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The League of Legends Betting Podcast

Saturday, July 20th Part One - LPL and LCK

The League of Legends Betting Podcast  Saturday, July 20th Part One - LPL and LCK Recorded on: Friday, July 19th at 630pm Eastern   Recap 0:26LPL Slate 9:26LCK Slate 22:35 You can find more, exclusive content to go along with this show on My Patreon. My Twitter/X is @GelatiLOL P&L Sheet for 2024 can be found here and pinned to the top of my Twitter.

Duration:
36m
Broadcast on:
19 Jul 2024
Audio Format:
mp3

The League of Legends Betting Podcast 

Saturday, July 20th Part One - LPL and LCK

Recorded on: Friday, July 19th at 630pm Eastern

 

Recap 0:26
LPL Slate 9:26
LCK Slate 22:35

You can find more, exclusive content to go along with this show on My Patreon.

My Twitter/X is @GelatiLOL

P&L Sheet for 2024 can be found here and pinned to the top of my Twitter.

The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my Patrons at patreon.com/jilladellol. There, you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jilladell. That's G-E-L-A-T-I-L-O-L. Good evening, everybody. It's currently about 6.30 p.m. Eastern on Friday, July 19th. I'm getting a little bit of a late start here because I spent an extra hour or so this afternoon really coming over a couple of ideas, macro ideas I had for splitting up the two LPL groups into basically separate leagues and trading them as such. I had some findings, nothing too miraculous like I kind of thought, but I'll touch on that a little bit later. Let's quick review the games we saw this morning. We had, this wasn't yet another absolutely ridiculous slate of games, not just for DFS, for betting, for just entertainment purposes. These were... All five matches this morning were absolute clown fiestas in their different ways. We'll start off with perhaps the least exciting of the two or of the five. Also, by the way, anybody that tuned into the co-stream, I kind of just like last minute decided I had a lot of energy after work and I was like, "Yeah, you know what, let's do a sweat-along stream." We watched like three and a half series. A couple people came and hung out. Definitely appreciate everybody that tuned in. I'll try to give some notice on those, but to be honest with you guys, a lot of it just depends on my energy level and what's going on that night. I might actually do another one tonight. Follow me. It's at twitch.tv/jilladeelol. Turn your notifications on and you'll get a notification when I go live if I end up doing that. Maybe we'll do that again tonight. It could be a lot of fun. We'll see. Anyway, recap. NIP, JDG, JDG, get the 2.0. NIP had a chance in this first game, I think. They had a shot. They were up a little bit, but it wasn't enough to really blow anything out. JDG are just such a good mid and late game team. NIP are kind of the opposite. I didn't really think that they were ever going to have a chance to actually win that game, but the second game was one-way traffic. JDG pretty much stomped them. LGD Phone Plus Phoenix. Good God, what a weird-ass series. Through the first two games in this series, both teams had 40 kills already, which is insane. This first game was like a panic attack. LGD should have absolutely steamrolled this first game. They were up like 4K at 15 minutes through it and then had to battle all the way back. Really, really tried to lose that game, but they probably should have won it decisively to begin with. The second game, they did kind of the same thing. It was looking like one-way traffic. It looked like a pretty much unlusable game. The only caveat in the second game was that both the Phone Plus carries got fed, had a lot of kills. All the gold was in the right places for them. Meteor got caught out a couple times and it kind of prolonged this game, and it let FPX get elder and they ended up winning this game, despite being, you know, for Drake sold and completely shinsed like shit-stops beforehand. And then game three was kind of the opposite. Phone Plus Phoenix blew up in almost a 5,000 gold lead in the first like 16 minutes of this game. And just like LGD in game one tried to find a way to lose this game and couldn't do it. Yeah, so this morning kind of, and I talked about it on stream, but I kind of got the idea to start looking into just big picture like how this barren difficulty change from this recent patch is actually affecting games. I don't think these games have just turned into complete clown fiesta solely because of that, but I do think it's playing a role, right? There's a lot of games where a team would normally get like a 21 or 22 minute barren, but it's easier to scare them off of it because it's more difficult to do. So you end up in a lot of games where like all of a sudden you need a truly ridiculous gold lead. Now, I think these games with these teams specifically, a lot of these teams have been struggling to close games anyway, so I don't solely want to put it on this change, but it is going to amplify things. Like it's going to amplify that problem if there's