The League of Legends Betting Podcast
Sunday, July 7th, 2024 - LPL, Esports World Cup Grand Finals
Recorded on: Saturday, July 6th at 6:15pm Eastern
Recap 0:26
LPL Slate 8:34
Esports World Cup Slate 15:21
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The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my patrons at patreon.com/jilladellol. There you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You'll also get to support your creators more directly. Good evening everybody, it's currently about 6.28 pm eastern on Saturday, July 6th. This is a bit of a late post, but I was catching up on the EWC match and vods from the second match in the LPL this morning as well as just getting my patreon post all done and fixed up and sorting out a couple data things that I had to square away, but here we are, ready to go. We have the EWC grand finals tomorrow and an LPL slate tomorrow morning, so a quick recap from this morning, we had T1, actually a recap from this morning and this afternoon, we'll do the match that wasn't all that interesting surprisingly first. Top e-sports against G2, they get the 2-0, this was a domination from top e-sports, it was not remotely close both these games, I mean I guess the first game was a little bit close, but top were in full control of both of these games, wire to wire, an absolute hand only of G2, that's now four games straight where top were in pretty good control besides that first kind of contested game with Genji. The first series yesterday, boy oh boy, you know I guess I'll touch on that when we get to it because I kind of, I'm gonna be cheating off my Patreon post notes here a little bit for the EWC match, I'll touch on that one later, LPL this morning, what do we have in the LPL this morning, we had Thunder Talk just with laying an absolute egg, turning back into a pumpkin, I said it earlier, I said it yesterday, teams that aren't like top 10 teams in the world should just be banning Tristan every game, because their macro is not good enough, they're going to have moments where they screw up and they leave her alone with a tower and they're just gonna lose all that gold, they're gonna snowball, hyper carry, it's just so eat, like that champion's so, so stupid easy to play, that like, the way to counteract Tristan is to like not let her get towers essentially, like you can, if you match her in farm, there are so many champions that are just way, way stronger than her in the early end mid game, that, I mean they're not really getting played right now, but like you can punish her, like it's, she's not utterly broken to the point where it's overpowered, it's just that it's a hyper scaling champion that opens up the AP jungling pool and allows teams to like, it basically forces you to have perfect macro and if you don't have perfect macro then she's gonna get fed and then you're dealing with a fed hyper carry and it takes a mistake at that point so, you know, the good teams, even the good teams, I hate that they're letting it through when, especially on like players that are not particularly great, like on other stuff or on other things that are good right now, like they should be testing people, this, this Tristan a quirky handshake, I know people in the esports department Discord were bitching and moaning about this, but like the Tristan a quirky handshake, I think teams can just disrupt that, like quirky I actually think is just fine, I think he's very strong but I think quirky is just fine, like there's plenty of counter play to him, he has his weaknesses, there's plenty of matchups that he has trouble with, Tristan a, there's fewer matchups she has trouble with and the main problem is like the ones that she does have trouble with, they're just unplayably bad right now, most of them, so I think teams should just be taking this off the table, like you just make the game so much harder for yourself for no reason and I think like some of the other bands that have been just like 100% proud for like this tournament and so far in this LPL in the summer, like they could probably just let them throw, like make, make teams show you something different, you know, like I, like I know I'm acting like I know more, like I'm not sitting here with all the scrim data in front of me, you know, like, like all these coaches, like a lot of these teams have like a data guy or an analyst that sits there and tracks everything in scrims and says okay, you know, 25 minutes into, you know, 25 minutes into scrimmages, you know, against Tristana we have, you know, we have a lead at 25 minutes in like 40% of the game or in like 50% of the games or whatever and like they come up with like they see it and they see it and time again, time again they play hundreds and hundreds of games every week and or maybe not hundreds but like they probably play about 60 to 100 games a week depending on the team and their scrim environment and how they how they do things like in those situations like you're getting way more of a data set than we are getting just the like 40 games that we see in a regular season for these teams. So I'm not sitting here pretending like I know more clearly they're letting things through for a reason like that it's it's probably because it's not doing as well on scrims as it is on stage. To me personally it's a little bit of hubris like especially from the bad teams to let it through because like clearly if you're too sloppy like it's just so punishing. So I'm not going to turn this into a Trist bitch fest because like I actually don't think it's too broken or overpowered or anything I just think teams should start banning it just to make teams show you something different right. Anyway yeah that happened Thunder talk