The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my Patreons at patreon.com/jalatiLOL. There you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jalatiLOL. That's G-E-L-A-T-I-LOL. Good evening, everybody. It's currently about 4.55 p.m. Eastern on Saturday, July 13th. We just finished up with the LEC this afternoon. Man, oh man, just brutal, brutal, fanatic couldn't get there to cover their end of that thing. Just, I just keep getting, I've had so many of these days where I'm just like, I'm close. I'm really, really close to having like, not even a monster day, but like, I end up losing a few of the coin flips by like, a hair on something super, like, it seems like, I've had like, two situations where I've run pretty good in the last like, three weeks and everything else has been the opposite. It's just been running bad or just dead wrong. So, I mean, it wasn't a terrible day today. I was only down about one unit, really, but just the way it happened felt real bad. And, you know, I'm not going to bot like, I'm running short on time right now. So, I'm going to, I'm going to not go over each and every one of these games. D plus probably should have won game two against Gen G and threw it pretty badly. The new, the new Baron changes really kicked into effect on that one. You could see that it was a lot harder for them to blitz it. Something to monitor moving forward for T1 because that's like kind of the T1 special. And if they're not unable to do like the 20, 21 minute, like blitz Baron, that might take, you know, a tool out of their arsenal. But they should have got that Waybo with a basically a perfect game in game one. That was, they won 2-0 in that series. The Invictus Rare Adam series was another shit show. Invictus basically had an unlusable situation. But as we know, with the bottom really two thirds of the LPL, there was no such thing as an unlusable situation because everybody sucks. And Invictus found a way to lose that game. Invictus continued Lux, or Rare Adam continued Luxacking wins over and over again. But whatever. The LAC matches, G2 were pretty dominant. You know, Giant X were chippy. Leave it to me to bed an under in a G2 game. I bet the under 27 and a half there are 44 kills in that game. That's just kind of what's been going on with me. You know, I feel like the what's the meme with the dude that's got the noose around his neck. And he's like, yeah, first time. I feel like that a little bit right now. Anyway, like I said, I'm short on time. So I'm going to be kind of blitzing through these. I'll admit today, I'm probably going to be just reading the Patreon post almost verbatim. So sorry about that. But again, I'm just extremely limited on time. I'll be doing the LAC as a separate show later tonight. And I'll be updating the Patreon post. I just had a whole lot of unforeseen circumstances come up this weekend. That's really crunched by time to get this done. So let's get into this. LPL week two, day seven of the summer split. Ultra Prime plus 119 on the money line plus 1/8. Mass minus 246 minus 1/2 is at plus 332 against Thunder Talk gaming minus 142 on the money line. Minus 1/2 is at plus 201. Plus 1/2 is at minus 431. Same lineups for these two. Chingtian Hacker, Waikai Doggo, Niket, Hoya Beishuan, Yukal, 1XN and Feather. Automate Ultra Prime A plus 109 dog versus the minus 118 favorite. So slightly more compact than the market price. Ultra Prime do have side choice in this match. We do have the, everyone sucks down here dynamic going on with the bottom conference in the LPL. This would make me, you know, this kind of qualifies as like a hold your nose special on Ultra Prime, just, this should, I mean, I think the market price is actually probably a little bit cheap. Like you're getting a good deal on Ultra Prime if you believe in this team. But of the bottom tier teams, I actually think Thunder Talk are probably your second best one. I know they've had that, that stunner loss to rare Adam, but like, I think it's like them and I think we are like your number one. I think it's probably Thunder Talk is your second best team out of this bunch. I think they're going to probably end up making the playoffs, but we'll see how this goes. That doesn't mean I trust them as a minus 142 favorite, but they are all side. I personally qualitatively lean a little bit towards Thunder Talk, but this is gross. I'm not laying 140 with basically anybody in this conference really unless it's like WE against a bad team. So yeah, I don't know, model flagged under four and hit dragons as a decent play in this case, but again, with how these teams have all kind of sucked at closing games out. Yeah, I don't really want to get involved with that. Keep in mind, Thunder Talk have a 40% closing rate this summer, and they only lead in 27.8% of their games. And Ultra Prime haven't exactly been darlings at closing games either. So no play for me in this one, lean toward the Ultra Prime side, even though it's nauseating, but I didn't end up playing it. To match anyone's legend plus 140 on the money line, plus one and a half minus 216, minus one and a half is that plus 378 against JD gaming minus 168 on the money line, minus one and a half