a team that has that problem, if that makes sense. So teams that struggle to close games are going to have an even more difficult time now than they used to, so we need to keep that in mind moving forward. The other LPL match, Invictus Gaming, pick up the pretty decisive 2-0 here against EDG. EDG, like the first game was pretty close, but I actually liked IG's composition a whole lot more personally. Just thought like, I mean, they had the right people fed is really what it was. I liked the zigs in this spot as well. EDG did have scaling, they could have won this game late, but IG just played better. Second game, I thought EDG were off to a pretty good start, but IG had this incredible play in bot lane. It was like EDG were off to a good start. IG had this incredible bait play where they baited JJ's Vi into an ult, flashed back into the team as a teleport flank from Ushinomi was happening, and they ended up just full on pincering EDG to get back into this game. EDG were up moderate amount at this point in the game when this happened. It was the ultimate bait, and the cool thing about it was that it was actually intentional. You could see how the players were moving and how it was set up when the teleport happened. It was absolutely intentional how it happened. They baited JJ into this Vi ult, they baited EDG into this fight, and they pincered them with a Fed Gwen and Akais Adive. On play this brilliantly, you should know me play this. Really, it was the best individual play I think that I've seen from Invictus Gaming, maybe in the entire year of 2024, and they just blew the game open after that. Took full control and ended up winning this game. Pretty cool win, so we cast Invictus Moneyline +151, which was a nice hit. Moving over to the LCK. Our KT roll servers DRX. I love the DRX draft in both these games, but KT just outplayed them pretty handily in the first game. The second game, it looked like DRX were off to a good start and they just couldn't hold serve. Just too many mistakes. KT made a couple really, really good picks in the mid game. Leona Alting, Mininar, and kind of forcing the issue with DRX. KT's comp was a lot more easy to execute. In the second game, in particular, DEFT got fed with the tools that DRX had. DRX had a good frontline, good engage, but they didn't have a reliable way to CC Ezreal. If you don't have a reliable way to CC Ezreal, the Kice Counterpick matters a lot less because it's less likely that he's ever going to get plasma applied to get the ultimate and all that stuff. DRX, I like their drafts. They looked a little bit feisty today, but they just couldn't get it done. The other LCK match was Qoongdong Freaks versus Okbro. It was, in fact, Broday. Qoongdong kind of threw this first game. They probably should have won this. It wasn't like they were 90% to win it, but they were probably like 65-35 and ended up hunting it. Second game was... The kill score was close, but it was not really a particularly close game, and Qoongdong got there. Third game was one way traffic for Breon. I gotta say, this new Breon identity of actually having some moxie, some hutzpah, some balls, actually taking the fight to teams, there's still moments. There was a moment in this second game where they really hesitated on Baron even though they had a 3v5 and I was like, "What are you guys doing? Pull the trigger, man, come on." There's still moments, but it's good to see them trying to be decisive and actually trying to make plays instead of just rolling over and dying. It's been a breath of fresh air. I think Breon are going to be chippy underdogs. We'll probably be able to get nice kill spread prices on them, but they get off the snide, pick up their win here. Happy for the bros, it was Broday. We ended up cashing that plus one and a half maps, and we ended up plus 2.69 units on two and on our bets. A couple nice winning days here in a row. We've got to do a lot more of those in a row to get back here, but there's a lot of season left, so we're just going to keep grinding. One bit of housekeeping here. I'm going to be doing a separate podcast and then updating the Patreon post later on after I go work out and then get some dinner. I'll be doing the LCS in a separate post later in the same post, but with an update and as a separate podcast later on tonight. Alright, let's get into this Saturday slate. First of all, this is an incredible, incredible slate of games. This might be the best scheduled day of games that we're going to get all summer. This is going to be an awesome, awesome day of League of Legends. Hopefully we get some winning bets home too, but this is going to be an awesome day of League of Legends to watch. We have three or four marquee matchups, and we have one that's kind of interesting despite it not being as highly real a match as you'd think. Let's jump into the LPL first. If you have anybody that you think is new or only casually into League of Legends, they should watch this slate. This is going to be an absolute banger day. Get them involved in the DFS slate, all that stuff. This