The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my Patrons at patreon.com/jalatiLOL. There you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You'll also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jalatiLOL, that's G-E-L-A-T-I-LOL. Good evening everybody, it's currently about 6.30 p.m. Eastern on Friday, July 12th. I was planning on doing a recap of this morning's action. I'll do a quick read through the Patreon part of it. I'm not going to go over every game but I'm running extremely far behind today and actually somewhere to be in a little bit. So I'm going to keep this as brief as possible. Probably going to be reading a lot from the Patreon post because I actually went to a lot of detail on the Patreon post tonight. Basically, I had some card trouble this afternoon. I was running errands and my break started giving me trouble. So I had to stop and go to the mechanic and that took forever and yeah, just a complete mess. But it's going to be fine, it'll be all right, but it just kind of disrupted my usual working hours here. So that's why I'm running a little bit behind. Ended up with a pretty bad bedding day. We had a really, really good time on the spot along stream this morning for those that didn't get a chance to tune in. I'll try to, I just don't have the energy and time to always be doing these but I'll try to get a few more of these in. We have a lot of fun when the jackets roll in and there's these extended slates with four and five Eastern games. It's actually a really, really fun hangout. So anybody that tuned in today, thanks very much Twitch.tv/jolladellawell. I definitely go and hit follow on that so that if you ever see me go live, I'm almost only going live to do sweat along. Sometimes playing good rarely anymore. Anyway, at a bed bedding day, minus 2.918 units, we ended up, we hit on the Hamwa money line, the SK sweep. And we got a bit of a miracle end to get that under four and a half dragons home in that match. We lost everything else today. Top in BLG, sort of the opposite game scripts that I had anticipated with those two, they ended up playing a bunch of slobber knockers. They were what kind of match early games and mostly didn't turn things until later in the game which resulted in longer games. Furex KT was one way traffic for KT in both games. Furex kind of brought it back in game two, KT overstayed, sieging the base and they were kind of live to win game two but not really. They showed some fight but they were never really in control of either game. T1 Hamwa was a hilarious series. It leaves me to bet the under one and a half barons, which is the first time I've bet a baron under in 2024. I don't usually bet baron unders. I usually bet baron over as like a proxy for like playing the underdog or these underdog teams going to be competitive. I sometimes like playing barons over with underdogs that can keep games close and then, you know, there's a huge money line price or something like that but I don't think they're ever going to close the door. So I end up playing, I've played 23 baron props before yesterday before today rather. I've played 23 baron props total across all leagues in 2024. All of them have been overs. This is the first under I played and leave it to me. The first under I played was one of only two games in the LCK in the entire calendar year that have gone to 4+ barons. So, yeah, you can't even be mad at that. It's just funny. I'm not going to go into all the other ones. BDS Mad Lines was just a... That's the kind of series where I was like, you just have to accept that it's, you know, two weeks to prepare, you know, wounded animal backed into a corner is going to fight its way out and Mad Lines did. BDS looked a little off today. Mad Lines really showed out to play. BDS did ultimately get there, so hopefully you played the Money Line parlay instead of the double sweep like I did. But, yeah, SK were pretty clinical. The one game was kind of close, but for the most part they dominated. Anyway, just a bit of housekeeping. I'm going to be doing an LEC podcast later on tonight because I'm short on time. I'm going to have to do it when I get home later. I'll do an LEC podcast later tonight, and I'll be updating the Patreon post later this night. I'll probably be during the Eastern slate this morning. We'll see when we get there. LPO week two, day six. Here we go. Rare at a -146 in the Money Line, -28 maps up, plus 204 plus 1/8 and -130 against Invictus Gaming, plus 123 on the Money Line, plus 1/2 is at -250, the -1/2 is at plus 331. Same lineups for these two. Model made Invictus a small favorite here, but this is pretty close to a pickum, which is what you'd expect with these two teams. For those on the Patreon, I actually started adding, like, what the Model flag this plays for this and then, you know, talking through and making the case for and against them. Let me chop up a little bit why my models had such a