Coffee House Shots
Who might replace Simon Case as Cabinet Secretary?
The Spectator magazine is home to wonderful writing, insightful analysis and unrivaled books and arts reviews. Subscribe today for just £12 and receive a 12-week subscription in print and online, along with the £3, £20 John Lewis or Waitrose voucher. Go to spectator.co.uk/voucher Hello and welcome to a special Saturday edition of Coffee House Shots, uncles and I joined by Henry Newman, former adviser to Michael Gove and Boris Johnson and the editor of Whitehall Watch on Substack. Henry thanks for joining today, we are going to look at the expected departure of Simon Case, the circumstances and then what might come next. As opposed it's been quite clear for some time, I think probably for two main reasons that Simon Case was not going to hang around for a long time as cabinet secretary if kissed on one. Firstly, because we know that he has had a leave of absence on health grants, it was why his Covid appearance was delayed and he has been back but I think since then there has been a sense that he would perhaps change to a less stressful job than being the most senior civil servant in the country but then also, I think even if that hadn't happened, the fact that there is much talk and some evidence that Sue Gray and Simon Case were not a natural fit, Sue Gray of course, a former senior civil servant who was now kissed, I'm his chief of staff and I think missed career opportunities for Sue Gray at the hands potentially of Simon Case, meant that Sue Gray would perhaps not be warm towards him but also given her knowledge of Whitehall to want her own people. So do you think those are the main factors and what are we missing before we go on? I think that's right, I think it's almost, well it's now sort of been widely rumoured and knocked down by the cabinet officer, the cabinet office in trying to deny the story that Simon Case would be leaving relatively shortly, I think that sort of by the end of the year was used. I think sort of a few months ago before the election he was telling friends that he'd ideally like to stay till the middle of next year which would mark a sort of five year point which would be a kind of elegant place to leave in line with the fixed terms of permanent secretaries which my former boss Francis Maud introduced. Case is obviously something of a controversial agreement, he hadn't served at the top level of Whitehall when he was appointed by Boris Johnson in the middle of the pandemic and then he also was dragged into various bits of controversy including by his very critical WhatsApp messages being released in the course of the Covid inquiry when he was rude about all kinds of people, including the man who was then his ultimate boss Boris Johnson and I think that's made his position very difficult but he has clung on and has also suffered from sadly some health problems but I think it's though likely that he does leave on pretty soon as you say and this is a kind of completely key, it's a completely key appointment so I wrote a kind of peaceful the Whitehall project setting out some of the different possibilities of those people who might come after him it's hard to know and I think you'll write that Soo Gray will be a very important voice around the new Prime Minister Keir Starber but we don't know whether she is the voice that he's going to listen to there may be others and there's certainly signs emerging that there are different factions within Downing Street, Morgan McSweeney has let it be known that he does not report him to Soo Gray as the kind of pure politic side of Downing Street and he's also brought in as I understand it more than a dozen people into his political office who also report to him so he's establishing something about set for a power base and there'll be those in Downing Street and potentially in the wider labor movement who wouldn't want Soo Gray to have necessarily her man or her woman running the top of government and just on that Henry I mean you've worked in 10 Downing Street and I think you worked there when you had Dan Rosenfield as a Chief of Staff at time but actually also when you had Dominic Cummings as Chief of Staff and the two quite different versions of Chief of Staff Dominic Cummings being very political in his own way and then Dan Rosenfield was a former civil servant who came on and took on the roles do you think it works to have almost say the Morgan McSweeney in charge of politics Soo Gray in charge of government running of government that type of thing because clearly they must cross over a fair bit when you're making decisions Well I think that's right I didn't work actually directing Downing Street under Dominic Cummings but I did I was a special advisor in the cabinet office which is sort of part of the wider there's a you know connecting door it's in the same building I think I think that every number 10 is dysfunctional in its own way and that's have always I'm sure it's always been in the case so I've certainly worked in some very dysfunctional governments a lot on the inside but I think it's sort of Have you got the most dysfunctional or is that for the next podcast I think this is hold on hold on that one for now I think you're the point you're fundamentally raking is right though I think it's a real challenge to have two different sources of authority inside Downing Street but it's not just the fact that they have several reporting lines it's the fact that somebody wanted that to be known publicly because they clearly think that it matters and certainly there are kind of people who are in and around the labor movement too when I see to them say that they're worried about the influence of Soo Gray and I don't think that she gets politics other people would obviously defend her but I think it's it's setting up cover of the future I wouldn't say it's a all-out war or anything like that so I don't want to be restated but they clearly are some cracks now when it comes to the appointing Simon Case's successor we understand there'll be a full process as you would expect and can you talk us through some of the runners and riders because I think the front runner or the one who at least has managed to win the most win the most newspaper column inches is Ollie Robbins who of course is former civil servant famed from the Brexit negotiations and then you also have Antonio Ramirez name come up I think it was interesting of both of those candidates which it might be why journalists are putting two and two together or it could be us coming from this as they're both seen to have good relations with Soo Gray yeah I think I think probably uh that that's fair they certainly work with former colleagues I don't know how close either of them were I'm not so they have a particular insight into Soo