Meet Flip, she's one half of a flip flop. That's me! Who got left behind at Celebration Key. Carnival's exclusive paradise in Grand Bahama. Uh, I chose to stay here. It really is paradise. So now, Flip spends her time lounging on the beach, swimming in the lagoon... And eating! The only thing more impressive than my appetite are all the dining options. Yeah, have you tried food service to your cabana? Ooh, yum. Flip, where'd she go? Book your cruise vacation to Carnival's Celebration Key. A paradise you'll want to lose yourself in. Ships registry, the Bahamas and Panama. At Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think, with Capella University. Learn more at Capella.edu. It's Jim Kramer here. You're listening to the opening bell on CNBC's Squawk on the Street. Don't miss a minute of the action. Happy New Year, everybody. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm David Faber with Jim Kramer. We are a post-line of the New York Stock Exchange. Carl has the morning off. Let's give you a look at futures as we get ready to start the trading year, as we say. And as you can see, we are looking for a nicely higher open. And that's where our roadmap begins this morning. Markets are in rally mode to start the New Year trading. This after stocks did finish what is the best two-year stretch we've seen since the late '90s, even despite a couple of down days there to end the year. Also, a head wall straight awaiting Tesla's delivery numbers. They could come out. You never know with Tesla. They could come out as soon as today. And we'll bring them to you, of course. And we're also going to stay on top of development, surrounding that deadly New Year's date. Truck attack in New Orleans and the explosion of the Cybertruck as well outside a Trump hotel in Las Vegas. Let us though, start with the markets again, after what was a very strong year last year, particularly for the S&P. And in many ways, Jim, I'm so happy to have you back. See you, my friend, happy New Year to you. Happy New Year to you. The diversion between the equal weighted S&P and the S&P itself was significant once again. I know many hedge funds are happy to measure their performance this year. Equal weighted, not the S&P index. Because almost nobody could beat the 24 or so percent performance. There it is, 23.3% of the S&P. That doesn't include dividends, by the way. What do you think? What do you think? Well, first of all, MAG7, 33.5% of the S&P at the end, 66.5, the rest. I think a lot of people got the MAG7 wrong. I think it's possible, something I want to talk about tonight. Maybe we're going to be in an era where there are four and five trillion dollar stocks. Because the numbers keep going. I like to sometimes think about what goes right versus what goes wrong. And the reinvention that I keep thinking about these companies, it's endless reinvention. So I just keep thinking people want to count them out. But then I realize they work in an environment where there's no recession. They worked in an environment, by the way, there was going to be a recession when it looked like the mini banking crisis two years ago. But the stocks that really led were very hard. I mean, when you look at some of those stocks that led, say, in the S&P, Palantir, Palantir, just keeps showing up. Right, we all know, right. This 350% is our recall. Right. Although now we're starting from zero again this year. Yes. Today, everything's zero. But that's a retail stock that people like. Yes. Then Vistra. Once again, you've got this nuclear theme, which is way overdone. Who would have thought a year ago, though, Jim, that Vistra, Vernova, and Constellation Energy. I spoke about this on Tuesday with Mike, as well, Mike Santoli, that they would be the great performance this year. I mean, there's always something that surprises us. Don't know what it's going to be this year. You don't. I mean, because remember it was charging stations. We also had-- that's not forget quantum computing, which is another one. It's time-making. It may never come. I don't know. But Scott Strasek, who I think is the foremost executive when it comes to nuclear, CEO of GE Vernova, sat right there and told us, look, 1930. You know, 2023. 2024. 2023. No, 2023. 2033 years from now. 2033 years from now. No one, listen. Everyone think there's going to be small form nuclear reactors. Small modular reactors. There's one in Canada and stuff. But I just don't want to encourage people to do these things. Not encourage people to do quantum. Don't want to encourage people to do nuclear. Stick with the facts. All right, sticking with the facts means what then. Encouraging people to do what as this year is. Okay, so let's look at the fourth, the fifth best in the S&P. United Airlines. Okay, now these historically have been in trades. The airlines typically do not have discipline. They never take out capacity. They did take out capacity. It was hard to add capacity because the problem was bowing. So you get a stock that's very big and you say to yourself, it's only at nine time series. That's what I'm looking at. I like that. You know, look, you can go find Texas Pacific land, which is this bankrupt railroad from a long time ago, and it's got Permian oil, target because they do have a pipe out of out of Permian from Nat Gas because there's too much Nat Gas. But I come back and I say, you know what, let's just go with companies that are not overvalued. And I think we'll do fine. Really? All right. Well, speaking of one that perhaps some believe maybe is Tesla, which had a great year as a stock, of course. Not for much of the year, but towards the end, as we all know, we did get those numbers on deliveries. Let's get over to Philippo now. Find out what they were, Phil. I see the stock trending down a bit. They're trending down because you have the first annual drop in deliveries ever for Tesla. We'll talk about that in a little bit in the fourth quarter. These deliveries are shy of expectations. For the quarter, the company delivered 495,570 vehicles. The street was expecting