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Squawk on the Street

The "Trump Trade" After the Assassination Attempt, Exclusive With BlackRock CEO Larry Fink 7/15/24

In the first trading session since former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt, Carl Quintanilla and Jim Cramer discussed stock markets rising to start the week -- as a number of traders see improved chances for a Trump election victory in November. Which sectors would benefit most from such an outcome? BlackRock Chairman & CEO Larry Fink joined Jim and Carl at Post 9 to discuss everything from earnings and bitcoin -- to the way forward for the U.S. after the Trump assassination attempt. Also in focus: Goldman Sachs' earnings beat, bullish Wall Street calls on Apple, Macy's ends buyout talks, Trump Media shares soar. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer
Duration:
51m
Broadcast on:
15 Jul 2024
Audio Format:
mp3

In the first trading session since former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt, Carl Quintanilla and Jim Cramer discussed stock markets rising to start the week --  as a number of traders see improved chances for a Trump election victory in November. Which sectors would benefit most from such an outcome? BlackRock Chairman & CEO Larry Fink joined Jim and Carl at Post 9 to discuss everything from earnings and bitcoin --  to the way forward for the U.S. after the Trump assassination attempt. Also in focus: Goldman Sachs' earnings beat, bullish Wall Street calls on Apple, Macy's ends buyout talks, Trump Media shares soar.

 

Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

 

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Apple shares rallying after this upgrade over at Loop and now a top pick at Morgan Stanley and Goldman and BlackRock, the latest banks to report. BlackRock's Larry Fink will join us exclusively later on this hour. Let's begin with the attempt to assassinate former President Trump over the weekend, the photo already iconic now on the cover of time. Lots of things to point to Jim in the market, whether that's Bitcoin, the curve steepening, shares of DJT at 1.7% this morning. Yeah, look, I think that we all know that, glad by way of Larry Fink from BlackRock. We know that former President Trump was a pro-growth president, was against any sort of rate hikes. And I think that is also so anti-regulation, which is really the perhaps the most important difference between Biden and Trump when it comes to business. So it makes sense to me that both the yields go up and the market is very much in favor of this because I think there's a belief, I remember when I met President Biden several times on the train, on the way to Washington, he just doesn't really care for the stock market. He just doesn't think it matters. And as we all know, and President Trump would tell me repeatedly, that Dow Jones' industrial average is the way he grades his performance. So you have on the one hand someone who really thinks that stocks are the province of rich people. On the other hand, you have someone who believes that the stocks are the measure of his leadership. How do you think about, as you say, easier regulatory environment, more M&A, maybe lower taxes, and how do you mix it with the impact of, say, deportation or less immigration or tariffs that might end up being inflationary? Well, it's a great list because tariffs we know are inflationary, but it's a way to be able to pay for the deficit. I think if you put 10% across the board, obviously that hurts the poor equally as much as the rich. So it's certainly not anything that is distributed in the sense that the poor pay more. I mean, that's not what historically has been the way to go, ever since President Lincoln decided to have a graduated income tax. I think also that the regulation is remarkably important for business. And the regulations that have come from Biden got their first blow in the Chevron deal, the Chevron ruling by the Supreme Court, which everybody I know practices law in that field says, "Look, it takes away the agency's ability to really have any sort of power." Now, of course, if you stack the agencies with people you want, as I said President Trump would do, if he gets in, then I think you would see people say, "You know what, you got it on the banks, and you got it on the healthcare." So those are the ones that are doing well. The banks are problematic because they're reporting this morning, although I think Goldman was fine, BlackRock was fine. I think Goldman would describe the quarter as fine. They wouldn't say it's blow out. So, I mean, you've got companies that have been regulated heavily and that would be the healthcare companies, and also by the way, the drug companies. But on the other hand, Trump's never been a fan of the drug companies. I mean, I heard people say, "This is the time to buy crypto." Because at one point, President Trump said, "Well, I have crypto." I think you have to, this is the leap too far. I think if you want to buy the banks, buy the banks because the earnings per share are better. In some case, they weren't. If you want to buy the healthcare companies, take your time. UnitedHealth has been in the crosshairs of the current president. So this is not the time I think you can just say, "You know what, what a great time to get in UnitedHealth." And the drug companies, if you're buying these drug companies, which people are, understand that when President Trump was running the first time, I'm calling him President again because he was President, he said, "Listen, I'm the most anti-drug company." But he never ever wanted Medicare to negotiate that I know of. Right. And that was a very big win for Biden against the drug companies. As to your point about UNH, Bank of America, we're going to get all those names this week as earnings get more. Right, so we're dropping the gun. I mean, look, if you want to help individuals, I think the way you do it is to understand that you have a man who could be elected to do less regulation. And if you, therefore, think it's more, you have to think the FTC injustice. And you have to say that he's never been anti-merger. And that's probably the area that makes the most sense. Meantime, lots of expressions of support over the weekend from Tim Cook and Mark