The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my Patrons at patreon.com/jilladellol. There, you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You'll also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jilladell, that's G-E-L-A-T-I-L-O-L. Good evening everybody, it's currently about 6.25 p.m. Eastern on Friday, July 5th. Mano, man, did I need a day like today with this rut that I've been in. We ended up plus 4.142 units on the day, a clean 5.0 sweep. We had every single wager, god I needed this, I was in a real rut. I'm gonna do, I wrote a really, really lengthy, I basically just like copy pasted most of my notes and cleaned it up a little for the eSports World Cup. So we'll touch on that first in the recap here. Top eSports delivered the 2.0 stunner, I put that in quotes here because as we discussed yesterday, I really just think this was closer to a coin flip. Finally, that thesis got paid off, took a while, but god damn that felt good. Regardless of the result, even though, you know, if Genji ended up winning game one, I think the thesis still would have held up here. If you watch this series, these two games, especially the first game, they were very, very close. The first game was extremely close. Like basically nobody had a significant edge through the first like 30 minutes of the game. Top eSports, like I don't even think Genji even played bad in this match. Both teams played extremely good. Like literally the first 25 minutes of this match. It was pretty clear to me, I was like, just watching the first 25 minutes of this game one, I was like, these two teams are probably in the best form right now. They've looked, they just looked cleaner. They looked more disciplined, more structured than all the other teams at this event. I don't know if it's just that they dealt with the travel better or dealt with scrim, like practicing or preparing for this better, but like almost every other game in this tournament, like every other game, like literally every game I'm saying, is like has been just a complete shit show slot fest. Like these teams are all playing well below their level, to be honest with you. I mean, maybe you could argue the NA teams are playing close to their level, but like most of these teams, like it seems like everyone's just kind of out of sorts, you know, weird surroundings. It's part of what I've touched on with the situational spot, like the travel and riots not hosting it. It's not the same refs, not the same environment, not the same stuff. Like it's, it's a weird, weird tournament. And it's like, you know, jousting them into them at all the season here. Like I'm unseating everybody and bringing them in. So it looks like that's gotten to most of the teams. It did not look like it got to topper Genji, who both looked great in this first game. I think top just played a little bit better. They navigated their composition ever so slightly better. They, you know, just abused the visions and I'll afford it by Ivern bushes to make finding a decent entry for Genji in the late game. Just nearly impossible. That was eventually the difference game to was not nearly as close. Top East where it's kind of like steam rolled this wasn't a huge blowout early, but this kind of got out of hand. It was a little weird in this first game. I forgot to mention the first game. Chovia that are building QSS in the first game, which was odd. I think he guess he just didn't understand the Mordekaiser thing anymore. But anyway, Chovia actually ended up leading the game in overall damage despite going one, five and two against creams like 11 kill Corki. So Chovis way still did the most damage for an individual player in this game, which is ridiculous way he does that, but still it was kind of cool. Top just got a little bit too fed for Genji's limited frontline and snowball. This one to win for top East where it's not holding anything against Genji. I don't think they looked bad in this series at all. I just think like I said, like even if this ended up being a two oh for Genji, like just based on that first game alone, the thesis was right. Like these two teams are much closer match. I really based on what we've and we've now seen every team in this tournament play based on what we've seen in this tournament. I sincerely think that like this was maybe the final. We didn't know it right away, but this might have been just the final just based on the form that we've seen in the series that have been played so far. I think these two teams looked a lot more polished in specifically in that game one and really for topping game two. They just looked a lot more polished and less affected by all the shenanigans happening than every other team in this event. So there's a chance that this was just the final and we didn't know it. You know, I kind of thought maybe it was possible, but anyway. Big, big win also sets up very nicely for our futures positions for top