The League of Legends Betting Podcast
Sunday, July 21st, 2024 Part One - LPL, LCK
Recorded on: Saturday, July 20th 5:30pm Eastern
Recap 0:26
LPL Slate 10:16
LCK Slate 17:12
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The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my Patrons at patreon.com/jalatiLOL. There you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You'll also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jalatiLOL, that's G-E-L-A-T-I-LOL. Good evening everybody, it's currently about 5.15 p.m. Eastern on Saturday, July 20th. We're in the middle of the LCS lead currently. I'll be talking about the LEC and LCS for Sunday on a show later on tonight, as I'll be also updating the Patreon post with that as well. Anybody that tuned into the Swett Along stream this morning are really Friday night as well. Thanks for tuning in. I am just an idiot and forgot to update on the Patreon until after we were two games into the stream. But anyway, follow me over on Twitch, set the notifications and you'll know whenever I go live with those. So we had a pretty good day. Our one and a half stake on JDG lost unfortunately, but we won everything else besides that this morning, so we ended up with +2.58 units on the day. JDG Billy Billy, I guess we'll open up with the loss here. JDG really, really tried to throw this game one really hard. They eventually recovered and got across the finish line to win game one, which made me feel pretty good about this money line position, but the next two were one-way traffic for BLG. So kind of a bummer after that start. I still think that position was very strong. It just didn't work out. Team WE against OMG, we know at WER, they don't balloon their gold leads very, very well. They're very clean, usually in the mid and late game. But the problem with that, and I talked extensively about this on stream, is that if you're not expanding gold leads and you're not creating proactive advantages in engineering your own advantages on the map, you're just kind of waiting for mistakes. You can kind of run into this problem where you just let teams hang around, and when you let teams hang around and they have either better team fighting than you or a better mid or late game draft than you, then you're kind of a victim to that. They got punished for that in this match. OMG had some outstanding team fights in this series. It's like the one thing that they do well, at least since Tansan and Angel have been back. I thought this draft in map one with the Rengar was... I thought they had... They were gonna have a really, really hard time. Like, WE drafted an incredible... It looked like they bated out the Rengar pick and drafted an incredible team against it, so like hard punish him. But WE just took too many like sloppy 2v2 and 3v3 fights across the map and ended up just losing off of those. They ended up getting buried with a gold lead. The second game, just some excellent team fights. They did a really good job marking the cannon. Always had an exhaust, seemingly always had an exhaust for him. Always sniffed out the flank. Always forced him to a decision to kind of just pull the trigger on a bad ultimate, and they almost always had flashes up, so they never really got that big huge cannon flank. I think they got one in like the early game, like Seaging Mid. But like the last 2 fights that OMG won, they forced a bad cannon ult out of Wayward and that won them the game. He basically got nobody with the cannon ult in the dragon pit. They ended up winning that fight. Got nobody in the final fight where they were Seaging and that was the game. OMG, I don't think this team is good. I don't think this is like doom and gloom for we either, but like they're good at one thing. OMG is good at one thing and if you're good at anything, it turns out you just go forward now in this division. So I don't know. I don't necessarily think OMG or a good team or anything, but dogs continue to dominate the lower conference. Top e-sports, LGD. LGD looked like they were going to get game too. They had an unbelievably good start in this match and just bongled. I think they had like a 4000 gold lead at one point. Yeah game 1 was very much like the most LGD game that you know you can conjure up. This team so consistently gets themselves down like 1500 to 3000 gold or so like early in the game and then just stabilizes and then somehow makes the game a coin flip. But they just rarely ever get out to good leads so like LGD or unbelievably predictable. But I just don't think they're very, they're going to be a good betting team because you know like the game script is so consistent with them and you know exactly what's going to happen that you can pick and choose your spots on like kill spreads with them and it's going to be, they're going to be an easy team to bet because their game script is pretty much the same every single game. So yeah, high chow is really, really good. Every time I watch this team, it's just, man, I wish this guy would get on a better team. But LGD are okay. They're unfortunately just not as good as everybody else in this division besides maybe FPX. They might be better than, and they're probably better than NIP, too. LG get the 2.0 in that match, crazy. LGD, top B sports end up getting the 2.0 because they came back in the second game in this match and yeah, I thought this was going to go to a game three, but it didn't. T1 Hanwa over in the LCK, man oh man. T1 tried a really, really early game comp in the first game with the Renekton Nidalee combo, which I think is extraordinarily strong on this patch, but they went to do the top lane gank and Doran sniffed it out and it did not work and it ended up being a tremendous failure where they didn't get the kill and gave over first blood. And they had five dash champions against Talia, so this game was just only going to get more difficult from there and they got a bad start in it and you know, it's whatever. The thing you have to recognize when you play these early game comps, I like the idea of going hard to the paint either all in early game or all in late game against Hanwa life because Hanwa life aren't proactive, they're just not a proactive team. So if they're just going to see the early game or give you something and try to minimize losses, you can take advantage of that by trying to run them over or you can take advantage of the fact