The League of Legends Betting Podcast
Monday, July 8th, 2024 - LPL
Recorded on: Sunday, July 7th over course of the morning various times
Recap 0:26
LPL Slate 1:22
You can find more, exclusive content to go along with this show on My Patreon.
My Twitter/X is @GelatiLOL
P&L Sheet for 2024 can be found here and pinned to the top of my Twitter.
The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my patrons at patreon.com/jilladellll. There you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You also get to support your creators more directly. Patreon.com/jilladell. That's G-E-L-A-T-I-L-O-L. Good afternoon, everybody. Well, afternoon, I guess whenever you're listening to this, I'm recording this over the course of early, early Sunday morning, and we'll probably be releasing it in the afternoon. So if things sound a little bit out of order, that's why. LPL from this morning. We had Invictus Gaming versus Ultra Prime. First game of this series, Ultra Prime probably should have won. They weren't up huge. They were up like 3K, around 25-minute mark, had to control the game, and then this one kind of got off the rails. Invictus was able to win a couple fights and flip it. Game 2 was one-way traffic for Invictus. Second series was LNG vs Ninjas and Pajamas. LNG win two decisive clean stompings outright in that one. So when I'm recording this, I haven't watched the Sports World Cup yet, but hopefully we get that one home. And I'll talk more about that one on tomorrow's post. We're gaming plus 120 on the Money Line, plus 1-2-54, minus 1-2-3-23 against Team WWE, minus 143 on the Money Line, minus 1-2-7, plus 1-2-7, minus 4-18. Lineups, solo kill, JJ, cry and leave a wink for EDG. WWE are switching things up. Wayward, Jan Sheng, Fafo, Abel, and Mark, a new jungler here for Team WWE. Model made this close to a pickum, but EDG a very short favor, so it has the rolling team favor in this contest. You know, EDG had been a bit of a frustrating team this season. They've looked significantly improved and they actually looked decent for like the first two weeks there, and then they kind of just turned back into a pumpkin, costing me some coin in the process. It's been a very frustrating handicap just in general. Partially just because of how they're playing, but they went from looking like a very disciplined team, even if they weren't blowing at huge gold leads to a team that looks completely sloppy the last like in that third week there. So it's kind of a tough one here. WWE have been playing kind of the same game that they were playing, but during the off season between the placement stage in this, they picked up Abel and they're now starting a new jungler. So like, I don't know if they're just like trying to go in a different direction or if they're going to end up being the same team, even though they're trying to, you know, shift up the person all a little bit. So it's kind of hard to figure out what's going on. Tough to get a read on what WWE are, really tough to get a read on either of these teams. So both teams are flawed. WWE have trouble closing games. They only have a 42.9% closing rate and they only lead in half their games. EDG only lead in 37 and half percent of their games, but they do close pretty well when they do get it with the two thirds closing rate. Neither of these teams has had many significant leads. They both struggle to get early leads, you know, really by design. They both tend to play slower, more methodical, more controlled games. The thing is though, like, if you're not getting leads with any kind of, like, you don't need to get huge leads with any kind of consistency, but if you're not getting any kind of leads or getting big leads more than literally, literally we have one game with a big lead this entire season, EDG don't have any. So if you're never actually getting leads, even if it's not as often as, like, the elite early game teams, it's fine. But if you're not getting leads very often at all, then it becomes a problem because you're just playing from a neutral game state most of the time, and you're not putting yourself in an advantageous situation. So, like, you can pick scaling and you can set yourself up in draft all you want, but if you come one dimensional team, see that coming and they can plan for it. So, kind of tough to get a read on these two teams. Like, I thought these two might actually be pretty good and then they kind of juked me and I thought that they weren't. Model makes this close to a coin flip. W are starting a new jungler. I'm still sussed out about the able pickup in general. I think this is kind of a hold your nose special on EDG. I think they're getting enough of a value here to, this cross is my threshold for worth a play. I got +124 over a nitrogen. So, I played EDG Moneyline +124 for one unit. I mostly just think this should be a coin flip and EDG, you know, have side choice also as an added bump to this. Yeah, I don't know. I think it's EDG or pass and I think it's enough of a position to take some EDG here. I don't like it, but again, to hold your nose special, it doesn't have to be pretty. Second match tomorrow, LGD Gaming +195 on the Moneyline. Plus one, I have -156 minus one and a half plus 525 against anyone's legend minus 238 on the Moneyline. minus one, I have a plus 131. Plus one, I have some minus 742. Same starting line that's for these two. Birdo Media, Hachao, Xiaoye, Xinzhou, Ale, Krakow, Shanks, Hope and Kyle for anyone's legend. Model made this plus 387 minus 443. So, a lot of value on anyone's legend. Very rare that you get value on favorites like this. Showed value on anyone's legend in the last match too. Look, I'm still as skeptical as everybody else's on anyone's legend. I still don't know if it was just that they were beating up on a soft group. And I'm probably the most bullish person anyone knows on LGD, not because I think they're that good, but because they're just always underrated and they're a good money making team. They're the new rare atom from like, they're like the new COVID era rare atom where like they were just this mid table team that everyone thought sucked because they had a bunch of no name players or whatever, but they actually were pretty good and were always undervalued. So you just always got great prices on them. LGD are kind of that, but I think this is one of the few times that I'm going to be going against LGD and that hasn't happened very often, but I think this is one of the few times where - Look, I'm the skeptical about anyone's legend as anybody else's, but like the fact is like they've been dominant this season and especially against teams that are not like the elite teams. I don't think LGD and elite team, even if I do think they're pretty good. I think this should probably be much bigger favorites. LGD do have side choice, so you have to knock down anyone's legend a bit. If you have general skepticism about anyone's legend like I do, you have to knock them down a bit. But anyone's legend have been super clean with the lead. They have 100% closing rate and LGD, while they're pretty good at keeping games close, generally have not been giving team - or they've generally been kind of like not getting ahead in games. They have only one game with a significant lead this season and they only have a lead with 20 minutes of any size in 35.7% of their games. Anyone's legend has been blowing games out early, been dominant, I've been super disciplined in closing. I think the way LGD tend to attack is to win these coin flip kind of games with better scaling and team fighting. Anyone's legend are just going to blow an open in the early game. I actually am going to play anyone's legend on the money line here. I don't usually like playing the sweep off side. It's just harder, but I like the money line position here. If you choose to, you can just play like map 2, which is like when anyone's legend is going to have a side choice to play map 2 money line. If you choose to or map 2 kill spread, something like that, but I'm just going to play the money line here. I think -238 is a good price for anyone's legend. Back-to-back times, I'm backing anyone's legend is a favorite. I think probably looking at a team that's somehow still underrated, but it kind of makes sense with the skepticism that everyone has. I normally don't like trying to get ahead of teams like that, but like model shows value, and I think specifically the way LGD plays there's a good chance they're just going to get blown out in these games. I might have to -238. Anyone's legend money line one unit. Still think it's most likely they sweep, but I'm playing the money line instead here, just in case they get jumped in game one. Second, I'm not playing - I don't have any derivatives as of yet. Patreon subscribers, if I have anything, I'll end up posting an update to that post probably early on Monday morning. Realistically, because the markets for these aren't really up yet, so keep an eye on that. I might end up playing some unders and stuff in some of these, but we'll see. That's going to be it for me. Everyone have a good one.