deliveries of 504,770, and they needed to deliver at least 515,000 to have full year deliveries top what they were in 2023. Obviously, that is not going to happen for the year. Tesla deliveries come in at 1.789 million vehicles. Remember, in 23, they were at 1.81 million vehicles. So there is your first year-over-year decline. Not a huge surprise that that was going to happen, guys. The 515, almost everybody, said it's going to be tough for them to get to that level. The question now becomes, what do we expect for 2025? Remember, Elon Musk in some of the conference calls after financial results in 2024 indicated that, look, I think he said he thinks that sales could go up or deliveries could go up by as much as 20% to 30% in 2025 as they roll out lower priced models. They start to make advancements in terms of robo-taxi technology. But clearly, these numbers alone in the fourth quarter, shy of expectations, 10,000 shy of what the street was expecting essentially, 495 versus 504. And again, the first year-over-year decline in deliveries for Tesla since the company really started ramping up production back in, what, 2011, 2010, et cetera. Yeah, Phil, interesting to note as well. BYD reported its numbers. Now, it doesn't sell all EVs. The overall number was 4.3 million EVs and hybrids. I think EVs came in at about 1.76. I just mentioned it because, of course, it is such an important competitor when it comes to this market for Tesla. Yep. Right, and you put up a great point there that the BYD numbers, the hybrid business, is huge for BYD. And that's where they're making a lot of gains in terms of their deliveries and sales outside of China. In terms of the EV business, China is where they are red hot. And China is where Tesla is feeling pressure. There have been some reports that their registrations were up as much as 7.7% in the fourth quarter in China, which is an improvement. But the market's growing faster than that, David. And that is really going to be what we see a lot of focus on for electric vehicles, especially when it comes to China. How quickly is the market overall growing? And then what's BYD doing? What are other Chinese EV companies doing? And then what's Tesla doing? Right, of course, as you know better than anyone, I mean Musk had said, if you want to own my stock, it's not about how many cars I sell, right? It's about full self-driving, robo-taxi and robotics is what he has been saying. 100%. 100%. It's all autonomous vehicle technology. The robo-taxi, the development of that vehicle, as they start to roll that out. What does the fleet look like? What is the take rate when they actually start doing that? When do they start doing that, David? They've indicated that 2025 is going to be a huge year for that. Let's be clear here. Waymo is already out with autonomous drive vehicles in a number of markets around the country. Not huge numbers, but it's growing. And Tesla's not even out in the market yet. So that's going to be a primary focus in '25 in addition to the traditional business, the EV business where lower priced models are the key. And we've said this time and again, guys, when it comes to electric vehicles, you've got to get that down lower than where they are right now. Even the Model 3 and the Model Y, you've got to go lower in order to entice buyers. Yep, Phil, thank you. Phil, with those numbers from Tesla, as you see, the stock is off about 3%. After, of course, Jim, a great run, particularly after the election of Donald Trump. I think it comes right back. I remember it's absolutely true. Waymo is local. But I think people are thinking, well, Tesla, you know, we talked about it. They have better data in terms of full self-driving. They actually have data. They just aren't in the running. But what happens if President-elect Trump says, you know what, a federal interstate, we're now going to allow that. And the whole country folds, I think. So that's what people are betting on. Yeah, and their full self-driving is making enormous leaps in terms of using generative AI in the way that they are. Right, wait, this is too great. Waymo versus what they have. I mean, they have a different approach than Waymo. They have an approach to have a brain on the car, and a brain. Right, and much because famous, of course, and fully admits, famous for making estimates in terms of when we'll get there for full self-driving if they haven't. But I think there is a lot of optimism around it. And I think advances they're making from, you know, whatever it was, 12.3 to where they are now and out. And I think there are a lot of people who just feel, look, he's got the year of the president. So something will go well for him. There's no give or that a get, so to speak. It comes right back. It comes right back. A lot has gone well for-- Right. The volunteer and Tesla are both proof. They just, yeah, they just, because they have tremendous retail and retail is not, which you really recommend owning Palantir at 50 years worth of revenues. So it's turning out right now. There is a rule of 40 that we use to be able to figure out the actual value of an enterprise software company that really does emphasize growth versus the pre-castable on growth. And it's the best. It's not expensive. When it comes to the rule of 40, it's also, by the way, just a retail favorite, and we keep misjudging. Retail was interested in GameStop a couple years ago. Now there's in Palantir. One's very real. Oh, nobody doubts it isn't real, but many would shrug at the valuation. Yeah, at the multiple, not even to earnings, but to revenue. But I think when you look at Doge, when you look at the efficiency department, some of it is about the defense department. This is really an antidote to the so-called big five, the big hardware companies that Karp, the CEO, I genuinely believe have captured the Pentagon. It's a very important, very logical ways to be able to cut the defense budget that I think we're very much in sync with Moss. So it just, it has the Moss, or at least, or at least allocate funds differently in terms