The Cārvāka Podcast

Decoding Lok Sabha 2024 And Indian Media

In this podcast, Kushal speaks with Prasanna Viswanathan from Swarajya Magazine about the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections and the commentary around them from all corners. We also discuss the future of Indian media, especially in the non-left space.

Follow Prasanna: Twitter: @prasannavishy

#BJP #NarendraModi #loksabha2024

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Duration:: 1h 21m
Broadcast on:: 24 Jun 2024
Audio Format:: mp3

All right, my guest today is someone I actually met I don't remember the exact year but we've only met once actually in person. There was long ago in the ideas Conclave. I think it was 2018 or something or 17. I don't remember which one it was but I know him through social media. I think it the year 2009 or 10. I don't remember the exact year and this is way before you know the BJP government or Modi was the prime minister. There were some of us who used to be on social media criticizing the UPA government criticizing its policies from a policy perspective not from a rhetoric or a heckling perspective. We were actually you know I remember Prasana being there Hamar being there Vijay who's handle is Interact India Sunanda Vashisht at that time used to be there and it's just a coincidence that Prasana has never come on the podcast but Prasana finally you've come and I'm so happy to to have you here. So thanks for coming to this. I'd be outset you know really grateful for hosting me. I think like we kind of discussed a couple of times in terms of you know opportunity to participate in your podcast. Unfortunately it didn't materialize and I have also generally been like not trying to participate. So I made an exception because I just love the work that you're doing. I've been a admirer of your podcast you know and it's not that you're hosting me that I'm saying it's a very very important platform in the sense one hats of it you're perseverance you know it's very very important that you know I've seen a lot of initiatives which kind of you know start off and then peter out and all that and and and you've kind of sustained it for a long time with such a diverse set of get and it's also very important that you know it's not it's not merely eco-chamber so as to speak to use the often misused word but I mean but you kind of engage with such diverse voices and more power to you Kushal and I also know that you know like you get a lot of I mean what do you call pushback and all that stuff but I genuinely think that unless unless you stand for something obviously polarizing happens because you essentially represent a very strong point of view so I think I think you've really done a great job and also you know I just want to take this opportunity to congratulate you for writing a book okay and and I'm sure it's a labor of love and I honestly I've been halfway through it I my colleague Arvindan has read it and he wrote a pretty you know very effusive review about it and Arvindan is as you know he's a phenomenal writer and thinker and probably that he thinks very highly of the book I it got me very excited and I am hoping to finish it I've been little distracted last week so at this week I'll definitely read it and I I it's it's very important that you know books are written you know like like social media may all of us have this stream of consciousness we say the different things are views evolve and all that and but writing a book means like it's a very painstaking process where you know you have to have the clarity and to write like say 10,000 words you must have probably read 200,000 words distilled it and picked up the insights and phenomenal hats off we shall very proud of your efforts both on the podcast and also your latest book actually thank you thank you very much and you know it means it meant so much to me where I did not know Arvindan was going to review my book full disclosure because Faraje had already carried an excerpt right so I did not know Arvindan was going to do it I I I have never shared any review of my books I'm gonna say but when I saw Arvindan review my book it it meant so much to me he's because Arvindan is a person I I I he's a formidable he is a formidable scholar whichever way you look at whether you agree with him or not he is a I've always said he's a teacher he is one of the foremost thinkers his problem is he he is if you are a recluse Arvindan is a person on steroids I know I think also he's looking occasionally constrained at least I live in a city where probably which is best connected to rest of India Arvindan lives in like essentially the southernmost tip of India and you know like and of I mean of course he's very self-effacing and he he's also you know that's that's how I think and also it helps him probably to keep his sanity and read so many books and take away that's told me I think that's very important as long as you're not in the thick of things right you get a much more holistic perspective probably could be could be I mean for me it meant so much that someone I look up to and and I deeply admire when when he wrote that I personally messaged him I was like the Arvindan this means a lot to me that you know you took your time and you actually reviewed the book and and I thanked him for that because there are very few people in this in this in this space that are truly you know what what is called seekers Arvindan is one of the he's just brilliant and and also I think he's I always believe that one of the things that has happened you know in India is that decline of like the bilingual intellectual right like see you really look at it you know people almost like write in English or probably in Hindi and all that there are like very few very very few people very profound thinkers writers who are like you know comfortably traverse two languages actually mean you know like it's not about just merely knowing or writing it's also about you know distilling your thoughts and I mean maintaining the intellectual content and quality you know Arvindan is equally good in Tamil as well I mean of course that that gets restricted because it's the geography is limited so it's it's always good that he writes in English as well quite extensively so I think that that kind of crossover where you know we need thinkers and writers in both the languages I think that is something unfortunately I know it's it's largely on the decline I would say yeah but so during this is your first time on the podcast obviously people might know you get into this you know you had a nice job you had a good time in a life good yeah so yeah so why why did you get into all of this wasn't up no actually yeah it's quite a I've always thought through see I think largely speaking you know I wanted to kind of you know like do 15 years of quote-unquote corporate weight-slaving maybe 15 years where I want to try out and you know leave my passion and probably 15 years of maybe retired life actually okay so so that's I mean that was one of the things that I always hadn't met but I never had any idea how to operationalize it and all that so so basically during my 15 years of IT industry consulting I worked with various companies Honeywell Oracle then finally with Cognizant you know I kind of traveled very extensively across the world on consulting assignments and all that and I had actually a lot of you know time to think and introspect and all and I picked up casual reading and then kind of became very seriously engaged with topics like politics economics and all of course very under my life as well when I I grew up reading a bit but I was never serious and like probably by 1819 I was completely disengaged from any political or economic discourse because then college life and then your professional life and also I think like when I had this 5-6 year stint abroad is when you kind of miss your country much and you know you see you start making comparisons right like say like what India you know our strengths are weakness relative to you know developed societies abroad and what they did right what could be learned and so many things right like and and that kind of set out a journey and of course I have to also make a disclosure that I've always been a very ideologically a very staunch you know what you call as the Hindutva leaning I mean I've never been to a kind of a sung shaka or something like that but I've