The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my Patrons at patreon.com/jalatiLOL. There you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You'll also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jalatiLOL, that's G-E-L-A-T-I-LOL. Good evening everybody, it's currently about 10 minutes after 5 o'clock on Saturday, June 22nd. I'm trying to dig myself out of the grave I got the whole I got put in today. Geez, I got pine box really really hard today. We'll see, maybe the LCS can salvage some of it back, but this is going to be a bad day. I'm not going to review the LEC now, I'll talk about that on the LCS and LEC show, just a bloodbath. There, this show is going to be for Saturday and L-C-K in the L-P-L. We ended up down 0.437 units for the day, just absolute no show from D-R-X is what really cost us this, D-R-X is now the third time this week that I've been completely juked out of my ankles by a team that's looked like they've completely refound themselves and reinvented themselves and looked like a completely different team, is the third time this week that I've been completely hard juked by those teams. I only had bets on two of them, I did not bet anyone's legend, but E-D-G and D-R-X completely got me this week and it's brutal, it's been a rough hang. This has been a really bad week, like a really really bad week, like right now as I stand right now, this is like, I mean we're going to be probably going to be down double digits on the week, pretty brutal, yeah it's not fun, I don't really know, it's really really not fun, but I don't know, sometimes it's like this, this has been a very difficult year, I'm still above water, we're still green on the year, but it's been really really difficult and yeah I don't know, I'm a little down today if you couldn't tell, so all right, so D-R-X, D-R-X cost us big time, I didn't have any position in B-L-G, R-N-G, I thought B-L-G would ruffle stomp and they did, what was the other one, L-G-D got home for us, that was a win, L-G-D, honestly pretty decisive win in the second game, the first game was kind of back and forth, could have gone either way, so you know it wasn't like a full on god awful experience, but like W, I mean W, we had like a small lead in the first game, but didn't really do anything with it, and this was still basically a 50/50 game, into the late game, and L-G-D played the fights better, made a couple of really smart picks around objectives, specifically like the fourth dragon fight, they made a pick and flipped that door baron, ended up winning the game off that, second game was another one, like just, this series went more or less exactly how I thought it would go in my head, which was these two teams just play at parity through you know the first 25 minutes of the game, it's basically a coin flip, and then someone's gonna win a fight and win the game, and that's, you know I was okay going to war with L-G-D in that aspect, because you know we're getting decent price on them, and it turns out yeah that's what happened, we just flipped heads twice in a row, which was nice, so we got the two of them as well, it's about the only thing that's going well for me today, but yeah, oh it was the other, the other LCK series, I didn't touch something LCK series, I'm off my rocker today, not even, just like not even tilt it, it's just like what the hell man, oh the first, oh D plus first fear X, fear X, fear X was like probably 90% of win this first game, they were up like almost 5,000 gold pretty early on, and just completely bungled it with a really odd, barren decision, I don't know if they, they should have won that game, the second game was an absolute shell-lacking, and D plus just reset like six times, ended up getting 31 kills in the game and just absolutely nuking the DFS slate, which was kind of cool, yeah I played, I played the Jeff King's main event yesterday, the main slate yesterday which was kind of fun, I haven't, I've been playing a ton of DFS, but I guess doing that show the other day kind of had me inspired it ended up not happening, but there was a, a period of time where it looked like somebody was gonna have a, a 4-3 unique with just a D plus nogshim stack with a, that was gonna be unique with a straight up 4-3, like nothing weird about it, and I was getting a little critical of the, of the field essentially for like not having that duped somehow, but anyway, I digress. Alright, let's move on to Sunday, LPL Sunday, week 3, day 7, anyone's legend minus 695 on the money line, minus 1/2, minus 1/2, minus 1/2, minus 1/2, minus 1/2, minus 1/2, minus 1/2, minus 1/2, minus 1/2, minus 1/2, minus 1/2, plus 1,1077, so no line of changes here, it's gonna be Ali Crock, Ali Crocko, Shanks, Hope and Kyle for anyone's legend, Invictus are running out Zwian, GLFS, Nany, On and Vampire. Model Made, this minus 2/48, plus 2/27. You know, I mentioned earlier the, the three teams that juked me this week, anyone's legend or one of those teams that juked me this week, I don't know if