of emerging technologies and fighting the next war as opposed to the last. Wait, I mean, you've got these terrible hacks, the Chinese hack, the Treasury Department. Well, you're not gonna have a pock 'em in tariffs with the Chinese while they're busy hacking our most confidential data to the government. And I think this is something to Peter Navarro and President-elect Trump are not gonna. It is always worth mentioning just how active the Chinese are when it comes to cyber espionage. I mean, I think there were some reports. What they do in a given day is the equivalent of all the other agencies around the world in one day. They are very much focused on it. It's been a strategy for them for 15 or 20 years. - To steal corporate secrets and to spy as best they can in so many different ways on our government and to infiltrate some of our key systems as well. - Well, I think they picked the wrong president a little. - That may be true, but salt typhoon, being able to infiltrate so many of the telecommunications systems in this country, Jim. - This is just a terrible idea. - I mean, again, we hear about it, but it's sort of background noise. - Nobody cares, but this president is. - You know, at the board level, people care, obviously. Many companies are well aware of it, and you talk often about the cybersecurity firms that have benefited so greatly from the actions of the Chinese. - Well, where's CrowdStrike? Why aren't they in there? Well, Palo Alto, I don't know who they're using. I know somebody said that they'll do well. I sold a piece. - What? - Who was using the treasury or who? - The treasury used it. - I don't know. - I saw a note saying, "Cyber could benefit." I mean, look, we just know that if you call George Kirs, you know, you call him the Keshororor. Kirs, CrowdStrike, the Keshororor Palo Alto. - I think that they would have a lot more to say about this stuff. I'm gonna try to get it on the show. - It's never ending. - No. - And it just-- - But I want to reiterate, the Tesla and Palantir are going to be as loved this year as they were. - You believe that? - Yes, because now you've got a president who is just-- - And can we come back to the broader market? - We have to-- - Because they started to point to things that are-- - He's making recommendations about who should be running Germanian. - Yes, I know. Yes, the chancellor does not take kindly to him. - Yes. - And Mr. 51st State, president-elect. - Right. - Where you have Kirs, you're free. - But if a lot of Kirs state is now, is now Canada, not Puerto Rico. - Yeah, but it used to be Puerto Rico. - Yeah, but you do have a presidential in Mexico, and it's not going for-- - Jim, real quick, before we get to a break here, back to where we started our conversation. What about the MAG-7, then? You seem to want to point to the United Airlines and to things that have single digit multiples as a place to potentially be. Are you saying don't own-- - No, I'm picking some-- - Make a cap-tack, is this your biggest? - It's a mixture, I just don't think you should own every one of these. I just don't think you should, but you can pick your best ones. It's just, you want-- - You got anything you want? All right, NVIDIA's gotta be one of them, right? I can't imagine a man I'm talking to who wouldn't be NVIDIA. - You gotta make sports, bigs, bigs. - The other one would be meta for you, probably. - Okay, we can't-- - I don't want to put words in your mouth here. - We own all but Tesla, and I wish I own Tesla. - Right. - This is for travel trust, don't know a person. - But for NVIDIA, no, I think NVIDIA and Apple, they got into bigs. - As we like to point out, alphabet, you know, and meta too to a certain extent has always had a multiple that is pretty reasonable given its growth rate, even with the challenges ahead for it. And as you well know, the one real underperforming this year from the mega-cap tech was Microsoft. - Well, I mean, if you take a look at what Mark Benioff says pretty much every day about co-pilot and the failure it is, he's very vocal. - That is something that I think a lot of people are going to look at, how valuable is co-pilot? - Well, this is going to be a year we were talking about it two days ago. - Right, and J&P comes down to a school group. - Counts on invested capital in terms of AI may start to really matter to investors. - Well, we're going to start figuring it out. We'll figure out quantum computing. - Quantum could be years till we figure it out. - I know, I mentioned nuclear and 2034. I do want to point in J&P. - Yeah, grades Google saying final ruling government expected by August 2025 when I spoke with the general counsel of Google, the 2027 is the first time you'll get anything. And remember, it's very much like Microsoft, which I know you were around for, and at the end, it was over, the 10-field ruling was overruled, and not what happened. - No. - Browser separated, the browser had already been de facto Microsoft at that time. - Yeah, I think with alphabet, it's interesting, though. How often people go to CHACH-EPT for a search query that they would have otherwise-- - I don't use alphabet, I don't use, I just can't use Google. I use everything CHACH-EPT. - Gemini though, Gemini somewhat, complexity somewhat, meta AI for when it's kind of people magazine stuff. But I have the CHACH-EPT for, and I think that Mark Benioff started attacking that, but I'm going to say Mark back down, and McConnie back down, and Harrelson back down. - Your buddies. - They are, yeah, McConnie's my buddy's. I like the ads, they're good, yeah. All right, let's give you a look at futures as we get ready to begin trading here for the new year. - Send me back, thank you. - It's good to have you back. It's good for all of us to be back. Of course, I want Carl to be here too. That'll start next week. Lot more squawk on the street, though, straight ahead today. - Is it time to re-imagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capelli University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals, like business