Benioff, Elon Musk, Sacha Nadella, Jeff Bezos, more robust expressions of support from Musk and Bill Ackman. Do you get the sense that corporate America will rally behind President Trump? I don't think publicly. No. People like Musk will, because I think Musk is someone who, when he thinks he projects, and some people feel bold enough to do that, some people feel it's opportunistic. I mean, if you had asked me what company could be hurt the most, it would be the company that does not get any subsidies and it's not where the government's not pro. The President Trump never has believed in climate change. So, therefore, why would he favor EVs? So, therefore, you might think Musk is very self-interested. I don't think that's the way Musk thinks. He has a lot on his mind, a lot of businesses mind. I think he just says, "Look, we need a strong president." The reference to Teddy Roosevelt is someone who just basically said, "Speak softly carried big stick." By the way, he's also the guy who broke up in the oil, but that worked out. It was just not the case that Rockefeller thought would happen. We're going to talk some more Tesla, got some Cybertuck data, a new call out of Wells today. We do first, though, want to get to Ayman Javers, who is at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee with the latest. Good morning, Ayman. Good morning, Carl officials here tell me that they have, in fact, stepped up the security posture here at the Republican National Convention in the wake of that assassination attempt over the weekend. But, Carl, it's remarkable the degree to which you see politics as usual coming through here in this convention. We're already seeing an enormous amount of speculation about a possible vice presidential pick by the former president of the United States. The expectation is that could come as soon as today, even, in talking to officials here. They say the roll call voted the state scheduled for later on today. That might be a trigger point for a decision. I'm told that all the candidates for vice president are here in Milwaukee. They are available if they are selected to move right into campaign mode. So all of that coming against the backdrop of this assassination attempt over the weekend. And, of course, we heard last night in the Oval Office from President Joe Biden, who urged the nation to come together. He urged calm. He urged peace and an end to an era of political violence. Here's what Biden said. Disagreement is inevitable in American democracy. It's part of human nature. But politics must never be a literal battlefield and God forbid a killing field. I believe politics ought to be in a arena for peaceful debate to pursue justice, to make decisions guided by the Declaration of Independence in our Constitution. And, guys, one other factor to toss into your conversation, Carl, that you and Jim were just having in terms of presidential Trump, President Trump administration incoming. One of the things that people talk to around the former president is this idea of the Federal Reserve and how independent should the Federal Reserve be. A lot of folks around the former president expected if he were reelected, he would fire Jay Powell pretty directly and move on to a pick of his own. Somebody in the Fed who he would like to see somebody more inclined to lower rates more quickly and make the Fed more responsive to political pressure from the White House. So you talk about all the different changes and permutations and what the Trump trade looks like if you think the Trump is now more likely to win. That's one element to add to the conversation as well, guys. Back over to you. That's a great point, Ayman. And a nice setup. Thank you for that. Ayman Jevars in Milwaukee. Powell does speak in noon in Washington. And to Ayman's point, maybe that's why we're seeing this idea of lower policy at the short end, but more robust. We've got 2/30s de-inverting first time since January today. Right now, I work with Larry Cudlow for multiple years when he was here. Larry, I think it's going to be a key man. He was the economic chairman, key man in the next administration if Trump wins. And when I spoke, when I worked with Larry, this is nothing private. But this is a man who favors growth above all. And when you do growth above all, that means lower rates. That was traditionally was anti-China, lower growth, higher growth must happen. Lower growth under the Democrats, higher growth under the Republicans. So I get that. I mean, I think it's, it, Powell is anti-inflation. That has never been as important as high growth. One of the things that we're going to speak about when speaking to Larry Fink is that he doesn't feel that you can do anything other than grow out of the deficit hole. And that's something we can ask Larry about. But I think that if your pro-growth, there are people who say that is actually lower deficit. That is really important, what you just said. This idea of whether or not you can grow your way out of this spending hole. But for that, you do need people. And that folds right back in. The immigration issue. Yeah, I mean, I think that if you, no one is willing to talk about this through a rail. We've had people want from the current administration. I've asked them, please tell us how many visas have been extended. And they kind of say they don't know. But that's the number, the visas, the number, not the immigrants. Because the immigrants, if you hire them, you will be prosecuted. I know this from being in a situation where I was an employer. And the first thing you learn is do not hire these people. But I'm sure there are people who do it subrosa. And they are willing to undercut anybody who's currently giving you a rate that's public. So yeah, I mean, they're anti, immigrants are anti-inflammatory. I always hate to just say immigrants because not everybody's going to go try to be in the workforce. And not every employer is going to try to hire someone without a visa. But look, it happens. Right. Main time, shorter term. This will be Powell's first chance to respond to CPI last week. The blackout window begins on Saturday. Jim, these GDP numbers out of China were amiss again. They're trying to, look, there's this belief that China somehow is doing everything it can to make things better. The Burberry