The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my Patreons at patreon.com/jalatiLOL. There you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You'll also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jalatiLOL, that's G-E-L-A-T-I-LOL. Good evening everybody, it's currently about 4-10 p.m. eastern on Wednesday, July 17th. Quick recap from this morning, we had D-plus Kia against Okbrion Savings Bank. We had Kill Total Overs in both these games over 24.5. First one missed because it was a little bit too lopsided to stomp of a game. Second one got there thanks to a reset from D-plus Kia. Second one kind of played out more like I thought it would. The first one was a little bit too lopsided, like Brielne were down I think like 10,000 gold in like the first 21 minutes or something, so it was like too lopsided, like you're okay with a blowout, you just need like the ability to do anything that was not the case in this one. The other LCK match was Quang Donk Freaks against Hanwa Life Esports. This was an interesting, first game was like one way traffic, second game was a lot more interesting, was really really close. It looked like Quang Donk had kind of turned the corner, I loved the scaling they had in their composition, but Hanwa just kind of like team fought them better, picked up the Baron and essentially like ended the game off a bit over the course of the next six or seven minutes. So Quang Donk showing some fight, they're like just short of the mark, like they're like just quite not good enough to really hold serve and beat these good teams. Like they keep getting better, I think they're a pretty good team, I actually think they're probably the best of the rest. Like I think right now they're probably your fifth best team, I like the more than KT, I like the more than really any of the other people in the middle of the table or bottom of the table. I think D+ Hanwa, T1 and Gen G are all clearly better than them, but I think they're probably your next best team. Over to the LPL, Jesus, this was another another sh*t show at the f*ck factory in the LPL here. Game one, Team W, or T, Thundertaw Game and get the 2-0 against Team W, Game one of this game of this match. W, we kind of opened up a, it wasn't a statistically significant lead, but it was like moderate over the first like 20 or so minutes in this game, proceeded to throw this all the way back, basically got aced and lost the game in the, whatever it was, like 35 minutes or something. I'm going off my memory here, I'm not reading my notes, so I think it was like 34, 35 minutes, something like that, they just got aced and lost the game out of nowhere. TT probably had no business winning this, but good Ken planks or a thing. The second game was honestly one-way traffic, once TT picked up a small advantage, and they were in full control of this game, they got a 4-Drake soul. Yeah, this was a near like a tutorial, you know, when 26 minutes, they got all three inhibitors down, 4-Drake soul, like did everything you're supposed to do. Kind of clinical from Thundertaw, kind of lower this team's been, all summer split, but you know, whatever. Top e-sports laid an absolute beat down on Waybo, this match was not close at all. I don't want to say Waybo turned back into a pumpkin as much as top e-sports, kind of just like got right after dropping a bunch of maps or a bunch of, you know, they dropped like a bunch of games the past like week or so, so it's kind of good to see them get off the schnide, relative to them, you know, it's not like they're really on a slide or anything, but you know, they dropped a few games. We ended up plus 1.491 units on the day, pretty good day, we cashed. What do we get? This is mostly off the back of Thundertaw. We split the plus money stake. I think we made like a nickel net on the on the kill total overs and that Breon, damn once, or Breon D plus series, because we took plus 102 and plus 105, we split, we won the plus 105. Kwang Dang Hanwa, map one got under 12 and a half towers. That was a nice, nice win. Thundertaw got the plus one and a half maps and specifically the map two split stake that I did home. So that was kind of nice. We kind of created like a like an artificial like minus 130 ish position on that in a weird way. But yeah, nice win. Got to piece together about 50 more of these to have a really good season. But you know what? That's what we do. That's what we're here for. We're grinding, right? We're going to go in reverse order today. We're going to do the LCK first because I don't think these matches are all that interesting. Week five, day two, we have two massive, massive favorites on this slate. We have T one minus 1648 on the money line, minus one halves up, minus 267 against Gankay fear X plus 939 on the money line, plus one halves that plus two 12 minus one halves that plus 1874 model made this minus 465 plus 409 so slightly shorter. Model really, really liked kill total overs and dragon total overs in this one. I wouldn't play T one at this price only because T one have looked a tad shaky of late. And I normally like fear X is kind of like a like a chippy underdog if they can kind of drag teams into the mud and their their bar room brawl kind of kind of style. The thing is like recently fear X haven't been getting the good starts and games that they normally were and like spring and really for most of last year as well. They're just kind of just getting blown out. Like they have a significant deficit at 20 minutes and 35% of their games. They only have a lead of any size at 20 minutes in 23% of their games and they've had like two significant leads at 20 minutes this entire summer season so far. So like I don't like it. Actually not to just one significant lead. So I think if you're going to spot T one a lead, they're as good as anybody. And that kind of helps some of