This NFL Week 18 Player Props Edition and Player Contract Incentive episode of the Propcast on the sports gambling podcast network is brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. Sounded were promo code "Machine" to get a 50% deposit bonus of up to $1,000. Rosar brought to you by Rhythm. The leader and data-driven picks and props get your 7-day free trial today by going to sportsgamblingpodcast.com/RITHMN. Welcome everyone to the Propcast Part of the Sports Gambling Podcast Network. The NFL Week 18, the finish line for the NFL regular season before we do get in to the post-season for the National Football League. Still, of course, a lot to be determined here in the final week, the number one seed in the NFC up for grabs, playoff seeding of course in both the conferences as well. So a lot, at least from a team perspective, but of course, everybody loves NFL Week 17 and Week 18 when we're talking about Player Props because every talking head now is talking about all the player incentive and contract bonuses that needs to be unlocked. Of course, we'll cover that here. On this episode, get our thoughts on that and how we are going to attack it. We'll go through the list of the players that do have those bonuses that they need to unlock and what they need for this week to earn those bonuses. We'll talk about all that. Of course, give you our Player Props, touchdown scores and then we'll talk about honorable mentions and then we'll wrap it up with best bets here. And of course, joining me on the final episode of the regular season at least for the 2024 year. I got my guy here with me. It's Krispy Kappen. Kris, what's going on? I'm a man. You know, we've made it to the last week of the season and it feels like earlier. Maybe on Monday this week, we would do a divisional preview. It's low by man, tons of fun, tons of when it's given out. We've also given out some losers, but overall, I think we both pretty profitable and it's been cool, man. I really, really enjoyed it. We're not done. Like you said, but this is the last season, last week at a regular season in the NFL for this season. So super excited to be here as always. The incentive shows are always pretty cool. You know, I have to see which ones we can nail and see which players really going after it. So yeah, I'm excited to jump into it with you today. Yeah, I mean, a couple of years ago, I would say that this wasn't such a hot topic with player contract incentives and those bonuses that they do get. But now, you know, it's just all over gambling, Twitter and sometimes I think now we got to be a little bit cautious about how we do attack some of these contract bonus because I know you think all of us noticed that the books are a little, I don't want to say it has a tens of right word, but a little bit slower this week of posting those player props this week. But also the fact that we just are, we don't know and all you see the books don't know about, you know, who's going to be playing, which stars are going to be playing in these games. They're kind of just waiting for, you know, the coaches that come out and say, Hey, you know, ABC is going to be playing first half, you know, and then we'll rest our stars in the second half. A lot of scoreboard watching this season. So, you know, as exciting as it is to talk about these player props for week 18 and the player prop incentives as well, that we also has to be smart about it and which ones we do attack because I mean, there are games here where, you know, the, it's a little bit baked in. And we'll talk about that as we kind of progress here, when we talk about these player bonuses for this final week of the regular season, but before we do get into it, just want to remind everybody to download the SGP and app, like all of our picks on our and pods on the sports gambling podcast network, it's absolutely free to download wherever you do get your apps where there's a Google Play store where there's the app store, just do us a favor, download the SGP and app. Again, I can mention it's completely free. All right, Chris, so let's get into the player prop bonuses here before we do give our player props out. I'll mention the hot ones or the ones that are, I guess, attainable or maybe the ones that have the most money involved for these players. And one part we've talked about a lot has been Mike Evans, and I think that's the biggest one coming into this week. He, number one, is looking to continue his streak of 1000 receiving yards for every single season that he's played in the National Football League as a professional player. He's, I believe, 85 yards away from that. 82 or 85, I think it's a number, I'll double, 85, 85 is the number, and then five receptions also, which would unlock him $3 million for this season, of course, keep that number alive or a streak live, I should say, for his career. So, I mean, this number was, it opened up, I want to say around 93 and a half, Chris, it's all the way up to 100 and a half here. I was heavy on Mike Evans last week, just because, number one, we knew that last week he needed 180 some odd yards, it was just a match up last week for him as well against the Panthers, right? I mean, he had 90 plus receiving yards, he got two touchdowns in the game, got the receptions there as well. So, I was heavier on him last week. To get your thoughts here on Mike Evans, if it's still playable at this number for you at 100 and a half as it's moving to at consensus, or is there a different way that you're attacking Mike Evans, player props here, but what's your thoughts here on Mike Evans for this week against a new Orleans. So, again, let's remember, Tampa needs to win this game as well to clinch the NFC South Division and punch their ticket to the postseason. So, we got a new Orleans Saints team coming into town, Tampa Bay was at home last week as well, right? I mean, I think Carolina came to Tampa Bay, so no trouble. Only needing 85, he's going to be cool, you know, if you finish the 86 and not at 100, you got to keep that in mind. So, I think the first thing I want to, you know, as I'm kind of processing it all in my brain, I'm thinking, first and foremost, how smart you were to get it last week when you had a really good matchup. Now, it's not like the Saints are some world beat in 1985 Bears defense out here, and they are 14 point favorites in this game, which I think that, you know, we talk a lot about Dave Canales kind of resurrecting the career of Baker Mayfield, you know, I think another very, very key contributor has been the reliability of somebody like Mike Evans. I mean, it makes your job a lot easier. We could just float the ball out there too, and throw the jump balls to him when some of those go routes, knowing that he's going to get open, knowing that he's consistent, knowing what his work ethic is like, and I mean, they do have a really, really good chemistry. Now, could that lead to some double teams from the Saints because they're, you know, trying to go in here and slow him down? Absolutely. I am thinking that as well. I don't know if I get to the number, you know, with it moving up to 100. Now, can he go out there and get 100? Yes, but is there a lot of wiggle room in between and, you know, by the time I are listeners who are going to listen back to this on recorded podcast form, by the time they get to the number, it might even be even worse. So I'm not on Mike Evans this week, but for $3 million in 85 yards in five receptions, it's really, really hard for me to pass up what I'm here to, you know, so I mean, I'm not going to give too much of an endorsement to play it or not to play it. I think I'm more neutral, but I love what you did last