management, strategic planning, and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think, with Capelli University. Learn more at Capella.edu. - It's time to have your high five moment with high five casino, the Tap Social Casino, where the action and real prizes never stop. - Fun spins and big wins are right at your fingertips, with over a thousand games, including high five casino exclusives. High five casino is always free to play with free coins given out every four hours. Sign up today for a free welcome offer that can get you spinning and winning right away. Visit high five casino dot com. - High five casino. - No purchase necessary, but prohibited by law must be 21 years or older terms and conditions apply. - Global markets up to the minute, front page news. Wake up to Frank Holland at Worldwide Exchange. Weekdays five a.m. Eastern, CNBC. Live ambitiously. - At least 15 people were killed and dozens injured in the early hours of New Year's Day in New Orleans. This when a man in a pickup truck intentionally drove into a crowd, the FBI's identified the suspect as 42 year old, Shamsa Din Jabbar. He's a US citizen, served in the army for 10 years. The rented pickup truck contained an Islamic state flag, weapons and a potential explosive device. The opened fire on responding police officers. He wounded two. The suspect died in the gunfight. An FBI official say the agency believes he was not acting alone, but they had yet to disclose any evidence of co-conspirators. The sugar bowl, that's the college football playoff quarter final game between Georgia and Notre Dame. It was originally scheduled for last night. It's been postponed. It will be played this afternoon, obviously given the security concerns. They moved it there. Meanwhile, a Tesla Cybertruck exploded and burst into flames yesterday morning. This was outside the entrance of the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas. That killed one person who was inside the vehicle, who did injure several others that were standing nearby. That is being investigated as well as a possible terrorist attack. Police say the bed of the truck contained gasoline tanks, camp fuel canisters, and large fireworks mortars authorities said they believed the explosion was an isolated incident, although they have not yet ruled out a connection between the explosion in Las Vegas and the attack in New Orleans. Both trucks, by the way, rented through Tura. That's a peer-to-peer car rental service. People basically rent out their own automobiles when they're not using them. Obviously, Jim, not a great way to start the new. No, and don't want to get ahead of the news story here because there's a lot of investigation. We don't know much until one o'clock. I know, obviously, just a tragedy. And anyone who's been down there at that hour in New Orleans knows that's like Dayton. Yeah, yeah. OK, we're going to take a quick break here. Let's give you another look at futures, of course. We get started with trading about eight minutes from now, and we are looking for a higher open, a lot more squat than the three before you when we come back. Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think, with Capella University. Learn more at Capella.edu. It's time to have your high five moment with high five casino, the top social casino, where the action and real prizes never stop. Fun spins and big wins are right at your fingertips, with over 1,000 games, including high five casino exclusives. High five casino is always free to play, with free coins given out every four hours. Sign up today and get free welcome coins you can spin for a chance at cash prizes. Visit high five casino dot com. High five casino. No purchase necessary, but prohibited by law must be 21 years or older terms and conditions apply. All right, take a look at, as we get started here, about to get started. The potential S&P gainers, Simon Properties. Yeah, it's an upgrade band by the way, it's very tight. Retail's very tight, and David Simon is the best person. Yeah, the depth of the mall was greatly exaggerated. I think it's fair to say. At least the eight malls. At least the eight city, just because of container storage, big lots, that's not side of the park. No, but party city and container stores wasn't great. No bankruptcies. All right, we got Jim's first mad dash of 2020-25 coming, just a moment from now, and don't forget, by the way, you can catch us anytime and anywhere by listening to and following the Squawk in the Street opening bell podcast. Let's get to a mad dash with Jim, a minute and a half before we get started with trading. You know, you can talk pound tier all you want, but it's app-loving that gave people the most return. App-loving gave you a 712% return, and I think it's with a market valuation of $100 and $14 billion. I think this may be incredibly over advanced, and you can't short it. There's too many people betting against it, but this is mobile game ad placement, and I think anyone can come into this. I think there are actually no people who are coming into it, and it's one of those stories, David, where they have big margins. Some of you came in with anything smaller, any lower price, you could obliterate them. Now they would say, look, we are so entrenched. I say, give me a break. I mean, I know that you do have earnings. They do have earnings. They could earn 350, but I just think a stock that started the year as a fraction of where it ended, at $39 to 323. Is a stock that you ought to think twice about? Maybe you take a little one. Take a little one. But not short it to your point. No, no, because that game, we found that there's just, it's so fraught, me in a situation that others are short, and we learned that from Worrying Kitty in games. Worrying Kitty, yeah. Race is his head again. That guy lost all credibility with me after that game's the last one. (bell dings) All right, there it is. Opening bell for the first time in 2025. You're at the big board, American Red Cross, picking up Blood Donor Month, over at the NASA New Year at Helium. That