(upbeat music) - Hello everybody and welcome to the tip of the iceberg podcast, "Your Home" for Pittsburgh, Penguins, News and Analysis. You can find us on YouTube at tip of the iceberg or anywhere you get your podcast from, we got a great show for you guys today. I'm your host, Nick Belsky, joined as always by Nick Horwatt and the Penguins. They continue to trickle out prospect news as we have the latest update on what their fall is going to look like. And we'll talk about that in the opening segment. One Penguins Insider provided an update on Sydney's Crosby's contract, which we're definitely gonna talk about. And then we'll play a little bit of fact or fiction to close out this episode. Let's get started. And let's start things off with the return of the Penguins organization to the annual Prospects Challenge up in Buffalo, New York. They announced that yesterday they'd be participating in the Prospects Challenge. They'll play three games between September 13th and 16th against the prospects from the Boston Bruins, the Ottawa Senators and the Buffalo Sabres. Now, technically, the Penguins won this tournament last year because they went two-in-one, had the best gold differential. So technically, they're the defending champs going into the Prospects Challenge. But this is just overall a very fun event where you finally get your eyes on some real hockey, you get your eyes on some of these prospects that we've been talking about all summer long. And really, you get the chance to see some of these guys in a Penguins uniform in a game setting for the first time. Last year, it was Braden Jaeger and Joel Blunkfist as well. This year, there's gonna be a bevy of different names that you'll see for the first time in a Penguins uniform. Are you excited that they're heading back to Buffalo because this is something that before last year, they missed a couple years up. But I'm happy that they're going back for a second consecutive year this time. - Yeah, I think COVID played a hand to play a role in them being involved. 'Cause I think the year before they played a game, I think they played one game in it before. If I'm not mistaken, and then obviously they played the three last year and then had a pretty good run and do a large part to do a large part to guys like Sam Poolan and Joel Blunkfist who both of which won't be around this year, which should speak highly of them and what they've been able to accomplish pretty quickly out of graduating from the term of prospect for Sam Poolan at least. We'll see how he does at the NHL level. If he gets there, a lot of work to be done, but it's always fun to be back. It's always the first taste of NHL hockey in a way because it kind of bleeds right into, or at least it did last year, bleeds right into training camp for the Penguins. They're the only team so far that haven't announced a full roster for this, or at least full as names. Obviously, things can't change. There's like a month and a half still to go before it happens. But you know, there's already some names and highly regarded prospects in this Penguins system to look forward to taking the ice and participating with. I think you put it best last year. They're playing with their peers. These are a bunch of guys that they will be playing with down the line in the league. So that's an important side to see. Start sizing up your opponents for your career essentially. - Yeah, let's talk a little bit about that roster that the Penguins put out yesterday. Who on that roster are you most excited to see? And like you mentioned, about six weeks still, but who are you most excited to see when they take the ice up in Buffalo? - You know, looking up and down, there's plenty of names that everyone should be curious about. Brandon Yeager's going to stick out and be the obvious choice, but you know, because of the pedigree he's bringing, he's their most recent first round pick. He just signed his ELC and might fight for an NHL roster spot. We'll talk about him at length eventually, but other than that, maybe Pahnomara of getting a chance, really Koivoon and getting his chance. I mean, throw a dart. It's going to be a name that you're going to be interested in seeing. I mean, even Tristan Brows coming off of college and his career there. Owen Pickering, I think, might stick out the most for me because I'm not mistaken. He was hurt for camp last year. - Yeah, he's been hurt for camp both years since he got drafted. - Yes, I just, I don't remember if he played last year in the Storm and Myrna. - Okay, so then that's going to be a name right there because Buddy hasn't played really at all in a Penguins uniform. Just a ton of practices and trainings. It's going to be good to see him in a couple of Wilkesbury games, I guess. But it will be important to see him play at something like this, if he's able to stay healthy. And I'm going to go with my pick of Owen Pickering then just because he needs to start making that noise and making that progression into an NHL player. - Yeah, the obvious answer for me is outside of Braden Yeager, which Yeager has the same exact expectations going into this as he had going into last year, which it was be the best player on the ice, be visibly the best player on the ice 'cause that's what the Penguins are counting on you to do. Not only for the Penguin side of things, but the other side of things. And outside of maybe Zach Benson, Braden Yeager was the best