This is today's news talk TNT. Welcome back. Welcome back, ladies and gentlemen, to this live broadcast. We're now number two here at TNT. Today's news talk. I'm your host Patrick Inks and appreciate you guys joining us. And of course, we appreciate the TNT chat community, all of our listeners and viewers who hang out there during the live broadcast Monday to Friday. We appreciate you. We salute you. Fantastic job, keeping it real and keeping us all informed behind the scenes during the show. Thank you very much, everybody there. Now we're going to pivot to the Middle East right now. As we were talking on Monday and Friday, big news, of course happening. It looks like an imminent escalation, but we don't know what form or shape this escalation is going to take regarding Israel's threats to wage war against South Lebanon or against Lebanon really as a country to engage Hezbollah in the south of Lebanon. And the big question is, and one of the ones I hope we'll be able to maybe get close to during this segment is will Israel be successful in dragging the United States into any kind of bombing campaign or attack against Lebanon and against Hezbollah positions there? That's an important question. One of the ones that we're going to try to answer along with just a better understanding of this situation. Now I'm going to welcome on to the program, political commentator based in Beirut, Lebanon, Ibrahim Majid joining us on the live link right now. Ibrahim, appreciate you joining us on TNT today. Hello, thank you for having me with you. No, thank you very much for joining us as well. And Ibrahim, you know, a lot of people are concerned about some of the statements coming out of Tel Aviv of recent. So there's general concern, but also a little bit of skepticism as well from military analysts as to, you know, what Israel is playing at here, because they're not exactly in a strong position contrary to popular belief in Washington and in the mainstream Western media who think that Israel is somehow has an unbeatable position. Engaging Hezbollah doesn't seem to be the case, though, looking at the facts. What is your sort of opening summary here? Your opening assessment of the situation. All right. For the past almost nine months right now, Israel has been doing this genocide and Gaza. Without achieving any military accomplishments, they couldn't fix points. And they couldn't take out Hamas and they couldn't take out the leaders of Hamas as well. All they did was destruction and killing all the children and the innocent. Gaza is very small and it's flat surface. Nothing compared to the south of Lebanon. South of Lebanon is approximately 4000 squared kilometers. Gaza is 360. The surface of South Lebanon is totally different from Gaza. The resistance in South Lebanon is totally different from Gaza. So with this starting with this, we can say that Israelis couldn't achieve this in Gaza. What are they going to do in South Lebanon? Now, the Israelis they know very well the capabilities of Hezbollah. And this is something very good. This will stop the war. It's something that will stop the Israelis from taking any decision that would allow them to go against Lebanon because they know it will be a mutual destruction. We are not saying that the Israelis cannot though don't have the capability to destroy. They do. They have the weapons. They have the capability to do that. But they don't have the capability to invade. And I will go I will go back to that. But the thing is this with South Lebanon, the question is very simple. It's an eye for an eye. Said Nasserallah and his speech was very clear in his data speech. Whatever you do, we're going to do the same to you. And he has been saying this for the past since the end of the 2006 war. So basically, whatever you do, if you attack our airport, we would attack your airport. If you attack civilians, we would attack civilian. If you attack military bases, we would attack military bases. And knowing all this, I personally hide it out that the Israeli will take this discussion of decision, international decision. I'm sorry. And go into a full-scale world with Lebanon, knowing that they don't know the end result of this war. Are they going to win this war? What is Hezbollah going to do? What Hezbollah has the response? Knowing all this, I hide it out at this moment. The Israeli will take this standard position. Yeah, that's so I think that would be a prudent move on Israel's part. But then the question is, you're making a rational argument, Ibrahim. We're making rational arguments here. A lot of the experts are making rational arguments. But do we have rational decision-makers in Tel Aviv? Can we trust that they're going to make a rational decision? Would they escalate for their own political survival? Or as an active desperation for a regime that lets face it, they're in the dock at the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity, popularity internationally, and all-time low. A whole bunch of problems domestically in the Israeli society. Could this be dangerous in terms of what they might do? Netanyahu has a decision to make. Israel has a decision to make. I think the resistance in Gaza and the resistance in Lebanon and also the resistance in Yemen and Iraq pushed the Israeli to a place that they have to take a decision. They have two options. I think they gave them two poisons and they have to