The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my Patrons at patreon.com/jilladellol. There, you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jilladell. That's G-E-L-A-T-I-L-O-L. Good afternoon everybody, it's currently well evening, I guess. It is currently about 5.35 pm Eastern on Friday, June 28th, 2024. Getting a little bit of a late start here because I also got the L-E-C done for tomorrow. Trying to get all my work done because I'm going to be out late tonight. Quick recap of this morning, just another, the Cold Street continues. It's been brutal. The last two weeks has been just nightmare fuel. Yeah, I thought we had a nice bounce back day yesterday and just gave it all back today. It's the way it's been going. Just when you think you're bouncing off the ground here, you get kicked right in the teeth. It went 1-6 on our bets day. The only thing that cashed was the over 1-1/2 barons in map 2 of JDG/EDG. Guess that's where we'll start. One way traffic for JDG in the first game of this match. It took a little while, but they had a huge lead on Yagal's Tristano, so they didn't really need to force the issue too much. Game 2 was a little bit closer through the first 15 minutes or so and then again, once they turned the corner, it was just done. Kind of a little bit of a hiccup on the second baron, but yeah, I don't know. This was not particularly close. JDG controlled a wire-to-wire. We missed our kill spread by 1 kill. We got hooked. The plus 8.5 lost because they won by 9, but we did get the over 1.5 barons home. Actually, if we ended up getting that, it would have been a much more reasonable day. I think we only would have ended up, we would have been down like one unit instead of three, but you know, is what it is. The other LPL match, FPX for Thundertalk. First game was chippy, violent, bloody, but a one-way traffic FPX win. The second game, oh man, just when I was talking positively about both these teams. So the second game in this series, Thundertalk set up like a cross map and they were setting up a dive and you ever have those moments like right before disaster strikes where you see it coming. You just know it's going to happen and you're already resigned to the loss. That's kind of what happened here. The beginning of this game, they tried to set up a 3v2 dive on the bottom lane. The minion wave was running out and you could just tell that they were going to force it anyway. TT force it. Feather essentially dives under tower, just dies, and you know, it was 3.0 for FPX in no time. This game was essentially over from that point or so I thought. And then, fun plus, like just kind of gave away a really, just had like a really sloppily thought. Like it looked like they weren't calling targets. It was like a dragon pit fight and TT actually picked up a couple kills, picked up a bunch of dragons. They actually stacked a bunch of dragons in this game. They got an early, they got a four dragon soul and then got elder and still lost this game somehow. So this game went from like, "Unlusable" for fun plus, who blew up in like a 3,000 gold lead in the first like 7 minutes to like, "Unlusable" for fun plus Phoenix and then "Unlusable" for Thunder Talk and then Thunder Talk lost it. So, you know, I don't know, it's kind of weird. I still, this was one of the worst games of the year from Thunder Talk and they still almost beat FPX. You know, it wasn't pretty and I think both these teams are flawed. That's why they're not elite teams, but like, I don't know, I have a feeling Thunder Talk is probably just going to roll the bottom conference. Like, maybe I'm wrong on that because like some of the teams that are down there right now, it's possible they don't. But like, I kind of thought it was possible that they just like, they're probably the best team of that bottom eight, like by a margin. I think they're probably like the eighth best team in the league, eighth or ninth best team in the league so that they should roll that bottom half. But anyway, ended up losing on that as well. We had Thunder Talk Map 2, thought it was dead. Actually, I ended up going to sleep and then like, just with the broadcast on. And then I turned it, like, I heard that fight where they turned it and I was like, fuck me, I gotta watch this now. So I watched the end of this game and then I ended up going to sleep. The rest of the stuff today I just had to do on VODS. Genji, Dragon X, or Genji, DRX, not close. 