maybe they're just, you know, consistently inconsistent, kind of like Weibo, but you know, that complete no-show against the, kind of a dog shit Weibo team, and then this series that they played against Ultra Prime was one of the lowest level series of League of Legends that we've seen in 2024. That was an embarrassment, like a, a series where like neither team really won, it was, the games were hilarious and entertaining, but it was not a good series. Just not good League of Legends and, you know, anyone's legend have gone from like a team that I thought was relatively promising and interesting to a team that I have no idea what to expect from anymore. Like in the span of, in a span of like eight days, which is normally you don't want to overreact to what you're seeing, but in a span of eight days, I know well, I just no longer have Eddie Faith in this teams, like they're probably still better than everybody, like not every, they're probably still better than most of the like the garbage tier teams, which includes Invictus, but like, you know, this is, this is an 87 and a half percent implied win rate, almost. Is this team really 87% to win any series against anybody? Because like with the absolute travesty of what you call their macro game, I don't trust this, I don't trust this team to be 87% against anybody. This is a whole, you know, special Invictus gaming plus one and a half maps of plus one 30 for one unit Invictus series Moneyline at plus 482 for point units, 0.2 units. Invictus might be the worst team in the league, they're pretty bad, but there's no way in hell anyone's legend should be laying this bigger price to anyone anymore. So I'll take my chances, I'm not expecting it to win, but if Invictus can get a map for us, I'll be happy. Top esports minus 341 on the Moneyline, the minus one to have maps of plus 103 against LNG, esports plus 264 on the Moneyline, the plus one to have maps at minus 124, the underdog sweep is at plus 663. Top esports, a perfect four and I was favorites, four and I against the map spread this season, immaculate. Model made this top minus 265 LNG plus 242. Feels about right to me, model prices isn't too far off in the market, LNG usually, LNG are kind of like a diet version, maybe a less extreme version of the counter punching concept of that Hama life is. They're not exactly the same, it's not exactly one to one, but they kind of are built, they kind of play that way. And they've typically had a lot of trouble against the elite three teams, they've gotten games here and they're off of them this season, but they're typically, because they're not doing a lot of their own engineering and creating of their own advantages, as long as these elite teams aren't bad on the day and don't make a ton of mistakes, they're usually going to just get too owed. Now LNG, unlike a lot of teams in the LPL, LNG are actually like capable of if these elite teams make some decent mistakes, LNG will punish and will win the game against them. So, you know, I don't really want to overpay for top esports here. I'd be leaning toward the top esports like Moneyline or even the minus one and a half maps in this if you forced me to pick something, but I don't feel, I don't really feel strongly enough about it to overpay for it. And then I think, I mean, the other option here is you could play this map map by map. Jesus, I'm like stumbling over my words today. You could play this map by map, meaning like you take the team that's got side choice, like top esports kill spread minus or minus whatever it is on map one, and then LNG have side choice for map two, so they'll have, so you can take LNG kill spread on map two or something like that. I ultimately didn't play anything in this one. I think that this market's pretty much right. Same starters for both teams, by the way. Nothing weird in this one. Moving on to the LCK week two, day five, Gen G are minus 6,000 on the Moneyline again, and the minus one and a half maps at minus 700 against, you guessed it, okay, Breon Savings Bank at plus 2300 on the Moneyline, plus one and a half maps at plus 484, and the minus one and a half is at almost 50 to one. Breon do have a bit of a reputation over the last couple years of being giant slayers once in a while, being upset kings. I mean 484, you're getting what like 20% implied odds for them to take a map. Don't play Gen G here, but I don't know. I'm not going to fault anyone for taking a shot on the 23 to one or five to one to take a map or something like that. I'm never going to take issue with that, but for what it's worth, the model made Gen G a bigger favor than this, which is insane. Yeah, I don't know. The difference between this iteration of Breon and previous iterations of Breon is that they don't have the go get shit done piece. They used to have umpti, and umpti is a good enough player that he can take over games by himself, and if, you know, so like there was always some kind of chance that he would just like pop off early, get the snowball rolling