Disc Golf Daily

Disc Golf Daily: Covid's Triple Whammy. Is DG Growing?

Summary Disc Golf Daily discusses the growth of disc golf and the impact of COVID-19 on the sport. They analyze PDGA membership numbers and retention rates to determine if disc golf is growing. They find that while there has been a drop in active PDGA memberships, it is still ahead of historical averages. They attribute this drop to a correction in retention rates and a decrease in new members proselytizing. They suggest making disc golf stickier by improving courses and reducing aggravations, implementing better measurement tools for growth and participation, and expanding PDGA membership options to attract more players.

Keywords disc golf, COVID-19, PDGA, growth, membership, retention, proselytizing, correction, stickier, measurement tools Takeaways Disc golf is still growing, although there has been a drop in active PDGA memberships. The drop in memberships is due to a correction in retention rates and a decrease in new members proselytizing. Improving courses and reducing aggravations can make disc golf stickier and encourage new players to continue playing. Better measurement tools are needed to accurately determine the growth and participation in disc golf. Expanding PDGA membership options, such as a free membership, can attract more players and increase membership numbers.

Chapters 00:00Introduction: COVID's Impact on Disc Golf Growth 03:18The Drop in Active PDGA Memberships 05:02The Impact of COVID-19 on Retention Rates 06:25New Members Not Proselytizing as Much 08:55Course Correction and Slower Growth 10:08Takeaway 1: Disc Golf is Ahead of Where It Would Have Been 10:39Takeaway 2: Making Disc Golf Stickier 12:07Takeaway 3: The Need for Better Measurement Tools 12:49Takeaway 4: Expanding PDGA Membership Options 13:48Conclusion: Disc Golf's Adolescence and Future Growth

Duration:: 11m
Broadcast on:: 26 Jul 2024
Audio Format:: mp3

Disc golf is still growing, although there has been a drop in active PDGA memberships.
The drop in memberships is due to a correction in retention rates and a decrease in new members proselytizing.
Improving courses and reducing aggravations can make disc golf stickier and encourage new players to continue playing.
Better measurement tools are needed to accurately determine the growth and participation in disc golf.
Expanding PDGA membership options, such as a free membership, can attract more players and increase membership numbers.