20, sub 21 minute win in the first game. The second game was close for the kills, but it was not remotely close in the actual gold. Genji are just a wagon. They're a bunch of tryhards. They don't mess around. They're a super serious team. That's all there is to it. First match in the LCK was Quandung or Spherix. The first game was too lopsided for it to get over. This was an utter shell lacking from Quandung freaks, but we only got 24 kills because they were up too much. Like, they won too hard. This game was ready and primed to go over and they just won too hard. The second game also looked ready and primed. The second game was a wild trip of someone that had to kill total over. So the first, nothing happened other than Quandung getting map leads for the first 20 minutes of this game. I think there was a total of 7 kills in the first 20 minutes. Maybe less than that. I think it was less. It might have been like 5. Quandung had a 4 or 5k gold. I think it ended up getting up to 6 or so. Blew this game open. It looked like it was just going to be an under. Then they threw a fight. Furex picked up a bunch of kills. I think it was like 88 or 7 or something like that. Then I was like, "Oh shit, we're back on. All of a sudden, we're back live." Furex actually ended up cutting it all the way back and had to lead themselves. Then they ended up overstaying, getting aced, and then once they got aced, it was enough for Quandung to win the game. It didn't look like it when it happened. I was in the esports department discord talking as that happened. I was like, "Oh, I don't think they're going to win. Oh shit, I guess they do have enough time." Yeah, one more reset. It's possible that it would have got there, but 26 and a half. Probably not. I don't know, but it might have, because the gold leave was pretty even at that point before Quandung literally just won the game. I don't know. This is a very frustrating day, but this is what it is. We ended up down with a stupid amount. We ended up down 3.34 units for the day this morning, just brutal. I just can't get out of this rough stretch going on here, but all right, on to the next one. All right, a little bit of housekeeping before I get started on tomorrow's slate. This is the first match of the, or actually, I'm sorry, not the first match. Holy cow, I'm exhausted. This is the last match of the placement stage in the LPL. Luckily for us, both these games should end up mattering, but the second one won't if the first result happens a certain way. But before I get into all that, the esports World Cup is happening. I know a lot of people have opinions on all the sports washing stuff and everything like that. I get it. All of the major leagues, the four leagues that are sending teams to this event, or the four leagues that are sending teams to this event are going to be taking a short break in the middle of the summer split here. So LPL is done with the placement stage. They're going to start up with the summer regular season with the two conference format on July 5th. So it'll be next, I think, what's that Thursday? Before the July, I think, is Wednesday, right? So starting up again next Thursday, the LCK is taking an extended time. They're going to be taking off until Wednesday, July 10th. So the following week, LEC will be doing, you know, they're actually finishing up their regular season this week. So they're going to be back on July 12th to start playoffs, kind of a weird situation to have playoffs after such a long layoff. But LEC has always kind of done that, so I guess it's not that weird. LCS is also going to be taking a break. I think they come back the 15th if I remember right, but I could be misremembering that. Anyway, I am probably going to be doing content for EWC. It's a short tournament. I don't think there's going to be too much, like, I don't think it's going to be too much of a work overload for me. I might not have all the bells and whistles on everything, but I am probably going to have some short posts and probably do a podcast on it. I'll talk about outrights probably at the end of the, like, after this weekend, maybe on Sunday night, I'll take some time and do a podcast or a Patreon post about outrights for that. It's kind of a, it's a super short format. It's just an 18 bracket, and that's the end of it. So it's not going to be long. It's only going to be, I think, for like a few days. So, but yeah, so if we're going to have some time off in the leagues, it will be good to kind of get it, get re-aclamated, get recharged a little bit, but just wanted to mention that before we get into the slate today. So, week four, day six, last day of the summer placement stage. First match is ultra prime plus 304 in the winning line plus 1/8 minus 1/13 minus 1/8 plus 734 against ninjas and pajamas minus 4 or 2 in the money line minus 1/2 is at minus 107. If ultra prime win this match, the second match will not matter because they all have clinched the other, the final seed into the upper conference. If they lose, then it will matter. That's all you really need to know here. Ultra prime can't catch ninjas and pajamas, ninjas and pajamas have already clinched this. We're not seeing any lineup change for this match up. Model made this much closer. Obviously, you're paying a premium tax for the favorites here, but this is offside and IP or offside. I have zero appetite for ultra prime, even at this price. They've actually, their numbers aren't terrible, but it's because they've been winning a lot qualitatively. I still think this team is bad. Like, I don't think they're really, like, the eye test does not work. Like, it's like, you wake high in the cat have been great this season. They've kind of carried a lot of games for this team, but, you know, they're against rookie in this situation. And appear are a good team, even though they're just frustratingly inconsistent. They're macros. Shit. I don't really ever want to get involved with an IP is