relatively low opinion of Rare Adam relative to the market and relative to me. The reason for this, mostly, is because they're a high volatility team, and they look exceptionally good in the games they win because they tend to steamroll. Rare Adam are one of these teams that don't play a lot of median performance games. They either -they're feast or famine. They either do the stomping or they're getting stomped. On the Patreon, you guys can actually see. I do quantitative game grade valuations, mostly on economy. It's not perfect. You still have to use, you know, the art of, you know, the eye test and qualitative analysis for things. But I like to get, like, kind of a snapshot of, like, what a team is. And I do game grades for this, and it's mostly for economics and objective control, but part of the reason I do that is because I like to see which teams are volatile. And, you know, you kind of get a feel for this just watching the games, but, you know, Rare Adam are a very volatile team. They're actually second. There's, like, a top tier of the volatile teams in the LPL, and it's ultra prime and rare Adam, and then there's, like, a whole huge chunk in the next tier there. But the reason I bring this up is because, you know, volatility isn't always a bad thing, but it is a bad thing when you're a favorite. Because, basically, it's not always that either. It's basically, volatility is just measuring how, infrequently, you're landing near, like, a league median type of win, or a type of game. In other words, like, it's a measure of how far from, like, what an average game looks like, and how consistently you're landing outside of that. So, higher volatility grade means that the team is either consistently landing on one margin or the other. It can be 90% of their games are exceptionally bad, 90% of their games are exceptionally good. But it's the further away from the median that you get, the more volatile the team is. And I think it's an interesting way to address things because it's, it lets you, kind of, it lets you think about things like, you know, how you're going to play derivatives. Maybe you play ult kill totals over instead. I actually do volatility for all sorts of stuff. I think it's a good way to, I mean, it's not perfect, but it's a good snapshot for, like, what you're looking at with the team. And I just find it kind of interesting. And really, like, it's kind of cool because it checks out a lot of time. Like, ultra prime and rare Adam are extremely volatile teams. Like, it makes sense. They, they don't play a whole lot of, like, competitive, you know, normal looking games where somebody has a small lead. They're either getting blown out or they're, they're smoking someone, right? So the model doesn't like them because if you look, like, even in their blowout wins, their agnostic economy numbers are not good, which shows a poor, it shows a lack of fundamentals. Like, there's not a good strong foundation there. So, like, if the kills aren't there and they're not getting kills early, they're not a good team. They remind me a lot of mad lines back in the day. Really kind of like K.T. Rooster and the L.C. K.2. Invictus, kind of similar, actually. Invictus are in the top five on the volatility grade two. So, the reason I brought this up is because, like, you have that and then the fact that they don't have that strong foundation and that strong agnostic economy foundation. And that's why the model hasn't liked rare Adam. I know they have these flashy wins, but this team still isn't very good. I like the players on this team. I think they're really, really cool as a big underdog because they can have those spike games. But as a favorite, they're just incredibly inconsistent. That's basically what the volatility rating is saying. They're just an incredibly inconsistent team. And economically inconsistent. And, you know, rare Adam -146, we also have RFEs here with, like, all the teams in this lower division are not much better than a coin flip from one another. I actually like Invictus here. I think this should be basically a coin flip. Invictus have looked a little bit better since you should know he's back in. I think you should know he's probably the best player in this game. You could maybe make a case. You could maybe, maybe, maybe make a case for Vicla or one of the RA guys, but I think you should know he's the best player in this game. I think, you know, my model flag, neutral objective, unders, too, because, again, these two teams tend to steamroll or get steamroll. They play a lot of short games, a lot of one-sided, lopsided games. I prefer the side in this one. I'm playing Invictus Moneyline +123 for one unit, but I think you could play like towers under or barons under or dragons under or game time under. I think we have Team WE - 443 in the Moneyline - 1/2 Mass at -131 against RNG + 340 in the Moneyline +1/2 is that +110, -1/2 is that +950. With WE are