choose which one they should drink. First, the option is that you stop the war in Gaza. You accept what Hamas is asking for. You exchange prisoners and this will have a very big damage on the Israeli society for the future. So it's basically a slow death. It's a slow death for the Israelis. But the other decision is this. It's going into a full-scale war against Lebanon. And this will put the whole entity, the whole Israeli entity, in a place where they have it's in danger that it cannot survive. Right now, the Israeli army is exhausted after nine months on a war in war in Gaza, exhausted. And Hezbollah has showed capabilities in the past nine months that the Israeli maybe didn't know about or they didn't know about some of it. But attacking the F-16, it's something shooting down the Hermes, there's another thing. Using a corvant rocket that ranges between eight to 10 kilometers is also another thing that the Israeli has to think about before doing any kind of invasion to Lebanon. For example, Hezbollah is standing the Israelis. Are you able to invade Lebanon? When I have a corner that I use that has the range of eight to 10 kilometers. So basically I can attack you even before you arrive to the borders. The drones can attack you before you arrive to the borders. Are you ready to do that? Are you ready to sacrifice your army? And honestly, Patrick, Israel is not a country with an army. It's an army with a country. And this is the difference. Israel without an army cannot survive. It's impossible. Especially in this region that we live in. So taking this kind of decision right now, I truly believe it's suicidal for the Israelis. Yeah, suicide not just for the military but for the country. That's a good point you make there. It's an army with a country attached to it. So if the military becomes compromised, then of course, that's the basis for the entire country. It's not able to survive in the region without all this overwhelming military deterrence that's enjoyed for quite a long time but doesn't enjoy anymore. And that's a problem. They're going to face now the real deterrence here looks like Hezbollah has made huge advances in their deterrence and their ability to deter an Israeli invasion. But not just an Israeli invasion. This is the important part of the conversation, Ibrahim, to deter an Israeli attack full stop because any airstrikes or any packages that they think that they're going to be dropping on Lebanon. Already you saw this bogus telegraph story coming out of the UK claiming that Hezbollah had missiles at the Beirut International Airport in a in the White House. I mean this is total war. It's funny but it's used to green light and air strike on Beirut Airport. That's what they're doing. I disagree with that. Go ahead. Go ahead. Yeah, I disagree with that point because if you notice the only party that didn't speak about it was the Israeli. They thought to be ignored it because they know the consequences of attacking Beirut Airport. The resistance in Lebanon will attack the Ben Goryon Airport. So basically I mean come on let's be honest Patrick. The Israelis they have satellite over Lebanon 24 hours a day. They know exactly what's being used in the airport. They know exactly that Hezbollah doesn't even use that the airport. I mean they went to Syria for one of the reasons that they went to Syria and the straightforward in Syria was to keep the supplier out there. I mean also another thing the telegraph said Hezbollah has fat 110 in the airport. The fat 110 is 3.5 tons nine meters long. It comes with the radar system that is installed inside the fat 110 with the computer that should be put on a vehicle the size of a huge vehicle to be able to launch this rocket. I mean where is Hezbollah going to hide all this in the airport? Knowing in the airport you know Lebanon very well Patrick. It's divided into two groups. A group that is with the resistance and a group that is anti-resistant and the group that is that anti-resistant does have presence in the airport. So Hezbollah will not take your risk in doing this not for the people because they think about the people before acting anything to damage the people anyway. So they will not do this. Plus for their own security and their own secrecy Hezbollah is a very secretive organization. Very secretive. So doing this will put them in danger that the Israeli knows what they have and the Israeli has been trying for years and years to figure out what do they have? What do they exactly have? They do know of course the Israelis they have great intelligence as well. Nobody should underestimate that. They do have great intelligence but as well Hezbollah has great intelligence. And this is what Hayim Thomas said in his latest interview. He said Hezbollah's tactical intelligence is better than us or at least as good as us. So doing I mean putting Fatah 110 storing in the in the airport. I started laughing when I read the article and it was very very weak article anyway. Yeah it's a little bit of creative writing on the part of our Western mainstream media. They're very good at that by the way. They show there's talents and skills in that department. But the other thing I want to ask you is this. Should things escalate? A very important part of Israel's equation is assistance from two countries which are Jordan and Cyprus. Very important in terms of drone warfare, in terms of their