The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my Patrons at patreon.com/jalatiLOL. There, you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You'll also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jalatiLOL, that's G-E-L-A-T-I-L-O-L. Good evening, everybody. It's currently about 2.40 AM Eastern on Sunday, July 21st, 2024. Coming to you live after the first game of KT Furex. Furex had a shot in this one, but didn't quite get there. Quick recap of the LCS from this evening. We have Flyquest Immortals, the first game in this series. Really, both these games kind of had the same exact trajectory where it was kind of close to the first, like, like, 15 to 20 minutes. Nobody really ballooned any kind of big lead. But then, like, once it turned, Flyquest kind of, like, put their hand on, you know, their foot on the gas, and it was just over. Not really much to say. Got the kill spread home in the first game. It was only an 11-10 win. Second game was not really particularly, you know, close once it turned, and we didn't get the kill spread home. Liquid vs Dignitas. Dignitas win. Dignitas lose the first map. It was pretty much one-way traffic. We barely, just barely missed covering this kill spread. They lost by 9. They had +8.5. Got hooked there. Second game, they won outright. So, we had a chance going into map 3. And in map 3, I actually, you know, it was pretty even through the first 20 minutes. And I actually liked the Dignitas set up quite a bit. They had the Zillion Kindred. And Zillion actually helps champions, like, Renekton, quite a bit. And Liquid had, like, their patented, you know, wombo combo fight with, you know, zigs and Ornn, and they had Renekton Ultimate to kind of help follow up on things. But, really, what ended up just happening. I mean, honestly, Dignitas just got sloppy. Like, Liquid continue. I know, like, listen, I know I sound like a little bit of a hater here. And I know I'm clearly very biased against this team. And I acknowledge that and understand that. So, you know, take this with a grain of salt. But, like, Liquid. So, they have a great early game script. When the early game script doesn't go well for them, they don't look all that special to me. But it feels like every time the early games don't go well for them, it's like every single time that happens, their opponents just so happen to, like, bungle it somehow. Like, Liquid are not the same team when they don't have a massive lead in the game. But they're very good at getting those massive leads, right? But it seems like every single time that they do, that they don't get a massive lead in the game is pretty even. It's, like, unforced errors from their opponents that fuck it up. It's really, really frustrating. I'm still... I'm going to talk about Cloud9 in a second, but, like... This team... Like, the underlying suggests that this team isn't good. My eye test doesn't match that. Like, I think they're good. I just don't know if they're as great. Like, they're just going to be priced as, like, minus 1,000 favorites every fucking match for the rest of the season. And I think that's wrong. And, like, they're going to win most of these, and I'm okay with that. All we're going to need to do is hit 1 or 2 of these, and we're going to, like, it'll be fine. But it's going to be frustrating as shit's seeing it happen over and over and over again, where, like, Liquid aren't doing anything, but everybody in this league sucks so bad that they're just going to get away with murder. And teams, Dignisos had 2 weeks to prepare for this. Or 3 weeks to prepare for this. Even more, maybe. I like the idea with the Zalien Kendra. They at least came out with something. But teams are still letting Liquid play what's comfortable for them. For the love of Christ, can somebody, can somebody please make this team do something different? Please. I'm fucking begging anybody, literally anybody. And here's what's, here's what bothers me. I think there's, like, the only time you see this, especially if it's domestically, domestically, you're seeing teams, like, the LCS has now seen a whole year of that, almost, like, you know, 6 months of this. They know what's going on here. They scrim against this team. They play stage games against this team. It should speak volumes to you that even the LCS teams domestically are still letting this team do what they want in draft. They're letting APA have all this stuff. They're doing all this other shit. That other says one of two things. One, it says that they're kicking the shit out of them in scrims. And they're not afraid of him on comfort picks. Or it could be the opposite. And maybe he's busted out a bunch of shit in scrims that is not what we've seen on stage from him. And they don't think it's worth forcing him to that because he's done good enough on the stuff in scrims that they don't think it's worth the win equity of, like, switching up his draft and all ending on stopping him. Maybe it's the latter. And I'm just