the shakiness like really, really the way teams are beating T one of late. Like if you look at the whole year of 2024 in the aggregate, T one are one of the best early game teams in the world. But of late like the past like three or four weeks or so, they have not been. They've kind of been like suspect early and then teams have been jumping out on them. They've had a problem solve their way out of weird situations and to their credit they've been doing that. But the way to jump the way to beat T one is to jump out on them and the way for your ex has been playing early games so far. I just don't see it with them. I think if you are going to play for your ex in this contest, the way to do it would be to play kill total overs because T one are more than willing to oblige them. If you look at fear exes, kill like combined kills per minute against the good teams, they're 0.76 against Hanwa 0.85 against Genji. And they're 1.05 against D plus which is very, very high. So T one tend to rough and tumble a little bit more than the other elite teams do, especially Genji and Hanwa. So they're more than willing to scrap. And if you think fear ex can jump out on them, then I think the kill total overs are a great play. The model was like double digit edge on market on all of those. My concern with that is that the model is using mostly frequency for this. That's most of the waiting for it. And then it uses a combination of that and projection. And then if you want to do like, you know, for my kill total model, I'm not running as many likes, I'm not running simulations for it. I just kind of eyeball it personally. And I think for a situation like this, you just have to consider that like a vast majority of the game states, like the game script that's going to happen is that T one blow open or an early game lead. And this is just not close at all. This is a match I'd probably target for DFS though, because I think, you know, fear x, there's a lot of like volatility and they're killed, like they're killed combined kills per minute and per game, because when they do, when they are able to stabilize a game, they will just constantly fight all the time. The problem is when you're constantly fighting all the time, it creates an unstable game state. And it kind of feeds into that, right? So it's like not, it's like kind of an anti self fulfilling prophecy, like it kind of, you know, ends itself. So you have, there are outlier games with fear x where like they will just keep fighting and we've seen teams put up 30 burgers on this team before. So like, I would want a piece of T one. And if you want to play some fear x, I would prefer to do so in DFS, then straight up betting. But if you're going to play the dogs being competitive in this one, kill total lovers are my preferred method to do that. Second or kill total overs, I apologize. Second game in the LCK tomorrow, nongshim plus 2594 for the noodley boys. Good God, 26 to one on the money line. There's only one team this could be against. Plus one had maps of plus four 68 minus one is at plus 4824 almost or more than 48 to one against gen G minus 7300 on the money line. The minus one haves at minus six 70 model made this plus 1060 minus 1400. Obviously this is like a, you know, second standard deviation level level situation here. Nongshim aren't good, but Nongshim are competent, and they have two extremely good players in Sylvie and Jiwu, Jiwu, especially that are capable of carrying a game. I know Genji are really, really good. I know, but this is like the nosebleeds here. This is this is rare air that we're talking for prices here. The bad LCK teams, maybe not last year, but this year they've been a little bit better. But the bad LCK teams are usually better than the bad teams in the other leagues. They have better macro than a lot of the bad teams in the other leagues. Genji are an extremely difficult team to close games against. So I don't even trust Nongshim to really win this with an edge early in the game. Maybe the thing is, this is like zero margin for error. Like minus 7300 is 98.6% and 87% implied on the, on the sweep here for Genji. This is just a big enough price that I think you, you just have to hold your nose and take a shot on Nongshim. Like I know it's not very likely they win, but it's more likely than 2%. Like it's more likely than that. Like there's a chance, like Genji have not had the entire calendar year. They haven't had that day where they're asleep at the wheel yet. And obviously like you can't like it's a fool's errand to try to guess when that's going to be. But like if they're just going to be priced like this against the bad teams, like I think you just need to take take really small shots against them. So I'm going to play map one Nongshim plus nine and a half kills at plus 108 for half a unit. I think the kill total overs and over four and a half dragons are definitely worth considering as well. I'm going to play the kill spread here. If Vongshim jump out, I could still see them losing. Also like Genji have an average margin of victory of like I think it's like 8.0 or we'd hold average margin of victory 7.92 for for Genji. Now Nongshim have a huge margin to defeat average margin of defeat, which I don't like playing kill spreads for. But I think if they jump out on them, and we've seen Nongshim jump out on teams before, then I think it's possible that they cover the spread and lose the game. So I played the plus nine and a half kills at plus money for half a unit. I'm playing this whole thing small. I played map one Nongshim money line at plus 896 for 0.1 units and I played the Nongshim series money line at plus 2594 for 0.1 units also. So net 0.7 unit stake, 0.7 unit stake, smaller stake here. I just think we're getting to the price point where like the further along in the season we go, the more likely it is that you