maps at plus 178, plus one and a half is that minus 502. Same lineups here. Ali Krakashank's open Kyle, JD gear running sheer Kanabi, a gal ruler and missing model made anyone's legend a favorite in this contest. So it has the wrong team favorite in this match, makes Al a minus 153 favorite. Really it basically makes these odds flipped. So obviously the model fly plays very, very strong side opinion on anyone's legend here. The under four and a half dragons was also a strong play. I want to talk this through a little bit because this is a really, really interesting match. So anyone's legend really haven't played anybody this summer and by not played anybody, I don't mean they haven't played anybody good, but I think it's up for debate whether they've played anybody that's elite, right? The most difficult tests that they've faced were, who else was in their conference? Oh my God. I'm blank. Oh, NIP and Waybo were like the most difficult group stage asks, they haven't really faced anybody particularly good in the regular summer season yet. This is their first, if you think Waybo and NIP are good, you have to remember that was when Waybo weren't looking particularly good, but Waybo did two of them in that weird series before they went back to looking like shit and have now kind of gotten it together at teams. But NIP and Waybo, I don't think are elite teams. I think you could make a case that they're just good and I think good is relative to the LPL in this case because this league is really, really struggle bussing this season. I think the middle of the table has just dramatically fallen off, but I've talked about that a lot before. Okay, let's assume that NIP and Waybo are good. They've been tested by two good teams and more or less past those tests besides that O2 to Waybo, but JDG are the first truly elite team that they're having to face. So this is the first real tough test for anyone's legend. Anyone's legend have been dominant. The model grays them as the second best team in the league. Right now they would be like fifth worldwide. If we did like model power ratings globally, they'd be like the fifth best team in the world right now via the numbers, and it's tough to argue with that other than the caveat that they haven't faced an elite team yet. So, I mean, they have ridiculous numbers, guys, like they have better numbers than JDG. They have better agnostic economy. They have better agnostic gold differential. They have a hundred percent closing rates still. They have a significant lead in a ridiculous 53, 58.3 percent of their games. JDG are obviously going to be a test, but anyone's legend have side choice. In this contest as well. I think you have to give a qualitative bump to JDG for like being a known quantity. But they haven't looked particularly sharp in their last two series either. They dropped a game to FPX, FPX jumped out on them in a game, and then you had they lost outright to Waybo in that O2. So I think JDG are probably a little bit better than we've seen in the last two matches. We know what JDG are. JDG or an elite team, they're very, very good. As legend, it's just a matter of what you think they're going to do against elite teams. If you want to knock them down a peg because they haven't faced anybody good, I think that's reasonable. So knock a couple percentage points off their win rate. And if you want to give JDG a bit of a benefit of the doubt, an increase from my models numbers because they are, we pretty much know they're better than we've seen in the last two matches. That's fine. But even if you do that, it doesn't get out to 168. I can get this to a coin flip, and I think realistically this should probably be priced as a coin flip split one 10s or split one 15s or something like that. So I think this should be a coin flip. You're getting plus 140 on anyone's legend with side choice. So give me the dogs. I'm going to show some faith. I've been going to bat with this team over and over and over, and they just keep winning and they keep dominating. So JDG, very obviously the biggest test that they've had so far in summer 2024. But here we are, anyone's legend, money line plus 141 unit. Like going against the elite teams, but I think anyone's legend might be an elite team and sleeping giant. We just don't know yet. I also think if they win this match, we're never going to see a good price on this team ever again. So keep that in mind. So we have LNG Esports plus 251 on the money line, plus one half set minus 130, minus one half set plus 641 against top Esports minus 314 on the money line, minus one half set plus 109, plus one half set minus 949. Zick away, we scout Galahong and 369, Tian, Korean, Jackie Love and make a model made this pretty close to market price. The only thing it really flagged as a very strong play was the under one and a half barons, which I am going to end up playing on map two, under one and a half barons, minus 137 for one unit. The reason for this is basically top Esports have been such a dominant early game team that only like, they've only had two games go to a second baron this entire summer. And they've played LNG five times this summer. LNG actually handed them their only