Brett Appley provides his quick preview and makes his UFC 304 DraftKings Picks including his favorite Cash Game, Tournament and Salary picks of the week. Brett also provides his signature “Matchup for the Week” for all your DraftKings plays this weekend.
Show Index:
00:00 - Intro
00:35 - DraftKings Cash Play Of The Week
03:02 - DraftKings Tournament Play Of The Week
05:17 - DraftKings Salary Play Of The Week
08:09 - Draftkings Matchup of the Week
010:45 - Outro
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(upbeat music) - What's up everyone? Welcome to another UFC quick picks here on the Mayo Media Network. We have UFC 304 this weekend. Leon Edwards vs. Balam Ahmed in the main event. Fourteen fights on this massive slate in London. Should be a really good card. It's a really fun dynamic from a Draft Kings perspective as well. I'm here to give you my favorite cash gameplay. Tournament play, salary play, and a matchup I like on the slate as well. And let's get right down to business. My cash gameplay of the week, I'm going to roll with Balam Ahmed at 7.4K. And listen, there's, again, there's gonna be 14 winners on this slate. There are a lot of fighters to choose from. Some of the priced up fighters make for good cash game plays, obviously, Aspenol, McCann, Wood, et cetera. We got some mid-range options. I think Balal is a cheap fighter who can really unlock whatever you want to do, though, and I'm not even necessarily saying Balal's going to win or it's gonna be ultra competitive, although I do think the fight should play out competitively. Balal's a plus two 10 underdog, and he was losing the early minutes of this fight against Edward the first time they fought. But the bottom line here is, the fight is minus 200 over four and a half rounds, minus 170 to go the distance. You're likely getting 25 minutes of action from Balal Muhammad. And while Edward's will do his best to make the fight boring, to slow the pace down, Balal's gonna go out there and try. Balal's gonna go out there and throw strikes at a moderate pace. He's gonna attempt a bunch of takedowns. He averages more than four and a half significant strikes later per minute. Average is nearly two takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Edwards is a good neutralizer. But I mean, Edwards has given up five, four, two takedowns at his last few fights. He's given up 80 plus significant strikes multiple times at his last few fights. And again, if the odds were projected for Edwards to win this fight inside of one and a half rounds at a high rate, I wouldn't be as excited by Balal and cash games, just like I have concerns about Curtis blades in cash games, for example, a cheap fighter in the main event who might get finished quickly. Odds are suggesting this fight lasts a while, and most likely 25 minutes and 25 minutes of Balal Muhammad at 7.4K is certainly viable in cash games. A lot of the fighters price below Balal, although some have viability for just being cheap salary punts. We're getting a lot of weak talents. We're getting a lot of low floors, probably early finishes and Balal again, 7.4K produces offense at a pretty strong rate per minute, very cheap and unlocks whatever else you want in cash games. So I will be paying down for Balal to start my lineups this week. Next up, my tournament play of the week. Let's go with Preston Parsons at 8.6K. He might be popular. I haven't done ownership projections yet, but he could very well be popular at 8.6K largely because I think other people are seeing what I see in terms of the fight analysis in that Parsons is a pretty competent fighter. I mean, he's not a great wrestler or grappler or striker, but he's decent everywhere, primarily as a wrestler. He can fight at a decent pace. He's gone the 15 minute distance several times in the UFC. He's beaten decent fighters like Evan Elder, like Matthew Samblisberger, and he's averaging 4.3 takedowns per 15 minutes. Oban Elliott looked very questionable coming off the contender series, and then he got a layup matchup against Val Woodburn, and Woodburn still managed to drop him early in the fight. Take him down a couple of times. Elliott came back to win that fight, so fair play to him. He's tough, and Woodburn has a lot of issues himself, but feels reasonable that Parsons can win this fight, feels reasonable that Parsons can win this fight while landing takedowns, and potentially win the fight inside the distance. Parsons is plus, excuse me, let me pull up the correct odds here. Parsons is minus 144 to win, and minus plus 180 to win inside the distance. So it's a fine line. It's not incredibly likely that he wins inside the distance, but he's priced at 8.6K. This is not a 9.4K price tag. This is not a 9.1K price tag. 8.6K is pretty mid-range this week, and he just has, I think he has multiple paths to a big score. He's already won two decisions in the UFC that scored 108 and 114 that does suggest upside. I think he has a strong floor to win. Finishing upside in this particular matchup, a cardio advantage in this particular matchup, and probably wrestling advantage as well. If you wanna play Elliot for upside, or as like a hedge leverage target, I can understand that, but I really like Parsons chances to win. I really like Parsons chances to produce some offense, to land some takedowns, and if he can secure a finish, which I'm hopeful for as well, Parsons can definitely compete with the optimal lineup. So he'll be my tournament play of the week there at 8.6K. All right, let's move on to my salary play of the week, and I'll just take a complete shot in the dark here with Kiefer Crosby taking on Sam Patterson, Crosby's 6.9K. He's a big dog. He is plus 3.45 to win, so this is essentially just a punt. The underdogs