numbers today, and obviously this is wealthy products, mainly China's 21%. I mean, this is not arguable. This is just a company that we all know makes expensive products, Burberry. What are we going to say? The trillions of dollars that the cities owe. When are we going to own up to the fact that China is the bane of existence for any company that is there from America? Any company. We all dance around it, including the CEOs. I don't know a CEO. I've never had a CEO who says, "You know what, China's just a huge drag for us." It's always like, "Well, this will be the media." The plenary session is going to be great for us. There's going to be stimulus. They're dreaming. This is a country that's on the ropes financially. Retail sales growth in China, an 18-month low property prices, stock prices, all weighing on the consumer there. Look at this world country. We'd be saying we are in hyper deflation, and it's really hard to break. I also think that people don't understand. A deflationary spiral is often harder to break than an inflationary spiral. And you can see that from what happened in Weimar Germany. It's just really hard to reverse. I think we all are used to the idea that China's this great growth engine until you get the earnings. My job was to sell three companies. I wrote a piece this weekend. And these are three companies that would be fantastic if they didn't have China. And yet all the CEOs say the same thing, which is, "Thank heavens, we're in China." Thank heavens, we're in China. I mean, you guys are long kids. This is why you keep missing your core. Although I did think of you on Friday because we had a Goldman, John Marshall, a Goldman, the last list of 25 names that are, they see oddic consensus going into earnings. And they do argue that Starbucks and Chipotle have some upside surprise potential. Well, I debated, I did a piece this weekend was about whether you can buy Starbucks. And I think the only reason you can buy Starbucks is because perhaps people have not linked them as to Israel as much as they were. Because the pro-Palestinian protesters were the undercurrent of why they missed their quarter in America. They missed their quarter in China because of competition and they charged too much. And because of incredibly poor execution were won. We'll see. They're not a reporter this week, I believe, but Starbucks will be an important threat. This is one where they must have. When we come back, market reaction is Jim said to earnings at a Goldman and Black Rock. Speaking of which, do not miss our interview with Larry Fink right here at Post 9 coming up later on this hour. As futures continue to show some robust reaction to the difficult events over the weekend. Stay with us. At EverNorth Health Services, we believe costs shouldn't get in the way of life-changing care. And we're doing everything in our power to make it possible. Behavioral health solutions that also keep your projections at their best, it's possible. Pharmacy benefits that benefit your bottom line, it's possible. 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In the meantime, BlackRock beating on the bottom line assets under management, a record $10.6 trillion revenue coming in just shy of consensus. And as we said, Larry Fink will join us here at Post 9 in the next half hour. Jim, they did say, over at BlackRock, a wave of clients re-risking higher. Yes. I thought that's very fine. We're all really doing it. The way people should know at home is that we get the transcript while it comes out. And when I circle to me, we re-risk. And what that says is that a degree of optimism that I think is not exhibited in a lot of different places. I mean, this is where people decide, "I'm going to put my retirement money," and obviously big institutional clients. To see this says, "Well, maybe this is part of the reason why the market is so-called EdYardenny melting up." They actually refer to people who have been caught in cash and have missed out on some outsized historic returns. Right. And remember, they make money no matter what. I think that we have to talk to Larry about the idea of people just saying, "You know what? We like this infrastructure, this GIP acquisition you made, and we really think that we believe that the future is brighter than the past." Which is really, when you listen to what Larry has been saying, and he came on money recently, he feels that a lot of the younger people do not believe that they can be as wealthy as their parents, which is different from my generation. Maybe something's changed here, and that would be hard to believe in three months, but I regard his notice being incredibly optimistic versus what he was on last time. And that's very hopeful. I hope he sticks, I'm not even talking. He's a genius. He knows the worries of vision. I couldn't believe he's our guest for today, but we're very lucky. But I do think that statement re-risk was the one that caught my eye and said the reason why that the market has been more buoyant as perhaps everybody. These big institutions want more exposure. Meantime. The response to Goldman has been pretty muted. Thick inequities were a beat. We mentioned wealth management. Provisions were low. And which has some people whispering not the highest quality beat. No, but I would say that they missed on a couple of M&A deals that finished one day and two days after the quarter, and that's why their advisory numbers were a little bit lower than expected. I would say it's a fine quarter. It's not an incredibly noteworthy quarter. It's not like, you know, JP Morgan's was better. Cities was better. Wells' fartless was worse. We did not have a chance on Friday to talk to you about expenses at Wells. And whether or not you think that is an isolated episode? Yes, you do. I do. I think they have to outperform. I think that what happened there, they did have that change in terms of how much they're paying for interest. But they're also beefing up investment back into beefing up trading. And you're not seeing the upside yet. It was a downbeat quarter. I mean, I know Charlie Sharp pretty well, and I think that you would say that the ongoing momentum continues, but the execution was not perfect. Right. They talked about the guidance for net interest income and expense guide as well. I