week by attacking him against that Carolina defense understanding that he was going to need to get a lot done in two weeks. So while waiting till the last week and I like what you did with him last week. Yeah. So last week, I, and our sponsor over at underdog fantasy, they do a great job of offering first half projections as well. And I took the first half projection last week for Mike Evans as well. And that one got, got to the window there as well. Right now they had them listed at 51 and a half in the first half. If you want to look at that for his receiving yards, but you know, the head to head history against the Saints and 20 career games here has been good. I know a lot of that has been with, you know, the battle between him and Marshall and Latimore. Obviously, he was not there anymore with your commanders now there, but Chris is just, he's played 20 career games against a New Orleans Saints, I'm going to let you guess on how many games he's had in those 20 games of at least 90 yards or more against a New Orleans Saints. So 20 career games for Mike Evans against the Saints, how many of those 20 games has he had 90 or more receiving yards against the Saints? I'm a guest is not that many, maybe it's a 20, let's say, let's say four or five. He's had two and this was back in one. Yeah, two. So one career game or one game I should say back in the 2018 season, he had 147 yards. That's the only game in his career against the Saints where he's had a hundred plus, then he had a game where he had, I think it was 97. This was back in 2016. But over the last one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight games he hasn't had 71 or more receiving yards. And again, like I mentioned, a lot of that had to head, you know, when the, you know, the Saints were more competitive, they hard match on Latimore, we know the miles between those two teams. So first thing for me, Chris, I'm going to stay away as well. I got mine last week. I'm hoping Mike Evans gets it because I love Mike Evans. Great competitor, great receiver, but I think that because his number of time now moving up to a hundred and a half, there's a possibility of a nice middle there for you. If you want to do that, or if you're a same game parlay player or those all players who want to do like 80 plus for Mike Evans and you parlay with somebody else, you can do that as well. All right. Let's keep it moving here. We're kind of rapid fire through that. I think that was a big one that we need to talk about. The one I will be playing Chris here is going to be Cortland Sutton for the Denver Broncos. He needs 82 receiving yards for $2 million for this upcoming season and his contract incentive bonus there. Right now for Cortland Sutton, I want to say this number opened up around, and it was available around 64 and a half, 66 and a half. Right now you could get a 65 and a half. And if you could double check this one for me, Chris, on bed MGM, 65 and a half, I see is a number, but I'm seeing 71 and a half at bed 365 and 73 and a half at DraftKings right now. Cortland Sutton and the Denver Broncos, they take on the Kansas Chiefs this week. Kansas already came out and said they're going to be sitting most of their starters. They really don't have a lot to play for in this game. So I would expect Cortland Sutton, the Denver Broncos need this game as well if they want to keep their playoff chances alive. So I don't think they'll be forcing the football too much to Cortland Sutton if they can get the dub and also get Cortland Sutton to those 82 plus receiving yards. Okay, that would be absolutely fantastic for them. But I think of the number of around 71 and a half right now, I would definitely play that for Cortland Sutton. He's had some good success against the Kansas Chiefs in his career. He's had a game of 87 receiving yards. He's hovered around 78, 79. But I think that maybe one final catch where they, if they are winning this game and that he needs to get the yards, I think that he can get it done here, but 73, 71 and a half is the number right now. We'll run bet 365. I do like that for Cortland Sutton this week for $2 million to get the 82. So there's a nice opportunity that if he does get 75, 79, 80 yards, maybe just falls for that 82 number, we still catch on this prop here, Chris. Yeah, there's one, I think every thing kind of lines him, you know, if you, you got a team that, this is the way I see it, that you got a team that needs to win, right? You got a, a team that is not going to be playing super hard on the opposite side of the football with the, with the, like the Kansas City Chiefs, like you mentioned, they've wrapped up everything that they need to do. So you got a team trying to make the playoffs. You also got a defense, you know, if that does what, well, they stop the run, right? If the chiefs have any kind of deficiency, you know, it's the ability to be able to slow down the pass, I think at Tom. So could definitely see him getting the ball a little bit more. The other thing that really jumps off the page and me and this one, you know, we're all of a sudden is he needs over the number, right? Like he needs 82. So getting, getting to the prop is not even going to be a, you know, incentive of 500,000 for him. So he needs to get to the prop and over the prop. So 71 and a half, you, you mentioned, you know, if that, you, you asked me to double check the number that is the number I see 70 and a half available on hard rock, which is super limited to most people, but 71 and a half is the lowest number at minus 115 on but three, six, five, this is already up to 76 and a half over on Caesars. So definitely something you want to probably get in early, but keep in mind that, you know, he needs 82. So I do like this one, you know, feels like all the stars kind of aligned on courtless sudden this week. I like that one a lot. All right. And then I'll say the same game, DeAndre Hopkins. I don't think he'll get this. He needs nine receptions, 140 yards for 250,000 each, but he also needs one more touchdown as well. I think believe to get 250,000. So keep an eye out for DeAndre Hopkins. He does start the game. That's possibly the thing you want to get in the football. Carson wins will begin the start here for the Kansas City Chiefs. Let me wrap it by a couple of more here, get your thoughts on them. Tony Pollard is another one. They play the Texans this week. He needs 83 or more rushing yards to get 250,000. He also needs two plus rushing touchdowns for another 200,000 Chris. And then the other one that did catch my eye was going to be, I want to get your thoughts on this one was Tyler Murray. He needs 50 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown as well for 750,000. Those are the ones that stuck out to me. Of course, there are some more we can talk about here as well, but get your thoughts on Tony Pollard this week. I know he's dealing with an ankle injury. They go up against my Texans whose rush defense has been atrocious to say the least. And then also, Tyler Murray, if you can get 50 plus rushing yards and a rushing touchdown here, Chris. Yeah, the Pollard one, you know, if I kind of want to, you know, just kind of see what's going on with his health, but in my estimation, 250,000, you know, if the guard didn't get 83 yards, I'll make your leg feel better afterwards, but maybe you can do a little bit of pain in this way. And you say, you know what, we got all somebody to get this leg done, you know, and get it healed. You know, Tennessee Titans will not be playing another football game this year, so I can see him kind of, you know, trying to get there against your Houston Texans. I think it's also pretty telling