air defense, in terms of airstrikes and coordinating with the Americans, the British and Cyprus and then the same in Jordan. Now if things escalate then invariably this could draw those two countries into the crosshairs of Hezbollah. Because at that point if Lebanon's attacked, Ibrahim then you know all bets are off. Anybody who's involved is a potential target. Are they not? Well say in the following his latest speech, he was very dedicated to Cyprus that when you allow for the Israeli to use your air bases to take off and come and attack Lebanon, you're basically part of this. This is a personal opinion right now. I believe that any country, if the full-scale war happens, any country that opens its airspace for the Israeli to use it, will be attacked. I mean because this is an act of war when you assist an enemy, this is an act of war. You're already declaring war on Lebanon. So basically I don't believe that the resistance in Lebanon will allow anything like this to happen. I just want to make one point clear. For the resistance in Lebanon, I believe that it's much more easier for them to gather information about what the Israelis have in Cyprus than to gather information with the Israelis have inside the entity of Israel. So I do believe that the resistance in Lebanon have a lot of info about what's really happening in Cyprus and who is using the air bases in Cyprus. And by the way, a lot of the people of Cyprus are against the British use their lands to have military bases such as these kind of massive bases. They are basically cities. I read something today that it's almost around 20% of the total size of Cyprus that's used for these air bases and these bases for the Israelis and the American and the British. The people in Cyprus, they do have a problem with that. And I might add how close Cyprus is to Lebanon and to Palestine. If you take off from Beirut Airport in sort of five to seven minutes when you reach altitude, you can see the island of Cyprus. So those who have done that flight, no, it's very close. If the weather is good, you can see it from an area called south part in Lebanon. If the weather is good, then you have good vision. You can see it from the mountains of Lebanon. And it's an EU country. So that draws the EU into the fray and those are NATO operation bases there. Even though Cyprus is not a NATO member, those are NATO bases effectively. So then this whole thing expands very quickly. And I just can't see the benefit right now of the United States getting involved in doing any bombing in Lebanon. I mean, I think that's out of the question personally. Some people talking about it in Washington, but I don't think they'd go. Do you think they'd actually go through with that? I think the United States is reading what's happening in the Middle East perfectly. I think the United States is trying to save us. They're trying to save it. Netanyahu is trying to save himself. And this is the problem that we have. The United States are reading what's happening here very, very well. And they sent Amos Hochstein to Lebanon to speak with President Barry about the ceasefire. Even when he was in Lebanon, Amos Hochstein said something very important that he said, "The only way to stop the war in South Lebanon is to stop the war in us." This is what the resistance have been saying for the past nine months. Everybody that's coming to speak to the resistance in Lebanon, the only answer they are getting one answer by the way. Side note, they offered a lot of political advantages inside of Lebanon. The problems that we have because we don't have a president, etc. The resistance in Lebanon had one answer only. Stocked the war in Gaza, then we talk about everything else. At this moment, I do not believe the United States has any interest in going into a full-scale war. Let's say, Patrick, that the United States decided to go into a full-scale war against the region. Because by the way, the Iranians already delivered Americans standing them. If you get involved in this war, we will get involved as well. This would be a regional war. So, let's say that the United States went into this war and started this massive regional work. I do not believe it will end before eight to ten years. It leads a lot of time, a lot of time, because both and the both parties have the capability to stay in the war and to cause damage on the other party. So, if it stays eight to ten years and the United States win this war, how will they come out of it? What will they do with China and Russia if they come out of it? Even if they come victorious, what will they do with China and Russia? They will have massive advantage on the United States. No, no. The United States knows exactly how to, by the way, one thing, they are very good at losing. They know how to lose. The United States, they really know how to lose and to manage their loss. And this is the problem they're having with the Israelis. This is the problem they're having with the Israelis. I think Blinken today said, "We want a diplomatic solution. We don't want war." When he met the Minister of Corps and the Israeli Minister of Corps, he said, "We want a political solution." And this is what the Americans are trying to look for. Now, how will they achieve it? I don't see them achieving it, except if they give Netanyahu some kind of assurance that he will stay in power in Israel, because Netanyahu is