For All You Kids Out There
Episode 473: "Blackburn singing in the dead of night"
Hey, it is Ryan Seacrest. There's something so thrilling about playing Chumba Casino. Maybe it's the simple reminder that with a little luck, anything is possible. Chumbak Casino.com has hundreds of social casino style games to choose from with new game releases each week. Play for free anytime, anywhere, for your chance to redeem some serious prizes. Join me in the fun. Sign up now at Chumbak Casino.com. Sponsored by Chumba Casino. No purchase necessary. VGW Group, void where prohibited by law. 18-plus terms and conditions apply. Spentations Mets fans welcome to a breaking news edition for all you kids out there. Mets adjacent baseball perspective podcast. I'm your host, Jackie Pedder and Austro. And with me on the car phone is Jared Seidler. Jared, the Mets did some stuff. They definitely did some stuff. They did some interesting stuff. They did some really interesting stuff. So I think the story in this trade done all I want is the best players that were rumored to be out there largely did not move. And the second tier, best of the rest types all returned, frankly, insane value. Unless you were trading with the White Sox. Unless you were trading with the White Sox very specifically. And then that's-- and that's didn't do as well as I thought that they might have been able to. But they also didn't trade a lot of their best pieces. They did fine with for Lane Thomas, frankly, so. I sat in the discourse, and I made this point on the podcast a few times over the last eight or nine months. The Mets have, like, baseball philosophically gotten pretty close to where I am in particular in terms of the type of players they acquire and the types of moves they're trying to do. For positive and negative, there's weaknesses to my evaluation-- strategies and operative strategies as well. But I said in the discord that, if it were me, I would avoid that overpriced big name, second tier guy having a big year. Carlos Estevas, Tanner Scott. Right. Jack Flaherty. Sure. I think Flaherty's a little better than that, but yeah. You say Kakuchi. Yes, you say Kakuchi. Because those guys were all going for basically the same kind of value you would see for actual, like, all-star level returns. And then some of those players may be all-star. Maybe some Blackbird's may be all-star. All Blackbird and former all-star. Very Woponian, former all-star, all-star, all-black bird, yeah. Yeah. But, you know, actually, like all-star, like, hard six soft set site players. And five, like, soft 55s and hard fives, we're going for that at the deadline. I would call Jack Flaherty probably a soft 55. I would call you say Kakuchi hard fives. And those were going from returns that you might have expected had there been-- The Kakuchi return normally, like, I don't think it would have gotten you Garrett Crochet, but it would have gotten you a lot of the way there. Right. It would have gotten you if-- I don't know. Of course, Burns had been traded by the Brewers at the deadline. It would have gotten you that, right? There, yeah. It wasn't the similar in values from what the Orioles actually gave up for Corbin Burns before the season. Yeah, that's true. And I think something to note here is that teams did very well by scooping upside players in creativity on relatively modest contracts and then flipping on them. That's a trumps of clarity that describes their effect. Yeah. That describes a bunch in a really diversely gut world. But this off season, the market seemed to be pretty soft in both trade and free agency. And then in that middle tier specifically, you were able to get good players for not a lot in the offsies. And you saw the meds do this, and some are in open eye and beta. And then those players were going from like, fringe top 100 guys or packages of multiple fringe top 100 guys at the deadline, plus whatever the fuck. So I said that this score that I would arbitrage that one in two ways. And I would do both of these, not one. And they didn't get any from the first bucket, which was that I would take my prospect package and I would send it to offer for Jack Flaherty or Eric Fettie and instead go offer it for Blake Sowell or Derek Crochet or to reach school ball. And I miss the Crochet and school ball where they went. We're going to go for way more than that. But I think it would have been an interesting move for them. Especially because there's financial risk there that wasn't there with Flaherty. But I think you go after the elite players in that situation where the delta between the elite getting the price paid for the elite player and the price paid for the 555 type player is pretty small. That's a marketing efficiency. The other market inefficiency is guys-- The other direction. The more under the-- not far in the