is going to be a really, really fun one. It's the other reason why I might end up coaching me again tonight. I'll let you all know if I do. Let's get into this LPL slate here. I'm going to talk a lot about how I split these models up a little bit, and I'll talk more at a later date about some of the macro trends I did find. It wasn't as clear and decisive as I thought it was going to be, but I'm going to mention the split prices. What I mean by split prices is I'm basically treating the lower and upper conferences as separate leagues, and I move them into separate models with different data sets and all that. It's a really small sample, and usually my models take a little bit, like really a lot bigger of a sample to really, really start getting in tune, but I just like to go through the exercise of like the snapshot and seeing what it looks like. Some stuff was confirmed, some stuff is not good. It's not spitting out super accurate prices, but it's good to get the snapshot regardless. Team WE minus 211 on the money line, minus 1/2 minus 1/2 minus 1/2 plus 1/50, plus 1/2 is at minus 672 against OMG plus 161 on the money line, plus 1/2 minus 1/95, minus 1/2 is at plus 426. We're at Jan Schang, Fofo, Abel, and Mark for WE, and OMG, you're running the same line up. They've been doing a little better with here with Harry Tanzen, Angel Starry, and PP God. If you use the full summer sample, my models make this minus 241 plus 208. If you use just the groups sample, meaning like just since we've gone into the two different conferences here, model makes this a pick them. So, here's the catch with this, right? I don't want to completely throw out the pre-group stage games, because it really makes the sample relatively small and a lot more volatile. But I think looking at it from both perspectives here tells a pretty interesting tale. I also think you have to remember our big picture thesis here that's been the July of year broken record thing of the summer so far, which is everybody in this bottom conference sucks everybody. Now, you could make a case that WE are like the only team that doesn't suck in this bottom conference, and I would be okay with that. They don't have the best record. They are coming off of a 2-0 loss of thunder talk, but I think they still have the best numbers. They look pretty good qualitatively. Actually, they don't have the best numbers via the model, but they're very close. I test-wise, I do think WE is the best team in this lower conference, but even though they're the best team, I don't think they're more than 60% against anybody. Minus 211 is what a 68% implied win right here. I know OMG aren't good, but they've been a lot better with this iteration of the lineup. I think you just have to hold your nose and play OMG here or find some way to do that. If you're going to play a side, I think this has to be OMG. The difference here is I'm going to play map 2, because that's the map that OMG are going to have side choice on, and I think there's a bigger edge there than on the series money line for them, because they are off-sides you have to remember. I think this is a big enough price that you can still play OMG series money line, and if that's the only option you have, I think that's totally fine. Keep in mind it's a lot harder to get a money line home in an off-side situation, especially with these weaker teams. I do want to give some respect to WE, but I just think this match should be -150, maybe -175, something like that. It shouldn't be -211, it's a bridge too far. Just my preferred way to play that is the map 2 OMG money line just from map 2. I'm not playing kill total, any kind of kill total position here, but OMG, so the deal is WE are super low scoring winners. They control games wire to wire. It's almost like old school LCK teams where it's just controlled wire to wire. They don't take unnecessary fights, and they just kind of grind you to death. OMG are the opposite. OMG are fighting is all hell. They will drag you into the mud with them. They have over a 0.92, combined kills per minute. League average is 0.79 in this lower conference. A lot of bloodier with OMG. I think if you're going to play OMG and DFS, the leverage play there is to just play them. They're probably going to be a big scoring team if they win this match. If you want some leverage there, I think that's kind of interesting. I'm also going to play - it's weird. I want exposure to both these teams on the maps that they have choice in, so I played OMG on the money line in map 2. I'm going to play the under 1.5 barons in map 1. It got flagged by the model, so I kind of looked into it. If you look across this entire Nirvana conference and it still fucking triggers me, they call it Nirvana. It's anything but that. It's a living hell. But 54% of the games are going under 1.5 barons, and specifically with T&W and OMG, they're both only going to a second baron in 16.7% and 25% of their games respectively. We're getting a 59.5% implied chance on the under here. It's like a 14% edge, something like that. Give or take some