Brett Appley provides his quick preview and makes his UFC 303 DraftKings Picks including his favorite Cash Game, Tournament and Salary picks of the week. Brett also provides his signature “Matchup for the Week” for all your DraftKings plays this weekend.
Show Index:
00:00 - Intro
01:23 - DraftKings Cash Play Of The Week
02:55 - DraftKings Tournament Play Of The Week
05:35 - DraftKings Salary Play Of The Week
07:49 - Draftkings Matchup of the Week
09:53 - Outro
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(upbeat music) - What's up everybody? Welcome to another UFC quick pinks here on the Mayo Media Network. We have UFC 303 this weekend. Alex Pereira versus Yuri Pratraska. Number two should be a really fun card. A lot of prizes are up for grabs on Draft Kings 13 fights on the slate as of now. I am here to give you my favorite cash gameplay, tournament play, salary play and a matchup I like as well. Before I do, please subscribe to the channel, like the video. Why don't you comment below and give me a fighter price between 8.7 and 7.5K. So I'm going like super mid range here. Give me a fighter that stands out to you there and let's exclude the main event. I think Pereira and Pratraska will get a lot of ownership. Other than that, certainly there's a lot of viable options, some of which we will talk about. Always curious to hear your opinions and also, establishserun.com. Please make sure you check out our premium content as well. Not only do we do full written breakdowns of every fight on the slate. Just went two hours with my boy, Gordo Gamble's podcast wise breaking down every single fight on the card, rankings, projections, all that good stuff, working really, really hard this week. To give you guys the content you need to help you win on Draft Kings. Without further ado, let's get into my cash gameplay of the week which is going to be Macy Chishone at 7.4K. Yes, very rarely do we use a cheap fighter for our cash gameplay of the week but I will make an exception for Macy Chishone at 7.4K. Who is 50/50 to win her fight? She's minus 107, minus 107 to beat Myra Bueno Silva and that's about all you need to know. Macy Chishone's priced in a range with Mark Andre Barrio and Vinicius Oliveira and Cub Swanson who were plus 200 or worse. And it's just she has clear win equity compared to fighters surrounding her in price tag. Not only that, but she's a grappler. So when she wins, she scores very, very well. 111, 106, 108, 111, 111, 102. She's actually crushed and we were on her in her last fight against Pandy Kianzod. It's a contrarian option as well. She'll be much more popular this week given that price tag. But in a fight that's expected to extend, let me pull up the exact odds here. The fight is minus 175 over two and a half rounds. As a 50/50 pick them there, I think Chishone's a great value 7.4K grappling equity against an opponent in Bueno Silva who doesn't defend strikes well, doesn't defend takedowns well. Chishone can definitely put up points even in a loss, even in an extended fight. So I think she's a very easy cash game target to start your constructions. Next up, my tournament play of the week. Let's go off the board for who I usually target and we'll go with Roman de Lise at 8.4K. Coming off back-to-back losses and priced in a range with Diego Lopez and Alex Pereira and Ian Gary and Michael Page. I do hope that de Lise is a bit overlooked here. He's been a very, very popular target for most of his UFC career, though not really by me because I just don't love the process in his game. However, he's fighting an opponent, Anthony Smith, who I also don't love the process in his game. And we were actually on Anthony Smith as a pun underdog in his last fight against Meetor Petrino where he pulled off an early guillotine, but that's because he was priced north of plus 200 and 6.8K and then he has some finishing equity. So it's like, if you're gonna give me Anthony Smith below 7K against an opponent who has some defensive issues, sure, I'm willing to punt within. Now he's priced near pickup. I mean, de Lise is a slight fee, right? Minus 140, de Lise plus 122. I just think this is a step up in competition for Smith. Well, it's a step down in competition for de Lise. Regardless of whether I think that or not, it's de Lise still has issues in his game. He doesn't throw a lot of strikes. He slows down, not the greatest wrestler in the world. So if Smith happens to beat him, so be it. The reason I like de Lise in tournaments is partially because he'll be overlooked and partially because Anthony Smith is just lacking defense. I mean, he's getting up there in age. He's a long career history of getting beaten up, coming from behind and winning, which is very impressive, but you're still kind of getting beat up in the process. And if you exclude his recent win, I mean, part of that, he was knocked out in the third round by Cleo Roundtree. Prior to that, he was easily outstruck by Johnny Walker. Prior to that, he was knocked out by Magaman and Goliath. He's been