other direction, though. And a lot of it is just a lot of its name value or slash line or ERA in the first half or a guy that had a lot of seeds. Is Wesker and Brazoban or Tanner Scott a better picture? Probably Tanner Scott, but it's not like-- But you said probably. I mean, I think Tanner Scott is a better picture. But we're talking about-- It's hard to argue. Especially over the course of the season, right? And they obviously have him for much longer in the course of the season. He's 34, but yes. Right, right. So Tanner Scott goes, and God knows there is a writer from the score. And my mentions going crazy when I mentioned that this return was not actually as wild. But folks, it's probably selling the amount of top 50 prospect in baseball. He's probably not top 200 prospect in baseball right now. He's probably top 200, but he's not top 50. He's not the best piece in that game. He's not the Adamazer, is he? I like Adam. And Adamazer, I described him, I think, in the group chat. It's like 85% of David Festa. Right. And I liked David Festa's pitching at the Met tonight. I should put that game on, actually. My own Scott for a Tanner Scott rental, four prospects were all better than a little friend of all over the Met. Yeah. I did one-for-one for Roscoe. Roscoe. Roscoe. Yes. And I get that Roscoe Roscoe is right-handed, and doesn't have the saves, and doesn't have the track record. But if you're purely evaluating on what appears to be his current true talent level, he's basically the same quality Fedor as Tanner Scott. Right. He's got a weird background, which I think can cut both ways, but might make him a little riskier. But also, Tanner Scott is very capable of having a 60-yard A-season, and has done it in the recent past. We've mentioned this on the podcast over and over and over again. The David Stern's Brewers, and you can even trace this back to one of his and the Astros, if you go back far enough, have always been brilliant in picking up really diverse and from weird backgrounds, and turning them into really good major leaguers, preparing the acquisition cost. So you see that with Brad's Bond, who's controlled forever. You see that with Tyler Zuber, who's controlled forever. And these were relatively low acquisition cost players, so may Tom Boeing under rental. But that was just cash, essentially. Right. That's a rhinophatic, which is not for a particularly good prospect either. He can get the same thing as the rental. But, you know, and they got Jesse Winker, who was a knight. Was that before after the podcast? I don't even remember. I think there was before. Yeah, it was before. We talked about it. Yeah, we talked about Winker. Yeah, Winker's a nice player. Winker is every single player who got traded for a prospect that the Tyler Stewart level is way worse than Jesse Winker's play. He was one of the best-- There were not a lot of bats traded, period. Yes, but he was one of the better guys that got looked. Again, there's problems here. He can't play defense. This is all very swing decision-dependent. He couldn't face a lefty, too. He can never face a lefty. But for what he can bring, the value he can bring to baseball teams-- And especially with this roster. These are very clear roster effects. Right. I mean, they just need a diverse, but yes. Right. And Tyler Stewart was probably the best prospect. It was either him or Kate Morris. They're the kind of the same guy. They're the kind of the same guy. Right, the Mets are good. The Mets were already side-byed toward this super-careful way, because Shelf and Stone signed. And I don't think he's going to get signed. But the Mets drafted, and they've already signed three pitchers. Three college pitchers are already better than those. They're already a better prospect than the guy. 50 dominant. And they were second, third, and seventh round picks. This is not super-high acquisition cost. None of them was wildly over-slot. Stone was actually under-slot there, which I received 1/2 a dozen soft text about from area scallops, cross-seckers, and people of that major. Um, so, you know, they did not trade a lot here. Um, I-- look, there were people, like, Incan definitely met, but the trade had pauled to race. - I like pauled to race. - I get it. I-- yeah, I like pauled to race, too. The race are also a lot better. It's developing pitchers. It's pauled to race, you know, arm-clocked type stuff. And the Mets are-- they treated him for a, like, pitch. Yeah, they could have signed Tyler Zuber for nothing. - Yeah, they didn't. - But they didn't. - They didn't. - Yeah. We now have a lot of data, most of them in a AAA, and some of it in the major leagues. But she guessed from Tyler Zuber, it's quite a good venture. We're there for right now. I mean, he kind of was for the royals before he got hurt, too. Yeah, and he had all those