honestly trying to save himself and he is ready to destroy everything, just to save him. Just not to go to jail, basically. Incredible. So there's another reason, Ibrahim, why the timing is not going to be optimal for Israel, no matter what. And one of the reasons, we got some footage here of a destroyed Israeli base. I think this was far back as November or December 2023, and whereby his bullet demonstrated, they had the ability to basically knock out military facilities. It's done this multiple times, by the way, killing the eyes and ears of the Israeli drone fleet and so forth and the Merman base, which they successfully targeted. Those are just really demonstrations, because if Hezbollah really wanted to go all out and do full salvos, you're talking about hundreds of missiles per day for weeks on end. But they didn't do that, did they? They just sent warnings, but those warnings were not really reciprocated by the Israelis. And that really says something, too. They've had, what, seven months to respond? I mean, if they wanted to ramp up hostilities with Hezbollah with such a big, strong, well-equipped military that Israel has, certainly they would have already done it. So if they haven't, there's a reason for that, Ibrahim. Go ahead. And this war was a very smart thing, extremely smart. They started by attacking the pillars on the borders. And if you remember that they started saying, "What is Hezbollah doing, only attacking pillars on the border?" What Hezbollah was doing was attacking the spying devices for the Israelis. So started with the pillars, then they moved to the cameras. So Israel on the border is blind, is why it is that. And this is a very strategical advantage for Hezbollah. Then they started attacking the front bases of the Israelis. When they ended this, they destroyed it, they started attacking the defenses of the Israelis, such as the island, boom, etc. And then they started attacking the new bases that the Israelis are coming up with on a weekly basis. And this is something that the Israelis are saying, "This is what made, I believe. This is what made they say Hezbollah's intelligence is as good as us, if it's not better than us." Because how is Hezbollah knowing that the Israelis is establishing a base in this area, at this moment? This is something that the Israelis don't have an answer to. Regarding what Hezbollah did the past, the Israelis said that Hezbollah has launched around 5,000 rockets and drones to the entity. And this is, I think, more than enough reason for them to start the war. I mean, they invaded Lebanon in 1982 because there was an attempt of assassination for the Israeli ambassador in London. They invaded Lebanon. They tried to invade Lebanon in 2006 and go into a full-scale war with Lebanon in 2006 because Hezbollah could not do soldiers to have an exchange with the Israelis. Right now the Israelis have every single reason to go into a war with Lebanon and yet they did them. What does this tell you? This tells you that at this moment they don't have the capability to do that. I believe they don't have the capability logistically and even the army. Today we read a lot of incredible news like the reserve are saying we don't want to go to the army anymore even if it's even if we have to go to jail. We don't want to go to the army. And this is something extremely important. The army doesn't want to fight. And with an army that doesn't want to fight, you cannot go into a war, especially when you're losing a Gaza. You're losing in Gaza, you're not winning, you're not establishing your goals. And the Israeli started the war with very high goals that are not achievable at any point. And the Americans told them that these goals are way too high. What are you doing? But the arrogance and the mentality that they have. This is what happened. And right now Israel is a daily coordinate. I think Netanyahu is extremely important and nobody would want to be Netanyahu at the moment. You have to choose a poison to drink and you don't have a lot of options. Yes, I like that metaphor. Two poisons, if they decide which one they want to take, that's really two choices, both bad. But that's the situation that Israel is in. It's painted itself into a historic corner. Some will say it's painted itself into a biblical corner. And that's not really an exaggeration if you consider all the forces that are aligned at the moment against it and for it. And the fact that they haven't been able to wage a war against Hezbollah really speaks volumes of the truth of the situation there, which you're probably not going to hear for a while. But eventually you will, you're starting to hear noises from Washington, as you said, from some of these envoys hasn't yet penetrated the actual domestic conversation. But I think in time, it may. Now, unfortunately, Ibrahim, when they say a desperate animal is cornered, it does desperate things. One of those things is using WMDs or ban weaponry, Allah, the Geneva Conventions, white phosphorus, unfortunately, does some horrific things to people and also to the environment, to the agricultural environment as well. We have some footage of what looks like. You've probably seen this, Ibrahim, a white phosphorus attack in South Lebanon. We'll go ahead and show that on screen. But this isn't the first time. Certainly, this isn't anything new. But this is also something interestingly that's