The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my patrons at patreon.com/jilladellol. There you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jilladell that's G-E-L-A-T-I-L-O-L. Good evening everybody, I hope everyone's having a good 4th of July for those celebrating in the US. I'm getting ready to head to work myself like a classic federal holiday. I mostly just bent out of shape at the complete fucking no show that we just saw from fanatic. Just now, I'm recording this, it's like a little after 5 o'clock eastern on July 4th here at Thursday, T1 Billy Billy, messy back and forth competitive series but T1 actually get there, I mean not all that surprise there, I kind of mentioned yesterday it's possible they kind of show up and clutch it out and I don't know, they just did, it was a sloppy series, it could have gone either way. I don't think they looked particularly good, I don't think either team looked particularly good in that series, I think we're kind of seeing the consequences of like very little prep time for this. Not that these teams haven't known about this event but like these teams, most of these teams played matches on Sunday, flew out Sunday night or Monday, got to this event, had like a day or two to scrim, I don't even think any of them were really scrimming each other because it's a team tournament, you don't want to reveal anything to anyone. I don't know how much actual good practice these teams got, maybe they were scrimming against some of the Saudi teams, I don't know but like it doesn't seem like anybody got any good prep work in for this because every game has just been kind of a bonanza, like a complete Fiesta, like they've turned into solo queue games, it's a little weird. I'm, anyway T1 get there, Fnatic, Fnatic just got steamrolled in game one, game one ended up being their second worst individual game grade of 2024, and that now, that now means that three of the four worst games, game grades for Fnatic in the entire calendar year of 2024 have happened at the hands of Team Liquid, of all teams, Team Fucking Liquid, you know I want to give them some props here, I've, I've obviously been out of shape and pissed off that I lost this double stake on Fnatic again, they've now lost as minus 400 favourites and as minus 130 favourites, they're officially on my shit list, but I do want to give Liquid some flowers here, for like, I don't, it's like the mind control, like every team seems to just mind control them into thinking, oh yeah, you know, we can beat APA, he's not that good, like the guy plays three champions, people, and no, like no T, and I know you can't just lob bands at one player, I know that, and I don't think banning him out would have fixed anything in this series, I'm honestly just shocked nobody's even tried to, like still to this day, like no one has even tried to at these international competitions, no one has even bothered to try to force him onto something he might be uncomfortable on, it's, it's fucking staggering to me, I don't know, like, it's not the reason Fnatic lost today, they just played like shit today, but it's, they just looked, the game won, they just looked completely lost, they just gave up like five towers for free, just didn't even profitably trade anything across the map, they just got steamrolled, they had a cat, I loved the Kassadin pick, I thought if this game was even remotely, they could have been down two or three K, heading into the mid game and it would have been fine, but they dug themselves like a fucking 7,000 gold deficit because they just gave up all these towers because they didn't have a lot of wave clear, which I guess is the flaw of their draft, they had a Kaisa, would have been nice to see a carrier that could maybe like clear a little bit better, maybe have a jungler that could assist like a Grogus or something, I don't, I don't know, I liked the Kassadin pick, I think if this game was remotely close that liquid had no answer for Kassadin whatsoever, I liked the idea, I liked the thought, I did not like the way Fnatic played around it, because when you have a Kassadin on your team, the other team is going to play the same way every time, which is to just do exactly what Liquid did, try to snowball, get as much gold off towers, get enough of a gold lead that you can just like brute force at home and not let it get to late game, but you, what you need to do is give up a little but not everything when you're playing this kind of thing, like that's how you play with Kassadin, the problem is a lot of teams get baited into, into thinking they can just like outplay everything and they give up too much and it's tough, I don't know, the second game, the second game was honestly over in the first five minutes and if Liquid didn't completely bongle at themselves, like that wouldn't have turned into a game, that turned into an absolute circus, it was like 50 kills in that game, it was like 27, 25 or whatever it ended, if Liquid didn't throw that, that was going to be a one way stomping too, I don't know if this is just like the tough thing with this, I don't know if this is just like, Fnatic sucks at internationals, like maybe they're just only good at, maybe they have a good read on all the European teams and they play well against the European teams and they're not good at adapting on the spot or dealing with the new thing, I have no idea, or maybe it's specifically just Liquid, just has their number, like they, something they do or something weird, they just can't deal with it and I don't know what it is, but Fnatic now, that's two international events where they've drastically underwhelmed, I know this was only one series but like, for fuck's sake, like if you're, if you're getting your ass kicked by the, by the LCS team, like come on guys, come on. And