The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my Patreons at patreon.com/jalatiLOL. There you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jalatiLOL, that's G-E-L-A-T-I-L-O-L. Good evening everyone, it's currently a little bit after 6 p.m. Eastern on Saturday, June 29th. Another absolutely brutal day here on my end, down to 4 units on the day. I ended up talking a lot about just the bad state that I'm in. Look, drawdowns happen in this business, or in this industry or whatever, but they do. It's just the nature of any kind of risk asset. You're always going to have down days and drawdowns, and things aren't always going to run your way, even if they do long-term, but no matter how many years you end up doing this, it still sucks when you're in the middle of these. There's just nothing that makes it, you end up getting calluses, like emotional calluses to it, where you're just like, "Yeah, it's whatever, it's just part of the game." But man, does it suck. I've posted on the Patreon that I showed the spring split, like my P&L after the spring split and after MSI, I think we were at +11 units on the year. We had a 2.3% ROY, which isn't elite, but pretty solid year considering the volume that I play. Now, I'm like all the way down, I'm negative now, straight up, negative ROY, negative net play. It's just been brutal. Sometimes you just have downturns and you don't want to overthink it, and you don't want to end up just tilting your way into oblivion, because sometimes you do just run bad. You could be doing everything right, but usually when I get into these downturns and I'm struggling, one of the things I like to do is just do an autopsy, go back and look, is there something I'm doing wrong? Because a lot of times, if there's a process-oriented thing that you can change or fix, that's on you. That is something that you're responsible for as a capper, as the one taking the risk, right? If there's something that you can improve on process-wise and you have bad process and you're continuing to do it, that's your fault. That's not the universe's fault, that's not the results fault or anything, right? If you're just getting unlucky, then that's a different thing, right? But there is a very clear difference, sometimes it's not clear, sometimes it's tough to figure out, but there is a difference between bad process and bad results, right? Like, bad process is something you can fix. Bad results is not something you can fix. It just happens sometimes. So, I'm going to be taking this night when I get some time later on to kind of just, like, figure out what's going on. Like, what have I had wrong this summer? I know a couple of the things just from the LEC dive that I did. That's actually been most of the losses so far this summer, as the LEC is just kicking my ass. But, you know, I had one this morning and I'm going to start off with this match. So, T1 vs KT Rolster, go figure. Of course, this is finally the time we haven't seen any ceiling games or any really good games from KT Rolster all year. We get probably their three best individual game grades for the entire summer split all today when I went against them, of course. Really, before they even lost the first game, that was looking like one of their best games of the split in game one of this match. And then, you know, T1 ended up catching them over committing to chem tech, you know, getting chem tech, so I'll punish them and ended up winning the game right off that. As someone that had back T1, I did not feel good in that situation. Like, I thought they were going to lose that game. I don't think it was like, you know, super heavy, but like, I thought they were like probably 45% to win that game at that point. They ended up winning it. Then there was this really, really weird long pause for an audio issue. The players sat on stage for like 20 minutes and they couldn't figure it out. So, they ended up having to do the draft backstage. It was an issue with like the coaching mic set up. So, they ended up just doing the draft backstage and then coming back on stage and playing the games. T1 got absolutely wall-upped in game two. Like, sometimes pauses cause weird stuff to happen. And I'm not blaming the pause for this, but like, it certainly didn't help clearly. Like, any kind of momentum they had. I mean, T1 were just kind of lethargic today anyway. Like, I don't think this was necessarily like, the pause didn't cause this, but it kind of maybe added to the fire, if that makes sense. T1 got absolutely rocked in game two. And then game three was like, kind of close, but they didn't really do anything to progress their games. And then Katie ended up turning and just, you know, ended up winning it right then and there. Katie tried to throw this game back to in the in the late game. They really, really messed up and they still ended up getting across the finish line with it. Just frustrating timing on this one. But this is, this is a classic example of why you don't overpay for sweeps. This is, I'll, I'll just call it as it