The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my Patrons at patreon.com/jalatiLOL. There, you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You'll also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jalatiLOL, that's G-E-L-A-T-I-LOL. Good evening, everybody. It's currently about 4 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, my dudes. July 10th, 2024. Quick recap from this morning. We only had one position on in both leagues combined, and it was Nongshim + 1.5 maps that did not get there. But I would argue it should. I guess we'll start with that match just here. So the first game in this was pretty much one-way traffic. KT kind of stalled out in the mid game a little bit. It looked like this was going to be an utter domination. They had more than a 3,000 gold lead in the first 12 minutes of this game. I think it was 12 minutes, maybe 13 minutes. I know it was pretty early. They didn't really do anything with that for the next 10 minutes, which is bizarre. Like Nongshim actually, I don't think this is necessarily a great job from Nongshim stabilizing. It kind of was. It was more just KT kind of fiddle-fucking around a little bit, and not really doing what they were supposed to to advance the game state. They eventually did turn things, and they were in no particular rush. They had a pretty decent... They had the Azir on their end, but they would have been outscaled in this game. They were against Sena and Hui, so it's possible they would have been outscaled in this game, and it's a little bizarre to me that they didn't play more aggressively to advance the game state. The second game was kind of like back and forth for the first 25 minutes of this game. A little less than 25 minutes, I guess. It was pretty back and forth, and then Nongshim looked like they turned the corner and were going to blow this game open, and then threw it all the way back. Nongshim were probably like 90% to win this game. I don't think it was an egregious, egregious throw, but it was pretty bad. Yeah, probably like 85-90% to win this game, and it didn't get there, which sucks for R+1.5 maps, but it's the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. We'll stay in the LCK here. The other LCK match was T1 against Breon. Man, oh man, this was a freaking clown. So the thesis yesterday was T1 played on Sunday. They had to stay afterwards for all the media stuff. They didn't get home until I'm assuming very, very late. They lost all the hours from the jet lag, and then probably took the next day off and then had a one-day turnaround to face Breon. After the first game in this series, it didn't look like there was any jet lag whatsoever. This was an utter shell-lacking, like a 23-minute beatdown, right? The second game in this series was the opposite. It was really, really close, really competitive through the first 20 minutes, and then Breon turned a couple team fights and eventually won. I kept waiting for the no way. Breon, they're going to find a way to screw this up. They're going to find a way to screw this up, and they didn't. They played really, really well. And then in the third game, T1 kind of blew out, like, for them a pretty good lead, and T1 are absolutely nails with a lead, but man-oh-man, like, they blew out almost like, it was like a four and a half thousand gold lead, right, in the first 15 minutes of this game. Kind of threw it back. Breon, Breon were fighting today, man. Breon looked very, very good relative to Breon. They were never really, I don't think they were going to ever win this third game. The second one was impressive, but I don't think they were really going to win the third game, but they showed some fight, which is something that this team has just been severely lacking for really Shinzoom T left. Like, he was kind of the heart and soul of this team, and they just really haven't shown any kind of, you know, Khutzpah, so to speak. Like, they just haven't shown any balls. Like, there's no, this team has no killer instinct, but today they showed some, and, you know, yeah, it took a jet lag T1, but at least it was a sign of life from Breon, so I guess that's a positive moving forward. I'm glad I stayed away from this one, but it was bizarre how this broke down, because normally you would think the jet lag game would be the first one, but I don't know. It was a good showing from Breon today, relative to Breon. Still not good, but it was relative to them, a good showing. Thunder Talk, IG, one-way traffic for Thunder Talking Game 1, clinical, clinical win. Game 2, IG had, like, a kind of a small advantage. I kind of liked their comp. The later this game went too. Thunder Talk played like the Zirer, or they played like the Zirer jungle, the head grog is top, and they had double AD carry for spacing, right? But, like, they're AD carry, they had Azrael for range, but, like, I liked IG's draft going with, like, the split