The League of Legends Betting Podcast
Monday, July 15th, 2024 - LPL and Tilt-fest
Recorded on: Sunday, July 14th at 450pm Eastern
Tilt-fest 0:26
LPL Slate 6:57
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The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my Patreons at patreon.com/jalatiLOL. There you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jalatiLOL, that's G-E-L-A-T-I-LOL. Evening everybody, it's currently about 4.55 pm Eastern on Sunday, July 14th. Just another absolute train wreck of the day. I am getting really, really close to just being done. Those are not words I've said very often. Even during the other bed stretches I've had in my career here doing this, but yeah. Just damaging money. Nothing's working. I don't know. I don't think this is like an analysis paralysis situation. I don't think I'm like rage tilting or anything like that. I think I've been pretty selective. I've reduced my volume greatly. I mean, maybe there's a case to be made. The volume was like my strength. I don't know. But like, yeah, nothing's working. Like, bed stretches happen. I know that. Any kind of risk activity. Whether it's trading or card counting or poker or sports betting, whatever it happens to be. This kind of shit's going to happen sometimes, but like, yeah, I'm having a tough time right now. I'm really lost. I can't figure out what the fuck's going on. I've tried to do an autopsy of this shit. And you know, like past a certain point, you're not running bad anymore. You're doing something wrong and it's incredibly frustrating when I can't figure out what I'm doing wrong. I mean, it's possible, I guess, that like, I've kind of perfectly parlayed together like... I was doing stuff wrong. I observed that. I'm making adjustments. I think I'm fixing what I was doing wrong and now I'm just running bad. I think that's a possibility that is maybe possibly happening to me right now. I've got to tell you, it doesn't feel great. Fucking sucks. When you wake up, you want to choke on a fucking shotgun or something, but like, man, oh man. Like, I don't, like, looking over the P&L and like, like, my P&L's public. You guys can all see my P&L sheet and everything. Like, just looking at what I've bet, it's not like, I don't think I've like... Like, if you just look at what I've bet, I don't think it's tilting. But it feels like I'm tilting because I can't fucking win anything. And like, I don't know if I just like scared myself into being too much of a wimp and I missed out on a lot of opportunities or like... I don't know what's going on, but I can't figure out what it is. It's incredibly frustrating. I'm like, this close to just hanging it up for the year. You know, I've... I was up... What the hell was it? I don't even remember. I went from up, like, I think it was like 15 or 20 units or something like that, to down twice that. Like, I've I've punted my profits times two for the entire year in the last six weeks. You know, I have 189 wagers, 36 and a half percent win rate since June 1st. That's when the season started, summer season started back up. And you know, like, I've been doing this long enough and I've done other jobs associated with risk that I don't typically tilt anymore. I just like... really, my version of Tilt is that I get numb and I go full Jaxfan.gift and I'm just like... I just laugh at it like a psychopath because, you know, this shit breaks you after a while. I've been broken enough times in the past that I... it doesn't usually phase me anymore. But this afternoon, during this L.E.C. slate, I got legitimately mad. And I haven't gotten legitimately mad in a long time, like a long, long time. And I don't... maybe that's a sign to just take a break. I don't know. Like, I've normally been able to remain cool. But, like I said, that's the first time I've legitimately gotten mad at this for the first time in many, many years. And I don't know if that's a sign to just hang it up or stop or take a break. But I've progressed past the point of laughing at how impressively bad this run's been to the point where I'm actually angry. And that's usually the cutoff moment. Like... I try to do nothing... if I try to do nothing... if I do nothing well, it's... if I do nothing else well, it's that I try to be transparent with all of you. And the fact of the matter is, like my confidence is just gone right now. Legitimately feels like I don't know shit about shit anymore. Like, I know that isn't true, but... You know, it's not like I've just been resting on my laurels and coasting and just running the same thing out there. Like, I'm constantly updating, I'm constantly tweaking. Like, you have to. Anytime you're doing this stuff and edge is there, only there for so long, you have to keep progressing or it just disappears on you. You're not just going to be able to do the same thing forever, right? So I'm constantly trying to improve on stuff and maybe it's just lapped me. It's just passed me by. It feels that way. It feels like literally I can't do anything. It feels like I can't do anything right. It's frustrating as fuck. Ugh. I don't know. Like, at the same time, I don't think taking a break is even going to fix anything. 