command problems, but he's got a really nifty fastball, and he's got two really nifty sliders. So, you know, what, we'll go through these one-by-one and talk about the Fits, but the overwhelming thing here is the Mets did not trade anybody that they were particularly likely to miss, and they got-- - I didn't want to frame this. Like, if you wanted them to really push in and try to lock down a wildcard spot, they did not do that either. They're gonna have a fight the rest of the year. You know, the Cardinals did a fair bit. The Padres certainly did, so. - What's the actual breath of season projected belts in between Paul Blackburn and Zach Farley? - No, I know, but I'm gonna say, if you wanted the-- - My players weren't out there. - Right, they were out there and didn't get trained. - Yes, they've significantly raised the floor of this team, which is what they need. They're not going to be able to, like, look. It's any of, like, like Tanner Scott and Carlos Estebas, any of these receivers are capable of running off of five ERA for the rest of the season, right? I mean, one of the advantages, some of them have options, so you can cycle them out if it goes bad for a couple of weeks, or. - Right, the relief part, I don't want to hear anybody complaining that they didn't get a proven veteran pull of that line. The pitchers that they got are better than most of the proven pull of them as we got traded. By sure, Brad's bonding, Carlos Estebas are the same fucking pitch. - More or less. - One of them got traded for guys who are gonna make a little lot, and one of them got traded for a guy who wasn't in the top 30 prospect of medicine. Samuel up and Gary is a way better prospect than the Wilfredo are, and here's the second guy. - I mean, how do Gary is probably better than Stewart or Morris, or at least three, probably. - Yeah, Samuel up and Gary would have been the best prospect of the best traded by a significant margin, and was like the fourth best prospect of the ability to trade it. And the Phillies did not get significantly more meaningful pieces than what the meds got. They may have actually gotten worse pieces than what the meds got on total aggregate. So, yeah, this is not, if you are here for the dopamine hit of name valued players, you did not get that. If you are here for smart moves that marginally increase the match chances, one of getting to the playoffs, and two having playoff success once they get to the playoffs, this was a masterful deadline. If you are somewhere in the middle, I can't tell you how to feel about it. If you, there's people that really wanted the meds to sell, I can't say that that's wrong for what players were returning. - Right, if you could, I don't know if you-- - They weren't going to do it, they're in the, they're in the wild part. They weren't gonna say they weren't gonna solve wild part. Could they have soft-sold certain players while also buying something similar to what the clubs are, the giants did? Yeah, they could have, that would have been an option, but those teams are also further back. They're not getting in the wild part. You're gonna have, we've touched about this. - Because of this kind of injury, I get being a little more conservative about trading from your pitching cohort right now. - You're gonna upset the clubhouse, you've got veteran leaders in your clubhouse, you can go to Brandon Nemo now and say, look, we got Oscar Bazabon, who used to, you've seen this year, we've got an all-star starting pitcher, yeah. - Yeah. - You know, like, then the leader's down. - That's a real good player, yeah. - Yeah. - And these are, you know, but Paul Blackburn's, actually, like her, players at Brandon Nemon, Princess Paul, and Dorff, her, now, she probably think are pretty good. - Yeah, well, let's talk about Paul Blackburn, 'cause I guess he's probably the biggest ad 'cause he's gonna go into the rotation. - Yeah, they came up to Morris, it was a prospect that I think I like a little more than you, but I also like less than I did in the off season. - Yes. - Not that he's had a bad season, not that he's not a decent prospect still, but it's fastball backed up in the pro. - Yeah, like the stuff that happened. - That happened. - The stuff they are trying to do with him isn't working, basically, it's the short, so far. - He is a fastball loopy curve-type guy, and that's a tough profile once he hits AA. And if you've got fastball loopy curve guy, so you can get significant trade value out of while he's running a nice start-out rate in PA, without really the type of trades that are gonna lead to a mid-rotation or higher outcome, that's probably not a bad time to cash out, 'cause a lot of these guys just get hammered and don't know what. Late, I don't know, he was round three, so it was day two college, early day two, early day two