just lost a Tristana and then the second game should have won and just bungled it because they should when they started the Baron the first time in that second game they should have just they should have just not whipped out and just flipped it because like that game wasn't going to get better for them. So like I think they probably should have just like full sent it and tried to flip it and try to win the fight or take the turn and try to win the fight but instead they just like went out ran away and got aced on the way out essentially I don't think they got aced it was like a three throw and then like after that point the game turned like the air they once they get Baron's over so I don't let rare Adam rare Adam the first game had one of their ceiling games and the whole Tristana angles a thing and Thunder talk kind of just looked like shit today they probably should have won the second game but who the hell knows they they didn't deserve to win the series even if they did win that second game so the other LPL match was Waybo against JD G Waybo of course Waybo come out with a 2-0 shellacking of JD G. I shouldn't say shellacking the first game they they almost threw like they actually the first game they really did throw back but they actually they ultimately got across the finish line like I don't even know what to say with this team anymore like they're they're an enigma you just never know what you're gonna get they're like a mystery box like they they have all the talent we know they have the talent we know that this is like now that we're in these conferences it's essentially a clean a clean slate they got in the upper conference it's essentially a clean slate all you have to do now is win right like you don't have to worry about like there's there was no seating to worry about this is kind of a concern that I had about that format was that like teams were kind of just like mail it in they clinched it now they didn't do that I think they actually just legitimately suck they didn't even they didn't even get in to the upper bracket until the very last game of the the placement stage or whatever so I don't think this team was sandbagging or whatever but like oh now that they're in it's you basically have to treat this kind of like a new season like from the you know it's a blank slate from a results perspective I don't know what to do with this team I'm probably just going to be staying away from games involving them for a little while because like if they have truly turned the corner then yeah okay I mean this team a lot of people thought this would be like the third or fourth best team the LPL thought this could be an elite team the roster has the talent to be an elite team they just looked like dog shit all season long so I don't I don't really know what to do with them this could just be a flooky thing like what wouldn't shock me to see them just lose out either like for quite frankly it would be the most weibo thing in existence for the 2024 weibo to like 2o JD G indecisive fashion 2o anyone's legend in that weird series and then like not win another series after that so like I don't know what to do with that team they're weird let's do the LPL slate real quick and then we'll get into these sports World Cup LPL week one day three ultra prime minus one 16 on the money line minus one day of maps at plus 246 plus one and a half is that minus 342 against Invictus Gaming minus 101 on the money line plus one a half is that minus 300 minus one a half is that plus 277 so a slightly you know pretty close to a pick them here same lineups for both the most notable thing is that you should know me is in fact starting for IG so we don't have to play that game model made this pretty close to to market price here ultra prime of a slightly better agnostic economy a lot more wins but these two teams I think ultimately aren't all that different their their results are different but they're I don't think they're actually that much different Invictus got them last time out I think and that was the that was the first match back for what's in the for for you should know me we back them there essentially like I the difference was that there was a different price on that one we got Invictus at plus 130 in that match this is basically a pick them now which is kind of where I think it should be I don't like really either of these teams but like the situation here to me personally is that your like ultra prime are probably as good as they are going to be like in terms of results and underlying performance metrics and everything I think they don't really have much room for growth upward relative to like what like I see on tape with this team which is bad they've been the beneficiaries of some really egregious unforced errors particularly early in games I think that's warping a lot of their statistics like to make them look better than they actually are like some of the teams they've played against have just had some really stupid stupid early games against them so you figure that and you figure like Invictus are probably like at their bottom like you might get a dead cat bounce like we've seen like they won the first series against them 2-0 pretty decisively against ultra prime and it was you should know me's first series back the lot of their numbers are warped by not starting their best player which is you should know me for whatever reason that was so I would actually lean to the Invictus side of things here but I didn't ultimately play anything I talked a little bit about the under four and a half dragons in this match but these two teams kind of like just got steamrolled by good teams a few times so I don't really know like if that's real or if it's just like