that the Tennessee Titans are even favored in that game. So Tony Pollard should do a lot of the work there. I like the 83 yards. Like you said, your Texas defense has not been that great against the rush. And then you also mentioned, you know, 700 50,000 at the crib this week against the San Francisco 49ers defense, not that they can't do a great job of containing quarterbacks. But Calamary, we know if that offensive line is blocking, you know, if the plays can kind of open up, I think we see him take off of him, you know, I think we see him take off a couple of times here and, you know, not only to go out there and try to get the incentive, but also to win the game for his team this week with the Arizona Cardinals being a four and a half point favorite. So I actually like both of those. I like the Tony Pollard one, need an 83 for 250 K and I do like, I like the Calamary, what the Russian touchdown, 50 plus yards for 75. I mean, that's almost a whole nother million dollars, you know, but I think I think both of those guys will get up for this one even with the Tony Pollard injury to his leg. Calamary quickly here against the San Francisco 49ers has played seven career games. He's had 50 or more rushing yards in one, two, three, four, and then he had one game last season where he had 49 in that game. So it could have been five out of seven if he would have got one more yard last season, but I think that this is definitely the possibility here for Calamary, especially with a running back room, Chris, that is injured, right? James Connor, I think it's done for the season. They elevated Michael Carter Jr. He had a pretty good week last week, but I think that color Murray, I think definitely for 50 plus rushing yards here in a touchdown is in the realm of possibility against the San Francisco 49ers. All right, Chris, before we continue the conversation here, I mentioned a dog fancy. Take time to get down and get an account with a rock fantasy because we're talking about these player incentives and they have the fantasy projections up, but they have honestly one of the biggest menus of all sports and it's just a lot of fun playing on underdog fantasy. Last week I had a lot of success. We talked about the Mike Evans. That was a part of my entry there as well for underdog fantasy, but they're always making it easier to win with profit boost and give me pickums. Today I was on a rock fantasy, they have a no sweat NBA entry that you can put together from two to four picks there. So they also have the underdog playoff the best ball, which is now live. The gauntlet tournament has two million in prizes up for grabs for just a $25 entry. NFL, college football, college basketball, MMA, NBA, NASCAR, so much more. You can now use special and boost on all flex entries. Stay tuned at the end of the episode. We'll put together our underdog fantasy entry for the final week of the regular season. So sign up for promo code machine to claim for a special pick and first time deposit offer up to 1000 and bonus cash as they're not fancy.com. Make sure they're promo code machine. Chris, a couple more we can touch on here. I think Derek Henry needs one more touchdown to unlock 250,000. He is minus two 50, I think is a number from the score touchdown this week. They are close to a three touchdown favorite. Would you bet Jeff? You know, we're getting into the box and odds of things, you know, but we met Derek Henry and went touchdown for 500k with those odds when we do it, you know, I think so. I think he gets it done in the first half. I think it's a good piece that if you want to put together in a parlay, I think it's definitely a possibility. I don't think it's possible. I think he gets it done. That's another touchdown. And then one more I'll mention here, Chris, JK Dobbins, he needs 58 rushing yards to get 150,000. I think his number was around 71 and a half, but they are going to pick it to Raiders this week. They're without Max Cross to be, I think this is a good opportunity for JK Dobbins to, I don't come back from the injury, but an opportunity for him to get the bonus here, but also just get the rust off and get them ready for the, for the postseason there as well for the chargers and the chargers did come out and say that they are going to be playing their starters in this game here, you know, ramping up for the postseason. So that was another one, JK Dobbins, Derek Henry, and then, yeah, I'll get your thoughts on those. That's what I have. And if you have any others that you have, you have your eye on Chris and then we can get into our player props. No, no, no, I think you did a really good job. I mean, if I don't think I had anything, I think you took everything I had in my notes. I think they were to me, was that's what I had in my notes as well. You mentioned JK Dobbins 58 for 150. I think that's obtainable for for him in the Los Angeles charges against the Raiders against that Vegas Raiders defense, them coming in as four point favorites at your last stadium this week. And then you also mentioned did you mean who else did you mention, you know, it was JK Dobbins and the other one was who did I just say, did you say mixing? I didn't say mixing. I'm trying to figure out if the Texas are going to have their starters out there like the entirety of the game, but yeah, I'll let you take away from Joe mixing. I'll just kind of win over my head right now about what the other guy wants, but I'll mention one more once you're done with that, if you haven't thoughts on Joe mixing. No, no, not really. I mean, 107 is a lot. Could you go out there and get, you know, absolutely get the job done Tennessee is in my opinion, a little bit better against the run than they are against the pass. Well, I'm sorry, better against the run than they are to pass. So I'm interested to see what happens with your Texas as well. I haven't really read up too much on that one to to feel like I want to be able to make a choice in that one. But like I said, 107 yards is it's obtainable, but it's not going to be super easy. Of course on the road. So I don't really have any, I guess burning thoughts on Tony pilot about that one back to you. Last one I'll mention it's a big number two million each for Gino Smith. He needs 185 passing yards and then a Seattle win that'll get him $2 million each. So if you want to, you know, same game parlay that one. And then I did see also that our guy, we talked about a lot of Jackson Jackson Smith and Jigba, he needs five receptions to set the franchise record for receptions in a single season there. I didn't see that number was at five and a half. So if you want to put together same game parlay of Seattle Moneyline, Gino 200 plus passing yards and then over on JSN's receptions, I think that's, that'll get you some plus odds. Maybe not be, I don't think it'll quite reach two to one, but I do think there's an opportunity that that does happen this week here for the Seattle Seahawks. Well, again, the information's all out there guys. Those were the ones that I did want to mention and what me and Chris would probably look at playing this week, but again, be very smart, be very cautious because I've had a lot of conversations with other people that, you know, that market now may have just been saturated now. And I think the books are also catching on to, you know, all these lists that are out there. And especially when a, a, a sports book is putting up their own graphic of the player incentives that that's a huge red flag for me when it does come to these contract incentives here. All right, Chris, let's get into our player props here for official player props for Winifil week 18, the final week of the regular