largely been broadly speaking a Hindutva sympathizer because my political consciousness or you know my worldview was largely shaped by this early 90s which is we had this mandar movement we had this mandal movement and we had this markets which is the liberalization so it's like maybe I was a product of all these three what do you call streams that were like unleashed in the early 90s okay so so that way I have essentially been like a thing and another disclosure is that I've never voted for any other party than BJP all my life in fact the first time I voted I think the constituency may I voted I think I was one of the 475 voters for the party and I mean I was very I was like I think in Tamil Nadu they got like around 18 percent now the alliance that they were part of so and a lot of people are disappointed and I remember the first time I ever voted though though I must say that ever since I moved to Bangalore I've never voted for a losing candidate or I mean every time I voted for the party that wins here so that's one of the advantages of living in a city like Bangalore I mean digressing so so around 2009 right like when upa government was reelected and all that broadly a lot of people sympathetic to the BJP as a political party and Hindutva movement as an ideology where all you know a bit of a what do you call crossroads in terms of how how because I think 2009 the magnitude of upa I wouldn't call it a victory I think like they won probably 210 seats and now like a single party winning 240 is still seen as an underwhelming performance but of course they won whatever congress alone won I think 205 or 7 and it was quite a shell shock because I mean that verdict was a bit of a surprise after what happened series of bomb blasts and you know you remember I think you're from Mumbai you should be distinctly remembering 2008 and all that stuff and that I think kind of set off a big turning in the internet actually I think like you said around 2008 and 9 obviously blogs were very big and Twitter kind of emerged I think like since I used to travel a lot and all that and early adopter of some of the social media Twitter is also actually a good forum where you could connect to like-minded people and then you know I mean and very high quality introspection and discussion around you know the economic ideology the country is going to head towards so I mean you know the political mobilization and all that and I think like the defeat kind of energized people in a certain unforeseen certain un what you would call say I mean I think that the the the people all came together voluntarily and actually it unleashed a lot of energy which I had eventually led to you know Modi which is a merger since and then of course confluence of our audience and then finally we had we started a blog because at those times I think blog was the only way and and we the the Indian mainstream media escape was completely dominated by left-wing voices I actually there was no ideological absolute ideological homogeneous here and a few other folks there but largely speaking you know it was a complete ideological homogeneity so that's how we started this blog uh uh uh uh Kushal I think you you might it have been one of the earliest readers of it which is called uh Central right India and then and then you know we were able to attract awesome the brightest minds uh in our side of this spectrum or what are you call as the non-reg side of this spectrum so even few hundred writers were all unhurt as a part of that blog okay and then eventually that blog then led into the uh Swarajya so that's that's you know and and Swarajya is like a platform we we kind of you know then decided to do it for a as a for-profit venture and then be kind of that of inverse and that's how that's how the Swarajya journey started and it's been like so Swarajya as you know you know it used to be a very uh very consequential publication which was originally founded by see Raj Gopalachari way back in the 1950s in fact it was actually the only voice of dissent at that time against the you know the Nehruvans socialism, statism and it always had a very powerful cultural and civilizational orientation as well and it was actually to be fair you know it's also the mouthpiece of a political party called the Swatantra party incidentally Swatantra was the opposition party in the 1967 Lok Sabha it won the largest number of seats after congress and it was founded by Rajaj G so it kind of you know was in publication that largely reflected the worldview of Swatantra party which was like for less government you know being unapologetic about India's civilizational past and culture and and of course it was taught by the congress of those days as a party of the aristocrats party of the feudals party of the landed delight and party of the rich and all that you know that that those were the days of the Garibihatau and Indra Gandhi becoming the messiah or whatever of the poor and basically some of the most it I think probably Swarajya was the only publication it's kind of took a position again to all those back nationalization insurance nationalization wave that was unleashed in the 70s you know and it had who's who of the you know the economic right and cultural right writing for it but like any publication which is like identified with a very charismatic founder right like once Rajajee died in early 70s it kind of sees publishing though it had a it had like very very important personalities who edited it for instance R Wangatraman who later went out to become the president of India was one of the editor of the publication you know and some very interesting people there was a editor called Sprat Phil Sprat he basically came to India to form and the communist revolution okay and then he came in contact with some good parties of Mumbai and then who kind of drew you know a short light to him about how stupid his ideology was then and then he converted completely to the other side and even he was a editor of the publication so it's kind of very interesting in but today's discourse he'll be called a turn court on social media so India actually has always been a exporter of you know I think this is like quite different because I think a lot of Indian comrades have gone and set up communist party elsewhere like how MNC set up subsidiaries across the world and all so there were so so all those exchange of ideas have happened so eventually it kind of ceased publishing and and 70s 80s 90s was all about like congress you know dominating discourse wise you know total control of media completely you know I mean of course Indian Express and others were during times of emergency and all but largely you know the state broadcaster and all the state apparatus was largely controlled by them and so by 2014 we thought that like with a kind of significant traction for an alternate ideology in the country and you know and and we could revive Swarajya as a publication and by the time the entire media consumption patterns began to change but not as dramatically as what it has happened today so it was a kind of an inflection point where print was still big and digital was emerging but since we had a blog we had a antecedence in a blog our dear name was fundamentally digital you know so we kind of did both digital and print actually our footprint was definitely more enormous in the digital but still around 2014 for you to have a certain credibility so as to speak and certain gravitas or you know certain could be taken even remotely seriously you still had to be a print publication so that that's that was the thinking and so it was a monthly print magazine but a daily digital so that's how it's been running and we've originally had Mr. Santipantib who was a who's actually interestingly been also second with two big magazine projects and India the outlook and later he went on to form the open so he was a part of the original fine founding team and he kind of ran it for a couple of years and then later he had to kind of relinquish for health reasons then I think the biggest editorial movement for us came when Mr. R. Jagannath and Jackie as he popularly known as a very what he called a very one of the most well-known and probably the one of the very erudite and a veteran journalist who kind of you know writes probably according to me personally at least he's the best when he writes in the intersection of politics and economics actually