percentage for variance and volatility. I'm going to play overall place for this match. Map 2 OMG money line plus 140 for one unit and map 1 under 1.5 maps at -147 for one unit. Second match and perhaps the least interesting of the five tomorrow. Top e-sports minus 1633 on the money line. Minus one and a half mass of minus 252 against LGD gaming plus 741 on the money line. Plus one and a half plus 190. Minus one and a half is that plus 1606. Same lineups for both these two. LGD are playing Kepler again. LGD are coming off of a back-to-back. You need to keep that in mind. We have another match coming up later. JDG will be coming off of a back-to-back as well. Don't think that ultimately changes all that much, but it's noteworthy that Kepler is getting the start again. Kepler is pretty good today in that match. I think LGD probably should have won 2-0, but top e-sports are a noticeable step up in class compared to FPX, so we need to keep that in mind as well. Model had no plays flagged in this one. If you use the full sample, like the full summer sample, nothing was flagged as a play. Everything is pretty much dead on market if you look at these two teams for the full summer sample. If you use just the upper conference sample, it made top e-sports a much shorter favorite, about -400 or so, like 80% implied, which would suggest a play on LGD and a play on LGD to be competitive in this match, and all the correlated plays that go with that. That said, I think given the small sample here and given stylistically how these two teams play, I don't think this is a good match-up for LGD. LGD this morning actually had two pretty decent early games, relative to LGD. That's something that they've struggled mightily with in the 2024 summer split so far. They've only had a lead at 20 minutes and 30% of their games, but they had a couple this morning, which was good, and they've only had a handful, maybe two or three significant leads at 20 minutes this entire season so far, and unfortunately for them, top e-sports are still an elite early game team despite picking up a few losses in the last week or two. They have a lead at 20 minutes and 70% of their games. They have a significant lead to 20 minutes and 45% of their games, which is insane. And, again, LGD is significant deficit at 20 and almost 40% of their games. So, like, this is not the formula. LGD tend to, you know, get down by like, you know, 2,500, 3,000 gold and then kind of stabilize for a while and hope to win late game. That's kind of their game plan. You can't do that against teams that are really, they have a really good closing rate. Like, top e-sports have a 93% closing rate. So, you can't do that against them. They have an explosive early game, so the lead is likely to be even bigger than LGD's normally used to. This is a really, really bad matchup for LGD and top e-sports have side choice. I think I didn't end up playing anything in this. If you think top e-sports, if you think LGD are going to be chippy in this series, I think my favorite way to play it is the over four and a half dragons or the plus nine and a half kills on map two when they have side choice. If you like the top are going to shit stomp this angle. I think like tower total unders and all the neutral unders and stuff like that are kind of prohibitively priced for map one, so I wouldn't play anything. But if you think LGD are going to be more chippy than I do, then I would play map two over four and a half dragons or plus nine and a half kills. But I ultimately had no plays in this match. Next up is my favorite position tomorrow. Well, I guess second favorite because I have another one that I like quite a bit tomorrow. JDG gaming. That's like ATM machine, right? No JD gaming plus one sixty one on the money line plus one and a half mass at minus one ninety seven minus one and half is that plus four twenty eight against billy billy gaming minus two eleven on the money line minus one eight mass plus one fifty one plus one has that minus six seventy four. Sheer getting the start for JDG. That's the only thing of note here. If you use the full summer projection, it actually makes JDG a short favorite minus one sixteen to plus one oh two. If you use just the group stage makes JDG minus one seventeen billy billy plus one oh three wrong team favored in both iterations of the model here makes this pretty close to a pick them. Here's the thing. The last time we saw these two teams billy billy were minus one ninety one favorites. That was back in week four the spring split and then we got and then JDG never beat them like all of last year and all of twenty twenty three. It was slightly different rosters but similar. Never really got that proverbial monkey off their back right. Minus two eleven is a price extreme for the year of twenty twenty four. It's only the second time these two have squared off. But what reason is there to believe that billy billy are like you know sixty eight percent to win this series. Based on what you've seen recently. You know like JDG have actually looked really really