The Jon Sanchez Show
7/26 - Wall Street Weekly Wrapup
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If this was one of those-- What's it going to take, Gaunt? What's it going to take? Yeah, I think if we got back to, like, the highs or something, you know, on a day like this, it would be good. It was still very much a reflexive rebound off of some of the weakness we've seen over the last couple of weeks. I mean, I know I was out for a week on vacation and, you know, kind of in a back, but I didn't, you know, the market feels a lot more tumultuous than the numbers would sort of state. And I was looking a second ago, you know what the best sector is this year? And let's take a guess. I mean, if raised technology would be the first technology. I would have thought that, yeah. So at its highs, tech-- and again, I'm looking at sector ETFs that I track. At its highs, information technology was up about 23, almost 24 percent on the year. Yeah. It's currently only up 12 and a half. Okay. That's true. Because of that big gas we've taken. Financials. Financials are the highest, you know, communication services next, followed by utilities and then information tech. Right? You tell anyone really shocks me. Yeah. It does. Those financials snuck up. I mean, I know we've got momentum because we haven't our portfolios, but yeah, year to date I would not have guessed that. No, it would not have guessed that. Yeah. And the interesting part is sort of as we talk a lot about on this show is sector sensitivity and diversification. And I know we use that word like, you know, over-possitizing at some point, but, you know, what is happening now? Why are these sectors working? Because interest rates are moving lower, right? Whether the Fed cuts to or now even chatter of three times this year, you know, you and I were talking a month ago and it was like zero or two, right? So, so as interest rates come down, what do investors do? They go hunting for yield, right? Everyone's been sitting here going, oh, my short-term treasuries are just, I'm hiding in a making fiber, well, guess what? Fed cuts rates 20 to 50, 75 bips this year. You're going to now be at four and a quarter, right? And utilities or financials or other dividend-paying equities that were, you know, persona non-grata for such a long time, why make 5% yield and take all that risk when I can make no, you know, same yield with no risk are now starting to be back in favor, right? Evidence and those types of things. And so that's part of this rotation that we've seen in, and again, we haven't talked about it much, but this has been a factor rotation factor factor factor, I know we say growth value, et cetera. This has been a, you know, everyone was short yen, long tech, so on and so forth, and everything momentum got its teeth kicked in, right? And these reversals are painful. And that's the thing that, you know, so many people have asked, like, can small caps keep going? Sure. Right? Because that's yet another constituent of sensitivity is small cap stocks. I think the numbers like 40 some odd percent of them have, you know, to finance their business via debt. Well, if your cost of debt is now potentially going down, you now have, you know, a happy face if you're a small cap company looking to invest in your business. So these are the types of things you want to think of as your building a portfolio, crafting what is next, what moves with interest rates are coming down, what moves if, you know, liquidity in the system starts to change a bit. Yeah, but I can make the argument though, I can make the argument though that pretty much everything should benefit in a lower interest rate environment, right? We can make the argument. Why do the why? Let's go back to, as you said, the blow up in tech over the last, you know, we'll call it just two weeks roughly, right, because fear of rising interest rates, interest rates come down. Tech should come back. And, but I mean, today, tech did not really participate all that much. But those guys don't care about interest rates, right? The tech quote, unquote, that you're talking of, right? The, you know, you know, right, they don't give a rat's backside about what debt costs, right? I mean, they're sitting just spewing cash and some of these guys, like an apple, for example, makes a ton of money on cash, sitting in their coffers, right? And so that's also potentially something that you look at and say, hey, they were making 5%. Now they're making for, you know what I mean? Like, and obviously they hedged at longer, but, you know, I don't think they can't be non-sensitive on the way up as rates were going up in their face and be sensitive on the way down. That's why I think tech was almost like a source of funds, right? Like, wow, these are really expensive and we saw the Google talking about spending billions of dollars next quarter on, you know, needing to buy chips and, you know, invest in their quote, unquote, AI business, you know, and nobody likes when tech spends money. You want them to sit there and have