and he basically comes with a business journalism background he joined us as an editorial direction and then he steered us for three four years and then you know like we've we've been like building on a readership revenue model largely with we see we have around 30,000 subscribers now paid subscribers and ever since Covid what has happened Kushal is that digital has become really big actually like like for anybody who start starting now right there is basically no economics in a print model I mean we also kind of you know do print as a more as a premium product because some of her uh we are our demographics is like slightly skewed you know like more widely traveled people 40 plus professional you know aspirational Indians and all that stuff and some of them still read or like people who have nostalgia for the whole Swarajian even like you know the old demographic so we continue to do print and print also provides us opportunities for some depth coverage and all that stuff but by 2020 I think fundamentally it's completely shifted to the digital consumption and also you know the governments also have largely you know adopted to the digital like for example almost every government has a digital advertising policy right now actually so for the media publications and I have to be honest that a significant part of the revenue for any publication whether it's a public big pay mouth to a probably uh any other reasonably successful publication because government continues to be the biggest pender on government's meaning I'm not talking about the union government governments across parties across states they are a significant part so even though we largely have built a model around readership revenue revenue we do have some digital advertising revenue models as well and if we've kind of been successful I think scalability will be a ongoing challenge for us and and all the media you know there are so many dramatic trends some foreseen some which will be unforeseen it's going to hit you so what obviously we are uh we are a reasonably small player so you know there are always challenges and uh I mean uh agility is there but some of the challenges are so overwhelming that like typically it hits a smaller player much more right so so a lot of the entire media economics is in a way broken it's in a way challenging so I kind of you know it's kind of moving in a way where either you have to be a real behemoth to survive or I think I'm also seeing the emergence of individual brands like who will uh who will also challenge the media so you don't need to be like a big media institution one individual can become like a powerful media brand itself you know uh of course I don't need to talk about the rise and rise of social media and the dis intermediation that has happened and all that stuff you know so so of course quality can be patchy in all this because if if there is a proliferation there is low entry barriers so proliferation of digital outlets are there a lot of it are suboptimal initiatives but the good ones can thrive in terms of monetary model I think readership revenue one good thing we did is that we devoted to a readership revenue model very early actually by with a paywall and all that stuff so we were able to build a reasonably good readership revenue model based on subscription but I think after covid almost even the big media publications in India right everybody is now in the digital space you know see they were all invested very comfortably in a print model and there was a there was an economics for them because they were already sorted there they had like mammo distribution network like say somebody like times of india and all that but after covid you know there was also a challenge for them and many of them and also you know fundamentally it's also driven by the fact that the readership is completely moving digital and the younger leaders younger readership is like I think like almost 100% digital already uh I mean either they either the urban consumer rural consumer of course the consumption patterns are very different but it's fundamentally digital okay so they have also moved to the digital and the subscription model like almost every like 150, 160 publishing houses in India competing for your you know limited wallet in terms of the subscription so you know that model is a is also coming under challenge and so that that's likely the situation and see one thing I I I also feel is that only two kinds of media products can succeed one which is like basically say a wall street journals of the world or f t of the world or something like that where they give you like real useful information for business decision makers or you know they make a sense of how the world is or you know at least they they make you an informed decision making what they are like a useful for say a business or a you know or a trader or a stock market or something on the other side I would say that ideological publication still stand a chance because obviously people will want to kind of you know they swore by a certain worldview on the way in which ideological polarizations are happening is also like people want to kind of you know strengthen their prejudice or you know feel comfortable in seeing the world that they want to see through a publication that kind of mirrors their position okay so so there is always a ideology passion part of it which also kind of turns into a model in itself I mean that comes with certain limitations and possibly I mean I might have to be careful in using the word maybe danger but but obviously you know like you know if they broadly agree with your sensibility and they identify with your worldview there's definitely a model actually okay so I besides that if you're very generic and don't offer anything differentiation either in terms of very cutting edge analysis or you know anything like that I think it might be a struggle because I think the basic news is almost commoditized now right actually so so you know I think that's how the model is evolving so I I hope I probably took five minutes extra but gave you a step so I actually I actually have a few questions now so about about what you've said so on this content consumption pattern right I was on statistic and many other portals I was looking at differences between consumption patterns and rural and urban obviously you know in rural in India obviously regional language content even on digital gets far more views and yeah then English content does I mean nobody can vouch for it more than I can I do English language content so my views are far less compared to all Hindi Tamilayal Telugu ones but what is very interesting is even today if you are an English language content generated in India your ad rates your your ad your click revenue all those things tend to be higher if you are a good English language communicator so let's say if you are a Hindi language communicator in India and you might have four times three times five times the views you still don't generate that kind of revenue in Hindi because the ad placements are different compared to the English language even on YouTube I have started to notice that I knew that was the case and in print media and mainstream media which is the visual medium of being mainstream channels right but I want to talk to you about the future of non-left discourse now I mean you I mean you were not wrong in stating that I you know I I'm very firm in my views in many ways like I've never hidden my views on on many things inside my own you know society faith system or on other faith systems or but I have a very very low opinion of content generation in India on average I I have never hidden that I mean I consistently tell people to subscribe to Swarajah not because you know Prasana you are my friend or I like Amur or for any other reason I've actually enjoyed Swarajah I have consistently read Swarajah I read it all the time I have tremendous you know heartfelt respect for Jagi Jagi knows this I've said this so many times to him offline I look up to him I look up to a lot of these people who I grew up you know whether it's Kanchanda the Jagi Chopanda and many others these were like what these were small you know lights that we had in darkness who used to speak up and and talk about you know right of center policies and and and from a from a Hindutva perspective try to explain Hindutva but what has happened now and listen it's a