studying wayward, Yanshong, Fofo, Abel and Mark, same lineup we saw, and then RNG doing the same one again, Jusuke, Geju, Tanwan, Juan Fang, and I Wandi. Model made WE a -220 +200, actually made the true fair, no Vig was like around 200 as well. The other day I was commenting saying, like, nobody in this bottom conference, like the most lopsided matchup I can come up with is like OMGWE or like WE RNG, and that shouldn't be more than -200. I was just saying that off top of my head. I was not looking at numbers for that, and sure enough, it lands right at 200. So, obviously, I'm going to be looking toward the RNG side of things. I know the head of Ahmed-inducing performance last time out. I know they're offside in this contest. I know it's gross. WE are an interesting team. Like, this match is really going to put my -nobody in the bottom conference is that much better than anybody else thesis to the test. You know, like, I think, like, WE look pretty clearly like the top dog in this conference right now. They're like a better version of LGD. They should probably be in the upper conference, but they're also a pretty one-dimensional team. And all these roster moves they've made, I kind of thought they were going to have a different identity moving forward, and it turns out they just haven't yet. And maybe that all eventually happened, but so far, they haven't changed really. They grayed out as a strong team. They have good agnostic economy. They have a low amount of games with a significant deficit, which is generally a good formula for winning against bad teams. But they're not exactly dominating teams either, and they're in a lot of games that are, like, coin-flippy through 20 minutes. They just had pretty good late-game decision-making. We can take advantage of that, though. Instead of playing the side in this one, I'm actually going to, like, the side itself, as I mentioned before, made this, like, -220 for WE, showed value on RNG. That's a lot of value on RNG. But I think the best way to play this is to attack the kind of games that W liked to consistently play. Like I said, they haven't really changed their identity. Right now, this looks like a slam dunk kill total under spot. Team WE are averaging around a 20.8 combined kills per game and just 0.643 combined kills per minute. This is a composite number using a blend of full season with more weight on recent games. It's not the full season average. WE are completely content to trade cross-map. They slow the game to a crawl. They play ball control and defense style League of Legends, right? The lower conference hasn't been kind of under, because a lot of these teams absolutely suck at closing out games. We got wrecked by one today, and that EDG, OMG, we had the under-27 hit kills. There were, like, 2 kills through 18 minutes in that game, and there was, like, 25 in the next, like, 7 minutes or something. God, that was a frustrating swab. Anyway, what's interesting here is, with that low over projection, by the way, RNG are well under the League, averaging combined kills per minute and combined kills per game as well. So, this is a slam dunk under spot. The totals are set at, like, 26 and a half in this. I projected 23.2, like, for a kill projection. Right? That's extremely low. And, like, even if you, even if you use the full season sample for WE, it's actually, it only gets to, like, 24 and a half. It's not that much different. So, this is a slam dunk under spot, but better than the under, I think I'm going to play kill spreads in this one. I think kill spreads are the best way to kind of get equity in all aspects here. I want a piece of RNG on the side. I know this team sucks, but, like, there's value on the side via the model, right? There's value on the kill total under via the model, right? You're getting a big kill spread, eight and a half kills, plus eight and a half kills here. WE have an average margin of victory of 6.63 kills this season. RNG have an average margin of its feet of 6.47 kills per minute, or average margin of 6.47 kills, sorry. We're getting an eight and a half kill spread, which is much bigger than both of those. We're getting a low, low total. We're getting a projection that projects, like, a very, very low total as well. This is essentially similar to, like, a minus 13 and a half point NFL team. NFL favorite with, like, a total, like, a point total of, like, 34 and a half. Very, very thin margin for the favorite. Any mistake there is bad, right? The other thing to consider here is WE. The early game is actually below league average. They have a below league average early game, so, as, you know, RNGs hasn't been great, but WE play, like I said, play a lot of these games where it's a coin flip going into 20 minutes, and if RNG can jump out on them, I love the pulsate and half kills. You know, team WE, a lot of team WE's games end up being, like, exceptionally low scoring. Like, you know, we're