on this slate are tough in that, everyone priced below ball all at 7.4K, and just not great talents, questionable upside, or like big dogs, and Crosby definitely is a questionable talent. I don't think Crosby is very good. I don't think Crosby has a lot of cardio, and he's gonna be considerably shorter. He'll have less length than Patterson. Patterson's a very long fighter, so my expectation is that Patterson actually wins this fight inside the distance, that's what I picked, that's what I think makes a lot of sense. But, I mean, I've bet against Patterson before, because he doesn't defend strikes well in the pocket, he doesn't really defend takedowns well, he looks like a pretty defensive liability to me, and I noted that prior to him entering the UFC, I bet against him in his UFC debut against a much smaller opponent, and that guy Ashmoo's knocked him out very, very quickly, and the one thing Crosby will do is come forward and try and brawl, and yeah, he might get caught at distance, he might get tired, he's probably gonna get choked out eventually, but I do think in the early minutes, Crosby will at least have some hope for damage upside. This fight is minus 600 to end inside the distance, and that's not just because Crosby sucks, that's 'cause Patterson's a liability as well. Crosby actually has a plus 325 inside the distance line, that's not terrible considering his money line is also plus 325, the fight's minus 195 under one and a half round, so again, this is a punt, but this is a punt where there's at least a ceiling in Crosby, he's not gonna be highly owned, he's coming off a first round loss to Kevin Giuseppe, and there's probably gonna be significant leverage against Sam Patterson, who people might like based on Patterson's metrics, so you're getting a cheap fighter, Kiefer Crosby, who has early knockout upside, against an opponent who's been hurt many times, who's already been knocked out early in the UFC, I'm not gonna play it heavily, but these are the types of fighters I'm taking chances on, on this particular slate, there's gonna be 14 winners, you need to be shooting for elite ceilings, and if Crosby wins, it's very likely to be an early knockout, I think that's a possibility, I like the ownership, et cetera as well, so I will be punting on hopefully more than the field with Crosby there at 6.9K. And finally, my matchup of the week, let's go back to the mid-range here, Bobby King-Green taking on Patty Pimble, I really like the pacing of this fight, Green's a sly favor, minus 115, Pimble plus 100 at Green's, 8.2K, Pimble at 8K. I think Pimble is the better draft Kings fighter in general, he is just very aggressive, he throws bombs on the feet and he can grapple, and his wins, 119, 98, 88, 63, 112, a little bit of a mix there, but you've at least seen multiple 110 plus scores, priced at 8K, it's not that he needs 110 points. If Patty Pimble goes out there and beats Bobby Green, there's a decent chance it comes by knockout, or via grappling, Pimble plus 165 to win inside the distance, I think he's a really strong target, I am picking Green to win though, because Green is just a better fighter, Green is a better technical striker, he's better defensively by a pretty significant margin, he throws more volume than Pimble, historically by a pretty significant margin, and he's a decent wrestler, Pimble has really had that much success wrestling in the UFC, so while I like Pimble's style to score well in draft Kings, I'm picking Green to win, Green is weird in that he never rates out well from a draft Kings perspective, he doesn't wrestle a lot, he's boomer bust, and then he needs a knockout to be optimal, and people never play him, but he always finds a way to score well, I mean, these are his last wins, 121, 128, 108, 105, and 112. And it's hard to ignore at this point, and partially 'cause yeah, he can win by knockout, but he's also landed 180 plus significant strikes multiple times recently, maybe he doesn't get there in this fight, maybe there's bust risk because of it, plus 470 to win inside the distance, Green doesn't really rate out well, but I'm hoping that because he doesn't rate out well, he's not gonna be super talky, and realistically, if Green is the better striker and Pimble's just marching forward on him with his chin hung out in the air, I really do think Green could win this fight by knockout, or he could just land a considerable amount of significant strikes as well, I think there's upside based on the pacing, based on just the match up, but based on the lack of defense from Pimble, really on the green side, so I think it's a really fun fight, one of my favorites to watch, and should be a really fun and important one from a DraftKings perspective as well. All right, guys, that's gonna do it for this week's UFC. Quick picks, thank you so much for the support. You can follow me on Twitter @birdappledop, establishtherun.com for all your DraftKings. Needs just posted a two hour premium show with my boy, Gordo, Gamble's all 14 fight breakdowns are live on the site as well. Projections ranking, it's all that good stuff. Big money to be won tomorrow. Definitely get the resource if you needed there, establishtherun.com. Thank you for all the support, best of luck this week, and we will talk to y'all soon. Peace. (upbeat music) - 5280 exteriors James Hardy sighting is a low maintenance sighting made primarily of cement that resist flame spread and repels woodborne insects and woodpeckers. Through the month of July, you'll receive free rigid foam installation with the purchase of whole house sighting. That's installing additional insulation behind your sighting for free, but only for the month of July. 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