natural thing when when Hindutva leaning government comes into power many avenues are opened up and many when many avenues are opened up there is a hold of people that will come in but what in general I am noticing whether it's the left or the non-left space with the digital takeover what seems to work on the digital space Prasana is only shocking that you literally have to peddle absolutely batshit crazy conspiratorial theories whether and you have to pander to such a horrific audience if you want to peddle views I don't know if you have to you have noticed even the global right and left have realized that if we shit on India or if we shit on Hindus we get engagement and then see their advertising models is what they do a presentation they say views ads please they don't know how they are generating views so everybody like till the extent that when I had presented a study about the BBC last year where I showed a study where they actually did a content analysis relating to India of the BBC Al Jazeera and one more portal and they were like the entire coverage was negative and then somebody asked them off the record why do you do it why do you hate India so much like we don't hate India I mean in the case of Al Jazeera we can't say that but in the BBC they were quoting some anonymous source in the BBC BBC that we don't hate India this is just what sells correct so how do we control this as you know people I consider Swaraji to be the sensible non-left wise which is why I always tell people subscribe to Swaraji subscribe to Swaraji I mean you know it for a fact how many people like I've gifted Swaraji subscriptions to people I'm like yeah please go read this is a sensible voice this is what we're supposed to be but how do we sell sensibility in a time when it's so it's so easy to say oh all Hindus are dying all Muslims are dying all Sikhs are under threat or all the you know climate change is real we are all going to die like Greta Thunberg says very tough question with so many different aspects to it I mean I think it deserves the podcast in itself see I broadly agree with you that I mean of course I'm also not essentially of such a great fan of nuance or something like that I think like I think that should be a sense of passion and maybe quote unquote tribalism even an online discussion and all that but I think right now what is happening is that I think the algorithms of all the tech behemoth right especially I think like Twitter Insta I think it is kind of increasingly kind of geared towards encouraging a certain kind of polarization I think like you said there is also a business model aspect to it actually and see and also all these BBCs of the world and I did they've also kind of you know realized the size of the English speaking market in India is like quite massive and Indians are like lot of you know the Diaspora Indians and like I mean you know Indians are pretty much all across the world and good positions and various IT industries and all that and then this what you call this flame beating and you know provocate deliberately being provocative and you know and all that has the enormously corner but I think like even in Twitter if you noticed in the last one month right I think like a lot of engagement farming is happening by even individual influencers by resorting to you know outright racist theory typing about India and all that no and probably they've all realized that like you know I mean if you do any racial theory typing there are like say millions of Indians on Twitter even though it's as a fraction of our population it's like miniscule but I think in the platform that's a huge number right and they come down and then your engagement goes up and all so I think that part of it I think is now a recent addition of I mean you have the historic Hindu phobia and you know the leftist worldview of you know the caste kareeko the 3c syndrome that is like the old cipoying but I think like that continues to be broadly the template from say traditional academic establishment and all that I mean I'm oversimplifying but you know you outgrowth of this kind of prejudice but I also see a new wave of targeting Indians Hindus essentially also as the business model actually like like like you know that that's also happening so see like for example I see like a lot of say occasionally I see like alt-right in the US or you know the far right guys in even UK sometimes just say randomly racist stuff about India, Indians and all that stuff you know I mean I would wonder that like even from a ideological perspective or even local political compulsions maybe other than probably immigration or something like that I mean and Indians at least in affluent western nations tend to be largely a model in model migrant community right so there's no reason to essentially take out on them but even they kind of indulge in all this so I think there are multiple things happening actually and and also you know there are a lot of narratives vars that are fought by state agencies using local sip boys everything is kind of converging and and also I think the fact that the political stability in India has been like after a long time we might potentially see a 15 years of leadership continuity which allows India to you know drive a certain kind of assertive geo geopolitical maneuverings and diplomacy and all that stuff you know that is also continues to remain a irritant like for example you know there was this blatant fraud and forgery committed by say this publication called the wire okay where they basically continued up a non-existing vaporware something which was supposed to give enormous powers to BJP to virtually mind hack everyone that fantastical software capabilities that only existed it was a completely concorded story and then in fact they even came up with a fake email from Facebook or meta and all that till the meta guys got got out but I you in spite of a story of that nature where you basically commit for fraud and forgery doesn't have any pushback and even surprisingly the Indian state was pretty lax in that in the sense that there was no consequences for that action so like maybe maybe there is a chance that this particular publication is operating on behalf of a certain state agency global I mean and building some narratives and maybe the people here are wary of that so there are multiple things happening okay so there is we have to find it I don't know like I mean I'm not like uh begin to conspiracy theories and all I think three different things are happening one is we are old Kastkari cow which will never go away that drives a certain nasty Hindu phobia and like you know stereotyping of Indians and whatever the downstream of it that is one is happening second is this new wave where like you have millions of Indians who have formed the social media who are like very careful about not taking all this narrative shit about them lying down and and see the other thing which also works for this western is that like China is like a virtual iron curtain right and Chinese would care and tan because first of all I think like 95% of the Chinese I mean English discourse it doesn't even matter to Chinese actually like unlike say India where there is a very vocal highly anglicized at least middle class you know which kind of you know is always very careful about what what is the imagery and the narrative that is created about them and they also kind of get to know and somehow we feel like very it's I would say a derastinated maybe a colonization of a mind in certain way but we kind of get triggered about what this foreign publication say is that's a problem that probably China doesn't have one is because of the language and also because of the fact that their iron curtain they virtually have a tech iron curtain they have the I mean they run their own I mean they have created their own universe right but Indians are there in the universe where rest rest of the world exists actually so that is also another problem and finding out that millions of Indians are there I think all these western publications and of course Al Jazeera I think they have different theological motivation as well actually that also gets added up so everybody is kind of you know converged on this model where they think that you know anything negative that you do about India would attract huge eyeballs and and there are a lot of local collaborators willing to work with