(upbeat music) - Hey, Reza, how are you? - Good, Jay, how are you doing? - I am good, I am good. Welcome to episode nine of "Future Forward." - Yeah, one more. And I'm excited about this one, Jay, 'cause this is sort of an episode that is really gonna kind of deepen what we're trying to do with "Future Forward." So, yeah, I helped tee this up. - Yes, yes, this episode is episode nine of "Future Forward," and it is about the 20 laws of thriving and sustainable cities. - Wow. - So, Jay, this is interesting, because the kind of the genesis for the show, but before we talk about the show, we have to, for our new listeners, we have to share, "Future Forward" is a conversation that Jay and I have been having for many years, and we're bringing you into this conversation, it's really strategic foresight about the future of cities, communities, technology, and trying to understand and explore the ideas, the systems, and the challenges that we face as we try to build thriving communities and cities. So, back to the genesis for this show, both of us recently traveled, you know, I went to New York City with my family, you went to Dallas with your family, and we both had a very interesting experience because we both traveled with the lens of "Future Forward." - Yes, we did. It was quite interesting. The experiences we were having in those cities as we were texting and sharing with framed because of how much we've been diving into cities, what makes them tick, what is going on when you experience a city, and it was, we felt we had to sort of come back and frame the show based on a lot of the research we'd been doing over the last few months here and even before the show. But yes, the travel did sort of spark something here. - Yeah, so the way that I described it to you is sort of, I was observing the city with a different set of eyes. Like, I wanted to understand the breadth of it and then I kept trying to sort of deep dive, like I was trying to understand the transportation or sort of the mixed use development or the density of New York City, which is sort of astounding once you were there. And we kept going back and forth and sharing what we were experiencing. And for you, Shay, this culminated in wanting to bring these ideas together. So talk about that a little bit, Shay. - Yes, yes, so you are correct that the research experiencing we've been doing and some of what we've shared already has always been framed from what is the history, what is the present and what are the strategic foresights we can glean from the deep understanding we have. And interestingly, a lot of what we've been sharing is based on some foundational sort of fundamental research by a lot of experts in this field, in this fields of cities and scaling and infrastructure. And so we decided and I thought, you know what, there are some sort of foundational laws here. The cities we visited and the ones we've lived in or experienced seem to have their own nuance but there are always these threads that run through that have been explored by experts. And so it became apparent that we should talk about those laws, talk about the foundational understanding that's been built about cities, even as we experienced the nuances of those cities that we visited. So yeah. - Yeah, so you came up with 20 laws for thriving and sustainable cities and this is the episode where we're gonna introduce that concept and then we're gonna pick five of them that kind of group together and talk about those. - Yeah, and what I'll do before we dive into those laws is just sort of touch on some of that research that we're referring to. So I'll touch on them about five or six. One of them is a paper by Gentlemen 2014. It's when it came out titled Sustainable Urban Forms, their typologies, models and concepts by Yosef Rafik Jabarin is I hope the correct pronunciation. Another really good deep piece of research was from 2001 Urban Ecological Systems, which is Lincoln, terrestrial, ecological, physical and socioeconomic components of metropolitan areas by Pickett and Cardenaso Grove and a few other people. This one is one you and I have referenced, research is by one of the gentlemen, you and I have referenced a lot and the title of this one is Growth, Innovation, Scaling and the Pace of Life in Cities by Jeffrey West, Lewis Betancourt and a few other authors Jose Lobo being one of them and I'll touch that on one more. Thinking in systems by Donnel and Meadows factored greatly in this, it's a book and there's some research papers there as well and the last one I'll touch on by Michael Batty is the size, scale and shape of cities. So this is not a comprehensive total list, it's just some of the 20 or so pieces of research that we dove into Houston AI to help us sort of understand things and then we landed on 20 but we'll start with five today and we will weave the rest into subsequent episodes but these laws have applied even when we didn't explicitly state them in our previous conversations. So what's the first one, Reza? - So first one is urban scaling predict city performance and maybe before we jump into it, the theme that we're bringing into these five laws is about urban structure and system. And we chose these because we were in New York City and Dallas respectively and just experienced this so firsthand and so viscerally that we thought like, this is a good set of five for us to talk about. - To start with, yes. - Oh. - So yes, and he just mentioned urban scaling predict city performance and the idea here being cities grow the exhibit predictable scaling relationships across both the socioeconomic and infrastructural indicators of the city. And Jeffrey West's book and the research I just referenced is a phenomenal sort of deep dive into what this means. And it just demonstrates his research and the one he did with Louis Bettencourt. It just demonstrates that there are some urban indicators that as a city scales with population size, the requirements for infrastructure have a scaling ratio that they follow. And it happens at the macro scale and as the city starts to grow, this scaling relationships break out. We won't dive into the actual numbers of the scales here, but what we do know is that when cities fail to account for this law of scaling, which