player in that tournament last year. So do that again. Sergei Murschov, I talked about yesterday, him signing his contract officially coming over to North America this season. Blunkfuss put himself on the map last year with this tournament and it kind of set the tone for the season he went on to have. I'd like to see Murschov do that, but the three names that I'm really keeping an eye on, because they're three names that we know a little bit about, but I'm curious to see what they're able to do or the three forward AHL signings that they made earlier this offseason. Atley Calvert, excuse me, Gabe Klassen and Jack Beck. They were all signed the same day. They all have high offensive upside. They're all going to likely start at the AHL level. One or two of them might start at the ECHL level if it gets a little too crowded down there in Wilkes-Barre, but I'm excited to see what these three have in store because when you're talking about the situation, the penguins are currently in. Yes, it is nice that they have Braden Yeager coming down the pike. It's nice that they brought in Pawnomarev and Koivunin and they added Harrison Brunick and Tanner Howe and they have Owen Pickering. They're getting the top end of their prospect pool to be something worth looking out for. If you want to turn this ship around, you're going to have to hit on some of these free agent signings, guys like Atley Calvert, guys like Gabe Klassen. So I'm excited to see how they're able to perform. Calvert, they probably purposely kept him separated from Yeager at development camp. I'm wondering if they're going to end up putting them on the same line once you get out to prospect challenge and see really if they try to separate him, see what he's worth, or if they say, hey, this has worked before, we're going to help you get your feet underneath you with the organization by playing you with somebody that you're very fond of and very not fond of, but very familiar with as well. So I'm watching out for those three AHL signings, especially in that prospect's challenge because once camp starts and once you're up to what do they typically invite? 50, 60 players to NHL training camp. Some of these guys might get lost in the shuffle. They might not get as many opportunities. The prospect's challenges were really going to get a chance to see them shine before the season begins in October. - Yeah, it's going to be that, like I said, that sort of throw a dart is going to be an interesting name to watch because not only will they have to perform pretty well at this prospect's challenge, but some of them and a couple of key names that we've already discussed are probably going to have an invite to training camp and then we'll get pre-season time as well. It's not like they're, it's not like for most of these guys that their days are done after this prospect challenge are going back to the O or their junior teams. There's going to be plenty of opportunity for them to continue to impress the penguins' brass. And I mean, yeah, we've already listed a bunch of names, but like I said, you're going to want to see pretty much everyone that's participating because they're going to end up continuing on into the next month after the prospect's challenge into camp and to pre-season games. I mean, Isaac Belova is going to get another shot in everything. Taylor Goatea, him and Belova both did really well in the ECHL with the Nailers last season. I mean, Taylor Goatea was like goalie of the year essentially. - Yeah. - And he's a top prospect name too for the penguins. Who knows if he starts in Wilkes-Barrion what his future holds because now it's getting crowded with Mirashev coming over. I mean, the penguins have future and goal tending, but who knows what the rest of the future holds? And tell you what, the future holds a lot of these guys' names. We'll see how it all goes. We'll see how it all, you know, transpires. But like I said, throw a dart. That's a player you want to keep an eye on. - Yeah, for the first time in, well, last year was very interesting, but I looked at that roster yesterday when it came out and I was like, there's really not many misses here. There's guys that are very interesting. Cooper Foster is another name that everybody was talking about last year during prospect's challenge. So can he continue to do that this year and kind of build off of the momentum that he kicked up last year? It's going to be fun. It's still six weeks away. So I'm sure we're going to probably preview it again once it comes around, gets a little bit closer. But, you know, again, that is September 13th, 14th, and 16th, they're off on the 15th. They'll take on Boston, Ottawa, and Buffalo in that order. So it'll be fun to watch and again, the biggest name we mentioned, Braden Yeager. And Yeager is a guy that, listen, every player, when they're drafted, say, yeah, my goal, make the NHL team this year, because that is everybody's goal, that is everybody's dream is, hey, I want to make my NHL debut. I want to be part of the NHL roster. Braden Yeager is putting in work. Not to say that anybody else isn't, but you look at what he's done this offseason. He might have had four weeks where he's not in an actual organized activity this offseason because he had the long Memorial Cup run all the way to the end. He then went, after a couple of weeks, the Penguins development camp, which I think was only like two weeks after that, he