is. This was a stupid wager. And I, I kind of, in any time I say I'm overpaying, it's basically saying, I'm accepting that this is a stupid wager and I'm being an idiot. And this is why you don't short in the hole. This in like an equity. This is why you don't overpay for a sweep in, or like a spread or something like that in, in, you know, handicapping. It's, it's, it's just stupid. It's bad business because you're overpaying. You're not getting good risk reward. Even if you win, like it's, it was a bad bet. Even if you win, right? I clearly, this was, I was a little bit tilted. And I don't usually get tilted anymore. I've been doing this long enough that like, I'm kind of just like numb to it anymore. And you know, that's a good thing for doing this that you don't get too, too dialed up. But this is pretty clearly a shitty bet and pretty clearly a tilted bet. And I'm getting a little bit frustrated. Yeah, I don't know how I held up their end of this. This was two one way traffic stomping is methodical win from homo life esports, ended up losing the T one end of this ended up losing that parlay to T one. So this was a disaster in the LCK this morning. Let's see, LAC, my adverse BDS, this was a little longer bloody game, but BDS were never really out of control once they got it. Mirwin got too far behind on the Renekton and Med didn't really have the frontline to navigate the late game. And that's just what ended up causing the loss for them here. SK gaming versus Carmine court. This was another slow grinder. Pretty close until the first Baron, but once SK got that, they closed it up pretty methodically. SK gaming very, very clean, closer is good macro team, even if I don't think individually, they're the best team. So g2 vitality, absolute ass kicking from g2 in this one. Of course, I double staked against g2, breaking one of my cardinal rules that you're noticing the theme of the day today. I double staked against g2, knowing I was breaking one of my cardinal rules. One of my cardinal rules is if you have a team that is clearly the best team in the West, or clearly the best team in the league, you don't double staked against them ever. You just don't. Think about that. That's like saying, oh yeah, I'm going to double down against the best team. That's just stupid. I justified it to myself yesterday saying the price was right. g2 have been abysmal against the kill spread this season. It was getting plus nine and a half for a team that had good underlines. Vitality have caused me so much money this summer. It's been unbelievably frustrating. I don't even think they're a bad team. You look at their underlines, and this is like a top four team, and they have a chance to just not make the playoffs, and then their year is done tomorrow, which is unbelievable. It's kind of a bad part about this format. I know a lot of people are hating on the A teams make the playoffs kind of thing, but the fact that that team's season could be done before July is kind of crazy after the roller coaster ride. We've been on with how good they've looked this year in general. You could say the same thing about mad lions, like mad and and vitality, just not even running cold, just like beating themselves too many times when it matters most. And you're going to see potentially both of them gone and done for 2024 after tomorrow, which is crazy. All right, road versus giant X. This was a game road probably should have won. They're probably like 80, 80 plus percent to win this, but they had a big enough gold lead where I think the comp maybe didn't matter. But once they they they weren't really able to progress the game, because they didn't really have a great way to get and engage on Jackie's or Patrick. A lot of defensive tools on the giant X side of things in this one, and rogue had very limited engage, and like they just did a really good job of playing protect the queen, and that's then giant X ended up scaling up in one. It's not like rogue had bad scaling, they just their comp was going to be a lot more difficult to execute without a huge mistake from the giant X carries and the giant X carries never made the mistake. So, a giant X ended up winning. Last match, fanatic Caratix. Of course, I paid for her fanatic to win or to cover, I overpaid for fanatic on a stupid alt kill spread, which is another dumb wager I made yesterday. Heretics somehow keep their 100% closing rate streak alive, even though their season might end tomorrow for for the year of 2024. Rough start in this one for the Mid-Verus from humanoid and razork, and once they got behind and the Mordekaiser got ahead, it was just really, really oppressive for them to deal with. And they were this game was just over in the first like 10 minutes, so frustrating, but kind of crazy. Heretics could end up being done for the year and have 100% closing rate for the summer, but that's that's kind of goofy. We already talked about how they've only had leads in like 30% of their games, so that's that's why. Yeah, it's bad. I'm running ice cold. I'm going to try