them in creating that narrative I mean local collaborators meaning in the sense like say like they are the foot soldiers they might be committed to a different ideology but they're all used in this narrative war as well so that's the second aspect of it and third is also I think it's also part of geopolitical maneuverings by larger powers you know like like like for example you see what's happening in terms of the India, Canada, US, Canada and all that stuff you know I think like we I mean not get into that so largely these are the three different things and and you know you never it's very difficult to sometimes they are all indistinguishable from each other because they all combine to give a very vicious character to this entire discourse that's that's my sense actually so somebody has asked you this question why is the Indian media space including the non-left media space so sensationalistic in nature sometimes it feels like we're watching a daily soap this is actually a live viewer. I think I think it's a function it's a function of competition business actually I mean see like there's only limited mind space that so many players are competing so obviously there is a economic incentive to be sensational and and obviously building a enduring brand based on nuance based on credibility and all that is a like we have been doing it for a decade maybe it's a five five decade type of a project you know and and and with all the broken media economics right now I don't think so people have the luxury like like probably waiting for that long to build a institution build a brand and all that especially in the media so so I think it's it's basically the economic incentives that and also let's also not you know sound it's it's also not that the media led as well I think it's also basically catering to the audience. I'll not essentially blame it everything on the media business owners or the or you know the journalists per se I think it's also catering to the audience you know and I think like lot of this big media houses they fundamentally have very useful insights into their audience what they need what works what ticks and also that that also contributes to some of this programming and all that stuff you know so it's a combination I think it's both bottom up sometimes top down as well. So now I want to talk about something that we actually were going to talk about to begin with but now we're going to end with it so let's talk about Lok Sabha 2024 there's been so much commentary I mean on all sides of the aisle I see the people who what are loosely called supporters of the BJP they have like I don't the word I have they have lost their collective shit and like for I always say there's no people like us you know we've seen BJP lose so much that when they win it's a shock they lose so much but we grew up seeing them losing all the time and then there is this lot that I coined the term Hindutva free riders I have no I stick to my word I stick to my terminology they have been free riding this Hindutva and there have been all sorts of criticisms of BJP look some of the criticism of the BJP are absolutely fair I mean some of the policy making is just downright atrocious and and and there is no excuse for that but the point is that what do you make and but I want to start first from the left wing perspective how can people listen there are pro BJP media people in India there are pro congress media people in India there pro Samajwadi media people in India it's the only difference is usually people who are pro BJP are very open about it the rest are you know selling you the neutrality control no no I see I think like fundamentally two things actually see whenever in terms of the blokes above performance you know obviously like you said you know you are like a victim of your own phenomenal success in a certain way where your benchmarks are quite high and and obviously the rhetorical escalation also from the BJP end of I mean I think it was just a stretch target and probably it's a more a mind game where they wanted to come all the opponents with this 400 number and all that so obviously considering all that it was certainly an under-limbing performance though though I would think that the only shock for me in this particular Lok Sabha election was the magnitude of the losses that they suffered in Uttar Pradesh otherwise you know I mean you look at Bihar you look at Uttarakhand Jarkhand Madhya Pradesh Gujarat to some extent Himachal Haryana also was explainable actually considering the events Maharashtra I was in my personal prediction so I always said that I think they are up against a real you know I think the the forces that I lead against them are quite powerful in formatting the fault and so I was of course the shock was it kind of came down to 9th and I was not expecting that so but but the real unexplained under-limbing performance came largely from UP and I would say anybody who claims that it was always in the cards was basically lying and like you said there's a lot of post-mortem so otherwise broadly speaking the results especially after you're getting into the government with 10 years and all that stuff I think I would call it a fairly credible performance if you explain if you understand and fix what happened in UP having said that my sense Kushal what happened is that I think the the first problem started with what I called it as the series of assembly elections that happened in November December which I think was a semi-finals and you know against all over-limbing odds and conventional electoral you know a forecast and all that BCP actually won and did very well and almost winning the November December set of elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajthan and Sathisgar almost you know made them assume that the 2024 Lok Sabha election is a done deal and all that actually so I think like there was a fundamental mistake in the reading of the verdict I think it was not a nationalized narrative or something which happened in that assembly election each of the states had its own uniqueness which resulted in a win for BCP like for example Madhya Pradesh it was purely the welfareist blitz of Shivarath Singh Chawan that delivered them a huge verdict after what 18 years of rule continuous rule and say in Rajasthan you know it was actually a very very workman like victory you know it usually BGP wins and landslides when it returns to power in Rajasthan in a cyclical basis actually but this time it was like a very very closely fought narrow victory actually in Rajasthan okay so in fact I think the caste factors which came and hurt them little later in the Lok Sabha election had already germinated during the assembly election but I don't know whether that was done and of course Sathisgar was a bit of a surprise but I think again in Sathisgar I think the CM using enormous PR at the the sitting the incumbent Chief Minister of Congress I think used enormous media clout to create a very strong man invincibility image which I think was never the case actually so like anybody who was closely involved with studying the state they all said that actually this is just a media created myth okay and he was extremely unpopular on the ground so this three factors when each had a localized reasons but I think BGP kind of thought that there is a national undercurrent for them from all these three elections okay and then of course the Ram Mandir happened and I think the Ram Mandir kind of created a euphoria to some extent but I think that euphoria had already worked evaporated by the March and April in fact as I kind of observed UP politics for a long whenever there is this peak moments in Mandir right it kind of I mean it's very difficult to understand how it happens it always results in a kind of a mantle backlash to peak month of moments like for example in 1992 when the then BGP CM Kalyan Singh sacrificed this CM ship and went to the people for a mandate there was an alliance between Samajwari party and BSP Kanshi Ramji and Mulayam came together which was like a very unnatural social coalition at that point of time I mean Kanshi Ramji is largely the Dalits and Mulayam represented the YM combination at the time but they were able to actually despite that Ram Mandir wave they actually did very similar to this 2024 result so so you know somehow probably Hindutwa like say very triumphalist like like little over the top kind of