good. Like they're they they have been steadily trending like they're steadily trending up. JDG stock has been steadily trending up. It's an upward trend over the course of twenty twenty four. The one issue that they had for the early part of the season was that their early game was not very good. Guess what in you know the last three months it's been incredible billy billy. Still an elite team still one of the best teams in the world but they've kind of had a couple hiccups of late. Maybe the grueling schedules finally getting to them. JDG had that extra downtime so maybe this isn't quite. Maybe that's kind of why we're seeing this. But from what you've seen this summer how these teams are performed against the other good teams. I have no reason to believe that either of these teams is significantly better than one another. I think they're both this is basically a coin flip match to me. I normally you know I've been talking a lot about this. But I'm going to upstake here. I don't like I'm trying not to keep like I've had an issue upstaking against elite teams and just getting my ass handed to me this season. But I think it's okay in a situation where it's an elite team versus an elite team and I think JDG are an elite team. So I'm okay upstaking here. This is the first upstake position I've had and probably a week and a half or so. I'm going to play 1.5 units on the JDG money line at +161. I just think this is an incorrect price. This is not putting enough respect at all on JDG. JDG have side choice for this series as well. This price doesn't make sense to me based on what we've seen so far. This is this is an elo rating price and I think it's wrong. This should be close to a pick them. If you want to give Billy Billy respect and make them like you know -140 or something because they haven't gotten there. That's fine. -2, 11, 68 percent. There's no there's no chance in hell. Not a chance. You know JDG have a lead at 20 minutes and almost 70 percent of their games. Both these teams have super explosive early games. They can definitely just snowball game one another and JDG are going to have the edge on draft. This should be close to a pick them and it's not. I'm upstaking. I'm playing 1.5 units on JDG money line. If you prefer you can play map one but I'm playing the straight up series money line. Moving on to the LCK week 5 day 4. This is an awesome slate. This is maybe the best LCK slate of the summer or one of them. T1 - 113 on the money line -1.5 maps at +249. +1.5 has a -337 against Homolife esports -107 on the money line. +1.5 -319. -1.5 +261. Basically a pick them here. Very slight edge to T1 in the market. Model is obviously going to like Homolife esports. I anticipated that going into this and sure enough it made Homolife -156 favorite to T1's +141. Obviously Model thinks big edge on Homolife side, right? Here's the catch with this. It makes a lot of sense why this is the case. Three of the last four matches Homolife played have been against pretty soft teams. They played against Nongshim, Fiorexing. Kwangdong is not a soft team but they're not an elite team. And we know how Homolife does against not elite teams. And then T1 - they beat T1 last time out. They beat T1 two to one. So T1 in that same stretch lost to Hamwa. They barely got by Breon in their first match back from the esports world cup. And then on Thursday they lost to Fiorex and the two games they lost to Fiorex were not remotely close. So T1 are kind of in a little bit of a bad stretch of performance here. We kind of saw a similar thing the last two summers. I don't know if it's just like last summer it was because Faker had his wrist injury and they had to use an emergency sub-mid lane. But even before that we saw a similar thing the summer prior to that. And we're maybe seeing it again here. I don't know if this is just the grueling schedule finally catching up to these guys and Fatigue is setting in. Or if the coaches are kind of managing workload so to speak like they're not practicing as men. They're not doing as many scrims, they're not forcing as many hours on these players etc. Just to kind of like it's like kind of like it's like I said it's like a load management in the NBA where like you really want your star like you want your players ready to go for playoffs and in peak form when it matters. And ultimately like they don't maybe they don't think this matters all that much. And the other thing at play here is like you just have to consider that. Like this isn't the first time we've seen this and T1 almost always bounce back from it so you have to keep that in mind. So via the numbers, via recent performance everything we've seen in the last like two weeks or so everything points. Even T1 winning the esports World Cup they didn't even look good in that tournament until the finals. So every fiber of seemingly everyone everyone's being here is going to be all over HOMA. I think HOMA are going to get all the exposure in DFS. I think HOMA are probably going to get bet into the close here. I think if you want to back T1 you'll get