Monday 21st November 2022

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Friday was unusually quiet, with no big data releases and not much movement in markets. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland observes, the most significant move was the reversal in short-end yields, taking the 2-10 yield spread to minus 70bps, the highest negative spread in over forty years. Normally this would be a clear signal of an impending recession, he says, but we’ve been seeing these signs for most of the year and yet the economy remains surprisingly resilient. The last week has also seen significant falls in oil prices – we look at why. And look ahead to the RBNZ this week. But it’s likely to be a quiet week, with the US celebrating Thanksgiving on Thursday. 

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20 Nov 2022