was a recent listing via SPAC. By the way, SPACs, they have not died. No, they have not died. And there's a soccer board every minute. I mean, well, bird, it was a good SPAC. Listen, a lot of the rules around them and the various allocations to given parties have changed. They're more favorable now. But yeah, SPACs, I thought, after that period of 21, 22 would go away. Yeah, look, I think people are always trying to find something new and exciting. Helium, by the way, is dominated by Lindy. But Lindy is an old-fashioned industrial that my travel trust owns. They also do oxygen for, they do oxygen for at home, and they also do carbonation. And most importantly, carbon capture. And I think this could be a year of carbon capture, even as the president-elect may not believe that you need carbon capture. That's interesting, because there are a lot of questions about what parts of the Inflation Reduction Act, poorly named, of course, really was a climate change. But we'll be rolled back by the incoming Trump administration. There have been a lot of strategies, at least, that are partially dependent on carbon capture, including amongst our largest companies, such as one I covered very closely. That's my goal. I mention it because they become believers. They're not waiting for the-- They don't care, as president. Mike, you need to have a return at the end of the day, and therefore, you need to have a price on carbon, and you need to have some-- there has to be-- they incorporate certain allocations from the government as a result of what they're doing, that if they were to go away, changes to return on investing capital. In the meantime, we know that the president-elect wants to be able to use liquefied natural gas as a weapon against the Russians. We still have the Russians. Natural gas is not going through. Certainly, we have enough to be able to help Europe, but we were not able to get as many trains built as people would like. And last year-- The trains, we should point out, it's not a-- That's where the-- These are the export terminals for liquid nitrogen. When president Biden put through that pause in approvals, that stopped a lot of production. That's going to change day one. Yes, apparently they were about to rule it. There should be no more. There should be more environmental concerns. Right. If you believe that-- And then, pipelines, as you pointed out as well, when it comes to natural gas. By the way, interesting, you note that, because natural gas had a big move up at the end of the year. Way too high. In part on Ukraine saying no more there, but also because of cold weather coming to much of the country. Well, well, a target, which is a very good company, although they got their dividend. Target is a company that put through a pipeline that is full of its meaning. You have to get natural gas going. You can't flare natural gas. Yeah. Not anymore in this country, that's coming after you. But it's a big year, by the way. But still, when you go back a long way, you can see we've traded far, far higher, and obviously coming up all the time lows. Exactly. But I mean, that's a nice euphoria that is going to go. There it is. Yeah. Look, I still believe that there's this incredible pent-up demand for stock. Michael Assembles does this tremendous review over at JPMorgan. So a lot of pent-up demand for stock, and not a lot of offerings. At the same time, obviously, the 10-year goes to say four, six, seven. And people, that's an opposition. But I do think this is a pie shortage. I thought I'd come in today and hear that there'll be five new deals that were of size. David, nothing. Well, give it a little time. It's still kind of a holiday week. But I do think M&A, when you're all over the map today. So far, I don't feel like you've got your footing yet in terms of-- By the way, you're not alone. Well, how are you supposed to figure out-- I mean, nobody really can, of course, what really is going to happen in a year. But you want to buy some of the max seven, but not all. You kind of want value stocks, but then you're working well. Are there going to be more IPOs? Maybe not. Will there be more M&A? Well, I think it's going to happen with the Trump administration. Well, I mean, because of what's going to happen with interest rate. Well, President-elect Trump is a wild card. I mean, you've got people who say, look out. This is a smooth holly. This is the tariff of all time that puts us in a depression, like the '30s. And then you have the idea that corporate profits are going to stay strong. And so, therefore, you've got to stay in stocks. And you've got the idea that the Fed is still cutting. And if rates go down, then that's a major reason to be able to buy stocks, because of the completely multiple expanse. So, yes, David, I am not confused as much as there are more variables. There are an awful lot of variables, and things will become clearer over time. Particularly, as you point out on tariff policy, once the Trump administration gets going, not to mention again, also the questions about the level and depth of deportations and what that will mean for the labor force, and therefore, potentially for wage inflation. But how about health care? I mean, health care. Those stocks were terrible. Terrible, especially towards the end of the year. I know, and some of that is IRA. I mean, there really are coming down on the drug companies. And I was speaking to a prominent drug executive who just said, he tried very hard to speak divide. No such level. I've overheard industrial executives that I speak to tried very hard to speak divide. No such level. But the populism of the Trump administration does not necessarily mean that they're going to look more favorably on those companies as well, does it? No, it doesn't. And I don't think that RFK Jewier is so inclined to feel great about these companies. A lot of them believe that the way to treat disease is vaccine, and he's a skeptic. But again, he's a health and wellness guy, primarily. When I spoke to him, I know it was just a not a long range. It