really, really biased against this team for whatever reason. But they are going to have a coming back down to Earth moment. They're just going to be extremely overpriced for the rest of the season. And it fucking sucks that everybody in this league just isn't that good. But all you can really hope for is that we keep getting good prices on them because it's common. The turn's going to come at some point with this team. Their underlying numbers are not that good. And their underlying numbers are not that good even though they are a good early game team. My models tend to favor good early game teams, but you look at like agnostic economy for this team. A whole bunch of other shit. Like they're not that good, but they keep winning. So I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong, but, and maybe it's just that they have the LCS's number and nobody in this league is going to get them or that they're just a weird enough team that they get there. They're smart. They make good decisions. Like they don't do anything really particularly stupid or anything like that, which is just enough in this league most of the time, but I'm begging somebody to like make this team do something different. Like just make them beat you with something else for the love of God. Just fucking somebody do it, please. Anyway, I don't think it's us had a shot in this game three. They had a shot to win this series outright, but didn't get there. At least we got one of the kill spreads from them. We ended up down. What was it? I think we ended up basically down 0.42 units in the LCS today just because we split the kill spreads, lost the vig on both and then didn't hit either the money line. So not a big deal. Took our shots. I think we probably should have got one of these other kill spreads home and ended up up a unit or up a half unit, but it's okay. All right. Looking into, I don't really have much to say about a Mortal Shopify. Like I said, it was pretty one way traffic. Looking at the LCS for LEC and LCS for Sunday, we have LEC playoffs. This is pretty much it for most of these teams. If I'm not mistaken, two of these teams are going home. The losers are going home and they are done for the year tomorrow. If I'm not mistaken on this format, I could be, I just forget. So we have two kind of interesting matches, two relatively close matches here. We have, first of all, team heretics minus 133 on the money line, minus one to have maps to plus two seventeen plus one to have some minus four hundred against giant X plus one ten on the money line plus one to have some minus two seventy three and minus one to have as a plus three oh two heretics are going to have a side selection for this one model made this more or less a pick them, minus one to seven, minus one of the three heretics have the neighbor and value. They have more experienced players on their team. They also have side choice in the series, but if you look at recent form, I do think giant X have been ever so slightly better in summer overall. Not by much. These two teams are basically the same. I think this is a pretty, pretty fair price. I think this is close to a pick them and then you give a slight bump to heretics for side choice and that's the end of this discussion. I really don't have much else to say on this one. These two teams have been, you know, giant X, there were very, very low expectations for this team, but they, they, I actually think giant X have kind of over achieved expectations. One thought this team was going to be awful and they've been okay. Uh, heretics have drastically underperformed most like, I guess like common, you know, casual fans, uh, understanding of this team. The betting public actually was pretty, pretty, the betting market and people in the betting scene were pretty quick to adjust the fact that this team just didn't have it this year. One of these teams going home, I, I don't really have a strong opinion on this game. I think the price is right. All the derivatives looks pretty close to me. Um, I kind of wanted to play some like overs because like this is kitchen sink level shit. And these teams have had all the time to prepare for it, but like at the same time, sometimes we have all that extra time to prepare. Somebody comes in cold or somebody has an incredible game plan and the other one doesn't and it's a lot and it's lopsided. Um, I really, I might end up coming back and playing kill total overs in this one, but those were priced pretty appropriately. Um, model actually had a very, very light edge on unders in this one. But I think, um, kitchen sink game situational spot, like it's probably going to go over if anything, but I don't have a strong enough read on this game on this matchup. I don't think there's a specific thing qualitatively or strategic, the exes and those thing that I think either team has a specific advantage with, um, both these teams absolutely suck early game. They both don't jump out to leads on teams. They still have a 