push, and then Ziggs and Jace here, because, like, TT didn't really have a super, like, solid engage against super long-range carries, so they could just poke, and poke, and poke, and let, you know, let you should know me side lane and everything. But, uh, it kind of just, like, they didn't understand their win condition, and they just started taking 5v5s and, like, not doing good jobs calling, like, they didn't do a good job, like, calling out how to take the fights, right? They should have been creating flank opportunities, and they were trying, and, really, what they were doing was just, like, forcing this 5v5 head on over and over again, and that's not what worked. So, I think, I liked Invictus' draft in this game, too. They probably should have won this game, too, but they never really had a massive lead or anything to, like, really solidify that I think they were, like, 90 plus percent, but just on draft alone, they were probably, like, 60-40 to win this, and then just kind of did what bad teams do and didn't understand what their win caught. They didn't follow the instructions, and Thunder Talk were glad to pick up the pieces there. I'm not, uh, I guess, you know, it was kind of impressive from Thunder Talk that they got that home, because they had a, that was kind of a tough comp to navigate, and they just did a good job with it. They, I guess, did a good job luring. I think it was more on forced errors from Invictus than good things from Thunder Talk, but the first game was also decisive win, so props to them. LNG Weibo, two to one win for LNG, pretty close through the first 20 minutes or so in the first game, and then eventually they turned this and won, you know, like, it was one-way traffic after that. Not much to say there. Weibo was one-way traffic in the second game, not much to say on that one. The third game, Weibo probably should have won. Uh, they had, I don't know, this was like a Tristana game. Like, this, uh, god, this champion. I don't even think she's broken. I just think it's such an easy decision to be able to ban this. Like, I don't think it's necessarily insanely broken, like I said, compared to, like, you know, certain new release champions and stuff like that, but there's, it's just, it puts so much pressure on you that you don't need to deal with, and I think she's way more threatening than other bans that are happening right now. But I guess these teams have enough scrim data and, you know, maybe on the asshole here, because every, it seems like every team across the world is just totally okay with it. Next patch, I think she's just going to be perma-band. Um, Corky's getting nerfed, so people aren't going to be able to handshake Corky Trist anymore, so I think Trist is going to find her way onto the 100% band for next patch, so that can't come soon enough. Anyway, LNG, Waybo. Game three, Waybo had like a three and a half thousand gold lead around the 20-minute mark in this one, and looked well on their way to winning this. They had a double AD carry that Cassante recon. The Nidalee jungle doesn't scale exceptionally well, but what double AD carry it does. Broke, like, buffing a Trist with primal surges and seeing. I'm sorry, that was the LNG setup, but they had, they had really good scaling there. Waybo played more like an AoE Wambo combo setup. Obviously had the Corky, Brand Jungle, Ziggs, a lot of AP damage, but they had the Nara to kind of offset that. Um, so Waybo actually got ahead in this, and then just had a, really a couple errors setting up for the first Baron, and, you know, in that setup got picked off and LNG flipped it, and, you know, this turned into one-way traffic from there. Waybo, still don't know what to think of this team. I'm not entirely sure where we're at there, but LNG, like I said, they're like kind of good, not great, but the whole middle, like, that whole like bottom half of the upper conference in the LPL is like good, not great teams, so I don't know, we'll see how this goes. Still don't have a really good read on Waybo. Let's move on to the Thursday LPL and LCK slate just heads up for people. The LEC is starting back up again on Friday. Play also will be starting then. I'll have that on tomorrow's post and Patreon podcast and Patreon post as well. LCS will be starting back up on Saturday. Anyway, LPL week two day four ultra prime plus 186 on the Moneyline, or plus one ahead maps at minus 161, the sweep is at plus 507 against rare atom minus 226 on the Moneyline, minus one ahead maps at plus 135, plus one ahead is that minus 711. No lineup changes for either of these two. Chingtian, hacker, Juekai, Dogger, Niket, Shausu, Shao-Hao, Vikla, Asim, and Joy for rare atom. Model made this plus 121, rare atom minus 132. Makes me absolutely sick to my stomach to do this, especially because I had a relatively moderate, you know, both thesis for rare atom going into this stage of the split. But I think