college, I'm killing April. - You have to compensate for not finding Brandon Sprold the first time to the funny background. - It is a funny background. And I always kind of liked Paul Blackburn. He is what he is, I suppose. It's like a number four starter. - There are smart people within the game that thought he was one of the best starting ventures and he's gonna get moved and bought his pitch selection and especially is perhaps too high use of his fit, his foreseem and sinkers in Oakland. - I mean his foreseem has a 700 foot back. - Looking against this year. - Yes. This is arguably a guy who should never throw a traditional fastball. - He has a cutter. - Primary's cutter, yeah. Yeah, and I don't know if that's a change that the men are going to try and make. It might be a change they try and make in the off season. They might have something else up there. - We should note he has another year of control too. And keep on at that. - Right. They might just be saying, hey, Paul Blackburn's and we needed to replace Chris and Scott in any serious ball block. - Right, he's more likely to pitch to a four ERA the rest of the season than Tyler Miguel. We need to just backstop, right, that starter spot. Again, raising the floor. - He's not, he's, yeah. I mean, it raises the floor, raises the ceiling slightly, especially if you want to stay in a six man rotation. There are people that think that there's like a number three type starter down here. - Yeah, maybe, I mean, yeah. - I'm not convinced of that, but I also don't think it matters. - Yeah, I'm not terribly convinced of it either. He's generally been pretty consistently like a fourth starter. So he's probably going to continue to consistently be a fourth starter. But, you know, he's kind of in that batch. Him versus Louis Summerino, rest of the season's probably a pretty close home point look. He would probably take Summerino. But again, because he had pitched okay, but not great, but more importantly, he missed a couple of months. He just did not return type of a prospect that a, you think, you could say. - He's missed a couple of months every year. It hasn't really, it's been mostly fake stuff, but. - Right, but he doesn't have recurring, you know, elbow soreness or whatever. - And, you know, he doesn't throw very hard, and there's certainly a perception he's been held by Oakland's Park, even though it's home road sports are actually reverse. - And he has a huge home road, which you would think would not be the case for. - Right, so this is not, this is not an ace or a projected ace. This is us discussing whether the math have a viable path to get this back end starter to a mid rotation starter, but also given the prices that anybody who is capable of throwing with a hand for 90 pitches in game either hand was going towards the deadline, especially given the extra year control, the matches didn't give up a lot here. And again, part of this is, and I think they did this a little bit intentionally, they probably targeted teams that were not particularly gonna set player acquisition in trades. - And, you know, some trade offs is not particularly-- - And if you look at what, like, you know, we can move on, like what Jesse Winker went to and compared to Lane Thomas, right? And Thomas has another year of control, and that's not insignificant here, but-- - Right. - Like, you know, do you really want Lane Thomas as you're starting out fielder in 2025, if you're serious fact, I know he's fine. - He's a model guy. - Yeah. - The models are really like him. The models think that he's the first division regular, but yeah, I mean, I'm not trading Alex Karmy and Ramon Ramirez and-- - Raphael Ramirez. - Once they came, yeah. - Raphael Ramirez, excuse me. - Well, they're Ramirez would have been a whole lot of fun. - Yeah. - Raphael Ramirez was one of those 18, yeah, and again, you know, that's not a lot of risk to Karmy. - Yeah. - But there's a lot bigger, like, if Katie Morris works out pretty well, he's gonna be Paul Blackburn basically. - Basically. - Alex Karmy really works out. He could be a number two starter from the left-hand side. - Like, it's a little, it's, I mean, it's a good slider already and he's like just turned 19. - Right, it's kind of a weird release. - It is. - Again, another guy or some of the metrics backed up a little in Pro Ball and Fastball, and that's something that's become common. - I mean, still 95 from the left side and kind of deceptive. Like, that's still-- - Right. - That's something to worry about. - I mean, it's a similar value prospect for, like, Jonah Tong. And the metrics did not give up any of their Jonah Tongs or all of them to play into the deadline, whereas pretty much every other contender had to. So, yeah, I mean, you know, and then they did a lot of work on the Ball 10. - Yeah. - I think the