signs his contract last week, which is something that you've been pounding the table for. Now he's at Team Canada's camp for this National Summer Showcase, and now he's also going to be on the Prospects Challenge roster in six weeks. So he's really making sure that he gets every opportunity possible to work on his game, to play with some of the best that he can at that moment in time. Right now he's with the best that, you know, Canada has to offer when it comes to junior teams. I'm excited to see how he can build on that through the offseason because in the NFL, the saying is, "Hey, from year one to year two, rookie year to second year is the biggest jump because now you know what you need to work on, now you're not as worried about getting through the draft process, you know where you're at, they've told you what they expect of you." It seems like that's kind of translating for Braden Yeager going into his second year after being drafted by the Penguins. I'm intrigued to see because he's saying he wants to make the team. The door is open. I'm not going to say it's wide open. I'm going to say the door is open for Braden Yeager. It's a long shot still, but the fact that he's putting in all this work makes me very excited to see what he's able to do once he shows up to Prospects Challenge and of course to training camp right after that. - He's certainly not taking cottage season, is he? - No, he's not. - He's putting in that work. He's putting in every ounce of effort that he can to put his name in some pretty high standing. Obviously he's already the top prospect in the Penguin system, but the Penguin system continues to be, I don't want to say disrespected, but ranked lower than maybe it should be. He's going to be a name that needs to show up to maybe elevate everyone else around him in that Prospects system. And so far he's putting in the work to do that and getting him in front of some more, getting him in front of some more cameras in front of some more higher ups than it should continue to raise that sort of number and it's his Prospect pipeline to, it's his pipeline. It is his pipeline. That's if there's one way to look at it. There's interesting things that could be happening with the future of the core here and who knows if the torch is getting passed to a guy like Yeager. He's not to that pedigree yet, but maybe could work his way there. - Yeah, right now a lot of people are projecting him to be second line center at the NHL level. Obviously going into last year, that projection was lower. He can continue to grow. He can continue to push past what everybody's expectations are and maybe he can grow into that eventual first line center. Again, who knows, development is very difficult to nail down. He certainly has plenty of the tools and I mentioned that he's looking to make the NHL roster. He was speaking with Wes Crosby of NHL.com and this is the exact quote that he had, quote, "I think I can be ready to play. I want to come to main camp with the mentality that I'm going to make the team and be comfortable with working my hardest and battling against some of the best players on the team, just coming in with the mindset that I want to make the team." So with that, before we move over and talk a little bit about Crosby, one of the best players that'll be on the team, come training camp, what percentage chance as of right now would you give Brayden Yeager? Even if it's just the nine game sample size before they slide his contract back to the NHL, what percent chance do you have him making the NHL roster out of camp? - Like a 25 to 30. It's not going to be super high because they don't want to burn those. They don't want to burn those games. They don't want to burn an ELC year, which again, if you could slide it out after nine games, no big deal, no harm, no foul, but the roster just seems fairly stacked as it is. And whenever I say stacked, I just mean NHL talent wisely. It's proven NHL talent. It has proven names that are going to bring their game and you know what you're going to get from them. It's not a 19 year old who's making his NHL debut and maybe falling apart. No, not expected to fall apart, but after 15 or so after you've already committed to a year, now what? You've lost that year, he's not going to perform. It's, there's a lot to still take in because there's a learning curve with that sort of jump. So I think it would still be low, but it wouldn't shock me. Yeah, the Penguins have one of, as you mentioned, one of the ranked worst prospect pools in the NHL and he is far and away their top prospect. There's going to be some semblance of kid gloves that they use with him and his contract status and his years. So I'm going to put it right around where you said, my thought was 30%. So I think you hit the nail right on the head with that one. Again, the door is open there for him. I think he has the talent to do it. And I think that the roadblocks in front of them that you mentioned, guys like, you know, Kevin Hayes, guys like Lars Eller, I feel like if he made the team, it would have to be moving over to wing to start the year. But again, that's just simply because of the guys who are down the center ice position. It seems like the Penguins are set. And then you're battling with, you know, Koivunans of the world who maybe if you show out better than them, they say, all right, well, he can start in the AHL, worst comes to worst, Koivunan