like, I don't know, I know I'm kind of shitting on Liquid because like I still have questions about this team, they played really well today, they did, not in the second game, if the first game was clinical, it's exactly what you should do against cast and the second game, they fucked up and still, and Fnatic still found a way to fuck it up and lose themselves. I don't know, I'm, I'm really pissed and, and honestly I'll be honest with you folks, like, I've been on a cold streak, I've been on a bad run here, it feels like shit, it sucks, and it's get, like, I used to, like, I've done this long enough that I can mostly just like laugh all, when you're having a bad run, like it just happens as part of the team, I've gotten to the point now, you know, handicapping league and various other things for more than a decade now, like, I've gotten to the point where like, it's, it's, it's, I usually can just laugh at all for just, you know, it's whatever, it's variants should happens, right? When you get like into these extended streaks, man, it get, I'm like legit getting frustrated, it's, it's really, really frustrating right now. In the second half of the season, I've lost like, like almost every single upstaked wager I've made, I was like a 20% ROI on anything that was like a double stake or higher, this, this for the year, like, in the first like three months, and I've thrown it all back, I think I'm down, I think I'm, I'm barely green on double stakes plays this year, which is abysmal. It's a lot of season left, you just gotta fucking pick yourself up over the map, man, this sucks, like, I'm having a tough time right now, um, little housekeeping, I'll, I'm gonna be doing a separate, um, a separate podcast for EWC tomorrow, just because I was, I was occupied watching the games today, uh, I'm gonna do this is just gonna be an LPL show, and um, I'll be doing the, uh, EWC later on tonight, I'll be updating the Patreon post later tonight and recording a figure, figure ballpark release time around four o'clock in the morning tomorrow, so let's get into the LPL, LPL starting up the actual summer regular season now, with the two conference format, um, for Patreon subscribers, I put the model power ratings, uh, for both the custom weighted and the correlated, uh, weighted, uh, models up on the, uh, Patreon that you can see a graph of the model power ratings for both, um, a couple interesting names to see there, uh, primarily anyone's legend being toward the top of the table is interesting, but, um, anyway, we'll talk about that in a little bit. Next match here, we have EDG, Edward Gaming, minus 230 on the money line, the minus 1/2 is at plus 133, the plus 1/2 is at minus 675 against rural, never give up, plus 185 on the money line, plus 1 1/2 at minus 162, the minus 1/2 is at plus 470, uh, notably, big roster switch up here for RNG, um, Juice getting the start, uh, Tango on Hwan Phong still returning, um, they are switching up their facilitating roles, facilitating roles, I mean, um, jungle and support, um, KJU and IWANDI stepping in in those roles, um, I don't know too much about KJU to be honest with you, uh, IWANDI, I do know a lot about it, I think IWANDI is probably one of the best supports, I mean, I think he's one of the best supports in the LPL, I think he's probably one of the more underrated players in the world, I mentioned in the, uh, preseason before summer started, I was wondering why nobody picked him up, um, he was probably just biding his time for a good contract or a good situation or something he liked, I don't know, but IWANDI is very, very good, super versatile, plays everything, uh, great, he's honestly, he's like a wizard when it comes to, to controlling vision, um, I used to do a lot of, uh, I don't do it as much anymore because I haven't had as much focused on, on DFS and because I found that like, long term it wasn't all that predictive doing like, uh, individual, like, like individual level models, uh, for league, uh, team just ends up being a lot easier to do, it's also just more forward predictive than, than individual stuff, but, uh, back when I was doing a lot of that, IWANDI always graded out as like an elite, like, world-class support player, like, he had, he had some of the best vision scores I've ever seen from anybody ever, um, the guy like, completely, he, he does such a good job of just like, controlling the game and keeping everything like, as knowledge and making it more just about like, hands for his team, uh, plays everything, uh, has played with good and bad 80 carries before, like, I, I think he could step into this situation and, and it could really change things, I think he's probably the best free agent addition that was made here in this little brief like, couple days off, I was kind of shocked that he wasn't picked up by somebody, but he's, he's a very, very good player, uh, I still have my questions about RNG, um, this is still, they're, I mean, they're switching up facilitators here and anytime you do that, like, it's not like they had terrible, facilitated, maybe Ming was, because he's kind of past his prime, I think Ming is probably the second best support in LPL history, but he didn't have it this year, he hasn't been that level, um, I think this is just an upgrade, strictly an upgrade, uh, I don't, I don't feel too strongly about RNG, they had a lot of macro issues, but if you end up like, change, sometimes it's good to just like change for the sake of change and maybe that could happen here, uh, EDG, interesting, um, it's, it's like this team, I think there's another team that kind of juked me this season, I've talked a lot about EDG and a couple other teams across the globe, but I think I got kind of juked by them this year, uh, they, they had a really, really good start, they looked like, like the eye