the Bulls always do? They won a lot of regular season games. And then all of their star players got hurt in the playoffs because he wore them and drove them into the ground. I just hope I hope that the league has its best players healthy because we all want the best product on the field. I hope these guys knock on wood. I hope they all stay healthy. That's all I'm going to say. That's all we want, right? We don't want these guys to get hurt, but it's crazy to me the risk against the reward in these games that really don't matter all that much. The reaction today is just so idiotic. It's just results based. You're going to see it everywhere. Oh, Campbell is right again. Look at Dan Campbell. I know it's risky, but he was right again. It didn't matter. And they're going to say, oh, it mattered to the players. I saw it in the post game last night. Well, it mattered to the players. Players are stupid. There's a reason players don't make these decisions because they're going with their heart and their emotions. That's why you need to remove that. You need to bring other people in. You've made this question, made this statement all year long. Their season is going to end on something stupid that Dan Campbell does. And I kept thinking about that during the game last night. Can't wait. They got out of it. You better win week 18. And if they do, they're going to say, it's because they played their guys last week. CYA mode. Well, they got lucky last night. All right. NFL futures. What about the line? What are they going to do in the playoffs? What's up for grabs heading into the final week? We'll get into that next show. Oh, Sammy Pete, this is the VEQL network. Ready to level up? Chumba Casino is your playbook to fun. 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Membership eligibility required, equal housing opportunity, all loans subject to approval and short by NCOA. Belco. Banking for everyone. Joe O's Sammy P. It's an NFL futures Tuesday, so we'll go over these big college football day. We mentioned that with the college football playoff starting tonight, a bunch of interesting games going on today, and of course, the other three games, New Year's Day tomorrow. Happy New Year's Eve to everybody listening, everybody watching, betqlnetwork.com for the Odyssey app. Watch us Twitch.tv/betqlfollow the show on X @betqldaily. All right, Sam, we mentioned that Detroit is the second favorite Kansas City, the favorite now for the Super Bowl KC plus 375 Detroit plus 460. That's the best price that I see out there. Then we get to Buffalo and Baltimore rounding out your top four, not a surprise to anyone. Philly comes in as the fifth favorite, second best in the NFC at plus 750, Minnesota plus 900. This work is interesting, so I just named the top six, all nine to one or shorter. Then there's a big drop off. Then it gets the tier of Packers, Rams, and then a massive drop off down to 40 to one from 16 to one with your bucks, your chargers, your commanders. What do you think about the very top? How they ordered this with Casey Detroit, Buffalo, Baltimore, Philly? Is that right? It makes sense. I mean, it all makes sense, given the math and given the home field, at least for now. But I think the one team that's still very interesting in terms of pliability or flexibility with the number is Minnesota. What happens if Minnesota beats Detroit and where does the number go? You can find them. You said nine to one, other books have double digit odds. If they beat Detroit and they have the one seed, get the buy, and every home game will be in their building until they lose or win, whatever. What's the price then? If Minnesota beats Detroit, what's the number? Because you have Detroit as the favorite in the NFC and the second favorite to win the whole thing for one reason, not because of the roster, because of their path. And right now Detroit controls its destiny. Beat Minnesota, you have the one. But if that doesn't happen in a coin flip game, that Minnesota price is going to go from 10 to one all the way down, five to one, four seventy five. I don't know that you flip them in terms of, let's put Minnesota on the true line to win the whole thing and let's put Detroit down online, what, six or whatever. I don't know that we're there because there is a lot of lion liability. People have been betting the lions since the summer to win the Super Bowl, to win the NFC. They don't need to write any more lion money. But where does the number go on Minnesota from nine, 10 to one? Where does it go if they beat Detroit? Does Detroit, if Detroit loses, they're the five, okay? So that means what? You're probably going to go to Tampa Bay in the first round and then you're going to go to Minnesota, okay? That's not easy. Does Detroit fall below Philly as the two, Detroit the five? Should. Given the path, I mean, this is a huge scenario for them, which is why I mean, looking back and so dumb that they played their starters. So dumb, that's how we play football, you four eyed virgin. I'm like, okay, chill out, chill out. I'm going to need hearing aids by the end of the show. But my ear is going to be