talking, like, you know, 10 kills, you know, 12 kills a game. Like, it's not very, it's not a lot going on. In fact, like, if you just look at, like, they're, like, look at, like, I'm just looking at all of WE's wins for this entire season. By the way, including RNG back in, like, week, the RNG match that they played back in week one was a long time ago, was actually their, their most lopsided series besides that first game against LGD. So, they had, you know, they won by 10 and 13 the first time out, which is why we're getting this priced. Those, those series, it was 10 to 1 in game 1, 13 to 6 in game 2, right? I think RNG will probably be a little bit better. They've looked a little bit better, not in their last match, but in general, I think, then they did the beginning of the season. Um, not, I don't think this team is good by any means, but eight and a half is a big kill spread for any team in this lower conference to be covering. And, you know, like, you look at, like, the margin of victory in the last, like, five wins that, that WE've had, it was eight, five, four, three, and two. So, yeah, I don't, I think it's just, like, the best way to attack both angles. Like, you get exposure to the under, by taking the plus eight and a half, you get exposure to the RNG side, which showed a lot of value here, which is, you know, you're getting exposure that way. And you're getting exposure to attacking WE's lack of strong and potent early game, which is a way, another way to play things. So, you're getting, like, three different ways of exposure to all the things I want to play in this, in one bet. So, I like the, uh, map one RNG plus eight and a half kills at minus one eleven for one unit. And I played map two plus eight and a half kills at minus one ten for one unit as well. Next up, way by gaining plus one twenty six in the money line, plus one it has a minus two, forty four minus one and a half is plus three thirty six against ninjas and pajamas minus one fifty on the money line, minus one and a half is at plus one ninety nine. Same lineups for these two. Model made this slightly closer, but still pretty close to a pickum. Model really liked the under four and a half dragons, time total unders, kill total unders, barren unders, and it slightly leaned away, away both sides, like I said. This is one of those, I hate both these teams. This is a disgusting matchup. Like, nothing in this match would surprise me. Like, seeing three absolute clown fiesta gains wouldn't shock me. Seeing, you know, one of these teams completely steamroll the other one in under fifty minutes total wouldn't surprise me. Um, it's just really tough to get a gauge on both these teams because they're macros so, so bad. And, you know, they have a ton of talent, but their macro is so terrible that, and they just make really, really shitty decisions. This is essentially like two himbo teams playing against each other. These guys are, like, both these teams are absolute idiots. They're, they're so, so stupid sometimes, but they're just immensely talented. And, you know, this is probably, weibo have side choice. I don't think, like, neither of these teams can really be trusted as a favor. They're both teams that you want to back as a dog. Weibo might be turning the corner here. It kind of seems that way. I don't know. What do you guys think? If you think that they're turning the corner, then this is absolutely a weibo bet. They have side choice. This is a good number. It's a good price relative to model. Yeah, I don't know. I think hold your nose and play Weibo. I know, I know it's gross, but model made this pretty close. These two teams are basically the same exact team. One of them has had better results because they didn't have the shitty start to the summer. But, like, if you look under the hood, these two are both extremely volatile. They both play the same kind of games. They're both explosive early game and then roll over and die late game. Like, they either get blown out. Like, this is another one. These are two volatile teams, right? They're also up on that volatility chart I posted on the Patreon. They have a lot of significant leads and a lot of significant deficits and not a whole lot in the middle. So, I would expect these are going to be probably lopsided games. But, like I said, nothing would surprise me. Model lights lopsided games as an angle, more or less. These could end up being Bonanzas because these two throw back and forth all the time. It wouldn't shock me, but I am going to take a stab on the under 4.5 Dragons in map one and the Weibo Moneyline here. So, Weibo Moneyline plus 126 for one unit. Map one under 4.5 Dragons plus 120 for one unit. LCK week four, day four, an auction red force minus 140 on the Moneyline. Minus one hit maps at plus 210 plus one and a half set minus 412 against OK. Breon savings bank plus 115 on the Moneyline. Plus one and a half set minus 265 minus one and a half set