Sam Altman’s Observations and Predictions

1. AI intelligence scales predictably with resources. The intelligence of an AI model roughly scales with the logarithm of the resources invested in training and running it, primarily compute power, data, and inference capabilities. This means that continuous and predictable gains in AI intelligence can be achieved by investing more resources.
2. The cost of using AI is rapidly decreasing. The cost to use a given level of AI falls approximately 10 times every 12 months. For example, the per-token cost of GPT-4 dropped about 150 times from early 2023 to mid-2024. This dramatic cost reduction is driving significantly higher adoption of AI technologies.
3. The socioeconomic value of AI grows super-exponentially. As AI intelligence increases linearly, its economic value grows at a super-exponential rate. This exponential growth in value is fueling continuous investment in AI development, with no signs of slowing down.

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