can get a shot later in the season. But realistically, you're battling with guys like Anthony Beauvilla. Blake Lozat, who I like. But at the same time, again, I would like in Braden Yeager if he can come out and be that good again. This is all dependent upon if he comes out and he just shows out in training camp, I could see him maybe getting an opportunity. But again, there's a lot of those guys that you have to surpass. So, you know, 70% chance that he doesn't make the team and they just send him back to Moose Jaw for that last year. 30% chance that he blows people away just because I think that's how good he is. And honestly, I'm encouraged by the amount of work that he is putting in at very high profile events, right? Memorial Cup, highest profile event you can get in the OHL. Team Canada Summer Showcase, highest profile event he could have at this moment in time. Prospect's challenge, you know, having him come back for everything is huge. So, I have a lot of hope for Braden Yeager and I'm interested to see how he builds off of a great year in his year one after being drafted by the Penguins. [Music] Now, let's move over and talk about the biggest news of the offseason, the biggest story of the offseason, which continues to get small chapters added on to it. Rob Rossi of the Athletic put out a Penguins mailbag, which is a little different for Rob. Thank him for giving us that in the Dead Season before cottage season. Officially began today on August 1st. He made sure to drop that on July 31st. And the main question on everyone's mind, what's going on with Sydney Crosby? Now, Rossi answered that by first backing his previous update, saying the Penguins are, quote, closing in on that extension. And it's basically a foregone conclusion of that it's happening, just a matter of when it's happening. And he added this, quote, "I made a few calls to follow up and the only real news, perhaps another subjective term, is that all parties Crosby and his agent, Pat Pazan, as well as Penguins General Manager Kyle Dubas, were comfortable enough with where the contract negotiations stood that everybody felt comfortable going about summer plans, such as taking holidays and enjoying a bit of downtime." When do you hear that, or what? What is your initial reaction? What have the Penguins been doing the last few months, or a few weeks already, anyway? I mean, signing guys to ELCs. My real thing is, if it is this set in stone, if there are no roadblocks, if there are no problems or negotiation issues in the way, why then do the thing? Who's, why are we so worried about putting it? Like, why do we have to put it off? I get why, and I understand most of it. But if it's a foregone conclusion that it's going to happen, like, if all parties are in agreement on term, money, letting it definitely happen, just get it done and then go on vacation, have celebratory vacation, I don't. It's, like I said, there is no need to worry. He said there's no need to worry until Puck drop of the season, which he's right, that's definitely correct. But if it's this set of a foregone conclusion, like, he seems to keep saying it is, then why not? Then what's the hold up? What are we waiting for then? That's kind of the question I have, that's my first reaction to it. If it's, like I said, I'm not worried, there is, it is pretty set in stone that it's going to happen, just why not pull the trigger? If you're that set on it. Here's my full thoughts on this. One, the penguins are in a position where right now ticket sales are of mass importance. So you want to do everything you can to ensure that you have as much excitement for the season as possible. The closer you have a Crosby extension to the start of the season, the more excitement you're going to be able to build right before the season begins. And secondly, in order to do that and to create the most excitement out of something that everybody already expects to happen, Crosby's got to be in person. Right, there has to be the announcement of him signing with a picture of him signing in cranberry. Crosby was in town during prospect development camp, and that is when this initial report from Rossi came out that they're closing in. The report came out on July 8th. Prospect camp was 10th or 6th to 10th. Crosby, as we all know, was on the ice in cranberry practicing with Brian Dumelen and Riley Smith during that time. So he was in town for that. That's probably when those negotiations happened. That's probably when this report of everybody felt it was close enough that, "Hey, we can go on with our plans." And Crosby said, "Probably, I have plans. I'm going to leave town again after getting some of this work in." So to me, that's just basically saying, "Hey, we're near the finish line, but we really don't need to do this." Because that was also still close to the opening of free agency. So if everything rings true that Rossi is saying, and I typically tend to trust Rob Rossi on his reporting, then Crosby said, "I'll be patient. You handle your business, Kyle." It's the first week after free agency, Kyle's probably still handling business and still talking to Crosby and his agent. And then they say, "All right, well, we're almost there, but Sid wants to go on vacation, or Pat wants to go on vacation, fine. Move it over and we'll sign it when you come back into town." To me, that's what it is. Is there waiting for Crosby to be back into town to