Hindutwa sometimes producers you know kind of a mandalized backlash I would put actually and see and and anyway PGP skating on very thin nice and yuki and I mean it's a real shocker that they were they managed to dominate in four continuous election cycles which is quite unprecedented given the nature of the caste coalitions and the the social churns that keep happening in yuki okay so so you know I think uh yuki was a huge surprise otherwise I think let's say that one that 60 that they had predicted which was the conventional sephological prediction for yuki right I mean they're majority once again it's like a 272 kind of a verdict okay so so my my sense is that one of the problems for a ideological see lot of this very voice before is based of a PGP or sung and all that they all and and this is true of any ideological party is that whenever there is a setback I mean an or a defeat in a larger concept they always say that the the the very they always stick to only one analysis saying that there was no commitment to the ideology we straight from the ideology they can't have any other deep thinking in analyzing and introspecting on why it could have failed and again I think the real danger would be to think that this is an ideological defeat for ideology in fact I would say that there might have been a slight excess on the ideological front in the last term of Modi government actually so I think the reasons are more economic in the sense that I mean we the government has been delivering exemplary macro economic growth I think you know one of the very few countries that navigated the pandemic with very you know fiscal concert conservatism going to an election with the conservatism is a brave call but I think somewhere down the line they missed the trick by not going for a signature dick bang welfare scheme in the budget essentially because sometimes you know the opponent decides the weapon that you have to use in the election you know you can have a fundamental conviction about you know physical conservatism no freebies and all and it's it's it's and also you know it's it's very it's not a really good idea to be too sanctimonious about this entire freebie versus physical conservatism kind of a debate you know like like I mean I would so I think like they just just probably overlooked that part of it and in UP right what is what happened is that in 2017 that bank account LPG that created that Modi voter 2019 was of course all the the Pulvama effect plus all that stuff 2022 was that ration plus fashion like your law law and order plus your uh ration and now I think all those blowhanging floats have been done and that welfare is which is already gone and now people are like okay what is there in the bank account or you know Mandir is built free also there's this kind of thing about among the Hindu mindset is that right like they always feel guilty after achieving something that they have civilized nationally and for like say okay they have all fought for the temple now okay temple has been built does that mean that everybody would achieve economically and all those kind of that I think I think this pressure kishore kind of you know though put this very nicely that around 20-25 percent are the socialist Hindus and another 15 percent is this Gandhi and Hindus right like who perpetually you know I mean we'll not we'll discuss about this phenomenon of Gandhi and Hindus later so those kind of sections of Hindus there is always a backlash that can happen I mean and this is not like a big backlash you know like Modi's enormous popularity and all that and of course dentate at the margins but I think he had so much political capital and credibility that they could withstand uh potentially uh you know uh uh 2004 readings okay so so I sincerely hope that you know the introspection around the election results are more in terms of uh you know how to probably um uh economics rather than you know any anything more related to the culture is my meaning and and how you can do much more intelligent welfare and let me very honest that all that um uh like I for instance know that BGP lost in Karnataka only because Congress unleashed the guarantee scheme there actually right then the in the assembly elections so uh so uh I think like that is one and the second thing uh kusha which I think is a very something that has really happened is that there is a very uh interesting insight that I want to give which which is uh so I three or four days before the election right I I'm a part of a lot of groups where uh I mean I'm almost like just to beat my own trumpet I'm almost like a clairvoyant in predicting elections in private uh WhatsApp groups okay and and uh somebody reached out to me and uh you know asked me what you would think would be the final number I just told whatever and I said that unless there is a nasty surprise in UP this is going to be the number that we get actually and somehow why I added this nasty surprise in UP is that like just like five six days back a very uh well-known uh gentleman I would not like to uh kind of name him uh he had traveled across UP and uh you think he even went to Varanasi and then uh he took that boat ride and then that whoever is the boatman was like one Qatar Hindu Thwavadhi guy he said Moteji no one else and all that stuff but of course he could sense that there was a bit of um what do you call uh bad uh undercurrent because clues and you know I think the Kashi's modernity is a problematic uh issue for the BJP actually plus he was the my contact was also quite surprised that like the boatman's younger kid was actually watching this video of whatever the Dhruv Rathi or I have not seen any of his videos but he said and then he was also saying that some three four people during the trip he noticed them watching the video he said that like maybe there is something that we have picked up that uh we have not picked up that can that that has happened that is happening so I think uh one thing that where BJP has lost out uh is in terms of the digital video space uh what has happened is that uh the main lot of these individual branded journalists in the from the mainstream media right who are like so ideologically rabid and uh you know who owe it to the congress system uh because of the ownership changes in various channels and all that they are all on the road actually but they have all like 20, 25 years of uh television experience they are pre-sold brands and familiarity hey they have all become individual uh brands uh in youtube they have all started their own channels and all and I think like that propaganda blitz is also kind of hacked people's mind to some extent I would say actually so I think the complete digital space was uh seeded uh in this election I would I would say that that also played a significant role and I think also BJP's own communication strategy seemed a little uh unimaginative and uh you know they were not and of course they have the handicap of being the ruling establishment as well I think like in the last six to uh twelve months uh I think the on the narrative they were on the back foot every time actually even despite winning the state assembly election on the narrative front they were all this three two semics can we have to understand that whenever the party in opposition they will be more energized and they will be more uh uh you know charged up to uh you know and it's been like what 10 years they were out of power so obviously there will be a lot of energy on the other side which can't be matched by uh uh and by definition ruling parties would have to make uh tough decisions and which would hurt one constituency or other and uh you know all that stuff is there and and I think like 10 years there's a long time in a country in a polarized in a such a fractious country like India where you will definitely generate some degree of anti-incomeness there is no escaping that fact actually you know and and and if it is a state assembly you can do a lot of things by switching from one social group to another give very focused freebies in a particular region changed the outcome but in a natural election you know like there are 30 different states uh UTs and all where we different dynamics are there unless you have a very overwhelming nationalist uh overwhelming uniform narrative right it's very difficult to shape election results actually and I think in UP probably it became a very seed