wasn't a particularly substantive interview that you did with a month or a couple of weeks back. No, it wasn't. But I do think that there's a lot of concern that health care could be bad again. Right, well, we say health care. There's a lot going on there. There are obviously the large pharmaceutical companies and device companies that you've got the health insurers, and you've got the PBMs, and you've got-- I mean, it's a lot of different things. Well, I mean, what are Walgreens? I think that Wentworth will do something this year to be able to make it so Walgreens is salvageable. The CBS wants to-- I think listen, when it comes to Walgreens, I think Sycamore is still going to give it their best shot to try to do something there. And I think we've talked about any number of the gating issues, but my understanding is they are still trying hard to get something done there in terms of potential deals. Well, I prefer the terrific article in the journal about how Amazon, Costco, Walmart continue to take share. Amazing. I mean, Amazon, you're focused or not, is who is the existential-- By the way, though, back to terrific reporting by the journal. What about the United Health Care story? I assume you read that, in terms of all the doctors on staff there that find diagnosed from Medicare advantage, diseases and things of which many of the doctors have barely ever heard of, let them load and diagnose for, but they get paid higher on it. Now, I would tell people to read the story, because I can't go into detail. They spend a year reporting it. It did not cover United Health Care and Glory to say the least. No, it was very damning. Now, I do think that there's a lot of people who get health care through work. I don't, because I'm a different kind of employee. And so we just had our open season. And David, you're looking at a family of four-- say 75, 80,000. And you may not be able to get the doctors from one. And you say to yourself, well, we're very lucky. I can afford it. But can the country-- No, it's-- The numbers are staggering when it comes to administering the family for, as you say. And there is a great deal of antipathy for many of these companies as a result. And not to mention, by the way. I mean, we see it as well. But we pay in, where I have the company's shirts. And yet, in many ways, it feels like it's catastrophic, right? Well, why-- because every time you go to a doctor-- You're not getting anything back. $500,000 cash. So I could get for her. This was 10 years ago, because she happened to be in an area that no one wanted to write for. And there were people willing to block subsidies to make it so there was no competition. I don't want to get too deep in the weeds on this. But there are two kinds of people that people have worked. And they have a cover by work. And there's everybody else. Everybody else, I know. No, it will continue to be a huge issue one would expect. And as you point out, those stocks suffered greatly towards the end of the year in particular. But we'll see what the incoming Trump administration means for-- Do we cover enough? No, it's impossible to cover enough, because it's such an important component of everybody's-- It's overwhelming. And then we'll budget. And do we cover entitlements enough? We talk about this department of government-- There's so many-- the only thing we cover enough is probably Nvidia and Apple. That's about it. We cover those enough. And you know what? We haven't covered them that much this morning. So I want to talk about Apple. Because I notice on your morning, your great morning sort of rundown. My top 10-- You know, there was a negative piece on Apple this morning. Yeah, they're going to miss. And then you come back and talk about-- it trades it 34 times. I don't like them more. Like the multiple times. I don't like the multiple of Apple. I like the company. This Chinese discount doesn't matter. What you really need is you got to see a big jump in service revenue. It was a UBS piece. Apple, iPhone's sell-through, declines 8% year over year in November, and they lowered their December revenue in EPSS. This stock broke out at a level that was not supposed to happen. It just wasn't supposed to go here. I think a lot of analysts-- this is why I said that maybe people are looking about $4 trillion, $5 trillion. Because Apple was not supposed to go to 35 times earnings. It's just not what it's supposed to go. It had, like so many others, had a big run at the end of the year. And again, we were back just watching that. Compressed. That's right. Well, the increase in multiple and the equal weighted S&P, which seemed to be putting up a fight there for a brief time, sort of gave in at the last few weeks of the year. Yes. And I think the analysts-- As the MAG 7 reasserted itself. Analysts are shocked. I think most of the analysts don't know what to say. They really do it. Well, perhaps you can't blame the $3.7 trillion, of course, down 2% today. One of the other big names-- we headed already with Phil above, but we're coming back. Tesla shares are off about 5 and 1/2 percent. Good opportunity there. You think so? Yeah, I do. Hey, by the way, delivery for the year were $1.789 million. That was versus $1.808 million in 2020. For you mentioned China's China's China's China's China's China. And they produce fewer vehicles than 2023. Well, look, I think that this is a-- I'm not saying that it's auto-powered to buy. I am saying that I believe in the technology. I really do. And I believe in technology driven by NVIDIA, which is a close partner with Elon Musk. All right, Elon Musk shited them for a moment. People are getting ready for Jensen. I think he's presenting at CES. He's just the six. That's coming up. Any thoughts there when it comes to? Again, one of the things we do cover very closely. I think he's going to talk-- I'm hoping he talks more about video. The difference between Blackwell and what we currently have, because I think there's just this idea that it's Pentium 2, Pentium 3. It's three and six, four and six. I think it's going