Brett Appley provides his quick preview and makes his UFC Denver DraftKings Picks including his favorite Cash Game, Tournament and Salary picks of the week. Brett also provides his signature “Matchup for the Week” for all your DraftKings plays this weekend.
Show Index:
00:00 - Intro
00:35 - DraftKings Cash Play Of The Week
02:15 - DraftKings Tournament Play Of The Week
04:32 - DraftKings Salary Play Of The Week
06:20 - Draftkings Matchup of the Week
08:13 - Outro
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(upbeat music) What's up guys? Welcome to another UFC quick picks here on the Mayo Media Network. We have UFC Fight Night Denver this weekend on Munis vs Cortez in the main event, 12 fights on the slate. Before I get into my picks, please make sure to subscribe to the channel, like the video, and watch a comment below. Give me your favorite underdog on the slate. Always curious to hear what y'all have to say. There, as usual I'm going to give you my favorite cash gameplay, tournament play, salary play, and a matchup I like from a Draft Kings perspective. So let's get right into it with my cash gameplay of the week. It's going to be Tracy Cortez at 7.2K. I do think there are a lot of viable cash game options even below the mid range this week, but a lot of them are somewhat pricey. I think Cortez really unlocks cash games this week at 7.2K or paying down pretty far for a fighter who, she's plus 192 to win the main event. I pick Naomi Unis to win. I think most people are going to pick Naomi Unis to win, but the fight is minus 280 over four and a half rounds, minus 260 to go the distance, and Cortez can produce volume, especially as a wrestler. Cortez is a base wrestler. She averages 2.3 takedowns per 15 minutes, four, two, three, three, two takedowns in her first five fights, and she projects to land two to five takedowns in this fight over 25 minutes. I don't think she's going to be very effective with it, but mixing a few takedowns as 15 points, plus 25 minutes of striking action, and you get a fighter who could potentially score 60 points in a loss. If not, maybe she gets 40 points in a loss. Listen, the odds are that this fight extends a lot of the time, extends the full duration a lot of the time, and Cortez produces enough volume to put her squarely in play at 7.2K. She's got probably the best floor on the slate, especially for an underdog. She's very, very cheap in a matchup where she gets 25 minutes to work. So I think Cortez is a great start to your cash game options. Opens up pretty much any other. Opens gives you the ability to pay up for essentially whoever else you want. Next up for tournaments. I am going to be a bit unique here, which is tough on this slate, but I'm going to roll with Santiago Ponce to be able at 8.8K. One of the main reasons why I like him in this spot is 'cause I think he's going to be a bit contrarian. I see Joshua Van getting a lot of attention priced right below him. I see the big floor up top, elder, ball and femme, Santos, and non-meunis all getting attention. And I just don't know if Ponce and Nibio's gun going to be exciting to many people. He hasn't scored 100 points since 2017. He's only one, one of his last four fights. And I essentially think he's just going to get overlooked at 8.8K. Fine, so be it. He's not a young fighter anymore, shown some questionable durability. And it's fair to potentially not even be confident that Ponce and Nibio wins the fight. But he's a very experienced kickboxer. He's fighting another aging striker in Muslim Salikov who is older than him and who has worse durability than him. And Salikov has been knocked out in two of his last three losses, coming off a first round knockout to Randy Brown. Salikov is a fun fighter and he throws flashy technique, but he only lands 3.2 significant strikes per minute. Ponce and Nibio lands 4.9. Ponce and Nibio's just a much higher volume striker. And that's sort of the reason why I'm picking Ponce and Nibio to win, but also if Ponce and Nibio's landing a lot of strikes, I think there's a reasonable chance that he hurt Salikov at some point and wins his fight inside the distance. He is plus 150, I believe. Let me double check that. Plus 145 to win inside the distance. So it's not a bad line for 8.8K, granted he's boomer bust and extended fight is not going to score super well. Doesn't really have wrestling equity. So you don't need to jam Ponce and Nibio in, but he should be around 20% owned or perhaps less. And I think he has early knockout upside given the opponent