nothing but happiness of, I spent all my money now, I sit here and just, like, Scrooge McDuck count my pennies as all the people come running to use my products. Once they start spending, that's when earnings start to slow down on some of those big guys. So I think that may be part of the fear, but maybe it was just source of funds. You know, people have done so well in those sectors. Where else are we going to go? We got to sell something, you got to sell tech. I still come back to, and again, time will tell if I'm correct on this one, but usually it happens and, you know, this is all zided historically. We go through periods of momentum and non-momentum and technology, right? And we can sit here and say, rise in interest rates, fall in interest, I mean, I just did a chart overlay of the tenure treasury versus the NASDAQ. And what's interesting, you know, if you look at this, they're almost moving in opposite directions, right? Interest rates coming down, tech goes up. Interest rates go up slightly like here recently, and tech comes down. But my point is, I don't know in this environment, to be honest with you, Jay, I don't know in this environment if interest rates even matter anymore, because exactly to your point, the big names, the apples, the Microsofts, et cetera, they're so flush with cash, like you said, they're making more when the interest rates are higher. But I think more importantly, as you and I had so many discussions this week on, is more so the algorithms, right, in the hedge funds, and, you know, why, why again, why I've said this, Tom Blue in the face, speaking of which, you know, you wake up one day and all of a sudden, everything starts to shift on you, whether it's up or down, and we kind of experienced that today. It's like, what was different today versus yesterday or Wednesdays, you know, massive soft? Really nothing. I mean, I'm looking at the tenure yield. It really hasn't changed much in a couple of basis points in the last couple of days. But I think, you know, explain to the audience, because you know this better than I do, the intricate workings of these hedge funds and the algorithms and things, what triggered them to step in and start buying when, again, fundamentally, nothing changed. Now, we can argue and we'll go through the economic reports of today, but something else shifted today to dry this Dow up 655 points, right? Oh, I mean, 3M helped, right? I mean, there's some things that certainly helped inside of it, but, you know, the word algorithm, right? What is it, right? These things that do, you know, there's inputs into the models that create, you know, appetite in different sectors. Explain the model. We've never done this. Explain the model. You used to write models. Explain it. Yeah. I mean, pick any model, right? If you have a financial model of some kind, you have, you know, if you're looking at a business, you're looking at revenue, and you're looking at earnings, and you're looking at cash flow and interest rates and all the things that go into little sensitivities inside of it, or portfolio managers create strategies that have inputs into a portfolio that has, you know, 20 or 50 or 100 or 1,000 stocks inside of it, and if you're a manager, you have to decide what are my top decile names as in my top 10%, and what are my bottom decile names as in bottom 10% along the top decile and short the bottom decile, and I should have statistically alpha over time if my model is effective. As in, I've gone in and it created a ton of factors that all are, is it raining on Wednesdays? These stocks do better than these ones, or, you know, when China's got a full moon, exactly, right? So think of the power now of, and that's what I keep stressing this AI word that, again, I'm tired of hearing, like AI has got n number of meanings. Ultimately, this is people, common folks now being able to crunch numbers on data that they historically didn't have access to, right? And so much like I do when I'm driving my car, if I really thought about the number of things ultimately that you're doing when you're just driving down the street, it's insane. Now, you know, think of that on steroids, on steroids of all of this data, and not only is it predictive in the sense that if this happens then this, but it's also to some extent generative that if this happens and this happens then, you know, make this occur, right? And so that's, I think, why, you know, folks have used, I mean, you know, quants have been using machine learning and data analytics for decades, right? That's essentially what that is, just more stuff inside the Willy Wonka machine. But going back to where we were talking about interest rates, like that is a massive sensitivity into a financial model, right? The cost of money and what I can do with it and how much do I need to earn in order to make my business either effective or dead? Will the cost of leverage and the cost of money is a major input into it? And that's where some of these models take it as rates change. It's a massive sensitivity to