officially sign it, to drum up as much excitement as humanly possible? Or, as Rossi put it, and as everybody likes to mention it, Sidney Crosby's birthday is in a week, it is very important day to Sidney Crosby. So there's a chance he signs there. If it doesn't happen on his birthday, I'm going to tell you it's not going to happen until mid-September, in my eyes, because it's not going to be until Crosby comes back into town. I would still kind of fall on the idea of why not, if you have it that set and still why not do it. And also, you don't need him in town, you don't need the photo of him. It's all about optics. And right now, this is a team that is refusing to say they're rebuilding because they want people to still come into the arena. And the big reason for that is Crosby. So why not make it this big grand penguin for life celebration with all of the social media content that you could possibly drum up with him in town. The same way you did it when Carlson was traded, and he immediately came over and you had all that content come out to get people excited in August. This might happen late August, early September, like I mentioned, whenever Crosby comes back into camp. That's why I think they wait until it's in town, because it's all about optics, it's all about drumming up excitement. And how exciting is it of him sitting on his dock in Nova Scotia saying, yeah, I'm a penguin for life. And that's the only thing you get. Him in the building, signing his contract, stating that he is going to be a penguin for life, even though we all know that. I think that's what they're waiting on. And I think it's better and it has more of an effect if he's in person to do that. Well, let me throw this back at you. They didn't do that with Malkin Orlatan, both of them. They were, it's not though. That's the thing because it was the team that year. Where was the team coming off of a year where they should have won a playoff series against the Rangers? Where are they at now? They've missed two consecutive playoffs and everybody knows they are not a favorite to be a playoff team going into this season. Because here's part of it. So because the commitment to those two also was penguins for life. The commitment to Crosby has even since then been penguin for life. If that is the foregone conclusion, then you don't need all the pomp and circumstance. And the way I was going to try and tie it back into your ticket sales thing, tickets went on sale the other day. Tickets are on sale right now. You can do it because here's the thing. I'm just kind of just trying to crystal ball it a little bit and predict that when he does sign, because it's going to happen, it's just going to be a press release. There might be a Zoom call press conference with Sid. That might be it. And unless it happens, obviously unless it happens closer to, that's if it happens in August. If it happens closer, training camp and preseason or the regular season, everyone will be there in person. It'll happen there. Or at least questions will happen in a scrum, however it goes. But plus, I get that there's a lot of patience that can be had because it's not like he's a free agent. It's not like he's a free agent. He's got that year left already anyway. He will be on the penguins at least to next season. So the ticket sales thing doesn't matter. You should be able to sell it on. He's here anyway by tickets. But I just don't foresee, especially because in the Malkin and the tank situation, they were free agents. They were upcoming free agents. And they still didn't do the whole come into town. Do a quick video thing. It was E-Sign will make the release, give us a statement, boom, on our way. Help said it was Ron Hexdall doing it. I was about to say, I'll give you three main differences. And that is number one. It is Ron Hexdall. It was Ron Hexdall and Brian Berks Pittsburgh Penguins. There was no pomp. There was no circumstance. There was no anything with those two. Reason number two is because of what I mentioned earlier. This, where is the team at right now? Coming out of that year, they were still on their playoff consistent postseason run. They should have beaten the New York Rangers. There was thought that this team was going to be better, even though in that off season, we saw how everything turned out. Because after those contracts were signed, the trades were made that were absolutely horrendous to reshuffle the defense. And three, I understand that it is the big three. But there is a bona fide difference between Chris Latang, Evgeny Malkin. Big gap, Sydney Crosby. We're talking about a couple penguins legends, Evgeny Malkin, a top 20 player of all time. Crosby is on Mount Rushmore. They've sculpted his face. Those are three main differences. And I think this is a different era. This is a team that is in need of different marketing now that it was two years ago. And Crosby is a different player that whenever you say, "Hey, he is a penguin for life." That means more. And I do think that you mentioned, "Hey, it could be a scrum." This is probably not going out of limb. I think there is a bona fide press conference whenever this happens. I think Crosby takes the podium, followed, following up, Kyle Dubas following up. Maybe somebody from FSG, I don't know. Their involvement is always touchy. But definitely following up, Kyle Dubas, I think Mike Sullivan will be up at the podium, probably not taking questions, but