huge favorites because of the aforementioned macro issues that they have. But I think, like, if you forced me to play something in this one, I'd play on IP minus one and a half maps because, like, I, basically, like, I think we're, we are at the top for ultra prime. I mean, you can make a case that we were at the top before they're lost to Invictus. That was probably the actual top, but I think we're, we're probably going to see a downturn for this team. I still don't think this team's good. I'm not buying it. Like, I think they've won a bunch of games that they had no business winning primarily because of opponent error, not because of anything that they're doing to create that opportunity. That said, like, because there's, like, basically no motivation for an IP in this match, I don't really want to get involved with them as big favorites. Like, for that reason, I also just don't want to get involved with them as big favorites anyway. Sometimes I will just, and, you know, know who I'm getting in bed with and close my nose and just be like, you know, whatever, if an IP beat themselves and so be it. But I, with nothing on the line with everything on the line for ultra prime, I mean, there's a case we made that ultra prime doesn't even care. Maybe they don't want to go to the upper conference and maybe they throw this match. As part of why I don't like this format, it's kind of cool because we've seen, like, when you get good groups that are interesting competitive, I like this format. When you don't, there's possibility for shenanigans, so I don't want to get involved with this. I feel like it's just a one-way trip to frustration regardless of what you do in this match, so I don't want anything to do with this match. Lean and IP to sweep probably the most likely outcome still. No, it is the most likely outcome still, but I don't want to get involved with this with the motivation and the price. Second match is Invictus Gaming plus 190 on the line, plus 1/2 that minus 155, the underdog sweep is at plus 526 against Waybo Gaming minus 237 on the line, minus 1/2 that plus 127. Waybo have obviously been a tremendous disappointment, maybe the most disappointing team globally so far this summer. Invictus are starting, you should know me again, so keep that in mind here. A model made Invictus a favorite here, a short favorite, not much more than a pick on, but keep that in mind. That's how bad Waybo have been this summer. Like, they're not, like, dumpster diving in terms of their underlines. They're kind of just like in the middle of the pack, but you watch this team on tape and they look completely disinterested in playing League of Legends when, you know, the game's not going their way. And even when the game is going their way, they're not exactly a clean and methodical team either, so they're not a team that you can really trust to close necessarily. It's also possible this is a meaningless match, maybe keep that in mind for DFS if you think this could be, you know, a Bonanza, a kill Bonanza. I think a lot of this handicap comes down to whether or not you think Waybo are going to eventually regress back to where they were in spring, which was like a good team, but not a great team. I'm not buying it. I'm calling bullshit on this. I know this is potentially a meaningless match, but with Yushinomi back in Invictus looked a lot better. They had a clean victory, and I know Yushinomi aren't good, but I think Waybo might not be very good either. If Yushinomi might have better underlines than Waybo do, by a mile, and Invictus slapped them in their last series. So like, Yushinomi being back, maybe Invictus figuring some things out. I still don't think Invictus is very good either, but like, has Waybo done anything, anything at all this entire season to be worn. So it's a warrant laying 70/30 odds to anybody, because we're basically getting close to 70/30 implied on this. Is this team 70% to beat anybody for real, from what you've seen this summer? Like, yeah, looking at the players, yeah, you could maybe make a case for that. Maybe that's what's going on here, but like, I'm calling bullshit on this. I played Invictus plus 190 on the Moneyline for one unit. Invictus minus one to half maps of plus 526 for 0.1 units. If you want to be more conservative, you could just take the map one Moneyline, or since they'll have choice in map one, or you can take the plus one and a half maps, but I played the full series. I think this is closer to a coin flip than the market thinks by a mile. It's still Invictus. It's still frustrating. There's still a gigantic talent this advantage for Invictus here besides the top lane. But I just don't think Waybo are very good. So where's the esports department meme when you guys need it? Where's the meme? Waybo isn't that good. That's the meme, insert meme here. Anyway, that's it for the LPL today. I'll see Kay, Slade, week three, day four. Again, they're going to be going on break. We get the Telecom War to start off here. A decidedly less interesting telecom war than any of the ones we've seen recently. T1 minus 665 on the Moneyline, minus 1/2 is at minus 1/50. 