plus 311. I know I'm doing this out of order. I apologize. I'm just reading through the Patreon. Model made this a little bit closer. Nokshim a very slight favorite, but not enough to warrant really a play. Showed very, very strong edges on neutral objective under 4.5 Dragons under 4.5 Towers. And Breon first blood, which is actually kind of an interesting one. I'm not going to end up playing anything. Both these teams get steam a lot because they're not very good. If you look at how their games go against other weaker teams like, you know, punching at their own weight class, there's not as much of a lean toward the unders in those games. It's not enough to play the overs either, but it was like more in line with price. So, I don't know, I would lean to the Nokshim side for this. I would lean Breon first blood is kind of an interesting one. I have like a 70-something percent first blood rate if I remember right. It's crazy, but I'm not ultimately going to play anything. I think this is an interesting DFS match because these two teams have had a few. Like the projection for this is 27.1 combined kills per game. The frequency wasn't like there enough for me to kind of consider playing an over or an under, but altovers are kind of interesting. I could see one or two of these games going absolutely nuclear. These two teams have had a couple outlier performances. They do have some combined kill volatility going on with these two. No action for me in this one. Just a lean to like an old kill total over. Maybe a lean to Breon first blood. Next one's a banger. We have Gen G minus 533 on the winning line. Minus 1/2, Minus 1/35 against D plus Kia plus 3/87 on the winning line. Plus 1/2, that plus 1/11. Minus 1/2 is that plus 953. Model made Gen G just a minus 158 favorite to Danwan's plus or D plus is plus 143. Model really likes D plus here, likes D plus first blood. This is kind of a tough one. I've been getting absolutely murdered by two frequently going against these elite teams across the globe. And I know that I'm aware of it and I know that there's always going to show value on them, but you have to give a bump to these elite teams. Gen G, this team's a wagon. They look like they're the best team in the world right now. They should be your favorite to win the world championship right now. They're dominating. They haven't lost a game domestically since the spring finals. That's crazy. They're 14 and 0 right now. Or, I think they're 14 and 0, yeah. Here's the thing. As good as Gen G have been, D plus have looked excellent this summer too. D plus have also forced a game 3 against Gen G both the times they faced them in 2024 back in spring. And I think D plus are in better form now than they were in spring. So they were plus 249 and plus 478 in those matches. This time they're plus 387. A little bit of respect shown since the last time, but D plus have taken them to 3 both times. I think that's the angle here. I've been getting murdered going against the favorites here. I think I bet D plus both times to get a map both times last time or that they faced Gen G this season. I'm going to change this up a little bit. I'm going to play a kill spread here. I think playing D plus plus one and a half maps is actually totally fine. Plus 111 and plus one and a half maps. My model made this much closer to 60% or better outcome for that to happen. I'm maybe not that bullish, but I do think it's probably 55%, something like that. D plus is good and they're explosive. Let's see, the other angle here. So I'm going to end up playing a kill spread here. Map one, D plus plus eight and a half kills. It might as 122 for one unit. Gen G average margin of victory of 8.09 kills. D plus average margin of defeat of 5.6 kills this summer. Model also projected this rate around that 24 to 25 kill band very frequently. These two rarely eclipse that. They're very consistent that way. Gen G just played a whole lot of 15 to 8 grind you out. But we're constrict due to death kind of games. I think D plus are one live to win one or two maps outright. The early game is good enough that they can get the jump on Gen G. But Gen G are maybe the hardest team on earth to close a game out against. So I think I prefer playing a kill spread to the map spread. I played the map spread last time around, but we've collected a lot more on these teams. I'm mostly just being a total wimp here, I'll be honest with you guys. I'm just being getting crush fading the good teams. And I probably should have faded BDS today, but that's a different note. I've been getting crush fading the good teams. So I'm going to kind of wimp out here and play the kill spread instead of the plus one and a half maps. But I do think both show a lot of value. That's going to be it for me. I'll be back later on tonight with an LAC show. Best of luck and I will see you then. And don't forget, this is an early lock. It's 2am Eastern for the first LCK match.