don't believe that things are slowing, and so I tell you this weekend, I did it in part of my piece that I do this, a weekend think piece. I said, "Look, now this is in the camp of needs rates lower." So if you want to find a bank that needs rates lower, which is not clear from JP Morgan's city, it's now Wells, as well as his lever to more loan growth, and they're not having it. A commercial real estate, not bad. The usual negatives of how people are not, by the way, different from BlackRock. Not putting their money. Yes. Not putting. So we really have to drill down on whether Larry is a Larry Fink, who's going to come on, is an aberration. Yeah, I was just thinking about the Wells line about allocating into higher yielding alternatives slowing. Right. But I just think they're doing, I'm not sure what they're doing, but I was disappointed. And we on it for the travel trust. Why was I disappointed? Because Charlie Sharp is so darn good. I was surprised he missed. But the momentum's still there, but I was surprised. He's taking that bank from being what I would guard as a terrible feat to something that is really a real bank. And I wanted that to continue in momentum. I think it will next quarter though. We'll have Jim get you set up for Schwab and B of A tomorrow. We'll get his mad dash, countdown to the opening bell. Take another look here at the pre-market as the Nasdaq at least continues to ride this six-week winning streak. When we come back? T-Mobile 5G Internet keeps getting better. Boost your connection to harder to reach places with Home Internet Plus and get Internet where you want it. With Wi-Fi that reaches the attic, I finally have a home office. Get T-Mobile Home Internet Plus for 50 bucks a month without a pay and a Go 5G Plus line. Check availability@teammobile.com/home Internet. During congestion, customers on this plan may notice speeds lower than other customers. And further reduction if using greater than 1.2 terabytes per month due to data prioritization. After $20 you'll credit plus $5 per month without auto pay. Time for Cramer's mad dash as we count down to the opening bell. Now you'll see Macy's down a great deal this morning. The legendary department's door chain and I do want to point out that they... Amazes unanimously terminated the discussions with our cows and brigade for a $24.80 bid. Now it's important for people to know that this Macy's regarding this not as a real bid but as a proposal because we never knew the financing. They do have our cows and this is incredible. Our cows and brigade have two people on the board together. And I do think that this should not shock people. Macy's as well as many people in the investment banking community did not regard the bid as so-called real. The two people that were appointed to the board will stay on the board which I think is a little quizzical but they will. And Macy's is open to any actual real proposal with money. And so let's keep that in mind before you decide to run out because there's no longer $24.80 bid. The $24.80 bid was to use a word that I kept hearing. It really wasn't there. So understand that the bid was more of a kind of a touchy feely thing but it's going to hurt the stock. And the stock is going to end up being among the top five cheapest in the S&P when the smoke clears today. So keep that in mind too. Tony Spring doing a remarkable job. He had just gotten the job when these guys decided to come in which I always thought was rude. I've had Tony on the show and I just think now he's going to get the chance to grooming Dale's eyes nation which is very positive. We're going to talk more about some of the fundamentals behind retail and Amazon in a moment. Let's get the opening bell here though and the CNBC real-time exchange. At the big board it is Bank 3 Capital Advisors celebrating the recent listing of its first ETF and over the Mads debt. Speaking of Amazon, it's whole fruit celebrating the 20th anniversary of its flagship store in New York City. We'll get to that in a second Jim as we watch Breath Fill in here. Any overall surprises about the market's reaction today? No, I think that there's a misconception at least empirically. Biden, for better or worse so to speak if you were against him, has been a benign period for the stock market. And I think that that happened during one of the fastest tightening cycle in history. But also Trump is certainly pro the big rollback of regulation and the regulations have come fast and really been very... Many, many executives tell me the regulations are very onerous and I think the most exciting if you want to play that word is that there will be a lot more mergers and you have two mergers right now. You have a tapestry bidding for Capri and you have the Kroger, Albers, both those just get done. FTC today. Second request on IBM HashiCorp. Yeah, that kind of stuff is going to end. I just think that the agencies have been as this typical in administration in the third and fourth year very strident. And I don't, my view on the FTC is well known I think, but this kind of blocking will land. It'll land because I think that what Trump would say is let's get people in there who want business to get done. And if that means hiring, it means firing people. Remember right now, Rodney McMullen on the Kroger deal saying listen, we got a largely union workforce, we're not going to fire anybody, it's not enough. That would be enough for Trump's. Speaking to which, we got these reports about alphabet whiz, which we're going to talk to Dan Ives later on about. And then you got Cleveland Cliffs and Stelko. You know, Cleveland Cliffs and Stelko, they're doubling down on hot rolled steel, which is just auto. And I wish that they wouldn't do that, but they are very smart company. And one of the things that I find interesting was the stock, it's immediately added. They're immediately recruited, but it doesn't matter when you see a deal, people just get bummed out because there is a stock component. I would tell you that Cleveland Cliffs is ridiculously cheap and that there a Trump administration means all systems go for takeover. Not down a lot, but I do think that when you see some stock in there, people get a little under nine times earnings. Let's go buy it. It's too cheap. Jim, maybe the most important name