catch Genji just like coasting a little bit maybe they sub somebody in here. I doubt it, but it's possible we see that. This team has kind of just been the Terminator all year. So this sounds like a stupid narrative street, you know, kind of situation because this team this team has shown no interest in fucking around or really messing around in any way. So it's a maybe a little bit dumb that I'm kind of playing it this way. But I just think this price is so big and Nongshim are competent enough that that it could get there. Like if this was like a worst team, I just wouldn't bother with this. But like if you think Genji just steamroll, I'd play kill total unders would be my preferred method of choice here. But I'm going to take a stab on the dogs here. Just think the price is too big. Just know that, you know, we're betting like a sub 10% outcome here because I think it's like you know, it should be twice that price. And it's not, but it's still highly unlikely. So this is kind of like a golf out rate, right? You got to think of it that way. Like it's not very likely this wins all, you know, but I think the odds are, you know, the likelihood that it happens is more likely than the odds imply. So I'm going to take a stab on it. Just know that it's, you know, that's why you should stake this small. So it doesn't really bother you. Alright, LPO, we have three matches. The first of which is currently off the board at most places. I had to go look and find a price on this at three pet three 65, which are fucked them. I have a history with them. They're the only place floating a price on this. And the reason this is off the board everywhere that will take you recently, a decently sized bet is because RNG have a suspension to deal with. Gage, you got suspended for on stage conduct, basically didn't interview and flame the casters for giving a player the game more or less. And so he's serving a two game suspension because of that. And because of the fact that RNG do not have another jungler rostered currently, they have to shuffle with the current roster so they can't call anybody up. I'm kind of surprised they didn't allow like an emergency call up in this situation. But here we are. So they're shifting I wanty from support to jungle. Tang Wan is going from mid to support. And then XZZ or XZZ is the sub midlaner. He's going to be starting in mid lane. And then juice in Wongfong or as is UP ultra primer playing, you know, who they start with. So here's the thing. This is off the board almost everywhere. I don't have any numbers to I can spit out my model projected price on this, but like does it really matter with this situation? 365 is floating minus 1600 for ultra prime plus 700 for RNG. Listen, I know I know RNG have been pure dog shit. I know this team sucks. But what's our rule? Everybody in this bottom conference sucks. None of these teams are to be trusted. None of them. None of them. Why is ultra prime minus 1600 against anybody minus six ultra prime would wouldn't be minus 1600 against me in the esports department gang playing in a normal game. All right, I'm memeing a little bit. I'm being a little facetious there. But like, do you guys get what I'm saying? Like, are you serious with this? Is ultra prime 90% to meet anybody for real? Get the fuck out of here. There's no way. There's no way. I think I haven't released anything on this because like, I can't play it anywhere, but I'm probably going to take a stab at RNG if it's like six to one or better just because like this is a shitty situation, right? But it's not like these are new players to one another. Like all these players have been on the roster for RNG. They're all practiced together. They all know each other. They all know the personalities. Yeah, they're, you know, essentially new players playing a different position, but the communication issues shouldn't be a problem. And I think people severely underrate just how good professional players are in general. They most of them play every position, like they solo queue. They don't just play only their position and solo queue. They play everything. It's just about keeping their hands and understanding the role in the game. And a lot of these guys are veterans that know, I mean, it makes actually makes sense for I wanted you to be playing jungle because your support and jungle are kind of, you know, joined at the hip. So I'm not trying to like, hoping this away. Ultra Prime absolutely should win this game. I just think this number is a little too crazy. That said, nowhere that takes a reasonable size bet is taking any action on this right now. If and when that happens, I will let you guys know I'm probably going to be on RNG and I'm probably going to be on kill total overs in this match because I think, you know, a little bit of sloppiness could lead to some chaotic game states and we could end up getting a complete Fiesta here. I don't know how draft Kings is going to end up putting the positions for these players. I haven't looked yet, but if it's reasonable, yeah, you should be, you should be, I mean, if they're, if they're having I wandy as a support and he's playing jungle, then that's just going to be chalk and you want to fade that in cash and stuff like that. But if they're actually positioning this correctly and playing it right, then it kind of cool, I guess. And we'll have some opportunities here. I will release an update via the Patreon post post on this one probably later tonight. Second match of three in the LPL, we have wayboat gaming plus 145 on the money line, plus one a half is a minus 214, minus one a half is a plus three 93 against anyone's legend, minus 189 on the money line, minus one a half is a plus 163, the plus one a half is a minus 602. Same lineups for both these teams model made this plus 464 minus 583. So a very strong value on anyone's legend. Again, model loves anyone's legend. I love anyone's legend. And yeah, so that's it. That's the handicap. Model light unders and correlated neutral unders for time total unders in this one as well. This is kind of a weird spot in the schedule. I'm going to talk about this a couple times over the next few days, but we have a couple teams coming into back to backs here. We don't see back to backs very often. It happens every once in a while, just the way the schedule falls. But we're gonna have like a handful of back to backs here with the more condensed three match schedule going on in the LPL. Wayboat played this morning, got utterly raffle stomped by top esports. That was a no contest. And then they have to turn around and play anyone's legend again tomorrow. Well, that's a tough ask. So here's the thing. We saw a lot of this during covid and there was kind of a dynamic to it back then because like it was back to backs and then like two days off and then back to back again. Like it was just a lot. But in general, I think you could make a case that there's like, you want to back teams that are in good form or have a good read on the patch. But you also, you know, want to factor in like maybe a prep disadvantage for having to prepare on back to backs, especially if it's against like a good team and a good team or an elite team and an elite team. So I think it's like, they kind of like cancel each other out. And I'm not really putting much weight or consideration on this back to back angle. But I just thought I'd mentioned it because there's a few teams that are going to be coming into these soon. We have a few more this week. I think LGD and somebody else that I forget has has them. So yeah, I think for me, weibo have side choice here, which is a little concerning. Weibo clearly have shown the upside. They stomped JDG. That's pretty good upside to me. They had looked pretty good the last couple of weeks and they got absolutely destroyed today by top e-sports. I think anyone's legend, believe it or not, might be on that level. Their numbers say that they're on that level. Even if they're not quite there, I think anyone's legend is a play here. I'm going to play the money line instead of the sweep because they are off sides. If you prefer, you can play just map two wouldn't shock wouldn't completely shock me to see Weibo win this two to one. It would shock me to see them win two though. So I think anyone's legend map two or anyone's legend series money line. I think we see something something along those lines. I think it's possible they win two. So I played if this wasn't, I'm trying to follow my rules of not overstaking, not overstaking offside, etc. Not going too hard to the paint on what the model says is a huge edge. But if you're like Kelly staking, this would be like a massive, massive play on anyone's legend. I think my model is probably a little bit more bullish on it than I am. But I do think they should probably be like 75% to win this and they're being priced like what 64% or whatever it is. So pretty big edge here. I'm going to play anyone's legend on the money line minus 189 for one unit though. Another interesting match, third one in the LPL tomorrow billy billy billy gave me minus 227 on the money line, minus one half is at plus 142. The plus one half is a minus 749 against LNG e-sports plus 172 on the money line, minus one one half is at minus 185, minus one half is at plus 458. Same starters for these two model made this minus 246 plus 212. So pretty much that on the number here. Pretty close anyway. Flight kill total overs is a moderate play and a couple of light advantages on neutral objective overs. This should be an interesting match. I don't have a play on the side here. LNG have been pretty good in the recent matches, so that makes me kind of a little hesitant to back BLG. But this is BLG on side at a reasonable, like usually it's a shocker to see BLG priced anywhere remotely close to fair. So like, I'm kind of inclined to want to get involved with them just because we've kind of seen a dip in them to buy here as much as there's going to be one, I guess. At the same time, like, I don't know. LNG have looked good enough recently that I have enough respect for this and I think this is pretty close to price that like, I don't think it's a big enough edge to warrant a play. If you're looking at the LNG side of this, the caution I would put out there for you is that this is a team that, you know, they have a significant deficit in almost 32% of their games. And Billy Billy are arguably a top four early game team on the planet, one of the best in the world. And that has not stopped recently. So I think if, like, that would be my concern if you're going to back LNGs that I think, you know, this could be one way traffic. As a matter of fact, if you made me play something in this match, I would probably play like Billy Billy, map one, kill spread, because I think you can get like, minus five and a half or minus six and a half on this, because I think there's just so many game states where this is one way traffic for Billy Billy, and it's just a complete shell lacking in like 26 minutes or something. So if you think LNG are going to get there, if you think they're going to be competitive in this match, kill total overs or how I would play it, if you think it's going to be a one way stop for Billy Billy, I would play Billy Billy kill spreads or the sweep. Yeah, I mostly I'm just like a little too concerned with with LNG getting steamrolled. They kind of spot teams a lead a little more often than I would like, especially like big leads. So no play from me in this one lean toward a, I would probably lean toward kill total overs if you like LNG or the like minus six and a half kills for Billy Billy if you like Billy Billy. That's going to be it for me. I'll be back tomorrow.