he'll be there. And I think the media will get the opportunity to ask big questions. Because I think that's how big of a deal they're going to try to turn this into. Again, my first thought is, it might happen on Sid's birthday. If it doesn't happen on Sid's birthday, you're getting all of this. And it's happening in September. Then, because my, again, rebuttal is, if it's that set in stone, if there is no, if there are clean, no issues with contract negotiations, you're good to go. We have the number, the dollar amount, and all the details set. Just maybe you could have done it a few weeks ago. Before everyone committed to vacations, before everyone did this, that, the other. I don't know, I think, because whenever we were discussing this extension during the season, it was, it's happened in July 1st, there's no question about it. When all the media is still in town, when all the players are probably, or at least the main people you need, especially your GM, your head coach, like you're saying, for the whole press conference, when everyone is still in town. I mean, heck, Dubas did a press conference, so we know Pittsburgh media was in town. Yeah. Um, why not go, or at least maybe do it the second day? July 2nd. Hey, by the way, through all the muck of signing guys to one and two-year deals, and that's it. Details for, go check out the website. Um, here's Sydney Crosby, everybody. Come on back tomorrow. Like, make the drive up 79 or whatever highway it is. I get the highways wrong all the time. Drive back up to Cranberry. We'll do one more press conference. We can talk to Sid. If there were no issues like that, then why not do it then? Because, again, no matter what any insider says, the longer this goes on, the more speculation will come up. That's just the way it is. If you want to avoid speculation, you sign them early, you get it done with. I don't think the Penguins care about speculation. Neither does Crosby. Crosby does it. I'm surprised Crosby has a phone. And the other part that you said too, in there, is that this team, something about needing, um, more. I forget what it was exactly. Like, not PR, but this is because the team needs different marketing now than they did two years ago. It doesn't help that they just canned a lot of their marketing team. Well, so there's a lot like the Penguins are in a weird situation. If they want good marketing, they could have knocked that out a while ago and they could have continued to build up the hype. There could have been months of doing this. Um, I just don't see what the difference is. If he's signing it the day before the season starts, like at that point, the tickets are already going to be bought, then July 1st. There's no time that makes no difference in when it happens. It just needs to happen. The longer it waits, the more speculation will arise. Um, and that's just the way I see it. I'm not saying there's hold-ups. I'm not because I don't know. But I feel like if there's not, you could have done this already. You could have had this deal signed and set. You could have. I'm the only thing I'm saying is you have one silver bullet with this Crosby extension. Why use it this early in the off season and let things die down again when you can use it, write it training camp. And then everybody gets to see him right on the ice, getting ready for the season immediately after that. I think that's the best way. I mean, again, that's my brain. Obviously you disagree, which is fine. Let us know in the comments who side you're on. You think this is, this is a marketing tactic by them waiting or do you think this is just, maybe there's some more details to iron out in Crosby's contract. But at the end of the day, I think the thing we all notice and we've been saying this from the very beginning, he's going to sign and it's going to be a multi-year deal. And he's going to be a penguin for the entirety of his National Hockey League career. So that much is certain and that much we don't have to debate about. (upbeat music) - Let's finish off this episode with a little bit of what I like to call fact or fiction. A little tried and true sports radio content here. As we go through three scenarios, Horwatt and I will discuss whether we believe it is fact or fiction, let us know in the comments, your thoughts on these three scenarios. Let's start with this one. Fact or fiction, Horwatt, Brian Rust, will score over 30 goals at least one time in his National Hockey League career. - No fact, I firmly believe he'll do it. He doesn't have many years left to really do it with just age becoming a factor. But I think sooner rather than later, he's absolutely going to hit that number. I mean, for how many times he's come close, it has always felt like just a matter of time. - Yeah, I'm going to go fact as well because, well, if you look at last year and I forgot to run this stat, he was on pace for 37 goals, there it is. 37, not just 30, 37 goals. Again, he missed 20 games and that's why he didn't. He ended up with 28 instead. But I think at his best, we all know that he scores on the pace of a 30 goal score. If he can stay healthy one of these next two seasons, he's surpassing the 30 goal mark. And I think those are, you mentioned, he's running out of time. I think those are the years that he has the best opportunity because two years is going to be a very important timeline for a lot of things in the Penguins organization. And