TNT Radio guest host Basil Valentine speaks with historian and researcher from Sweden Mats Nilsson, to discuss Zelensky’s intention to have Russia “at the table” for the next peace summit in November and the biggest prisoner exchange between Russia and the West since the Cold War. The U.S. military is not ready for a hot war with Russia and its allies and Mats describes this historic Russia-U.S. prisoner swap in Ankara, as an opportunity for the U.S. to reintroduce diplomacy at the centre of the chessboard. Mats also discusses his experience in the Middle East, after having lived in Israel and in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, where he concluded years ago that Israel was its worst enemy.
More from Mats: X/Twitter
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Today's news talk radio T and T and welcome back to the Patrick Hemings to show with me Basil Valentine guest hosting poor Patrick today Thursday the 1st of August I'll be seeing him at the weekend I will pass on all your good wishes I'm delighted to say I'm joined on the line now by one of the wisest men in Scandinavia the author all around good egg and geopolitical analyst Matt Nielsen welcome to the program Matt's thank you Basil you flatter me but I'll allow it for I'll allow it for this time around we haven't spoken for a while a lot of water under the bridge in the last few weeks we had of course Victor Orban's freestyle peace mission to Beijing Ukraine Moscow he's agreed now to put that on ice after European leaders sort of threatened to completely ostracize him but at the same time Zelensky is now saying he was the Russians to have a seat at the next round of peace talks not that there have been any meaningful discussions so far so please try and make sense for our viewers what the latest is with respect to Ukraine the f-16s have arrived of course is Zelensky hoping to negotiate now from a position of greater strength and force the Russians hand or is he finally going to be realistic and realize that this can't go on forever and the sooner the killing stops the better no I'm afraid realism isn't really part of Zelensky's vocabulary and hasn't been for some time now or at least not by any chance his handlers are not to dealing with realism if they had things would have been much better I think Zelensky's talk about including Russia is more or less one of these public perception games that's being played by Ukraine and the Ukrainian leadership in some kind of day in attempt to lure Russia into a false sense of security which obviously they're not going to fall for so one can only speculate is pondering to a western audience the way I see it considering the new all the new shiny weapons that are being delivered to Ukraine I'm more along those arguing for the fact that Ukraine is preparing for a concentrated attack along with the lines with the suffrage nuclear power plant and somewhere in the southern area of the conflict I don't see any viable situation where one Zelensky would risk starting to talk about giving up a territory to Russia to putting this to a referendum which would be obviously in the best of cases the political death of Zelensky in the worst of cases the real death of Zelensky due to disgruntled former soldiers and thirdly there is no way that Russia right now is willing to backtrack and say oh let bygones be bygones you know we could have made a amicable piece two years ago but let's just forget about the two years and we'll go back to discussing where we were in 2021 it's it's not it's not going to happen it's not going to fly Russia have already declared that we're we're heading onwards for as long as we deem necessary until we see that we have the security under this form of Russian Monro doctrine that we need so all Zelensky's talk about including Russian negotiations is is just that it's just talk just hot air and one of those things politicians do these days in the west trying to ponder to a western audience in order to gain gain a foothold and gain sympathy so no I'm afraid I wouldn't deem it as credible Joe Biden's on his way out of course and as presidents often do towards the end of their tenure they look for a few good news stories and quite a bit is being made in western media of the prisoner exchange between Russia and the west that's seen Evan Goshkovich and others freed in quite a major prisoner swap I asked optimists to see this as possibly the first signs of a thaw in relations between Russia and the west I would go that far it's it was an opportunity that both sides deemed advantageous to to each of the involved parties now the main good thing about this and this is something that I really want to emphasize as being the legal historian and story that I have this groups one one point which is very very important for the coming months and years ahead the west and Russia must obviously still have lines of communication open this deal would not have been made possible unless I believe somehow Turkey was involved in mediating this arrangement I haven't gotten down to the finer details of it as of yet but obviously there is mediation and somehow the channels somewhere are still open and as long as these channels exist actually as long as Russia and the west can make these arrangements it gives me hope that they can also make arrangements in future to de-escalate before we reach that final horrid tipping point where everything goes kaboom for one final final time so I'm very happy I'm very happy for all the involved prisoners I'm very happy for you know all their families involved in this but I'm also very happy for you and I and my own children because it proves that there is diplomacy and negotiations still work so that's that's my main take on this prisoner exchange story that happened indeed the exchange took place at Ankara airport in Turkey earlier this afternoon and what is worth Joe Biden called the deal a feat of diplomacy and he's also vowed that he will not stop working until every American wrongfully detained or held hostage around the world is reunited with their family if only he was prepared