to be much bigger than that. I think it's much-- in other words, the differential in terms of compute power, efficiency, so many other things. I don't-- Well, no latency, which would be good for self-driving. But I think robots are going to be a very big story here and now. Witness the fact that FedEx is currently using robots to unload trucks. We're used to take five people. It's one robot. And we don't talk about that, but the productivity savings are here. And you know we need them in order to have higher multiples, and we need them in terms of what's going to happen in our country, just in terms of, well, the fact that Trump Administration also follows through on a significant deportation policy. Right. We're going to need more robots. A lot more robots. A lot more robots. No, I don't know if they can build roofs. I'm not sure how good they are picking fruit. I think they'll be very good at having owned a couple of restaurants and very good restaurants. They're very good at both behind the bar. And by the way-- A robot behind the bar, really. Oh my god, the cash situation at the bar, it's better to have a robot. Unless you have a robot that takes some of the cash, I don't think a robot could be programmed to take cash. You don't think so? Have a robot go out and have-- At the end of the day, it's taking $500 to the robot point. Does the robot put $100 in its pockets? At some point it might. At some point the robot's going to-- You got it, you're a robot. The robot's going to want to go out in the town. That would be ridiculous. Robots are going to go to the robot point. The robot's not going to give you two free drinks. That's what they do. I never when my daughter went to my bar, she's dead. This is the greatest bar in the world. That gave me three free drinks. I went to buy-- Did you get this-- well, she's very nice. That's my daughter. I think robots are going to want love, too. They're going to try and find love in all sorts of ways. David, if that happens, then there's not going to be-- They're going to need the cash. We're going to have to cut Medicare. They're going to need some cash. When I see a robot behind the bar, I'll take a photo. I guess a robot to make me a shaken, not stirred vodka martini using Smirnoff. And it didn't even respond to me. It's just something. Where was this? Oh, at the beginning of the conference. Yeah. I mean, it looked at me like, you know, who do you think you are? Meanwhile, I was James Bond. And it's the first time I was ever not confused with James Bond. It's true. It happens a lot. I know everywhere you go. Like, who the hell are you going with? Yeah, it's Sean Conley or-- Slazinger 4. Well, David, all I can tell you is that Axon is the stock that people don't talk about. Well, Axon was a great performer last year as well. And that's because it's a software as a service company that is quietly taking over many jurisdictions, including in Brazil. And there's a company that's 112 times earnings that no one talks about Rick Smith. They used to have one all the time. They think it's Taser. This is one of the most popular stocks in the world, had another unbelievable year, and nobody talks about it. So I thought it was important to talk about number five on the list of the best-- Yes, it was number five of the best performance we had last year. Because we talked about Nvidia, which is four. But we didn't mention MicroStrategy. We didn't really talk that much about Nvidia. I want to get more from you. Because, I mean, it's Nvidia for God's sakes. Come on, man. It's the first trading day of the year. I think I've got-- You've hit it for, like, a minute. Our members of the club are getting-- I want them to digest some of the comments that have Nvidia. Oh, so we're doing the old paywall thing here. I just think it's appropriate, given the fact that there's a lot of people paying for it. And there was an ad for it during the Penn State game. An ad for your club? Yes, I have a picture of me underneath it, and it's just so self-referential even on a campaign show. Wow, I mean, we've hit some tough times here when you can't talk about Nvidia, because they've got to get it to the club members first. Woo. I think that they deserve-- I mean, I've learned this a lot of the time you see in the future. People who pay get the edge. But David Comcast was upgraded by a firm. Speaking of our parent company, at least perhaps the next year. It was very encouraging. It talked about what would be encouraging. It talked about low, multiple, robust-- Yes, yes. And then he used to work on the receipt. Good free cash flow. Unloved. Unloved. Time-loved. Well, yeah, two double digit percentage declines in the stock back-to-back, while the S&P's up 20-something percent. We'll do that. We'll love it all the wrong chord. It could. Like those robots. Yeah, someone asked me, said, do you use YouTube TV? Because it's so much better than Comcast. I said, I work for Comcast. And they said, yeah, two CDs, two. Going up to 83 bucks a month very soon. Well, premiere? I have it, but I paused it. I paused it. Because I also have cable. I don't know what I'm doing. It's driving me crazy. I got both. I got the cable. I got the YouTube TV. I don't know what I'm doing. That's wrong. Is it-- We'll have to talk offline about that. All right, I'm looking at some of the names that are up this morning. What do you got? I don't know. I got Exxon and Chevron, both putting up a full-- Yeah, well, Chevron was up great in the morning. That's just, you know, goes-- I got the banks kind of looking somewhat healthy. We didn't talk about how the banks came one very strongly this year. They never are the leaders. But JPMorgan, doing incredibly great year last year. Not to mention, as I like to point out, many of the alternative asset managers, as well as, you know, which I follow closely. KKR was one of the best performers this year. Amazing. $131, $132 billion market value job. KKR now. Amazing job. No, the banks, the regional banks, did incredibly well. It's just an odd amount. Well, there's an