everything. Yeah, and big move today as we'll touch on when we come back, big move as far as a decline in the tenure treasury yield today. But again, back to where are the other factors in today's rally, which I can't get it out of them, folks. I can't get the rip your face off, rallies. I guess it wasn't that good over it. How many small caps? Okay, I'll give people spaces off for sure. But there you go. There you go. There you go. There you go. But there were another number of other factors. We had PCE and inflationary data, and we'll talk about what the latest indication from Wall Street is as far as future interest rating cuts and so on and so forth. So lots of data as we wrap up the week on Wall Street for you. But first, let's turn it over to Kristin Snow. She's in the right now. Traffic, Senator. Hey, Kristin. Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show, a new stock 780 KOH with Jason Conham, Sanchez Wealth Management. Well, it was a heck of a day today as we've been indicating a 654 point gain on the Dow, 1.64%. We closed at 40,589, actually hit as high as 40,753. So you can tell we were significantly even higher up over 700 points in a few moments here. The NASDAQ for the day, up 176, 1.03%, and a closing level there, 17,357, S&P 500 higher by 59 points, 1.11%, closing at 5,459, Russell 2000, L1.7, or excuse me, about a 1.7. Yeah, 1.7. Is that what you're showing, Jay? I've got a bad quote on the Russell, yeah, 1.7 gain for the day. So it was by far the, obviously, percentage wise, the second best performer, or no, the best performer. Let's see. This week, yeah. I'm sorry. Yeah. It was the best percentage. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. As we're going to chart the Russell versus NASDAQ, it's the biggest three weeks. The spread of performance since 2001, in far, I mean, right? And that would be, I guess, what, coming out of the bottom of 2000 blow up, right? Right. Right. Exactly. Exactly. Amazing. Yeah. Weekly numbers, though, and not all that great. But thank goodness we had today, because these numbers were obviously were significantly worse coming into today. For the week, the S&P lost 0.83%, the Dow was up 3/4 of a percent, NASDAQ fell 2.08, and the Russell to Jason's point, a 3.47% increase, a heck of a week for the Russell. Now, where do we sit on a weekly basis, or sitting on a year-to-date basis? Still not bad. Not bad whatsoever. NASDAQ for the year is up 15.6%, S&P is up 14 and a half, Russell is up 11 and a half, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are lager with a 7.7% increase. All right. Okay. So we had a good discussion about interest rates, volatility, so on and so forth. What do you say we move into the economic data, some of the candles today? Yeah. Okay. So, the day got started at 5.30 this morning with the release of the Fed's favorite measure of inflation. We always use that term. The PCE, the personal consumption expenditure, again, the Fed likes this better than they like CPI, better than they like PPI, et cetera. And this was one of the catalysts there. So here's what happened on a month-over-month basis. So this was June's data today. So made it June, it showed PCE prices rising just 1/10 of a percent. That was in line with expectation, year-over-year, up 2.5%, also in line with expectation. And just to give you a perspective, in the month of May, year-over-year, we're up 2.6. So had a little bit of a 1/10 of a percent decline there. But Jason, this is, again, we're splitting hairs to the average person, but that's what this business is all about. I thought this number was going to be right at 1/10. I said this on the show last night because we got a goose egg, remember, in the month of May. So I think we got lucky on it based upon, I don't think we're going to be so lucky next month of this next report that we talked about, the GDP, preliminary data, if that number continues to hold as we got yesterday. But I think this number overall was a decent number and feeds into the camp of what you said, three interest rates. So let's talk about that for a moment. Had we been at highs in the market, maybe it would have acted a little different, too, right? I was like, oftentimes when we talk about an excuse to sell, maybe today was a little bit more like an excuse to buy some of the areas, especially going to the weekend, right? I think, you know, people had leaned short, the real moves and the heavy volume seemed to be down over the last couple of days, which leads me to believe that there was a decent amount of short base coming into today that since this number was, we'll call it benign, right? And again, sort of lends itself towards, what do we get to Fed next week? We do. Yes. The interest rate decision next Wednesday. And so I think, you know, that's part of it is they just, you know, I think you had a fair amount of short covering into, you know, or out of the number rather, no real reason to probably push in either direction. I think that's why we ran and then sort of traded sideways through most of