I would recommend scale, the book scale by Jeffrey West for those who want to dive deeper into this, you will see inefficient resource allocation and missed opportunities for economic growth period. And we're experiencing that in Austin, we've talked about this and some of the transportation issues we have in Austin, if you want to touch on that resin. - Yeah, I mean, I think that when we talked about in the transportation episode, we are picking a roads as the answer to transportation problems and not considering other modes of transport to where we will limit scaling because of that choice. We just sort of will be less resilient and sustainable in that transportation element because we're not thinking about how this law could actually help with solving that problem. - Yeah, and you and I have, we've talked about growing up in Lagos and in Mumbai. Just the, you see it too. You see just the mass movement of people that is almost unfortunately defined by socioeconomic class and the inefficiencies and the consequence stagnation or even a devolution of those cities because we're not factoring these things into how we build the infrastructure to drive just the growth of the city. So, and the performance of the city. It's a law that whether you know or choose to acknowledge plays out every day across cities, across the world. And it's a fantastic, I'd suggest you read the book or the research at the minimum. But it's closely tied to the second one. Second law, which is that urban density drives efficiency. And I can just touch on this a little bit and you can share just some of the consequences as well. So, the idea here being that higher urban density especially when thoughtfully planned can lead to more efficient use of resources which improves quality of life and reduces emissions in cities. And as I just said, it's tied directly to the first one as well. Yeah, yeah. And I think we have examples of places we've traveled to, you know, Atlanta or Dallas or Houston where the sprawl, you know, just that low densely sprawl just increases the infrastructure required. There's higher energy consumption, greater environmental impact, you know, it's so much waste. Now, I would also like say one thing that I know that's a trade-off with density. There are other factors in there. You know, in a city like Austin, you got to have sort of flood control. Like you can make a place very dense but you got to sort of address areas that, you know, allow flood waters to dissipate. And that sometimes gets forgotten. There are some people that want density but don't understand the consequences of densities. It's a nuanced thing. So, I agree that urban density drives efficiency but urban density and we will talk about in future episodes, you know, along with green spaces and, you know, ways for the, you know, the system of that city to operate given the climate that it is in. - Absolutely. And I'm so glad you're pointing this out because the thing about the laws is that you, if just strictly purely implemented on its own, you will absolutely experience the unintended consequences of not thinking about the system that is the city. So, you're so correct. And the third law that we'll touch on actually plays that out really well. This need for understanding the law but understanding the law in relation to the other laws and consequently policies, infrastructure, urban planning, coming as a result of a thorough understanding of all these laws. So, I'm so glad you pointed that out 'cause the point here is not to have you as in our listeners or the people who are dear to and do the work of urban planning say, I should do X. You should do X in relation to Y, in relation to Z and the whole gamut. So, yeah, really good point, Reza. The third one here which plays this out perfectly is that urban innovation drives progress. And the thinking being that cities are hubs of innovation which at Florida proved this out in his book's Rise of Creative Class and some of his own research as well. Subsequent updates to the Rise of the Creative Class confirmed some of the underpinnings of this law. And the idea being that larger cities generate disproportionately more technological innovation and creative output. And it's interesting to frame it again from the trip to Dallas. The experience that went to one of these art walks in a certain part of the city. And that was just one of a lot of things going on in the city that we can. We could have gone to 25 other creative activities but chose. But what it highlights is that just the size of the city probably opens it up to more creative avenues and more opportunities to express your creativity is an innovation. But there's some downsides at where we're finding out. - Before you're down side, I just want to sort of insert a couple of things here from my experience with this. Is like you've mentioned before, Jeffrey West's book scale is a great chapter about like why innovation happens in cities. And I experienced this on a first hand. I have a meetup group that's called that I co-organized with my friend Tulsi, ATX Product Happy Hour. And it's just getting product managers to come together. And we meet first and third Wednesday, Thursday of every month at a particular location. And it's a venue for us to meet and for product managers to come together. The idea is to form community and form sparks and form connections. Because it's bumping into unfamiliar people, those loose connections that actually lead to innovation or ideas or something new, something different. It's not the same routine that you're in, not the same people that you're talking to. It's bumping into someone that's doing something similar or something different that will spark that creative acts that come from being in cities. And that wouldn't exist if you didn't have a city. And because of that density, we can, because the city is large and because it has these people, they can come together. And every month, it's not the same people. It's different people that show up. Sometimes there's some regular, sometimes they're not. That change, that novelty that, you know, creates a space for that innovation that happens. Just wanted to give that example as how it actually happens. It's a fantastic one. I