this is probably way too far the other direction in terms of price. Like, you guys know I can't stand this ultra prime team. I think they're overrated. I kind of think they're shit. And we're coming off of a match where rare atom looked really, really good against, you know, what I think is going to be one of the other good teams in this conference that are trying to get into the playoffs. In Thunder Talk. But I think 70% implied win rate for rare atom in a match where they're offside is just kind of, that's a bridge too far for me. You guys know I generally like this rare atom team, but I don't like them as big favorites. I think this is a bridge too far. Classic hold your nose special here. I played ultra prime plus one and a half maps at minus 161 for one unit. I think this plus one and a half should probably be north of minus 200. Yeah, this offside, this is a tough ask. If you prefer, you can play the map one kill spread for ultra prime. It's only six and a half. Second match ninjas and pajamas plus 131 on the money line. Plus one and a half maps at minus 234. Minus one and a half is at plus 352 against anyone's legend. Minus 157 on the money line. Minus one and a half is at plus 192. Plus one and a half is at minus 461. Same lineups for both these teams. Model B and NIP, a bigger dog plus 230 to AL's minus 256. Once again, the model suggesting that I go with anyone's legend is a very, very cheap, under-causted favorite here. Model is essentially suggesting that the market is in denial about this team actually being good. I actually tend to agree with that. You know, I'm a little bit skeptical still. It's still not a huge sample size, but anyone's legend have more or less beaten everything we've put in front of them besides that weird webo series. So at this point, it's tough to kind of deny that they're good. It's just like whether or not they're elite. I think they might be. I was maybe a little bit slow on this, but clearly the market is much slower than I am. So I'm not going to break the bank on this because I have enough respect for NIP's individual, you know, game ceiling. This is a team that can play very, very well on a specific game. They still have a lead at 20 minutes and more than 71% of their games. They have a north of a 70% closing rate and they have a significant lead at 20 and 40, just under 43% of their games. So I have enough respect for NIP in that regard. They are still a respectable team, even though I think their macro is pure dog shit. But, I mean, anyone's legend, guys, this is like, their numbers are world-class. And I know they played against a group in the placement stage that absolutely sucked and it's kind of inflating things a bit. But this is a team that's approaching an 1800 agnostic goal per minute. They have a plus 170 agnostic goal differential per minute, which is like third best in the world right now, which is insane. You know, they have 100% closing rate this summer. They have a lead at 20 minutes in almost 70% of their games. They have a significant lead in more than 54% of their games, which is insane. And they rarely have deficits. There's not really much else to really argue with about this team. It's just a matter of how strong you think their competition is. But ultimately, what do we expect good teams, elite teams to do is to just smash everybody in front of them and that's what they've been doing. This is a little weird, but I think the market is just like, like I said, in denial about the fact that anyone's legend is actually good. And, you know, I thought I was the slow adapter with the market is just really, really awful on this, I think. I'm not going to break the bank because I think NIP are pretty good, but I'm playing anyone's legend money line. They are offside, so I like the money line over the sweep here. Anyone's legend money line minus 157 for one unit. I'm also going to believe the map two under four and a half dragons at minus 131 for one unit. You can pick map one over two for this one. These two teams eclipse that total in just 27.3% and 33.3% respectively. And the implied total here is like, or the implied rate is, oh, I have this backwards on the Patreon post, I have to fix this. The implied rate is like 43.3%. So about a double digit market edge there. Probably, you know, you got to adjust that a little bit because if you think these games are going to be competitive, that's fine. These two teams have kind of like, it's been utter stomps one way or the other in most of their games. So expect these to be, this is probably going to be two or three lopsided games. I doubt we'll see a close one. It's possible, but I doubt it. It's possible. I think if we see a close one, it'll probably be ninjas in pajamas getting a lead and throwing it. Would be my guess, but we'll say that's it for that one. Moving on to the LCK, week four, day two, D plus key, minus eight forty nine on the money