The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my Patrons at patreon.com/jalatiLOL. There you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You'll also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jalatiLOL, that's G-E-L-A-T-I-LOL. Good evening everybody, it's currently about 10-5 pm eastern on Monday, July 22nd. I had a down day today, -1.63 units, we'll talk that over here right now. Two matches in the LPL, first one, RNG vs Rare Adam. RNG had a decent start in this first game, but made just some incredibly stupid mistakes that cascaded on one another and... Yeah, I'm one of these guys that I've gone to bat for I-Wandie, but he has not been that good this season and he was pretty terrible in this first game. The last two deaths weren't necessarily his fault, looked like miscommunications with his team, but he had a moment in this game at this first... They were battling for the Soul Point, like the Soul Dragon, and I actually think RNG could have had Hextech Soul and that would have made a difference in this game, obviously. But that's why I thought they were in a pretty good position to win this one, I thought they were probably like 60-40 to win this, even though they didn't have a huge gold lead or anything. So he had a moment in this where they were going for the Soul Point, RNG had kind of like, R-A had kind of like poked them out and scared them away and kind of split them, and he just was like "Nope, fuckin' send it" and he just went in and his whole team ran away and clearly looked like some kind of miscommunication, maybe it wasn't his fault, but it certainly looked like his fault. The other two were definitely not his fault, like they were like at the end, but either way he had kind of a really rough first game here, not that it's easy to play Leon and to the setup, the rare Adam had, but still game two is one of my traffic rare Adam shit stomped them. Yeah, the XPY experiment didn't quite work out here, but you know, we'll see. We took some RNG, I was fine, the price was right, is what it is. Thunder Talk vs. EDG, this is one of those times where the map specific bets got me. Offside won all three maps in this game, which is very, very rare in the LPL, it's only happened like one other time this summer. The offside team won all three maps, which is wild. It does not happen very often, and that's part of the risk you take on when you're doing map bets. It's still included, that volatility and variance is still included in the edge you have, and it still showed a bigger edge to play it that way, so I played it map to map. Turns out, map to map loss, but series one, this was kind of a weird one. It was weird. In a lot of ways, this was right on script, I had the right handicap here, neither of these teams really blow out huge leads, and that was the case in all three of these games. The only difference was, I kind of thought that, I mean, both these teams are actually pretty good at stabilizing after first Baron, but that part of it was not the case in this series. It was, you know, first Baron fight or first Baron ended up winning the game pretty decisively on the spot over the next few minutes in all three of these games, and that was it. So, yeah, another underdog win in the lower conference, dogs are just apparently unstoppable. I actually think they're above 50%. No, I'd have to pull that. I'll pull that up and look tomorrow. Actually, I didn't enter this into my line history sheet just yet, but let me take a look here. I didn't separate the line history stuff by leagues, so I'd have to really dive deep on these, but I'll take a look at it tomorrow. Then we had Fnatic versus G2. This was an absolute slobber knock over series. This was a great series. Super entertaining, some high level stuff, some, you know, bar room brawl level stuff like we always get to see from these two teams. A lot of really cool draft adaptations. This was an awesome series. I would highly recommend, if you didn't watch this series live, I would highly recommend watching this one. It was super entertaining, very bloody, a lot of action. It was nonstop. The pace of the game was furious. Got some really, really fast paced games that still ended up going long just because these two teams are so well matched against each other. Not to be a negative Nancy, but leave it to me. This is probably the first time in three years that I haven't bet a Fnatic Money line against G2. Of course, this is the time that they actually get across the finish line. Fnatic get the monkey off their back and actually get the win here. God, that's got to feel good for them. It's been so long since they've beaten G2 in a best-of series. You know, I'm not going to sit here and complain because I still hit four out of the six bets we played. We played the kill spreads and tower total overs, which got home. Both got home in maps two and three. Almost got home in map one also. But yeah, this was just a tremendously entertaining series and I still won money on it, so I shouldn't really complain. But go figure the one time I don't play the Money line and winped out is the one time that Fnatic actually did get across the finish line. Anyway, this is a