bleeding. It's Joey. Can this one of them? Can this come up? Come at you? I know. We can this muted. No, I have him muted. Good. Understand. I mean, it's just bet the favorite nerd, it's bet the favorite. Don't overthink it. Okay. Yeah. Got it. One guy goes, all you do is money line the favorites this year. So you do. So you bet the other thing. Oh, yeah. Yeah. How'd that go in the first month? He's right. I mean, he's he probably has more money than I do this year. Maybe not though. I dude, I still like I woke up this morning and thought he really did that. He really played all of his guys. Is there not? Okay. We were talking about it during the break. Is there another coach in the NFL that that's doing that last night? No, I don't think so. I can't come up with one. Nobody plays anybody in the preseason. Did he? He probably did probably played every the entire game. And I just feel like we've learned a lot. We have a lot more intel now than we did, you know, even five years ago. And we know what the right thing is, boy, he got out of it, call him Riverboat Ron, whatever. He got out of it. It worked, but when you keep pressing your luck, there's going to be a time when a decision goes against you. It just feels like he has all these high leverage moments. And one of them, it's a fair point you continue to bring up. You keep going back to lines, but you keep bringing this up because you see one of these high leverage moments going against him. And then that's when the tower collapses. They're going to have, I'm trying to figure out what's the worst case scenario. And it's really difficult to imagine what it is because we don't know how it's going in one full, but I picture something where the lions are up by two or three. They're at their own eight yard line. It's fourth and one. And they go for it and don't get it. And the other teams like, thank you, let us, let us waltz into the end zone from the eight yard line and win the NFC championship, you know, well, at least he's himself. I look, I will say this, okay, I do make fun of him a lot. And he has his team playing the way that they're supposed to play. Good for that. Good for them. He's not Brandon Staley. He didn't Staley used to go any, many, many mo deciding whether or not to go forward or not. If you laid out 10 scenarios, Staley, it felt like would go half the time and then not go the other half. The one thing about Campbell is he is unapologetically himself and people like that. People like that he is who he is. And there's no doubting what he does. I still meant if I was a lion's fan right now or somebody holding a lion's NFC or Super Bowl ticket, I would be terrified of that guy. They are who they are because of him in a lot of ways. But that I believe will be the end of their season because of the way he is. And we'll see. I see how it plays out. I would love to see Minnesota win, Minnesota gets the one. They have that home field, which is phenomenal. And then it's Detroit at Tampa Bay in the wildcard round, team they lost to in week two. Team that can stop the run. I would love to see that. Love to see that matchup, not a, not a great home field for Tampa Bay. But now you're not hosting games for the most part unless things really fall your way. And that's been the thing, golf indoors, golf at home. He's done well on the road recently and that's probably something that is worth being discussed. Certainly last week at Chicago when people are like, Oh, it's golf outdoors, golf in the cold. He was just fine. And then last night at San Francisco, played the entire game, it's going to be interesting. But yeah, no, this based on that game on Sunday night, these numbers are going to change a lot. And who's going to be the third favorite in the NFC? I don't know. It might be Philly. I guess there's a chance it's Detroit if they end up being the five after being the favorite in the NFC all season long, it's really interesting. All right, we've got the NFC North to be decided, but the bucks are heavy favorites. So the bucks are in that minus 13 to minus 1400 range. And the Falcons boy, how big was that Sunday night finish eight to one for the division. Tampa Bay has a one game lead, but if they end up tied, remember, Falcons sweep. So Falcons end up winning the division is a worth taking a shot at eight to one. You need the Falcons to win and the bucks to lose. I will not. I don't think Tampa loses as a 13 point favorite MGM 13, other books, 13 and a half pinnacle 14. I don't believe Tampa is going to lose the Spencer Raller. I don't see you. So that's, that's a no for me. I, I don't know that there are many bets to make in these division markets, but I want to kind of pivot quickly. I assume you're not going to bet Atlanta to win the division. Right. I mean, you're not. I'm not. I don't. I don't. And then the only other one is you would need Baltimore to lose the Cleveland. Okay. Maybe it's a conversation if they say, no, we're going to Jamis, not TTR. Then it's a conversation because Pittsburgh's 25 to one for the division and we're talking about crazy things happen in this league, so you never know, but if