to do an autopsy and figure out exactly what I'm doing wrong. If I'm doing anything wrong today, I made a couple just dog shit stupid wagers, and that's my fault, and I apologize for that, but just got to move on to the next one and see if we can figure this out. There's going to be a break for EWC over the next few days, so there's not going to be much going on, but I do have we do have an LCK and LAC post or a slate for tomorrow. All right, LCK week three, day five is less day before the LCK goes on break. They'll be returning Wednesday, July 10th. First up, we have B and K, fear X minus 203 on the money line, the minus one and a half massive plus 152 against okay, we're on savings bank, plus 165 on the money line, plus one and a half that minus 186 and the sweep is at plus 433. Model made this minus 174 plus 158 a little bit closer. This is just the third time fear X is going to be favored this season. The first two are against Nogshim, where they want two to one on in their first match of the year or of the summer. The second one was that to a shellacking the DRX laid on them in a loss. They've been a little bit shaky. This is a team that has good players, good hands, good chops, but they kind of have a little bit shaky on the macro side of things. Their decision making isn't always the best. They're still kind of very much the same team that we've seen in spring and really for most of 2023 as well. This is kind of a weird one. Breon probably should have KT, like two of KT Rolster, which is crazy, but we also know the deal with KT, they're just a wildly inconsistent team. So like, who knows if that's actually good on Breon's part? Like at the same time, it's like, yeah, that's something to be optimistic about on their point on their part. They did get a game off Kwang Don, who've looked great. They're in the next match. We'll talk about them in a bit. And they did get one off the RX, but other than that, they've lost every other game and the vast majority of them haven't even been remotely close to competitive. Usually with these weaker teams, you don't want to be laying big numbers on the money line, just because they're inconsistent. And you know, even if the other team is awful, it's like, it's more a matter of like, do you trust, do you trust a mediocre at best team to really reliably deliver enough to justify a minus 200 to 66% implied, right? I don't. I would lean toward the fearic side of things, I think, just because I think they're a little bit better of a team, have better players, but this is probably close enough that I don't think their reward is great on either side. So no play for me in this one. If you want to prey on the fact that both these teams have just been getting completely blown out in most of their games, you can play under 12 and half towers. The model actually showed an edge on that. You can get like minus 180 ish on that. I'm personally not going to be playing that. If you think we aren't going to put up any semblance of a fight in this game, you're probably better off just taking them outright rather than playing props. But like I said, the model really liked that under 12 and half towers. But again, a lot of it is because these two teams have just been getting smoked by everybody. So maybe they don't completely blow each other out of the water here. And that's not as good a wager as it would, as the results have shown so far. So no action for me in this one, lean under 12 and half towers, but didn't play it. A second match in the LCK, quantum freaks plus 182 on the money line, plus one acid minus 169, the minus one half is at plus 482 against D plus Kia minus 226 on the money line, minus one and half is at plus 139. These two teams are both four and one in mass score. They're currently tied for a second behind Gen G. One of them is going to pick up a loss here. A model made this pretty close to a pick them. I'll mention quickly, Guangdong have had a very slightly easier schedule. They've only really had one tough out and it was T one. Meanwhile, D plus have had to play against Hamwa and T one. And you know, but other than that, we've had three common opponents with these two with K T freer X and nong shim. I don't think the extra match of difficulty is really enough to heavily wait against your lean in this one, but I do think it's worth keeping in mind when we're dealing with just three weeks of sample here. That's an extra 25% of their schedule that's been against the challenging opponent. So just keep that in mind. D plus probably should be favored here. They are the better team, I think. But so far this summer, these two teams have looked different ways of doing it, but they've both looked pretty good. And I think generally speaking, they should be favored. I just think this is a little bit heavy handed and they shouldn't be favored by this much based on what we've seen. Guangdong look legitimately good. And I know it's been against a relatively soft schedule, but they look pretty good. I'm going to play Guangdong plus one ahead maps at minus 