esports. Looking at a pretty nice score here. Second match G2 fly quest. G2 really struggled with fly quest in this match. These games were a lot closer than I thought they were going to be. Game one very close, tightly contested one. Quad got ahead on Tristana, which is just always a problem. Inspired picked up first blood on brand. Mass, who picked up a few kills right around the 18 minute mark. So like all the carrots for fly quest got rolling and they probably should have won this game on that alone, but they had a kind of a weird overextension kind of setting up for like that weird dance between dragon and Baron in the mid 20 minutes where it kind of allowed for G2 to get a really nice teleport flank and a one fight, which they flipped into a Baron. It looked like G2 were just going to win the game off that. They had no response from fly quest as they were sieging up bottom, but they overstayed, tried to end, couldn't, didn't get ace or anything, but they couldn't end reset. Fly quest ended up getting a win in the next fight that happened in mid lane around the 31 minute mark. They got cleaned up, fly quest ended up nearly winning the game just like G2 did, but they also couldn't end the game. This game kind of came down to a fight over the six dragon, which was ocean soul point for fly quest. Skarner picked off Braum as Mickey was trying to get forward vision, got the reset started for Tristana. The double AD comp was able to just clean up from there. While back and forth game, really it looked like G2 were going to end and then it looked like fly quest were going to end and then eventually fly quest did end. Would argue that based on how this game started that fly quest probably should have done better. They got all the goal where they wanted it on their carries, but you know, took a little while, but they got there. Game two, bloody one. They were like 26 kills in the first 25 or 26 minutes. No significant gold league got accrued even through all of that wild action. Fly quest really, really getting down in the mud with G2 playing their own game against them. Really just trying to trade up and trade up and trade up and ended up being parody trades over and over. I don't think anybody had more than like a 2k gold league through the first like 30 minutes of this game. It was pretty wild. G2 had all the answers to the early game too. Like they had all the counterplays, all the counter ganks. They read fly quests like a book and just could not turn it into anything until they got a baron. And then once they got the baron, they kind of closed the game. Game three was another really closely contested competitive game. Stayed essentially a coin flip until Baron was taken. Nobody really amassed any kind of significant lead until G2 picked up a 5 for 2 ace trade on the fourth dragon fight off the back of an arrow scape and teleport back in by cap. So he got like chunked out really early, managed to get out, got a flash out. His team stuck around, kept them fighting. He got a, he recalled, healed up to full, teleported back into the fight, ended up cleaning up the fight. They flipped that into a baron and you know from there G2 had a vice grip on things and closed it out. Tristana, you know, I wrote this in my notes, but Tristana's been like the real wild card in the Prometta. She snowballed so hard, she scales extremely well and she just demands such sound fundamentals of the team she's against for her not to get completely out of control. And it seems like teams understand this and they know, but they're not interested in banning her. So like, I get it. I understand why teams feel that way because like the games where she's behind it doesn't feel like she does anything right, but the games where she's ahead, it's just like it feels win more and that's probably how the coaches and players are thinking about it. They're like, you know, it's a win more champion. Like, you know, when she gets ahead, you probably weren't going to win those games anyway, but she makes like games that were 60, 40 into games that are like 80, 20 just because she scales so well and just gets out of control. Once the towers get rolling, you can just amass these huge gold leads with her. It's weird. It seems like she creates a lot of lopsided games and like a lot of the upsets that have happened domestically and internationally have been on the back of this champion just like she's really easy to play to. Like there's no real notice of execution to be had. She's kind of just roll your face on the keyboard and I'm better than you. Not exactly a hard champ to play. So just an interesting note, I was kind of ruminating on that idea as we were going. Another thing I was thinking about more. The Esports World Cup has really demonstrated a few things. First, situationally with all the travel and everything, it's kind of for the most part made things incredibly sloppy for everyone seemingly besides G2 and Genji and