The League of Legends Betting Podcast
Friday, July 19th, 2024 - LPL, LCK
Recorded on: Thursday, July 18th at 5pm Eastern
Recap 0:26
LPL Slate 4:33
LCK Slate 13:39
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Got our RNG underdog position home I guess we'll start with that match like this was just a classic example of yet another classic example of what I've been saying is like one there's almost always severe overreaction to roster swaps two none of these teams in this bottom conference are any good at all they all suck and you know really honestly like I thought the beginning of this first game I thought RNG had kind of turned the corner and they were in a really good position with their comp and they just kind of bungled it and lost second game I thought they were I thought the second game was like way more lopsided I thought they were way ahead and they threw it and then ultra prime threw it and then RNG threw it and then they threw it back and this ended up being like a 50 minute you know shit show circus of a you know circus sideshow really this was a mess of a game ugly ugly game but they did get across the finish line the second and then the third game RNG one after ultra prime were up like 6000 gold ultra prime threw all of the teams in this bottom conference absolutely suck everyone fucking blows like do not let yourself get convinced that any of these teams are any good like I don't know yeah case in point waybo get the two oh stoner against anyone's legend I thought a I'll probably should have won the second game in this series I liked their setup and everything but the first game was pretty much one way traffic for for waybo kind of a weird a weird blown lead for a all they haven't done a lot of that not that they had a massive lead I didn't think they were like 90% to win this game or anything but I thought they were in a really good position in game one and kind of just messed up waybo maybe maybe surging here LNG Billy Billy gaming LNG kind of controlled game one they had a really really big lead early couldn't really get anything done with it but did eventually get across the finish line they didn't really have any reason to rush this in particularly they were kind of in full control but they didn't really believe in their gold lead second game was also really really close kind of you know could have gone either direction but once it turned Billy Billy closed the door really fast it was almost I was like 13 to 2 I think it was and then third game was also really really close to the first 20 minutes analogy kind of got there yeah two dogs really all 300 dogs were on the LPL yesterday I totally didn't realize that triple dog day in the LPL that doesn't happen very often although it is happening much more often in this new format so kind of cool LCK Genji Nogshim this was as you'd expect one way traffic in both games we missed on our kill spread there T1 fear X fear X pick up the two one upset against T1 this first game in this match was like a complete shit stomping like they they were very this is the cleanest game these are this is like the cleanest set of games that I've seen from fear X in like forever like I don't know if the coach got the belt out or if these guys just like woke up and ate their Wheaties this morning I don't know what it was but like fear X fear X are like a solo Q team and when they win it's usually because they drag you into the back alley and they you know drag you into a bar fight that that's typically how they win today they won 13 to 2 and 8 to nothing in the two games that they won this like very very uncharacteristic of them and you know like it's and even in the game they lost they only had two kills so this is a very very out of character performance from fear X I don't know what to think of that I don't know if it was just a flooky one-off thing or if this is just going to be a new direction for them but a very very bizarre performance really really you know poor showing from T1 today but yeah definitely a very weird weird slate this morning I hope everyone had some fun watching that right moving on to our three match slate in the LPL and LCK there is no LEC until Sunday they're doing Sunday Monday Tuesday which is kind of weird but we will have LCS on Saturday so nothing on Friday night you know go out maybe touch some grass don't get fried like an egg is to bajillion degrees outside everywhere you know maybe go out do some other shit you know take the Friday off we don't have anything to sweat Friday afternoon or evening LPL week three day five Invictus gaming plus one fifty one on the money line plus one a half is a minus two a seven minus one a half is that plus four five against EDG and we're gaming minus one ninety six on the money line minus one and a half plus one fifty eight plus one has a minus six twenty six no lineup changes for either of these two model made this plus one thirty eight minus one fifty seven model like IG sides slightly but as you all know I sound like a broken record at this point we saw yet another example of it today nobody in this bottom conference should be more than what like take the most the most lopsided match up that you can come up with in this bottom conference is what like team we against like maybe RNG I don't get like even that match up shouldn't be more than like sixty forty right like excluding w e if you want to make if you want to give w e a bump for being the best team then fine that's that's whatever I think what you want of them but like they're probably your best team in this bottom conference everybody else should not be more than a sixty forty in the