Gray's social life I'm afraid um but I think I think both of them would be kind of quite classic appointments in the sense that they are experienced senior officials this is not somebody coming in purely for outside obviously Ollie Robbins has recently worked outside government in the investment bank and then more recently at sort of in business but they would be kind of they would be a reversion to a sort of classic white tool um Antonio ran the uh the secretariat in the cabinet office the economic and domestic team that are basically in charge of coordinating policy and cabinet and she's you know highly regarded she's obviously been in charge of the Ministry of Justice where not everything's been going brilliantly recently but I think it might be perfectly possible for people to turn around and say hmm I think it's uh that's that's more of a political problem I mean I think Antonio may be one of the only candidates for cabinet secretary to have attended a spectator summer party um and she's not a sort of a friend normally endorse but um it's obviously one to bear in mind I think I think she's about I don't think she's in the back but I don't think she's in the slightest bit political with a big peak I think she's she's I've never detected any political partiality but I think she's sort of unafraid of mixing with the political layer and working closely with ministers and obviously Ollie Robbins had a long career in the treasury he was appointed principal private secretary by Tony Blair highly respected by him he was yeah he got on well with Theresa May with David Cameron as well but I think he obviously came to some degree of notoriety over the Brexit process I think if you talk to some people who were kind of Brexit ministers at the time the secretary of state perhaps had a difficult relationship with him but I would also admit perhaps in a quieter moment that Theresa May was the the person they were ultimately frustrated with rather than the official and I think everyone would agree that he's ferociously clever and very hard working so but both of them would be quite a quite a classic white tool appointment and perhaps reassuring for the system and who are the other names we should look out for I think there's there's a few other possibilities I mean if you were going for somebody who's within the existing kind of cadre of permanent secretaries the obvious senior choice other than Antonio is Sarah Healy who ran the who runs the housing ministry she's also been the head of the culture department she's sort of highly respected very smart kind of very Hammonds on and generally sort of liked by her colleagues other they also liked by ministers and then another option would be to go for somebody who has been a senior civil servant and now it's slightly outside Melanie Dawes is perhaps an obvious person there Melanie is now chief executive of OFCOME to sort of a big regulatory job and you actually sometimes get to hear her interviewed on the on the radio so it's a sort of it's an interesting insight into how her and secretary handles cross-examination you should perhaps get her on women with wars before she gets snapped up into into white all again but I think she's she would be sort of a again a solid choice very no-lonson very smart kind of treasury background quite a kind of classic option I think all all four would be interesting I think it's the fact that there are three senior women in the running is also of remark there's never been a female cabinet secretary or head of the home civil service I think the other thing I sort of talked about in my sub-stack was the fact that all four of these people are part of a kind of new generation that was pushed forward by the former capsec Sir Jeremy Haywood and they're now kind of at the fore of Whitehall which is interesting now of course it's possible that there's a different name there are certainly other people around Chris Wormald and Health Department Gerald Poplington it's energy security tomorrow Finklestein Defra you could go for somebody who'd left longer ago Summa Chakravarti who went off to run a big development bank Sharon White who obviously left the treasury to run John Lewis for a while or Tom Stoller who was featured out the treasury by Liz Truss I mean they're all I think they're all possible but I think it's interesting that none of the names being discussed is a kind of top businessman everyone's thinking of somebody with a kind of classic white tool background and just finally if the era of Simon Case is coming to an end what do you think that will mean for changing in terms of how Whitehall operates because obviously Simon Case was quite a young cabinet secretary when he was picked it was seen as a it was seen as quite a bold appointment Yes I mean I think one of my former colleagues once observed that Simon Case was more interested in the politics than some of the special advisors he was working with he was sort of fascinated by the who's up who's down in the kind of court as well just by the kind of big people I don't think he's politically powerful but he was just interested in politics that's perhaps unusual that civil servants I I think I think what we would expect you know I worked the cabinet secretary worked places with was Jeremy Hayward I was a then a junior special advisor in the cabin office and he would but even sort of ring up quite junior people including me at the time and kind of chastises us about something not going quite right or or just ask us a series of quite detailed and probing questions which was both slightly terrifying to get that cool flash up when you're on what was then my blackberry and this kind of while ago or was but it was also quite empowering and it kind of I think he was he was very impressive and would kind of grip a problem I don't think people would say that about Simon in quite the same way so be interested if we see somebody who's a bit more hands-on and ultimately the cabinet secretary job at the moment and has been for the last few years is combined with the head of the home civil service so they both provide the senior policy advice to the PM and the cabinet and the run process of the cabinet but they're also in charge of nearly half a million civil servants and the vast majority of civil servants are not policy wonks sitting in white tool they're prison staff or probation officers or they're working in the orders or in job centers and it's quite a sort of difficult role because you've got to bridge those two sides some people have suggested they should be split others are much more against that and think that it would only lead to sort of further eternal rivalry but I think I mean a change is coming in white at all and I think we can expect it relatively soon thank you henry and thank you for listening you