7 against KT, Rollster plus 464 on the Moneyline, plus 1/2 and plus 1/29. This sweep is at plus 1,054. Alright, so if you look at just the summer data, this market price actually isn't that far off. If you look at the full season data, there's probably enough value on KT to get involved. But the theme of the day here in the LCK is we're going to see this in the next match too, and I think I'm going against my model in both LCK matches today and just making an intuitive gut handicap and call here. KT have looked like pure dog shit. And for a little while, I thought it was maybe just that they had a brutal starting schedule because they faced four of the top five teams, and now T1 are going to be the fifth team. They got a softball in Breon in their last match on Wednesday morning. They won that match, but they looked terrible in that match. And even in a win, that match kind of confirmed to me that I think... I had a thought going in that maybe it wasn't just the tough schedule. Like, KT's underlines have been abysmal. Like, the worst team in the five majors abysmal. Like, worse than all the LCS teams underlying statistics. And I kind of like tossed around the idea that, like, so, like, usually when you have a team that's just against the tough schedule, they're underlying to take a small hit because good teams are good, but usually you see, like, some semblance of a foundation there to be like, you know what? Like, they're probably going to be okay. They were just against the good teams here. That was not what we've seen from KT so far. They've been, like, Molly walked in every single match so far. And even against Breon, who's, like, arguably the worst team in the league, one of them, they struggled. They probably should have lost 2-0 to Breon. Let that sink in. Like, there's no way. And you know what? If KT proved me wrong and they snap out of it and they get back to their springways where we back them as big dogs, fade them as big favorites, that's fine. But we haven't seen any of the ceiling games this season. I think KT might just be bad. Like, just genuinely terrible. If we're not getting those upside ceiling games anymore, then, like, we're only getting, you know, not even floor games. We're getting in the basement, crashing through the floor. Like, the water heater, you know, was leaking and rotted the floor and fell through the floor. Right? I think that might be what we're getting with KT Rolster here. If you want to buy the dip, I get it. The price is right too, but I think I'm going against model suggestion here. I'm playing T1. T1 are just going to shit stomp this team tomorrow, I'm pretty sure. It's possible that T1 are kind of like looking past this, looking ahead to the Sports World Cup and KT surprise them. If they do, then so be it. I'll live with it. It's fine. But I played T1 minus 1.5, mass minus 157 for one unit. T1 haven't been perfect this summer, but like, they're in good enough form and KT just looks like a complete dumpster fire right now that, I mean, this is another, we're going to see another match later where we have more than a 200 agnostic gold differential permanent difference between the two teams. That's another one here. That's like division three versus Alabama in football level of, you know, divergence. So I'm going against my model. I'm playing qualitative like gut cap here and saying, you know, this is usually a bad thing to do. Like when you're handicapping, it's all about how things are relative to price. But I'm just calling it spade, spade today. And I'm taking, I'm looking at two world class teams even though I don't like Hamah that much and I'm just going to play the chalk. So T1 minus one to have mass minus 157 for one unit. I'm also going to parlay T1 and Hamah minus one and a half maps at plus 135 for one unit. Skipping ahead, spoiler alert, I guess. I'm playing Hamah minus one and a half maps at minus 230 for one unit as well. So total three unit staked on the double favorite sweep tomorrow. A little bit aggressive on my front, but I just don't see it. I guess we'll touch on this second match. No action plus 744 on the Money Line plus one and a half plus 185 minus one and a half is at 16 to one. Hamah life minus 1200 on the Money Line minus one and a half is at minus 230. Hamah dropped two maps, two maps spreads and a series as favorites this season already, which is like double what they did in spring and is like halfway there to all of what they did in 2024 already. The reason they did that is because they kind of took some chances and drafts in a couple games. It's possible we see that again, but if we do see that, it's easy to take a live map map that on Nogshim. You're getting like four to one on the map spread or not the map. You're getting like four to one on the map Money Lines for Nogshim. So if we end up seeing like another Hamah draft that's like outside the box, getting outside their comfort zone, I'd be willing to maybe take some risk off and play some Nogshim live. But that's the way I would approach this match and I'm overpaying. I know it's bad, you know, process and whatever, but I just think like, I don't know how I think maybe Hamah long term, it's good for them to try something like this, but I think short term, the coaching staff is going