Brett Appley provides his quick preview and makes his UFC Saudi Arabia DraftKings Picks including his favorite Cash Game, Tournament and Salary picks of the week. Brett also provides his signature “Matchup for the Week” for all your DraftKings plays this weekend.
Show Index:
00:00 - Intro
00:48 - DraftKings Cash Play Of The Week
02:16 - DraftKings Tournament Play Of The Week
04:17 - DraftKings Salary Play Of The Week
06:38 - Draftkings Matchup of the Week
08:39 - Outro
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(upbeat music) What's up everyone, welcome to another UFC quick picks here on the Mayo Media Network. We have UFC Saudi Arabia this weekend, early morning, start time, 11 fights on the card, Whitaker, verse. Alaskarov in the main event should be a good event. I am here to give you my favorite cast gameplay, turn to play, salary play, and a matchup I like on the Draft Kings slate. Before I do, please make sure to subscribe to the channel, like the video, and once again, let me know your favorite underdog. I love asking that question. There's plenty of viable underdogs this week. Being on the correct ones, definitely going to help separate you from the field. So always curious to hear what y'all have to say. Without further ado, let's get into my cast gameplay. Of the week, it's going to be Shara Magamadov at 8.8K. All right, cast games this week is a little bit difficult, only because the strength of the 8K range, it's abnormally strong and the 9K range is very strong as well. We still have a clear value here in Shara Magamadov at 8.8K, who should be the priority in your lineups. He was originally supposed to fight a newcomer, a newcomer pulled out. He's getting another newcomer here, but he went from minus 250 to win, to he's now pushing minus 700 to win, depending on where you look against Antonio Trecoli. Magamadov is a striking specialist, does have some ground game concerns, but very strong pedigree, striker and looked incredible on the feet in his UFC debut. Not fighting an opponent who does have some ground skills, but I guess fought a couple of times since 2018. There's not a lot of data on him. He's going to be very big, his opponent, Trecoli, but doesn't seem to have the same skills. I guess we'll get a better profile on him once he debuts in the UFC, but Magamadov is a clear value at 8.8K, very likely to win. The biggest favorite on this card by far should probably be priced at 9.5K, just based on that money line. Gonna have a very strong inside distance line. As well, he should be a cash game priority this week. Next up, my tournament play of the week. I'm going to the very top of the board here with Gadsia Sulav at 9.3K. I do think he will be popular, but on an 11 fight slate, you're going to get a lot of popular fighters. Magamadov is going to be the most popular at 8.8K. Sergey Pavlovitch is going to get a ton of ownership at 8.7K. Fokron Denov is going to get a lot of exposure at 9.2K, and so Gadsia Sulav at 9.3K, he may be popular. I'm just not sure he's going to be ultra chalky compared to other fighters. It depends on how willing people are to pay all the way down, but I quite like him because of his chances to win this fight inside the distance and early against Brinson Ribeiro. Ribeiro is mostly a killer, be killed fighter. Targeted against him in his UFC debut, he got knocked out in the first round. He's tall, he's long, he can throw pretty aggressively, can also grapple a little bit, but unless he's winning very quickly, he tends to get hurt and finished. Gadsia Sulav making his UFC debut a pretty well-rounded prospect from Dagestan. Good wrestler, good grappler, and a very strong striker, put up a bunch of points, would-be points on his contender series fight, where he won by decision, landed six takedowns, 73 significant strikes, looked pretty good there against Jose Medina. I just think Brinson Ribeiro is either going to have to knock Gadsia Sulav out very quickly, or he's probably going to get beaten up and finished himself. And because people are going to prioritize maga maidov, and they're going to prioritize Pavlovitch, and they might even prioritize Falkren Dinov, I do like paying up to the top for Gadsia Sulav at 9.3K. He's got a minus 300 inside the distance line, multiple paths to victory, and assuming that path to victory comes early, I think he has a chance to get him 10 for the optimal lineup. Ideally, I'd like him to grapple, but he can get the job done on the feet as well, very strong high upside tournament play there at 9.3K. All right, next up my salary play of the week, I'm going to drop down to Daniel Rodriguez at 7.3K against Kelvin Gastalem. There's a lot of live underdogs in the upper 7Ks, and I'll be targeting that as well. But I think Rodriguez has a pretty decent chance to win as a big underdog, as a plus 200 underdog against Kelvin Gastalem here. As long as