really, really entertaining series. Highly recommend checking it out if you didn't watch it live. This is worth a rewatch. It was really, really fun. It up down 1.623 units on the day because of that weird debacle in the Thunder Talk EDG match, but you know, that's okay. I'm going to be doing a separate podcast for and a Patreon post update for the LEC matches on Tuesday morning because I thought I had time to get to it today and I had a couple things come up and I just ran out of time to do it and I have to get to work. So I'm going to be recording that when I get home tonight, probably around three or four o'clock. Same deal as I did last night and I'll probably have a separate podcast for that. It'll be a short podcast, but you know, it's just the way it has to go. First up, week four, day two, LPL. We have Weibo gaming plus three, twelve on the Monday line. Whew, plus one and a half mass at minus one twelve, minus one and a half is that plus seven, eighty two. It gets Billy Billy gaming minus four, fifty one on the Monday line, the minus one and a half mass at minus one fifteen, the plus one and a half is that minus eighteen, fifty eight, not that anyone is betting that. Game line is for both these teams. The full season or the full summer season model actually made this pretty close to market. In fact, the full season model made this very close. It was plus four thirty six minus five forty one using just the group sample, meaning like after placement stage since we've gone into these two upper and lower conferences. It actually made Weibo plus one sixty eight Billy Billy minus one ninety two, so significantly shorter than the market price here. So we have to reconcile that. Let's see what we can do. Other model flags play besides that kill total overs as a moderate strong play. We'll talk about that in a little bit here. On the Patreon post, I actually posted the tale of the tape for the full summer sample as well as the just the upper group sample. If you look at the upper group sample, Weibo have been legitimately pretty good. Inconsistent series to series, but their underlying numbers are legitimately good. And, you know, there are a seventeen hundred plus agnostic goal per minute. They don't have a massive goal differential agnostic goal differential per minute, but it's still positive thirty four, which is strong. They have significant lead in the same percentage of games as Billy Billy. They have the same, you know, a similar percentage of games with a lead at twenty minutes as Billy Billy is similar closing rate. Similar, you know, they only have, I think, one other game with a significant deficit. So, I mean, for all intents and purposes, if you look at just the summer split, these two teams are pretty evenly matched. My only concern is the inconsistency Weibo have shown against the good teams. They too owe JDG. That was like their coming out party. They too owed anyone's legend. They lost in a competitive match to LNG one to two, and top esports kind of shit stomped them. Neither of those games were particularly close. I don't really trust Weibo, but you're getting a good enough price here, even against a world class elite team in Billy Billy gaming that I think you probably, this is like Dogger Pass. And I think it's probably worth taking a stab at Billy Billy gaming, or a stab at Weibo rather, just because, I mean, they've shown you enough, this roster has so much potential, and they're kind of beginning to realize that now. This is, I mean, my concern is that top and Billy Billy have been so much better than everybody, and JDG to some extent as well, but, and we've seen mixed results against them. This is the third of those three top completely wallop them. And my concern is that, you know, Billy Billy's early game, as potent as it can be, is just going to, you know, blow these games open, but you're getting a huge price Weibo also have side choice in this series, which is a huge advantage. I think this is Dogger Pass. Like, I wouldn't play Billy Billy at this price, not with how good, how much better Weibo's looked right now. If you want to pass on this, I understand. If you want to play the plus one and a half maps, I understand as a proxy for this, but I'm going to play map one Weibo plus eight and a half kills at one, it's 117 for one unit. Eight and a half kills a huge spread to cover. You know, Billy Billy's average margin of victory is actually bigger than that, but Weibo's average margin of defeat is much smaller than that. So I think, and then if you just look at, like, generally, like the most recent week or so, we've been seeing a lot more of these, like, closer, uglier, like, you know, 12 to 10 kind of games. I like a big kill spread in that case. I don't usually like big kill spreads in games that are projecting to go over. The model did suggest kill total overs. And if you look at this upper bracket, there's been a lot more action, a lot more combined kills per minute than the lower bracket, despite having shorter game time. So it's, you know, kind of makes sense when you look at the pace of the games. I played Weibo plus eight and a half kills minus 117 for one unit and I sprinkled the Weibo series money