test, they looked like a legitimately good team, they were playing slow, disciplined, grinded out league of legends in a league that doesn't do that, and they were doing it pretty well, didn't really matter that they didn't lead in a lot of games, but they were just grinding games out and had great agnostic economy and all that, that has since just completely fallen off cliff, um, this team hasn't, you know, they've only trained, they've only gone downhill, they've had some really, really bad losses, uh, and I think at this point, I'm, I'm willing to admit defeat on this one, throw in the throw in the towel and say that I think, I think I was just wrong on EDG, I think they looked really good for a couple series and I got baited into thinking that they had turned the corner and turned things around with all the roster changes and everything and bringing a bunch of veterans, I thought, okay, like it was looking pretty good, I just think this team's not that good, I think I was wrong, uh, I'm, I'm willing to admit that now, uh, this is weird, man, because like a few weeks ago, I would have said, yeah, this is no question, I wouldn't have played EDG, but, you know, the model data, the model makes this minus 138 plus 135 with little artificial vague on there. Um, like, I mentioned this on the podcast, but like, I think one of the things that I, that I've been struggling with of late is, uh, and I kind of like, this kind of popped up in the autopsy I was doing, there was like two main issues that were, that were kind of plaguing my results, one is like having strong opinions, I've just been wrong on like all my strong opinions and that's kind of sunk my P&L like big time, that, that's actually been the biggest contributor to my poor results the last like month or so, is that like, I've had strong opinions on things and I've just been wrong on all of those, because, and a lot of, and not all of them, but a lot of them was me going against my model and the models tell me one thing and I'm like, nope qualitatively, I'm overriding this and going the other way. If I think nowadays, if like moving forward, like I built these things for a reason, they're good, they're very good. I don't know, like they're performing better than I do and they're almost always going to, but I've, I've been overriding it a bit too much. I think there's a time and a place to do that. Like, when the qualitative layer is compelling and it's, it makes a really good point about something, it's kind of like making a point against just playing what the model says to play. I think at this point, like, I need to start operating that way instead of just going, like, there's a lot of situations where, you know, I might have a qualitative opinion on something, the model tells me one thing, I have questions about it, I look into it, I put a qualitative layer on top of it and I, you know, I don't like what the model says. Okay, if I don't like it, then I need to start going from just like not liking it to just like not playing it. Instead of going completely 180, the other way around and being like, nope, this is how I feel about this, this is going to go, this is the play. I need to be more like, okay, just don't play this then. Like, if the qualitative doesn't match up with the, with the data you're seeing, then just don't play it. Because every time that I've tried to override that, it's just gone bad for me this season. So, and you know, like, the way this kind of stuff goes, like watch it, watch it, you know, flip in reverse and go the other way, maybe I've just been running bad, I don't know, but I'm going to try to be doing that. The other thing that's, that's been, you know, causing a lot of issues, that's the primary thing, but the other thing that's been causing a lot of issues is that I'm kind of just like leaking percentage points to, to, you know, taking shots on like the money line and the spread. I'm going to try to simplify things and just, it's like, if just play whatever the bigger edges, or, or like either play whatever the bigger edges, or just play like, you know, one position, don't be like doing a, a series ladder, unless it's specifically part of the handicap that makes sense to it, you know, over the years, like that's just been my optimal way to play things, but like, I've just been leaking percentage points to that this season. I've even like downstakes, like a lot of that stuff too. I've been trying to play more primarily on like what I think is the actual play for something. I'm going to try to keep things simpler moving forward. I'm going to be playing derivatives and stuff too eventually. I kind of want to see how these teams feel this patch up. But like when it comes to like sides and stuff like that, if, if I'm playing the plus one and a half maps, just play the plus one and a half maps, like I'm not going to like play if the money lines the bigger edge play the big, play the money line, or like just like stuff like that in general. I've leaked too many percentage points to just like, you know, a team covering and not actually like being right on that front and only ending up, you know, instead of with like a 60% or a Y on a like a 60% yield on something, like a play, I end up with like a 30% yield because I, you know, they covered the mass rep but didn't cover the series or something like that. So I know this is like pretty rudimentary stuff and that like staking is kind of my one of my weak points in doing this. I'm trying to get better at it. But anyway, that's that's kind of a divergent. Sorry. Getting back to this series, I'm just going to play RNG plus one and a half maps at minus 162. I think like this is a bit of a leap of faith that like this roster, these two roster changes like work out and that there's not going to be a little bit of a weird