he shows up in four, and he's coming off a recent knockout loss, maybe he's just not there anymore, maybe he's just here for a check, maybe he can't take a punch, maybe Gastalem tries to wrestle. I mean, there are ways for this to go wrong for sure, but Gastalem just, I mean, he's already off weight again, they had to move the weight class 'cause he was too big, it's been a constant issue with him throughout his career, doesn't produce a lot of offense, doesn't even average one take down for 15 minutes. He's landed more than one take down twice in a fight since 2015, he doesn't really wrestle very often, so it's hard to be certain he's going to easily out wrestle with Daniel Rodriguez, he also only lands 3.5 strikes per minute, Daniel Rodriguez is landing 7.3 strikes per minute. Kelvin Gastalem has gone multiple five round decisions where he's landed 89, 91, 62 significant strikes, he just doesn't throw a lot of punches. Daniel Rodriguez throws a lot of strikes. Daniel Rodriguez has gone three rounds, landed 175, 108, 129, 120. If this fight plays out on the fee for any length of time, Rodriguez is going to throw a good amount of volume and he will be competitive with Kelvin Gastalem, if not beating him outright. I still don't think that guarantees him a win, and I don't think Rodriguez's chances of winning inside the distance are that great, he's plus 700, so he's many more of a floor based salary saver than someone who I'm like so excited about is sealing, but you gotta pay down some time. Of course, I will make mid-range constructions, as well, but when you're dropping below Alexander Volkov, there's just not many options. You have the pure punts and Ribeiro and Trokulee, and then you have some more with equity, viable salary plays in Rodriguez, Gordon and Dolby. I think Daniel Rodriguez can win this fight at distance given his volume, assuming he can take a punch or two, and he's my preferred pay down play there at 7.3k. All right, and finally my matchup of the week, it is going to be Sergey Palovitch, reverse Alexander Volkov, Palovitch is the favorite at minus 230, Volkov plus 175 on draft Kings, Palovitch 8.7k, Volkov 7.5k. Palovitch just goes balls to the wall early. All of his fights have ended in round one, win or lose, at least in the UFC, and that's spanned, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight times. He has two first round KO losses, the other six are first round KO wins, 114, 144, 134, 131, 109, 109, 107 in his wins, absolutely smashing, and if Palovitch wins this fight, I think it's by early KO. He's minus 170 to win inside the distance, 8.7k, great upside target there. I do like Volkov, though at 7.5k, I think Volkov has early knockout upside as well. He's a very big striker, and he's got superior cardio and volume and grappling to Palovitch, so I think he has multiple paths to victory. Palovitch just doesn't fight into the second round. Volkov can go five rounds. I mean, Volkov's gone five rounds multiple times. And his only knockout loss in the UFC was a literal last minute KO against Derek Lewis in 2018 in a fight he was dominating. So it's not like he has this long history of getting hurt either. I do think Palovitch can hurt him, but I also think Volkov can win the fight early, can win via striking overextended period, or potentially he could grapple. It's hard to project that, but like Volkov has taken down Curtis Blades and Derek Lewis, and for Brice over Doom, could he go out there and plan to take down on Sergey Palovitch, who was literally destroyed on the mat in a couple of minutes by Alistair over him? I think it's possible either way for 7.5k, I think Volkov has pretty clear upside and maybe a leveraged target against Palovitch as well, he is the dog side of my matchup of the week. All right, that's going to do it for this week's UFC quick picks. Thank you so much for the support. You can follow me on Twitter, bird-apply double T, double P, establishtherun.com for all your draft Kings breakdowns, needs just one, a couple of hours with my boy, Gordo Gamble's there talking over every single fight on the slate, got full written breakdowns, projections up as well. So thank you guys for the support. Best of luck, we'll talk to you all soon. Peace. (upbeat music) Owning a rental property sounds like a dream until you realize how much work goes into getting it ready. Determinate competitive rent price, market the property, schedule the showing screen tenants, draft the lease at a rent collection, handle maintenance request, maintain communication. Whew, sound complicated? Renters warehouse is here to take the hard work off your rental to-do list. Qualified tenants, check, rent collection, check, maintenance coordination, you got it. Go to runnerswarehouse.com for a free rental analysis to find out how much your home can rent for. 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