Jamis, then we could have that conversation maybe later in the week. Well, I wanted to go here since we're talking futures in this segment. Did you catch what Troy Aikman said last night about the MVP? Yes. Yep. I did. He comes out on national television and says he has a vote. He's voting for Joe Burrow to win the MVP. And I did a radio hit as I do every week in Vegas. I did one last night and the host says, I bet Burrow 10 days ago at 201 and he says, I don't think it wins, but I had to pluck it. I had to bet the 200 and now you can find Burrow in that 20 to one 30 to one range. I don't know that it wins, but here's the thing about Burrow and I think it's, I think it's fair. You can't find anybody, man, whether it be national TV, the newspapers, the internet, social media. Does anybody not like Joe Burrow? He is so, if you did a likeability test, he's in the 95 percentile and every time the Bengals lose, it's the coach, it's the defense, it's the kicker, that guy can do no wrong. And I'm not saying like, like, drop everything we're doing and unload on Burrow to win the MVP. But there's something to be said about the way he's perceived and the way he's talked about, the numbers speak for themselves. He has MVP numbers. The problem is the team is very average. And he's not the reason for that, but he's been insanely successful this year. Troy Aikman, Monday night football, Joe Burrow is my MVP. I thought that was a wild, wild comment to me. How many times this year have I told you if the Bengals had a better record, he's no doubt DMVP. A lot. Yeah. I mean, there's no doubt about it. I understand where Troy's coming from and Troy, what Troy is also saying there, but it didn't want to do it in the middle of that game on a national platform. But what he's saying is it's not Joe Burrow's fault that his defense sucks. It's not his fault. There's literally nothing he can do about it. The man is not on the field when that happens. That's what happened this year to their record. That's what happened in the first half of the season. There's an outside chance that they sneak in and we'll tell you how long the shot it is, but that was something. It looks like the Bengals are not going to make the playoffs. That's what common sense tells us going into the final week. Here's what we do know. Burrow's probably going to be the passing leader. He has about a 250 yard edge over golf right now. He's probably going to be the touchdown leader. He has a three touchdown lead over Baker and Lamar, 42 passing touchdowns. My God. He has a big game on Sunday. He's going to hit 5,000. He's 300 in what 59 yards away. My math is correct. 359 away from 5,000. He's got 40 plus touchdowns and single digit picks. He's the reason they even have a sniff of the postseason. And the voters want to make him an MVP. He's going to win an MVP at something like you're right. Everybody loves it. So much. They like his hair. They like his outfits. I think he dresses like Ellen DeGeneres, but people love him. People love him. Like he can do no wrong and in a market and an award scenario where it's decided by people. That guy has a shot. I'm not saying it's going to happen. I didn't bet it. I don't really care. But when Troy Aikman says it, you have to pay attention. What would you rather bet burrow 30 to 1 MVP or bangles playoff 16 to one or are they correlated? Does he win the MVP if the bangles make the playoffs? I still don't think he wins, but clearly the 200, the 150, the 100 to one were never the right price as the books, the books gambled and said he's not winning it. They're not making the playoffs and they will get decked on that. If he does win the MVP, the books will get crushed. I still don't think it happens, but it's a hell of a story and it makes for a very fascinating market because you realize the price now is a lot lower than a hundred and 200 to one. Made in the season, these monster numbers, we're not saying it's winning like Flacco last year, but that was week 13. Flacco was 200, 250 to one for the comeback player of the year and look at burrow now. Now, he's the fourth favorite behind Alan Lamar and take one, Barkley. Joe, Sammy P, with you, you know, we got an interesting question about what to do with a free bet. We're going to address that and betting resolutions. Joe Oh, Sammy P, this is the BECUEL network Joe, Sammy P, with you on a New Year's Eve. Thank you for hanging out, watching us on Twitch and YouTube following the show at BECUEL Daily on Twitter, Sam at SP shoot. I'm at Joe Wastrowski. We'll get to some possible betting resolutions. Maybe you should take a look at it. If that's a thing to you. I have my own thoughts into that in a quick moment. But a loyal listener and viewer to the show reached out and we figured that it would be worthy of a conversation. Listener Brandon, he's been checking the show out for years. He posed a question and I thought this was interesting. I have a feeling that we're going to be coming along the same lines with this, but I know this is a position many of you have been in before, especially if you're going to a new book. You get a big free bet. Here's