heard a friend who actually also works in urban technology, call it the opportunities that only happen because of serendipity. Yeah, I love that. And he is a big fan of just the hubs and the communities that form in cities that then yield the output. And San Francisco has often been sort of touted as the hub of innovation in that sense. The downside though is when these opportunities are not framed from a community perspective and it's all about innovation and growth and progress, you end up with a ton of inequality because some people end up participating and some don't. And you just increase the inequality in even the best cities that are creating the most innovation for the world. So I, again, goes back to the point from law number two, which is that this law of urban innovation driving progress cannot stand by itself as the framing by which we just plow ahead and build our cities. I think that's such a good point, Che, because I was recently having coffee with someone who moved from San Francisco. And you met her too, Jennifer. She moved from San Francisco. And she was contrasting her experience being in the Bay Area versus being in Austin. And it seems that in the Bay Area, there are more gatekeepers. There's more hierarchy. There's more like a status like where do you work and what you do and who you know is more important. And when she came to Austin, she experienced something very different, which was a more open community that wasn't driven by sort of where you worked or what you did, but more by who you were as a person. Yes. And that allowed sort of more connection to happen, you know, at a human level. And, you know, I absolutely aspire, you know, with my product meetup to be totally welcoming. Anyone can come. You don't have to be, you don't even have to be a product manager as long as you want to come and talk to product people. We welcome you because, you know, I want Austin to retain that generosity of spirit that it's always had. Like it was a reason why I decided to stay in Austin was it because it had this vibe of openness and generosity that I want, you know, that I hope to maintain. And that's what, you know, that's the point that you're bringing up is cities that keep that spirit are more sustainable. And like you've seen the downside in the Bay Area with the homelessness and the urban decay. And, you know, there's a lot of complexity as to why that's happened, but I'm sure that some of it is driven by the downside of only focusing on innovation and, you know, who's the best and where you worked and, you know, the gatekeepers of how that happened. It's such a good point. And it, again, ties to sort of the next law which is around regional cooperation, enhancing sustainability of the cities. And I'll define it, but then use San Francisco as the example again, contrasting it with some of the areas next to it. So the idea here being sustainable cities cannot exist in isolation. If you choose to be a city and the bounds of your city are the bounds of any, like, corporation that exists in your region, flouting this law, it will cause problems. And what you will need to do is coordinate with surrounding municipalities, areas, regions, communities for a sustainable, regional, developmental future. And this, this, some of this comes from Willa's research, which just points out the regional nature of urban growth and sustainability. San Francisco is such a good example of this, a good and bad example, if I may frame it correctly, because what you have surrounding regions that have not benefited as much from the innovation and growth-focused approach to San Francisco. Really? While they haven't grown as much as San Francisco, but some of these around San Francisco that I've chosen to cooperate. So Oakland and some of the areas around there who are chosen to take a communal, regional approach to their growth are not experiencing the high levels of homelessness that San Francisco is experiencing. They don't, they might not have as much innovation, but together, they can better provide for and build their cities. Not saying it's perfect, but there's almost this clear delineation. They choose to live in those areas that are more communal. The public schools are still trying to cater to all socioeconomic classes. There's participation by the businesses in some of those areas because they know the region needs to thrive, for their company to thrive. It's just such a, it's the approach in a lot of the Nordic countries based on some research where it's not just a town in Denmark, granted, it's not a big country, but it is regional. This is one of those laws that we've, the more community has depreciated. It's weakened cooperation and consequently, we're not as resilient as communities as we used to be, in my opinion. Well, yeah, it seems like a really important one, and it makes a lot of sense because, you know, what's the saying, you know, you can, you know, you can go fast by yourself, but you can go further together. Absolutely. And going further together, because we're here for a long time is much more important than going fast by yourself. And this type of cooperation stitches together, cities and communities and how you use infrastructure and systems to allow, you know, that sustainable thriving to occur. I love this one. I need to talk about it more. Yeah, this is one of those that has a lot of depth through it. So it will come up. It will definitely come up. And then the fifth one, and the last one we're going to touch on today is around mixed land use, enhancing urban vitality, and the idea being that cities that have a mix of residential, commercial, parks and recreational spaces tend to be more vibrant, walkable and economically resilient. This comes from a lot of the work and she's come up on this show. A lot of the work J and Jacobs champion, and this was from her research in 1961, just highlighting the urban vitality that comes from mixed use. Yeah, so I think this one makes a lot of sense. You know, you want that variety. You want that street life. You want the, you know, and I experienced that in New York City, just really, you know, in a very, very clear way. I want to sort of contrast this. This law can be misunderstood. You said mixed land use enhances