by seed cast coalition centric kind of an election where BJP typically is at its vulnerable best okay so I would say that one is like probably uh lack of big bang welfare scheme in the run up to the 2024 election plus you know their communication uh strategy I think uh and and I think of course I mean you the opponents also up their game which which is I think the nature of the democracy actually so those things are always a given and you have to have all this but I think UP is where the the the like you would have really kind of you know uh won it so convincingly the third term where I think they lost it up so hopefully uh let's see how this shapes up moving forward yeah just two three minor disagreements I don't agree on the variety but or any youtuber bit is because the numbers don't bear it up is the thing is that when you have uh consumption patterns of digital videos they are far more in urban India compared to rural India and uh Mumbai being the exception BJP swift pretty much swept urban India no no urban India urban India I think the one of the biggest difference between 2004 and 2024 it's that urban India solidly like Hyderabad Bangalore in fact Bangalore I think is probably the even we typically they rule lose in Bangalore rural even Bangalore result was one the same your Hyderabad and above Mumbai it was atrocious uh seat distribution I mean candidate selection was atrocious let me be honest with you I think the the the the it was also pretty blatant uh anti I mean the the antigujirathi kind of I mean it was not even a toggle dog whistle I think they were openly doing that and and I think what also helped is that in specific assembly constituencies the social combination helped them get such leads that even though endated very well in the rest of the assembly seats like say if there was a Muslim plus some high degree of Marathi polarization in a particular seat right they took so much lead and went out of the six segments that's what that is not sustainable persona they cannot sustain I agree that they cannot eventually listen what what has happened now is uh after the results have come that a lot of Marathi's who must have voted in anger now are having buyers reports what have we done because and and uh Shinde Sena in fact has voted you know punched wave above his weight I mean look at this it's insane see also uh no Kushal I think there is one thing that we underestimate about the underestimate in the sense no I think one thing about this Indian hotel mindset I mean nobody knows what goes in that mind I'm just predicting is that like somehow when the when they kind of find that the leader is like all all all all all conquering powerful that invincibility kind of a thing and quote unquote that arrogant kind of a thing they for no rhyme or reason despite the fact that everything goes well or everything is fine they just want to kind of send that lesson I don't know what is the psychology that but that's the beauty of democracy right that democracy so I don't I don't I don't agree with it actually that's uh that's the democracy I mean I don't have any reason to I'm not ever going to run for any political uh office so I don't need to be very uh I don't need to say the voice of the people is the voice of the god or something like that I can adopt a very patronizing tone also but I'm just saying that you know whatever reason they want to do that I mean and of course I think it didn't happen in urban India because obviously they know the the alternative is pure economic evil and the kind of things that they did rural may it kind of might have worked this kind of uh tendency you know and and also I think that that when when you have the see and also this kind of it almost seems like they have voted for not Modi the person it's more like a mandate for Modi as the prime minister actually that's how I kind of see that Modi as the person of Modi is not got that unambiguous endorsement but that's an endorsement of him to continue as a prime minister so I think that's the key and I think he's not been in that kind of a space before so I think and I mean I'm sure necessary corrections can be done but but I think that has also happened that when that aura happens right there is always this countervailing influence in Indian democratic system I I I don't know for what good joy but it always happens and then they just want to kind of quote unquote teach a lesson you know that's it's not like you're teaching a lesson for some brazenly corrupt leader or something like that you are teaching a lesson because you don't like a certain age the ticks actually I mean which is or it's not like a revolt against the family rule or you know corruption or maybe maybe like they're just bored oh I mean any brand right has to reinvent itself even the most enduring brands and that's how the people right that's on the prime minister and mr. Narendra Modi to read yeah and also I think this entire long election excess exposure and all that stuff and also Modi's own style where I think like he does this ban-storming style of election campaigning and then once the elections are over his appearances are very far and few between chosen far and few between other than the monkey but where it's more his voice not his face yeah so I think the the the that also is like probably is the only ubiquitous during election and then he's not there I think all those kind of things and I think I think like enduring bands are enduring because they have re-invented themselves periodically right actually all those all those important considerations are definitely there and and long election and you know the heat and and I think like by April they had already the momentum started dissipating a bit I think that the euphoria of the assembly election went and then the UT means for either arm and you know what but you have to answer the fact that even when people voted for the national election they voted for four assembly elections and they they voted in a completely different way there so it's so so weird like voters have had the intelligence to choose x here and the intelligence or two right there correct correct and also I think this more than like say I think like UP maybe they can recover because one is by my larger concern in terms of from a more from macro perspective and from like say a volition of the nation I mean I'm like as political as it can get I'm not apolitical I am not like a very neutral observer but generally as a person who loves this country one aspect which is very disturbing in the which will kind of emerge out of this election and which could be a fault line that might continue to fester and also be ignited moving forward is the emergence of the caste factor no I mean I'm not like that kind of person who says that elections are never fought on caste and India is a caste player we have to move towards I mean I'm not like into that urban privileged view and all that stuff but this time I think like there's been a bit of regression in some of the states where it almost became like a national election completely reduced in some pockets and definitely not mercifully everywhere into a you know the like say for example eastern radstan I mean a lot of radstan like at least 10-12 seats it was it was like you are in this caste and you're voting for this party was almost becoming so so predictable parts of faryana I would say you know it's it's like you know you're this caste and you vote for this party that level of I mean you could always say that about muslims being voting for the party which is best place to defeat bgb that was one cardinal rule otherwise most communities in india are fairly well distributed across political parties actually but I think that has kind of changed a bit so which might kind of lead to some kind of issues and you know the caste consensus and whatever I think like I think opposition has picked up a template where they can kind of counter it and bgb is generally weak when when you know when when caste this is actualist I mean in the sense they have been very smart over the years last ten years definitely they have brought in their social coalition groups and all that but still but still if the election becomes purely about caste coalition and caste arithmetic then I think they're always on the back foot actually so that's what we need to watch one of the trends out of this election yeah so before we wrap up I want