The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my Patreons at patreon.com/jalatiLOL. There you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jalatiLOL, that's G-E-L-A-T-I-LOL. Good evening everybody, it's currently about 5.07 PM Eastern on Sunday, June 23rd, 2024. Gonna quickly go over this absolute bloodbath horror movie of a weekend we just had. Still, LCS is currently in between games, we're still pending the LCS result. I do have a position in the second LCS match, I'm obviously not gonna be able to recap that until later on, but I'll do that on tomorrow's show, but it's looking right now if things go the way they've been going, that this is gonna end up being either my fifth or sixth worst one or two day result that I've had in the past seven years. Doesn't feel great. How did it happen? I kind of got Whipsawed playing a macro trend in the LAC for almost the entirety of this loss. It's like nine units worth of this loss has been that, you know, going into this weekend, kill spreads of eight and a half are greater, covered in seven out of eight games in the LAC this summer. Made a lot of sense given how teams were playing, it wasn't just, you know, flooky or lucky or whatever. Given the way games have played out in the LAC, it made a lot of sense that kill spreads were covering. It wasn't just a weird run, and then this week I played four of those, all four of them whiffed. Tower totals didn't actually do as terrible, they went four out of ten for a net of minus 1.5 units. So really all told, we ended up like, it was really only, I was really only down like, like four, like five and a half units of that nine on the actual macro trends that I played. So obviously that didn't work out. These were blanket plays that I played. I talked about them on those shows. I just lost a bunch of, like I lost a handful of money line positions this weekend too, which was just brutal vitality, vitality again today with just a huge throw, not as bad as the other two they had earlier this season, but that's now, that's now three pretty, pretty big throws that they've had already this summer. Just that, man, that team is just juking me out of my shorts. That really ultimately that's been the theme of this horrible weekend is that I got juked. I got juked a few times. I mean, I got juked by EDG, anyone's legend and Weibo. I didn't end up playing anyone's legend, but I got juked by Weibo and EDG. I think a lot of people got juked by those two. Vitality through yet another game. LEC looked in general like we were going to get competitive matches like we'd been getting. There was like basically two competitive games this entire week in the LEC. And yeah, I don't, just frustrating. This is a brutal weekend. This brings us into the red for the year for the first time in a while. That sucks. You know, obviously it's a marathon, not a sprint. You just got to kind of pull yourself up by the bootstraps and keep grinding, but fucking health, this doesn't feel like shit every single time. It's downswing suck. It doesn't matter how long you've been dealing with risks, whether you're counting cards or trading or betting sports or just DFS down swings happen. It blows. You feel like shit, but the only thing you can really do is shake it off and keep grinding. Try to maybe look at your process, see if there's something that's going wrong or try to try it. You basically need to try to discern if you've just gotten unlucky or if it's just something you're actually doing wrong. So I got to do some soul searching on that. LEC's, I mean, even going into this summer, I knew LEC was probably beyond saving like salvaging for the year. I was just going to try to trust my process and kind of like try to make some progress on the whole that I dug in LEC. I haven't been able to get shit right in that league for whatever reason this season. And I can't quite figure out why it's just been incredibly frustrating. Like it seems like I just can't get a result to save my life in the LEC. And I mean, clearly, clearly something's wrong here because I've done, I mean, I have what we have, I have like a hundred and I have a ton of bets in the LEC. I have 189 bets for the year in the LEC. So when I say like, I can't get a result to save my life there, it's clearly something more than that. Like I have a minus 15% ROI in the LEC this year. That's unacceptable and it's bad. And I've clearly got something wrong. I just need to figure out what it is. I know I understand a lot of that was specifically this weekend, but like I was, I was like down 20 units or whatever I was going into the summer. So I had a tough time, I've had a tough time with the LEC in general this year. I don't know if it's just the the weird, the weird three split format. I don't know, like historically, I've had a tough time at like the end of splits in the LEC, because the LEC, more than any other league, you know, kind of has like clowns show, you know, fuck Fiesta kind of games at the end of the split when the games don't matter. Like the it like they have this amplified week 17 18 NFL type of situation. And maybe with the three split format, getting three of those has played into that. But I have to actually look and see like when I've gone wrong and all that I have to I have to do an autopsy on the corpse that's been my LEC season. So yeah, I don't know, man, this it sucks. You know, when you get down swings it blows, there's there's not really any other way to put it, but you just got to keep keep grinding, shake it off, try to figure out what you're doing wrong, because I've been doing pretty well otherwise the LEC's just the LEC entirely on