line at plus 312 for 0.1 units because they do have side choice in this. And, you know, I think there's a good enough chance that they steal, you know, they just win this two to one, win maps two or one and three, and that's that. I don't know, it's, I just think this is a huge price for a team that's shown a lot of promise against good competition out of nowhere. It's like they were saying back in the whole placement stage. But anyway, more on that at a different time. Second match tomorrow in the LPL. Thank God, by the way, that we get to upper group games and we don't have to watch this shit bottom group for a day. That's going to be a breath of fresh air. Top east voice minus 729 on the money line. I just want to have heaps of minus 154 against ninjas and pajamas plus 449 on the money line plus when he has a plus 119 Lee, minus when he has a plus 1,079. Same lineups for these two. Both models made top e sports about a minus 900 favorite to an IP being a plus 660 favorite or in that ballpark anyway. Both models, the full summer sample as well as the just group sample, both projected more or less the same thing. The just groups data set, flag kill total overs, time total over 31 and all neutral objectives over as very, very strong plays, the full summer model tagged just over 12 and a half towers is a light play and nothing else. So interesting dichotomy between the just group sample and not being more like in the derivatives than the actual market side price here. Times like this in the past is exactly where I'd back NIP. They have the hands and they team fight well enough and I kind of like them as a big dog. I just hate them as a big favor because they're macros dog shit, but they have not really shown much of anything this summer. As a matter of fact, they've just been getting their shit kicked in by pretty much everybody in this local conference. The fact that the model made this close to market is rather telling in the market. As a matter of fact, it shows value on top of these words, very small value. But anyway, let's I'm not going to play the side in this. It's a prohibitive price top do have side choice. So like I don't fault you for taking the sweep here. I think that's fine. But I think the derivatives are where we want to chop this up a little bit. So kill projections, my model projected 30.825 kills in this game. These two teams are, like I said, this upper conference is averaging about a little over 29 kills combined kills per game, 0.88 combined kills per minute. Both these teams are right around that average. But both of them have been playing slightly longer games, which makes this a total that projects over enough. So I mean, we're getting, you know, the mid price for the total is 27.5 kills minus 120, basically. So you can get plus 102 over 28.5. So that's the kind of threshold you're looking at here. As I said, like this upper bracket's been going over in general. My only concern with backing it over here is the top e-sports completely dominate NIP and that these are shorter games, like two lopsided for a kill total over to get there. But NIP have been getting their shit kicked in by pretty much everybody and they've still been getting over kills. So they're kind of, they got a little bit of Furex or 100 Thieves to them. They're just kind of like sprinting it, which makes sense for this team. This team is not a good macro team. They're just a fight you team and try to hands diff you all the time. And that's kind of NIP's game. It's always been their game even when they were winning. So I think you kind of have to accept that. I'm going to play a kill total over. I'm going to take it in map two when an IPF side choice that they can be a little bit more competitive, hopefully. So I played map two over 28.5 kills plus 102 for one unit. As far as the other neutral goes, other neutrals go. The biggest percentage edge was on the over 12.5 towers at plus 131, followed by the overtime total over 31 minutes at minus 114. And then the over four and a half dragons and over one and a half barons were next after that. Towers tends to be a bit more volatile just to note though. Top have gone over that number in 77.8% of their games in the supper group. NIP have only gone over 45% of their games though. So big delta there. Don't like that one nearly as much because NIP have kind of been steamrolled a little bit. What I do like though is the time total over. Mean game time in the supper group is 33.06 minutes. The meeting game time is 32.42. Top are averaging 38.58 for the season, 36.16 in wins. NIP are averaging 32.87 minutes and 32.49 kills and losses. I think this should probably be set at 32, juiced over or 32.5, split or slightly juiced under. 31 is a very cheap price, especially at even money. So I played map one over 31 minutes at minus 114 for one unit. That's going to be it for me. Like I said, I'll be back later tonight. I ran out of time. So I'll be doing in the LEC as a separate podcast later on tonight. And it'll probably be a short one, but I'll do a Patreon post and an update as well as a podcast later on tonight. Figure that'll be at around four o'clock in the morning. Best of luck and I will see you then.