urban vitality. And you see a lot of what are called mixed use developments. That are that are glorified malls, in my opinion, maybe that's a that's a poor description. I don't know how best to describe it, but you see this mixed use development of, like, you know, I'll put a building up and I'll put some shops below it. And it's now mixed use and it isn't because it hasn't because it hasn't integrated with the neighborhood. It hasn't integrated with the the area around it. It didn't come organically. It was just sort of planted over there and it feels out of place. And you see that a lot with gentrification, you'll see a mixed use development going into a particular area and it just doesn't fit. And I think you see that, Shay, in where you work, in the area that your work, you know, that where your office is, you know, is gentrifying at a pace that's, you know, astounding. And some of that development seems organic and seems to be working, but some of it just doesn't, you'll see just something planted in the middle of nowhere and it just doesn't fit. So I think this one, there's nuance to like, I like how you call this law mixed land use enhances urban vitality and vitality and land use being really key and stitching together something that's bigger than just a mixed use development. I cannot add anything that is even going to remotely improve on how awesome that point is, is I experience it when I go to the office and we've had a conversation about it and you're correct. It's again, the while really like these laws is the specificity of the law, but the recognition of the fact that it is a more encompassing systemic take. Yeah, and this one perfectly describes that. Yes. Yes. Yeah. Boy, this is, this is a fun episode, Jay. I have black talking about these. So, uh, it, you know, I, I, uh, this has been such a fun journey to start these conversations and then start paying attention to the world and the cities around us. And, uh, I love that we've distilled them down into these 20 laws and we bring this, we're going to bring this lens into each episode and explain, you know, so, so like you said at the start, not just explore the history and the current and the future, but apply this law and see where it's working and where it's not working and how that law informs where we're going in the future. So yeah, I'm, I'm just, I'm so excited. Uh, this is, this is a fun episode and I can't wait to talk more about this in future episodes. Yes. Yes. And what we'll do for our listeners is also share in text form the rest of the laws and put together an article, essentially, that expounds on these five and the 15 that we've, we've gleaned from all these other articles, um, and research so that it's grounded in expertise from people who have done this work and you and I are experts in our own right and now we're adding just the lens as observers, curious observers of the cities around us and the experts that have, uh, we're standing on the, the, the shoulders of giants in city, city understanding. So it's pretty exciting stuff. And yeah, so she, um, this brings us to the favorite part of our episode, which is mailbag. And I think you have a great one this week. I do. I do. Fantastic friend of mine, which we've decided we'll bring gone to the, onto the show. She's done a ton of great work in, in farming and just the urban spaces and she's done it at the, at the highest levels as well. Kelly James sent us a fantastic mailbag where she says, thank you for the, for the show, which we appreciate, deeply appreciate, but we thank her for listening and being so thoughtful about her response. And she talks about storytelling that cities are stories, living stories. So I try to weave that into our episode. One of the two things she, she pointed out that I want to touch on and we'll dive into when we, we bring her on. She talked about, um, lifecycle analysis for nuclear. This comes from the future of electricity or energy episode that we touched on. She's not worried about a three mile island type situation where the nuclear plant causes, um, destruction around the region. She is more worried about nuclear waste. Like what is the latest thinking on this and the same with recycling of batteries and wind turbines and the sourcing of the rare earth metals. And for anyone who knows Kelly, she is ahead of most thinking about this. So that she's pulled it out means we have to have her on to help explore, explore that future state. She's also super interested in the design questions around every topic we've talked about. What are we, what are we, um, designing in our cities? It's, uh, the layout, the positioning and the placement of things. It are design choices. It's a take and that is true. We're either improving or perpetuating some things by the design choices we make in our cities. And I, again, if you know Kelly, this is, she's an amazingly thoughtful expert as well. So Kelly, thank you. Yes. Uh, fantastic mail back from you. Yeah. Thank you, Kelly. Yeah. It was, you know, you sent it to me. She and I read it and I was like, wow, this is a really thoughtful listener. And you, you and I went back and forth and we're like, we got to have her on the show. No choice. Yeah. So, uh, yeah, I look forward to having her on. Yeah, I'm excited about that. I'm excited about, you know, uh, everything we've talked about today, uh, the laws, bringing that into our show. I'm excited about doing our first show with a guest and how that brings in an expert and a, and, and, and someone that is, uh, thoughtfully thinking about the future and actually working on it. Uh, yeah, um, as always, thank you everyone. Keep those mailbags coming. Keep helping us explore and learn with you. Obviously share and subscribe, like and review, uh, and take a minute to share it with a friend, you know, share this episode with a friend. It's been, it's been, it's been a great episode. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks so much. It's been fantastic. Yeah, we're on our way. Well, we're having so much fun doing this. So I don't, I'm like, I just want to keep doing it. Same, same though. Thanks for listening. Please share and we'll see you all next time. All right. Bye everyone. Bye. Bye. (upbeat music) [BLANK_AUDIO]