(upbeat music) Hello, race fans, and welcome to Disc Golf Daily. Today, we are going to talk about the COVID triple whammy and figure out if disc golf is growing or not. COVID's triple whammy. Do you know why we talk about PDGA growth so much on this podcast? It is because there are no other reliable metrics in our sport. Yes, we've got Eudisk, but Eudisk is reliant on people using the app. PDGA, you're joined the PDGA or you don't. The PDGA has total membership numbers, active membership numbers, retention numbers. They even measure the number of people that play in tournament rounds and how often they play in tournaments, although those numbers are a little trickier to pull out of the data. Additionally, these reliable numbers have been around for decades, so growth cat patterns can be determined. Here we go, is disc golf growing? I believe it is. Is the PDGA growing? Not this year, but it is still ahead of its historical average. We'll head on that towards the end. Overall, the answer to this question is difficult, which is why the industry as a whole is trying to figure it out. About three months ago, we did an episode that analyzed the growth trends and determined that the PDGA growth would be flat this year. Please note that we are using PDGA growth as a stand-in for disc golf growth because it's the only tool we have. This analysis was based on the idea that newer PDGA members who joined during the COVID boom were less likely to stick with the sport. We said that the newer members were less sticky and statistically determined that PDGA growth would therefore likely be flat. All year, we have seen the numbers trending below flat, and we are now looking at a four to five percent drop in active PDGA memberships. The question is why? I believe that our earlier analysis did not look deep. I did not find any correlation between the number of new members in any given year and the retention numbers of the next year, which was the presumed basis of our earlier analysis. I think we did not dig deep enough. So here is my current thinking regarding PDGA. There are two things pulling us down. First, 2020's PDGA retention numbers were way too high and there is a retention correction going on now that COVID is mostly behind us and people can do other things. Second, about two-thirds of the new PDGA members are not proselytizing at the same rate as the rest of us. They're not spreading the word. Don't worry, I'll explain what I mean by all of this in just a second. Historically, the PDGA has had a retention rate of 82%. As we can see in this chart, we draw a straight line across 82%. It pretty much averages everything until 2021. In 2021, this number increased to 92%. It is clear now that the reason for this increase in retention is because the 10% that normally would have dropped out simply had nothing else to do. So they stuck with this golf. Now that the world is open again, these people are dropping off and I believe we will get back to our 82% retention rate over the next couple of years once they've all flushed through. If you have one number that is artificially way above average, you'll need several numbers below average to get back to average. 2022 did not see the full effects of the world opening up and we were in fact close to the retention average. 2023 did see the full effects of the world opening up and the PDGA retention numbers have therefore dropped. As we would expect, as we should have expected. Although this is a number that we failed to look at in our initial analysis. If we take two more years to get back to our historical average, then this would mean that the PDGA retention rate for the next two years will be about 80%. After that, we should be back to our historical average and getting new members and retaining members at our normal rates. The second part of this, new members are not proselytizing as much. They're not spreading the word. When COVID hit, we got over double our historical growth. For the past 40 years, Disc Golf has been growing at about 12 to 15%. About 90% of the people that are new to the game started playing because a friend invited them. It's how we grow. But the newer players are not only less likely to keep playing, they are also less likely to encourage others to come play. The PDGA new member numbers have historically been pretty tightly tied to the previous year's existing members. Basically, for every 100 PDGA members this year, we will get 33 new members next year. Or that's what we used to do. During the COVID boom, this number increased to 50. So for every 100 members, 50 new members would join. What likely happened is that the cell became easier. When people were invited to play Disc Golf and to join the PDGA, they were more likely to say yes, because they literally had fewer choices. We are now seeing a correction in new membership. We are not just returning to the 33% new members that came from us literally inviting new people to play. We are bouncing below that number. Basically, two thirds of the new PDGA members were expected and one third came because there was nothing else to do. When we look at these numbers, the third that are playing because there was nothing else to do are not going to be as likely to encourage others to play. And this is going to cause the new member percentage to drop. And it has. Historically, for every 100 members this year, the PDGA would see 33 new members next year. During COVID, this jumped to 50 new members. In 2024, we are seeing this number drop to about 20 new members or a 33% drop. Basically, the two thirds of new members that would have found the sport are continuing to proselytize as they would have while the third that found the sport because there was nothing else to do are not. It is a course correction. And I believe this will take at least another year to work through. I would expect our proselytize number to increase back to 33 over the next couple of years. Rough averaging would put it around 26 next year, which would mean that the PDGA would need a 77% retention rate of current members to stay at current membership levels. Even this year, which at 78% retention is the worst PDGA retention rate on record, is above that. I expect we will end 2025 with about 135,000 active PDGA members. And the person signing up at the end of 2025 will be PDGA number 333,000. Disc Golf is growing. The PDGA is in a correction and will be growing again next year and be. I am seeing four takeaways from this. First, we are ahead of where we would have been. Even with these few years of course, correction and slower growth, we are growing off of bigger numbers than we would have been. Disc Golf is in a great position overall. Second, make disc golf stickier. By this, I mean, we should work harder to let the newer players, some of whom found disc golf too early, know that this is a sport that they will love. Our courses are improving, but they need to be better. Actually, on a side note, I'd like to see some stats from U-disc on the average ratings of courses over time. What percentage of our courses are rated to and below? What percentage are four and above? And track this over time so we can see how much we are improving. Positive encouragement. U-disc will give it to us. Also, we need to have better signage, fewer thorns and poison ivy, and more beginner-friendly courses. If we can do these things, then more people that find the sport will stick to it. Imagine playing disc golf for the first time and throwing your disc into a thorn bush or getting lost because of poor signage. That was standard 20 years ago, and it took a special type of person to see the beauty of the game through those aggravations. To get new people to continue playing, we need to reduce those aggravations to make it easier to see the beauty and joy of disc golf. Some of the COVID players came to the game before we could get the game ready for them. If we can improve our courses, it will let the new players focus on the flight of the disc rather than the itch of the poison ivy. And more of them will stick to it. The third thing I see is better measurement tools. The PDGA is our governing body. They need to reach out to the broader sports world and implement recognized measurement tools for determining growth and participation. There are sports organizations that specialize in these types of studies, and it is time for disc golf to be a part of this. Ask three disc golf experts how many people play disc golf, and you'll get three different answers. It is time to resolve this, and it is the responsibility of our governing body to do so. They don't need to just worry about PDGA members. In my opinion, they should worry about disc golf as well. And the fourth takeaway I have from this, more members. It is time for the PDGA to explode. I propose that the PDGA become the universal home for everyone that plays disc golf. There should be a free membership option. This would allow you to get a digital copy of disc golf or magazine, a PDGA number, and play in PDGA leagues for free. If you play in a PDGA event, you should get a PDGA number for free. You wanna see the number of PDGA members double this year? Make a free option, and let's start to show the world how many of us there really are. Disc golf is having a COVID reset. The nice thing is that there are more of us to weather the reset with. In 2027 or 2028, we're gonna look back at the COVID boom and the COVID correction with our disc golf family and say that was a crazy ride, and I'm glad I got to ride it with you. It all comes down to people. Disc golfers are a tight group. Maybe not as tight as we used to be, but still tight. If you see a disc golf shirt in the grocery store, you can't help but be happy and possibly say hi. Disc golf is entering its adolescence. These are going to be awkward years. Working together, we will get through it. Our acne will disappear, and I can't wait to see what we grow into. Thanks for listening. Thanks for sharing the podcast. Now get out there, throw 'em straight and hit the thin gap. If you have any thoughts, news or opinions, shoot us an email, discolfdaley@aol.com. Thank you so much for watching. Please like, subscribe, comment, and share. It really does help us grow. (upbeat music) [BLANK_AUDIO]