Brandon's question. It was, okay, I won a $500 free bet from one of the big domestic sports books. How do you guys typically approach free bets and what's the best way to get peak value? $500 is higher than a normal unit for me, so I want to maximize it as best I can. Here's the catch, Sam. He reached out to me late last week, you know, holidays going on, we were only here Monday and Friday and then we come into the new week. He's got to use this by tomorrow. It's got to be used by tomorrow. He said he has until Wednesday to use that, which makes it really interesting. As we're talking about NFL team futures, player futures coming down to the very end. You've got these college football playoff games. What is your approach? It's a $500 free roll. How do you handle it? There are a lot of people out there that would just say, I want to double that or I want to increase that. So they're going to take a minus 250 minus 200 money line. Some will say I feel really strong about this side, this prop, whatever, and they're going to try and double their money, get to a thousand. And then there are some that are going to go for broke. Let's try to bankrupt this place. What would you do? Well, I sent the squad a text of a free bet that I made last, well, it would have been May of 2023. So I guess I could say two mays ago, whatever. It was the Miami Heat to win the East and they ended up winning the East. I take free bets very seriously because you don't get a lot of them. And I think it's a chance to turn their lights out. And I can't bet that this sports book anymore because of what I did. Do you want to read what I did? Because I sent it to you. I see it. Yes. Yeah. I can't tell which book this is, but this was the whole thing was free. I cannot. Yeah. I got thrown out of Caesars. They did pay. They did the free bet. Well, I mean, I did what most people don't do because at the time, Massachusetts was trying to recruit everybody to their books. So this book was giving you a thousand. This book was giving you whatever. And then that book gave a first risk free bet up to $1,250. It was a weird number. Wasn't a thousand. It wasn't 2000. It was 1250. So I approached it as you are giving me a free 1250 to bet. And if I lose it, I get it back. Do you want to tell the people what I did? You bet on May 5th, you bet the Miami Heat to win the Eastern Conference at plus 950, which resulted in a total payout of $13,125. Whoo. Nice move. You took a shot on a future. That's what you did. Didn't take a dog in a specific game. You got a nice long couple months sweat out of it. And that was a terrific hit, man. Nice work. We don't bet though. We don't gamble on the show. You know, we don't. I should have victory left that one too quite a bit. I can no longer play there, which is my fault. That's the problem. If you win, like, I think what you should do is take the Jake approach bet a parlay. Like a correlated parlay that's probably going to win, like a team to win a championship with a golfer to win the Masters or something like that where you take that 500 bucks and you try and turn that 500 into 10,000. And if it loses, you have no risk. This is a chance for anybody to take a shot. That's what I would do. And it's what I've done. If I want all of them, no, but I'm clearly ahead as you can tell. They might kick you out though. If you win, that's the risk you run. If you were to bet, you know, Jake Paul to beat Mike Tyson and the Rams to make the playoffs and Scotty Sheffler to win the Masters. If that wins, there's a very good chance that they never let you bet there again. But you just take screenshots of your bet. You make sure that you have everything in order. You have all your T's crossed and your eyes dotted and you have everything in order to where if you lose, you have, or if you win rather, you have the receipts and you can take them wherever you have to take them. But that's, that's what I would do. What would you do? I would do the same thing, man. Listeners to the show, you know me as well. I would try to find something like this, but you don't want to go too crazy where it's just a pipe dream, either. We don't need to find a 50 to 1, a 75 to 1 or anything like that. But no, you saw value in this, like figure the number was wrong, and you saw the upside at about 10 to 1, and he took your shot. That's I think the correct approach. That's the way to go. Like he would be cool to show some way, look, I could win $100,000 on a bet, but it's probably not going to happen. But like, you know, I'm, I don't have the same approach as everybody else does. I know for me, and I know for you, like, okay, you, you play a huge Moneyline favorite. And now you have 750, as opposed to $500 in the account. Is that going to get you excited? Is that going to make you think that you really got one over on them? No, I'm not saying you have to have that. Maybe you just want the 500 bucks, but man, that's, yeah, I would take a shot. What would you do today? I'm not giving advice, but would you look at NFL? Would you look at college football, Notre Dame? What are they now after beating Indiana? No, I'd go, let's