of the morning is going to be Apple. This is a record high 236 in change. You got multiple headlines. One is about revenue growth in India, the world's most populous country, up 30% plus the 12 months ended March. They're still off a small base. I've been trying to, every time I speak to them, they say, "Well, how about India?" They say, "Well, how about the Philippines?" "Well, I want to know about anywhere. How about Indonesia?" You know, Apple is very smart about talking about a worldwide brand. Don't limit it to different countries. India, tough to do business. I think a lot of us are sitting back and saying, "Okay, how could the WWDC where the ascent started?" They're a festival of basically people who do a lot of business with this. And I think it all came from the idea that, you know what, the next phone's going to be AI. And you're all going to have to upgrade. And the upgrade is going to be record numbers. And there have been a lot of negativity about Apple. Maybe the most I've seen since 2011 when Steve Jobs passed away. And that was just a bad call by a lot of different analysts. They just were on the wrong side of the trade. They decided to trade it, not own it. And once again, I remember speaking to Tim Cook after WWDC and around three o'clock our time. And I said, "Why is this stock down?" And he was saying, "I don't know. Why is this stock down?" I said, "Listen, the privacy, what you said about privacy is remarkably important to millennials, to Gen Z. And what you're doing with AI is incredibly sad. That's what we thought." And yet, initially, the stock was down three. If you remember, that was the last pay-by opportunity. Meantime, I know you're holding the loop note. They upgraded to buy. 300 is 33 times nine dollars. And then Morgan Stanley names it a top pick. Loops point is they could assert themselves as the base cap for Gen AI. Well, that's true. And they made, because everybody was surprising to see that all these companies that have been known as Enterprise Company, Alphabet Enterprise Company, most definitely Microsoft Enterprise, but does have, obviously, with co-pilot, very much from the Superside, that people would want to give them their AI in order to be able to demonstrate that they have great AI, kind of a storefront. And it matters tremendously about that multiple. Now, the Morgan Stanley piece says that there's a 31-target multiple, one turn behind Apple's power peak. Now, again, with people at home, what that means is that the stock is not as expensive as it's ultimately been. So, get in. But remember that when it got to a little bit more expensive, it was the peak in Apple. So, I think there's wiggle room, but mainly Morgan Stanley has always been known as the most, even from the oldest with Katie Huberty. Yeah, Morgan Stanley has been very pro. And when you speak with them, they are not true leaders at all. What they are are believers that the install base is great, that the revenue from service is terrific, and that long-term people just love the product. And when you speak to Tim Cook, he always says, "Why doesn't Wall Street understand that our products love?" What is the problem? Almost like, "Well, what are they using?" I always said, "Well, they're downgrading you using an Apple handheld experience here." And he always laughs about that. And he doesn't laugh very much. I try to be as funny as I can when these people, just because the days are so boring. This is lighting them up. Meantime, Jim, Super Micro, getting into the NDX, going to replace Walgreens. Yeah, and they're on tonight, good Cleveland doesn't smell up. And this is one that is rarely heavily traded by younger people and took in those options that expired during the day. And whoever had them, both in this morning, is going to be well rewarded. Now, there's not as much money coming in, leaver to that. But there are a lot of people who are younger people when you... Okay, sorry, think about this. They want to be in the QQQ with a full retirement, not in the S&P. And that's something that is a little contrary to what a lot of the flavors would say, but is, I think, the right thing. Take a lot of risk when you're younger, buy the QQQQ, so there is money, actually, index, and that is correct. But it's not like the S&P. S&P would talk about... I mean, they're in already, but if you remember what that was like when they got added, holy cow. Right. Speaking of names that have been on a tear, Tesla, once again, to almost the best S&P here today. Despite this maintenance of an underweight out of wells, where they argue, I think they called it puppy love, this retail reaction to recent days. And then you got the Cybertruck, which appears to be outselling the F-150 Lightning. Lightning, which is the Lightning, I think that's also the lightest up in selling as well as I thought. Having driven it, I thought that people would really be crazy about it. But people like the experience, I always thought of the fact that there's a button that you can make it sound like the F-150, the real good ones. I was like, press that button, Regina Gilles, let's get that button, when she's an executive producer and we're riding around on one. I think that the thing about Tesla that's most interesting is that we've all come to use free cash flow as a great way to view companies that don't have UPS. And these guys don't have great free cash flow. They have a lot of love. And I think that people just see that the power initiatives, this is something that's shown this taught us, that the power initiatives can be worth a great deal. Which is why I think also on Friday we didn't get the chance to ask you about the Jonas note in which he referenced a client lunch about Tesla in which the auto business didn't come up once in 90 minutes. And I think that's really good. I think that people are very, very excited about must being a visionary, about energy. I'm not going to disagree because energy is what he wants to do and we'll talk to Larry Fink. Look, AI data center, the need to power the data center with clean energy of what you would have. These make one of the great growth areas of the economy. So I am not going to sit here and say, you know what, we should ignore what Tesla's doing when it comes to energy. I'm going to say, I embrace it the way