'Cause like, I don't know if anybody else is wired that way, but like, I know for me personally, if I take breaks on stuff, I just get super lethargic and I get into even worse moods 'cause then I get in my own head about shit. I'd almost rather just be busy than to, you know, sit around and sulk on it. So I don't think taking a break is going to fix anything, but like, I also don't know if, like, if I don't know what's going wrong or if I can't figure this out, then I don't know what else to do besides that. So, I don't know. I guess I'll just keep showing up, punching a clock, all that shit, but I'm not in a good place right now. So sorry if I'm not cheeky or funny or talking for like 45 minutes about League of Legends games because it turns out losing money is not fun. Minus almost five units on the day, down bad. OMG, minus 229 on the money line, minus one and a half is at plus 137, plus one and half is at minus 695 against Invictus, plus 188 on the money line, plus one and half is at plus 198. Here at Tansan Angel Starry in PP God, you should know me, GLFS or Griffin Nany on in Vampire for Invictus. I know people are excited about this OMG roster swap, but like, get the fuck out of here with this price. You guys know the deal with this bottom conference. Everyone, besides maybe Team WE, everybody in this conference fucking sucks. Nobody's that much better than everybody. Just hold your nose, take the dog. This is a stupid price. What the fuck have OMG done? To deserve laying minus 229 to fucking anybody. This was the worst team in the LPL like two weeks ago. Are we for real with this? The fuck out of here. Play Invictus plus one and a half maps at minus 163. The money line shut a bigger percentage edge, but I'm a total fucking pussy right now, so. Yeah, I'm playing the plus one and a half maps. This is a stupid price. If I wasn't tilted off the face of the earth right now, this would be like a double or triple stake on Invictus. This is a dumb, dumb fucking price. This should be a pick them. The model made this a pick them just for what it's worth. Like at worst, this should be like IG minus 130. If you want to give some benefit of the doubt to that roster change actually mattering. It's not like they've played well since this change. This team still fucking sucks. They're still the worst agnosc economy team in the LPL. These two are the worst agnosc economy teams in the LPL. Both these teams fucking blow. There's no reason any either of them should be favored by this much. Stupid price. LGD plus 765 on the money line plus one and a half is a plus 190 minus one and a half is a plus 1626 against Billy Billy minus 1200 on the money line minus one and a half is a minus 230. Same lineups for both these teams. The model made this pretty close to market. Flags, first blood for BLG as a moderate play. Over one and a half barons as a moderate play. I would normally play over one and a half barons and in this kind of situation, LGD are typically pretty good at making games go the distance, keeping them close, playing it super slow. But I have a feeling that they're just going to get completely fucking steamrolled by BLG. LGD for a while, they have good agnosc economy and for a while they were keeping games close but you look at the last two weeks, they've actually been kind of getting blown out early in games and if that's no longer a strength of theirs to keep games close then they're just not that good. So, I don't know, like that was like the main redeeming characteristic of LGD is that they were able to keep games close and if they can't do that anymore then this could be a disaster waiting to happen. So, this is probably one way traffic for BLG. The model suggested overs but I think more than likely this is one way traffic for BLG so I'm not going to force the other direction. I don't think there's any real plays to make here. I wrote in the Patreon post what the model flag displays but just keep in mind that if LGD get run over early in this game those are completely null and void so I'm not playing either side of this. I might end up coming back and playing something if this line moves too much I'll maybe play towers under but no action for me in this one, that's going to be it for me, everybody have a good one. Sorry for the lack of recap, I'm just not in the mood for it today. Maybe I'll do it tomorrow or something if I can get off my ass here.