169 for one unit. The money line of plus 182 for point three units and the sweep at plus 482 minus one and a half maps for point one units. Just think this is a little bit too heavy handed a price. This should probably be closer to like minus 170 minus 180. I like taking a shot on Guangdong here. So moving on to the LEC list day of the regular season. LEC summer playoffs are going to be starting up after the sports World Cup. That'll be on July 12. Keep in mind, and I'll mention this as I go, but six teams already locked into playoffs here SKBDS, Fnatic, G2, Giant X and Carmine corporate already locked in. They're just battling for seating now. Heretics, Rogue Vitality and Mad are still battling for those final two playoff spots. The other two that don't make it are done for 2024, which is crazy because it's not even July yet. Keep in mind, you know, motivations for these teams. Some of them have shown that they care. Others have shown that they don't. It's also the last day in the LEC. Some of these matches are going to decide teams fate before the matches even happen. So a team could be eliminated before they even get there. The LEC is notorious for having a little bit more, you know, a lot more shenanigans and four fun games and whatnot on the final day of the season. It's part of what crushed me over the last few years in the LECs is, you know, trying to go into that in the final day or the final week and just getting smoked in it. So I don't want to mess with it anymore. I only have one position today, just spoiler alert. And a lot of it is just like leans, but I don't want to get involved on the last day of the season because just stupid shit happens on the final day of the season. It's like week 17 or 18, the NFL. So keep that in mind when you're getting involved here. Team Vitality plus 157 on the main line, SK Gaming minus 193. Model me this plus 135 against SK minus 164. Model is always like Vitality. Model Lakes Vitality is agnostic old agnostic economy this season. You know, I should probably just stop betting Vitality games at this point. Like literally, they've just been a money sink for me. Like every time I go for them, they're killing me every time I go against them, they've gotten me. So I should probably just be done with them. Thankfully, their season might just be done. So maybe I won't need to deal with them anymore. Model makes this a slightly tighter price. I think SK have been doing a lot better of like manually like organically engineering their own advantages. They have much better lake game decision making, much better lake game decision making matters a lot against the team like Vitality who has just had a lot of trouble throwing games and not being able to close games out cleanly. They still have an abysmal closing rate of, you know, just about a third of their games with a lead. Like, this is like the kind of team that SK specifically are uniquely equipped to take advantage of. I'd probably play SK kill spreads if you forced me to play something in this one. But I'm not, I'm just staying away from this. It's the final day of the season. I haven't been able to do anything about getting Vitality, right? So I'm just going to pass on this one. Lean SK kill spreads, but no play. Mad lines minus 130 against Rogue plus 108. Model made this minus 124 plus 102. So pretty close. These two are still battling for the one of the last two spots in the playoffs. Mid absolutely have to win. And they also need a lot of help. Even if they do to avoid elimination, I'm not 100% sure. But I think, I think if Vitality when mad is just done, so this is, or Rogue is just done, or mad is just done. I apologize. They're the team with one win. I don't really want to get involved here. I think this is close enough to price anyway, but just keep in mind that there's a chance that this is just a meaningless game for one of these teams after the first game. I'm not 100% sure on that. Like, you know, look into the tiebreakers yourself, but this for DFS purposes could end up turning into a clown fiesta if this is a meaningless game. I doubt it is, but I would expect kind of like a kitchen sink performance from these two. I think they're going to throw everything they have at it because like their season, like their year could just be done in a loss here. So I was looking at like old kill total overs, because I think this really could just be like a throw everything at it. Like any tricks up usually if you have do it. And, you know, this has the chance for one of these teams to go absolutely ballistic if that's the kind of game we end up getting. I didn't end up playing that myself, but just something I wanted to point out, especially for DFS players. Another angle here, the model actually flagged mad first blood as a strong play and it rarely flags first bloods in general. They have it to 74% first blood rate this season against 2028.6 for rogue. And you're getting minus 117 even if you manually compress for volatility in that market because it's close, you know, price it to a coin