line, minus one to head maps at minus one eighty against D. RX plus five sixty six on the money line, plus one head maps at plus one forty seven, and the underdog sweep is at plus one thousand two hundred and thirty eight. Model made this shorter, obviously has a tough time pricing outlier bad and good teams. DRX or toward the bottom of that, made this like minus four hundred fair, or it was like, I think it was like minus three eighty fair if I remember correctly, but I don't have that directly in front of me. To me, this is DRX or pass. I'm not playing this. This is kind of a prohibitive price on the favorite here. Don't overpay for D plus Kia. That said, especially because like D plus Kia can be a little bit shaky at times. They kind of take games off once in a while, against the weaker teams. I don't say take games off, they just like don't look as focused. They've looked really good so far this summer. We haven't seen many of those, but I think, and the other thing is like unlike Gen G and T1, this isn't a team that traveled or anything like that. But we do have like the week off, like parody angle, where you know, extra prep time tends to help underdogs more than favorites. That's why you use tend to see more of that in the beginning of the season. Also just mispricing, but I don't know, this DRX team is pretty bad. I don't know if they're quite as bad as Breon, but Breon showed some life today and maybe you can kind of like transitive property that to the other bad teams showing some life tomorrow. But triple digit agnostic, like triple digit negative agnostic goal differential per minute. They haven't had a significant lead to 20 minutes yet in 2024 or in the 2024 summer. They've only really had the one quality win, which was that one way traffic utter domination in their first game of the season. I think it was the first game of the second series, maybe. I forget who it was. I think it's Kwongdung or Nongshim. I forget, but they had like that one really, really clean, good game and that's it. This team has a significant deficit at 20 and 42% of their games. They trail at 20 minutes in like almost 74% of their games. Like this is, DRX or struggle bussing. And I think it's possible that we're looking at, I don't know, I think all three of the bottom tier teams are all pretty bad. I think fear X is maybe a cut above the other tube or the other three, but... And D+ have looked pretty good. So like, I don't want to get involved with DRX. DRX are bad enough that I don't have the stomach to go with them. I didn't have the stomach for beer in this morning either. So if you think that there's some kind of angle here like that with the week off helping the underdog teams, you're getting a good price for it. I wouldn't fault you for taking a shot. You can get plus nine and a half kills. You can play plus one and a half maps or plus one forty seven. I think those are totally fine. If you want to play the situational spot more, I'm just not going to get involved on the side on this one. I do, however, like the under four and a half dragons at minus 207 for one unit. DRX have an average game time of 20, just over 29 minutes this season. They have a 27.66 minute average game time in losses, which is extremely low. They're getting smoked in losses. D+ are on the opposite end of the spectrum. They tend to win slow. But usually neutral objective unders are a look against DRX. All three towers, dragons and Baron unders showed a double digit edge on market price. Even though that market price is all north of minus 200, biggest percentage edge was on the under four and a half dragons for me. I'll be playing that one again. It's the second time I've played that today. Just 10.5% of DRX games go to a fifth dragon and only 26.67% of D+ games go to a fifth dragon. I know it's minus 200 or minus 207, but we're talking about something that's still a pretty decently sized edge on market here. I like the under four and a half map dragons. I would play just one map on that. You can play two. This is a big enough edge that I probably should play two, but I'm just going to play one. I picked map one under four and a half dragons minus 207 for one unit. Second LCK game, the Kuangdong freaks plus 674 on the money line plus one to head maps at plus 167. Minus one to head is that plus 1419 against Gen G minus 1062 on the money line. Minus one to head maps is that minus 205. Model made Kuangdong just a plus 139 favorite to Gen G minus 152 making this price way off compared to the models price. Gen G might not have quite the same level of jet lag that we, you know, the T1 had because they were eliminated much earlier in the tournament. I'm not actually 100% sure if they came back or if they stayed screaming people. I'm pretty sure they stayed in the screen people for a little while, but they probably could have arranged their travel schedule to be a little bit more with it. That