best guy they traded for was Rosebond. - Yeah, probably. - As you know, they're just a bizarre background at this point. He's 34 years old but has one year of major league service, so he's essentially going to be team-controlled for pretty cheap throughout his relevance. It's majorly relevant. - I will say, David Stern is now on the mark of the reminder. He's a very nice blue-heather quarter zip-on for this press conference. It's a very nice-- - Yeah, it does. You know, Brassbond, you know, you can go and look at the red bubbles on a-- - Yeah, it's, look, it's a 101-hour sinker and he gets a 40% whiff rate on his change-up. You should be able to work. - Right. - His change-up has, like, wacky horizontal whiffle-ball type movement. - Yeah. - And yeah, big piece. - Yeah, he's probably the second best arm in that book and pretty much immediately. I don't know. - No, no, no, no lower than like 4th once Nunez is healthy. - And they give up Lefreda Lara, who, yeah, Chris said this publicly, who had a private discussion about this. - Well, Fran Lara probably can't hit. - Yeah, probably. - And even if he does, there's just, like, she's maxed out. Like, there's just not, he has swing and miss and doesn't have a lot of damage, which is usually not a combo that is good. - Right, like, he takes the ball reasonably hard for a 20-year-old, but I don't know how much hard he's gonna hit it either. And he's been hurt and not-- - Right, it's not like-- - It's not like, like, there's just, like, there's nothing here. Like, there's a bunch of, like, there's a bunch of 45 to it. - Yeah, yeah. - Some that are not even that high. - He reminds me a little bit of, who is it? William Lugo, I feel like that kind of, where it's like, everything's fine. - Yeah. - But Lugo is, like, a slightly better prospect, but also not really, so. - Right. Like, this borrow is not really in serious, and serious, and for a top 20 left there, and his pocket is significantly down this year. - Oh, yeah. - Um, I, when I heard Mets are training for Hashnow Brad's event, I thought they were giving up, like, Nolan McLean or Jeremy Rodriguez, or somebody like that. They did not. I assume that the Marlins had no use for a 34-year-old infielder, and just took a guy off on the list but an area scout, or a 34-year-old, really good character. I just took a guy, their area-- - I just-- - Peter Bendex is completely relieved. - Went down a lot. - Yeah, it's completely relieved. - Right, yeah. - Shaping this roster in his image, and I guess, yeah, 34-year-old reliever. - Well, there's no reason to do it. - Yeah, this brass band can't be on your roster for the rest of the season if you're tanking once a point. - Okay. - Um, he's gonna be 35 next season. 35-year-old reliever in the offices and not returning anything. So, um, they got a body. They got a body. I'm guessing they have a nice report on them. I don't, nobody I talk to has. I am confused by that one. But hey, great, great move. You leveraged a basically a non-prospect into a really good leveraged arm, great move. We love that. We love to see it. We talked about static. We talked about winker. The holder face for Tyler's Zuber trade is just absolutely wild. - Yeah. - So, Gervais, I don't know how much we've ever actually discussed him on the top. - It's like a middle leaf prospect with maybe like the rates might get a little more out of that, but. - So, I'd actually be worried about trading this guy at a raise because they're just really good with this type of prospect. - Sure. - He's like 26 feet tall. - Six foot tall. - Yeah. And he, you're assuming he's just like gonna come like over the top and have like one of these big guys. - Yeah. - He drops down the lane and throws like somewhere between like low three quarters and high sidearm and then just like falls off of the mound, like weirder than like anybody I've ever seen in my life. She has a really inconsistent release point. - Yeah. - And his thoughts that, you know, I watered down as I'm the last person on the planet that is gonna be talking in 2024 about release violence related command problems. Jesus Christ, he has release related violence command problems. - Yeah, one of the feedback I got on him was like, I'm not sure if he can stay healthy basically doing this. - Right. Like it's, yeah, and he can't throw strikes. Now, would I be shocked if the raise, and we know what the raise means here, the raise already have this mechanical fix in a book somewhere. - Maybe. - But also they aggregate these guys and some of them turn out and some of them don't. But you're right. - Right. And, you know, Zuber, we talked about ahead, but there's a lot of evidence that Zuber is a good major league, whoever it are. - Also as options. - The reason you're, right. The reason you're able to get him in this trade is because of the weird background and because he has not had major league success this year. He just hasn't been in the majors. It's not that he hasn't, he's been in the majors and bad. But that's why you're able to get him in a relatively low up position class. 