to put the same pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war in Palestine will come to that after the break but it's not often we hear anybody talking about a feat of diplomacy these days diplomacy is equated with appeasement and anybody will talk wanting to talk to the other side is wanting to do a deal with the devil so but yes in that respect this is definitely a step it in the right direction the German government has said it's spokesperson did not take this decision lightly and the state's interested in carrying out the prison sentences of a convicted war criminal was weighed against the freedom physical well-being and in some cases ultimately the lives of innocent people so a brief shard of enlightenment seems to have broken through from the broken through the clouds of ignorance and hatred that spoil the diplomatic landscape these days maths yes and very very much so and also I think that America realizes that they need the ability to use diplomacy because the United States its industry its decision-making basically the United States military is right now in this very day unprepared for a war that could kick off with with Russia and China and Iran and perhaps grow from there because I mean America the US military even after I mean 20 years of huge investments won't be able to uphold a global conflict it's it's just you have all these new areas you have the drones you have the space and the cyber warfare you have the hackers you have the computer attacks that will come and where chaos could be quickly created on America's home turf so the Pentagon knows that all these weapon purchases that they have been making during the last decades are already outdated I mean that America needs to start funding defense innovation units which they obviously haven't so I think as well people in Washington there are I mean there are realistic military men in Washington and even within the Pentagon are probably trying to hold back the politicians that are baying for blood due to the fact that they know a modern global war scenario isn't something that America right now could handle of course they always have nukes but still no one wants to go there and if you you know put the nuclear option off the table then America is woefully an apt to to deal with this kind of war so Biden or whoever is in charge blinkin or or anyone else probably some will realize is that getting diplomacy somehow back on the chessboard is a strategic move and it's a move that's much needed for American society because it would quickly collapse if the stranger or the stranger of a global war were to impact the American society today you're not kidding Max we've got to take a very short break now when we come back I'll be asking whether the election of Donald Trump might make a difference and also of course the mad dog amongst the nations of the world at the moment Israel determined it seems to kill as many people as possible on all its borders will be right back after the short break we don't rock rock we talk today's news talk d and t radio the deal that made this possible was a feat of diplomacy and friendship said Joe Biden for anyone who questions whether allies matter Biden said today is a powerful example of why it's vital to have friends in this world our alliances make our people safer he said oh this is a very different tone from the outgoing president it sounds more like his chief rival Donald Trump who said he will end the war in Ukraine possibly before even getting into the oval office while he's still president-elect am I being overly optimistic Max when I say that the jungle drums seem to be finally beating in the direction of peace at least where Ukraine is concerned if not the Middle East yes yes Basil you're being overly optimistic there is there is it's I mean it's not it's not something I say with any amount of joy but the difference in foreign policy between Trump and Biden in the White House will be marginal at best Trump perhaps will shake a few more hands perhaps he will open a few more channels but even if America even if it does something to alleviate the situation in Ukraine the war match Wowow's of the European Union Poland the Baltic states partly Germany and the Nordic countries they still want to stay involved in Ukraine and they still want to keep the war going as far as I can see so I mean it's it's Trump isn't by any in any sense of the word able to get the sort of Alexander and cut the Gordian and not and as when it comes to the Middle East that Trump may well be even worse for the situation in the Middle East concerning Iran and especially for the situation of the Palestinian people of course as for as for myself if I had been an American citizen god forbid but if we play with with that thought I would have gone and put my vote down for Jill Stein the third party candidate obviously that's not going to happen and she isn't going to be anywhere close to the White House but my point is choosing between Trump and Biden sorry sorry between Trump and and Harris it isn't isn't really that much of a choice it's you're just going to get more of the same but perhaps with a few touches of makeup here and there but the general direction of the American imperial stance on how they want to control the world that's still going to be there Trump isn't going to back off and of course neither is Harris No and neither of them seem to want to place any kind of meaningful restraining leash on the man dog that is Israel and I choose my words carefully in the last 24 36 hours Israel has murdered people in Iran in Lebanon and in the Gaza Strip just today Gaza civil defense says at least 15 people have been killed in a strike on a school sheltering displaced Palestinians meanwhile Hassan Nasrallah the Hezbollah leader has said that war with Israel has entered a new phase after the killings of its commander Fuad Shukur and the Hamas political chief Ismail Hanei you know Israel is completely out of control at the moment you've got protesters objecting yes objecting to trying to storm facilities where soldiers have been arrested for mistreating