its own has ruined my season. Like I've done I've done really well everywhere else pretty much LEC or LCS, I'm kind of just blah. I think I'm like, basically, I'm a little red, maybe small zero small red, close to zero there. That could be green by the end of the season, but LEC, I just can't figure out. And it's wild because I've I've had like if you look like the models and, you know, qualitatively, like if I tiered these teams out, I've had a pretty good read on I've had a pretty good read on like who's good and who isn't. But just I don't know if I'm just making poor decisions, poor bets, or if it's yeah, I mean, I have to be at this point when you have that that big of a sample size, you're not running bad anymore. Like you're not running bad, you're doing something wrong. So I got to figure that out and figure out what's going on there. And, you know, this isn't new to just this weekend, but it kind of called attention to it again this weekend. So I don't know, on to the next one, I guess enough of me bitching. I'm not even going to bother recapping the LEC and the LPC and LPL from from this morning. Homewar 1 Invictus didn't really put up enough of a fight against AEL. They kind of had a shot in one of their games. KT got like I said, KT got absolutely smoked by Homewar. They look like they're kind of in trouble. What was the other match? I remember why I don't remember it. Genji just, you know, played with their food against Brianna. That's why. And then Top Esports LNG was actually pretty competitive. 2-1 win for Top Esports. It's funny. This series, like game one of this match, it was really funny. Like LNG looked like it was going to be one way traffic. They had like a 6k gold lead before the 20 minute mark in this game. Through it all the way back. Like Top Esports ended up having a lead in this game. This ended up being one of those like goofy 40+ minute clown fiesta games and LNG eventually got there. Second game was one way traffic for Top Esports. Third game was like close for a little bit and then one way traffic for Top Esports. So kind of a weird one. But there was that as well. Anyway, that's enough of this. I'm not even going to go into the LAC like for now. I've bished and moaned about it enough. I'm just going to end up just playing going into today's matches. Alright, Monday morning, week four, day one. Friendly reminder that you have to kind of keep in mind matches that matter and don't at this point. Again, they're trying to place into these conferences, the upper and lower conferences. There's no seating for this. So like once you're locked in, you're essentially playing for nothing but pride. So there's a lot of teams this week that have nothing to play for but pride. I'm not saying that it means they're going to no show or that they're going to be goofy clown fiesta kind of games. It's just an elevated chance of that happening when you're dealing with those situations. I'll try to point those out when we see them. Also, all LPL data is using just the summer data set moving forward. You know, we've got three weeks of sample. I'm not entirely sure how I feel about using just the summer sample with this new group format. I still have the full season. If I need to convert back and it doesn't look right to me, I'm going to do that. I'm going to take a deeper look at that tonight when I get home. But for the time being, I'm going to look at just the summer sample. So any numbers or model projections you can be spit out here are based on that alone. First up, we have Thunder Talk Gaming plus 186 in the money line plus one and a half is a minus 165. The minus one and a half is that plus 472 against Edward Gaming EDG minus 231 on the money line minus one and a half is a plus 135 plus one and has a minus 679. The only notable lineup change here is that it's not a change, but Feather is getting the start for TT again at support. Model made TT plus 139 plus two one and a half mass at minus 225 EDG minus 153. To me, there's two layers to this handicap. First, by the numbers, this is a pretty strange series because EDG have like world-class elite agnostic economy. Like their goal permit, agnostic goal permit at 1700, which is like what, you know, world championship contending teams have that, you know, that's one of the things that like I've talked about before. It's like a good source of truth for like if a team is legitimate or not. It's why I've been so, it's a good reason why I've been so bullish on EDG. Small, small adjustment to that. If you look at like when adjusted economy for them, it's a little bit worse. It's a little more normal looking. So I think it's possible that that EDG have just kind of like looked good economically in their wins even though they haven't really been stomping in their wins. Something that's interesting with EDG is that they haven't really like they've had no statistically significant gold leads this season and they've only had a lead at 20 minutes and 22% of the lead of any size, by the way, at 20 minutes and 22.2% of their gains, which is astounding given how much of a strong agnostic economy they've had this year. They're playing high parity, low margin league of legends right now and kind of flipping heads a lot. And that's kind of akin to what we saw from LNG last season. It's kind of akin to what how my life do in the LCK. A lot of their games are coin flips going into the mid and late game, and they've just been navigating that excellently, which is why I've been so bullish on this team. Now, caveat here, their last match against FPX, a lot of this handicap has to do with how much weight you want to put on that. Did FPX solve