Adam Jonas does. I have to do that. I just think it's right. In the few seconds we have left Jim, Amazon Prime Day starts tomorrow. Adobe Analytics says, might be looking at a 10% annual rise. You know, the story that I think to keep coming up is how is Amazon's price range mobile going down at a time when, and just doing such a remarkable job. Amazon's a huge position for my child with trust. I still think it's a buying opportunity. I think they're remarkable. Wait, but by the way, when you speak to them, I also like to always point this out. The humility that they demonstrate is charming and it's not phony. I think they're terrific. Right down the line. I always want to point that out because I think that people, well, they always want to know what is the person really like. Like, versus what's Larry Fink really like? And the answer is he was probably unhappy that the Phillies took somebody from the Dodgers. Do you want to bring Larry in? Yeah, I do. Let's get the black rock. I'm joking. This Larry is someone who's just so enjoyable to talk to and so smart. They post an earnings beat, record assets under management. I say record assets under management. I mean, they are taking a lot of money. We mentioned that people are de-risked. Are we risking, which is incredible. Larry Fink, thank you so much for joining us. Hi, guys. I felt that of your quarters, this is the one I felt most optimistic and lifting because it's very clear you favor growth. It's very clear that this is the opposition, by the way, which I wish you would let individuals in global industrial part. I tried to get into it and they said, "No, I didn't want to call you," and so I went in. But you are someone who I believe that growth could get us out of this sham in this country. Well, growth is probably the most important component for all countries in the world today. I spoke as the G7 recently. I did an editorial. We need to find ways of growth, especially in front of an election right now. Both candidates need to talk about growth. Need to find ways of creating optimism and creating opportunities for growth. Growth is not going to come from tax cuts. That's too short term. Growth is not going to come from tax increases. We need to be building America. We need to be reducing the extensive process of permitting. We have an infrastructure boom that is necessary, whether it is for digitization, decarbonization. We are blessed by having energy efficiency here in this country. We can do so much as a country right now, but we're inhibited by our controls and we need to be growing out of this. This is my message not just to the U.S., but to every country right now. We have rising deficits. No one is spending enough time talking about deficits. The U.S. deficits are the largest in the world, growing at the fastest rate in the world. We need to be finding ways of minimizing the role of the deficits on the economy, on interest rates, on inflation. We need to grow. And if we can't grow out of this, these deficits are going to be becoming a big burden. We're going to be really putting on the backs of our children, our grandchildren, a real burden of these massive, massive spends that we can't afford. I think it's important to point out you did not say one candidate is more pro-spend than another. It's all pro-spend. I do think it's important also that President Trump has been adamant that there's been way too much regulation under President Biden. So I have to believe that you would say that the business would be unfettered, and if they're unfettered, that could help the growth, which should therefore lower the deficit. We need unfettered businesses right now. We need growth. And we're going to get growth from the private sector. We can't rely on public deficits anymore. But the public deficits are just growing too fast as a percent of GDP. As a perspective, our deficits were only $8 trillion in 2020. They're going to be at $36 trillion, $36 trillion. We grew our deficits more than a trillion dollars a year over the last 24 years. This is unheard of. It is at an unsustainable level. Yet we have the most dynamic, capitalistic system in the world. We have great companies. We have great ingenuity, great technology. Let it unbound, let it go, great, great jobs, great opportunities. And we'll have a rising equity market that will really fuel this opportunity. Is that a playbook that you think a President Trump would deliver? And what are your thoughts about what happened over the weekend? I believe both political candidates need to be playing that playbook. So let's start there. What happened this weekend is a tragedy. It is a statement of America today, though. We need to create hope. All of us have a responsibility, a very political candidate, every leader, every pastor, minister, rabbi. We all have a responsibility of bringing our community together to bring hope. And that's what we are here for, to bring hope, to provide a better future. You came on a couple of quarters ago, and we talked about how American policy gets processed versus say, Europe's. And your point then was, yeah, our conversations are often loud and messy, but we get it done. Absolutely. Is this weekend a threat to that? No, by no means. This weekend is a wake-up call to the rising hatred. At the same time, it's a wake-up call that we must change. And I think that wake-up call allows us to change. We need a fair and just system. So let's be clear. We need to have ways of having conversations about opportunity. There's too much conversation about the negatives. We need to have conversations about the opportunity and the positives. And we do to inform more people that there's real opportunity ahead. But we need to be helping people who are struggling in this path. But I travel the world. I've traveled the world the last few months. There is no more opportunity here in the United States than any other place in the world. And I say that with pride, and I say that with sheer strength in my conviction, that we are a place of growth. And I believe that is going to be the opportunity for companies like BlackRock to show that and to prove that and to provide that. We announced LifePath Paycheck to give more hopeful retirement. We're about to close our GIP transaction right now. And so we believe the opportunity for infrastructure investing to invest a great new job, better job, bigger job. We have that opportunity. At BlackRock, we had an amazing quarter where we had the biggest quarter in our history of $150 billion of flows in ETFs. No other quarter ever, $150 billion of flows. And so we're in a position now of having these conversations, whether it's the conversations that we're having related to ETFs or where we're having through infrastructure or in Rick Reader's funds or what we're doing in AI and investing in our quantitative systematic equity teams. We've had great performance. In the last quarter, we had 12% operating income growth. We had 160 base points in margin increase, which tells you, we have $2 trillion more in assets today than we did a year ago and the same amount of employees. $2 trillion more in assets is the same amount of employees. That is technology at work. That is just remarkable leverage, not the debt card. And you want, now, one of the things that I felt was really terrific, Larry, I've got an understanding that maybe the people who invest are willing to take one a little more risk. And that was fantastic to hear. Because doesn't that mean optimism? There is growing optimism worldwide. A lot of the optimism is investing. I mean, I said in my calls this morning, the optimism we're seeing in investing in power, data, AI, we're talking about trillions of dollars. The opportunity to rebuild our infrastructure. The opportunity today to build out data centers that are not a part of the grid, but using our gas supply and our wind and solar. And maybe one day we'll have nuclear. These are trillions of dollars investments. I think we have a wake up call in Houston right now with the real shock of how many homes are still at without power. I look at this as an opportunity though. We're here to invest. We're here to build out. We're here to make it more resilient. And those are the opportunities. I think it's important to point out the global infrastructure partners, what this acquisition meant. After you came on mad money, I did a lot of work on these guys. This is the number one fund if you believe in infrastructure. But also, how are you? This is a great opportunity. It's unbelievable. And I wish you could just talk about how this is something that is the future, because we all know infrastructure is the way to go. So I believe the need for infrastructure worldwide is great. The need for investors to look at this as an asset class we're talking about. It doesn't have the risk of high of private equity. It is less risky than most equity. But it has a higher return than most fixed income. And it has inflation to protect it. And in most high quality infrastructure investments, you're going to earn low double-digit returns, 11 to 15 percent, 20-year type of long duration securities. So it's perfect for any retiree. And we announced this prequent transaction whereby we're going to find ways to democratize private markets like infrastructure. So more retail investors can invest in it. With our Aladdin system, which is the biggest investment system in the world, alongside our platform that we have for private markets with e-front, and now with a prequent acquisition, it is our desire to build better data and analytics and then benchmarking privates. And so all investors can take advantage of infrastructure investing, take advantage of more things, and be a part of it. We saw a revolution in ETFs. You know, when we bought iShares, iShares had just over $300 billion in ETFs. Today we're crossing $4 trillion. Okay, that's in 14 years, 15 years. So I believe if we could create the same type of indexation data and analytics, we're going to be able to create ETFs in private markets. But importantly, we're going to be able to create more transparency. So all of our investors, you know, every individual can be a part of this great, wonderful opportunity to invest in infrastructure in America, to make our country strong, vibrant, and the power of growth in the future. We've talked a lot about your shareholder letter about retirement crisis in this country. The risk appetite you're talking about and the opportunities, is that a satisfying? Is that going in the right direction? Oh gosh, Carl, we've had, I think, we had when we started 14 companies that are going to be on LiPath Paycheck. We are having more amazing conversations. As I said, I think in the last quarter, I think LiPath Paycheck, basically, I knew it ties into the back end of the payment. So instead of getting a lump sum as a retiree, you're getting a monthly paycheck. By doing that, I think it gives more hope. And so I actually believe it will become the dominant form of IRAs in America in the next 10 years. And I'm willing to put my reputation on it. The dominant form of I, for a defined contribution for 401(k) investing, I believe it will transform it, it lifts up hope, it gives people more certainty. That's what we need. I think that people have to understand when you're talking about individual investment, this is great. Now, I don't mean to give you a hard talk about anything, it's just a big mistake. But I did immediately go into your company and I said, look, I want to put my in global interest because I think it's really right. And they informed me, listen, it's not a retail product and I accepted that. I have them up and it will. But it sounds like that is very exciting to people. Now, also what you talked about IRA, this is something where you have said over and over again, we want this current generation to feel like they can be wealthier in the future. This is something they can put $6,500 right now if they are in a job. This would be remarkable in terms of the compounding factor with some of the products you have. But if more and more people do that, think about the amount of money that's going to go into our capital markets. And that is the differentiation thing about America. When I go around the world, everybody just marvels at our capital markets. No country in the world has our capital markets. We have the strongest banking system in the world and we have the strongest capital markets in the world. No country in the world has it. This is where getting back to politics, both of our political candidates need to brace us. We need to embrace