this, another than, you know, a couple of heated names inside the Dow. Exactly. Great. All right. Now let's talk about some of our components that are related to the PCE and that's personal income or personal spending. As we always like to remind all of you, when we talk about personal income or personal spending, remember, Wall Street pays a lot of attention to this report because again, you and I represent roughly two thirds of economic spending. So Wall Street wants to know, hey, how we doing on our income? How we doing on our spending? So the data showed the following for the month of June. Personal income rose two tenths of a percent month over month. Expectation was about four tenths. So it came in a little bit like there. The personal spending, which is really what Wall Street cares about, up three tenths of a percent, which was in line with Wall Street's expectation. So once again, Jason, we got another report showing the consumer is still, quote, hanging in there. Yeah. And hopefully that continues to be the case. Obviously, we've got a fairly fragmented overall consumer. You've got the haves and the have-nots, I think, and, you know, ultimately, the haves are still earning interest on their savings and they're still spending. And I think that's part of what you're seeing on the, certainly on the spending side. But it's nice to not see big spikes. I mean, we are getting our soft move, whether it's, you know, right, flips the other way, and it becomes more of a true deceleration, time will tell. But, you know, University of Michigan number was, I think, overall pretty good, nothing shocking inside there. So yeah, I mean, despite the election, if it weren't for the election, I think this market probably would be even happier, but can you choose that? Yeah, exactly. You know, I think it's interesting that I want to bring that point up. It's very interesting to see, of course, as you were just saying at the beginning of the show, which is so true, the sector rotation we've been talking about it for the last couple of weeks. What is it? Why does it happen? So on so forth, if you missed any of that, listen to one of our podcasts where we covered that. But it's very important to understand, you know, what's going on with this because things really change, right, when, you know, Trump was so far out ahead in the polls, and then of course after Biden's announcement last weekend, and now, you know, I'm like, I just saw tonight, right before the show, Wall Street Journal came out and said, you know, basically they're, you know, Harrison and Trump are just next to next. So Trump, you know, quote, lost his lead, according to the Wall Street Journal. You know, that's just one of many polls, but I think that's the trend we're starting to see. And that does factor. And I know you're having the conversations with our clients. I am. That is starting, as we always say, factoring to investors decision. You know, I've had already some clients saying, you know, is it time for me to go to cash? You know, or should I be buying more if Trump's going to go in? So this is something we're going to be dealing with, obviously, totally election time. Yeah. And, you know, I think the Trump trade was, I'd say, priced in, you know, to a large amount. And maybe you saw a little bit of that change over the last week or two. But you know, all the Twitter is just an absolutely amazing space. Like I said, the tinfoil hats are just as shiny as I've ever seen them. It's amazing. It's just absolutely amazing. I don't know. I don't look at it. You do. Oh, it's on. It's incredible. It's starting to start some my life. Holy moly. All right. We'll come back and talk about what is the streets expectation as far as the feds interest rate cut. We mentioned again, we're going to have an interest rate decision next week. There's a street anticipated cut then, if not, win. We'll cover that when we come back as we recap the week on Wall Street for you. In the meantime, let's turn it over to Kristin Snow. She has news, traffic and weather. Hey, Kristin. Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show, a new stock, 780K which with Jason gone in Sanchez wealth management. Happy Friday to all of you. Well, my good friends over at SNW Attractor, they've got some incredible, incredible financing on specific models. That's right. Zero percent on specific models up to about 54 horsepower or so. So that's a wide range of their models. Want me to share that with you? Great supply of inventory right now. Take advantage of it. Again, you can go out there and be in a nice air conditioned tractor or you can go out with a pick and shovel, the old fashioned way and get your chores done. I recommend the Coyote tractor. It's a great piece of machinery that's going to last you for so many years. Located at 4880 East Nylane and Carson City, phone number 8821225 and online at SNW Attractor.com. All right. It was a heck of a way to wrap up the week, 654 point gain on the down, 1.64 percent. Nasdaq rose 176, 1.03 percent and the S&P higher