top esports. Keep in mind that that could change once teams settle down a little bit. Maybe we'll see a little bit, you know, less of a circus game to game. The other thing it says is that maybe these top teams are just more closely masked than we thought. You know, I kind of thought the Elite 5 or 6 teams are all, I mean JDG is not at this tournament. I'm including them in this conversation. I kind of thought they were all a lot closer match to then the market seems to think. But maybe like Fnatic and Flyquest and Liquid are too. I don't know. It could just be like the volatility of this event, I don't know. But so far it's been wildly competitive and entertaining. So maybe not the highest level League of Legends, but I mean that Genji top series was very high level. But everybody else has been kind of sloppy, but it's been entertaining regardless. So good to see competitive games. It's been a good fun thing to watch so far. Alright, LPL Saturday morning, week one, day two of the actual summer regular season with the two conferences. We have Thunder Talk Gaming, -1 and 6 in the Money Line, +1 and a half is at -3, 17, +1 and a half is at +2, 64. Against Rare Adam, -1, 14 in the Money Line, -1 and a half is at +2, 47, +1 and a half is at -3, 41. Basically I pick them here. Going into summer, or going into this portion of the season, I kind of mentioned that I thought these could be the two best teams in this group or in this conference. And, you know, EDG, depending on what you think about EDG and TeamWE, I think they're the other ones to consider, but I think these two teams are kind of a cut above the rest of those. I think Thunder Talk right now, if you made me pick a team to end up first in this conference, I'd probably say Thunder Talk as bizarre as that is. I have a few reasons for this. First of all, I think Thunder Talk had one of the tougher groups to get through. EDG, fun plus JDG, no softballs there, relatively tough. Maybe you could make a case EDG or aren't that good. Fun plus kind of had a slow start, I guess. On the other hand, Rare Adam, OMG was like in their group and OMG has graded out as the worst team in the league so far. You could make a case that they had like tougher high-end competition. But generally speaking, like on a game-to-game basis, the main handicap between these two is that Thunder Talk or a consistent team, and Rare Adam or a volatile team. Rare Adam are kind of like a diet version of KT Rolster from Spring, where they have these like crazy ceiling games where like Zhao Zheu or Zhao Hao just blow the game open earlier. Vicla just goes nuts and they have very high ceiling games, but their lows are terrible. They're very inconsistent, a lot of game-to-game volatility with this team. They have very low-game-grade volatility. They're just like consistent, like they always play the same way. Not in a bad way, but you just kind of know what you're getting with them. They play a lot of like, I call it like parody League of Legends or coin flip League of Legends, where like they're really, really good at keeping games close. Now I say that with a caveat, almost 43% of their games this season, they've had a significant deficit at 20. Same for Rare Adam by the way, but over the balance of 2024 as a season, Thunder Talk have generally been pretty good about keeping games close. The problem is in their wins, they don't really amass big leads, so like they're not giving themselves like a lot more win equity in like win probability in their wins. A lot of their wins that Thunder Talk pick up are like ugly. The team's a coin flip through 25 minutes and they just have better late game and decision-making than a lot of these bad teams do in the LPL, and they're good enough to punish that. And they typically tend to draft scaling compositions as well. The other side of that is that they kind of make a decent underdog because they can usually do a pretty good job of keeping it within striking distance and because they tend to draft scaling, they're always going to have a better chance in the late game than a lot of teams are. Rare Adam are much more willing to do different things, which I usually like more if it's a good team, but I'm not entirely sure Rare Adam is a good team. As a matter of fact, I don't think they're particularly good. I just think they're maybe a little bit better than the bottom of the table, but I don't know, it's tough to tell. Rare Adam's numbers are way, way blown out of proportion because they, like I said, they're a tough team to cap because when they get beat, they get utterly stomped, and when they beat, they do utter stomping. So they don't have a whole lot of median performances, like game grays. That's why I'm talking about high game grade volatility. They don't have a lot of stuff that's close to zero. Basically everything that they do is either close to 50%, sorry. A lot of their games are either 5th percentile or they're closer