match ever and you know minus one ninety six sixty five percent implied you know sixty forty by the way like for those that don't know if you don't want to do like an odds conversion is like plus or minus one fifty so we're rated that number with Invictus here I'm going to play Invictus Invictus have side choice EDG this is kind of a weird one like this the main handicap here is that like I still just I'm I'm this is like the group macro handicap like nobody in this match should be like any like really more than like plus one you know plus or minus one one forty one fifty whatever you want to call it so I think anybody pretty much anybody in this bottom conference besides a dog against w e if anything's better than plus one forty probably just take it and most of them are probably a lot closer than that it's almost like a system bet EDG lead at twenty minutes and just one third of their games which is awful they only close with a lead in half of that one third of games and they haven't had a significant gold lead yet this summer and you know their agnostic economy isn't terrible but their agnostic differential isn't great either so they're not like creating advantages you know they're keeping games close and the fact the matter is if you're only leading in a third of games you're only closing half those games there's just no chance in hell you should be a sixty five percent favorite against anybody period so give me Invictus I played Invictus money I played the series money line at wild plus one fifty one for one unit I think you could maybe make a case to play like the plus one and a half maps or a sweep or something here or maybe just like map map one IG do have side choice so there's a couple different ways you can play this quick note on the kills here these two project very very bloody especially Invictus but the frequency at which they hit these extremely high kill games is pretty low on the EDG side given how they prefer to play so if you think these are more Invictus style games or throws back and forth like we've been seeing a lot in this lower group then I kind of want to get some exposure to like ultovers or like play this in DFS Invictus have almost like a full combined kill per minute which is you know well above the point eight five league average I'm going to go through tonight and do some separating of these two groups and kind of handicap them as separate groups and take a look at what the data is saying that way I'm going to try to do that when I get a chance to tonight when I get home yeah this might be a game for DFS exposure they score pretty well and wins too anyway I played Invictus series money line plus 151 for one you know I'm not going to play all kills I'm just going to stick with the side there. LGD plus 110 on the money line plus 1/A of some minus 271 minus 1/A of is it plus 312 against FPX from plus Phoenix minus 142 on the money line minus 1/A of is that plus 203 plus 1/A of is that minus 448 the only change here is that Kepler is getting his first start in a while for LGD yeah model flagged FPX sides is very strong FPX first blood is a moderate play and a slight edge on the time total unders here LGD are playing it back to back I talked a lot about that yesterday not putting a lot of weight on it but worth noting so here's the thing LGD have faced gating back to before the esports World Cup they faced BLG anyone's legends JDG and then BLG again that's an absolutely brutal stretch outside of like playing top esports like that's the only thing missing from this equation right they actually got BLG the first time before the break but they haven't won a single game since then and the model weights more recent performance more heavily so you know this is a team that hasn't had a gold lead at 20 minutes since before the esports World Cup but looking at the opponents they faced it's completely understandable why they're definitely better than their current model rating I think we can all agree on that they faced just you know that'd be like facing the top teams in the NFL over and over and over again yeah you're gonna look worse and FPX are probably the softest opponent that they're gonna get since like the back to back against RNG back in weeks two and three and maybe you can make a case for team WE in week three as well but so this is kind of interesting FPX have been an odd team they probably should have lost their match to O against and ninjas and bajamas but NIP through like a I think they had like a 10,000 gold lead in that game two and then they lost game three straight up they played JDG really close into two to one loss last week and before the esports World Cup probably should have taken a game off them before throwing a huge lead themselves so you know they're putting themselves in advantageous game states pretty often which is normally something I like in teams but they're having a really really tough time closing the door they only have you know they only have a 53.3% closing rate despite having a lead at 20 minutes and 68% of the games and a significant lead in almost 32% of their games so they're kind of a weird one this is tricky model makes FPX a strong value again because they're putting themselves in advantageous game states but I think you kind of have to give a manual bump to LGD because we know that they're better than what they've played against recently this is the easiest match that they've had in a while not that FPX is easy they also get a bump for side choice at the same time fun plus are putting themselves in good spots but have had trouble closing so you can maybe you know knock them down a tad if you do