to talk about the future of Indian politics if caste and mandalism both are back in a major way and the entire success story of bgbp has always been when the Hindu Hindu electorate votes above its caste the only time the bgbp comes to power is when Hindus vote beyond their caste they come together for a larger narrative so so what is the future of India as a country if Hindus regress back to caste no no I think essentially the the linkage to that broader see like like a state like UP right both caste consciousness and Hindu consciousness always exist together okay it's the even the even the linkage with the broader Hindu coalition always is moderated through the caste caste is a very key influencing and shaping factor but let's say that if the proportion of caste consciousness become say 70% and your Hinduness is 30% then they are in serious trouble like say even 50 50 40 60 let's not like completely say that Hindu consciousness is purely only after your caste consciousness is erased that doesn't happen I mean that can be an idle state but it happens in a very I think fun the enhancing caste consciousness is relays it's not absolutely racial that never happens human beings are tribal species but it becomes a secondary factor not a prime impact correct I think this time UP kind of flipped to some extent so that's the verdict that's happened so basically it's back to the brass jacks you got to work with social groups and also I think one way of addressing that's why I made I also set this point Krishna is that I think like at some point of time you have to start addressing them as individual economic rational agents rather than looking at this group based models of engagement with voters thinking that you know like you divide the pie of let's say there is a OB omnibus OPC quota in a state and then you divide it into sub quota you bring in that MBC quota and all that all that I think is going to have diminishing marginal returns so I think maybe a better idea would be to move on more intelligent targeted welfare at an individual level you know you are sitting on whole lot of micro details about the citizens of the country in terms of the bank account spends about other you have the jam Trinity already so I think like better targeting welfare some more interesting direct cash transfer which kind of you know more I think the the the there is definitely a element of there is no complete recovery that has happened from COVID okay and and also you know the one other orienting is about like the we've produced the tertiary education is also though it's a very good that the tertiary education and enrollment has gone up north and all that stuff I think like the sarkari knockery mindset is also another big issue actually so like like like for example a lot of people say that say in UP to some extent agnivir and they have almost didn't do any massive hiring for sarkari knockery is actually they have put it on hold for like ages together okay all that is also hurt them apparently so my thing is that I think like it has to be I think more intelligent economics I mean I think I mean I'm being I'm oversimplifying but I understand that that is the only way to address this past frictions and you know and good thing is that eventually urban like you said you know BJP swept open India most of urban India except Mumbai which is very explainable due to some local reasons urbanization is generally neutralizes caste actually because once people move to urban that typically they are you know aspirations and what they vote on becomes dramatically different it becomes on say road you know better use of taxes you know broadly on issues which are much more than their tribal identity right actually so one good trend for BJP is that increasing urbanization which will kind of you know get in more people to quote on a quote unquote a nationalist rather than a very social identity kind of a thing so all those things I think they should work till that time so maybe once it becomes like say in Gujarat for example I think 70 of those 160 odd seats are like so urbanized that like I think like even in the lowest performance of BJP in recent time when they won 94 still won a majority I think they won 62 out of the 70 seats in urban Gujarat right that was like a election after GSC after party day agitation after OBC agitation I think that was a rural distress everything they won was 62 out of 70 seats in urban Gujarat that they swept so I think urbanization is something that they should eventually hope for we'll take care of a lot of this so that's my overall sense okay so for me I'll just say this as a last comment I think it's very hard to pinpoint what specific reasons have caused X or Y or Z a lot of times until and unless you look at booth wise data and analyzing booth wise data takes forever they're at best the BJP also will find out after a year or so actually Kushal just that's the point that they made this is one election where in few pockets of India know it's almost like your social group became a parameter of your voting preference and a lot of parts of definitely Rajasthan many parts of Haryana few pockets of UP so that's yeah I agree with you I mean see everything all of us are just scratching at some superficial surface level agreements and there are different moving parts and all and moment do you know why the water oaths the way that you are I think no political party will ever lose the election rate if they know that actually so it's a it's a you know very complex to decipher your problem yeah I mean nobody knew why they got such less numbers in Gujarat in 2017 nobody knew why they got such high numbers five years later in 2022 what people think nobody understands they just go with the flow like I'll give you an example there has to be a textile entrepreneur you know I would take my fabric to the customer who's like how do you like the finish he's like Majani I am like I did not enjoy it as I define and not did not enjoy it as the bus Majani I I mean I don't know why people behave the way they say I'm agnostic but I do understand that Modi 3.0 will definitely what you're saying is going to happen they're going to be more targeted welfareism like it or not I'm just worried about the fiscal health of the economy but hey what the hell if that's what it takes to win elections every government is going to do that and BJP is no exception to that and people like me will go on vining and criticizing the BJP for it they are not going to listen to me they're going to go for fiscal target they're going to disturb the fiscal discipline that they did listen you have to appreciate the prime minister that he did not do anything before the election he did not give any swaps when he still went to the election so he clearly now he's not going to do that he's going to give you yet to get to yell at to yell at I hope no but I hope they do it but I think somehow there is a certain part of BJP's ideology that doesn't there's always this reluctance to go like completely ballistic on that but I hope that they overcome that actually I genuinely want I mean think that they should do this this time yeah so so let's see but Prasana man it was so nice to talk to you finally you want to come on the podcast and hopefully this is not the last time no no I think like I'll make a habit of it and I just enjoyed this conversation Kushal and apologies I think there was a bit of a technical lag in the middle but nevertheless you know great host gave me all the you know time to share my worldview and sometimes if I was incoherent because I was this conscious of the time but I'm hoping to participate more often not thank you so much thank you thanks for coming so ladies and gentlemen before we wrap up once again in the description of the podcast I have Prasana's X handle no Twitter handle also I would urge all of you to go check swaraje.com out swaraje is a very important portal as far as the scheme of things in the non-left space is concerned I've always said whenever people ask me how do we support any I always say subscribe to suraje I still stick to that I've been one of their first subscribers when they came up with a publication years ago I was one of the first subscribers I consistently gift swaraje magazine subscriptions to people I would encourage all of you to go and support them and before we wrap up I want to 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