expectation there could be a lot of-- there could be a lot of consolidation amongst the regional banks this year. Right. And at well, now, with me in a con out-- Yeah. --with John Vincanner out-- Yep. --me in an FTC, Jonathan at the Justice Department, this is all from side to me. I have a lot of friends, not as many as you, but this is going to be the big book. Yeah. This is what's going to happen. I think there is a-- as we hit the beginning of this year, there is an expectation we're going to see a lot of mergers and acquisition activity. The Revanch area with the mean economy show. And certainly, because of pent up now-- and my understanding is dialogues have begun. We'll see whether they end up in deals. Well, let's go over there. There's still plenty of issues that you can do. When touring the Oregon game, I'm one with the dial on. Yeah, while I work in my game. People are busy. People do. People talk during the game. By the way, you could talk during that game. The other game, the ASU Texas game, you couldn't talk. No. Anybody. No, there was no talking. No. That was just white. No. Whoa. Wow. Yeah, there was a lot of talking, apparently, from the giant's game that they beat the Colts. Yeah, that was very important. That was genius. Genius. They can't even lose, right? No. No, they can't. All right, we got manufacturing PMI from S&P Global out. Rick Santel has got the numbers for us, Rick. Yes, S&P Global. These are December final reads on the manufacturing side. Our mid-month read was 48.3. It improved up to 49.4, but it's still the sixth consecutive month in contraction, so last six months under 50. The first six months of 2024 were above 50. 49.4 fits right in with November, which was 49.7, both just a bit, but still under 50. Big story today is how the Dollar Index came in 2025. Roaring, if it would have closed at some of the higher levels today, be the highest close going back to November of '22. We still have construction spending and the ISM PMIs at the top of the hour. Squawk on the street will return after a short break. Take a look at Bitcoin. Obviously, it ended the year quite strong, although the last few sessions backed off from that $100,000 mark. But you can see up nicely. And as you might expect, of course, micro-strategy following right behind. Those shares up about 5.4% after a huge gain of over 300. There's a 40-act problem. That's a 40-act. Walking 40-act problem, which is that it's a security, but obviously, it's a commodity, so they get away with it. There you go. Right. It's basically all Bitcoin, but it gets a multiple of what it owns. Up next, Jim's going to have his stop trading. Don't go anywhere. OK, let's get to stop trading. Yeah, we were talking about M&A, and we talked about the banks. And I think that Mike Mayo has some great peace out today. JP Morgan should be consensus. City dominant number one pick. But I like this because this group is not expensive. We've talked about 13, 14 times earnings. Could really benefit from regulatory approval. When you get a change that the FTC and Justice Department, you're going to have more deals. And there could be deals amongst themselves. So this is a group that I really-- you said earlier, Jim, you're kind of all over the map. I'm not all over the map when it comes to banks. I think they're terrific. You do. Yeah. M&A, JP Morgan stock price had a very good year last year. Still well performed in the broader S&P. Still very inexpensive. And I think that it's really interesting, because I referenced the simplest piece of JP Morgan. When I was working here on Wall Street, you went to Goldman. Now, you go to Goldman, you go to JP Morgan. A lot of people feel like it's $6.00 or you go to private credit, you go to private equity. But I think there's so many more firms. There are really only three or four firms that you interviewed with when I was coming out. Yeah, that's not the case any longer. That's all there was. Now, our first mad of the year, what do you got tonight? I'm going to figure out which ones of these app lubbins and Walgreens should be bought and sold, going over the best and the worst. I really like the fact that there was an ad for the club during the E.O.H.I.S. As you should. As you should, the club's been a great success. Yeah, but it's not the cloister network part. It's broad. And it was a big deal for me. I'm glad. Yeah, all right, good luck. Thank you. Whoever did that for me in the Comcast-- I had nothing to do with it. No, I think all the facts. I think you have very, very little to it, frankly. I think you may have been against it. Yeah, I was. I'm against everything you would do. Thank you very much. You're welcome. Anything you can do? I can do better. No, you can't. Yes, I can, no, I can't. So far, stock's off to a positive start. Keep it here. You've been listening to the opening bell on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." All opinions expressed by the "Squawk on the Street" participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC, Universal, or their parent company, or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information, "Squawk on the Street" participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and/or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full "Squawk on the Street" disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/squawkonthestreetdisclaimer. At Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think. With Capella University, learn more at Capella.edu. (upbeat music)
Jim Cramer and David Faber kicked off the first day of trading in 2025 with a look at what's ahead for stocks, following the best two-year stretch for equities since the late 1990s. Hear what Jim had to say about investing in the "Magnificent 7" stocks, including Tesla. Shares of the EV maker fell sharply in reaction to its first decline in annual deliveries. Also in focus: The deadly New Year's Day truck attack in New Orleans and the Tesla Cybertruck explosion outside a Trump hotel in Las Vegas.
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