to be like fearing for their jobs and just want to make playoffs and whatnot. So I think it's possible now that they just go back to their comfort zone and we don't see as much of that messing around anymore, but I could be wrong. But this is an easy enough position to like take an early position on and then, you know, take risk off live if you have to. LEC week four, day one, four teams have clinched. I think it's BDS, SK, Fnatic and G2 and whom I'm forgetting. I'm forgetting somebody, G2 and it's BDS, G2, SK and Fnatic have clinched play also already. Fnatic, SK and BDS are currently tied for first. They could all get first place. G2 could win out and if any of those three drop a game, they could end up getting first place as well. So it's possible, like the top of the table should stay motivated somewhat. Just keep in mind again, like we have the esports World Cup here. It's possible like Fnatic and G2 don't really care about this week. They've already clinched playoffs. They might be looking ahead to that tournament. Might be doing prep for that tournament more than prep for their matches this week. I'm kind of operating under the assumption that, like, I'm operating under the assumption that they are going to be trying this week. But just keep in mind that, like, it's possible you just get a complete no show from both of them this week and that'll have to factor into your handicap. I will mention that briefly in a little bit. Let's go right into the slate here. Fnatic in the first match minus 297 against Heretics plus 233. Model made Fnatic base. Model actually made this pretty much dead on market. Looking at this initially, my first take on it was that it felt about right. If you, like, I would understand wanting to fade Fnatic based on, like, the look ahead spot and situational spot. But I do think they're going to be trying to get first seed. I do think they're going to be taking this week seriously. I said the same thing about G2. I was a little bit more skeptical on them just because of their current form. But, um, Fnatic have had excellent form this summer. You know, who hasn't is Heretics. Heretics, uh, this would be a spot where I would take a shot on an underdog against both these teams going to the EWC. Just because it's, like, a weird, like, what's the motivation? But, Heretics are not the team that I would do that with. Heretics have had one of the worst early games in the five major leagues. And, like, Fnatic are so, so good early that, like, and they're relatively strong. Like, so they've won every game they've had a lead at 20 this summer. They had a pretty good closing rate in spring as well. It was generally a team that you can rely on. Heretics have just not led very often, and that is the, you know, stem of all their problems or a lot of them. Um, I don't think it's any one thing, but they're getting themselves into a whole every single game. Like, even Rogue and JynX have had better early games than them. Like, they've at least shown punch. They're not getting completely blown out early. Heretics are just getting smoked every game. And I think it's kind of a combination of champion pool and, um, like, just general, like, prep. And then, you know, individual players kind of having misplaced sometimes. Like, usually it's, it's, I don't think it's any one thing. I think it's kind of a systemic overall problem. Generally, it's harder to fix this kind of stuff than it is to fix, like, team's closing games. It's harder to actually, you know, replicate that in practice. But a lot of closing games out is just, like, essentially, like, book knowledge. It's like, uh, just, like, going over the theory and understanding what you're supposed to do and following the instructions. It's hard to engineer that, like, in an actual practice environment. But it's a lot easier to coach that into a team than it is to fix, like, early game issues most of the time, unless it's something really simple. Um, yeah, I don't know. Yeah, I don't know. I don't normally, like, I want to get involved with Fnatic here because I think this is two teams that are just in polar opposite form right now. It's possible that they're asleep at the wheel, but I'm going to do something I almost never do. And I'm going to, I'm going to, like, pay up for a cheaper kill spread here. I'm going to pay -159 for Fnatic, -6.5 kills at one unit, which is just, like, something I would almost never do in most situations. But, like, eight and a half is a huge total to cover, even if I think a team is way better. Uh, you could maybe shoot for a middle here, but, like, no, I'm, I'm paying up. It's usually bad for him to do this. It's terrible handicapping. You're usually overpaying for it. But I do think Fnatic, like, there's enough outcomes in this series where Fnatic are just one-way traffic and just completely shit-stomped the early game that, like, there's just going to be, like, 60% of the games in this series are going to be, like, non-games. You know, like, 60% of, like, Fnatic wins are non-games. Maybe, like, maybe, like, 75% of them are non-games, and, and I think that's, that's possible. So, it's a little funky, a little weird. The model actually flagged the over 