a better number closer to match time tomorrow morning. Somebody is going to bet HOMA and probably pretty heavily if I had to guess. It's just because it just makes all the sense in the universe right. The thing is I just can't do it. I know HOMA got them last time. I know they got them at the end of the spring as well. I know they can beat T1 and they really really punish sloppy play and T1 have had some sloppy play of late. But I think a lot of it has been dread. Like you had the Breon series, I'm not trying to explain things away. But you had the Breon series where they were clearly out of sorts right. You had that was like the jet lag coming back from EWC on short notice etc right. Then you had the situ- like HOMA like they just played bad in that series and HOMA punish them. Which is you know you could reasonably expect to expect to happen in this one. The Furex one I thought was pretty draft gappy. Like I thought it was more just a draft issue than play issue. But like they had no fight at all on both the losses in that series. So here's the thing. Just because HOMA got them last time doesn't fundamentally change the thesis on HOMA. HOMA are still fundamentally the same team. They are a pure counter punching team. They tend to struggle with their other top of the table teams. T1 are the one team that HOMA has gotten of T1 and Genji. I guess they've gotten D+2 but anyway I digress. They still rely heavily on opponent error and if T1 play a clean match they can beat HOMA. No problem and that hasn't changed. We've seen this. Every time everyone counts T1 out they just bounce back. Whenever you think this team is finally down and out and not going to be able to pick themselves up off the mat. They drop a stunner on you. It's crazy. The other situation here is like I think this is like another situation like we saw yesterday where we're selling momentum. Like we're going anti-momentum right? Like you'd essentially be buying the high. Like this is the peak of what we've seen from HOMA 2024 and this is the absolute worst that we've seen from T1. So you're buying the high and selling the low at the same time which is like a double whammy. I don't typically like to do that. It's not exactly like that but it kind of is. The other thing is T1 have side choice this time around in this series. And a lot of the like the issue they have against Furex was like more of a draft issue. So if they kind of fix those things wouldn't surprise me to see T1 kind of get right. All the numbers say that you should play HOMA here but I just can't do it. Like you should bet HOMA. I can't do it. I don't have the stomach for it. Like I've just seen this movie too many times like T1 every single time you think T1 or down and out. They get themselves up off of the mat and they're like it would not shock me at all to see them come out and just like win this like win this match in like a combined you know under 60 minutes like 2-0 tomorrow. It would not shock me at all. But I think if you think that this is kind of like one of those like lols in the schedule for them and that they're just kind of coasting and whatever then by all means back HOMA to your heart's content because the price is right to do so. I personally can't stand backing this team unless it's like a nice plus money number against these elite teams to make it appetizing. I'm not playing it at even money though no way. I just I don't I don't have the stomach for it. The model says I should not doing it though. I do kind of want to play neutral unders in this. The last time these two played they were really long drawn out games. I think we had like seven five and five for the dragons in those games. Model flags under four and a half dragons because these teams tend to be lopsided one way or the other when they win. If you think T1 are going to get off the mat and win this match and in T1 fashion I love unders. If you don't then I'm just not going to play anything in this one. So a bit of a contrarian angle but I would play like neutral unders these two teams are both extremely good at snowballing games T1 especially. So and HOMA have not been particularly great from a deficit either. So if you can if you think T1 get off the mat and steam roll I actually like playing neutral objective unders in this one. Second match in the LCK Gen G minus 701 on the money line minus one and a half and minus 161. T plus Kia plus 485 on the money line plus one and a half maps at plus 133 minus one and a half is at plus 1097. I just realized I forgot to put the model price and flag plays for this in the patreon post I will get to that after I'm done reading here. I will read that live on the air for you right now though while I have it open one moment one moment please. Model makes Gen G minus 276 to D plus 246 so much much shorter than market price. The last time these two squared off Gen G were minus 565 out to minus 700 now. Gen G did not have D plus had side twists the last time out they will not this time around. So it's going to be a little bit hard for D plus to get home in this one. D plus have really really challenged Gen G every time they face them this year. They've they pushed them to three in three of the series that we've seen or in two the two regular season series. They pushed into five games in the playoff series they had in spring. The last series was a 2-0 win for Gen G but both games were very close and I would argue D plus were probably like 6535 to win that first game. Maybe 70-30 something like that. So D plus have played Gen G close every time. It's always a competitive match with these two. It's kind of interesting like as as insanely good as this Gen G team is and it's part of why I keep believing in D plus as like being a good team. Despite you know some of the warts that they do have part of the reason I believe in them is that they've really just really pushed Gen G and you just have to if you're ever going to win the LCK or try to and it's not easy to defeat this team and they have. They've had more success against Gen G than T1 or Hama Life have this year. So maybe it's a Kryptonite kind of thing but they ultimately haven't gotten across the finish line that many times. I'm going to play a kill spread here and I'm going to play it on both maps which is kind of dangerous. It's essentially a double stake because I'm playing plus 7.5 kills on map 1 at -104 for 1.04 and plus 7.5 at -103 for 1.03 on map 2. I'm playing both kill spreads here. The reason I'm doing that it's the same thing I played last time. I only played map one last time. In 2024 the 13 games these two teams have played against each other over the course of this calendar year. Gen G have only covered the kill spread twice in those 13 games. One of them was actually in the last series in the game one when I bet it coincidentally. The other was a 9 kill win that they had back in spring. Interestingly, that's just my preferred way to play this. I don't like playing D+ actually win this time because they are offside and actually winning this series is going to be an absolute mammoth undertaking. There is an edge on the market price there though, like a pretty big one. If you think that this is finally the time they get them, I mean Gen G got to be smelling themselves at this point. This is approaching all-time best level here. As a matter of fact, I actually wrote in the Patreon post, Gen G currently have the best agnostic goal per minute and the best agnostic goal differential per minute in history. They are not quite the best rated team of all-time in my models. They are getting really close to 2020, but 2020, just had such a leg up on the entire league that year. That's why they are rated higher. Gen G have more competition than that team had, but if you want to go just based on agnostic economy, we are looking at the best team of all-time. They are undefeated, they haven't dropped a map this summer. D+ almost got them the first time. They are going to be offside to win this series. If they are going to get the sweep, they are going to have to win two maps, at least one map offside. They are going to have to break serve here. I think they can do it, but I think I like the kill spreads more. Most of the time, the game script that we have seen with these two is that D+ jump out to a kill lead, but the gold is close, or they jump out to a kill lead, but Gen G have a gold advantage. Then, the games that D+ have mostly been one-way traffic. D+ have completely shit-stomped Gen G a couple of times, like in specific games. They have dominated in the games that they have won, but the games that they have almost gotten across the finish line have been very, very close games. That is why I kind of like the kill spread angle to this, more than upstaking against a potentially all-time best team on a side, because it is just so difficult to close games against this Gen G team. They are so methodical, so fundamentally sound. We might be looking at the best team of all time, folks, but I think D+ kind of have what it takes to beat them. I think they have a good shot to do so tomorrow, even though they are offside. I don't like them as much in this match as I did last week, but I like the kill spreads enough to play both kill spreads in this one, so those are the two things I played for this match. This is going to be an absolute banger of a slate. Make sure if you have people that are even casually interested in this and want to have a late night with the boys, have people watch this slate. This is going to be an incredible, probably like eight or nine hours of League of Legends we are going to get to watch. I am really looking forward to it. This is potentially the best slate of the whole year, until we get to worlds and stuff like that. This is probably the best slate we are going to get, schedule wise of the entire summer for absolute banger series. Hopefully everyone tunes in. I will be back later on tonight with an LCS podcast for Saturday night. Until then, best of luck, and don't forget to twitch.tv/jilladiallol. I might do a costume in this. I'm going to try to. Hopefully I will see you later on tonight. Peace!