and given his high volume style, and I don't mind him as a contrarian pivot upside option in tournaments at 8.8K. Next up, we have a salary play. I am going to give you Andre Petroski at 7.9K, already went super cheap with trades Cortez. And unlike Cortez, Petroski is not a floor play in any regard. He is known for having cardio issues and he quits and fights and he's coming off back-to-back knockout losses. So it's not a lot of reasons to be particularly confident in Andre Petroski and if the fight extends past the first seven minutes, he's probably going to bust. He's probably not going to score a lot. He's probably going to lose. However, I do think this is a clear step down in competition for Petroski against Josh Friend. Or Petroski just lost to two very, very good opponents in Michelle Pereira and Jacob Malkoon while Josh Friend is getting dominated by Trisha and Gore on the ground, getting dominated by Anthony Hernandez on the ground. That's not a bad loss to have, but Friend isn't really good at anything. I mean, Friend competed at the D3 level in college as a wrestler. Petroski was a D1 wrestler. Petroski's a better submission grappler. Friend arguably is a better striker here, but doesn't even lay in three strikes per minute. I think Petroski has early grappling upside in this fight. Friend has been taken down by a bunch of opponents. Friend's been submitted by opponents worse than Andre Petroski. And so it's just an upside case here. Petroski's plus 225 to an inside the distance definitely has bust risk, definitely has cardio risk, but should be the better wrestler here, should be the better grappler. And I think could translate that into takedowns, control, potentially a submission. And at 7.9 K, I'm willing to take chances on him personally in tournaments. Really good upside boomer bust grappler type there at 7.9 K. And finally, the matchup of the week I'm rolling with Abdulral, Razak al-Hassan versus Cody Brundage. Definitely my favorite fight on the night, not gatekeeping anything here. This fight is like minus 450 to edit inside the distance. All assan's minus 170 Brundage plus 145 on Draft Kings, Al-Hassan 8.5 K, Brundage 7.7 K. And it's just, the dynamic of the matchup is two fighters who don't have great cardio. Al-Hassan's gonna go out there and shoot for the kill in the first round. He's a big first round knockout artist. That's essentially how all of his wins have come. Except for his most recent win, which came a few seconds into round two. But otherwise, he's only won by first round knockout throughout his entire career. Cody Brundage has given up on more than one occasion. I definitely think Al-Hassan has early KO upside. Can hurt Brundage, can finish him off, can put up an optimal score. But conversely, Brundage is either gonna have to exchange with Al-Hassan or try and wrestle him. And if he boxes with Al-Hassan, maybe there's some knockout upside there. More than likely he's gonna wrestle, take Al-Hassan down, jump on a guillotine choke. And if Brundage wins, it's probably an early finish, like within the first seven minutes as well. Brundage is plus 225 to win inside the distance. Al-Hassan's minus 140. I don't see this fight being very competitive. And at mid-range prices, I think the winner has a pretty strong chance of reaching the ceiling, could tell you for the optimal lineup. I do prefer Al-Hassan. I also think the field will prefer Al-Hassan. So take that for what it's worth. Brundage potentially the leverage side and potentially leverage within that 7.6 to 8K price range. But it should be a really good fight for as long as it lasts yet. Minus 450 to end inside the distance, binary dynamic. Gotta be pretty heavy on this matchup as a whole. All right guys, that's it for this UFC quick picks. Thank you so much for the support. You can follow me on Twitter, but aptly, double T, double P, establishtherun.com for all your draft Kings MMA needs. Best of luck this week, take care and we'll talk to you all soon. Peace. (upbeat music) 5280 exteriors James Hardy sighting is a low maintenance sighting made primarily of cement that resist flame spread and repels woodborne insects and woodpeckers. Through the month of July, you'll receive free rigid foam installation with the purchase of whole house sighting. That's installing additional insulation behind your sighting for free, but only for the month of July. Call today for more details or visit 5280 exteriors.com, 5280 exteriors.com, a James Hardy preferred contractor, 5280 exteriors, the altitude of quality.