that they're not going to be proactive and just go over the top and scale over top of them. So I like the idea here of going underneath and I thought this draft was fine from T1 game one, but it didn't work out because they just didn't execute well. Game two, the draft made a lot less sense. They still put really high priority on Nidalee, which I think is fine against Hanwa. But they ended up, Hanwa ended up taking the Renekton away and then T1 looked completely lost as to like what they're going to set the Nidalee up with and they ultimately didn't draft anything to set the Nidalee up. They had like the gin in the bottom lane that they could have potentially, but like that was it. They didn't have a great way to set up a CC for a spear and they basically, they fucked owner over in this draft really, really hard. They were like, "Okay, well here's the Nidalee. We don't think they're going to take Renekton. Oh shit, they took Renekton. Now what?" And they looked completely lost in draft and Tom's got some explaining to do for that one. That was not a good draft by him. I think Hanwa picked up the two, this was pretty decisive, T1 played really poorly today more than Hanwa played particularly well. But T1 are maybe kind of in a slump here. It's been really like three or four weeks now. I think maybe the schedule's catching up to them. I'm not trying to make excuses for them or anything like that, but I think it's pretty clear and obvious that they're just not in good form right now. We kind of saw a similar thing over the last two summers. I've talked a lot about that, how the doldrums of summer can get to this team sometimes and maybe we're in the middle of that again. We'll see. Genji D+, man oh man, this was a torturous loss for D+. They had nearly a perfect game and a 20 to nothing shit stomping in game one. That's the third such game this season where they've completely manhandled Genji. The second game, they were man-handling Genji again and they ended up, Genji found a miraculously good fight out of nowhere like around the fourth dragon forced D+ to a decision where they had to kind of decide okay do we just get out of this and give them a second infernal and a third drake or do we try to fight this? So they tried to fight the 3v3 in the aftermath of the initial fight ended up losing the 3v3, losing the dragon and then losing the Baron and that was a huge, huge gold swing and momentum swing in the game and Genji ended up choking them out. Third game in this match was super close to and Genji would just better. It's unbelievable like Genji made like D+ made like two mistakes in this entire series and lost two games because of it is tragic. They just can't seem to get there against Genji like they they're the only team that has challenged Genji. It's crazy like they've now played 16 games against each other. This year Genji have only covered the kill spread in two of those games. They failed to cover the kill spread in all three of these games. The second game we got home miraculously I can't believe they didn't they didn't send it. They just kind of like they preserved the KDA's for for old Jollotti's map to kill spread, but D+ played this team close. D+ are the only team that have truly blown open games against Genji consistently. If they can just piece it together they're so close and this D+ team the ceiling on them is so high and they're so exciting that like it's it's tragic that we don't that we just haven't been able to see them get over the finish line against Genji, but this was an incredibly impressive performance. They almost won both they should have two owed this match and it would have been back to back off side wins because Genji had side choice on the first two maps in this series. I'll talk about LEC and LCS on the show later on I guess just LCS, but I'm going to do an LEC and LCS show later tonight I'll be recapping the LCS on that show, so let's get into this Sunday's late in the East P.L. Summer. We only have two matches in the LPL tomorrow keep that in mind. Week three day seventeen W.E. minus two ninety four on the money line. Might want to have maps of plus one fourteen plus one eight as a minus one thousand sixty three against ultra prime plus two seventeen money line plus one eight as a minus one forty seven minus one in half is that plus five seventy seven same lineups for these two team W.E. or on a back to back they played this morning I'll just keep that in mind full season model made this minus one fifty five plus one thirty seven for W.E. the just the group stage version made this minus one forty five to plus one twenty seven for team W.E. So both models well well short of the implied odds in this one models making this roughly aggregated make this of you know sixty forty which you know we've talked about with team W.E. makes this a sixty forty the market odds are implying almost a seventy five percent win chance for team W.E. so I think you we know the deal I think W.E. are probably better than what we've been seeing but like even W.E. who's likely the best team in this group maybe maybe they're not anymore I don't know but even if you consider team W.E. the best team in this division and by the way by the way I have I've been having some issues with the data on this like this is not including their lost OMG this morning so really this is probably going to be even closer than the current price here like the stuff I just read off to you is not including this morning I've been having some issues getting the data for that but I might update this later so really this is probably going to be even closer than that but let's for the sake of argument say like you know model makes the sixty forty market prices seventy five twenty five there's no way no way I think W.E. do have side choice I hate this ultra prime team I think they're dog shit but like I think you just have to hold your nose and take a piece of ultra prime you this price is way out of line it's way out of line I'm going to play I'm going to play a kind of a weird split stake here I'm going to play ultra prime map two plus seven and a half kills at minus one nineteen for one unit and then I'm going to play point two units on the series money line at plus two thirty I got I hate this this ultra prime team but I'm going to try to take advantage of them winning map two when they have side choice I'm also going to play the over