In this episode of "On the Road with Paul Ward," Paul delves into the Ventura County Real Estate Market and its pricing trends over the past few years. He starts by presenting staggering statistics about the average cost of housing in Ventura County. Paul then discusses interest rates and compares the price per square foot of homes in Oxnard (Ventura County) versus Marina Del Rey (LA County). He offers insights into why people have been moving to Ventura County recently. Referencing an economic report from Cal Lutheran University and charts from an article in The VC Star, Paul provides data on GDP growth, the salary-to-rent ratio, and population growth. He also reveals where people are relocating when they leave Ventura County and shares his experiences about why many are moving to Ventura County from LA County. Lastly, Paul discusses the number of new homes built in Ventura County over the past year and how these factors are contributing to the persistently high housing prices in the area.
Watch the full episode HERE:
0:00 Introduction of topic: The Ventura County Real Estate Market and Pricing over the last few years
0:05 Paul gives us some staggering statistics about the average cost of housing in Ventura County
1:07 Paul discusses interest rates and compares the price per square foot of a home in Oxnard (Ventura County) vs. Marina Del Rey (LA County)
2:38 Some of Paul’s thoughts on why people moved to Ventura County during the last few years
4:23 Cal Lutheran University is referenced for the economic report for Ventura County and provides charts from an article in The VC Star for GDP Growth, The Salary to Rent Ratio and Population Growth
6:20 Find out where people are moving when they leave Ventura County
6:51 Based on his experience, Paul shares that people moving TO Ventura County are coming from LA County and shares his thoughts as to why
7:53 We learn about the number of new homes being built in Ventura County over the last year or so and how all these factors are contributing to the housing prices still being so high in Ventura County
9:19 A special thank you to our sponsor: Opus Escrow
Related Episodes:
Construction Your Home Buying Path
Appraisal Anomalies: Situations You Never Saw Coming
How to reach Paul:
paul@homeandranchteam.com
805-479-5004
Check out our featured listings as well as other properties for sale in the area:
Homeandranchteam.com
Have ideas for future episodes? We'd love to answer your questions - leave a comment! For any home buying or home selling needs in the Ventura County area of California, please reach out to Paul@HomeAndRanchTeam.com or visit www.HomeAndRanchTeam.com
A special THANK YOU to our sponsor! Farm Talk with Paul Ward would not be possible without the support of our sponsor Opus Escrow. Supporting our sponsor ensures Farm Talk can provide listeners with the best possible episodes.
(upbeat music) Hey friends, it's Paul Ward here and I just wanted to share with you some insights that I had on the local Ventura County real estate market that I thought you might find interesting. Since COVID, prices have jumped dramatically. The average price of a home in Ventura County is now $900,000 and rents start at about $2,500. $2,500 per month, unless you wanna rent a room from somebody. You can save some money if you're renting a room, but rents basically start at $2,500 per month. Take a look at this graph that was put out by the local MLS and you'll see that the average price of a home, this is for 2,000 square feet or less, average price of a home in Ventura County, 2,000 feet or less is 650. But what I find interesting is that this is actually higher than it was in 2002 when interest rates were about a third of what they are now. You would think that with interest rates now at 6.5% that prices would be lower than they were in 2002 when interest rates were as low as 2.5%. So it's pretty surprising that home prices have steadily risen with some various dips, of course, but are now higher than they were in 2002 when interest rates were in the twos, now interest rates are in the mid sixes. Take a look at this chart showing the average home price in Oxnard, okay, this is actually for homes 2,000 square feet or less, average price 591 per square foot, that's asking, median price 558 per square foot. And then on properties that have closed in the last six months, average price per square foot is 536, median is 502. Now compare that to a town in LA County, Marina Del Rey, high rent district, but also on the beach, just like Oxnard, this is for homes below 2,000 square feet, 873 per square foot, this is active properties, 873 active average price per square foot, median 840 per square foot. Interesting, compare that to Oxnard at median 558. So $300 more per square foot in Marina Del Rey. As a realtor with many years of experience, when COVID came, there was a big rush to move and have space between neighbors, right? There was the fear of COVID itself and everybody wanted to spread out, have no neighbors, homeschool their kids, have groceries delivered. And so there was a flood of properties, excuse me, a flood of people wanting to move to Ventura