The League of Legends Betting Podcast
Saturday, July 13th, 2024 Part Two - LEC
Recorded on: Saturday, July 13th at 5:30am Eastern
Part Two for LEC will be released during the Eastern slate in the morning.
LEC Slate 0:26
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The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my Patrons at patreon.com/jalatiLOL. There you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You'll also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jalatiLOL, that's G-E-L-A-T-I-L-O-L. Good morning everybody, it's currently about 5.35 AM Eastern. I'm recording in between games on the Eastern slate, looking like it's gonna be another rough one for me. It was a betting day, it does not feel good, but I had a pretty long night and some car trouble again with the car that I borrowed. I can't catch a fucking break, but it's all figured out, so I guess it could be worse. Anyway, a few hours later, then I thought I was going to be with this, but here's the LEC, I just put the patreon post up. I didn't do the delay, I'm just gonna read, I'm essentially just gonna read right off the patreon post for this because I am completely spent. I just want to lay down and watch these games and then get some sleep. Quick disclaimer about the LEC playoffs here, same disclaimer as yesterday applies, and we ended up seeing it matter quite a bit in the one match, not as much in the other. Two weeks is a lot of downtime for these teams to prep, and this is the last stand for a lot of teams, like for the year. So, just accept that you're gonna get sometimes that wounded animal back into a corner dynamic that happens, and you have to keep that as part of the handicap. Know that anything can happen, we saw BDS come out kind of flat and mad looking excellent today, even though they didn't get there. Give a slight bump to the underdogs and consider that rust can kick in and momentum can be lost, etc. So, just don't rule out some pretty wild results happening, and it'll serve you well. It doesn't mean I think you should ultimately change your handicap on a lot of these, but just keep that in mind. First up, G2E sports on a 788 on the Moneyline, I'm gonna have a 789 against Carmine Corp plus 533 on the Moneyline. Did I read this right? I'm trying to make sure these prices are still there. Yeah, yeah, we're pretty close here. Against Carmine Corp plus 533 on the Moneyline, plus 1, I had maps at +154, the minus 1/2 is at +1070. Model made this minus 562 plus 474, so from a percentage standpoint, not that far off of market price here. And if you give kind of a qualitative bump in both directions, it gets you toward, you know, right about where we're at in the market price here. Look, this is kind of a more qualitative take than not. Unless you think Carmine Corp finally figured it out, like, I don't see any way G2 is losing this series. I'm gonna, you know, the model says it's overpaying. I said I'm gonna stop trying to do this, but this is G2 we're talking about. And Carmine Corp, quite frankly, have not been very good, even though they're, like, improved does not mean good. Unless you think they're gonna automatically figure out a whole bunch of stuff, I don't see them getting across the finish line. I just don't. G2 are an extraordinarily difficult team to close games out against. And even if they spot Carmine Corp of, like, a lead in either of these games or in any of these games, I just don't see Carmine Corp being able to cleanly close a game out. That's something they've struggled with. Their macro is still extremely suspect. They have terrible vision control. And they don't really communicate well as a team. At least it doesn't seem like it's watching them. I'm gonna go ahead and overpay for G2. I paid G2 - 1/2 maps at -175 for one unit. I'm not going bananas here, but kind of just trusting intuition on this one. Like, this is serious time for G2, and they tend to absolutely go nuts when that happens. I'm also going to do something that I rarely do and play an under in a G2 game. Carmine Corp are averaging an obscenely low 0.619 combined kills per minute and just 20.6 combined kills per game. Again, this composite number. Their match against G2 ended 13 to 2. Carmine Corp having a single game over 28 kills with 28 or more kills this entire summer season. It's only nine games, but still. I really hate betting unders in G2 games because you know how they can get sometimes. But I think there's a very, very high likelihood that G2 just completely steamroll Carmine Corp. Casey have not had a very good early game. G2 are even in bad form for G2. They still have the second best early game in the LAC. I think there's so many of the games. If you did the distribution for this, such a huge chunk of the distribution of these games is just a complete steamrolling by G2. Like, no fiddle fucking around. They just completely smash. And I think that combined with Carmine Corp's kind of lack of fight. It's just not the kind of game that they play. I like the under in this contest. So I played an Alt under up the ladder. Under 27 and a half kills at -146 for one unit only because that showed the biggest percentage edge on price. You could play like 25 and a half at even money. I think that's fine too. Next match, Fnatic - 461 on the Money Line - 1 to head, maps at -118 plus 1 and a half is at -1371. It's giant X plus 343 on the Money Line plus 1 and a half maps at -103 and -1 and a half is at +819. Model made this -295 plus 261 by a 7 and a half percent implied delta between my model price and the market price here. You give, again, a qualitative bump for Fnatic and a qualitative bump down for giant X and you kind of get pretty close