'Cause, again, their race has no chance. - The raise might just want the 40-man spot, right? - Yeah. - Yeah. - They don't turn it. - They don't turn it. - They have Noah Carlson. - Yeah. - They got J.D. Davis, like we're churning and burning. - They got J.D. Davis. I didn't even see that. - Yeah, that was one of the later trades. - Yeah. So that's a trade I kind of, that's a challenge trade. That's like weird reliever for weird reliever. I'm not sure the Mets are at the point of the development curve where I would be doing weird reliever challenge trades with the raise and specific. - Sure, but they weren't gonna put your raise into the major league bullpen right now anyway. So. - No, I saw somebody saying they should do that. No, they shouldn't even work for two guys for nine in the majors right now. Like it would not, it would not. Why do you get hammered because you have to start, you have to start throwing the whistle balls together. They're not what beach balls, you get them in the strike zone. I mean, you wouldn't do that to the player. So I got a nice, really far from that. Did I miss any of these trades? - No, that's everything. - Yeah. So in general, you know, you got a nice light-up upgrade against the right-handed pitching. But I think it's really gonna, you know, that's likely to be, that's a pretty stable skill center like I know he's been banned certain years recently, but even when he's been banned, he's got an amazing, I'm sorry, he hasn't pitched it. So you've got, he's got that. You've got a nice rotation upgrade with Paul Blackburn. Again, if your goal here was to get two pitchers so good, that you were never gonna have Tyler McGillow part another game for the Mets. They didn't do that. - Yeah. - It kind of sounds like with all of these relief pitchers coming in and comments that Carlson, those are made last night, plus the uses of Jose Boudol, but they're probably hearing what they Boudol is a deadline and starting pitching acquisition. I don't know. - I don't know if it's gonna play out that way, we'll say because they, I pretty much just... - I don't know if anything has been said to that effect and concerns this press conference, obviously I'm driving as people. - I ended up doing current podcasting. - Yeah. - Okay. - But yeah, and then you've got, you know, you've got a bunch of interesting relief acquisitions and it's varying from Bogg's standard guys that have been around forever and have lots of major experience, like Matton and static, to some really weird, funky nifty ones like Zuber and Brazzaboth. Again, if you were looking for the dopamine hit of a smart player who serves you, you could buy, there is no such thing here. I'm sorry, you've come to the wrong place. David Sterns was not the general manager of president of baseball operations for you to begin with. - If you are looking for information on Nicholas Corrino, who they got for the Josh Walker DFA, I do have that and somebody wanted it. So we'll wrap up with this, Q for the P for Matthew. What's up guys? What do you think of Nicholas Corrino? I mean, he's an 18 year old DSL repeater. I know Jared mentions his draft philosophy kind of shrugs off command issues. Side note, I was supposed to see an actual prospect moved in the deal. He's a two pitch lefty in the DSL that likes, it's 94 with an interesting gyro slider. So for a Josh Walker DFA, why not? - Let me tell you why they did that. 'Cause they just signed a lot of draft guys because DSL guys don't count against the domestic player limit of 165. - Right. That's one less guy they have to cut from the, yeah. - Everybody who is looking for DSL arms that has been particular at this year's deadline because they were trying to warehouse pitchers for next March for the low riders. - So there you go. That's good. We did our 25 minutes. Good deadline. A lot of baseball left to be played, including in like 15 minutes. I have to go record a three hour five and nine. So we'll see you this weekend for another edition of For All Your Kids Out There. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) - It is Ryan Seacrest here. There was a recent social media trend which consisted of flying on a plane with no music, no movies, no entertainment. But a better trend would be going to chumbacacino.com. It's like having a mini social casino in your pocket. Chumbacacino has over a hundred online casino style games, all absolutely free. It's the most fun you can have online and on a plane. So grab your free welcome bonus now at chumbacacino.com. 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