said, still could be jet lagged. It was still less than a week ago and, you know, it takes a while for those effects to settle out sometimes, especially for teams that don't travel all that often. It's possible that we see a little bit of a hiccup here. It's not the Gen G looked bad at the EWC or anything like that. It's just they ran into a buzz, so all the top was playing super well. I think it's possible. You see that, but the fact of the matter is like I would have played this price at, yeah, I would have played this at price even without factoring in the EWC stuff. T1 were lucky in that they got a softball in Ocabrian for their first match back from EWC. Gen G are not as lucky. Longdong is like a good team. They're a legitimately good team. They've been excellent this summer. They've improved. They're on an upward trajectory. The trend is going up here. They've looked good. They look improved. They look a lot more disciplined. They look confident. This is a team. I mean, they have a 1,700 plus agnostic gold per minute. They have almost a triple digit agnostic gold differential per minute. They're relatively strong early game sequences. Their win loss analysis suggests that this is a legitimate team. This isn't like a fraudulent situation here. I don't think obviously like Gen G or I still think Gen G is the best team in the world, even with the hiccup here at EWC, but like they should be favorites. I just think this is way, way too heavy handed. I just don't think they're 90% to win a match against another good team. I know they're very, very good, but Kwangdong is legitimately good. They're going to be a playoff team. Kwangdong have looked competitive against the elite teams already this season. That was in spring. They look even better now. I just think this price is a little too disrespectful to Kwangdong. I'm going to play some Kwangdong plus 1.5 maps at +167 for one unit. I'm also going to play the map 1 over 23.5 kills at -116 for one unit. These are relatively low totals. If you think the jet lag effect is a thing, it could end up manifesting in a similar way to the T1 series where you saw it just kind of like mental lapses create situations where it's just kind of like let's flip it. Maybe you don't see as quite a clean as clean a victory from Gen G. Obviously Gen G are like an under team through and through because they are very, very controlled methodical, disciplined as a team in general and that kind of leads towards unders for them. That said, if there's going to be a spot where they kind of like are a little out of it and maybe out of character, this will be it. I also think kill total overs are generally a good look when you have good teams playing against each other and I have a lot of respect for Kwangdong freaks. I don't know if they're quite like elite. I don't think they're T1 or Gen G or Hanwok quite yet, but their numbers say that they're right there. I generally was very optimistic about this lineup going into the 2024 season and it's taken them a little bit of time to get there, but they've looked very, very good. Generally you take overs when good LCK teams are playing each other and under is when it's a good team versus a bad team. We've got that macro head when working in our favor as well. Model also suggested this as a play more based on frequency. Combine these two are getting over 23.5 in about 59% of their games and my actual projection for me was 24.7 was my kill projection here. That's a blended time implied total, book odds weighted, model rating weighted. Basically saying there's going to be a more competitive game. On that front you could also opt to take a kill spread with Kwangdong. I'm opting to go right for just the +1.5 maps. I think they can get one here, but you could also take kill spreads if you prefer that mode. You can get +9.5. I'm actually kind of talking myself into a +9.5 here. I think this is going to be a lot more competitive. Yeah, you know what? I'm not going to double stake against good teams. I'm trying not to do that anymore. I'm going to leave the +1.5 maps. I think it's pretty even. You could split stake both +9.5 kills. I think they could both get there. You could pick a map and play +9.5. I think that's probably a similar edge, but Kwangdong can get one here if there's going to be a spot to get one. I think it's here. I don't know. The +9.5 kills might be slightly better in hindsight. Looking at this now, I'm basically reading off my Patreon post right now, and I'm kind of talking myself into a +9.5 kills, but I already bet the +1.5 maps and I don't want to double down against a good team. Yeah, maybe... The thing is you'd have to pick a map too. I would play map 1 +9.5 kills if you're going to play one of them, but I might end up coming back to this later. I might have just made a mistake. Live on air. We'll see. Anyway, that's going to be it for me, gang. I will see you all tomorrow.