season. Why don't you do this off where you take us for your first player prop? We are going to, we're actually going to go into one of the games tomorrow, you know, we're going Cincinnati Pittsburgh tomorrow, eight o'clock Eastern Standard Tom on ESPN and we're taking which quarterback do we want, you know, we want Joe, give us Joe. Joe mixing Joe mixing Joe barrel up and over his past completions here, the number comes in at 25 and a half. It is a bit juice, I see like minus one 25, but I'm thinking this is a game where he probably completes about 26 20, I'm sorry, 27 28 passes, you know, it opened 25 and a half has quickly been better up to 26 and a, well, we got better from 26 and a half back down to 25 and a half, but I'm looking at Joe. Of course, the Pittsburgh Steelers, I'm sorry, not the Pittsburgh Steelers, the, the Cincinnati bingles need this game. They need to also a lot of other things to happen as well, but their playoff hopes aren't quite done yet. So, so that was one of the things that was a driving factor knowing that Joe barrels can go out there and play, you know, one of his best games and one of the best foot put his best foot forward to win a game. Looking at Joe recent numbers, you know, we know that this is the team that passes the ball. Absolute ton, he's, he had 39 past completions last week against Denver. He did have a game in there against Cleveland when he threw the ball just 23 times, but that was because they didn't need him to throw the ball. The game was absolutely ran away with it. And then seven straight weeks before that, you know, this dude has had 26 completions or more. So you love to see that Tennessee, Dallas, Pittsburgh, the Chargers, the Baltimore Ravens, the Vegas, the Vegas Raiders, the Philadelphia, it's about to say 76, it's Philadelphia Eagles up and over this number and every single one of them, you know, this is a team that passes the ball. Last 10 games, 66% of the time, his completion percentage is just, just north. I'm sorry, just south of 70% pass a rating of 109 last 10 games. Like he's doing a really good job getting the ball out. Completion percentage is really, really good. And I'm looking at that Pittsburgh, still his defense, they can be susceptible to giving up the passes. I think that they'll try to do a really good job of limiting the big plays to Jamar Chase and letting him take the top off the defense. So we see a lot of, you know, underneath stuff, not that he won't air it out and get the ball deep down the field a couple of times at least, but I think that they try to do a good job of kind of, you know, keeping the passes short and concise, which will only lead to him having even more completions. You know, so we will start to think off with smoking Joe, Joe Barrow up in over 25 and a half completions. Yeah. I mean, I really honestly can't talk you off at taking overs for Joe Burrow. I think also the fact that their number one running back, Chase Brown suffered an ankle injury last week. So his status is a little bit up in the air. I think that he's going to try to suit it up, but number one short week when you're doing with ankle injuries, it's tough. So I don't expect a lot from Chase Brown in this game, at least running the football, which just kind of tells me that, you know, Joe Burrow is going to be on the shoulders of Joe Burrow. And again, look, the offensive success over the past several games where they have this little winning streak of four games in a row, it's been Joe Burrow throwing the football, getting the completions, getting the attempts and getting the passing yards as well, right? So I like, I like the completions number. I think he has another game where he throws for 300 plus yards in this game. He's at three straight against Seattle against Pittsburgh Steelers, where he's had 300 more passing yards in those games, 338, 355 in the earlier this month, or should I say, last year, December 1st, 2024, 309 passing yards in that game for Joe Burrow, eight straight games as well. He's had three or more passing touchdowns for Joe Burrow. So I think it'll be a lot of Joe Burrow, I think he leaves it out on the field, trying to get his team the victory in this game. All right, for my quarterback prop here, I'm going to go with Baker Mayfield on his passing yards here, Chris. You know, we talked about how great Joe Burrow has been. I think that Baker Mayfield has just been an absolutely fantastic job this season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So I'm looking at his passing yards to go over the number. This number opened up around 246 and a half, played it at 250 and a half, but I like this all the way up to 275 and a half. The current number right now that we'll grade it at is going to be at 255 and a half for Joe Burrow, sorry for Baker Mayfield. So last week, we saw what they were able to against the Carolina Panthers, but I mean, you just look at the numbers for Baker Mayfield last four games in particular, 288 or more passing yards, 295 against the Raiders, 288 against the Chargers, 303 against the Dallas Cowboys. And he had 359 last week against the Carolina Panthers. He's had a success against the Saints in his career as well, looking at those numbers for Baker Mayfield against the New Orleans Saints. Let's see here. So earlier this season, he had a game where he threw for 325. Last year, he had a game where he threw for 309. And I think, again, there's just be on the shoulders of Baker Mayfield to really guide this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team who again, win and you're in. You plenched the NFC South Division. So I like Baker, whether it's not going to be a factor in this game, obviously playing in New Orleans. So I like Baker to get it done and guide this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team to a NFC South Division title here, Chris. So we'll get at 256 and a half over for Baker Mayfield this week. Excellent, excellent fine, double digit, well, two touchdown home favorite home. Joe, Joe, this, this, you got me calling him Joe now, you know, Baker this season up and over the number 10 of his 16 games so far, four straight games for the last five. You look at him at home, it gets even better. He's played eight home games so far this season up in six of up and over six out of eight games so far with five for the last six going up and over, you know, I mean, this is an excellent match up with him and you look at this New Orleans Saints defense, 27th and passing yards allowed for a game. So a big game for Baker, you know, probably leads to a big game for now, I guess I'm talking myself in to a little bit more of a little bit more of Mike Evans, but yeah, it should be big games for both of them here against the Saints defense that doesn't have, like you said at the beginning, no ladder more. He will be in D.C. where we're grateful for one. Yeah, I misspoke, I thought this game was in New Orleans, but in fact, like Chris mentioned, they are playing in Tampa this week are the Buccaneers. So I like it even more now just because of what Chris mentioned that he's been really good in Tampa. So again, the game is in Tampa, I spoke there, they're not being in New Orleans. All right, Chris, before we get over to our next round of player props here, let me just tell everybody about my bookie.ag, you believe it or not, my bookie.ag's been around SGPN for years, but they have props for every game. They have a live dealer casino there as well. They even have an option for new early, or new early cash out options that are available on my bookie.ag. So I got to do head over to my bookie.ag, make sure you send a promo code SGPN for a 100% deposit match up to $1,000 