I think that's one of them. So if he's going to do it, he's going to do it in the next two years, but I'll still put my money behind him, I'm going to say fact on that one. Let's move over to the next one. Sydney Crosby, speaking of the devil, will finish his career top five in NHL history in total points, factor fiction, or what? - Also think fact, I really, at this point, we just discussed him signing a possible, having adding three more years to his career. That would give him four more years. And who knows if he wants to play after that? As long as that production stays steady and doesn't decline to harsh off of a cliff, there's no reason why he shouldn't. Absolutely fact. And not much discussion to have about it. - Yeah, we talked about the 2022 off season earlier in our discussion about Crosby. That was also the off season that I put together a pacemaker or a pace chart for Sydney Crosby to finish his career top five all time. And it was contingent upon him signing a three-year extension. So thankfully, I feel like I might have predicted that one correctly, which means my pace chart can actually continue to go for the next four years, but he needed 90 points in the first and second year. He went 93, 94, so he's already ahead of the pace. For the remainder of his career, if he signs a three-year extension, he would need 60 this year, 50, 50, 50 is last three years. I think that is 100% on the table. If not, finishing above top five, he'd probably finish in the top four. And surprise, I believe it's Ron Francis, who's fourth overall, or Gordy Howe, I'd have to go back and double check. But yeah, I'm gonna say fact as well, because you're telling me that he just needs to go 60, 50, 50, 50 the next four years when he was scoring at a 90-point pace. And honestly, higher than a 90-point pace through most of the last couple of seasons. Yeah, I'm gonna go back Sydney Crosby on that one. I'm gonna say fact as well. And especially if he can get point per game for one more season to knock out that record, then that drops the pace a little bit louder, 'cause you're going 60, 50, 50. I mean, let's say he crushes another 82-point season. Yeah. It drops the last, it drops those last three seasons to weigh smaller numbers if he needs to. And 50 still sounds like a reasonable number to hit. And four Sydney Crosby, until it doesn't happen, the pace for him, regardless of what he's trying to do, is point per game. That's it. Yeah. That's his standard. I guess is what I should have said not pace. That's his standard. That's his standard. Yeah. It has his entire career. So let's say if it's 82 for the next four seasons, I don't know the numbers right now, that if that's the standard until it deviates from there, that obviously puts a well in the top five. Yeah, let me look at what that actually would be right now. He has 1,596. If he had 82 the next couple of seasons, like you mentioned, I did multiplication. That was a mistake. All right. We'll start this one over. Yeah, we'll get back to you on that one. But I did mention that Ron Francis was fourth. He's actually fifth. So the pace that I stated would be passing Ron Francis for fifth. He's 52-point shy at that point of Gordy Howe for fourth. And then he's also, at that point, only about 88 points shy of Mark Messier for third. So he would get pretty high up there. And honestly, with the way Conor McDavid's been going, the last couple of seasons, you might need to finish third to make sure that after McDavid's done, you are still up there as a top five guy. Secure in your spot. Yeah. And by the way, if he had 82 points the last four seasons, I did it correctly this time on the calculator. He'd have 1,924 points, which could put him three points ahead of Yarmir Yager for second all time. (laughing) Now, do I expect Sidney Crosby to be a point where game player for the last four years of his career? No, not quite, but that's his pace. That's his standard. That's the standard. That's the standard. And the standard. We live in Pittsburgh. The standard is the standard. The standard is the standard, god damn it. So yeah, we'll see what happens obviously, but as you mentioned, the more he scores this year, the less he's gonna have to score those following years to finish in the top five. So again, the unequivocal fact about this is that this is a fact that he's gonna finish top five all time. Let's finish it off with this question, Horwatt. And this one is gonna probably rile everybody up. The penguins will win another playoff series in the big three era fact or fiction. Well, if you want to continue reading Rob Rossi's stories, one of the last things he discusses is how much longer the core three, the big three have left. He says two years. So, and that makes sense. If you look at the details, if guinea maulkin has two years left on his contract and then wants to likely go play in Russia for at least a season. At that same time, Chris Tang's contract flips from a full no move to a 10 team no trade. That sounds like a pretty easy time to deal a 39 year old in the heyday of his career, looking to a be cashing for one more cup elsewhere especially if the pangs are staring down the barrel of a rebuild. Scenicrods is gonna be here no matter what, we already have the discussion don't need to go back. But that is the tear down of the big three. Maybe Carlson's still here, but he's not really part of the core. That has been