them? FPX definitely are more scrappy kind of back alley brawl style of team. They kind of bated EDG into a bunch of fights that they didn't have to take. EDG lost their discipline. They've been very disciplined, lost their cool and, you know, played FPX's game and FPX outplayed the minute. The thing with this series, too, is like, I would argue EDG probably should have won the second. I think it was the second game that had the crazy Milky Way quad and outplay situation on the VA go. I think it might have been the first game, actually, not thinking about it. But I'm not sure TT or the team that can engineer a similar strategy. That's not how they're built, either. But Thunder Talk have also been kind of like EDG, playing like a high parity, like can keep the game close. And then it's just a matter of if they convert like a mid or late game fight. Thunder Talk don't have the sexiest numbers, but their competitive team, they took a game off JDG in their last match, which is not easy to do. And, you know, it was a bizarre throw, but TT are good enough and competent enough to catch a punted game. And they're good enough to play these parity games and not be the first team to make a mistake. You know, they don't have the best underlying metrics, but kind of similar to how SK are playing in the LEC. I think they make good decisions in game. They're just not an elite team. So like, they are pretty firmly like a good but not great team to me. Maybe they're not really even a good team, but they're competent. This is like a hyper competent team. It's kind of a weird handicap here, but like, yeah, and then you have to kind of factor in like, like, what did that, that FPX series mean for EDG? Like, I'm really not sure if it was just a stylistic mismatch, and I missed that. Or if it was FPX kind of getting the rest is off the mat for a change after kind of struggling so far this summer. Or maybe it was just EDG kind of turning back into a pumpkin. I don't know. All of that said, I think this price is a little disrespectful to TT. They're going to have side choice for this series. The model, despite EDG's insane agnostic economy, the model still made this number short. EDG are kind of not putting themselves in advantageous positions a lot. They were just kind of grinding close games out. And when you have teams that grind close games out like that, they're not teams I want to back as big favorites, big favorites. I want teams that are blowing games open early and playing a lot of non games. And thunder talk have side choice. Thunder talk are very comfortable playing these high parity games as well. I think this series should be probably closer to a coin flip than it is. I actually think TT are probably closer to the model says that they are in this series and the model loves EDG. So keep that in mind. I really do think like with side choice, giving that bump to them, this should probably be at worst like a 5545 series. So I'm going to play some thunder talk. I'm going to play thunder talk plus one to have maps minus 165 for one unit. I'm going to actually upgrade the patreon post. I'm also I don't know why I didn't put this in there, but I'm going to I'm going to play a quarter unit on the thunder talk money line as well. Second match the thunder talk money line by the way is at plus 186 for a quarter unit. Second game is JDG against a JDG minus 628 on the money line minus one and half massive minus 145 against fun plus Phoenix plus 443 on the money line plus one and half plus 120 minus one and half plus 1036. No lineup changes. Actually, no, there is flanger is back in for JDG model made JDG minus 283 FPX 251 obviously makes this closer than the market does. You have to give some kind of bump to JDG for having side choice. Another bump to JDG for just being an elite team. They get a qualitative bump. FPX have not looked particularly great this season. I didn't even think they looked great in their last match against EDG necessarily. I just thought that EDG was really really dumb on the day and was playing FPX's game, which I thought was stupid. That said JDG have already clinched an upper bracket spot. This match means absolutely nothing to them other than pride and practice. Not saying they're going to mail it in just that there's an elevated chance of that happening here. FPX still need a win to lock in upper bracket. Actually, I think they need two wins if I remember right. Even with all that taken into mind, I think this is probably a bit too heavy-handed in a match that's essentially meaningless for JDG. JDG should be favored, but even if it wasn't a meaningless match, I would think this is pretty heavy-handed for them. They should probably be closer to where the model priced this at minus 300 or so. If you look back to the summer split when these two teams played, it was much closer than this. I'm going to play some fun plus Phoenix here. FPX plus one and a half mass plus 120 for one unit and the FPX money line at plus 443 for point one units. It's a little tougher to get the money line home on off-side like this, but if they get a stunner in map one, they could do a 2-0 here. There's a case to be made for instead of money line, just shoot for the moon and take the minus one and a half maps because if they win map one and they get their side choice map in map two, there's a longer tail to that happening than there is the A21 win for FPX, but I'm going to sprinkle money line, but I played the plus one and a half maps. You could also just play specifically map two kill spread or map two money line if you want, take your pick. That's going to be it for me. I will see you all tomorrow.