County out of Los Angeles County. The second thing that I found interesting was the boss man said, hey, don't come to the office, work from home, right? So I could live anywhere, people could live anywhere. Why not move to Ventura County where you're gonna save $300 per square foot on your purchase price? And then the third thing was the incredibly low interest rates. Everybody felt that they had to buy because they were never gonna have that opportunity again to purchase with interest rates in the 2% range, which of course is true, that interest rate is long gone. And if you think about it, Los Angeles County has about 25% of the entire state's population. If there's 40 million people in California, 10 million people live in LA County. And with prices being significantly lower in Ventura County than LA County, and the boss man saying, hey, work from home, where do those people wanna go? They wanna go to Ventura County. So that, in my opinion, it partially explains the reason for prices not having dropped because in the LA County buyer's mind, if they're moving to Ventura County, they're saving so much on their purchase price that the fact that interest rates are so much higher really doesn't matter. Now, every year, or every couple years, Cal Lutheran University puts out an economic report, which I always find very interesting. It talks about the local economy specific to Ventura County where Cal Lutheran University is located. And there's some interesting charts in this year's report, a little bit dated right now, but still relevant. So GDP in Ventura County is essentially flat. It's actually down for 2024. It's supposed to be negative 0.1. Ventura County has a shrinking economy compared to the United States, which is expected to be about 2% overall nationwide. So Ventura County's economy is somewhat depressed when compared to the nation. Another interesting chart in here is apartment costs continue to go up relative to salaries. So if you look at the yellow line, rents are going up while salaries are stagnating. And interesting also, they're saying in this report that wages in Ventura County are heavy in the 50,000 per year range, $50,000 per year is kind of a typical salary locally. Only about 5% of the homes out there are relatively affordable to folks making $150,000 or more. So there's a real lack of affordability. Now, of course, this leads to another big factor is population growth, or we could say here locally, population shrinkage. So actually in 2024 and 2025, Ventura County's population is expected to shrink by a little less than 1%, but still expected to shrink because homes are not affordable. And where are those folks moving that are making between 51,000 and 199? They're moving to Texas, they're moving to Tennessee, they're moving to Arizona, they're moving to Nevada. So with housing being unaffordable and folks that are just kind of starting out and wanting to buy a home, start a family, they're moving primarily out of state. Now, some folks of course are staying, but there are actually more people leaving that are here now than are staying. And in my experience, the people that are buying right now are Los Angeles County people, okay? They're coming up because in their mind, they're saving, right? If I'm gonna spend $850 a square foot in Marina Del Rey and I can buy in Oxnard for $550 a square foot, I'm saving, right? Just talked to a gentleman last week who just sold his house in Los Felis area of Los Angeles, 1.2 million and bought a house in Camarillo for $715,000 and didn't blink, didn't bat an eye because he's saving half a million dollars on his purchase price. So he gave the seller what he wanted. Again, you would think with interest rates being where they are right now compared to COVID that prices would come down, but no, because the LA buyer is moving up here. The other interesting chart I found in the Cal Lutheran report was about housing starts, okay? So what is the number of homes that are being built compared to the demand? Well, last year there were about 1,500 housing permits issued to keep pace with demand. They would need a minimum of 5,000 housing starts and really to bring the prices down in Ventura County, you would be needing to build about 30,000 homes per year, which I found to be a staggering number. So check out the chart that shows housing starts. So nowhere near does the supply meet the demand? So we're gonna continue to have a housing shortage. Prices are gonna continue to stay high in our region. Yes, there might be a little bit of a dip here and there, which, you know, but that's gonna be limited. Any dip is really gonna benefit a very small percentage of the buying public. And then of course, when interest rates do come down, what will happen is the demand will surge even more and we'll have more bidding wars. So there will be, you know, five, 10 offers on every property once interest rates do drop. So anyway, just a little bit of food for thought. I thought that was interesting. I wanted to share that with you. Certainly reach out, call, text, email, if you have any questions or comments. (upbeat music) (upbeat music)