plus also throw in a $10 casino chip for you as well. That's my bookie.ag from a code SGPN, and we're also brought to you by rhythm. SGPN's prop partner rhythm is the number one AI powerback sports betting platform that also provide better of all levels, the ability to build custom predictive betting models. In seconds, and get predictions for money betting on my line spreads, totals, props, all of it. You can build your own model, or you can copy one of the top performing models from the leaderboard or rhythm can build a model for you. Now you can track props in the rhythm app, NFL picks, NFL props, college, football, college, basketball, NBA, honestly rhythm, they have it all. This week, the rhythm model does like, let's see here, they like Lamar Jackson over one and a half passing touchdowns against the Cleveland Browns this week. So claim your seven day free trial today by going to sportsgamblingpodcast.com/rhythmsportsgamblingpodcast.com Alright, Chris, let's keep it rolling here, next player problem, man, what do you got? Next player prop, you know, we're going to another very good game, a decisive game that's going to determine a lot. We're going to the Minnesota Detroit game, a Sunday night game, 820 Eastern Standard Time on Peacock, NBC, looking at Jamere Gibbs here, you know, if I like Jamere Gibbs longest rush attempt up and over 16 and a half, and it's just because he's been so consistent with this team, we always talk about Sonic and Knuckles, shout out to Sonic and Knuckles and Shadow and everybody else, that's a part of the crew. But Jamere Gibbs, you know, this number 16 and a half minus 115 is what I see, some minus 120s out there as well, he gets a pretty difficult defense because it's not like the Minnesota Vikings are just going to roll over and lay down for him, but this dude has just been killing it. Eight of his last 10 games, he's up and over the number, he had a 30-yard rush last week on the road against San Francisco. So traveling back across country in this spot typically does not bowl well for most teams, but I think we're going to see a balanced attack, like we always see from the Detroit Lions, and I think that he goes up and over the number. It's no real, you know, you know, great handicap, this is just something that he's been doing all season, he's a very explosive dynamic running back that I think we'll see have plenty of opportunities. He, of course, is rushing the ball a lot, getting 15 attempts per game for 81 yards, averaging six yards a pop, 37.1 yards after contact, and he's breaking a couple tackles as well. So we'll go Jamere Gibbs up and over his longest rush of 16 and a half, something he's done, and not just in the last 10, but not in the last 11 games, the Detroit Lions team is played in a very, very meaningful game where both teams fighting with playoff season here. Yeah, I mean, look, Jamere Gibbs has been, we've talked about him a lot this season. He's been absolutely fantastic for this Detroit Lions team, and, you know, he was my MVP on my fantasy team this year. So, you know, they're going to need him in this game, obviously, for all the marbles. Um, don't remember a game of this magnitude, I don't know how many years have ever, I mean, the number one seed in the NFC on the line, the loser drops to the PIP seed. Uh, but yeah, I mean, you talk about anytime you tell about Jamere Gibbs, I will definitely co-sign that, uh, with you for sure. All right. Um, my running back prop this week, I'll say one for honorable mention, but I also really do like it. I've already got to the window for it. But I'm going to go be John Robinson. We talked a lot about beach on this week or this season, I should say his number right now for his rushing yards in this game against the Carolina Panthers, sitting around 95 and a half, starting to see 97 and a half pop up as well, but it's on the move to, I wouldn't be surprised that this close is close to a hundred and a half, but it's time we get to Sunday for beach on Robinson. And I'll see Chris is just a fade of the how bad the Carolina Panthers rush defense has been five straight games have allowed a hundred plus, uh, Russia against them, seven of the last eight games they've given up, uh, 100 plus rushing yards to a single running back. Earlier this season, Bijon had 95, uh, against the Carolina Panthers. I know Tyler Algier that game, a hundred had a hundred plus there as well. And in a game that the Falcons are going to need, um, and again, no disrespect to Michael Pentec's junior, but we're going to trust more of these spots, you're going to hand the ball off the Bijon and get those yards on the ground, or are you going to trust the arm of Michael Pentec's junior? Uh, I think you're going to hand this ball off to Bijon Robinson and you take a look just at what he's done on the ground over the past several games, um, for this, a lot of Falcons offense. It's been what we've expected Bijon Robinson to be, uh, last week, he had 90 received or sorry, rushing yards, but prior to that, 94 against the Giants, 125 against the Raiders, 92 against a Minnesota Vikings rush defense that has been one of the better ones this season. And he had 102 against the, uh, LA Chargers there as well, um, he's had 22 or more rush attempts in for the last five games. So again, if he does get close to 20 plus rushing yards in this game, or sorry attempts in this game here, uh, Chris, I think he crushes this number. I wouldn't be surprised if he get was close to 120 yards in this game here. So this was my favorite player of the week here at Bijon Robinson over 95 and a half rushing yards here, Chris. Yeah, we talk about, um, these lines being half for a reason here, you know, but Michael Pentec's being back there, it makes sense that they're going to kind of around continue to hand them the rock, uh, this, I see this all the way up to 97 and a half. So it's not like people have been under, uh, people are, you know, fully expecting a hundred plus yards, uh, rushing, um, in this game against Carolina. One of the, you talked about it, one of the worst defenses that we've seen, he, he's done well against them in the past and, um, yeah, uh, back at home to, to in the season, makes a lot of sense for him to go out and style here, you know, um, I just also love that they're running the ball a lot. He's up and over the number 97 and a half and 15 of his last 19 games. Uh, so a lot, a lot of, uh, love for, for Bijon here in this week and I, and I agree with it as well. All right. Let's get over to player problem. Number three, man. What do you got? We are going to the game, you know, of the Miami dolphins in the New York jets jets trying to play spoiler. We did not think we would be seeing them, you know, if we would thought that we were seeing just to try to make the playoffs or they, you know, trying to wrap up the number one seed or somewhere in that realm of possibility, absolutely not, the, the Miami dolphins are one point favorites in the cold streets of, of New York, you know, which is, which typically is something that we don't see, but they do need to win the jets will be trying to play a spoiler here in this game. And I'm looking at, uh, Gary Wilson in this spot, you know, if I like his reception prop up and over the numbers, four and a half is a little bit of juice on it at minus 130 minus 135 ish, but, um, Gary Wilson has been the guy for Aaron Rodgers. I know, you know, he got a shiny toy over there, but that's only opened it up for Gary Wilson. We remember when, um, you know, Devontay Adams first got there, they were talking about, you know, you know, acts of Gary Wilson, did he want to be traded? You know, he kind of shut, shut