Palestinians yes the Israeli society has become so sick that they don't like the idea of people who torture being in any way held accountable let alone the soldiers in Gaza the carnage continues Britain's foreign secretary and defense secretary have recently been in Qatar pressing for a ceasefire apparently that's what Kamala Harris said to Netanyahu when he was in Washington last week but the Israelis simply don't care what anybody says or done or does they're determined to press ahead with war on as many fronts as they want safe in the knowledge that if things do turn really ugly and the knuckle dusters go on in the in the fight with Hezbollah the the United States will come to their aid it's the worst situation i can remember that yes this situation has gotten like you said very tense were very quickly and it flares up the Middle East is always on fire and it has been as long as i can remember now having lived in in Israel and Palestine and having worked in the region i have always said since since i experienced Israel firsthand while living there that the only thing that's going to threaten the israeli statehood is Israel itself and by that i mean uh Israel can only be destroyed by Israel and i think the conflict that happened when the military police were going to arrest these nine soldiers it's a much deeper conflict it's it's it's a conflict between the ministry of defense the the gallant sorry the minister of defense gallant and the ministry of national security at ben gill and it's it's a disintegration of the israeli society that's happening right in front of it's us and i would say civil war uh a low intensity civil war is right now likely and uh where you could also see that maybe a fourth or up amongst uh more than that maybe 30 percent of the israeli population uh those who deem themselves still being liberals might actually not want to fight anymore because they don't want to fight for ben gear and and uh the ideology that says it's it's okay not to prosecute soldiers who have raped prisoners so it's uh two ideas two uh ideological ideas who are now at the they are the complete opposite of the israeli political spectrum and these two will come to a head uh shortly so if if you want to force israel to the negotiating table uh i would say that the powers who are or or the people who are occupied the palestinians they should opt for a kind of color revolution within israel they should flame the fans or flame the fan the flames of this uh embitured internal strife within israeli society because once that has gotten too uh difficult to handle israel will be forced to the negotiate tables as long as israel is united as a nation there is basically nothing that can make them go to the negotiating table and start talking about the two state solution but once this happens that israel starts crumbling from within uh where the cancer starts growing in order to save whatever can be saved of the israeli statehood then they will have to start negotiating so so i i'm sticking with my assessment that i made maybe fifteen twenty years ago that uh the thing that will destroy israel eventually is israel and the israelis themselves no external force will force them to negotiate tables but the internals perhaps even a civil war will take them to the negotiating table karim back dc is an associate professor at the american university of bayroot and he told al-jazeera that israel is pursuing a strategy essentially to box the united states you into a position or firm support for israeli regardless of what it does and that's certainly the evidence we had from that really grotesque spectacle of uh the mass murderer benjamin netinyah who being cheered by congress fifty eight standing evations i mean would they have done that to jeffrey dama i i've no idea dama far less dangerous individual than the homicidal psychopath netinyah who um kari mac dc says i think they israel are out of control in the sense that they're trying to create a situation in the region in which they remain in charge of what's going on in which they are able to create all sorts of violence assassinated will blow up civilly and infrastructure at will continue the genocide in gaza take on iran lebanon iraq and yo naman and other countries in the region and not necessarily understand what the repercussions are going to be he said i do think there is a strategy there i think the strategy especially with netinyah who just have income from the u_s is to try to create this kind of atmosphere in the region in order to draw the americans in and in order to scupper any kind of ceasefire storms certainly if you assassinate the leader of the political wing of the organization with whom you're supposed to be negotiating a ceasefire uh you can't really be acting in good faith that britain never assassinated jerry adams or martin mcclochlan even at the height of the troubles in northern ireland um i think he's absolutely right it seems israel is uh testing the united states uh behaving in the most egregious ways possible um but knowing that it's got this full court press on congress through apak and the borton paid for representatives on capital hill it's not a pretty picture man's no no of course not and it never has been uh but uh the thing and like i said the thing is that american america politicians are going to stand behind israel all the way but if israel suddenly becomes two states one the state of israel that americans can somewhat understand and the other the state of udia where you have these diapart nationalist colonialists individuals who want to eradicate all palestinians then perhaps america will have to back off but never before well unfortunately some people might pump out and uh other republicans support those lunatic settlers they have no god for internet law as nicholas somes said in the house of lords last week if we lose what we have left of international law would be in a very very dark place matt's nilsen isn't an adult place at all uh he's in sweden in the summer it's great you can join us today matt's thank you thank you very much buzz all [BLANK_AUDIO]