to the market price here. Really, Fnatic were undefeated. They were running really hot and they were dominating. And then they kind of rendered a buzz ball. Like, G2 really, really messed them up. G2 handed them their first loss. Kind of disrupted the mojo. And then we had like the weird, like the weird week before the esports world cup. And like, they just like, Fnatic lost three games to end the season. Now they had already clinched playoffs. You could make a case they were sandbagging or that these games didn't matter and they didn't care. I'm not going to try to predict yes or no if that was the case. It certainly kind of looks like it to me, but I'm not going to definitively say one time or one way or the other. I do think that was kind of a momentum halter though. Like, sometimes that's a thing. You just kind of limp into the playoffs and you never get your mojo back. That's the thing that can happen. They've had - now Fnatic had to go to the esports world cup. So they've had the shorter downtime here, but I think they got some incredibly good practice at that event. Hopefully, I don't know if they actually did or not. I can't confirm that. I would think that maybe it's possible. We've seen most of the teams that went to that event come back and look okay. Like there hasn't really been much of a hangover. T1 kind of did, I guess. I think it's possible. Fnatic have had issues like this roster of Fnatic. Some of these players have had issues traveling before world championship, et cetera. But Jynix, they've been a feisty underdog sometimes, but mostly just covering kill spreads and stuff like that. They haven't actually been that great of a team. I don't think they're a total dumpster fire, but I think they're pretty clearly in that bottom tier. So we're talking about an elite world class team here against a bottom tier team in Jynix. It's only a best of three. Volatility can help the dogs. They've had extra time to prepare that theoretically imposes some parity on this situation. I could see a case for backing Jynix, maybe taking them on the kill spread. I'm not going to play a side in this match though. I actually like a specific derivative market on this one quite a bit. It's a very, very bizarre trend here, but these two teams have a consistent trend of going over tower total overs. Two-thirds of Fnatic games go to at least a 13th tower. 77.8% of Jynix games have done so as well. League as a whole went over 12.5 towers and 60% of their games this summer. That's a much, much higher rate than both of the Eastern leagues, and that's even higher than the LCSs, which is pretty high at 58% as well. And qualitatively, this checks out for whatever reason the Western teams kind of seem a lot more content to get involved with games that have a lot of ratting going on. For those that don't, it's like an old Dota term for back-doring and trying to create chaos on the map through weird plays and cross-mapping and stuff like that. Not necessarily drafting as such, but that's another added bonus to this is that we're starting to see some split-pushing champions come into the meta a little bit. We've seen a little bit of Gwen, a little bit of Camille. Not that they're purely split-pushing champions, but that they're capable of doing that. I think another aspect for why this has been the case is the Trestana dynamic. I think maybe once that's gone, it's possible that this kind of goes away. So I'm kind of treating this with kid gloves here. I'm like ready to abandon this, but I'm playing just one prop one time for this series. I think you can pick a map either one. It's kind of a bizarre trend, but it kind of makes a little bit of sense. I think Trestana is a big part of this. It's not the only reason, but I think it's playing because we've seen tower totals over. If you even separate that out, it's still going over more frequently than "normal" even in non-Trestana games. I don't know. Maybe there's something to that. Maybe it's just pure coincidence with small sample size bias. I don't know, but I'm going to play the over 12.5 towers at -133 for one unit in this one. Just think, I don't know. I don't think this is like a massive crazy value or anything like that, but it could be. And it could be that just fanatic turns it on and wins. Interestingly, fanatic specifically, their splits, they went over 12.5 towers in all six of their wins. And their only three unders were the three losses that they had, which is maybe kind of interesting and kind of something interesting to look into here. And something I should point out specifically with fanatic in particular is that they've been banned. They didn't play Trestana once this summer, so it's not like they've been cleaning up on it. I was just more generating - I was just talking about that more for the world as a whole, why we're seeing some of that. But interestingly, they haven't actually played a game on Trestana this season, and they've banned Trestana in 56% of their games this season. So, you know, five out of nine or whatever it is. So it's not like it's strictly that causing it specifically for fanatic, which is interesting. But I'm just kind of commenting more on like the overall meta in general for that. Anyway, I played over 12.5 towers minus 133 for one unit in that one. That's going to be it for me, sorry for the short podcast, sorry for the super late thing, but you know, shit happens is what it is. Hopefully we can win some bets on the end of this Eastern slate because it's looking like it might be another bloodbath. Hopefully it won't. We can get ourselves back to positive on this. But anyway, yeah, that's going to be it for me. Everyone have a good night and best of luck.