12 and a half towers. Fnatic have gone over that total in 85.7% of their games this season, which is hilarious for a team that's won as much as they have and as decisively as they have. But, I'm not personally playing that because I think it could be a one-way traffic hence playing the kill spread. Second match is Rogue plus 100 against Giant X minus 121. Model made Giant X slightly bigger favor, which makes sense. But, you know, I don't, I'm not going to be laying a price with Giant X. As bad as Rogue have looked, like, and Giant X have looked, you know, promising and chippy, and they're a little bit better, but they're still not a very good team. And I think this is, like, just, my initial take looking at this price was, like, yeah, that's about right. So, I'm not playing aside in this one. I do like the over 12 and a half towers, though. Both these teams have gone over 12 and a half and 71% of their games so far this summer versus the implied price of just short of 56%. So, pretty nice edge there. Over 12 and a half towers minus 127 for one unit in Rogue Giant X. G2 minus 500 against team vitality plus 367. Model made this minus 152 plus 125. Obviously, G2 have been a little bit, you know, lethargic to start the summer. It's possible that they are looking ahead to the sports World Cup. Slash MSI hangover, slash the schedules just wearing on them. Maybe it's just a combination of all three. But they did hand fanatic their first loss. It was competitive match between the two of them last week. G2 have been kind of rounding in the form a little bit, but after that slow start. Vitality, it's been the opposite. Vitality has been unbelievably frustrating this summer. Their underlines are excellent. They're getting off the great starts in games. They just can't seem to close with any sort of consistency. They've won just one third of the games where they've had a lead at 20 minutes despite having a statistically significant lead at 20 and 57% of their games. That's an absurd rate. And I know we're working with a smaller sample in the LAC and their best of ones, but that's one of the bigger divergences I've seen in a while. It's probably the biggest divergence, like since maybe the liquid in 2023, where they just could not close a game for their life. But we saw with that liquid team that once they figured out how to do that, they were actually just good. I still think Vitality are good, and they've unfortunately just been a bugaboo for them. They just haven't been able to close games out. As I mentioned earlier, it's a lot easier in theory to coach a team up on how to not lose games. Like, how to properly close a game up, because it's a lot of just like textbook studying the decision-making involved more than like you have to actually experience it. But, you know, sometimes teams just struggle with this, and there's certain teams and certain rosters that will always struggle with it. It's possible that this is just the thing with them, but I don't think, I think generally I tend to go to war with teams that are putting themselves in advantageous situations because it's easier to, you know, finish that out than it is to get the advantageous position to begin with. G2 are a nightmarishly difficult to close games out against, but I think you have to take a shot on Vitality here. The price is just too good. It's possible G2 are looking ahead to the WC. This is a massive, massive price on a team with elite underlines in Vitality. I know they've struggled to close, but I'm going to play a double stake here. It's as sickening as it's been... I've been on the losing end of almost all but one of these Vitality throws. I was actually on the other side of one of them, but I've been on the other side. Vitality calls me a bunch of money last week. And as sickening as it is to go to war with them again, I just think the price is too good to pass up here. So I'm playing, I'm upstaking this, and I almost never upstake against G2, but I think the situation is right and the price is right to take a shot here. I'm playing an alt kill spread. Team Vitality plus nine and a half kills at plus 103. You could also play the plus ten and a half at minus 125. I'm playing 1.5 units on the plus nine and a half kills. I think there's a lot of game states here where Vitality jump out to a lead and just bungle it. Or they just win outright, wire to wire. Plus nine and a half kills a huge, huge number for a team that's got good, good underlines. So I'm also going to play a half unit on the Vitality money line at plus 367. Kind of an aggressive stake here. I almost never, it's kind of like a rule for me not to double stake against G2 ever because they're the best western team. But I think you're getting a good enough price here that, and the situation with EWC and all that, and having clinch playoffs already. So here's the other aspect. G2 have clinch playoffs already, but if you want to talk about seating, they could go as high as one, but the lowest that they can go, even if they lose both games this weekend, is dropping from four to five. If they're currently fourth seed. If they even give a shit about seating, the worst they can do is four to five. If they win out, it's possible