you know the group was really really weak it's tough to get a read on how good or bad these teams actually are based on the group they played in because that group was just bizarre as shit so I'm not playing any of these but the model did flag the under four and a half dragons is a strong play so no action for me in this one but a lean to that ninjas in pajamas minus 150 on the money line minus 1/2 maps at plus 194 plus 1/2 that minus 451 against LNGs whereas plus 126 in the money line plus 1/2 that minus 237 in the underdog sweep is at plus 345 same lineups for these two model made this pretty much dead on the number a couple things to note with these two ninjas pajamas are somewhat boomer bust they either blow games open early or they get stomped early they're a team that has a lot of good results that aren't specific like if you watch their film are not a very fundamentally sound or clean team whatsoever they just kind of have really good explosive early games and sometimes that happens and the times it doesn't they look like shit so they're very very sloppy they have really really sloppy vision control they have really really sloppy objective setup and they sometimes just get distracted like closing games like I swear to god this team just like chases kills instead of closing games out sometimes and it's really bizarre it's like they're a solo queue team still they have really good players they've gotten good results and in an LPL that is devoid of quality macro gameplay they are gonna rise you know to top five or six or whatever because they're just good like fighters so to me this is lng or pass you know lng are kind of really boring we don't really know it's just tough to get a read on this team since they've switched this roster up a little bit but I just don't they're they're the less volatile asset but like nip like I don't know that I looked at this match and the first thing I thought was like I don't I basically never want to back ninjas and pajamas as a favorite unless it's just like a like a double-digit edge on market price like a team like ninjas and pajamas that's got poor fundamentals I just never want to be involved with as a bit as a favorite unless it's like an egregiously bad price like super cheap so I actually like so I have a general threshold for like what warrants a play it's got to be a certain amount past like market price for me to like I have a threshold for that for teams like nip like kt-rollster stuff like teams like that rare atom even like that are that are super volatile commodities I don't I don't really like to get involved with them unless it's like a bigger edge on market price than like what I would normally play so model made this just about right this feels just about right to me nip do have side choice which is like a thing but like that's counteracted by the just their their individual like their volatility as a team so I think this is just about right um couple derivative plays to consider I didn't end up playing anything but a couple derivative plays to consider um again keep in mind the groups that these two played in it's gonna impact things but um first tower tower and dragon unders um in general both showed edges uh significant edge on the dragon under uh thirty six point eight percent nip games and forty six uh six point seven percent of allen g games have gone under that total and you're getting plus one oh six I I really want to play this I'm just a little bit sketched out because of like nip's propensity for throwing games away late over the course of this year and really last year two um also the fact that like these teams kind of played in like like really suspect groups and I don't know like if the the game's being lopsided steam moles is just a thing or if it's just a nature of like how the drafts have gone or how those groups played or whatever but um model did flag this as a play I'm heavily leaning toward it but I'm not actually playing it um yeah I don't this is a very very strange slate I don't really I think these lines are actually pretty close to right so if it's not there don't force it like don't force into coin flips if you don't need to right so no plays in the LPL for me tomorrow esports world cup grand finals this is a best of five not a best of three like we've seen for the rest of the tournament um the grand uh the champion here is going to get a what I think it's like four hundred thousand dollars us something like that which is basically just short of the world championship prize pool so big deal here big match um we have top e sports or we have a t1 plus 153 on the money line as I've written my notes out this is actually drifted a bit toward t1 I think at pinnacle we're down to like plus 145 so I'm still just going to be reading off my notes but keep that in mind here t1 plus 153 on the money line plus one and a half maps is that minus 142 the minus one and a half is up plus 306 and the t1 sweep is at plus 834 against top e sports minus 187 on the main line minus one and a half maps at plus 118 the sweep is at plus 354 and the plus one and a half maps at minus 405 and we'll stop there uh over three and a half and four and a half maps I post on the patreon you can look at those markets yourself um model made top e sports a substantially bigger favorite here uh model made this a minus 285 minus plus or minus 285 fair I think that's a little bit heavy-handed but the reason that it's so heavy-handed is because t1's early games have been utterly terrible in this tournament and you know like this is a team that you know we've seen a couple like blow up bad games from them over the course of 2024 but uh in general they've had less than a handful of truly terrible opening 