here forever. It's just kind of one of the big names and the superstars. Yeah. So they got two years to do it. It's what it sounds like. Especially if you look at the signings Dubas made this year, this summer. No one's over two seasons, no one. It's all been one or two year deals. The ELCs are different, that is building for the future. Can they do it in these last two years? I want to say fact, I really do. This team and those three specifically are driven to do something special for one last run. They're driven to be a dominant force for the rest of their careers. And the team may have gotten marginally better if they can organize the goal tending situation and if Ryan Graves can find some stability, they can have a good chance of securing a playoff spot again and maybe just getting hot at the right time. I'm going to go fact and just pray and hope. You said a couple of ifs there. The one, if you didn't mention is if the power play figures itself out. That's a big one. That's a big one. Making it to the playoffs is one thing. Winning a playoff round as we know is another. Something they haven't done since 2018. They haven't made the playoffs in the past two years. They got two years to turn this ship around and they're also in a point where the general manager is not going to dish out heavy paydays to bring in some extra help during the season. They could do it. I'm not ruling it out because I'm not counting out that Sydney Crosby does some unbelievable things and just wills them forward to a playoff series victory. He almost did it in 2022 against the New York Rangers and we all know what happened with that. Thank you to Jacob Truba. But I'm not going to say that they definitively will. So I'm going to go fiction on this one. If it's either or I'm leaning towards fiction because this is not something they've done in the past seven years. They haven't made the playoffs the last two years and like you mentioned, they are marginally better on paper going into next season than they were this past season. But still with chamois, last two seasons. Yeah, they've missed the playoffs but it's been by a game or two, a couple of games. Yeah, they would just need that extra jump to get in there and I mean, they certainly would have put up a better fight against the Rangers than the capitals. Hey, if you ask Brian Russ, they would have beat him. Yeah, if you ask Brian and listen, I love that from Brian Russ but I'm not Brian Russ. I don't need to put out confidence because I'm the guy that's on the ice. I think they would have done better. Like you said, and we had this conversation a couple months ago, but would they have beaten the New York Rangers in the first round last year? Again, it's a lot of revisionist history. That's a lot of ifs because the Penguins were red hot down the stretch. They were starting to figure things out but the New York Rangers were also the president's trophy winners. They were also a team that wiped the floor with the Washington Capitals who were right around what the Penguins were at the end of the season. Again, it's hard to know definitively. We'll never know definitively but if I'm saying fact or fiction they will win a playoff series. Essentially in the next two years, again, the betting man in me says it's gonna be fiction. I hate to do it. I'd prefer to say, yeah, fact 100% and I do think there's a chance they do but I'm gonna go fiction. Like I said, I said fact and just barely it. I said fact through good a teeth almost. I mean, it's just me hoping to see that one last glorious run from these three. - Yeah, it's sad that we're reducing that to a glorious run being a playoff series victory and not a run towards the Stanley Cup. - Well, it could be. - That's what the expectations have been lowered to because of their performance over the last. Honestly, let's go through six years because they've had better teams, you know, in 2020, whatever they got embarrassed by the Canadians in the bubble. 2021, when they got embarrassed by the Islanders, even though they were the better team in that series, they just didn't have any gold tending. 2022, they outplayed the Rangers but blew a three to one series lead because Spicy Pork and Broccoli turned into exactly what you expected him to be and then he threw out Tristan Jari on a broken foot and that didn't go well in game seven and in the last two years, you've missed the playoffs. So that's where the expectations have been lowered to but at the same time, you look at the talent that's on this team, especially the top tier talent, specifically just the top tier talent. Those are guys that can carry teams. They've done it in their career. They did it last year at the end of the season. Maybe they can do it. If they squeak in, like you said, anything is possible but, you know, safe money is on fiction on this one. Let us know in the comments section what you think on all three of these. You know, Brian Rust will score over 30 at some point. Sydney Crosby finishes top five and scoring. Penguins win another playoff series in the big three era. Let us know factor fiction in the comments below. But that's gonna do it for this episode of the tip of the iceberg. Thank you guys so much for tuning into this one. Remember, you can find us on YouTube at tip of the iceberg or anywhere. You get your podcast from, have a great weekend, Penn's fans. We'll see you next time. (upbeat music) (upbeat music)