all that stuff down and he's just balled last week, seven receptions against Buffalo two weeks ago. It was out of the LA Rams that he got at home, he ended up with six receptions in that game. So he's up and over this number, back to back weeks, three of his last four, four of his last five, uh, just over the last 10 games, number that he's been absolutely crushing, you know, eight of his last 10 games, he's gone up and over this number, um, recorded seven receptions against the dolphins early this season, uh, averaging right at 5.6 over his last five games. So a little bit of meat left on the bone here, you know, if I think he's the, the reliable target here, uh, for the jets, uh, against this Minnesota, I guess this Miami defense, um, that that's, you know, trying to, trying to play spoiler here, you know, if I know that they haven't been great, uh, in no form or way, but, um, for Gary Wilson to go out there and give five receptions, I think that, that is on the bingo card for this week, you know, so we're going to go get Wilson up and over four and a half receptions, minus one 30 here. Yeah, you got one. You want to keep this guy happy, um, because we're not sure what the future holds for both Aaron Rodgers and Devontay Adams, um, for the New York Jets next season and, um, you know, with there was some talk of, you know, like you mentioned, the trade talk of Gary Wilson, is he going to be around for this jets team next season? If Aaron Rodgers is a quarterback, not sure, um, but I, you know, a lot of time we talked about the season when you seek these, uh, water receivers, I guess, you know, complaining a little bit that they're not getting the football and usually they're getting the football for the next several weeks, but the targets I've been there for Gary Wilson, like you mentioned, he's had five or more catches in four of the last five weeks as well, you know, the opportunity where like you mentioned, they are going to be trying to play spoiler here against Miami Dolphins, who are going to be starting a snoop Huntley, uh, this week against the New York Jets here. So another great opportunity here for Garrett Wilson to really get the, uh, receptions in this game, uh, whether it is going to be Aaron Rodgers, full game or whether it is Tyrone Taylor that comes in maybe after that, who kind of give this team a little bit of a spark against his former team last week in the Buffalo Bills there. So do love that one, um, all right, for my final one, Chris, I'm going to keep this one simple, it's probably a square play, but, um, I'm looking at Justin Jefferson this week, Sunday night football, um, it's, it's a, it's a big total, 56 and a half. Books are expecting a lot of points to be scored in this game, but no, in games, Chris, where we see, um, it's for all the marbles. I think this is where the, the, where the star players step up, and I think that's going to be Justin Jefferson this week. We, I mean, I'm not going to read the numbers and the targets that he does get. I mean, that, that just jumps off the page here, uh, but the official number right now is at 91 and a half for Justin Jefferson. He's gone over this number and for the last five games, but Chris, what's really stuck out to me about Justin Jefferson is his numbers in Detroit in his four, uh, four occur games against a lions, um, in Ford field. And I'll quickly read off these numbers to you. Four games against the lions in Detroit, nine for 133 11 for 182 11 for 223 and 12 for 192 yards. So he's had three games where he's had 180 plus receiving yards. He's had all four games in his career against Detroit, where he's had 130 plus receiving yards, uh, in this game. So I think Sam Garner will look for Justin Jefferson often. We've talked about how, um, bad this Detroit Lions defense has been throughout the season. They've struggled to, um, you know, keep opposing teams out of the end zone. I think we'll see Justin Jefferson have another field day fast track in Ford field, whether it's not a factor. I think this is going to be a big game for Justin Jefferson. So give me Justin Jefferson over 91 and a half for receiving yards in this game against the Detroit lions. Justin Jefferson doing a little grizzly out there, you know, shaking his arms back and forth. I like it. Probably fine paid there as well. Um, you mentioned, I think this is a definitely a stars will be stars type of game. Um, I won't say too much because I, I would agree with all the analysis on the play. I do have, um, a touchdown score in this game as we transition. So yeah, we, we, we, we, we'll, we'll, we'll both agree that stars will be stars in this type of, uh, high magnitude type of type of game, you know, if this is, like you said, all the marbles, uh, we know he did, you know, they went out and gave them the contract. We, we watched them on why receiver, uh, you know, do, do his thing. I like the look right here, you know, for a lot, uh, for Justin Jefferson this week. All right. So those are three player props, each for myself and Chris, let's get, uh, get into some odd, but mentioned to your Chris, um, the one I did, what I mentioned to you was Naji Harris on his rushing yards this week. This number was very, very conservative to me, but I do know that Jalen Warren has taken over, um, I guess majority of the snaps, uh, for that backfield for the Pinterest dealers, but Naji's had a lot of success in his career against the Cincinnati Bengals rush defense or lack thereof. Just the last four games for Naji against the Cincinnati Bengals, Chris, uh, he's at 70 or more rushing yards, 75 or more rushing yards in the last four head to head meetings, but last four meetings, 90, 99, 78, 75. So that's one I did play. Maybe I'm falling for the number here, but it feels like it's a buy low opportunity. Jalen Warren is expected to play in this game. He's single to rib injury. Not sure how much that will affect him in this game, but I feel like we see a heavy dose of Naji Harris in this game. If he's able to get 12, 13, 14 carries in this game, I think that he can get up and over this number of 45 and a half. I play that 44 and a half. It's up to 45 and a half, but I like this all the way up to 55 and a half. So that was the one I was looking at for this week and then mentioned JSN over on his five and a half receptions to set the franchise record, uh, single season record for receptions, time to lock it. I think it holds that record right now for the Seattle Seahawks, but I think he went out to him like, Hey, go get the record. I want you to break it. So anytime, you know, you have a fellow, uh, teammates saying that I think there could be an opportunity for a JSN to get that, um, in this game here. So over five and a half receptions for Jason and then Naji Harris over 45 and a half rushing arts, Chris. You know how I feel about Jason, but I will be on that one. I know he doesn't need the half, but we'll, we'll play it at the half as well, him needing five and, you know, thinking that he can, he can get six in a game that, um, we expect to be, I mean, it's not like the Seahawks are a team that, you know, pass the ball, you know, 25% of the times anyway, if we know that, um, you know, Gino's probably going to give us some kind of quote, you know, you know, wrote us off, we, we didn't write back or something like that. After he catches this and the phone is this week, both were, you know, his self in, in this, uh, in JSN. So I do think that that's, uh, that one's in line, like I'll be on that one with you as well. The Naji one, um, you mentioned the, the, the, the, the carries if he can, if he can get, you know, in that realm of 10 to 11, he is averaging 12, you know, if