by 60 points or 1.11 percent. Now as we discuss as we went to break, what is the expectation at this point, Mr. Gaunt, of what the Fed's going to do? So let's get back to that first sec because I have something that's on the top of my time. The earnings we got today, 3M, Norfolk Southern, Mohawk, like to see industrials, transports, companies like that put up good numbers, that's exciting, right? Just to see that other area, the financials by and large, right? Exactly. Financials kind of came out unscathed as far as earnings were concerned. Those are positives, right? I think that that is potentially can be a nice, healthy tailwind into the back half of the year too, just to see some of those industrials act as well as they are. So along those lines, the Fed, they're going to do nothing tomorrow or whatever next week. They can't. I mean, sort of as we've talked about, unfortunately there, they've changed themselves to historically a shock and awe team to shock and awe times negative one. Their goal is to tell you everything before it happens, it's like they teach you to talk to kids now where, "Okay, we're going to go on vacation, Timmy, and we're going to go to the airport." You've got certain places. Right, exactly. You're the best, right? But it does other two or better, but you're still the best. You know, so I think the Fed has no, you know, A, they're not going to do anything this week. They may start to signal, right? They're going to start to say, "Hey, and you're going to see more of the Fed heads over the next month and so start talking about September being a hot month." And, you know, they'll probably, like we've said, most likely cut 25 bips, they're not going to do 50 or some, you know, barring some madness, because it would just inflate or flame the, you know, concern of, "Oh, no, they know something like we all get them." The tin foil hats are very shiny right now. But, yeah, I think they're just going to talk about that, you know, they're getting what they want. I mean, if I'm Jerome Powell, I'm just, you know, hands behind my head leaning back at my chair like, "I told you so," you know, and I think, you know, by and large, they're sort of getting what they wanted. Yeah, absolutely. The street's pricing and basically a 100% probability of that first cut in September as we've said over and over again. But as we mentioned earlier, now the street's pricing in, I haven't seen what the probability is. I'll try to dig that up. 60% is around there. Okay. That's for the next couple. Yep. Okay. Yeah. November, there is no fitting in October as we discussed last night on the show. I heard that. Yeah. I heard you guys. I was listening for a while. Thank you, Joe. Yeah. Thank you. I appreciate that. Yeah, the boys were on fire last night. Incredible job. Dwight was like in the most sentimental mood last night. He was like, "What are you sitting in a room with a candle on and the lights offer?" This is like... I'm drinking a dark in here today. It's kind of nice actually. Yeah. The office, just the screen. It's pretty cool. I know. There you go. So, but yeah, we discussed that as far as the upcoming. So, November is the next one. And remember, as I said last night on the show, the November meeting is what I think it was two days after election. It is. Yeah, the seventh. Yeah. You said that last night. Yeah. Yeah. And then of course, next one in December. So, but what a way that would wrap up the year. Let's roll the crystal ball a little bit here. Think about this. Let's run this scenario. Street wants Trump to get elected. Okay. So, let's say Trump wins. And we get our September interest rate cut. We get the next one in November that will propel the market even higher because the market in my opinion is going to rally if Trump wins the election. And then you wrap up the year with another interest rate cut. Can you imagine for a moment the optimism that will be in this market if that happens? For 50% of the country, yes. The other 50 will be jumping off buildings. Yes. I agree. I heard a really good podcast today was almost talking to the fact that this economy doesn't need growth stimulus, right? That may be a method for some of the things we don't want to see in terms of prices and things along those lines. Like tax cuts and additional stimuli. Is that what we really want or sort of as I've been begging for all along as I'd love to get into a world where sort of post 2008 that the Fed isn't as important as any more. I don't know how we ever get there but where can we have an economy that isn't based on cutting taxes and doing this and some Tom Fuller that both sides do but yeah, the flip side would be you want to be risk on in general because of the fact of interest rates coming down. If there's tax cuts, if inflation does in fact rear its head, weaker dollar. And that's what you're seeing now is that weaker dollar coming to affect the yen's ripped. You want to own commodities, gold, those types of things, stocks, not bonds because those should all benefit from the reflation