completely denied, repeatedly denied, by people in the West, by the United States, by Israel. Nobody wants to admit that they use these banned munitions. And yet they still seem to be doing it. Your thoughts and what have you seen in terms of reports? Top radio. We do have some big news. What is it? What is it now? T&T radio news. For T&T, this is James O'Neill. The U.S. Department of Justice is considering criminal charges against Boeing for allegedly violating a 2021 settlement to protect the company from prosecution over two fatal 737 MAX crashes. The Kremlin is blamed the U.S. for a deadly missile strike on Sevastopol in Crimea, which killed at least four people, including two children and injured over 150. Former NATO analyst Colonel Jacques Baud criticized Israel's tactics in Gaza, describing them as an effort to eliminate the Palestinians. So, Ibrahim, you're from South Lebanon. What's your experience in this area? Well, Israel reviews anything, but it benefits the state. They have used this for stress before, and they are using it right now, because they want to burn the trees, because they believe the trees are covering the resistance fighter in Lebanon, and they want open areas in Lebanon. Now, regarding using W&D, Hezbollah has already said clearly, and many, many previous speeches before, that if you attacked Lebanon with these kinds of weapons and you think of doing this, we have certain goals that we know about you in Israel, and they basically released a video, these two videos, showing the biochemical factories, DIMONA, DIMONA nuclear power plant, the ammonium nitrate storage units, the oil tankers on the HIFA port. They have so many targets that can be used as well. They launch three or four precise missiles, and it reaches its destination, can cause what a W&D can cause. So, basically, there's a deterrence from both parties that this will not be happening. Lebanon is on the borders with occupied Palestine. So, basically, using W&D on Lebanon is something that will damage them a lot. It will be very harmful for this entity, and it will basically cause mayhem inside of Israel. And just the geographical landscape of Lebanon, it has so many caves and so many mountains and valleys. And so, these kind of weapons can will maybe make a lot of damage, not maybe for sure, it will make a lot of damage, and it will kill a lot of people, but it will not damage the resistance. So, using it will not make a huge difference on, it will make a difference, of course, but it will not make a huge damage that will change where the world is going between the resistance in Lebanon and the Israelis. So, both parties have the power to do a lot of damage a lot. And by the way, I just want to make one point, Hezbollah in the Hoodhud video that they released maybe a week ago, approximately, they filmed an area called al-Kiriyot, which where this area lives 200. This is a message to the Israelis that if you attack civilians, we will attack what you consider civilians. If you attack military bases, we will attack military bases. Hezbollah at this moment, from the from the 8th of October, the moment they entered the war. Until this moment, they are managing the rhythm of this war. Every time the Israelis, they want to go a little bit beyond beyond the borders or beyond the the limit that Hezbollah drew for the Israelis, Hezbollah attacks something very crucial for them and they go back. They say, no, we will stay in the rules of engagement in this war. And this is something very important. We never saw this before when some non-state actor is controlling the rhythm of this war between Hezbollah and Israel between the resistance and Lebanon, not just Hezbollah, because there are other factions, by the way, that are in this resistance, such as Harakat Amal, Kouni Suri, Jamais, Samiya. We have so many factors that also are part of the resistance in Lebanon. And this is something very important for the future, but not just one party in Lebanon is fighting this war, but everybody is. There's something in warfare analysis and historical analysis of warfare called the balance of resolve. And the balance of the resolve is which country has the most result, the most resilience, the most ability to endure through difficult periods in any conflict. And people in Lebanon, especially South Lebanon, they're accustomed to their climatized. In fact, in 2006, Israel dropped millions of cluster bombs all over South Lebanon. That's one of the first stories I've reported on there was the mag sites and all the unexploded cluster munitions, which are dotted all over South Lebanon, left over from 2006. And people have just adapted to the situation. So the point is you're already adapted to adversity in South Lebanon. They're not really adapted to any of these types of situations in Israel properly. They haven't had to face anything like this. One whiff of a few bases blowing up and people are packing their cars and basically evacuating settlements. Isn't that what's happening in the Northern occupied Palestinian territories of the entity? Yeah, well, Patrick, sometimes because we have corruption in Lebanon, and we have sanctions, not direct sanctions in direct sanctions on Lebanon, we are paid for this kind of situation. We don't have electricity. We don't have we have a lot of problems in the infrastructure. So basically, if the Israelis are threatening to attack the