over his last five games, which, uh, you know, if he's going to run the ball, I mean, we know how much Pittsburgh likes to run the ball anyway and control clock that got 45 to 55% run share over over, uh, past year this season and, um, he's averaging 4.4.1 yards per carry. So if he can get 12 carries, times four, that, that should line up with him going up and over this 45 and a half, if he can just get to his average in this game, it should land him right at about 48, you know, so I think Naji is in a really good spot. Um, I like both of your player props this week. I couldn't, I didn't find anything that I really wanted to get to, you know, if I'm kind of, if I'm being honest, a little, a little overwhelmed and flustered with all of the incentive base and, uh, the ones that I like, I really, really love this week. So I didn't really want to force anything else. Um, I think, uh, you know, a look at, at, um, at Joe this week, you know, I'm probably not going to get there his touchdown prop. I was wishing the line was more one and a half, maybe a little bit of juice, but two and a half, um, plus one 54 probably the biggest number that I've given out on the show this week. Now, can Joe go in and throw for three touchdowns? Yes. Has he had success against Pittsburgh before? Yes. Do the Cincinnati Bengals need to win this game? Yes. Do I think Jamar chase scores a touchdown? Yes. But I don't know if it's going to be three paths and touchdowns. You mentioned the injury to Chase Brown last week as well. Um, all of those things kind of, you know, just kind of put me on the fence. If I look at the numbers real quick on Joe this, this season, um, his past and touchdowns in general are, uh, he's had three, he's had three. So he's been crushing this line, um, but we wouldn't say crushing. We say barely getting over, but it's been, what is this, uh, eight straight weeks, you know, if he's had three past and touchdowns or more, he did it against Pittsburgh. The last time these two teams played, uh, so he had three last week against Denver, three against Cleveland, three against Tennessee, three against Dallas, three against Pittsburgh. Like I mentioned, three against the Rams, uh, I'm sorry, Chargers, four against the Baltimore Ravens and five against the Las Vegas radar, uh, the Las Vegas, um, Raiders, I'm sorry, Baltimore Ravens. So it's been eight straight weeks, you know, if he's on my list plus one 54, if you want to put a little sprinkle on it, I couldn't talk anybody off of that. It is down to one 20, uh, overall and better MGM. So we'll see if the steam continues to come down, but the best number is available on Joe barrel to go up and over his two and a half past and touchdowns in the game that they absolutely need to win this week, you know, so he was the, the guy that kind of was on my list, but I didn't quite get there. Well, last one out there out there, Colin Murray rushing your access to that 31 and a half right now. I think that's definitely going to be on my card as well. We talked about at the top of the episode, he needs a 50 plus and a rushing touchdown to get that contract incentive bonus. So I think that numbers a little bit conservative, especially since he's done it, uh, more times than not in his career against the, uh, San Francisco 49ers. All right, Chris, let's get into touchdown scores for this week here. We talked about Derek Henry, um, it's minus 240, but I think this would be the week that if you want to put them in a parlay, um, that he needs, again, he gets that one more touchdown for 500,000. I mean, I, I mean, it's Derek Henry, we've, you actually crushed his player prop of the touchdown prop early. That was a note sweat won this season, but, uh, Derek Henry, I think that will minus 240, but I do like that, um, the honor Hopkins needs one for the contract incentive bonus. I don't see odds on it just quite yet, but that will be something I'll keep an eye on to see if he's going to be playing this game. Um, couple of ones more I'll throw at you. Marcus Vanda Scantley is one. He needs one as well. Uh, he's at plus two 35 this week, uh, to get a contract incentive bonus there as well. Um, let's see here, Tony Pollard, I'll throw it out there as well. So a lot of mine this week will be based around these contract incentive bonuses, at least for the touchdown scores. Um, maybe baked in a little bit on those odds there, Chris, but I'll give you that. And then I'll go with Zach Earths as well. He's the guy that we didn't really talk about in the section there for, um, contract incentives, but he did crush it last week, he did get two touchdowns, but he's also another guy that needs another two touchdowns, uh, for a more, uh, contract incentive bonuses there for him. So those are the ones I do like this week. And then one more, the guy's been, uh, automatic machine, uh, Brian Thomas Jr, if you want to look at his yards again this week as well, um, but his, uh, touchdown odds at plus one 35. So Derek Henry, Brian Thomas Jr, DeAndre Hopkins, when it does pop up Zach Earths and, um, yeah, I think that's it for me this week. What do you got? Chris. Yeah, I think, um, I like your list. You know, if I like your list, a lot of a couple of those guys that has circled as well. So DeAndre Hopkins is available, you know, okay, we get a nice, nice price on him. He's plus five 50 right now. I don't think that that's going to stay there. It's sort of a good idea to score a test at any time touchdown for DeAndre Hopkins plus five 50. It looks like on bed, MGM, uh, draft Kings looks like they, I don't know if it just popped up, but they have plus four 50 for DeAndre Hopkins. I love that one. It's really polar. I think the line only moves there. You know, if it is, it's not plus money, but it's minus one 25. And I think that he has a really good chance to get your Houston Texans this week. I like that one a lot. Zach Earths at two 75 you, you laid that out perfectly as well. Um, I'll go, I'll go Jamar Chase, you know, just because he's still plus money at plus one 38 over on bed MGM. We know that he's, uh, facing this triple crown of receiving and, you know, receptions and yards and touchdowns. He wants all of him, you know? So, um, uh, he's, he's also what, trying to tie the bingo single season record, uh, two away from breaking it. So, um, I think some incentive for him to, to, to get there. Uh, he has what, um, seven touchdowns and 10 games in his last 10 games as well. So Jamar Chase at plus money, uh, can't leave that off my cart. And then I'll throw out one more that would be, no, two more. I'm Ron. Say Brown minus one oh five. Uh, you mentioned, um, you know, the other star wide receiver, they, they respect each other a lot. Um, you know, him and Justin Jefferson, uh, he scored in seven of his last 10 games, key res on target, of course, for the Detroit Lions, uh, they're battling for the NSC North title. Um, I think he'll be heavily involved in the passing game this week. So, uh, we'll go Amara love everything that you mentioned, you know, Jamar Chase. And then, um, I don't know if I'm going to bet this one, you know, but, but Lamar Jackson, just because of the MVP race, I think, you know, him kind of solidifying his case for that. You look at this Browns defense. They've given up 12 Russian touchdowns this season. Uh, we got a super dual threat quarterback, probably the most dual threat that we've seen in quite a while. Uh, he rushed for 119 yards and two Russian touchdowns in, uh, his last four games. So, uh, looking at Lamar Chase, um, your, your, your ones with Zach Hurds, maybe I'll sprinkle a little bit on all these, but the Andre Hopkins at plus five 50, I will definitely have