flip. It's still showed a decent edge. I'm not personally playing that because I don't again like the kitchen sink angle like makes me not sure like what we're going to get in this one. A lot of volatility in like how this game could go. So probably something you want to target for DFS, but I'm not playing anything in this one personally. Team BDS minus 145 against fanatic plus 120 model made this a pick them. Fnatic got blasted today, but it was kind of like a nightmare early game and, you know, they were against a team that has a good closing rate, even if they're not a particularly good team. This is my only play on the slate tomorrow. I'm going to be playing fanatic money line. I know it's like these two teams are both good. I think these two teams have been the best two teams in the LAC this summer. And I think they're basically a coin flip. I put them both in the same tier. All their numbers are pretty damn close to each other. I just think like neither of these teams should be a meaningful favorite over one another. I'm going to go with fanatic here. They're both probably still. I think they're both fighting for a one seed still, if I remember right on a BDS could clench a one here fanatic. Depending on the results of the other games could end up getting a one or forcing a tie break for one. So I would expect a game effort here if we don't get it from fanatic than so be it, but this is basically a coin flip to me. So I play fanatic money line plus 120 for one year. It's my only play on the slate tomorrow. I just think it's coin flip and I'm getting plus 120. So I'll take my chances. Heretics plus 425 against U2 Esports minus 600 model made this plus 206 minus 258 so much shorter. G2 looked a lot better today. One-way traffic win, utter domination. I just am pissed that I can't get anything with vitality right. But anyway, heretics did the same thing actually. Got off the snide, picked up a win, they'd been on a bit of a losing streak. Wouldn't shock me to see G2 just not want to play tie breakers and punt this one, but you know wouldn't shock me to see them completely obliterate heretics either. Heretics early game has been absolutely abysmal, this split, and G2 are hard enough team to close against and if you give them a lead they're just so nails if you give them any kind of lead. They rarely, rarely mess up games. So I mean this is asymmetric one way. I would not want to get involved with G2. If you force me, I mean the other thing where I work here is like heretics haven't clinched either and their year could be done and then you have also the you know old rivalry with the old G2 members on this team and everything. I would expect like a full on kitchen sink game from heretics too, like their year could be done after this and you're getting plus 10 and a half in that and I think it's possible that like I mean that's a huge spread to cover in a game that like is critically like it's their entire years on this game. I'm kind of talking myself I didn't end up playing anything in this one but I'm kind of talking myself into playing heretics plus 10 and a half kills but I also think G2 if they get a lead and they just start clowning around and really running the score up on heretics that that could go long gone. Heavy, heavy lean to heretics plus 10 and a half kills but I'm not going to play anything yet. If I end up changing my mind about that I'll put it up on the patreon later tonight but I'm kind of talking myself into it I'm like still on the fence art though. Last up we have giant X minus 137 against Carmine Corp plus 113 giant X minus 130 Carmine Corp plus 108 from the model pretty much dead on market there. Both these teams with clinch playoffs the most that they can do is move up or is to stay where they're at the worst that they can do is get down to as low as eight. I'm not 100% sure these teams are really going to give a shit about this match although I think they could see each other so this could be like a playoff prep match. Price feels right model makes it pretty close tough to know the motivations from this one probably just to pass from me. If you feel strongly one way or the other about who's going to show up in this one then you know feel free to put that to work but it's anyone's guess as far as I know so no action for me in this one that's going to be it in the LAC. I'll be back tomorrow with so there's there's no games on Monday but I'm probably going to try to have something either just like an autopsy of what's going wrong for me so far in summer and moving forward or I'll do something for the esports world cup tomorrow or Monday but we have a couple days off here I'm going to try to take it to to kind of you know recharge figure out you know what's going bad what I can fix and so we I might not have a podcast on tomorrow or Monday I'll probably do something for the WC you can expect that probably later in the week Monday Tuesday something like that I'll try to keep you updated there on that front but until I see you again best of luck and have a good one