game loss of the summer. They jumped out to a strong lead on them in one of their games. But other than that, the other three of the other four games, top Esports completely dumpster them. So don't usually like playing under barons when reasonably good teams are playing as each other. But I think top are just on such another level at the current point in time. I mean, shit, they be Genji and Genji are the other undefeated team globally. So specifically how they're playing with how explosive their early game is. I think I like them. I like the under one and a half barons here. I think this is going to be really lopsided games no matter how you slice it. So I played under one and a half barons map to minus 137 for one unit. LCK blitzing through this week, four day, five quant nine freaks minus three, twenty two on the money line, minus one and a half is that plus one away DRX plus two, fifty one on the money line, plus one and a half is at minus one, thirty minus one and a half is at plus six, forty two. I don't made this a little bit shorter than price minus two, forty seven plus two, twenty one flag the under one and a half barons as a double digit, very, very strong edge on market price. Also the under neutrals on four and a half dragons and twelve and a half towers. The side of that weird week two series against Breon, Kwongdung are more or less dominated the bottom of the table whenever they've played them this summer. DRX had a very clean game against Breon early in the season, but haven't had a significant lead at twenty minutes yet this summer. They've been competitive against fellow bottom of the table teams, but picking up wind and they've picked up winds against Freer X and Breon and a game against Nongshim, but they haven't had any significant leads while doing so. I like the Kwongdung side in this contest. Model makes it fairly close to price. I'm not playing the side instead looking to derivatives as my angle of choice here. The one that jumped off the sheet in bull green was the neutral under against DRX, specifically Barons. DRX have been getting utterly steamrolled in a huge chunk of their games, almost 43% of their games start with a significant deficit at twenty minutes, which is an obscenely bad rate. I actually think this team might be okay if they could ever figure that out, but we're toward the end of the first round, Robin, and I'm not hopeful that they have. Kwongdung don't exactly have the most explosive early game, but just nine and a half percent of DRX games go to a second baron, only 23% of Kwongdung games do. The implied here is around 37%. I like the under quite a bit. I played map one under one and a half Barons at minus 172 for one unit. BNK Furex plus 1,083 on the money line, plus one and a half plus two through seventy under dog sweeps at plus 2,144 against how much life eats what's minus 2,000 on the money line, minus one and a half is at minus three hundred, plus 404 minus 472 on the model price. Kill total overs got flagged. This is very strong, but I'm going to talk about that just a second, also the over one and a half Barons here, and first blood for Furex actually got tagged as well. We know the deal with Hanwagans bottom half teams, it's not a surefire thing, it's been in the past since they've been getting a little bit outside the box and experimenting a bit against the bad teams this summer, but it still applies to some degree. This seems built to destroy bad teams, but you're getting a prohibitive price point here to get involved, so to me, this is Furex or pass on the sides, but let's look to see if we can find anything in the derivatives. Kill total overs got flagged because Furex have been an absolute wagon when it comes to this, but if you look at these, how these two teams squared up in spring time, it went 19, 23, 42, 20 and 19. The 42 was in the Furex win, the others were control wired wire by Hanwah, Hanwah tend to be an under team against the, as big favorites, which is the entire bottom half of the table. Furex are an absolutely bloody team, they have a good, they have a way of making games go long, they don't have an obscene combined kills per minute, but they play long games and they are very, very consistent when it comes to scoring kills, so they're just a very solo QE team, they kind of botch games when they get ahead, which plays into this as well. Yeah I'm not personally playing it, the overs, but again, they haven't obscene amount of their games go really, really high, and if you think that Furex are going to have a chance and win this game or upset here, they are a great DFS angle because in wins, they score obscenely well in wins, so I would look to them for large field DFS tournaments, if they do in fact get a stunner win over Hanwah here, they're likely to score super well. No action, I lean to the over 1 and 1/2 barons and the alter over kills, Hanwah go to a second baron in 43% of their games, Furex do so in 54% of their games, you get +166, another angle to play the dogs being competitive if you prefer that one, but no place for me in this one. Did for me, I'll be back with LEC later on tonight, probably early in the morning during the eastern slate, best of luck.