infrastructure, what infrastructure do you want to attack? I mean, I don't get it. So, but on the other hand, they have infrastructure and they have electricity. And I think a mayor or the minister of the ministry of power in Israel said, Hezbollah can take the power out within 24 hours in Israel. How could the Israeli settlers react to that? They're not used to it. They cannot live without it. And they said we will become a failed state. But here in Lebanon, by the way, I think the summing of generators in Israel has skyrocketed 118 percent since the last speech, because they know exactly what's going on. This is why I truly believe that there will be no big war in Lebanon, except if the Israelis, they want to commit suicide. If they want to commit suicide, they will go into this war because the Lebanese, they are used to we've been in so many wars in Lebanon, civil war, a war against Israel. So many wars against Israel. I can't remember the last time we were in peace in Lebanon. I'm trying to remember right now the Ottomans came, the Romans came, and going back, we have been occupied so many years that we're just used to this idea that we do not have this infrastructure, we don't have this electricity right now, we don't have the power, we're going to economy, economical crisis, but is the Israeli ready for this kind of scenario? I personally highly doubt it. Yeah, it is true. Even if the grid goes down in Lebanon, all government buildings, all businesses carry on with diesel generators, and they have, you know, they're used to it. You have a supply chain, you have distribution of fuel, you have homes with generators, apartment blocks all have generators, they're always ready, they're always working, and people have car batteries that have been modified to provide electrics if they have a small apartment. I mean, this is normal life in Lebanon. That's the whole country, by the way. That's every home. Every home in Lebanon is adapted to this type of situation. I cannot say that that is the case in Israel. I'm guessing maybe 1%, 2% of their homes might be adapted to this, but not the whole country. But that's what you face when you engage in this type of a conflict, you got to be ready to take some damage, and it's going to be infrastructural damage. So that alone, I think, would cripple Israeli society and cause a crisis, the likes of which they've never seen, and probably there's going to be people camping out at Ben Gurion Airport, so they better hope that they don't attack Beirut Airport, that Israel doesn't make a foolish decision like that, because that really is going to create a huge crisis with Israeli society, because that's their escape valve, basically, Ben Gurion Airport. Otherwise, it's going to be boats coming to Haifa, and if Haifa comes under attack, that's not going to work. I mean, as much as CNN would like to have those images of Israelis fleeing on boats and comparing it to World War II and saying never again, I'm sure this would make great mainstream media fodder for weeks on end, but that's not actually going to, that might not actually happen. So they got, they have to think, I just think all the indicators are Ibrahim, that they're not going to be able to go through with a war with Hezbollah. I just can't see it. I totally agree with every single word you said. That's why we described it as suicide, going into this war is suicide. You will lose everything. Everything you've been used to, you will lose it. We in Lebanon, we already lost it due to so many reasons that maybe one day will speak about it, but at this moment, it's up to you. This is the metaphor that I used before. You have two poisons, choose which one you want to drink, and be careful, be careful. If you choose the second one, going into a full-scale war, you don't know the outcome of this war. This will change, not only your army will lose, but your settlers will lose, whatever your economy will lose a lot, will be damaged so badly. We don't have an economy in Lebanon. To be honest with you, our economy is crippled anyway. You do have an economy. Are you sure you want to go into this war? This is what the resistance in Lebanon is sending messages to the Israelis. Are you sure you want to do this? Because we have nothing to lose, and you have everything to lose. Nothing is more dangerous than someone who has nothing to lose. That's very interesting. The things that some people from the outside would look at as handicaps of the Lebanese economy and Lebanese society in this situation become assets, in fact, that completely decentralized. You've got parallel black markets, you've got all very sophisticated network, actually, that allows Lebanon to function on a day-to-day basis, extremely sophisticated. It's taken decades to get that way, but in this particular situation, it's actually an asset. If a war is going to happen, so I think it's a huge advantage. Ibrahim Majeed, I really appreciate you joining us on TNT this week. Ibrahim Majeed, a political commentator, based in Beirut, Lebanon, folks, that's about as good of analysis as you're going to get right now on this situation. Big thank you to Taylor Hood Act, Basil Valentine in the first hour. Of course, again, Ibrahim Majeed with a great analysis on the Middle East. Look, we're going to break right now for the day. We'll see you same time, same place tomorrow, all the best. Signing out.