some, some change on that Tony Paula, that minus one 25, Jamir Gibbs at plus one 38. I'm Rossi Brown at minus one oh five. I'll throw out two more for you, uh, Devonta Adams, plus one 45, we know Aaron Rodgers needs one more for 500 career passing touchdowns. I got about that one. Yep. Yeah. Devonta's had, I think number 200 and number 400 from Aaron Rodgers for his career. Um, but I do like that. And then, uh, we mentioned Kyler Murray, he's at plus one 70, uh, to, uh, find the in zone this week. So I'll go those two more at you, uh, for this weekend, uh, Jay Jetta minus one 30. So a lot of action, uh, for this final week here, uh, for touchdown scores here. So again, like Brecky will always say a bit responsibly. All right, Chris, uh, last order of business here, best bets for the week 18 games and then we'll quickly put together our underdog fancy entry to wrap it up here, man. Who are you going with your best bet? Uh, I got to go with the guy that needs it, you know, not that Jamir Gibbs doesn't need to have a big game and can't get a 17 year rush. Like I said, he has an eight of his last 10 games and Gary Wilson has been crushing the receiving prop as well, but, um, we're going Joe. I mean, they needed, they absolutely needed it this week, they need a lot of other things to happen for him as well, but I like it against Pittsburgh. He's had a really, you know, some success against them as well, uh, recorded 28 completions, a hundred percent hit rate versus the, their opponent, the last time that he played, he's averaging, uh, just south of 30 completions over his last five games, you know, but only one game and that was against the Browns where, you know, that game was just so out of hands so quickly that he didn't need to pass the ball too many times. But I do think that Pittsburgh's going, you know, try to stop him from taking the top off the defense and settle for some underneath throws, which, uh, just lines up really, really well for him to go up and over his past completions here. So we'll go Joe, smoking Joe, 25 and a half, up and over 25 and a half past completions this week. You know, best bet week 18. Love it. All right. Uh, for my best bet, I'll go quarterback as well. Let's wrap it up our best best with quarterbacks. Baker Mayfield over 256 and a half passing yards. Again, I think this is a game where, uh, he wills his team to that NFC South division title, uh, led by him, Mike Evans, um, I think it was a good opportunity. He's done great at home this season as well for his passing yards. I think that, uh, he's going to continue that momentum into this game against these new urban Sains where he's had back to back games of 300 plus passing yards against his team. So I'll take Baker Mayfield over 256 and a half passing yards as my best bet. All right. Last order of business here before we wrap it up under dog fancy entry here for, uh, the week 18 games here, um, let's see here, Chris. All right. So I think we'll throw in Joe burrow, uh, not think, but we'll throw in Joe burrow, uh, you said, uh, his completions, right? Or his past attempts, completions up and over 25 and a half. All right. Here 25 and a half completions for Joe burrow. I'm going to throw in Baker for his passing yards, higher 255 and a half and let's see if they have, you want to go higher on Kyler Murray rushing yards or do you want to go Justin Jefferson higher on his receiving or they'll leave it to you. I think I liked, I liked the spot, you know, for, for Kyler, you talked about it being the Senate base as well. I liked that number. You said the number was what 31 and a half on his recent Russian yards. And he needs what 50, 50, a lot of, a lot of wiggle room in there. Yeah. So even if he finishes at 49, we catch the bet. He doesn't get in his Senate and we, we can be okay with that too. Yeah. Underdog has that 30 and a half. So we'll get a discount on one yard there. So yeah. Hey, we're going all quarterbacks for our entry this week. All right. So we have Joe Burrow higher, 25 and a half completions, Baker Mayfield higher 255 and a half passing yards and Kyler Murray higher 30 and a half rushing yards. That'll get you a 5.64 entry. So all three of those are correct for every $10 that you do put in, you'll get $56 and before he sends return for that underdog fantasy entry again, underdog fantasy.com. Make sure you guys use that promo code machine to get a first time deposit offer of up to $1,050 deposit bonus of up to $1,000. All right, that's going to do it here for this edition of NFL week 18. We talked about a lot, a lot, a lot on this episode. Player contract incentive bonuses gave you our official plays for our player props, a lot of touchdown scores, of course, best bets and our dog fancy entry here as well. It's been an absolute fantastic season here on the broadcast where we did Thursday night football episodes, obviously the for the Sunday games as well. Like Chris mentioned, just felt like yesterday we were doing the division previews for our season long player props as well. But it's been a lot of fun for this NFL season, not quite done yet because we will be back next week to talk about the post season, the NFL playoffs next week. So that's going to be a lot of fun. And then I'll go back and we'll look at our season long player props as well. See how those turned out for us for this season here, but Chris, anything else you want to mention, momentum, before we get out of here? Not at all. Like you said, this is a very, very in-depth episode, so if people got time, maybe listen back to it because I think we did a pretty good job of providing the oversight of everything that's going on in this last week from incentives to who we think is going to score touchdowns and all of those good things, man. We got a lot going. Hopefully we can finish out the season, finish out the last week of the regular season strong and come back next week and provide some more winners as well. So appreciate everybody for always tuning in, showing all the support. Best of luck this weekend. Like me and I've said, if it's a lot that you love, maybe down the unit side just a tad bit so you can get to spread your action up a little bit across the board and we'll see you guys next week. Yeah, we'll be back next week again. Bit of a response to you this weekend. We talked about at the top of the show about the player incentive, so I guess my advice would be just be smart and careful with that because again, it's all over the gambling space on the social media platforms there. So hopefully we'll be back next week talking about winners. As you guys follow Chris over on the Twitter machine @ChrisBKapping with two P's and two N's. Follow me there as well. That's nerd eight to four more importantly, you haven't already subscribed to the podcast on YouTube. Please go ahead and do so. Then if you listen on the audio version, leave us a rating and review definitely would appreciate if you guys can do that for us. All right. Enjoy the games this weekend for the final week of the regular season. Like I mentioned, we'll be back next week talking about the NFL playoffs till then good luck with your bets. Let's break these books off and always remember to let it rhyme. [MUSIC] [MUSIC] [MUSIC]
The Propcast drops its NFL Week 18 Player Props episode! Munaf Manji and ChrisBeCappinn look around the league of players looking to capitalize on their contract incentive bonuses! The guys give three player props each for the game and also their top looks for player incentives! Additionally, the guys give their anytime touchdown scorers for the week. Munaf and Chris put together their Underdog Fantasy entry. The episode wraps up with best bets!