knocked out by Glover Tashira. He is breakable to a degree. De Lise is a risk, but he's priced at 8.3 K. So he doesn't need 115 points to be optimal. If he can put up 90, he's all of a sudden contending. Given his style, he can land ground and pound. He has some submission equity. And I think I am willing to use him as a pivot, especially against Alex Pereira and Diego Lopez, who should be more popular in this range. Not the biggest fan of De Lise as a talent, but I do like the fantasy upside for him. In this matchup, plus 160 to win inside the distance, I will hunt for a ceiling there. Next up, my salary play of the week. I will go with Brian Ortega at 7.8 K. He's the underdog against Diego Lopez. I always pick against Diego Lopez, and I always get it wrong. So let's set up the fight with that. Lopez is once again a favorite here, minus 144 or Tego plus 125. They profile very similarly. Both are very strong submission grapplers. Both have questionable wrestling. Both are just bombs away on the feet. Don't really have much defense, but they're okay with not having defense because getting taken down doesn't really hurt them. Or Tego obviously is a much longer career, a much better competition. Well, Diego Lopez is storming into the UFC. He has three consecutive first round wins. Just run through opponents. And it's very impressive. And I wouldn't be totally surprised if he ran through Brian Ortega. Brian Ortega's getting up there in his career. I don't know that he's old, but he's fought for a very long time. His last win against the Yair Rodriguez, he was rocked early in the fight. So if Diego Lopez goes out there, he just knocks Ortega out props to him. I think it's possible. However, Ortega's a better wrestler. Ortega early in his career chose not to wrestle. Recently has wrestled a lot coming off a strong submission win against Yair Rodriguez. Diego Lopez doesn't defend takedowns well. I think Ortega can get on top of them. He should have less to worry about than Lopez's typical opponents because Ortega is very swell schooled as a submission grappler. So I'm not too fearful of him getting submitted from top position. I also think Ortega's better in an extended fight probably throws higher volume. Lopez probably has more power at this stage, but Ortega's been very durable throughout a long career. So I have some faith, not a lot of faith, but some faith that Ortega can extend this fight, land takedowns, get on top, potentially outbox Lopez as well. He should provide some leverage against Lopez there at 7.8K plus 300 to win inside the distance. He should place in Diego Lopez in tournaments if he won as well, but I'll be under way to the field and I will take another chance on the underdog better round winner in Ortega at 7.8K. Finally, my matchup of the week, it's going to be the preliminary opener in Ricky Simone against Vinesius Olivera. Simone is the favorite at -238, Olivera plus 199 on draft Kings. Simone's 8.9K, Olivera, 7.3K. And the reason I really like this matchup twofold, A, because of Simone, Ricky Simone averages a lot of takedowns per 15 minutes. It's 5.49 exactly, takedowns per 15 minutes. He's topped out at 14, 7, 7, 6, 6, 6. He lands a lot of takedowns at a lot of fights. That's partially 'cause he's not a good control wrestler or submission grappler, and so once he lands takedowns, he can't do anything with it. That's a problem in his game, but from a fantasy perspective, it's great 'cause he'll just go back to the takedown over and over again and put up massive scores. On draft Kings, he has finished with 112, 106, 98, 131, 107, 101, et cetera. Big scores. So an 8.9K against an opponent in Vinesius Olivera who's a flashy show boater knockout artist. I think Simone can land a bunch of takedowns, can produce a bunch of offense and it can tend for the optimal light up at 9K. However, if things go sour for him, if that lack of control hurts him where he's taking Olivera down, Olivera's getting back up and forcing striking exchanges, all of a sudden, Ricky Simone's in danger. Olivera is a dangerous striker, granted with no defense, but he's got power, Simone's been hurt before, Simone's been knocked out before, and Olivera probably throws more volume. So I think Olivera's gonna push a pace, Simone typically pushes a pace, and it's going to provide a high floor ceiling combo for Olivera as well in a win. I'm definitely on the Simone side here, but I fully acknowledge the danger that Olivera will bring early. And ultimately, it's why I like the matchup as a whole, certainly a good one to target to open up the night. All right, guys, that's gonna do it for this week's UFC. Quick picks, thank you so much for the support. You can follow me on Twitter, but at wwwtwp, establishtherun.com again for all your premium content needs. We'd really love it if you would check us out and support me and the team over there. Best of luck in your contest. Take care, stay safe, and we will talk to you soon. Peace. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music)