100% closing rate for the summer, which is incredible. Giant X have only one a third of the games they've had a lead in, but they've only had a lead and a handful of games. So it's, uh, there's really not much to say with these two. They're both pretty bad. They're probably going to get their shit kicked in by whoever they play next. So, um, no action in this one for me. Not even any derivatives. The derivative is mostly looks pretty sharp to me too. I would lean toward like neutral overs and kill total overs, but I didn't play anything in this one. The second match tomorrow, made lions coy, minus 125 on the money line, minus one half maps of plus two 28 plus one has minus three 74 against carmine court, plus 103 on the money line, uh, the plus one has minus two 90 and the minus one half is that plus two 86 interesting uh, pricing here as well. I, these two teams, carmine corp have been just a colossal disappointment for the entire year. Mad lions gave us like a lot to be optimistic about and then have just utterly collapsed this summer. They've been a purely dog shit team. They were pretty good in the final week of the regular season. They kind of got off the snide a little bit. They looked a little bit better. This is still a team with a lot of issues struggling. Um, I don't buy carmine corp, carmine corp are going to have side choice for this series to give them a bump. My model made this minus 151 for made lions, uh, I kind of, I kind of lean that way, like just because we've seen something from them, carmine corp, I haven't seen shit from. Like even in the games they've won, it's, it hasn't really been their own creation either. So like, I don't know, man, I, I, I leaned to mad lions here, but I don't have the stomach to back this team. They've just been such choke artist and they're not going to have side choice for this match. If they end up taking, I don't know, if they end up, if they end up winning map one, maybe I'll come back and play them to win the series because I think they'll, they'll have a good chance to do that. But I don't know, we'll see one thing I do like in this one, it's going to be my only play in the LAC slate tomorrow, uh, is the over one and a half barons at plus one 16 for one unit in this one. Uh, I'm playing this Baron over the model suggested it. First of all, just based on frequency with these two teams, uh, they go over this clip at a two thirds mark for made lions and a 72.7% mark for carmine corp and we're getting plus one 16 on it, which is unbelievable. I really should like double stake this, but it's really hard to get a lot of money down on these, on these props. So, um, single unit stake for me, I think there's also just a matter of like, again, the same dynamic we had in the last series where sometimes we have a long layoff. One team comes in rusty or one team has a really good game plan. It's really lopsided and the other team has to adjust. Um, but I kind of think that there's going to be a lot of nerves with these two teams. They're both relatively young rosters and, um, I don't know, lean med lions, but I only played the Baron over in this one. The Baron over has been nails in Europe, by the way, uh, you know, hitting it for the league wide is hitting at a very, very high clip. So, um, kind of going against the general trend that we've seen on this patch where, you know, the, the teams are really hesitating in those early barons, but we'll see how it goes here. I think these could be a long drawn out games going to the LCS week for a day two cloud nine minus four 34 on the money line, minus one and a half set, minus 108 against 100 thieves plus three 25 on the money line, plus one and a half set, minus one 12, minus one and a half, plus eight 71 model made this minus three 36 plus two 95, um, so slightly shorter than market. Uh, I, so I like this cloud nine team. The reason I like this cloud nine team is that they're underlying numbers suggest that they're much better than what we've actually seen from them. That said, they've bungled a few games this season, uh, it's tough to really parse out the fact that like liquid have just been better than them. So far, but I think by the end of the season, cloud nine are going to be the best team in the LCS. I think they might be the best team already, and they just don't have the results to back that up quite yet. Um, that said, again, the same dynamic applies as we've had in Europe. There's a long layoff between, uh, weeks here. And I think cloud nine is good as they've, you know, they, they've had some shaky games and, you know, hundred thieves have looked, you know, at least a little bit better this season. I still think cloud nine have a way, way better advantage and like part of why I'm so bearish on liquid is like looking at cloud nines underlines and being like, holy shit, they're so much better than liquid and fly quest. And they just need to work on like realizing those actual foundations. Sometimes it takes a little while to do that. So anyway, I'm not making this a liquid hate fest, although I kind of am, I guess, uh, I don't know. This is still the LCS and I'm not sure how much you can trust any of these teams is huge favorites like this, especially in a best of three. I would lean to the hundred thieves side of this if you forced me to choose a side, but I'm not playing it. I, I still think cloud nine are going to just keep getting better and better and better. And you know, this could look like a comically cheap price, but I also understand this is the LCS. None of these teams are like world class elite teams and less liquid are and I'm just a fucking moron, I don't know, but, uh, yeah, I'm staying away from this one. No plays. Um, I did talk the Patreon post. I posted the kill projections in this one because it's an interesting case study, kind of like the W E OMG match from this morning where you have the favorite is a dead nut under team. They tend to steamroll and win too fast. They've extremely low combined kills per minute, et cetera. And the underdog is a, an extremely high combined kills per minute team. Um, hundred thieves have been over darlings all season long, almost all of their games go over. So this is kind of a clash of, clash of styles here. Um, 25 and a half is extremely, extremely low for a hundred thieves game. So I could see the case for backing all tovers, but I also think there's a reasonable chance that you get one way traffic cloud nine wins in both these games. One other note, I do think the dynamic that we've seen across the globe where teams are doing a better job defending first parent and not letting teams have it for free could end up nerfing cloud nine. They are one of, they are more of an early game team, not that they can't play late game, but they are more of an early game reliance snowballing team. So that could have an adverse effect on them. It's possible. It's kind of a nerf to them more than it is to liquid and fly quest. So, um, keep that in mind. Still think this is a cloud nine or pair or this is hundred thieves or pass. I'm just passing on this. Uh, if you think hundred thieves are chippy, I'd rather play like the kill total overs or just take a extra exposure to them in DFS rather than just betting the, uh, all tovers or something. And at least energy minus four fifty, what's energy is minus four fifty? What the fuck is this? Minus four fifty on the money line, minus one to hit mass at minus one thirteen shop fire bellings that are pwned plus three thirty five on the money line, plus one to have a minus one to seven, minus one to have is a plus nine twenty one model made this minus two fourteen plus one ninety two model makes shop fire belling the worst team with margin. Um, uh, not, not with that much margin against immortals. Um, I know they've looked like shit. But again, long lay off helps underdogs more than helps favorites and energy are not good. Energy do not deserve to be laying this kind of number to fucking anybody. I don't care if Shopify is the worst team in the four majors. Energy do not need, they don't deserve to be laying this kind of price to anyone. They're not good. You need to treat this matchup exactly like we're treating the bottom conference in the LPL. None of these teams are good enough to be a minus four fifty favorite. None of them. There's no way in hell that energy or eighty one percent to win this game. Not a fucking chance. There's no chance in hell. So I, I am all over Shopfire billion. Uh, the model loved kill total overs as well. Uh, they're kind of a correlated thing. Uh, it's like the, the kill total overs in this specific match ups, it's in this specific match up. It's highly correlated to Shopify winning. So like, I'm not going to bother. I think the side is a better choice if you prefer the kill total overs. I think that's fine too. Um, I played Shopfire billion plus one and a half massive, minus one of seven for one unit. And then I'm taking a shot on the money line, the minus one and a half maps as well. Just, you know, variants in your favor coming off the long layoff here. I also played Shopify money line plus three thirty five for point three units and Shop five, minus one and a half maps of plus one nine, twenty one for point one units. Kelly staking would have this as a massive, massive stake. I don't like to massive, massive stake with dog shit teams, but I don't think energy of that good. I think energy are pretty much just as bad as Shopify and immortals and the market is for whatever reason, just as way too much price memory of the previous iterations of this from like 2023. This energy team is not good. They were good. They had a good run last year, but this team is not good and they've done nothing but get worse over the course of the 2024 season. So there is absolutely no chance in hell. They should be laying this kind of price to anybody. That's it. That's the end of the show. you all tomorrow with the Monday LAC and LPL slate, and until then, good luck.