on dragons map one over four and a half dragons at minus one eleven for one unit the reason I'm doing that is because almost sixty five percent of games in this lower conference have gone to a fifth dragon W.E. have only done so in thirty five percent of their games but ultra prime have done so in almost ninety percent of theirs so yeah I think you know macro trend sixty some odd percent W.E. have not been having explosive early games of late like the last couple matches so maybe teams have figured something out about them games are kind of dragging on a lot longer also none of these bottom conference teams are particularly good at ending games so they get a lot of these games are ended up stalling out so I played the over four and a half dragons at minus one eleven for one unit as well in this one next match lng sports minus three eighty seven on the money line on us when I had massive minus one of three plus one a half is a minus fourteen twenty two against fun plus phoenix plus two seventy five on the line plus one a half is a minus one twenty five minus one a half is plus six eighty three same lineups for these two model made lng minus two sixty two favorite in this one using the full sample and a bigger favorite of nearly minus three hundred in the just group stage filtered version of it. Model does slightly like fpx sides think this is a little bit overpriced for lng even though they've looked really really good qualitatively really like the the read lng kind of have a different a slightly different read on the metagame than seemingly everyone else does they've been willing to try out some really bizarre stuff they were the first team to really like put a lot of priority on the kenen we've seen rise top from zika it's an old old special of his as a counter to the kenen because other teams are responding to it it seems like they they like sajwani a lot more than other teams do right now not that people aren't playing sajwani but they seem to like sajwani more than the ap junglers ever so slightly so that's kind of an interesting wrinkle it's not it's not like a wild this isn't a knuckle ball but they have like this weird slightly off kilter read on this metagame they really seem to like sajjone a lot but I don't know allergy are in good form right now they're playing excellent league of legends this is a team that tends to scale up of the course of the season we saw this last year with them we saw it in spring season this year with them and we're seeing it again here I think I don't know if I'm willing to call them elite yet but I think they're kind of firmly settling into that like you know next with like anyone's legend where they're like kind of best of the rest and maybe way about god that hurts to say I think this serious price like qualitatively if you just look at how these two teams have been playing recently like fpx have been struggling I think fpx might be slightly worse than their numbers and they've had a lot of trouble closing games out as well they have just a 56% closing rate with elite at 20 even though they've had a lot of big leads at 20 so a little bit of a case of the throws from fpx here I think this price like I'm not going to overpay for lng I think this price is pretty close one thing I will say the filtered model looking at just the group stage so like fpx and lng just against good teams lng have been well under the average in combined kills per minute and game fpx have been well above the average in those games so fpx are an insanely bloody team they're averaging more than a kill combined kill per minute in both the upper group filtered sample and the full season sample league average by the way is like 0.8 so it's like this is a big big difference here not to earth's 0.85 combined kills per minute by the way so that's a big big over over achievement on the combined kills per minute for fpx I'm gonna the thing is lng tend to be like a lower scoring more methodical team and that's by design for them they're well under I'm gonna play the kill total over and ult over on map two the models flagged all this is like you know lit up like a fucking Christmas tree when I put this in there and man I don't know if I like it enough to play it on both maps because I think lng could just like wire to wire stomp and control the game but fpx are fighty as all hell man like they're averaging almost they're above 34 combined kills per game it's been at that's for the entire summer season it's completely bananas to me and I think I'll say I'll take a shot on the ult over when they're when they have side choice I played over 27.5 kills plus 109 for one unit on map two that's gonna be it for the LPL LCK week five day five we had bnk fear x plus three 26 on the money line plus one and a half set minus one of two minus one and a half set plus 825 against kt rollster minus four 36 on the money line minus one and a half set minus 119 model made this plus 263 minus 298 so shorter than the market price here by decent amount model flagged under four and a half dragons as strong kill total over is as moderate and under one half parents as moderate as well as a slightly into the fpx side or not fpx fear x side sorry kt have side choice this time around they completely you know whooped fear x the second game of their first series the first game was was back and forth could have gone either way this is interesting kt have been playing about as well over this recent stretch in terms of consistency that they have over the entire 2024 season even though their ceiling games haven't necessarily been there like they haven't had like those crazy like spike performances that we saw a lot from spring kt rollster um they are far from perfect they are not a methodical or super disciplined team but they are getting the job done against this weaker competition you know ever since the esports world cup before the sports world cup they reverse swept T1 in the the homestadium for T1 if anyone remembers that and then since the esports world cup they've gone to oh against noxion to oh against fear x and to oh against drx so and really over that six game sample they really only trailed in one game and it was like basically negligible it was like zero so um they've been doing pretty well of late that said i do not trust this team i will never trust this team with this lineup um they've picked up first blood in seven games in a row and