those things it makes up for most of the delta between my model price and the current market price I would still lean to FPX in this spot it feels like an FPX spot the Kepler thing is bizarre to me but again 80 cars are like the running backs of League of Legends it doesn't really matter all that much when they're shifted out unless it's a complete stylistic change so I want to trust the models here but I think there's enough reasons to kind of just like I think it's close enough once you make all the manual adjustments to this to just like pass on this match so lean to FPX money line but no play for me ninjas in pajamas plus 294 in the money line plus 1/2 is at minus 115 minus 1/2 is that plus 735 against JD gaming minus 417 in the money line minus 1/2 is at minus 1/11 plus 1/2 is at minus 16/08 no lineup changes for this but she is getting the start for JDG again JDG have it back to back today and tomorrow so keep that in mind model makes this pretty close to market I know JDG have had a few shaky games here and there but this is still a team that dominating the majority of their games they have statistically significant gold lead to 20 minutes in 52% of their games which is absolutely bananas as we know with the squad they're a great macro team they're very experienced they're versatile they're really tough to close games out against so they've had a few comeback wins as well NIP are quite the opposite third experience team but they are not a strong macro team they have a lot of good players and they're good at team fighting but they are not good at pretty much anything else so this is normally the kind of team that you get fat prices on as an underdog but NIP have enough respect in the market that like I'm there's just very few times that I'm ever going to bet on NIP because I think they're tremendously overrated but I also don't like their odd like I don't like their chances against these good teams very much an IPF side choice though I could see a case from maybe playing like map one NIP and then like map two JDG kill spread kind of situation but um I think this is pretty close to market price so I'm just going to pass on this one heavy lean to like JDG map two but eight and a half is a pretty big kill spread to cover maybe you play like map one NIP plus eight and a half I think they jump out on JDG I think it's possible the problem is like NIP have a significant deficit at 20 minutes and 21.4 percent of their games and JDG have end up seeing early game it have been playing extremely well in the early game recently so I wouldn't want to mess with that personally um no plays for me in this one LCK week five day three KT Rolster when it's 619 on the money line minus one half is that minus 146 plus one and a half so minus 1924 against DRX plus 438 on the money line plus one and a half is that plus 120 minus one and a half is that plus 1052 model made this minus 308 plus 272 so an edge on DRX here so KT you know if you go back to before you sports World Cup the reverse sweep they had of T1 KT of one six games in a row now admittedly so that was against T1 before the World Cup and then Nogshim and fear X so you know DRX aren't all that much different a level of competition to the latter here but it's safe to say that KT have you know somewhat righted the ship here that said this is a huge number for KT Rolster and what is our rule with KT Rolster that KT is big dogs and we fade them as big favorites that still stands true today look if you if you actually look at the games that KT Rolster played against Nogshim and fear X in particular and I guess we'll go back to the T1 series too because they haven't been in great form either if you look at those games they actually have first blood in seven of the last eight games and in the past seven games they've actually had a pretty like modest lead at 20 like considering the good start that they've had in those games they haven't really ballooned it to a huge lead and really all but like one game so like even though they're getting good starts they're still not blowing leads open it's not like this is like a complete domination they're getting good starts in games and not really doing much with it I kind of think a lot of their wins have been more because their opponents haven't been very good than necessarily their own creation now DRX aren't very good so they're going to contribute in that way at the same time you're kind of this would be kind of like uh this would be like buying KT Rolster at the high and then shorting DRX at the low if that makes sense like the things that you're not supposed to do sometimes you can with this momentum if you think KT's momentum is real then go for it I do not I think this team is very relative to market price KT or hella fraudulent right I don't think they're a bad team necessarily but like they're just like ninjas and pajamas they have good players they have name-brand players they're good at team fighting they're good individually but um as a team they're not very good they don't have good macro and they don't have mid-late game decision making that's uh envious so or things to be envied rather um model like neutral unders in this one because DRX tend to get steamrolled only 13% of their games have gone to a fifth dragon or a second baron and 17.4% of their games have gone to a 13th or more towers combined listen I want I want a piece of DRX here more because I want to fade KT Rolster at price than anything so I'm look I was looking and looking and looking and normally like the way I would play this is like neutral overs or a kill spread or kill total overs as like a proxy for the underdog winning but like DRX have had they've had a couple games where they've looked really clean and closed games out but like I could see a situation where these turn into slot fest games and DRX still don't get across the finish line but I could also see KT just getting steamrolled because KT tend to be fester famine too remember high volatility team so I wanted a piece of of DRX to fade KT Rolster and but all of the methods through which I would normally play that are are you know clashing with what the model is saying um like model loved like super strong double digit edge on market price on a neutral objective under which would be the preferred method I'd have of playing the dog in this game but I've been getting myself into trouble with this exact kind of situation this season where it's like I have a qualitative disagreement with my quantitative you know analysis model right I have a reason for it I feel strongly about my qualitative reason I trust my intuition on this stuff most of the time now most of the time this year I've been going the opposite and like hard fading my model and not just going against like not just betting against it but like or not just like ignoring it or like disagreeing with it but like betting against it I'm not going to do that here I'm heavily into the DRX side and objective under but I've learned my lesson enough here I'm gonna I'm gonna just stay away from this one qualitatively I think just intuitions telling me DRX are going to be chippy in this and that KT should not be this big a favorite against anybody because they're just not to be trusted at the same time you know I can't really you know reconcile the disagreement with the data either so I'm just going to pass on this one that's been at least going down freaks minus 592 on the money line minus 1 to have maps at minus 143 plus 1 to have some minus 1855 against okay brian's savings bank plus 422 on the money line plus 1 to have is that plus 118 minus 1 to have is that plus 1024 model made this minus 265 plus 236 strong advantage to the brian sides under 12 and a half towers and then a slight advantage to the kill total overs and brian first blood um there's a really really interesting one for DFS uh both teams very very high volatility very far away from uh league norms but in opposite directions brian or volatile to the over quang dong volatile to the under um and that makes sense qualitatively based on how these teams tend to play uh I'm not playing either of those but kind of makes me wish I could play like some kind of like options strangle or like an iron butterfly or something like that but I digress that's a whole different conversation um that would be that's the future of sports that would be so cool anyway um brian actually you can kind of play that in like traditional sports with likes like totals bands like kill you know point bands and stuff like that but anyway um brian have been feisty of late they really posted jet lag t1 in that series um they tested d plus key in game one they probably should a two o'nongshim despite getting o'tude but they simply could not get across the finish line it's this team it's really frustrating because they're actually putting themselves in advantageous situations like a decent amount but they just can't close the door um they only have a lead at 20 minutes in 36.4 percent of their games but they've only won 37 and a half percent of those games so it's like it's tragic brian uh brian are probably better than their record but not much better quang dong I do think are like your your number five team maybe your number four team with how t1 have been sliding recently but at the same time like this is a huge number for them they are four and oh against kill spread but they're and three and one against the map spread is favorites brian are 0 and 9 against the map spread but they are four and five against the map spread or they're 0 and 9 is straight up as dogs but four and five against the map spread is dog so I think you could play kill total overs as a proxy for them or you could just play brian straight up um I think like the thing is like if you factor in that like quang dong I've had a really brutal stretch of schedule here like they played d plus gen g and hamwa they had darex in there too but like that's even still like they're less four matches three of them have been extremely difficult tests so like they're probably a little bit better than my models rating I think this should probably be closer to like minus 350 maybe minus 300 minus 350 so I'm a little bit more bullish on quang dong than my model is uh I like I think I think this matches further apart than the model makes it is what I'm saying but at the same time there's a huge huge delta and I think there's a big enough edge and brian have been chippy enough recently that if they can get across the finish line one of these then I think um they'll be in good shape also quang dong are not a team that tends to do that well early they're kind of a slow grinded out kind of team so I could see brian jumping out and actually closing one out here so it's a whole you know special I don't like it it's kind of ugly but it's the biggest price compared to kill totals and and the series money line I do not want to bet the brian series money line with how weak they've been at closing games but I do think they can get one here so I'm gonna play brian plus one and hit maps of plus 118 for one unit again model made this like minus 145 I think it's probably closer it'll like minus 120 minus 125 so I'll take the plus 118 hold unit special that's gonna be it for me today I