for lack of a better term if it occurs but we'll see. Yeah. Well, I mean to your point, yeah, there's no way because all those items you said that you wish that were not important, those are vote getting items, right? Yeah. We're going to get your taxes, give us a vote. Well, by the way, we're going to wipe out $30 billion or $300 billion with the student loans. Oh, that's a vote getter. Yeah. I mean, on and on and on. For sure. For sure. Yeah. It's these politicians, of course, haven't. I'd like to see that, you know, the Trump tax cut 22, 24% bracket stay as it is but you know, additional cuts. I mean, again, I'll be interested to see what the plan is as far as no change to entitlement spending along the lines of Social Security, Medicare, those types of things, yet I'm going to cut more taxes. Guess what? Debt goes higher. So you can't, you can't run on, or at least say whoever Biden, blah, blah, blah debt and then cut taxes. Like what, what gets cut on the right hand side or not going to increase social spending and. Right. Yeah. Yeah. Those two things are not, don't go in the same sentence. But yeah, if Trump, you know, cuts, I mean, as you and I have discussions with our clients, one thing that we as their portfolio managers have to, you know, we're really watching closely is the Trump tax cuts, right? Let's remind everybody. Those are set to sunset at the end of next year. And there can be some significant changes and market shifts and so on and so forth, if Trump doesn't win and those, those tax cuts go by the wayside. I mean, you know, not so much on the individual side folks, but let me tell you, if you're a business owner, there were some significant cuts going on in there, you know, as far as accelerated depreciation and so on and so forth, things that really were designed to stimulate. And they did. They stimulated the economy from a from a business standpoint, but again, if those go by the wayside and God forbid, if interest rates aren't significantly lower, yeah, that could be a real problem. Now, let's go back to my, my, my euphoria here, right? Trump gets elected. I'm talking from market perspective. Trump gets elected. We get three interest rate cuts and so on and so forth. Now you and I also have caution and I think it's a good time to bring this up. We got to be really careful about wishing for interest rate cuts. You and I have said this over and over again because it's the goalie locks, right? You don't want it too hot. You don't want it too cold. Three cuts may signify to some investors, uh oh, there's underlying problems, various problems out there. That's a fact. And I, you know, again, they're the Fed currently given where rates are right at, I mean, PCE mid to high 2% right versus a five and a quarter Fed. So, you know, getting down to three, three and a half, three and a half percent over a smooth curve, say, you know, spring of 2025, I think that glide path probably, again, using that analogy, a shoot in the bird where it's going, not where it's at is sort of what the Fed probably has aim for and then now you get rates down 150 basis points. It eases some of that concern of debt needing to be refinanced at the commercial level and so on and so forth and that can be, again, the sort of final, you know, punch whatever analogy you want to use of the cherry on top for the soft landing. If not, inflation stays high, they don't cut rates then, you know, you heard us last time with Dwight, I thought this was interesting to your point. And that is, he said, you know, we're starting to see an uptick in refi activity and I thought that was interesting. Yeah, from people who just who bought over the last year or so. Exactly. But they're, you know, they're pulling this cash out. And so, you know, we, let's talk when we come back, let's talk about, once again, the monetary supply, you know, the M1 and M4 and so on and so forth. If people, you know, if we get this Goldilocks scenario, I just laid out, if rates start coming down dramatically and that will trigger an entire another round of refinanced right now, it's just dribbling in, but another round of cash out refinances, guess what happens? We've seen this before when that happens, people get these chunks of money and guess what? They're going to go spend it, right? They're not going to pay down debt. They're going to go spend it. Let's go. Late Calistide. Yeah, it's right. Exactly. So that is a whole other stimulus in the economy. And so, yeah, there's, there's a lot of things that can happen in the lower interest rate environment and, you know, let's remember, we'll hear it again from Paul next Wednesday on the, at the press conference, but let's remember last interest rate meeting, he was very clear saying, look at where we don't have to hit our 2% mandate, you know, before we cut rates. So here, like you said, here we are, year over year on PC at 2.6%, that's getting pretty dog gone close and, and so, yeah, maybe the street is right and saying September is the first one, but too many could be a problem. All right, let's wrap it up with Kristin Snow in the right now at traffic center. Hey, Kristin. Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on News Talk 780KOH. Well, Jason and I both wish you a very, very wonderful weekend trying not to get too hot out there. Speaking of the weekend, guess what? Before we know what it's going to be Monday, so we're going to wrap up the show by peering into the crystal ball just a little bit. Well, it's not even a crystal ball, just the calendar, the economic and the earnings calendar. So Jay, I'll handle the, I'll take on the economic side if you want to be so kind to handle the earnings side because we are in the heat of earnings season, speaking of heat. All right, as we fast forward into next week, nothing on Monday, Tuesday, we started it all off. We'll have the S&P case show or home price index at 6 AM on Tuesday. Also on Tuesday, we're going to get consumer confidence, a very important report. And then on Wednesday, here we go, we're going to have the ADP private sector report at 6 15, excuse me, 5 15, as we always do, seven o'clock, we're going to have pending home sales and then also on Wednesday, the 31st, the Fed interest rate decision. And then of course Thursday, we get our initial claims, we're going to get some productivity, unit labor costs, et cetera. And of course, on August the 1st, another big report of the week, we're going to get the non-farm payroll numbers. I'm going to do a double take, to be honest with you. It's like, you're kidding me. It's already been a month since we had the, it's like, yes, we had the non-farm. Yeah. And estimates I'm seeing, they are looking for a brief or a pretty good pullback in that number. We had 206,000 that created the non-farm payroll numbers in the month of June, July, they're predicting that number to drop down to about 160. So we'll see if that number holds. But yeah, going to be a busy week, Fed interest rate decision, non-farm payroll numbers. How are we looking on the economic, or excuse me, on the earnings calendar side of things? Yeah. I mean, Monday, McDonald's is really the only headline. Tuesday, we're looking at Proctor and Gamble, Pfizer, PayPal in the morning. After the close, we're going to get Microsoft, Starbucks, Live Nation, advanced micro devices, AMD, as you'll call it, looking at Wednesday in the morning, Humana, Boeing, that's going to be a good one to watch, Kraft Heinz Auto Nation, T-Mobile. And then after the close, we're going to get meta, may have heard of those guys, MetLife, Qualcomm, those are going to be the big movers, for sure, eBay, notable, but things sort of died a bit. Alibaba as well on Wednesday. Thursday in the morning, we're going to get Sigma, yeah, I know we don't as much, but at some point, we'll probably start talking about those names again. Sigma, Conoco Phillips on Thursday, pre-market, Cummings engines, and then after the close on Thursday, we get Amazon and Apple as well as Intel. So that's going to be the big day for sure, yeah, I mean, you know, it's always nice to get those. And I think for another week or two, so, but Thursday is going to be the big day. You get Exxon on Friday, Chevron, Landau, AES, but Thursday is going to be, you know, Tuesdays and Thursdays. They're going to be the exciting ones, and then the Fed will be right there in the middle. Yeah, so, you know, let's add that again to what I just said with the non-form payroll numbers and the Fed interest rate decision, all those big tech names, yeah, it's going to be one heck of a week, so let's make sure we get some rest this weekend. Yeah, for sure. And there's not a lot of gamma right in this market. So with the last option expiration that took place, you know, there's no real forces stabilizing us. Remember, we talked about pinning at a specific price. All of that's gone, and so this market's a little freer to move around, and that's why it's felt a little more choppy over the last two weeks. I think, you know, certainly something to be noticing. We've got the 50-day moving average on the S&P, the NASDAQ, 100-day, you know, kind of upward sloping underneath it. So at least some moving average support. I don't expect some big vacuum lower, barring ugly, you know, data from, you know, the Amazon's in Apple. So I think we've coughed up most of the hairball, but you could see another hairball. Yeah, another move lower, maybe 50-300 level on the S&P is where I think support would be if we did fade. Perfect. All right. Optimistic for next week. That's what we are. Optimistic for next week. Get some great wish that rest this weekend, my friend would do appreciate it. Thanks so much already. God bless. Have a great weekend. This program was sponsored by Sanchez Wealth Management. The material in this program was intended as general information only and should not be taken as specific investment tax or legal advice. None of the information on this broadcast was intended to be a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. 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