20-minute sequences like I actually went back and looked they have fewer than five I think they had five games exactly uh that were significant deficits at 20 minutes like statistically significant deficits over the course of the entire year they've had four in this event out of their six games I don't know if that's just the nature of unknown opponents or if it's just the nature of this metagame with the tristana and the all the other different snowball effects happening with the you know void grubs and everything I don't know if it's that I don't know if it's just that you know they they're just slow on the on the rotation they're they're trying to make a lot of these cross map plays and they're just trading down like very very consistently um that's been a theme through both their series so far and uh I mean guys this is a team that struggled mightily with team liquid they they the the two games two of the games that they've won were like dominant decisive wins the other four games were not like the the two losses they got blown out and then in two of their wins it took massive comebacks that they were probably sub tech really sub like five percent to win those games so I think it's safe to say it's he won or straight up lucky to be here and you know that sounds a little bit crazy to say given that they're one of the elite teams across the globe right now but they have not been good in this tournament on the other side of this match top esports have been pristine not not you know like not perfect but pretty damn close in this man in this tournament they had that really really close game one against Genji dominated Genji in the second match and then they've dominated g2 today to you know one way traffic decisive victories you know just looking at current form it's no surprise that the model likes top esports so much and then you really if you you know I mentioned it yesterday but like when I was recapping top verse Genji but like I think there's a chance that that might have just been the actual final in this tournament meaning like if you look at how everyone else has looked in this event I think top and gen like Genji lost two games that's always off in this event and they went home I still think that like that that game won between top esports and Genji was the best like the the highest overall quality game in the tournament like and by that I mean like fewest mistakes made um a lot of really really high level shit in that game and you know the second game you know ended up being a blowout for top esports but a lot of high level shit in that game too all these other games have been pretty pretty sloppy by like almost every other team I think there was I mean there's a couple couple high like T T1's one win against Billy Billy was pretty dominant um I get but like in general like the level that we saw in that series is way higher than what we've seen in this event like across like for the rest of the event so I think there's a reasonable chance that like those were that was our final and unfortunately it was just the best of three uh it makes a lot of sense to me that T1 or this or top or this big of favorite here um the another aspect here uh I you know I guess let's let's I'm gonna go ahead and recap a little because I said I was gonna do that and I didn't uh so T1 T1 probably should have lost a liquid today and I actually went back and rewatched this match before I wrote my patreon post after it looked you know after the second topper's gen or a g2 game was just over I started vaud reviewing that again T1 should have lost this match liquid steam rolled them in game one liquid were in the middle of steam rolling them in game two or in game three rather they had a 4500 gold lead at the 20-minute mark they were handling them they had a fed zerys or yone had three kills APA had two kills on tristana um they had a ton of gold from towers like this game was more or less over they had an inhibitor turret in 1840 T1 kept losing cross map trades over and over the tristana was snowballed and fed they had a fed you know zerry as well what ended up happening was oopsie got caught in toppling right at the 20-minute mark T1 picked up some gold from that it looked like they were gonna T1 Baron but the fight was close to something couldn't do that liquid rushed right back to the Baron tried to burn it down before T1 got there but owner was able to hop in and steal the Baron and T1 essentially got out scot free from that and from there they just started clawing back the gold lead and eventually like you know the gold was back to even and then eventually they picked up before it went around the 28-minute mark in mid lane ended the game off of it liquid liquid kind of lost their nerve here umptie got picked off and they kind of like looked rattled a little bit they it seemed like they it was the right call to to force the Baron rushed the Baron there it wasn't the right call to 50/50 it they should have been playing more defense to prevent uh a 50/50 they should have been getting boards behind the pit should have been you know putting someone back there to try to stop a steal or something like that or taking the fight instead and they didn't and they ended up losing the game because but like like I said T1 should have lost the series today they're lucky to be here that said there's this dynamic that happens when you have a team that limps into it into a match versus another team that's looked dominant in the match here like going into a match right this dynamic that happens you see this in traditional sports all the time there's a suit there's like a bias where people tend to go way way overboard on declaring the one side dead and the other ones just oh this team's coming in with the hot hand this team's looked like shit coming in that's it that's the handicap right sometimes it is that simple but a lot of times that just gets overdone by the market in this case it's not we've actually seen some buyback on T1 already it's not much and again this is not super liquid markets here so keep that in mind but we've seen some buyback on T1 already a little bit my model makes this bigger but again like context is everything they've looked like shit in this tournament top of looked outstanding and it puts more weight on recent performance and that's why it's showing that stylistically I think this is a really really tough match for T1 though like top e-sports I would say top e-sports are probably the best early game team in the world and really like if you want to get down to it over the course over the balance of 2024 I think these are probably your two best early game teams in the world the difference is T1's early game even domestically has not looked particularly great in the last like week or so and at this event it's looked like dog shit top e-sports are just still rolling and they've looked incredible in this tournament so if you think T1's early game problems are like a thing or that it's not something they can easily adjust for then yeah top e-sports are probably a bet here this is a bad stylistic match up in that regard now if you think like I personally tend to think that you know this it's one match it's a best of five you have some time to adjust T1 or so battle tested in these that and they make really really good adjustments in series so I wouldn't like I'm not calling them dead by any means I also have like my my whole like you know elite team parody thesis that I've been rolling with where like I don't think any of these top teams are that much better than the other ones if you want to you know put a little bit of weight on what we've seen recently then I think like I would make this like you know more or less a coin flip like in on most days like in a vacuum if we didn't have any of this tournament and you put these two teams against each other I'd probably just make it a pick them now if you want to put a little bit of weight on what we've seen in this tournament so far then that gets you probably to about market price which is where we're at right now so to me I wouldn't I wouldn't back top e-sports here in fact I'd probably lean toward the T1 side of things because you're kind of like buying the bottom like if you think this is the worst that we've seen of T1 and that it can't really get much worse than what we've seen they still got to a final in this event beating beating Billy Billy along the way by the way and a liquid team that's looked incredible in this tournament so you know whether you have your bias against the LCS or not liquid have looked really good in this event and T1 have looked like shit and they're still here so you know whether they got lucky or not what if what if they just start actually playing good again you're gonna you're gonna be kicking yourself holding you know not having a plus 150 in your pocket right so if I didn't have a position in this match I would probably I would probably lean T1 but I wouldn't play T1 like very very heavy lean to T1 if it gets to a bigger price like a 160 or something I'd probably end up playing it just uh I know it sucked like compared to like what they're what they've looked like in this event like you're look you're fading strength and backing weakness which always feels shitty but you know you know you got to be a contrarian sometimes that's probably where I'd go but I'm not ultimately playing that luckily for me and hopefully for you as well if you tailed here we have a top e-sports future to win this tournament at plus 13 14 for a quarter unit the true hedge for this assuming you're holding that ticket would be a 1.4 unit stake on T1 at plus 153 you'd have a plus 1.89 unit net guaranteed win if you did that like I said if I didn't have the top e-sports future I would heavily lean toward T1 but not play it more than likely I do think these teams are more closely matched in the market and my model thinks but you know I think it's reasonable to to make top e-sports a favorite given the current form that we've seen in this event and the specific difficulty that T1 might have with this match up with how good top serley game is and how rough there's as looked in this event so what I'm going to be doing for this is I'm going to be taking a little bit of my risk off the table and guaranteeing a small profit but I'm still leaving most of my win equity in top e-sports so I'm going to play T1 money line plus 153 for a half unit essentially what this is doing is that if T1 win and I end up losing that future like I'll still guarantee I think it's like whatever it is like a one point I'll end up I'll end up guaranteeing like you know point like three quarters of a unit more or less which I'm fine with and if we win I'm leaving most of my equity in because I do think top have looked better and I do think they should be favored here but I'm going to leave most of my equity in top e-sports if top if that future gets home then we're going to be having a good day tomorrow so that's the way I'm playing this if I didn't have a ticket already on top e-sports I'd probably lean to T1 consider playing it if it gets up into the plus 160 range but again left most my equity in top e-sports so go top e-sports that's going to be it for me today I will probably have a post out later on tonight because I have a bizarre schedule tomorrow so I'll probably have something out later on tonight for the Monday LPL slate until then best of luck and I will see you then.