they've really only blown open a significant lead in two of those games against weaker competition and it won uh admittedly one of them was against fear x but this whole thing feels like a bit of a house of cards to me uh like to me it's like i don't want to say it's a matter of time before i guess i am kind of saying it's a matter of time before they turn back into themselves but like kt are getting good starts in these games against bad teams and they're still not like consistently blowing open games against them so it makes me wonder like what are they gonna look like when they don't have a good start in games and i'm just i have a lot of questions about about that because we haven't seen them have to face really any kind of adversity in the list you know couple matches uh i guess they kind of did against t1 but like even in those games they got good starts in those games i just question what happens if they don't get first blood if they don't have a good start in the game they don't even though they're getting first blood they're not ballooning these gold leads out it's bizarre and like it look if you look at like they're opening like eight minutes opening ten minutes like they're they have strong sequences and they just you know peter out over the next ten minutes it's bizarre um so i'm you know i'm still on team fade kt is big favorites and back them as big dogs maybe not as much back in them as big dogs this season but i'm still on fade in them as big favorites i know that hasn't worked out the last few matches but i just question like what's going to happen if they don't have good leads and like they don't have a good start in these games like what if they if they don't have a good opening ten minutes what does this team look like because if they're having a good opening sequence and not ballooning games open i don't know what they're going to look like if they don't have a good opening sequence it's bizarre so i don't trust them i don't trust kt roster i think fier x you know fier x on the other hand they they got the win over t1 uh earlier this week i think it was thursday thursday morning they beat t1 two to one the two games they won against t1 absolutely whooped their ass wasn't even remotely close um the thing is though like over the course of the summer fier x is a bit of pretty terrible early game teams so i'm not sure they're the ones that are going to stop this kt good start in games trend that's happening i don't trust kt it's possible fier x are turning things around if you forced me to play something in this game on the side i would play fier x and hold my nose uh probably i would play fier x map two because kt are going to have choice for this one but um man oh man like you know what i'm kind of talking myself into playing fier x map two uh i'll think about an update now patreon patreon subscribers i'm going to give it a give it an old thing but patreon subscribers take a look at that and i might update and play something later for map two um i am going to play the under four and hit dragons though um the reason i'm doing this is you know if kt gets off to the good start that they've been getting off to i feel like this might be one way traffic if fier x jump out on kt kt have generally had lower game times and losses they kind of get steam roll when they lose so um yeah and these two only go to a fifth dragon in thirty eight percent and forty percent of their games respectively and we're getting an implied fifty two point eight percent on the under so i'm going to play um under four and a half dragons minus one twelve for one unit as well non-chim red four is minus one twenty five on the money line minus one head maps at plus two thirty two plus one eight is a minus three sixty five against dr x plus one oh three on the money line plus one a half minus two ninety five minus one a half is a plus two eighty model made dr x a slight favorite in this one so i'd have the wrong team favored that said this is pretty close to a pickum um i would think that these two teams are pretty close to a pickum in general uh dr x are going to have side choice for this so the underdog is going to have side choice that kind of kicks into things a little bit i think i like the dr x i think the non-chim play like have the best players in this game in jiwu and um sylvie oh i think rascal's pretty good too but like i think dear i think non-chim have the two best players in this match i think these two teams have both had issues i think dr x have maybe looked ever so slightly better as a team um but neither of these teams have had a significant gold lead at 20 minutes this entire summer season neither of these teams lead at 20 minutes very often at all and both of these teams have a bad habit of losing a hate like taking a haymaker punch in the mid 20s and usually losing the game off of a mid-game fight or a barren setup or something like that so it's weird they have they don't have leads very often they're typically getting steamroll but even in their games against the other weak teams what ends up happening a lot of time is they just make a big critical mistake and get knocked out more or less so they're not ever going to scorecards in games they're going they're just getting knocked out most of the time and it's usually in the mid-game even if it's not early so and that's even against the weaker competition too so you know that's why the models flagging like under like neutral unders in this like barons towers etc because you know usually these teams the ones they get hit they're done i'm tempted to take the unders on this but i i kind of have a feeling that this is going to turn into a slog of a series because neither of these teams have been able to blow open games against a lot of people so i think there's a chance this is these kind of turn into like really boring like 35 to 40 minute you know whoever wins the last fight wins the game kind of games those could go over those could go under they could turn into clown fiestos who knows um i would lean toward the unders but i'm kind of worried that these games turn into that kind of thing where they're just staring at each other for 20 minutes um no action for me in this contest slightly into drx i guess if you force me to take it aside but um that's it for me i'm gonna be doing the lcs and the lac on a later show everyone have a good night and i will see you then