see. I'm looking at the NHL market on teams that win the Stanley Cup. That's where I feel early. Baseball. That's a long sweat. If you want, you could do that. That's what you're looking for. Yeah. Like, I think maybe Paul Skeens, the one that's on young, maybe a four to one turn that 500 into two grand. Here's the thing. It also puts you in a spot like when I made that bet on Miami, I was able going into that seventh game where the heat actually beat Boston in the garden. I was able to, if I wanted to make a huge hedge position because it was to win the east, not to win the title. So I mean, you gave the payout. I could have bet thousands on Boston money line and came out of the wash up no matter what. Now, I didn't hedge it. But if you look at a team like the Dallas Stars at 10 to one or the Colorado Avalanche at 13 to one, that's where I go. I look for the double digit, the 10 to 15 to one range, Jake, you brought up, who was it? Michael King to win the Cy Young the other day? I did. 20 to one. Okay, 500 to 20 to one. And then if Michael King becomes the Cy Young favorite in July or August, then you just bet two other guys. And now that $500 free bet puts you in a spot to profit, like that's, that's how I approach it. Bet a future at a good price that can potentially put you in a good spot down the road. It's not about winning. It's about being in a position to win and potentially bet off it or hedge it or you can't really middle a future. But that's, that's how I roll at least. Yeah, no, I'm with you there. You could do boy, I'm thinking about parlays and like the college football playoff, what we talked about in the, in the first round, just do all the favorites guys, just do all the favorites. It's probably going to hit. And it did end up hitting. Let's see. If you did Notre Dame Moneyline in Ohio State minus two and a half, now you're a plus 281. If you have an opinion on Boise or Penn State, Texas, Arizona State to cover, like that's, that's not the worst idea because if you add one of those, you're going to be better at six to one already. If you want a good sweat over the next couple of days. But we're in agreement that you would, we'd go with some sort of a future or parlay where you're looking at a good payout, a hundred percent, whether, yeah, it's six to one or double digits, but not a crazy long shot, but something where you can make them shake. Right. Ohio State with Sheffler's 20 to one, Notre Dame with Sheffler's 31, state title. Okay. I mean Notre Dame's plus 650 at that MGM for the title. I thought they might be a bit short of their fifth favorite. I guess that makes sense because they're a dog tomorrow, but you could also, you could also bet the Kansas City Royals to win the Al Penn at 22 to one. Let me, let me do some stuff. There we go. You just go for it. You go for it. They don't give you free money every day. I'll bet 500 to win 500, bet 500 to win a lot and see what happens. That's our advice. That's what we would do. I, you know, not saying do one of the bets that we were talking about, but we were just, you know, just spitballing some idea off the top of our head. All right. Are your resolutions guy? Do you ever do resolutions or are they dumb and yeah, they are. Yeah. Go ahead. What? Was that a tease or was that a very short question in a very short window? Uh, no, it was a question I was asking while knowing the answer, I'm going to start going to the gym January 1st, like Dan Campbell, no, I already stated yesterday. Oh, did you? No, people like a lot of new faces yesterday, which, oh, well, here's the thing. It's over in two weeks. So whatever these people that come out like January, if you want to do something, if you want to make a change, make the damn change. And I'm someone who push, pushes stuff off, do it then, but yeah, yeah, I'm not a resolution guy. What about betting resolutions? Have you considered that? Like I feel like we talk about bad habits a lot and that was early on in our betting careers, right? Like we've kind of removed a lot of that. More favorites in the NFL, apparently, apparently, because you, but you know, when you do that, what's going to happen? Uh, what's going to happen next is, uh, we're going to talk college football. Michael Felder will drop by all four games of the college football playoff. The rest of today's slate next. This is Ben QL daily.
Joe Ostrowski and Sam Panayotovich recap and react to last night's action, which featured the Lions taking down the 49ers with another standout offensive performance before next week's winner take all game against the Vikings. Plus, a look at the updated Super Bowl and Offensive Player of the Year Odds, going into Week #18. Then, we take a deep dive into the NFL Futures market before the last week of the regular season, and discuss if anyone outside of Josh Allen can take home the MVP. Plus how Week #18 effect the NFC Title Odds and Playoff Picture. The hour wraps, telling you what to do if you received a gift of one free bet, heading into the new year and what are your betting resolutions for 2025? To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices