KCBS Radio In Depth

Just how far can Gavin go?

While many in the Democratic Party, and Base, are still coming to terms with Kamala Harris' loss in the election, California Governor Gavin Newsom is going on offense. He seems determined to forge a future for himself and the party. Will his particular blend of California politics prove palatable for a broader audience? For more on this, KCBS Reporter Mary Hughes spoke with Sonoma State Political Science Professor David McCuan, on this edition of In Depth. David McCuan

Duration:: 30m
Broadcast on:: 03 Jan 2025
Audio Format:: other

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You're listening to KCBS in debt. Really, in order to find quality care, you often have to be on a weightless that's months long. The people, places, and issues, the Bay Area is talking about. The aggressive advocates who are looking to overall row for so long, they really had no idea of the consequences they might be opening up. In this case, there very well may be charges that are appropriate. For example, trying to instruct an official proceeding of Congress, right? That is unlawful. This is KCBS in debt. While many in the Democratic Party and in the Democrat voter base are still coming to terms with Vice President Kamala Harris' loss to President-elect Donald Trump in the presidential election, California Governor Gavin Newsom has been on the offensive, preparing for a Trump presidency and trying to figure out a way forward for Democrats. Welcome to KCBS in-depth, broadcasting throughout the Bay Area and streaming on the Odyssey app. I'm Mary Hughes. But will the challenge of reaching dissatisfied voters, while also maintaining well-known California tenants, prove too tall of an order for a Newsom "I'm the President" role in future? To help me tackle this question and more, I'm joined by David McEwen, Professor of Political Science at Sonoma State University. David McEwen, thank you so much for joining me for this in-depth conversation. Well, it's a pleasure to join you. Thank you for having me back. Let's start with post-presidential election Governor Newsom. Recently, he had legislators come together for a special session to "protect California values." There's a focus on things like funding for the State Department of Justice, in preparation of lawsuits to file, to protect California laws on immigration and abortion and so on. And this all feels very in keeping with a Governor Newsom, California. But what's been the response with state lawmakers and other politicians within the state to this request to bulk up reserves? Yeah, there's some very interesting kind of dynamics going on in Sacramento. That's important for your listeners to know about, but also lays out in context some of the dilemmas and dichotomies the contradictions that Democrats have as they look to counter Trump and look for California to be front and center in countering Trump. But at the same time dealing with some home issues. And those issues include obviously the budget and the status of the budget, California's economy where it's going, and also taking a pause, really kind of taking an exhale from the election results in November and trying to decide what the way forward is. And further examples of this, you have two legislative leaders who are relatively new to their roles. Senate Pro Tem, Mike Maguire, up here from the North Coast, a Sonoma State political science alum I might add. Mike is a new pro tem leader. He's someone who's had inside some difficult relations with Governor Newsom, especially around calling this special session, but also in other elements in terms of working publicly. They're very close and their buddies behind the scenes. It's a little bit more difficult relationship. Then you look across to the assembly and Robert Rivas. And Speaker Rivas from Salinas is someone who takes the Democratic caucus in a very different direction from his predecessor, Anthony Rendin, more along the lines of a moderate Democrat. And that really, if you look at Governor Newsom's record, he's much more moderate than is his reputation. If you fast forward to this special session, the governor is only asking for a little more than $25 million to combat or to fund lawsuits that they anticipate will push back against Trump administration initiatives, about $25.5 million. In the scheme of the fifth largest economy in the world, that's not a lot of money. So there's an ask here that's important, but it's actually quite underwhelming. And I think it illustrates some of the dilemmas contradictions that Democrats have. They want to engage Donald Trump where they can, find common ground where they can, take a pause to think about what comes next over say the next 900 or 600 to 900 days. That is moving us into 2026 and beyond when Governor Newsom is termed out after the 26 period in 2027. And then also what it looks like to combat Governor Newsom. So they're kind of walking and chewing gum at the same time, trying to show that they can do that in the midst of a backdrop where California's economy is struggling. And that will obviously affect the budget and the budget announcement that comes out in early January. So there's actually quite a bit that's turning, even though our focus is largely what's going on in Washington, DC with Trump 2.0 and everyone's concerned about the holidays. So it's a very interesting kind of peak behind the curtain as to what's going on in Sacramento. And where Governor Newsom himself is headed moving forward as he tries to exhibit some political maturity amidst kind of a churning undercurrent of disgruntled that's going on throughout the state. Well, and that's very much what I've been thinking about ever since November 5th, you know, came and went is Newsom's path forward and what that looks like. And of course, as you said, we're getting this insight now to the inner workings of what's happening in Sacramento. And you mentioned, of course, this dichotomy that, you know, these things existing at the same time. And one of those aspects is that simultaneous to his very strong stance that he's putting out there right now of, I think it's Trump proofing is the quote that I have seen out there in the world is the fact that he also very recently traveled to parts of the state that voted for Trump in this election, which, you know, for context for those listening, a number of counties flipped from blue to red in the state when it came to the presidential election. So, you know, I've been curious to get insight and thoughts on what exactly Newsom is doing to try to understand why some voters in the state that is tend, you know, tend to be viewed as a liberal stronghold in the country, wouldn't vote for Vice President Kamala Harris and are maybe turning away to some degree from the Democratic Party. What can he do to reach them? And what is he seen and how is that being interpreted by the Democratic Party here in the state? Yeah, fantastic kind of set up and question there, Mary. Here's why you're seen in real time. Governor Newsom trying to play a role that is stewardship of California in difficult times and illustrates not just his credentials to do that, but to illustrate some political maturity, some growth and nuance about his approach to governing. That is a nuanced approach that sometimes is difficult within the Democratic caucus with labor, for example. The California Teachers Association saved Governor Newsom's political career in the sense of pushing back against the potential recall of him in 2021, essentially re-electing him a year before he had the stand for re-election. And yet other elements of labor have had difficult times and have had to go kind of mano, mano with Governor Newsom on funding budgets for schools, but also other elements of the budget or elements of labor and what's gone on. For example, Governor Newsom, you know, endorsed Proposition 22, which was the Uber lift ballot measure from a few years ago, which helped his tech friends, but at the same time labor went to the mat. It's through legal channels to try to overturn Proposition 22. If you look and see what happened, this particular election, this last cycle, Governor Newsom, what was against kind of criminal justice reform, Proposition 36, but he was delicately privately so. I mean, he was publicly against it, but he didn't do a lot to campaign against it because he and his team, his very capable team, knew that California voters were going to vote for that ballot measure overwhelmingly, and indeed, they did. So you see this kind of public persona that's out there, but also trying to find a new way forward. And so you go to places that are purple. You go to places that are red, and California is a very diverse state, and given the election results of November, even within this very deeply blue state of California, go to those places to say, look, my message can speak to those people. That allows him and his team to test messages that they can sell in battleground states, like when they go to the Iowa State Fair in the summer, and they're chewing on a fried pork chop walking around. That's when he's running for president, but you want to do that not just in Iowa. You have to do that in Michigan and in Pennsylvania. The two states that were labor is really important, and the working class vote is hugely important. And that contrasts a little bit with Governor Newsom's own style, with his moderate push. And the reason for that is that he has an executive's mentality. This is the guy who leads companies, is close to tech, is close to Elon Musk. And in that sense, he is someone who is not a traditional Democrat. So he and his team want to find a way forward that repositions the Democratic Party. They did this in the wake of the Dobbs decision, where they didn't want Democrats to be 90 pound weaklings with sand kicked in their face by Republicans. And they wanted to take a national leadership role about reproductive rights. They did that, but that also painted them into a place where they were seen as left. And he's had this reputation, particularly around culture war issues, beginning when he was San Francisco mayor, about same sex marriage, you know, he was a leader in that arena nationally. And they have this culture war issue that they have elevated themselves to, which is a place that many in the moderate middle to moderate right, even in California, find themselves pushing back against those things. So you have seen elements of this and evidence of this in their messaging to kind of position more to the middle. You don't just debate Governor DeSantis of Florida on Fox News. You have a series of veto messages, even as late as September, October, where the governor is positioning his veto messages as a parent. He's talking about what's going on from the perspective of being a parent. And that moves him to a place that more people can identify him in the middle. And that's strictly about kind of limiting, if you will, some of the culture war stereotypes of Gavin Newsom as a limousine liberal, as a West Coast Pelosi liberal from the state of Nancy Pelosi, which he talked about at the Democratic National Convention. But to position himself more as not just a cheerleader for Democrats, but a new way forward for Democrats and the Democratic Party. And that's squarely about 2028. Previous to the election, I had a couple of conversations that were very focused on the Latino vote, the Latino voter base. And we did see in this election cycle that more of the Latino vote did go towards President-elect Trump. And that there was conversation about not only reaching Latino voters on a country-wide level, but what it means to actually go and pursue that vote here in California, where that is an intensely strong voter base. It's huge. Is there any questions on being able to reach middle class, middle of the road, moderate working class voters, when Newsom is thinking about what we all suspect to be the future run as president? Yeah, excellent kind of observation, because if you look at what is happening nationally, right, and whether you look at the work of Mike Madrid, the Lincoln Project co-founder and his book on the new Latino century and what's coming forward, and you look at that across the nation, or even drill down to that in California, the Latino vote, not homogenous, not stereotypically one thing or another, but is a behemoth of influence and is clearly changing. It's been a subset, a voter subset, that's been up for grabs maybe since 2012, 2016. And we typically think of it as more democratic than not, but we've seen over a couple of cycles punctuated by the 2024 results, where Donald Trump grew his support in a big way, created a new type of Republican coalition that might be wide, but not necessarily deep. And so the opportunity for Democrats to claw back some of the losses with Latinos, with African American men, with other voter subsets, is there, if you can create a message that is about working people, about affordability, doesn't ignore inflation, talks about the price of groceries, and opportunities moving forward. Some of that is about home ownership, and home ownership, and the homeless problem, or issues around affordability in California, are right in the wheelhouse of Governor Newsom, but they're also a double-edged sword, if you will, here politically. There are places where the number of homeless that are in California, in two cities, in San Francisco, in Los Angeles, and in San Francisco County, in Los Angeles County, is large, and creates pictures. It creates, if you will, television ads against the governor that are powerful. So you have to be able to thwart that. You need policy success. And one way that you do that is you talk about economic opportunity, both through college attainment, through degree attainment, but also through non-college attainment. That might be professional programs of apprenticeships, through junior colleges, for example, to develop a strong, professional, successful working class that deals with the trades industry around being an electrical worker or a contractor, being someone who works in the housing industry, someone who works in industries where you can make a really solid living and build your American dream. And if you have roughly a third of the construction industry in California that is undocumented or is not on the books in some ways, that means you can speak to this problem on issue of immigration from a place of professional success, of attainment, of growth, and then you can deal with issues where those that have come here through legal channels have some resistance to those who have come here not through legal channels. And governor Newsom can lead that conversation. Can he do that effectively to tie that to an economic message that limits the loss on the culture war issues and speaks to traditional values that many Latinos have around family, suspicion of government, around worries about regulation, and can lead to success and attainment of the American dream. That will be the needle that he has to thread and he has that opportunity. Can he do that and show success in about 750 days? Because that's when he's termed out of office. That's not a lot of time to do so. He's going to need the cooperation of the legislature. Democrats will get that, but he's also probably going to need the ballot measure process to send some messages about what he believes, putting things on the ballot, which will make the 2026 ballot measure ballot, the direct democracy ballot expensive and controversial, but it is an opportunity for him as he tries to move up again to the national stage. Well, threading the needle is right. You took the words right out of my mouth there. And this one other aspect to this simply because there was a lot of this going on on social media as I think the Democrat voters were trying to figure out, okay, what comes next? Who can we rally around as someone to step up after four years have gone by? And Newsom's name, of course, is being tossed around. And I was seeing him on various posts on X where he was kind of getting the Gen Z treatment to a certain degree. But is he actually a rallying point for younger voters and for progressive voters? Yeah. So if you look at it, there's some challengers on the horizon for governor Newsom in that demographic. And obviously the Swifties and the Beehive that Kamala Harris was able to get behind her campaign might have translated to registering young people, but didn't translate to votes, going on the podcast about avoiding Joe Rogan or not getting on, call her dad, whatever that looks like. As he gets into that place of going into new media and the shards and splinters of media, he's going after those 18 to 35, 18 to 29 year old voters, and they're all over the map. And that means you have to pay attention to what Governor Westmore of Maryland is doing because he's doing the same thing with younger Democrats, not strictly progressives, talking about a moderating message and focusing on economic opportunity and race. But obviously Shapiro, Governor Shapiro is in there. Obviously Gretchen Whitmer is in there. Mayor Pete, they're going to be elements of Bernie. So where does he fall in that place? Because he's from California, because he has titillated about running for president. He's going to be in that place on the short list, but he's 57 years old. That's young in some ways, but also older for that demographic. So positioning himself around a podcast with Marshawn Lynch is really smart at some level. Talking about what's going on to reach younger voters via podcasts and YouTube and social media outlets is the way to go. But his potential rivals are doing the same thing. So one element that they have crafted is doing that on the other side. So if he had run for president, you would have seen him go into Joe Rogan. He's not looking for Joe Rogan's endorsement. He's looking to get one or two out of five Joe Rogan listeners that are that younger demographic and much more male, and that's a place where he can go. He's been identified sometimes derisively with the quote unquote bro vote and with the tech bros. What that actually provides him an opening that's different. And he and his team, I mean, they have pretty galactic ambitions here that they want to create a new democratic movement that is the energy of Barack Obama, somewhat of the moderating politics of a new approach of Bill Clinton, and the promise of America of Ronald Reagan. They want to roll all that together and say they're the only candidate that can do that that brings the progressive left and the moderate middle voter demographics across several sub segments, like by age, into a new set of opportunities for Democrats. That's a tall lift. It's a it's a big, big ask of Gavin Newsom. Let's see if he can do that because again, he only has about 700 to 750 days to make that possible. Local news can come at you fast. Want the latest on what's happening in your backyard? Download the free Odyssey app. Follow your local news station, and you'll get alerts on the top stories making headlines in your city. You can stay in the know no matter what you're up to, and be among the first to find out when news breaks. Plus keep tabs on weather and traffic, so you're never caught off guard. To get started, download the Odyssey app. That's A-U-D-A-C-Y, and follow your local news station. Well, and realistically, at this point in time, what are his chances? Do you think, for a future presidential run, having success? Yeah, I think he has to do a couple of things here in California. It's a rough road, and I don't say this lightly or as some type of thinly veiled criticism of Governor Newsom, but they have owned the political space and the political media space in California. As members of the media, we don't interview him. He and his team invite us to interview him. That's not how it's going to work on the national stage. You're not going to get away with that with the National Press Corps in Iowa or in Washington, D.C. They're just the niche coast. They're not going to stand for it. So the horse that brought you is going to be a different approach. He shares a lot of same political consultants and family, if you will, of consultants and thinking as that we're around Kamala Harris, but there's going to be a drag on him as a California liberal that they're not going to be able to shake. So they're going to have to show some political maturity, some growth, some policy success. Democrats in the legislature, like Mike McGuire and Robert Rivas will help him do that. But they're also going to have to make some tough decisions. So some of that is beyond your control around the budget, around certain legislators that might have to vote their district as opposed to assisting or aiding your ambitions. There's what happens with other potential candidates. There's events. And when you're asking, for example, of $25.5 million, a minor ask in a special session, the person that's going to head those lawsuits and push back against the Trump administration is going to be Rob Bonta, the attorney general that elevates Rob Bonta for potential governor gubernatorial run in 2026. But Rob Bonta hasn't, hasn't advanced his name. He's talked about it, but he hasn't formally entered the race. So what does that look like while your political cousin Kamala Harris is in the background? Why a potential set of other folks, Katie Porter, Tony Overego. So everyone's running for governor. So there's a whole potential kind of role for him to build a farm team, but there's a lot of elements here that their previous approach may be a struggle moving forward. So I think they have some real challenges to create a national voice that is successful. Can they be on the short list? Yes. But trying to bring yourself forward as someone who can unite the Democratic Party with a kind of a vision of a new type of Democrat, Allah Ronald Reagan, Allah Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, man, that's going to be a big heavy lift for them. And just to kind of wrap things up here, because obviously this is a very governor Newsom heavy conversation, but beyond Newsom, where do things stand for California's Democratic Party in general, while there was a stronger conservative voter base for the presidential side of things, Democrats flipped three Republican held congressional seats in California. So what are we looking at on a state level going forward? Yeah, thank you for this question. Look, we're in a place of generational change. If you think about California politics the last several decades, right? It's been really Brown, you know, whether he was San Francisco Mayor or the Ayatollah of the Assembly as the Assembly Speaker, you're talking about Nancy Pelosi, you're talking about Barbara Boxer, Jerry Brown from Oakland and kind of a Northern California centric kind of focus in the Bay Area serving a really outsized role within Sacramento and within Democratic Party politics. That has all shifted south. Whether you're looking at folks that are moving forward, potential rivals for California, Karen Bass, the mayor of LA, or even Rick Caruso, her opponent, who potentially could run in 2026 and could spend, you know, a quarter of a billion dollars of his own money to run. There has been a shift to Southern California. Now some of that might have started with Arnold Schwarzenegger, but Republicans have been in the political wilderness in California since about 2006. So Democrats themselves face this test where labor is not as important as it once was. It's great at blocking things, but it's a core Democratic constituency. You have progressives that have been hugely important but more in Northern California than in Southern California and generational change. What Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom represent that change along with others like Adam Schiff, like Katie Porter, and a host of kind of new faces that are coming up from localities, from Stockton or from Long Beach and from places across the state where they are much closer to say a Bernie Sanders-type Democrat than they are a Bill Clinton or Joe Biden-style Democrat. So the Democratic Party faces this generational change, but also kind of a demographic change, as well as kind of a perception change. What type of Democratic Party is it going to be? And we're starting to see inklings and changes of this framed by a legislature that started changing seats as term limits hit in 2024, which continues to 2026, where more than half of the legislature, by that time, will have been termed out by the 2026 cycle. So the type of people coming in are going to be dramatically different. That presents a real opportunity for Gavin Newsom to revisit and revise his farm team to build dollars and an operation, but it also means the Democratic Party is a bit out of crossroads. And that opens up opportunities for new types of Republicans as we head into 2026 itself. David McEwen, professor of political science at Sonoma State University, as always, a pleasure to get into these conversations with you. Thank you so much. Well, thank you very much. This is a very exciting time. There's a lot going on, so it's a real pleasure to join you, Mary. You've been listening to KCBS In-Depth. Get every episode by subscribing on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, and other podcast platforms. Visit kcbsradio.com for more news and interviews. We are the Bay Area's News Station, KCBS.