to the margins than they are to the middle. They're like the opposite of the bell curve, high volatility team. Economically, Thunder talk rate way better team, and they did so against better competition, and they were able to, again, perform decently even in losses. They have more than 6% of their losses have graded as quality losses. Even in games where they get behind big, they're pretty good at stabilizing and keeping it close, even with a significant deficit at 20 minutes. It's really just two different styles of team we're looking at here. I do think these two are pretty evenly matched. If you take the OMG freebie softball games out of rare Adam's sample, four of rare Adam's wins were against OMG. They actually dropped a game to OMG too. If you take the OMG games out of the sample for Thunder talk, or for rare Adam rather, and you just measure them up against pretty good teams, the models made Thunder talk like a minus one, whatever it was, let me look it up here. Well, it's made them a minus one 95 favorite in this contest. If you take the OMG games away from rare Adam, looking at the economy metrics, agnostic economy, they have a triple digit negative agnostic gold differential. So I could just be wrong that rare Adam is very bad, but they've also been kind of just getting trounced by good teams, which is contributing a lot to that. Meanwhile, Thunder talk have more than a 70 gold edge on the agnostic gold per minute raw, and they're basically at zero for the agnostic differential, which really by the numbers, Thunder talk should probably be in the upper conference, and they're just not because they didn't get the results they needed, and they had a tough group. I would lean heavily to a Thunder talk, but I'm trying to be more selective here. Thunder talk also has side choice for this contest. I would heavy heavy lean to Thunder talk for me, but I'm trying to be more picky about what I like, and I do think rare Adam are a volatile team, and in a best of three that tends to be good for you. Heavy heavy lean to Thunder talk, I might end up talking myself into playing Thunder talk here later on, because the more I'm thinking about it, the more I probably just should, but I'm trying to be more picky about choosing my spots here, and just without manipulating the data and looking at some context for stuff, it kind of showed not a big enough edge on Thunder talk to be warrant a position, but the stuff that matters a lot, I think I do like Thunder talk, and I like their consistency more, but we'll see. No play for me for now. If I end up changing my mind on that, I'll post something on the Patreon. Second game is JDG, minus 630 on the Moneyline, minus 1 to head, minus 1 to head, minus 1 to 64, against Waybo Gaming, plus 444 on the Moneyline, plus 1 to head, minus 1 to head, minus 1 to head, minus 1 to head, plus 11, 74. Sheer is getting the start for JDG, breather bringing Crisp back, so brief Tarzan Jahoo Light and Crisp, the original lineup back again. Model made this not too far off market, showed a slight edge on Waybo, plus 1 and a half maps, and I think maybe that's, if you choose a side, that's maybe the way to go. I think I'm going to kind of shorten this up, because I've already been really, really wordy in talking a lot on this podcast, but I think most of this handicap comes down to whether or not you think Waybo are going to do a bit of a deadcap bounce here. Do you think they've bottomed out, or do you think it's more like this team's actually just bad? Because the realistic thing here is JDG are an elite team. You have to give them a bump for that. They are one of the best teams in the league. I think they're one of the best teams in the world, just because they're not at the Sea Sports World Cup or at MSI doesn't mean that. I think they're getting, they're better now too, like they had kind of a slow start to spring. JDG or a world-class team, they have ridiculous economy numbers, like absolutely ridiculous economy numbers. And, you know, the question mark I had for them was the early game. The early game has been excellent. So I really, like, if you think Waybo are going to be closer to what the preseason expectation and all the hype was around this lineup, then maybe you can take a shot on them here. If you think that, if you're like me and you just kind of want to wait for confirmation to see that, then I don't think you can really make a play in this match. Like, I think JDG is, you know, priced about right. But if you're more bullish on Waybo than I am, then I think maybe you could take a shot on them. Personally, the way I'd play this is kill total overs. Like, if I like Waybo, I would rather play kill total overs than like the Waybo side, because I think it's possible that they're competitive and chippy and still lose these games. JDG have, you know, excellent macro in general, and they have a great closing, you know, they generally have a very good closing rate. So if you're going to have, like, if you're going to play Waybo to be competitive, I'd just play kill total overs. I mean, my models like to an overplay in this anyway. Like the over 25 and a half at -120 ish. Projection for this game is like 26.73 combined kills. JDG are averaging like 28.2 combined kills per game. And a well above league average 0.9 or 8.95 combined kills per minute. So the question here comes down mostly to whether or not you think Waybo are going to be competitive, or do you think Waybo are going to get back to what they were? Because we know what JDG had been so far this summer. So if you think Waybo are going to give you a bit of a dead cat balance and actually, you know, somewhat even partially deliver on the expectations and hype as they kind of get more acclimated to each other, then take a shot on Waybo. I do not believe that. I think this team might just suck, even though they have a ton of talented players. They haven't shown me anything to give them any kind of hope otherwise, so I'm not on team Waybo getting better. But if you are, then I think kill totals are the way to play it. At Esports World Cup Day 3, T1 minus 1600 on the Moneyline, minus 1/2 is at -303 against Team Liquid plus 919 on the Moneyline, plus 1/2 is at +238 and the underdog sweep is at +1922. Model made this a pick them. I'm going to kind of go over that a bit more detail here. The reason it did that is because Liquid's objective control is good. Again, this is not waiting for regional strength. It is just looking at the raw data from these teams, combining MSI spring playoffs and summer. So trying to get more weight on their performances against good teams, but also factor in their recent performance as well. This is also not including the matches we've seen so far. I've had a little bit of an issue. I've had to manually pull a lot of the data for this via the tape because there's no good API for this event since it's not Riot hosted. I'm working on that. I'll probably have an update to the post later on tonight, but I think it's pretty obvious that I don't think this is a pick them. The model makes it that way. Obviously, again, not waiting for regional strength. I think a lot of this handicap comes down to whether or not you think all the stuff that's been happening, the situational volatility that I've discussed at Nozium, the fact that I think all of these teams, there's a lot more parity amongst these teams than I thought. I think the NA teams have performed much better than I thought that they would at this tournament, and maybe that's just the thing. T1, you know, BLG, that's impressive as hell, but I didn't think they looked particularly clean doing it. Like, no matter how you slice this out quantitatively, I think you're going to have a tough time putting an accurate price on this. I think the way this series is priced, I think it's pretty binary. Like, if you think liquid or competitive, you should probably just bet liquid. Or take liquid kill spreads. I think they're like plus nine and a half on the kill spread or something like that. I think they're drastically, drastically outclassed individually in this contest, which concerns me with the way they tend to play the game. I think T1 should be smart enough to know that, you know, they don't want to give them all the comfort. This match at MSI was surprisingly competitive. And really, I think liquid probably should have been up two games to one after the third game in that series. They weren't, but I think it probably should have been the case. They were very, very competitive against T1 there. That was another situation where T1 weren't exactly showing the best form. Kind of getting a similar thing here. T1 were minus 5,200 in that series. So, you know, market has corrected just a little bit. This is still just a massive number, though. Yeah. Look, to me, I think this is, like, liquid or pass. I don't have the stomach for it. And, like, this is a huge number. I think a lot of this is, like, you could maybe speculate and take, like, take a shot on liquid pre-flop and then play the draft because I think, like, if liquid get Tristana or, like, teams are just not going to pressure or take APA off any of his comfort picks, then, yeah, liquid can take games. We've already seen them. They probably should have two game wins against T1 already this season. So, keep that in mind. If you, like, you know, if you think that's going to happen twice, then, you know, I don't fault you. This is a huge number. It's not really that big of a correction. It's, like, percentage-wise from MSI. Like, if you think that was a fluke. I mean, it's been kind of the same situation. Like, liquid are showing well internationally again. I don't know if that's just that, like, it's the same kind of thing. Like, are they showing well because they beat Fanatic twice and Fanatic has just sucked or they just have Fanatic's number? Kind of, maybe? Potentially? I don't know. But they were competitive against T1 as well. So, I don't want to get involved with T1 at this price. I think T1 probably are going to stop this team. I'm not sure. Like, that's my gut is telling me, like, like, every ounce of my being is like, "Are you kidding me?" But, you know what? I said the same thing last time and liquid were competitive. So, like, I don't have the appetite to go to war with liquid. I really don't. But I probably should. You know, like, this is one of those, like, I usually have no problem doing a whole new nose special and just taking the number and whatever. But I have a feeling that, like, T1 are just going to have more answers this time around. I thought they got out drafted a couple times in the last series and still won it three to one. Like, I think like T1 are probably going to gain more from that last match against liquid than liquid gained, if that makes sense. Like, T1 played pretty bad that day. And still won the series 3-1. They haven't really shown an incredible form right now. But, like, the step from Billy Billy to liquid is a pretty big one, even if I think these teams are all closer together. It's still a pretty big step down in competition. But if you want to embrace the situational volatility and kind of, like, the dynamic that we've been seeing in this tournament, like, the underdogs have been dominating in this tournament. The underdogs have won three of these series outright and they've covered the match spread all four times. FlyQuest got one today. So... And they're... we're talking big underdogs here. Like, you know, top were three plus three sixty-six or so. Like, in that range, you know, FlyQuest were what, like, four and a half to one. Obviously, liquid were close to a pick on them against FlyQuest and then T1 were, I think, plus one forty or so. So not, like, all huge dogs. Like, the dogs have been barking in this tournament. There's a lot of volatility with the situations and all that. I would not fault you for playing liquid. I probably should play liquid. The model says, if I'm kelly staking, this is just, like, the wager of a century. But, again, like, I think quantifying this stuff is a little bit difficult, especially for international play. It's liquid or past for me. No action. And if you prefer liquid, I think I would probably take a shot. Like, you could probably split stake it, like, kill spread. And, like, you could do, like, map to map kill spread in the map money line or kill spread in, like, plus one and a half or series money line, something to, you know, cover your stay 'cause if, like, liquid get ahead and then throw a game or something, which, you know, they've kind of been one to do at times, then, you know, you're gonna want that plus eight and a half, plus nine and a half in pocket. But, I didn't end up playing anything in this one. I think the number is prohibitively expensive for T1, but I, I just don't have the stomach for it, I guess. Probably should be betting liquid, but I'm not going to, so. Next up, we have top e-squares minus 277 on the money line. Minus one and a half maps a plus one 19. Plus one and a half is a minus eight 44 against G2 e-squares plus two 19 on the money line. Plus one and a half is a minus one 44. Minus one and a half is a plus five 63. Model made this minus 135 for top e-sports. A couple of interesting things here. So, first of all, let's talk about the futures position and how I'm handling this. The features on top e-sports worked out. Toughest match was right away. Coincidentally for them, arguably, the second toughest match, the fact that they haven't been able to get over the hump against Billy Billy and Billy Billy about now being eliminated is massive, massive plus EV for them. Again, that was part of the thesis for this. It's worked out. So, I have a full unit on them plus 440 to reach the finals. I'm generally of the belief that hedging should only be considered when a hedge position is plus EV, like massively plus EV. This was kind of like the topic that you were on Twitter like two weeks ago or so. So, feel free to dive into this on your own. I know like Rufus Peabody and a bunch of other guys were chopping up and talking about this. It's an interesting conversation. Generally, the general shorthand rule of thumb for most people is like if it's going to be life-changing money, yeah, probably hedge. If it's a plus EV on the other side by a lot, then it's usually okay to take some risk off the table. You don't want to hedge when you're playing a minus EV on the other position in general. Unless you're having a qualitative reason, like some of the dynamic has changed or like there's been an injury or something like that. This isn't exactly life-changing money with these sports limits. So, I'm inclined not to hedge unless the position is so plus EV that it's basically a freebie. So, let's dive into this match and figure out if that's the case, right? Top e-sports, they looked great against Genji. Genji didn't even look bad. I talked about this in the recap. I thought both these teams looked like, you know, great in this opening match. I think this might have been our final, just based on the quality of games that we saw between those two and how they've both performed versus, you know, the field here. Every other team's kind of looked a little bit sloppy. It doesn't seem like the situational stuff has bothered either of them yet. So, I mean, again, I'm extrapolating based on one's of two games. So, you know, take this with a grain of salt, but still. G2, other side of this match, really struggled with FlyQuest this morning. Had to clutch out a few big plays on the back of caps to get across the finish line. FlyQuest played really, really well today. They fought Fire of Fire, really challenged G2, played their own game, which was impressive, kind of beat them at their own game in parts of this series. I don't think G2 even played badly, but I kind of expected them to dominate here. I'm not downgrading them or giving them a knock in any way, but I think it's worth noting that there's not really reason to upgrade them either. So, I do give a slight bump to top, just based on what we saw one beating the best team in the world, deserve some recognition, and two, they just looked like I test wise better than every other team we've seen in this tournament so far, like everyone else has been pretty sloppy. So, you know, if they looked really, really good and they beat the other team, the only other team that's looked exceptionally good, then that could mean things. So, most of the matches in this tournament are going to be made closer than, you know, the market is via the models, it's going to have a really tough time quantifying regional differences and stuff like that, but a couple things to note here, G2 top esports, they played at MSI, G2 dominated them, as a 3.0 sweep, two of those games were pretty big draft advantages for G2, but they were decidedly better on the day, completely dominated the course of play in all three games. It's possible that just like liquid and fanatic, that G2 maybe just have their number in some way, shape or form, and you have to consider that as a possibility here. I like both teams read on the meta so far that we've seen in this tournament, again, it's only one series, but I think this patch is probably better for top than the MSI patch was. Everyone thought that was going to be a great patch for them and ended up not being that great for them. Just, and by top, I mean specifically for like Tianon Cream's champion pools, that's like a big deal. I like G2's read on things as well. So the way I like to approach this is like if I didn't already have a position on top esports, would I be betting top or G2 here? And the answer is I would be betting G2 esports here at price. I'm not quite, I think it's probably maybe a little bit, just based on what we've seen in this tournament so far, it's probably a little bit heavier than my model makes it, so I'd probably make top like -150, make this like a 60/40, just based on what we saw, but it's only one game, so like that might just be stupid too. I think it's, model price is actually probably pretty close to right here. If you want to make, I could see the case for making this a true pick 'em because G2/3 owed them last time out. So like the fact is like I would actually bet G2, I think there's an advantage on the price for G2 at this price and it's a big advantage. So in this situation, I am actually going to bet G2 Moneyline. I'm going to bet G2 Moneyline + 2019 for 1.25 units, partially because I'm essentially holding top plus 440 and I want to take some risk off the table. The other part of this is that I actually think the G2 side of this is just straight up plus EV at price, so I'm okay taking some risk off the table. I'm going to - this creates a situation essentially where I'm winning no matter what. The true hedge on this by the way, I didn't do the math for that right away, but the true hedge amount on plus 440 to reach the final versus the plus 219 Moneyline here would be 1.69 units to create a hedge profit of plus 2.71 units. So like that would be your true hedge, like your true 50/50 split hedge. I'm leaving top equity because I think they've looked pretty good, but given that I think G2 or plus EV that there's a case to be made that you should actually put more equity into the G2 side of things if you think it's plus EV, but I'm going to kind of just let this isn't - I'm just going to let my top esports position ride here. I feel pretty good about it. They looked really, really good. G2 looked a little sketch. I'm going to leave more of my equity on top esports in this case, but I think a true 50/50 split or even putting more in G2 is totally on the table as well. That's going to be it for me. I will see you all tomorrow.