getting to know each other like getting into the thick of things phase because like this is not this is a short turnaround. It's like this teams have like a full off season to get acclimated to one another. But I have a lot of respect for how good I want to use. And mostly, I just have a lot of questions about EDG and think that they might just not be that good and shouldn't be laying this kind of price to anybody besides maybe OMG. So I'm going to play some RNG to take a map here. Model made this like I said, minus 138 plus 125. The second match tomorrow in the LPLs anyone's legend minus 240 on the money line minus one and a half maps at plus 135 plus one and a half set minus 713 against fun plus Phoenix plus 192 on the money line plus one and a half set minus 165 minus one and a half is at plus 492. Ali Krakow shanks hope and Kyle for anyone's legend. Same lineup and same lineup for FBX as well as Jalahub Milky Way care doctor, I'm in life. Model made anyone's legend of minus 350 to FBX is plus 306 showing a slight value on anyone's legend here. Just barely over the threshold on this. The money line and the maps red price were a little bit there was a very very slightly bigger edge on the sweep for AL but as I'm going to talk about in just a second I think there's a little bit of questions here. There's two main qualitative angles to look at for this handicap. The first is do you think what we saw in the last couple matches from FBX is what we should expect moving forward. They looked a lot more like their spring cells with Milky Way carrying games and looking a lot more in form again? So that's the first thing. Do you think FBX is back? Or do you think they're going to regress? Because the last couple matches they looked a lot more like their spring cells like the fourth best team in the LPL level in spring. If you think that they're back then they're actually probably worth a look in this one like plus one and a half map since they're offside. The other qualitative thing to weigh into this is how good do you actually think anyone's legend are? You know by the models anyone's legend actually grayed out as the second best team in the LPL right now. I don't think anyone actually thinks that's the case. I think they're probably the best of the non elite three teams. Right now everything we've seen in summer they've done nothing but kind of dominate everyone. They have only have four individual game losses. They have all sorts of accolades here. They've got a lead at 20 and 72.2% of their games. 100% closing rate. Significantly to 20 minutes in 56.6% of their games which is absurd. They have a triple digit positive agnostic goal differential per minute. Top ranks in wind adjusted economy. Two of their four and only and two of their four losses greatest quality losses. There's not really much to pick apart here other than their group was not very good. Ultra prime ninjas pajamas in victus weibo. None of these teams have been that good. NIP is probably the best of that bunch and NIP still sometimes beat themselves. So like the qualitative angle to this is have anyone's legend just been beating up on a bad division. Like basically what we're trying to figure out here is is anyone's legend great? Are they a great team? Like a legitimately great team or are they just a good team that's been beating up on a shit division? And it's a tough thing to figure out. I kind of think like these situations end up being kind of funny sometimes because your instinct tells you that they might be overrated because of who they're facing. Because it means that like none of their dad like what is their data really telling you if none of these teams are any good right? But at the same time like it wouldn't like at the same time I would hold it against them if none of these other teams were good and they weren't kicking the shit out of them. So I'm somewhere in between on this like I don't think they're like I don't think they're necessarily a great team yet. I'm not over the hump on that front but I also don't think that they're like I think they're as good as you can be without me considering you a great team. Like from what we've seen so far like all we can look at is the evidence in front of us right? I don't know. I don't usually like laying big favorites with question marks like this like who they face is they're going to be their first out of out of division game here. Fun plus are a high ceiling team that can just explode out of nowhere but I think I'm going to play some anyone's legend here. I'm going to play the Moneyline. The map spread actually showed a bigger edge very very slightly but I'm going to play the Moneyline here just because it's first against a new opponent. Fun plus have that ceiling Milky Way can just steal a game on his own sometimes. Jala Hoog is actually capable of doing that as well. I have enough respect for that but I'm going to play the Moneyline here. Model made this like a 300 fair and so you have like about a little less than a 5% edge on market which is right around like my threshold for a play in summer as I'm trying to get more more particular. I know that sounds obscene if you like handicapped traditional sports but you know a lot more volatility here and a lot more vague to deal with too so I need I have a pretty high threshold for what's worth a play right now especially because you know how I've been running but I think anyone's legend Moneyline are worth a play here. I'm kind of not really planning a flag but like I'm just kind of trusting what we've seen and if it turns out that they suck we'll know in pretty short order. That's going to be it for me. I'll be back later on tonight with an esports World Cup show for tomorrow as well as an update to the patreon. Until then good luck and enjoy the rest of your 4th of July.