and call a good game and close it out, but Breon don't have that anymore. Breon have a god awful closing rate when they do have a lead. They don't get a lead very often. They almost never get a significant lead, and unfortunately for them, Gen G are probably the most resilient and difficult to close a game out against team in the world right now. They're just so fundamentally sound that like even when you get advantages on them, it's rarely a big advantage. So I'm pretty sure Gen G could like sleepwalk their way through this series. I wouldn't mess with their prices or anything like maybe maybe you take Breon kill spreads if you think they they get out to a decent start, but I want nothing to do with this match. They're Gen G's probably going to be chalkish shit in DFS. This is actually a big enough money line price that I think you are almost better off betting it than playing a DFS slate with it, but that's just me personally. Next up final match of the day, probably the most interesting matchup of the day in both leagues is KT Rollster plus 200 on the money line plus one ahead maps at minus 158 D minus one ahead plus five 14. Ensemble Life Esports minus 250 on the money line the minus one ahead maps at plus 130 and the plus one and a half is at minus 753. First things first, what's our rule with KT Rollster? Back them as big dogs fade them as big favorites. The question is are they a big enough dog here to get involved model actually made this a cheap price for Homolife Esports makes KTA plus 262 to Homolife minus 300 roughly. I normally like backing KT as big underdogs and I think, you know, tails of their demise are a little bit early. They've had a really really difficult schedule to start the season. They have not had an easy match yet, but Homolife is not really a downgrade in competition either. KT Rollster struggled closing against the thing with KT is like they've had a couple situations this season where they've been up in games and struggled to close. They've only gotten one game where they had a lead home for a win and if their only win of the season was against D plus the fact that they were struggling to close against Kwongdong and Homolife are probably a more difficult team to close a game out against unless you can play immaculately makes me a little concerned. Like I don't think they're like they're not to be trusted even if they do get a lead. So like if the way KT Rollster is playing right now they're not they're not getting the spike performances right now. They've and if they were closing more reliably and if I didn't see those couple games where they just looked super shaky I'd be maybe a little more willing to go to war with them and I know it's early in the season they've had difficult starting schedule and I don't want to entirely hold that against them too much but I do think the form that we're seeing from KT Rollster right now is a little bit worse than what we were seeing in spring. I think part of it has to do with the difficult schedule but I think they just haven't looked as much themselves as they usually do. I you know it wouldn't shock me to see them turn it around at any point but I think this is one of those rare cases where I'm actually going to go against KT Rollster with the favorite makes me kind of sick to my stomach if I'm being honest with you but like if KT can't close games out Homol just punished that kind of play so hard like stylistically like Homol eat teams like that for breakfast like if you if you bungle anything in your transition or in the late game Homol eat that for lunch like every time so I'm actually going to take Homol life on the money line here minus 250 for one unit it doesn't feel great it's kind of sickening if I'm being honest with you but like this maybe I'm maybe I'm again maybe you know shorting in the hole so to speak that's a you know if trading terminology here I may be shorting KT in the hole here like trying to you know add on a to a position that's already you know taking a hit on them like they've already they've already gotten beat up quite a bit here I could be you know this could be the bottom and I'm shorting the bottom which isn't good but you know Homol haven't looked all that great either but at the same time like it's just like if you can't close games out Homol will win the game like you just can't you you have to play mistake free league of legends against Homol and KT just make too many mistakes so yeah I'm gonna I'm gonna go to war with Homol here this is weird but is what it is that's going to be it for me today I will recap the absolute bloodbath that happened in the LAC today on the late show on the next show and we'll talk about the LAC and LCS for sunday on tonight's show as well that will probably maybe probably like in the wee hours of the morning right before the LAC or LCK starts tomorrow morning so you know between midnight and 2 depending on when I get home so that's going to be it for me I will be back later on I hope everyone has a good night and