the capital markets, our banking system. We need to be growing there, provide capital to small and medium businesses, provide capital to our large capitalized companies to do more R&D investments, to do more investing in venture capital. That's the power of capitalism, but that's the power of how we can take control of our own destiny by investing in America's tomorrow and enjoy that growth rate. We need more and more Americans who enjoy this upswing that America's going to have. Our upswing because we're the dominant country in the world in technology. We're the dominant country in so many different areas in healthcare. This is it. This is an opportunity and this is why I remain to be very optimistic. And you think that over that supersedes all of the political divisions that I'm sure get talked about in the countries you visit? I think the political conversations are sometimes frightening, they're sometimes angry. But we need to talk about the divisions. We do come from different extremes and different ideas. But through conversation, let's hope we can find unity. And that's what America was. Through conversation, through fighting, we create unity. We create a direction. We need that direction. We need that unity. I mean, I remember what Ronald Reagan did and he created this economic boom by providing that hope. We need that type of hope again and I'm very optimistic. I mean, this weekend is frightening, but this weekend is also a statement for me to say that there's huge opportunities for America. And we have to be focusing on the opportunities. But let's be clear. We're going to hear the convention this week, a lot of negatives. We're going to hear the convention a couple weeks, a lot of negatives. But that's the political discourse. That should not dissuade people. That should be giving people hope because we're talking about problems. We're talking about the differences. I worry about when we don't talk about the differences. I worry about when we don't talk about the divisions. I worry about when there's a problem that we all know about that we're putting or we're not responding to it. Hopefully, I mean, before the attempted assassination on President Trump, we were all worried about the hatred in America. That wasn't changed. We're all worried about guns in America and the misuse by some people of guns. This doesn't identify anything new, but it's horrifying to see. And so that could be that cathartic thing that allows us to say, we need to do better. We can do better. Now, I know you have been a leader in willing to embrace crypto. You have made it so that people can be in Bitcoin. We hear that you are thinking about Ethereum. These are incredible things. Now, BlackRock is not known as a gun slayer by any means. So you obviously must believe that this maybe is an alternative. Is this an alternative in order to be able because of the deficit? Maybe something long-term people should have? Absolutely. As you know, I was a skeptic. Yes! I was a proud skeptic. And I studied it, learned about it, and I came away saying, okay, you know, my opinion five years was wrong. Here's my opinion. Say this is what I believe in today. I believe the opportunity today. I believe Bitcoin is legitimate. I'm not trying to say there's not bad misuses, like everything else, but it is a legitimate financial instrument that allows you to have maybe uncorrelated, non-correlated type of returns. I believe it is an instrument that you invest in when you're more frightened, though. It is an instrument when you believe that countries are debasing their currency, debasing their currency by excess deficits. And some countries are. I believe we have countries where you're frightened of your everyday existence, and you have an opportunity to invest in something that is outside your country's control, then you can have more financial control. And so I'm a major believer that there is a role for Bitcoin and portfolios. I believe you're going to see that as one of the asset classes that we all look at. I look at it as digital gold, as I said before, and I do believe there's a real need for everyone to look at it as one alternative to, I would say, the optimism that I have in the world. If you want to hedge hope, Bitcoin is not an instrument for hope unless you're hopeful you're going to make a lot of money on it. But I look at it as a vehicle in which you're expressing your financial acumen in something that you're more frightened of the world, you're more frightened of your existence. And I believe there's a great industrial use for it, and I think a lot of people are missing that. I couldn't agree more, I changed my mind about it, but you did. You were in my thinking, it was like, I don't believe it, so I can't believe it. I want to thank Larry Fink for the message of optimism, and also for a great quarter. Larry Fink is the co-founder, chairman, and CEO of BlackRock, I think the most important investment company in the world. Thanks guys, Carl. Good to see you. Jim, you mentioned SMCI tonight, right? Yes, and look, this is part of what Larry mentioned, it's part of the infrastructure of AI. And to hear from someone who knows that AI is a positive and growth is so great versus the lot of I to believe that it gets in the way of growth. It doesn't. We'll see you at 6, Jim. Thank you. Mad money, 6 p.m. Eastern time. Main time, all-time highs for the Dow, the S&P, the NASDAQ, and another day of outperformance on the Russell of 1% stay with us. You've been listening to the opening hour of CNBC's Squawk on the Street. 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In the first trading session since former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt, Carl Quintanilla and Jim Cramer discussed stock markets rising to start the week -- as a number of traders see improved chances for a Trump election victory in November. Which sectors would benefit most from such an outcome? BlackRock Chairman & CEO Larry Fink joined Jim and Carl at Post 9 to discuss everything from earnings and bitcoin -- to the way forward for the U.S. after the Trump assassination attempt. Also in focus: Goldman Sachs' earnings beat, bullish Wall Street calls on Apple, Macy's ends buyout talks, Trump Media shares soar. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer