The League of Legends Betting Podcast
Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 - LPL
Recorded on: Monday, July 15th at 450pm Eastern
Recap 0:26
LPL Slate 3:39
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The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my patrons at patreon.com/jilladellol. There you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You'll also get to support your creators more directly. It's about 4.50 pm on monday, july 15th, quick recap from this morning, got our Invictus plus 1.5 maps home by a fucking, I don't even want to call it a miracle because at this level it's not, it's really not. This was a candidate for one of the worst series, like in terms of quality of play for the year of 2024. In fact, it might have actually just been the worst series that I've seen this year. This was, this was a dog shit product, this was bad. This was the kind of series that really, the fixes in crowd could have a ball with because Tienxin was just fucking sprinting it every game, that really both junglers were just taking turns sprinting it. Griffin had a few really fucking suspect plays too. I think Griffin died like four times, like in the, in the, what's it called like the replay break between plays in this game, like we come back from replay and he's dead, come back from replay and he's dead again, come back from replay and he's dead again. Tienxin just not pressed, I mean, to be fair he was like chain CC'd but like, Tienxin just like not even bothering pressing his kindred ult, not even bothering to flash out at any given point, like, I don't know what the fuck was going on in this series, but it was shady as fuck, both teams had a ton of kills, both teams, there was probably like six or seven different like high, high win at like, like win probability changes, like throws, like, like a 15 to 20% win probability shift, there's probably like five or six of those in this series. This bottom conference, I'm, I stand by what I said before, like this bottom conference is such a dogshit product to watch that like, it's, it's becoming like, I don't even know if I want to watch these matches anymore, like I'm doing it because I have to, but I'm not, like, I'm not really watching these live anymore, I'm just gonna vaud watch them, it's it's so shit, it's so bad, I don't know, I'm not, I know I'm in a piss poor mood and I'm just being a miserable cranky motherfucker, but like for real, this, this, this bottom conference is such dogshit to watch, this is a bad league of legends, this is like fucking silver level shit guys, like, come on, he called a shit professional, it's fucked up. Anyway, we ended up winning that bet, so plus point six, one, three units on the day, it's possible to actually win wholly fucking Moses, right, BLG, LGD was mostly one way traffic from BLG in both of these, LGD was able to pick up a couple dragons, but they were never really, they never really had any kind of advantage in this match. First game was actually kind of close at times, but they were never gonna get there. I guess let's move on to tomorrow, all right, week three, day two, we have rare atom minus 113 on the money line, one plus one to have some minus 347, minus one to have, is that plus 253, it's Edward gaming, minus 113, minus one to have set plus 252, the plus one has minus 349 a true pick them here. No lineup changes for either of these teams, model made EDG minus 158 favorite, so showing strong value on EDG there. You know, I think I wrote in the Patreon post, like I think the markets finally starting to kind of come around to the same, like the thesis that I had going into this, which is that like none of these teams in this bottom conference are really any good besides maybe WEE who are like competent and maybe thunder talk, but like really, really the only like surefire thing is Team WEE and I don't even think they're that good. So I think the market is finally starting to come around to the fact that like holy shit everyone sucks that these are just coin flips and that's been my thesis essentially since day one. We're finally getting pricing on that like the second the second half of the season in this bottom conference is probably going to be a whole lot of my model telling me one of these teams is a small value me ignoring my model and just passing because it's just going to be I think all these matches just going to be price coin flip moving forward. As a matter of fact I'm going to quick take a look I'm going to do this live on air here I'm going to let's just look at like the lower conference matches for the rest of the week and some of the pricing here a little bit of a look ahead look WEE minus 300 against TT plus 241 I'm probably going to be on TT there if I had to guess but that's tomorrow. RNG ultra prime why the fuck is ultra prime minus 172 offside to anybody I don't give a fuck how bad RNG is like we're starting to see at least some compression because like a lot of these were not you know I never mind I guess not this market is so stupid look at this shit Friday you have Edward gaming 66% implied nope I don't buy it fuck you like that yeah I don't know this is maybe maybe I'm wrong maybe this this specific matchup is just coincidence and it's not going to move that way. As I'm speaking someone's betting EDG not for much but yeah look the way this goes model makes EDG a big like a like a minus 158 favorite that's a pretty big difference in implied win probability it's like eight and a half percent something like that nine percent but they're offside most of the bottom conference teams have been significantly worse offside then on side EDG are actually kind of stable they're like one of the only stable ones really between off and on they have slightly better economy but like again like none of these teams like it like it the fucked up thing is like the stats for this like almost don't even matter because these teams fundamentals are so dog shit that like and so I said going like a couple weeks ago that I was going to like oh like up my threshold for what warrants a play in this bottom conference because like the numbers lot the numbers when you have teams that just have really really poor fundamentals and decision making that's essentially like a team that turned the ball over a lot in football where like they could have all this crazy good EPA per play data and everything and you could look at it and be like oh man you know this team has an EPA per play advantage when they're you know running the ball or whatever or when they're passing the ball their defense is creating advantages for them and all that right but if there's just like a lot of turnover variance like you kind of throw all that shit out the window you know I mean not entirely but like it just matters less because like if neither team is going to have any kind of substantial edge gains in in terms of like a per play or like an economic basis in League of Legends if neither team is going to have that much of a difference in those situations but some stupid play is going to blow the game open and that's going to be your win probability swing then like it's tough to really handicap that unless there's a qualitative reason for it like this team makes fewer mistakes than this team does right with this bottom conference like all these teams make so many mistakes besides we really who are mostly like reasonably fundamentally sounds like all these things make so many mistakes that like all this data just it just doesn't it's not that means nothing it just doesn't mean as much so you have to just keep that in mind when looking at these teams I'm not model says I should play a dg here edg I think have been slightly better ish I mean rare Adam have had a couple pop off games where they look good in their pop off games but as we've discussed with them like their feast or famine so if you get the high rolling rare at if you get the high rolling rare Adam they're probably going to steam roll because they tend to like when they win it's they they spike in early game and they just like snowball really hard that's how rare Adam tends to win not the third capable of throws they've had some unforgivable ones this season but I mean dude like you got two lucky wins from EDG three lucky wins from rare Adam the couple of the teams have had huge throws over the year like rare Adam have had a few absolute blowout losses like almost half their losses are blowout losses like I mean if you want to just look at like maybe the best way to look at these bad teams is to is to ignore like the economy stats and look more at like how they're like what their game states are in most frequently like you could see like like rare Adam has a significant deficit at 20 minutes and 45% of their games like in other words in other words they're like I mean they have three lucky wins on the season which is crazy but outside of those three lucky wins if you if you switch those to losses if you switch those to losses they're probably probably have something along the lines of like a 55% and it's probably they're probably like 50 50 significant deficit at 20 maybe a little bit more than that that's insane that's horrible that's like half your games are unwinnable and then the other half are maybe winnable in their case they have super high volatility grades are like maybe that's the case for edg being a bigger favorite I don't know I think I'm kind of talking myself into an edg position here but like I really just don't want anything to do with this bottom conference whatsoever these games aren't even like fun to sweat because like these teams suck so bad that like yeah you can feel like you're in a good spot and they're just gonna fucking throw it you know like yeah I don't know I would lean edg but no play for me in this one it's probably edg if you if you have to play something DFS players I'd probably up your exposure although I didn't look at the pricing so don't quote me on that second match ninjas the pajamas - 162 on the money line - one has a +185 + one has a - 511 against fun plus Phoenix + 126 on the money line + one a half mass at - 245 and the - one half is that +346 no lineup changes for either of these but just a reminder the ZZ now FPX is top laner model made this pretty much a pick them made FPX actually a very very short favorite by a smidge FPX are offside here so nip get a slight bump on that front so FPX is last two matches we're gonna send anyone's legends in JDG two of the top four teams in the league they actually got a game off JDG but they kind of got blown out in the other four games in those two matches nip have now dropped six games in a row they have a common opponent here or anyone's legend and then LNG and Wabo smoked them as well I will say one of one of really the only benefit there's there's two benefits one is it's pretty easy to just not tune into the bottom conference games because they all suck second the other benefit to this is that in this upper conference anybody that's in there fraudulently is gonna get exposed very very quickly because they're just only play against top of the table they're not gonna get you know they're not gonna be able to juke opinions because like if you really think about it like if a schedule lays out a certain way and you see this in the NFL all the time too but like if you get a schedule that like kind of lays out in just the right way you can kind of sustain the illusion that you're good for a longer period of time or maybe you sustain the illusion that you're worse for a longer period of time depending on the cal the matches fall and how you're performing at in the the ebbs and flows of your season I kind of think nip and I've known this for a long time but like this is a team with really really really bad fundamentals they have very good players and they're very good at team fighting and that's it as a team they have really poor macro they have really poor vision control they they're set up for objectives is horrendously poor they basically just try to hands diff you and they happen to have good players so they can do that but from a fundamental standpoint they might as well have been building their fun you know fundamental house on a fucking peep bug because this team does not have it they either hands diff you or they don't and that's that so in a given game yes they can they can beat anybody because they have the talent to do so but they're just going to be tremendously inconsistent because they and the sad thing is they haven't gotten better that's the worst part of this so it's been six months they're still not any better at this shit it's the same problems so this is an interesting one fpx about a tough outing it it's kind of looked at times like fpx have kind of turned the corner and figured their shit out economically and I appear a slightly better team but as I've discussed just now like they're not they're not a team that you can rely on to really quote unquote do their job fpx's issue has been more throwing games like they've had you know they've had a lead at 20 minutes and 73 percent of their games they've had a significantly to 20 minutes and 36.8 percent of their games but they've only closed 50 percent of those so in terms of like game state advantages fpx have actually had similar to nip like percentage of games the leave, percentage of games with a significant lead and same with deficits they these two teams have pretty similar profiles the differences fpx have thrown a couple and that's really the only difference between these two now typically teams that have put it that are putting themselves in advantageous game states are ones that you want to rely on every once in a while you get that really weird team like liquid in 2023 that just sucks so bad at closing and it may never fix that problem but I tend to err on the side of those teams figuring that part of it out and I'd rather be backing teams and it's that put themselves in a in a situation a good advantageous situation right so the fact that these two teams are similar on that front nip have a slightly better you know economy grade like ever so slightly they've also just won more games and it's waiting recent performance and fpx have had a tougher schedule of late so I think I think this is an fpx play they are offside which sucks so I think you have to play the plus one and a half maps or you have to play the just specifically map two or I prefer playing that over the actual money line because they're going to be offsides in one and three so I think you play fpx map two or fpx plus one and a half maps I opted for the more aggressive route and played map two plus one 18 for one unit as I'm recording this unfortunately this is kind of going the other way you have to search around that's at pinnacle where I got that but like if you look at some of the other offshores that price is long gone this is basically a pick them on a map to map bases are pretty close to it so I wouldn't play this at anything less than like plus 110 but I think they are greater than a coin flip on a on map two specifically when they have choice so I played that one I think the plus one and a half maps is actually like if you don't actually if I would play the plus one and a half maps if you if these prices get to like minus 105 or something like that I actually would prefer to just play the plus one of like one and a half maps because I think you're they're more they're about these two teams are about a coin flip per map so it's still an advantage even though it's a lesser advantage on on the plus one and a half if you're paying up the minus 260 or something for it but I would much prefer that angle than the other one but again like do your do your calculations or whatever I think I mean what is it coin flip coin flips 25 percent is what plus plus or minus 300 I believe right so you're good you know I'm betting basically the coin flip part you're good to anything less than like minus 275 basically so anyway I played map to money line plus one 18 for one unit for FPX. That's gonna be it for me today. I'll see you tomorrow.