they get a one-seater, they get tiebreakers or whatever. But I think like situationally, they're probably comfortable enough that this match doesn't really, they're not going to be hyper-motivated. G2 are good enough that they might just like whoop this team anyway. You have to keep that in mind. But it's very, very rare that you get good situational spots and good prices against the team this good. I almost never double-stake against G2, just as a rule, but I think the price is right here. So next match, SK Gaming 1 is 200 against Chromium Core plus 163. A model made SK close to a minus 300 favorite, a bigger favorite than the market. SK have been legitimately good. I have some questions about the foundational aspects of their game, but they've been very, very good. Like the reason I'm questioning their foundational aspects, like you look at like win-adjusted economy for them, they're not all that great. They're not all that special. There's times where they probably should have bigger leads than they do. But they have great decision-making, and I'm still not buying Chromium Core. I'm still not. They're currently your fifth seed, but you look at the dichotomy in the LEC right now. The fifth seed has three wins. So, like, I don't know, like, the Chromium Core is going to be motivated to win this a win, and if they win one game this week, they clench playoffs. So, they're going to be, you know, game turkey for this, but I think SK have been a much better team. It's possibly getting a sleep performance from SK because they're already clench playoffs, but I think SK Moneyline is the way to go here. SK Money, SK could get a one seed, which is wild. But I'm playing, model made this a very cheap price for SK. I'm going to play one and a half units on SK Moneyline minus 200. If I get burned so be it, the LEC's been roasting me all year, then, yeah, it's fine, I can live with it. But this is a cheap price. I'm still not buying Chromium Core. Nothing on film has shown me anything different, just because they picked up a couple wins does not mean they've rited the ship. And their underlines are not particularly great either. So, I like SK gaming here. Last up, we have Medline's Core plus 237 against Team BDS minus 302. Medline's currently one win, the only team in 10th place, not eliminated from playoffs yet. But they're going to need to win both their games and get a lot of help this weekend. It's possible that they are already eliminated before they even play this game tomorrow. So, you have to keep that in mind. Model made this surprisingly close to the market. There is a 280 gold, agnostic gold per minute delta between these two teams currently. BDS are playing excellent League of Legends. It's kind of wild. You know, the evolution of this team from winter being like the atom one tricks games and, you know, looking at Worlds last year to a team that's genuinely fundamentally very, very good. That also has all that stuff in their back pocket for when they need it. BDS have improved folks. They've proved me wrong. I was skeptical of this team. They're legitimately good. You know, this is a huge price. And Medline's are backed into a corner, must win situation. BDS have already clinched. BDS are, you know, seeking the one seed still, but I would expect them to be motivated. But this is usually, this is a huge price and the best of one for a team that I thought was competent in Medline's. But it's been a precipitous fall from grace for this team. Like they're sub-1600 agnostic economy now. They're minus 120 agnostic gold differential per minute, which is the second worst in the league right now. It's kind of crazy, but it's tough to really reconcile that big of a gap. It kind of shows that I think there's like a world difference here. So this BDS are passed from me. Nine and a half is a huge kill spread. You could maybe talk me into playing Medline's plus nine and a half in the desperation spot. That's probably, that's probably the sharp play here. I don't have the stomach for it. Like, I just think there's too many situations where BDS just blow the early game open and blow this out. Like, Medline's, Medline's have had all these terrible numbers and that's without early games being abysmal. Like, they've actually had decent early games and a few games and just can't do much with it. Like, they're another team that struggle to close with the lead. You know, they've only won a third of their games with the lead as well. So, I don't know. This is, Med plus nine and a half kills is probably a hold you no special, but I don't want to get involved with this. So no action here. It's possible that Med just mail it in because they're already eliminated before this gets there. If they're not eliminated as the day goes on, like, right before this match starts, maybe I'll take some bad lines plus nine and a half kills, like live tomorrow afternoon, I'll put it up on the Patreon. Long post today, long podcast. I'm going to see Dave Chappelle tonight. It should be a blast. I'm going to hang out with my brother and one of my friends. It's going to be a good time. Everybody have a wonderful Friday night. I will see you all with more shows and podcasts tomorrow.
